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Home My WebLink About2018-09-26_R-2577 LUSA Narrative Report FINALoF NOBiM C�4 h � �`'ti 9 * * a z 0 ��Hf OFT9ANSe��`P STIP # R-2577 Forsyth/Guilford Counties NCDOT land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report September, 2018 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report Table of Contents TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 1.0 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................3 Summary of Study, Time Horizon, and Notable Features .........................................................................4 Summary of Growth Trends Occurring and Expected, Development Regulations ...................................4 IndirectEffects Matrix ...............................................................................................................................4 Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix .....................................................................................................4 Indirect and Cumulative Effects Summary ................................................................................................5 2.0 Project Initiation .....................................................................................................................6 2.1 Pertinent Land Use and Transportation Plans ..............................................................................6 2.2 Project Stakeholders .....................................................................................................................8 2.3 Future Land Use Study Area ..........................................................................................................9 3.0 Base Screening ......................................................................................................................11 3.1 Project Overview .........................................................................................................................11 3.2 Time Horizon ...............................................................................................................................12 3.3 Other Transportation, Infrastructure, and Active Development Projects in the FLUSA .............12 3.4 Population Trends and Projections .............................................................................................15 3.5 Employment Trends and Projections ..........................................................................................15 3.6 Notable Human Environmental Features ...................................................................................16 3.6.1 Land Use ..............................................................................................................................16 3.6.2 Community Resources ........................................................................................................19 3.6.3 Voluntary Agricultural Districts (VAD) and Enhanced Voluntary Agricultural Districts (EVAD) .............................................................................................................................................20 3.7 Notable Natural Environmental Features ...................................................................................25 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 AnalyticalScreening ..............................................................................................................27 Scopeof the Project .................................................................................................................... 27 TravelTime Savings ..................................................................................................................... 27 Water and Sewer Availability ...................................................................................................... 28 AvailableLand .............................................................................................................................30 Marketfor Development ............................................................................................................32 PublicPolicy ................................................................................................................................32 5.0 Indirect Effects Matrix ...........................................................................................................33 6.0 Probable Development Areas ................................................................................................35 6.1 Existing Conditions ......................................................................................................................37 6.1.1 PDA 1— Old Belews Creek Road Special Land Use Condition Area .....................................37 6.1.2 PDA 2— Old Belews Creek Road Activity Center .................................................................39 6.1.3 PDA 3— US 158/NC 66 Activity Center ................................................................................42 7.0 Evaluation of Scenarios ................................................................. 7.1 Scope of Development ..................................................................... 7.2 Development Intensity ..................................................................... 7.3 Future Shift of Regional Population Growth .................................... 7.4 Future Shift of Regional Employment Growth ................................. .....................................45 ........................................ 45 ........................................ 45 ........................................ 46 ........................................ 46 Executive Summary Page 1 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 7.5 Pressure for Land Development Outside of Regulated Areas ....................................................46 7.6 Planned/Managed Land Use and Impacts ..................................................................................46 8.0 Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix ...................................................................................47 9.0 Indirect and Cumulative Effects Assessment ..........................................................................49 Sources............................................................................................................................................50 Tables Table 1: Project characteristics .....................................................................................................................3 Table 2: Summary of pertinent land use and transportation plans ..............................................................8 Table 3: Project stakeholders ........................................................................................................................8 Table 4: NCDOT recommendations for Sections A, B, and C ......................................................................12 Table 5: Other transportation and infrastructure projects .........................................................................12 Table 6: County population growth ............................................................................................................15 Table 7: Summary of transportation impact causing activities .................................................................. 