20030447 Ver 1_DEIS Economic Assessment_20070116

FW: Uncertainties in the DEIS economic assessment raised by conflic...
Subject: FW: Uncertainties in the DEIS economic assessment raised by conflicting statements of
phosphate rock costs need to be resloved. (UNCLASSIFIED)
From: "Walker, William T SAW" <[e-mail]>
Date: Tue, 16 Jan 2007 16:00:46 -0500
To: "David Cox" <[e-mail]>, "Derb Carter" <[e-mail]>, "George House"
<[e-mail]>, "Lamson, Brooke SAW" <[e-mail]>,
"Richard Atwood" <[e-mail]>, "Finch, Robert A SAW"
<[e-mail]>, "Becky Fox" <[e-mail]>, "Bill Schimming"
<[e-mail]>, "Cyndi Karoly" <[e-mail]>, "David M SAW
Lekson \(E-mail\)" <[e-mail]>, "David McNaught"
<[e-mail]>, "David Moye" <[e-mail]>, "Heather Jacobs"
<[e-mail]>, "Jeff Furness" <[e-mail]>., "Jerry Waters"
<[e-mail]>, "Jim Hudgens" <[e-mail]>, "Jimmie Overton"
<[e-mail]>, "John Dorney" <[e-mail]>, "Julia Berger"
<[e-mail]>, "Kyle Barnes" <[e-mail]>, "Maria Tripp"
<[e-mail]>, "Mary Alsentzer" <[e-mail]>, "Mike Wicker"
<[e-mail]>, "Richard Peed" <[e-mail]>, "Ross Smith"
<[e-mail]>, "Sam Cooper" <[e-mail]>, "Scott SAW Jones \(E-mail\)"
<[e-mail]>, "Sean McKenna" <[e-mail]>, "smtp-Sechler,
Ron" <[e-mail]>, "Ted Tyndall" <[e-mail]>, "Terry Moore"
<[e-mail]>
Mike,
The Corps does not agree that the economic analysis in section 2.7
contains misleading or conflicting statements nor that it asserts anything
contrary to the information referenced. The Corps stated both at the meeting
and in the document, that in order to ascertain some estimate of what
constitutes a "reasonable" cost increase, we compared the cost of the various
alternatives (both average and year-by-year), we looked at historic cost
incurred by the company weighed against economic performance during the same
time frame, and we compared mining cost incurred or estimated by the company
to national average cost of phosphate rock as reported by USGS.
While PCS' recent historic mining costs were examined in our
decision, they were not the sole measure by which the economic practicability
of an alternative was gauged and they certainly were not used as an absolute
cutoff for economic practicability. The Corps agreed with the applicant's
determination of economic impracticability on only 3 of 10 alternatives (No
Action, S33AP and DL1B). It is true that these 3 alternatives have higher
average yearly mining cost than that reported for the 2000 - 2005 period.
However, if you review the cost information provided in appendix D, you will
find that 4 of the alternatives on which the Corps did not agree with the
applicants determination of economic impracticability (SCRA, SCRB, SJAA and
SJAB) also have higher average yearly mining costs than the 2000 - 2005
period.
There are variations in the reported historic cost data that you find
"misleading". I would assert that these variations are not misleading but
demonstrate one of the very basic premises of the cost analysis; mining
expense varies with location and, in general, increases with distance from
the processing facility. Please remember that during the 2000 - 2003 period,
PCS was mining at the extreme southern end of Alt. E. (The current permit
area). During 2004, they moved into the NCPC tract which moves the mining
operation progressively closer to the processing facility. It has further
been established that the richest phosphate reserves (both in amount and
quality), lie under the NCPC tract meaning that as mining operations have
moved northward recovery of ore per unit effort has increased. It logically
1 of 3 1/16/2007 4:14 PM
FW: Uncertainties in the DEIS economic assessment raised by conflic... f
follows that the overall cost of mining has steadily declined. This is
reflected in the cost model predicted mining cost for years -6 through 0 (the
remainder of the current permit area) which averages around $20.56/ton.
The statement regarding comparison of historic costs and historic averages
that you reference from page 2-17 of the DEIS is correct and, when read in
context, further supports the premise that mining costs decrease with
increased ore quality and decreased materials transport distance. Table 2-6
provides the direct comparison and demonstrates that mining costs were
highest in 2001 - 2002 and have steadily decreased as mining moved into NCPC.
The DEIS does note that in some years rock costs were above average but it
does not assert or imply that these higher cost are not sustainable. In
fact, the DEIS states in Section 2.7.4 "Although PCS did experience a
reduction in operating income during this time period, it did continue
operations, suggesting that it can successfully operate during short periods
(3 - 4 years) of above average mining costs and poor market conditions."