27 Table 8: Summary of available Iand ............................................................................................................30 Table 9: Land use summary — PDA 1 ...........................................................................................................37 Table 10: Land use summary — PDA 2 .........................................................................................................40 Table11: Land use summary — PDA 3 .........................................................................................................42 Figures Figure 1: Future land use study area ..........................................................................................................10 Figure 2: Other transportation, infrastructure, and active development projects in the FLUSA ...............14 Figure3: Existing land use ...........................................................................................................................18 Figure 4: Notable community resources .....................................................................................................21 Figure 5: Notable community resources .....................................................................................................22 Figure 6: Notable community resources .....................................................................................................23 Figure 7: Notable community resources .....................................................................................................24 Figure 8: Notable natural environmental features .....................................................................................26 Figure 9: Water and sewer availability ....................................................................................................... 29 Figure10: Available land .............................................................................................................................31 Figure11: Indirect Effects Matrix ...............................................................................................................34 Figure 12: Probable development areas .....................................................................................................36 Figure13: Overview — PDA 1 ....................................................................................................................... 38 Figure14: Overview — PDA 2 .......................................................................................................................41 Figure15: Overview — PDA 3 .......................................................................................................................43 Figure 16: Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix ......................................................................................48 Appendices Appendix A: Interviews Executive Summary Page 2 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 1.0 Executive Summary The North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) proposes to widen approximately 18.8 miles of United States (US) 158 (Reidsville Road) to a multi-lane facility, from the existing multi-lane section north of US 421/I-40 Business in Winston-Salem, Forsyth County, to US 220 in Stokesdale, Guilford County. The proposed project is included in the 2018-2027 State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) as project number R-2577. The project is divided into three sections for funding and construction purposes, sections A, B, and C. R-2577A begins at the multi-lanes north of US 421/I-40 Business in Forsyth County and ends at State Route (SR) 1965 (Belews Creek Road), north of Vance Road in Forsyth County. R-2577B begins at SR 1965 (Belews Creek Road) in Forsyth County and ends just north of SR 2034 (Anthony Road) in Guilford County. R-2577C begins just north of SR 2034 (Anthony Road) in Guilford County and ends at US 220 in Guilford County. US 158 is currently a mostly two-lane, undivided facility with no control-of-access within the majority of the project study area. US 158 is designated as a Rural Principal Arterial and provides a link between I-40 in Winston-Salem and US 220 north of Greensboro. The proposed project would upgrade US 158 to a four-lane, median-divided facility with a combination of no control-of-access and partial control-of- access. The characteristics of the project are shown below in Table 1. NCDOT is recommending an overall "best-fit" widening of US 158 for sections A and B, with widening occurring on the north side of US 158 in segments 1 and 7, and transitional widening in segments 2 through 6. NCDOT is recommending Alternative 3, the northern bypass of Stokesdale, as the recommended alternative for Section C. Table 1: Project characteristics STIP Number: R-2577 Project Location: Forsyth and Guilford Counties Project Type Project Scale ❑ Interchange Modification Length Right-of-Way ❑ Creation of Interchange ❑ Interchange Project � Roadwa Widenin � Project within existing ROW Y g ❑ Roadway Project 0— 2 miles 0 project requires additional ROW � Roadway on New Location ❑ Roadway Project 2— 4 miles � Roadway Project > 4 miles Existing control of access: Proposed control of access: � No Control ❑ No Control ❑ Partial Control ❑ Partial Control ❑ Limited Control � Limited Control ❑ Full Control ❑ Full Control Existing Number of Lanes: 2 Existing Median: No Proposed Number of Lanes: 4 Addition of Median(s): Yes Executive Summary Page 3 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Summary of Study, Time Horizon, and Notable Features A time horizon of 2040 was used for this Land Use Scenario Assessment (LUSA) so as to coincide with the various land use and transportation plans in the FLUSA. These plans include The Legacy 2030 Update, published by the Winston Salem/Forsyth County City-County Planning Board in 2013 and the Greensboro Urban Area MPO's (GUAMPO) 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan, as well as several area plans. Several notable features were identified, including the following: • Four parks • Six schools • 13 churches • Five cemeteries • Five child care or elderly care facilities • Six farms participating in the Voluntary Agricultural District programs offered in their county (five in Forsyth County, one in Guilford County). Summary of Growth Trends Occurring and Expected, Development Regulations Based on data population projection data obtained from North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, the FLUSA is expected to have an annualized population growth rate of 1.1 percent, matching the state as a whole. Employment projection data obtained from the North Carolina Department of Commerce indicates the Piedmont Triad Prosperity Zone, which contains the FLUSA, is anticipated to have a 0.5 percent annualized growth rate in employment. Indirect Effects Matrix The R-2577 Indirect and Cumulative Effects Screening (ICE) (NCDOT, 2012) included a screening matrix which evaluated the potential for indirect effects associated with the project. The matrix indicated a "Likely Indirect Scenario Assessment" to develop land use scenarios to assess build and no-build effects from the project. This report reassesses the screening factors based on updated information. Although there is a large amount of available land in the FLUSA and the proposed improvements will result in 10 minutes of travel time savings, low forecasted employment growth, limited water and sewer availability and robust growth management as a result of local land use policies make the indirect impacts on land use less likely, but merit a land use assessment. Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix The Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix resulted in "Indirect Land Use Impacts Not Likely". The matrix showed that when compared to the No-Build Scenario, the Build Scenario would likely not result in increased or more intense development. The overall growth projections for the FLUSA are relatively low both in terms of population and employment projections. Further, there are fairly stringent land use restrictions along US 158 in the areas identified in this report that may develop differently with or without the construction of the project. These areas are known as Probable Executive Summary Page 4 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Development Areas or PDAs. The two scenarios differed in the results in the Scope of Development category because of decreased travel times associated with the project, and Future Shift of Regional Employment Growth category since planners anticipate induced development in PDA 2 as a result of the project. The two scenarios had the same results in the remaining categories. Indirect and Cumulative Effects Summary The potential for the degradation of water quality also exists through erosion and stream sedimentation. Any direct natural environmental impacts by NCDOT projects would be addressed by avoidance, minimization, and mitigation consistent with programmatic agreements with the natural resource agencies during the merger and permitting processes. Executive Summary Page S Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 2.0 Project Initiation Section 1 discusses the land use and transportation plans pertinent to the project, identifies project stakeholders, and presents the Future Land Use Study Area (FLUSA). 2.1 Pertinent Land Use and Transportation Plans There are several relevant land use and transportation plans within the FLUSA. The Winston Salem Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) developed the 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) in 2015 to provide a vision for future growth and transportation needs. The MTP is a fiscally constrained plan required by the federal government to satisfy federal air quality standards. R-2577 is included in the MTP in the Street and Highway project list as a"regionally significant" project. It is also included in the freight element as a freight transportation improvement project. The Legacy 2030 Update was published by the Winston Salem/Forsyth County City-County Planning Board in 2013 as an update to the 2001 Legacy Plan. The plan is meant to provide a set of goals and priorities for the county to guide planning initiatives. The three themes identified by the plan are fiscal responsibility, sustainable growth, and livable design. Chapter 3 in the Legacy 2030 Update is dedicated to developing a growth management plan for the county and included municipalities. The stated goal is to "manage growth and development to reduce sprawl, create a more compact and balanced urban development pattern, and preserve open space and rural character." The plan also "emphasizes compact development in appropriate locations to accommodate (the) growing population." Objective 1 of the Legacy plan was to establish five Growth Management Areas (GMA) which would be used to "concentrate development within the serviceable land area of Forsyth County with the highest densities at city/town centers, activity centers and along growth corridors." The GMAs would also "reflect current or desired development patterns." United States (US) 158 is not designated as a growth corridor in the plan, and passes through three of the GMAs: GMA 3(Suburban Neighborhoods), GMA 4 (Future Growth Area), and GMA 5(Rural Area). Further discussion of GMAs is in Section 5. Another goal of the plan was to develop small area plans in partnership with the local communities. There are two small area plans within the FLUSA along the US 158 alignment in Forsyth County: The Northeast Suburban Area Plan (2018) is a small area plan that was updated as part of the overall Legacy 2030 update and includes the area around US 158 from approximately Old Greensboro Road NE to Angel Drive. This area is largely developed with single family residential. The plan identifies the area around Old Belews Creek Road and US 158 to be designated as a Special Land Use Condition Area. This recommendation would include a rezoning of residential uses to office or low-intensity commercial uses. Comprehensive development is recommended to limit curb cuts and to promote safe access onto Reidsville Road. R-2577 is discussed in the plan as one of the recommended transportation improvements. Chapter 2.0: Project Initiation Page 6 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report The Walkertown Area Plan Update (2014) covers the area along US 158 from Angel Drive north to Old Flatrock Road. Land use in this area � is largely agricultural and single family residential, with a commercial node at Old Hollow Road. Proposed land uses include � the development of an Activity '� Center at US 158 and NC 66 and in ` the vicinity of Old Belews Creek F� Road. Activity Centers would include a mixture of uses, including � TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties [FC7FZSY'TI-I� City Ckf Winst�n-S.alem ��. ww,. ��. �� ..�� „�� aa. �m e7ok.es v.��i�� Ra co.. �.,�� e�a��eaa„��e��a�,� • k,� • . �awE�,�.s,�� . �� K� � �4tl R�iGinio-�9 � � FOUtla;i� �� , ,�„�,�%,m . H. JOM1i�m G�>�sF�.Nla� � �F . . ue�»��,.� CeflbwB4 M�OUte Hpm P�, � �S/a1tl�''Q ��xN�s f MkPo� Gswz ;�� rn�a" m�ya� � : �,�� commercial, low and intermediate .`` �"� //1''rii�� %%i i � � �i /� i /� / � : densit residential and office uses �%� �%�� %�" ��'�� +' ' y � '4 !f� /, i�/r!,/ sn.� i �o�.�,p vr�a �\, � %Jr %� . � �� l / � � L �ihw 0.1oMla 1'A� P41n with coordinated and rationalized ,;f�� ' i- —��,�--�-_ • i } ;-A � road and driveway access points on B�^^�� .,�„�„� ;�� em,� � eNw� � US 158. �GWn9� I.+ak�� .�� HqiPdnf Nmuvy Witqvtrasl �, . OAVVE � • NNYJ9G�i " . � r Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Planners � �4 ��°�°a° ; : , ��,��a `; _.�� also noted that the wastewater service area `� „��s�� ' � � �, (WWSA) for the county serves as a growth � w�r�w��e�o;s�h��e ��,��a� management boundary. � GraurMwaterRemadia[iomDisrliarge��,�a��o�s��,,, 1 in = 17,4�0 R � Water Oiscfiarge Municipal &oundary �Cl Z��%, the town of Stokesdale developed Winston-Salem/ForsythCountywastewaterservicearea. and adopted the Future Land Use Plan to address recent growth and development. The plan identifies three future land uses for areas around US 158. At the eastern end of the town, future land use is identified as low density residential. As US 158 approaches downtown Stokesdale, the future land use is designated as Town Core which is recognized as "a center of commerce and social activity that will continue to serve the demands of Stokesdale's growing population while maintaining its historical small town appeal". On the east side of downtown, the future land use designation becomes Professional/Manufacturing Corridor, which is "planned to provide an area for the growth of office space and light manufacturing services that is consistent with current uses". The Greensboro Urban Area MPO (GUAMPO) developed the 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (Amended 2017) for its planning area. The plan included a future land use model that allocated population growth in the region based on available land and land suitability. The land use data was used to feed into the region's Travel Demand Model to help prioritize transportation improvements. As with the Winston Salem Urban Area MPO MTP, R-2577 was identified as a"regionally significant" project in the roadway section of the plan. The City of Greensboro developed the Connections 2025 Comprehensive Plan in 2003 to manage future growth. The plan articulates an overall vision for Greensboro in 2025, establishes