The practicability decisions made in the DEIS are based in part on a review
of performance over the last few years. Data provided in the DEIS
demonstrates that the last few years have seen a range of high to low mining
costs. The DEIS explains that while the company did see a marked decrease in
operating income (even a loss in one year) during the period of higher mining
costs, it's operating income has trended upward in the last couple of years
as both the mining costs and the DAP market have improved.
I don't believe anyone would debate that mining costs are lowest on the NCPC
tract, and that the Aurora operation experiencing lower mining costs and
higher profits than they were 3 years ago. I believe that is why the
applicant wishes to continue mining there. The industry overview from Potash
Corp that you reference in your e-mail suggests this with the statement you
quote as well as the statement "Our rock costs have been gradually decreasing
as we draw more from our best ore zone, which is closer to our facility'! And
the supporting graphic found on page 61 of that document. Potash Corps also
supports this on page 10 of it's 2005 Annual Report with the graphic titled
"Lower Rock Costs Create Competitive Advantage" and the underlying caption
stating "Now that we are mining from the low-cost NCPC reserve near our
Aurora facility, we have reduced our rock costs...". The DEIS does not
assert anything contrary to this.
In determining economic practicability, the decision is not as simple as
comparing current operating income to predicted future cost. This would
first require the Corps to determine an "acceptable profit" and the Preamble
the 404(b)(1) guidelines indicates that practicability decisions should be
based on what is reasonable in terms of the overall scope/cost of the
proposed project and not on a particular applicants financial standing or
investment or market share. It is reasonable to explore areas and/or plans
with mining costs higher than those the company is currently experiencing and
we have done that. However, the fact that PCS is now in an area of lower
mining costs and is enjoying higher profit does not necessarily mean that it
can move to another location with higher associated mining cost and
experience economic success.
I hope that the above explanation addresses your concerns. Please feel free
to call or e-mail if you have any further questions.
Thanks
Tom Walker
-----Original Message-----
From: Mike [e-mail] [mailto:Mike [e-mail]]
Sent: Thursday, January 11, 2007 3:36 PM
To: Finch, Robert A SAW; Becky Fox; Bill Schimming; Cyndi Karoly; Lekson,
David M SAW; David McNaught; David Moye; Heather Jacobs; Jeff Furness; Jerry
Waters; Jim Hudgens; Jimmie Overton; John Dorney; Julia Berger; Kyle Barnes;
Maria Tripp; Mary Alsentzer; Mike Wicker; Richard Peed; Ross Smith; Sam
Cooper; Jones, Scott SAW; Sean McKenna; smtp-Sechler, Ron; Ted Tyndall; Terry
Moore; David Cox; Derb Carter; George House; Lamson, Brooke SAW; Richard
2 of 3 1/16/2007 4:14 PM
FW: Uncertainties in the DEIS economic assessment raised by conflic...
Atwood" <[e-mail]>"Walker, William T SAW
Subject: Uncertainties in the DEIS economic assessment raised by conflicting
statements of phosphate rock costs need to be resloved.
I asked yesterday at the PCS review.team meeting what was the threshold of
practicability used by the COE. I understood the answer to be as follows:
If an Alternative has a cost of rock that exceeded a recent historical
average for the mine it was considered not practicable and essentially
dismissed from further consideration.
Based on the following information contained in the DEIS the economic
approach taken by the COE is reasonable, however, the information in the DEIS
appears to be misleading, thus raising questions about the conclusions of the
practicability analysis (which ultimately dismisses the least environmentally
damaging alternative).
On page 2-17 2nd paragrah is the statement PCS's Aurora rock production costs
exceeded both the USGS and TFI price/cost for all years except 2004.
That and other information in the DEIS give the impression that rock costs
are relatively high and have questionable sustainability.
Contrary to assertions in the DEIS, PCS literature, referencing a very
respected source notes that, "when Aurora and White Springs are operating at
capacity, they have rock costs that are ranked among the lowest in the world
by industry standards. Fewer than five other facilities around the world are
rated in this category" (see page 53 in the following link under World
Competitive Phosphate Rock Costs
http://www.potashcorp.com/media/pdf/investor relations/industry overview/2006
/phosphate.pdf
If the last few years have been high cost years for the mine to acquire
phospahte rock (above average, barely sustainable as is the impression given
by PCS in the DEIS and at our review team meetings) than it is reasonable to
assume higher costs may be not practicable. However if the last few years
have been years where the cost of phosphate rock was extremely low as is
clearly indicated in PCS literature, higher costs may in fact be sustainable
and practicable.
Uncertainties in the economic assessment raised by these conflicting
statements of phosphate rock costs should be resolved to assure the integrity
of the alternatives analysis in the DEIS.
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE
3 of 3 1/16/2007 4:14 PM
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