goals and policies in support of the vision, and lays out a specific action plan defining the steps the City will take to achieve the desired future. Chapter 2.0: Project Initiation Page 7 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties A summary of the pertinent land use plans is found in Table 2. Table 2: Summary of pertinent land use and transportation plans . . :. .. Winston-Salem Urban Area MPO 2040 Forsyth County, portions of 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Davidson, Davie and Stokes counties Plan as well as all the cities, towns and villages within the Metropolitan Area Boundary The Legacy 2030 Update 2030 Winston-Salem, Forsyth County and all its municipalities Northeast Suburban Area Plan 2030 The plan area is generally bounded Update on the north by Old Hollow Road Guilford County (NC 66); on the east by the Winston- Salem city limits; on the south by Business 40/US 421; and on the west by Germanton Road/NC 8 Walkertown Area Plan Update 2030 The area around US 158 from Angel Drive north to Old Flatrock Road Stokesdale Future Land Use Plan 2030 Stokesdale town limits GUAMPO 2040 Metropolitan 2040 The Greensboro Metropolitan Area Transportation Plan including the City of Greensboro, the Towns of Pleasant Garden, Oak Ridge, Sedalia, Stokesdale, Summerfield, and much of unincorporated Guilford County Connections (City of Greensboro's 2025 Greensboro city limits and areas of Comprehensive Plan) unincorporated Guilford County that fall within its water and sewer service area boundary. 2.2 Project Stakeholders Table 3 below contains the names and contact information for project stakeholders. Planning departments providing long range and current planning to the jurisdictions within the FLUSA were identified by planning department directors for having direct knowledge of the study area and development activities. They were either interviewed by telephone or by email, and interview records are located in Appendix A of this report. Table 3: Project stakeholders . . .. Guilford County Oliver Bass obass@guilfordcountync.gov 336-641-3758 Y (Stokesdale) Planning City of Winston- Kirk Ericson kirle@cityofws.org 336-747-7045 Y Salem, Planning Chapter 2.0: Project Initiation Page 8 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 2.3 Future Land Use Study Area The FLUSA, shown in Figure 1, contains areas with the greatest reasonably foreseeable potential for indirect effects from a proposed action, primarily from land use changes and conversions from an undeveloped to a developed state. The FLUSA is typically defined by land parcel boundaries, zoning classifications, geopolitical boundaries, preserved lands, watershed boundaries/topography and other development constraints or influences. For the purposes of this Land Use Scenario Assessment (LUSA) the boundaries of the FLUSA conforms primarily to watershed boundaries (12-digit hydrological unit code or HUC boundaries). An exception is in the northwestern portion of the FLUSA which follows Town Fork Creek in Stokes County. Chapter 2.0: Project Initiation Page 9 Dan ison � 7 ,.\ ' �� Walnu ove ' ; ' � � � � Belewslake ` En�J PCOf@Ct ; King - ; i Stokes County �5 " ►$ �ss �.. � --------------- -------- --- ---------------- ----------- ------ -;--- Forsyth County -------------___._ `��.� -, i _ �_„�A / � � i BJ � : I Wentworth � .. � � ---------- -- � Stokesdale - �-�-=-=--- n � ` `'�" B I C - Rural Hall , .� " - ��"�� Tobaccoville -`' , z2o _ i. .g � , �� ` � �.� �� ; ;/� � Sum erfie 52 I I Start Project �►6 � Oak Ridge ,'�`�'� B � I p` '� i ,50 �Ly I 1 — i ��' alk wn ' � _ � , A w ' - Lewisvi Winston-Sale t� 1 R-2577 Q FLUSA 0 Winston Salem Beltway 421 � Salem J�: Legend Interstate NC Route US Route I �I � Kernersvill� i � �, � � i [� Water Stream/River � 73 0 N � ; eidsville ' I I � ,i� / ; �,_. i - � i - -� �� ; _ ___ Rockingham County ;____________ Guilford C �nty � ; , i Lake j ._ Townsend _�'�_� ~' ,,.�� 7 �. � _, 29 c j l i � � ;�;,�� FLUSA FJr�rfolk reensboro ,.�: ��.�� -T--- �--�-�-,--�__ -,>,,-,,,,--, nG'r�,�ille .; f,�r 1 � 1.., 5�rfo !�5��` � ��`;r`,.i'---=(�� .j1`t, � ;—�ty.i ,�,�i ..,�s j---�._�- � / .6 ",.�q' j ! �\ - - ' �� ` � t ' � i , �l ei.g�i; '�%�' � — � ; �i r�C_ �, y j` .._.J^� -_-�.`�__,1�_—_L1✓�� ' �--i `� 1r' S' �� , �! `�' �'—�`y�..,~d' � 1-'r--��fJ�,ti _�1�^/�..' '�' 'Ci��'�� .-ti iy `\ �' ,�I Graenvill� ___L_�l> ; ` ; 1__ ? 'Y-�., i-J; /�,, - ;_ ._ ` " ,," ', ;; '`-- � �\ 1 � �4�i� �\/r.�_\ ; \ . �: .t'^' � , Columbia �� `� �' +� ''�,- —; FIGURE 1- FUTURE LAND USE STUDY AREA 2 4 8 Miles Date September2018 This map is for reference only. Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. FNORIH�� h � Q�G� y NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT �` � OF TRANSPORTATION ` DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS pP 4��~��OFtRPN��O R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 3.0 Base Screening Chapter 2 provides a project overview, documents the LUSA Time Horizon, and surveys other transportation, infrastructure, and active development projects in the FLUSA. 3.1 Project Overview US 158 is currently a mostly two-lane, undivided facility with no control-of-access. US 158 is designated by NCDOT as a Rural Principal Arterial and provides a link between I-40 in Winston-Salem and US 220 north of Greensboro. The proposed project would upgrade US 158 to a four-lane, median-divided roadway with a combination of no control-of-access and partial control-of-access. US 158 improvements will begin at Old Greensboro Road (State Route [SR] 2357) in Winston-Salem (Forsyth County) and continue to US 220 in Stokesdale (Guilford County) for a total length of approximately 18.8 miles. The project is included in the NC Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) as project number R-2577 and proposes to widen the existing two-lane US 158 roadway to a multi-lane median-divided facility, including a new location section to bypass the existing US 158 alignment in Stokesdale. The R-2577 project is divided into three sections: • Section A begins at Old Greensboro Road in Winston-Salem and extends to Old Belews Creek Road (SR 1965) in Forsyth County; • Section B begins at Old Belews Creek Road (SR 1965) in Forsyth County and extends to Anthony Road (SR 2034) in Stokesdale (Guilford County); • Section C begins at Anthony Road (SR 2034) in Guilford County and extends to the junction of US 158 and US 220 in Stokesdale, including a new location bypass section of existing US 158 through Stokesdale. Right-of-way acquisition and construction for each of the three sections will occur independently. Environmental documentation and permitting for the project will encompass all sections. Section A is programmed in the current adopted 2018-2027 STIP for right-of-way in 2020 and construction in 2022. Section B is currently included in the STIP Developmental Program with right-of-way beginning in 2024 and construction in 2026. Section C of the project is currently unfunded. NCDOT is recommending an overall "best-fit" widening of US 158 for Sections A and B, with widening occurring on the north side of US 158 in segments 1 and 7, and transitional widening in segments 2 through 6. NCDOT is recommending Alternative 3, the northern bypass of Stokesdale, as the recommended alternative for Section C. The project will provide partial control-of-access for most of its length, with no control-of-access provided at the beginning and end of the project. Full control-of-access will be provided at the proposed interchange of the future Winston-Salem Northern Beltway (U-2579) and at the proposed interchange at NC 68 for the new location bypass around Stokesdale (R-2577C). Table 4 shows NCDOT's recommendation for widening along Sections A and B as well as the recommended new location alternative (Alternative 3) in Section C. Chapter 3.0: Base Screening Page 11 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Table 4: NCDOT recommendations for Sections A, B, and C o" . �• •. � • s >-, � . A 1 West of Old Greensboro Road to Darrow Road Northern widening A 2 Darrow Road to NC 66 Transitional widening A&B 3 NC 66 to Flat Rock Road. Transitional widening B 4 Flat Rock Road to Goodwill Church Road Transitional widening B 5 Goodwill Church Road to Peaceful Valley Drive Transitional widening B 6 Peaceful Valley Drive to Coldwater Road Transitional widening B 7 Coldwater Road to Anthony Road Northern widening C n/a Anthony Road to US 220 Alternative 3(North of Stokesdale) 3.2 Time Horizon This report examines the effects of the proposed project on future land use and development patterns through 2040. The Indirect and Cumulative Effects Screening (ICE) (NCDOT, 2012) report used a time horizon of 2035 which was based on the time horizon of the project and transportation and land use plans for two jurisdictions within the FLUSA, the Winston Salem Urban Area MPO and GUAMPO. Since the completion of the ICE, both of those plans have been updated with horizon years of 2040. Therefore, the horizon year for this report will be 2040 so as to coincide with the local transportation plans. 3.3 Other Transportation, Infrastructure, and Active Development Projects in the FLUSA Other transportation projects in and around the proposed project may have the potential to contribute to cumulative effects related to land use, transportation, human demographics, and the environment. The STIP was reviewed to identify other transportation and infrastructure projects, which are listed in Table 5. Table 5: Other transportation and infrastructure projects .- . . . . . Winston-Salem Northern Beltway, Eastern Section. Multi-lane freeway on new location from I-74/US 311 to east of US 52 for a total length of 17.1 miles, including seven sections for letting. All seven sections are currently programmed for funding: AA. I-74/ US 311 to I-40: Right-of-way (R/W) and utilities in 2018 2020 U-2579 2018; Construction in 2020. AB. I-40 to Business 40/US 421/NC 150: Design-build 2018 2018 Completion Under expected in B. I-40 Business/US 421/NC 150 to US 158 Construction 2019 Chapter 3.0: Base Screening Page 12 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties . . . .- �- � . C. US 158 to US 311 In Progress 2018 D. US 311 to Baux Mountain Road (SR 2211): Design Build 2018 2018 E. Baux Mountain Road (SR 2211) to NC 8: Design-build 2018 2018 F. NC 8 to east of US 52: Design-build 2018 2018 Winston-Salem Northern Beltway, Western Section. Four lane expressway on new location from I-40 to US 52/ Northern Beltway Eastern Section (STIP U-2579) terminus for a total length of 14.8 miles, including 11 sections for letting. Current STIP funding schedules for each section: EB. Interchange at US 52 2018 2018 EA. NC 67 to south of US 52: Design-build 2021 2021 Developmental Program R-2247 D. North of Meadowlark Drive/Robinhood Road (SR 134) to NC 67: Design-build 2023 2023 CB. North of US 421 interchange to Robinhood Road (SR 2025 2025 1348): Design-build B. South of I-40 to south of Us 421 interchange: Design-build 2027 2027 CA. Interchange with US 421 and interchange with Peace 2027 2027 Haven Road (SR 1140): Design-build Unfunded A. US 158 to south of I-40 na na U-5824 NC 66 (Old Hollow Road) from US 158 (Reidsville Road) to Harley 2020 2022 (Forsyth) Drive in Walkertown. Widen to multi-lanes. R-5823 (Guilford — NC 65 in Stokesdale (southernmost intersection) to US 220/ 2021 2023 Rockingham) Future I-73. Widen to multi-lanes Kernersville Southern Loop (Phase I): I-40 Business/ US 421 to West Mountain Street (NC 66) in Kernersville. Widen Big Mill 2020 2022 U-5760 Farm Road and Hopkins Road (SR 2649) and construct (Forsyth) interchange at I-40 Business/US 421/NC 150. *Current schedule information based on 2017-2028 approved STIP Chapter 3.0: Base Screening Page 13 Dan i__ � � ' � Walnu � � 1 ; Ki ng � - � �� w► �! � ! Stokes County �: � --------------- -------- --- Forsyth County i �, � r Rural Hall -��--�;�� Tobaccoville �� u-Zs�9� ,� li� 0 � � ti��^ ' � ��_� ` . Lewisvi ��-'�r � n� =— � Winston-Sale � i t �E � R-2577 Q FLUSA �� Nearby STIP Projects 0 Winston Salem Beltway ►6 Wal � � 421 � � � "��N � Legend e ison 4� ��'�� °��< <,, � �5 '� 4��♦ ------------------ - �------- �� ------ t------ i "�� , -� �,� Stokesdale �� ; �$ � ; .�� Sum �wn ' i �824 i � Oak Ridge , -'�`�` 1 ,; / �,�. '� i �50 ✓�� i - --� s i so � � ,L W _ o � i _� /� Interstate NC Route US Route ' _ � � � �J . —., , � � -... Kernersvill� �J`�' '- w--° —�� l � _� �� \ r �� I �' , I �� -14 �' L � i �:�i� L� � Water Stream/River - �" v _ � `��.� ,, ' Wentworth :.',� ��i � I I ; � ; eidsville ' � ;----------- Rocking Guilfo erfiel "� � zo - , FLUSA FJr�rfolk reensboro ,.�: ��.�� -T--- �--�-�-,--�__ -,>,,-,,,,--, nG'r�,�ille .; f,�r 1 � 1.., ] _ ,- 5 �rfo ! �5��` � ��`;r`,.i'---=(�� .j1`t, � ;-�ty.i ,�,�i ..,�r j---�._�- � / .6 ",.�q' j ! �\ - - ' �� ` � t ' � i , �l ei.g�i; '�%�' � — � ; �i r�C_ �, y j` .._.J^� -_-�.`�__,1�_—_L1✓�� ' �--i `� 1r' S' �� , �� `�-�' l`yi_,�-.��L � 1�-r--��fJ�,ti _�1�^/�..''�''Ci��'��.-tiiy`\`'�'.,•—I Greenvil I� ___� _ �l> ; � % 1-- � Y ti -J' ,-', _ L _ ` � ''` � ,j '� ;� ,' � �\ 1 � �4 i•� \;' "'�-< ,\ l,-,s" y , Columbia �� `� �' t� ''�,- —i FIGURE 2 - OTHER TRANSPORTATION, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND ACTIVE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN THE FLUSA 0 2 4 8 Miles e Date September2018 This map is for reference only. Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. FNORIH�� , � Q��,� NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT �` � OF TRANSPORTATION ` DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS pP 4��~��OFtRPN��O R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 3.4 Population Trends and Projections The FLUSA is comprised of portions of Forsyth, Guilford, Stokes, and Rockingham counties and includes portions of Winston-Salem, Walkertown, Oak Ridge, Stokesdale, Summerfield, Rural Hall, Kernersville and Greensboro. The North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM) released the latest set of county population projections in October of 2017. The dataset includes 2010-2016 population estimates and 2017-2037 population projections for North Carolina counties. Forsyth and Guilford counties, which have the two largest population centers in Winston-Salem and Greensboro, are both projected to have steady population growth over the established timeframe, with a 1 percent and 0.8 percent annualized growth rate between 2010 and 2037. Rockingham and Stokes counties are both projected to have a slight decline in population between 2010 and 2037. Overall, the FLUSA is expected to have an annualized population growth rate of 0.7 percent and therefore warranted a"medium-low" rating on this screening factor. Specific population estimates and projections for the counties in the FLUSA are provided in Table 6. Table 6: County population growth Source: NC OSBM. (2017). County/State Population Projections. Retrieved from https://www.osbm.nc.�ov/demog/countv-proiections 3.5 Employment Trends and Projections The Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce provides employment projections for prosperity zones and regions in North Carolina. The FLUSA is located in the Piedmont-Triad Prosperity Zone, which is broken into two regions. Between 2014 and 2024 the Greensboro region is projected to have a 4.7 percent increase in employment, equating to an approximate annualized growth rate of 0.5 percent over the ten-year time span. The Winston-Salem region is anticipated to have a 5.1 percent increase in employment over the same timeframe, equated to an approximate annualized growth rate of 0.5 percent (2014). Chapter 3.0: Base Screening Page 15 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Overall, the Piedmont Triad prosperity zone is anticipated to have a 0.5 percent annualized growth rate in employment, and therefore warrants a"medium-low" rating on this screening factor. 3.6 Notable Human Environmental Features The following notable human environmental features were identified in the ICE Screening report (NCDOT, 2012) and the Community Impact Assessment (CIA) report (NCDOT, 2018) prepared for R-2577. As part of preparing the LUSA report, the notable features were verified and updated as necessary. The FLUSA includes portions of Forsyth, Guilford, Stokes, and Rockingham counties within the Piedmont Triad region of North Carolina. The Triad consists of the areas within and surrounding Winston-Salem, High Point, and Greensboro. The Triad is connected by I-40, I-85, future I-73, and future I-74, and is served by several regional airports and the Piedmont Triad International Airport. The Triad has historically been a national employment center for tobacco, textiles, and furniture manufacturing; however, with a large number of universities and medical centers located in the Triad, healthcare, technology and biotechnology are emerging as leading industries in the region. 3.6.1 Land Use The FLUSA boundary encompasses the municipalities of Walkertown, Stokesdale, Oak Ridge and Summerfield, and portions of Winston-Salem, Rural Hall, Kernersville, and Greensboro. This section discusses the land use within those communities, as well as the unincorporated areas of the FLUSA. US 158 passes through the Towns of Walkertown and Stokesdale, both of which originated as rural communities with small town centers surrounded by rural residential and agricultural uses. These municipalities, as well as the unincorporated areas around them, have in recent years experienced a considerable amount of residential growth influenced by the expansion of urbanized areas and populations in nearby Winston-Salem and Greensboro. The Towns of Oak Ridge and Summerfield are just to the south of Stokesdale and are largely suburban, bedroom communities for employment centers in Greensboro. The Town of Oak Ridge grew around the Oak Ridge Military Academy, the official military school of North Carolina. The Town of Summerfield is predominantly single-family residences centered on a historic crossroads commercial district. Until recently, most land in this area was farmland. It has only been in the past two decades that these communities have experienced large-scale residential growth. As shown in Figure 3, land use transitions as the US 158 corridor leaves Winston-Salem and travels through Walkertown and Stokesdale. The US 158 corridor through northeast Winston-Salem and Walkertown is predominantly residential, institutional, and forested/agricultural uses. Single-family homes and churches abut US 158, contributing to a large number of driveway connections. The corridor is also flanked by residential subdivisions with single-point connections to US 158. There is a large commercial and mixed-use node on the southern side of the US 158/NC 66 (Old Hollow Road) intersection. Pedestrian activity is mostly limited to trails and walking paths with little to no evidence of pedestrian activity throughout most of the US 158 corridor. The Community Characteristics Report (NCDOT, 2012) and CIA note that there are several Census block groups with notable minority populations in the westernmost portion of the project, the area surrounding the US 158/NC 66 intersection, and off US 158 in southwest Stokesdale. Chapter 3.0: Base Screening Page 16 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Just east of Walkertown, land use along the US 158 corridor transitions to predominantly agricultural and rural residential uses. These uses are also prevalent to the north and west in portions of the FLUSA lying in Stokes County, and also eastward to the NC 150 corridor in Guilford County. There are fewer residences abutting US 158 as well as fewer driveways and side street connections as the US 158 corridor extends east. Although most of the land in the central portion of the FLUSA is rural, low density single-family residential growth is extending north and west out of Kernersville, Oak Ridge, and Summerfield. As US 158 continues into Guilford County, there is a higher amount of residential development around Belews Creek, but houses in this area are generally in neighborhoods farther away from the roadway and connect to US 158 via a single access point. Land use in the FLUSA is shown in Figure 3. In Rural Hall, which is located in the north east portion of the FLUSA, land use is predominatly rural residential with some commercial and light industrial uses near the downtown and in the vicinity of US 52. Kernersville is more densly developed, but is still largely suburban. The portion of Kernersville that is within the FLUSA is largely single family residential with commercial areas in the downtown and a long NC 150. Chapter 3.0: Base Screening Page 17 � v�, ( t � Danbury � %� 1 '' ':.�� i � � " �- -- i b� '�, i � � �. �_ .� , , - �. . , � / < � � - - : > -=;,, B� ) i i ' i � � ;� � adison �� Wentworth ; � � �. � ; � , ' � ��.� ; - i - i L, ,�t�`�;', :�' ..� eidsville � 7 311 y � � �� ► � � "� �' . `- :�; i i >" �,�. .,;_ � �+b� � �:. j. � � ' Walnu ove � , _ ,�,q - - " � x. �`S �:= -,�_ , �� i � ,� �� 'y �,� ; _ • . �, i . � ,,(`,,! . � . -- _ � J '. - •� : , � �I i •' : , �� ; i , � . � � -,� ;� � �� z � �IE �'�.� , j .. _ , V , ,, ,f` , � , . � y,. , � King , : ,w . � � _ , �� ,___ . ,, . , , . _ . , �+ /+ � `; s.� � � �7tOke$ �.r0unt . � r .a � s -� ��L ':'o� 4'.`' , }^ r"� 1 Y .r•��' � � , � � - --. '---------------- ,-�5 � ,, ;s r�� '—�� "'\8 " .�. 158 j - �1_. � >�_ � � ' ----------------------- m. t' � � � Forsyth County "_ .__ `+1 , � � , � � Rockingham County � '�' � � . Sto esda! � � � --------------------- - `'. /� �,..,p��C � � y_ � -------•— --------------i------------ , ; � •_ � . -� 3 " Guilford Count � �.� `,� RUral Haii �� _ r .�� N ., � � � �. y � , Tobaccoville �" � ,�— . � � �-1a_ . � ;' �`� ,, 220. • :^µ i � �� i •, .� , . �d = . � ►' -- ,. a �, d . , '� v � �; a _ 'S��r erfiel ' i � . - � `'� ti ` l I . \ w, ,6 . .�, . � � � � �' Y ;" Wal �o �; �akrRj,d e � a �=�, r zs - - _ � , � �� ' � �� - , �. � . � �� ,' ; �_�, p 150 /b ` _ _, e i � � _ - \, � �q ��d"'�'A. -��. . � � � � . . :` . �. , �� . _.qt[t� � 7° _ 52 �, � �" � g��` i ; - � � �+�� . � ,�.�.. � � �' ,�.�. r � � - � FLUSA �'Jrrfc�lk. �, �� , r, o.. ._ � ' � "�� + ,; ±�� _ �� .�T. Greensboro ,--�- t -� - - �—1 -,-; - - � � -,�� ;,, , �y.� . - � L ` �...�'Cy ^ �L....•�� ,I � I � _ J� ` \�'. � j �\ \ �5 � p �+`, W�1IJl�l1—V�II. ,� , �� y� ��. ��d(`r, +.�Ii�Jl:��F �i�^14-i / '� J _ $�JfJIC1� �"�[\ ��i��,/� '��.Z�14 LGW'J V I � � I ei%� ^ ��^ ' ' J _ �l. /` ` —_J 1- �' y p� �./� �'?r� ) 1 \\ -� �� ai: ^I-� •^� i.:"�` _�� \ �� ` �_�a, � � I'��F_�Igl�� i��1s�.�% , �7i I �� _ ti j, ". -—; t�— 1� j ��-��; ti �i�_,r�� S \ I � � �h��: iyry_ li . - '�. ' _—: � � ` � � �� ,,,�, I_ p 16�� ! � i �~`�-� �J�]�f��3�F,..._�1 :� ;�.� � �� i � i V� - ''^ Y -- - ;; . � ., _ _ y ., , , �, .. , , , _. � �--'- —' - _l � / �.� �� ,ti,= Lr-� �1 — I . �-f i � � - Kernersvill� � ' � , -, � : � %- ti �% ,- `� � GrFenl.�ill� -- � j ; � ,-1_ �� , _ \ � � � r ` - - , , �.,`,:. _ ; - - . r- •. � ��_� � _ _ i � � � ti •, ,- � � w ,- '` � Y, �` i � � :i �? - Columbia �., ^ � � �> ', ',; � � _ - c,' �� -�� i ta -_ '', Legend FNORII{�, ■■■■� R-2577 - Widen Existing Alignment Institutional Agriculture � Industrial/Office FIGURE 3- EXISTING LAND USE x�� Q�� NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION = R-2577 Stokesdale Northern Bypass � Open Space Manufacturing � Easement �p.,,� oa� DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS ~��OFtpPH9� Q FLUSA Religious/Cemetery � Transportation � Other 0 2 4 8 0 Winstur: ��lem Beltway � Residential � Utility :'; Duke Owned Property Miles R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS --- � Commercial � Office Park/Industrial Park e Date September2018 FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES COUIIt Bounda This map is for reference only. L__ _I y ry Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 3.6.2 Community Resources There are numerous community resources dispersed throughout the FLUSA, shown on Figure 4 through Figure 7. The CIA identified the following community resources that could be directly impacted by the project. Parks: • Salem Lake Park and Greenway (1001 Salem Lake Road, Winston Salem) • Walkertown Community Park (A Section 6(f) resource) (2701 Darrow Road, Walkertown) • Stokesdale Town Park (8329 Angel Pardue Road, Stokesdale) • Stokesdale Community Park (8401 Capri Drive, Stokesdale) Greenway Trails • Lowery Mill Creek Greenway • Atlantic and Yadkin (A&Y) Greenway • Mountains to Sea Trail Emergency Management City View Volunteer Fire Department (4664 Old Belews Creek Road) Schools • Petree Elementary School (3815 Old Greensboro Road, Winston Salem) • Simon G. Atkins Academic and Technology High School (3605 Old Greensboro Road, Winston- Salem) • Middle Fork Elementary School (3125 Williston Road, Walkertown) • Walkertown Elementary School (2971 Main Street, Walkertown) • Walkertown Middle and High Schools (5240 Sullivantown Road, Walkertown) • Stokesdale Elementary School (8025 US-158, Stokesdale) Churches • Edgewood Baptist Church (4067 Reidsville Road/US 158, Winston-Salem) • Crews United Methodist Church (4150 Reidsville Road, Winston Salem) • Manna Baptist Church (4368 Stokesdale Avenue, Winston-Salem) • Harvest Baptist Church (4671 US 158, Winston-Salem) • Warrensville Church of God (9087 US 158, Stokesdale) • Oak Springs Missionary Baptist Church (9070 US 158, Stokesdale) • Stokesdale Church of God (9081 US 158, Stokesdale) • Stokesdale Christian Church (8607 Stokesdale Street, Stokesdale) • Stokesdale Baptist Church (8411 Stokesdale Street, Stokesdale) • Heritage Baptist Church (8430 Southward Road, Stokesdale) • Stokesdale Methodist Church (8305 Loyola Drive, Stokesdale) • Crossroads Community Church (8212 B and G Ct, Stokesdale) • Flat Rock United Methodist Church (6720 US 158, Stokesdale) Chapter 3.0: Base Screening Page 19 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Cemeteries • Crews United Methodist Church Cemetery (4150 Reidsville Road, Winston Salem) • Warrensville Church of God Cemetery (9087 US 158, Stokesdale) • Oak Springs Missionary Baptist Church (9070 US 158, Stokesdale) • 8607 Stokesdale Christian Church Cemetery (8607 Stokesdale Street, Stokedale) • Flat Rock United Methodist Church Cemetery (6720 US 158, Stokesdale) Child Care/Elderly Care • Happy Days Child Care (1480 Harvest Drive, Winston Salem) • Creekside Manor Residential Care Roadway (6206 Reidsville Road, Forsyth County) • Laugh & Learn Child Care Center (7846 Athens Road, Stokesdale NC) • Little Feet Learning Center (7809 US 158, Stokesdale) • Countryside Village Retirement Community (7700 US 158, Stokesdale) 3.6.3 Voluntary Agricultural Districts (VAD) and Enhanced Voluntary Agricultural Districts (EVAD) All four counties within the FLUSA have established VAD programs and Guilford County also has an EVAD program. VADs and EVADs are established through adopted ordinances to promote agricultural values, encourage the economic and financial health of agriculture, and increase protection from non- farmland development and other negative impacts on farms. While there are numerous farms participating in the VAD program throughout the FLUSA, the CIA identified the following farms that could be directly impacted by the project: • 4356 Old Belews Creek Road. (Forsyth County Parcel ID: 6856-38-3357.00; Owner: Vaughn) is located just north of Beeson Dairy Road adjacent to the project corridor. • 4725 Old Belews Creek Road. (Forsyth County Parcel ID: 6857-82-4015.00; Owner: Whicker) is located on the south side of Old Belews Creek Road just south of the project corridor. • 5398 Reidsville Road. (Forsyth County Parcel ID: 6868-74-8241.00; Owner: Hardy), is located on the north side of Kernersville Road, just north of the project corridor. • 5950 Kernersville Road. (Forsyth County Parcel ID: 6980-70-0911.00; Owner: Poindexter) is located on the west side of Kernersville Road, beginning approximately 250 feet north of the existing US 158 corridor. • 5996 & 6170 Kernersville Road. (Forsyth County Parcel ID: 6980-71-6121.00; Owner: Wetherall) is located adjacent to the Poindexter VAD property on Kernersville Road. • 8208 Millrun Road. (Guilford County Parcel PIN: 7920835439; Owner: Hardin) is located off Flat Rock Road just south of the existing US 158 corridor on the western side of Stokesdale. Chapter 3.0: Base Screening Page 20 0 =y �` Winston Lake� Park 0 5�F Y a � O - O� �9 z ,��/ '�t ��gvitW�N . � � CAII P � , ^ 9� 2 \ Cy �o �\ � � � J l9 \, \. � �� co 9�, a,p � Middle Fork �s y,� �� .�P Elementary ��ps� s v� - �° ¢ City View �`6t S'_' � �' � cZ ��'G � � LEAF DR 2 a Q.. �� F�, s,� c o � Volunteer Fire y�� EDGEWOOD a.p �o � �'� L�P Department � JF'v� BAPTIST 'P S� EEKR Q,�.P' . � s�5/ CHURCH � o�osE W Q � _ ti / ■�s��•� ■�■ CREWSm�ff��s�w�s a� �MORRIS4HILL� a��a��e � HILDq gr � METFiODIST � � BAPTIST� °p CHURCH MANNA � �pA G�NBYST �� / � BAPTIST� 'a Z DqR CHURCH ��0�'�� '" p 9 CHIURCH ttt w a �9L Sl KA IESTL , —� 9 � Petree�. y,��PE`�� y�p \�•� � ��<\� Elementary ,,� ,�� '�o �v `� ��-` '�o Salem ��' �_ Lake �• .o Park ! � o � — _ ��yS T/ ._' -- CGl. � O O -. "'-�� ep�o y� c a w Pa T ^'Fy,��=� - F�cNS `.�,, � �,� H � ' MYER LEE DR �\ � Z � � WEST MpUNTq/ly T Legend ■■■■� R-2577 - Widen Existing Alignment 0 Emergency Management � Church Q FLUSA ttt Cemeteries � Voluntary Agricultural District � Winston Salem Beltway � Parks Munici�ui'.ties O,P � � � \�� Sy��Ro .� �� \ m o 5 s�, � ``` o Town `�Q P < Center �' o Park ti Walkertown �s�, High Wal ke rtown " Elementary BRANCH RD � o Walkertown f�, � \'2_ Middle �y ��P� OQ,�`�" �,�\N ST @ltOWll� Communitv, Park 4 /q TOWN RD �_ Wal kertown Park` � � Et0 66 �� G J��E �,O I Q- pJ.'�'�� Q'��'DI-,y ----,---------'��!T�------- �_ ,_ � — � '��i� � c, ,p./2 �G,9 , " ��: � --------- � ''� �v � �, �,� � 9T ♦ ti c9� � ' e�� o� t.y r' � �;:`. o��s k � �� FORSYTW,C �NTY � GtJII.FORD COUN7'Y' � �' 1 c��'f- �� t z -Po - I " �� . �y ,� t OFNORIH�,qOG FIGURE 4- NOTABLE '� NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT COMMUNITY RESOURCES x � OF TRANSPORTATION ` DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS pP 4��~��OFtRPN��O 0 1,000 2,000 4,000 � Feet R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS Date�September2018 FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES This map is for reference only. Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. �o � � � Walkertown Park � o� G�as o� �o O O OL� R� �� eE�% Legend ■■■■� R-2577 - Widen Existing Alignment 0 Emergency Management � Church Q FLUSA ttt Cemeteries � Voluntary Agricultural District Municipalities � Parks 158 a o° �jJP ;� � �;.�� . �_�� ,� �� FIGURE 5 - NOTABLE COMMUNITY RESOURCES 0 1,000 2,000 4,000 � Feet Date September2018 This map is for reference only. Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. r �� f —. � GtJII.FORD COUN7'Y' l ��x' 1 ► # � ' � : h � " I - t OFNORIH�,qOG "� NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT �` � OF TRANSPORTATION ` DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS pP 4��~��OFtRPN��O R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES SPRING LN �'�'�� UMl'Y i I�'4��`ii�' , -------------------------- � _ - -- �` , -_--------- v �� GUILFORD COUNTY co ok�qR � Rp /� i / BELEWS CREEK RD � / / � '/ � � z � � � ;' J a � �` l j ' / / �' � ; / � �a i � � �� m � 03 / V � ; � �'� ;' B i % � 2'� �` / �OJ/O, i �� a Q'y! k�� 0 / J� / C9 � i � / / Legend ■■■■� R-2577 - Widen Existing Alignment 0 Emergency Management � Church � R-2577 Stokesdale Northern Bypass ttt Cemeteries � Voluntary Agricultural District Q FLUSA � Parks Munici�ui'.ties � o �� ,` 2� OSd9e � � � . ` \ � Rd ��. � � 7�� ' � < Hutchen�Rd , � � �. WARRENSVILLE CHURCH OF GOD kesdale M"�� OAK SPRINGS �d�fs MISSIONARY �,�P BAPTIST CHURCH �Pa .t t US Hi9h� � W STOKESDALE �, �� CHURCH �� OF GOD a � ,� V.` . ` Ro�k'N p� o� G��F cyqM �` �RO�`-��v 1 ` c��N� ry � � ' � s ?�o. '�.` ._ .` .` z `o p a A !_" �d m — .fl W Gideon Gro�e , � � STOKESDALE � CHRISTIAN CHURCH ttt � HERITAGE BAPTIST / GHURCH STOKESD <E•� BAPTIST CHURCH ._.,ar � , �5 a Community M�cr � �Par� ° Ra STOKESDALE UNITED METHODIST CHURCH FIGURE 6 - NOTABLE COMMUNITY RESOURCES 0 1,000 2,000 4,000 e Feet Date September2018 This map is for reference only. Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. � �e p� .` .` � .` .` .` of. , OFNORIH�,qOG "� NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT �` � OF TRANSPORTATION ` DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS pP 4��~��OFtRPN��O R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES �c< Ln D� i N -eO^ ��v oc NC 65 ` d .D SunriseqcresRq � � � 4�n M"Ra ^ �5158 _ �� L� Grove Dr � Q� �� ROCKINGHAM_COUNTY _______ ___ �_ /l J _-�,�. _'_'_'_" '_'_" Bemiceor I --- � ----- --- m ------ --�---------------------------------------- — GUILFORDCOUNTY --------------------------��------------- � ------=, --�---------------------------- � � � N l c / \ II e I�Cd_ I .�a/� IU \ G� h .., s =' � e'a / ..I - .. .. Lesten c�a � V Creek Rd d �y� ��7 w� 5 ; � s$ r �i,- s oMarne Dr � ,Q r a �o d /e �» Ra STOKESDALE UNITED METHODIST CHURCH � O R c� .� � a � CROSSROADS � COMMUNITY CHURCH .� OF STOKESDALE N � SP / \ � » I Legend ■■■■� R-2577 - Widen Existing Alignment 0 Emergency Management � Church � R-2577 Stokesdale Northern Bypass ttt Cemeteries � Voluntary Agricultural District Q FLUSA � Parks Municipalities FLAT ROC METHODI; �Tt �* C H s0 Ln Rd � x \� 9��5 l� N � �� o s Fai ---------^---- —�—^--- I � � 6£ � --- - - - --- --------- N � I � .� 'p4 NNo .,*,t y o � � �£ �e�o ��:I n �� ' � .. P � �kIR�YTkI<COUNTX � �a79I1LFORD COUN"f'Y •� �� i � �� `, i � i � � , OFNORIH�,qOG FIGURE 7- NOTABLE '� NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT COMMUNITY RESOURCES x � OF TRANSPORTATION ` DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS pP 4��~��OFtRPN��O 0 1,000 2,000 4,000 Feet R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS e Date�September2018 FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES This map is for reference only. Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 3.7 Notable Natural Environmental Features As with the notable human environmental features, the notable natural features identified in the ICE were reviewed, verified and updated as needed. The FLUSA includes portions of three separate river basins (Cape Fear, Roanoke, and Yadkin). The portion of the FLUSA within the Cape Fear River Basin falls under the jurisdiction of the Jordan Lake Buffer Rules administered by NCDWR. These rules include requirements on minimizing stormwater runoff for new development and agricultural land uses. The Jordan Lake Buffer Rules have been delayed in legislation until 2019 at the earliest. There are a number of water supply watersheds in the FLUSA, most notably the Salem Lake and Belews Creek watersheds and critical areas in the Winston-Salem/Walkertown area. The Troublesome Creek and Reedy Fork watersheds are within the Jordan Lake watershed. Within the Jordan Lake watershed, the Haw River and Troublesome Creek are identified as impaired waterbodies on the state's 303(d) list (NCDWQ, 2016). Specific issues addressed by the rules include reducing pollution from wastewater discharges, stormwater runoff from new and existing development, agriculture and fertilizer application. There are also several other streams within the FLUSA that are listed as impaired on the 303(d) list including: • Salem Creek (Middle Fork Muddy Creek) • Haw River • Reedy Fork • Brush Creek • Horsepen Creek • Unnamed Tributary at Guilford College • Troublesome Creek • Belews Creek There are many streams, lakes, floodplains, wetlands, natural heritage areas, and recreational facilities within these watersheds and the FLUSA. A search of the North Carolina Natural Heritage database did not indicate the presence of any federally protected species (USFWS, 2010); however, suitable habitat for the bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) may be present in the undeveloped portions of the FLUSA, particularly in the area around Belews Lake. Some of the streams in the FLUSA may provide suitable habitat for the Carolina darter (Etheostoma collis lepidinion) (a federal species of concern). Suitable habitat may be present for the bog turtle (Clemmys muhlenbergii) (listed as threatened due to its similar appearance to the northern bog turtle) and the small whorled pogonia (Isotria medeoloides). There are also portions of the Haw River State Park in the easternmost part of the FLUSA along the Rockingham-Guilford County line, as well as numerous local parks including Salem Lake Park, Horizons Park, and Bur-Mill Park in Guilford County. Most of the notable natural resources are dispersed throughout the FLUSA, without any real concentration. For this reason, a"medium" rating was assigned to this screening factor. Chapter 3.0: Base Screening Page 25 Danbury �:...� � 4i' � 7 � � Walnu ove ; - � � ; King ; Stokes County s5 � -- ---------------- — � � � Forsyth County--- ----------------- ---------� ---; .�` •� ` Rural Hall - -' Tobaccoville � �� •� : __ ;,� �►s � ° iI \ �� 52 � `�� ' � � -. � `� ., ' - ._ :� Lewisville � `� � - �` _ �. Winston-Sale I" � Legend �� R-2577 - Widen Existing Alignment R-2577 Stokesdale Northern � � Bypass Q FLUSA r "� -��_ � - t � Oak Ridge i I \5� N I �� j ReeaY � I Kern�`� ersvill� I i � I i f� f%; �� f� �<o�b�eso �l �,�' �.__?'i � Sumi't�e --------u--�------ _� ,� �`�\Se � v� � a� � �__ i County Boundary �I Abbotts Creek, WS-III � Reedy Fork, WS-III �—♦ 303d Streams (2016) I I Belews Creek, WS-IV � Salem Lake, WS-III 0 NC State Park '� Dan River � j Troublesome Creek, WS-III Streams/Rivers 0 East Fork Deep River, WS-IV � Critical Portions of the Watershed � �, , � i , -� , � Wentworth � ; � ; eidsville ' � � ,; +�� ; � � ► I ^ i �kin ham County � �' --g ----------- �------------ Guilford County � � � � � � � � 29 -`^J ��,�L � ; 1 FLUSA �'Jr�rfr,lk. reensboro '_-r--: - ,---- -- - --, y..i —r-- — �--�—�—� �-- �' c ,\-� L_i.r ' �.� � ' + � �. � -..,�`` \�.'ti-'— � '�, � '� \ ,�� `', r _.�_�-�- 1 �- -'�, 'I'�.��-�1�� ! IlG}: I��F ,..'i( t u.� , �� __ S��GfG i,��[� � i /+.. �-". ,' '-` ," � ��.tii -,a� i _ _ i- `- ' ' � .-!, `,"+' i ! \ , -^; �`�� , '�_`, . ( , �;'alFi.g{i; ��'�1,�.,— „ - �i _ `; i v - � ti_—,' ;. " '� ,-L! ll ti j, .^�. ;--_.'t'--1---�—� i`"^ :�,r•� S I I�_`�'^ t `e _.-'— `L-�-1 -�]�f��3�F�..._11 / :�- -,'�_� � " ;'_ �� ` ._l ,' �., ;� ; ,�.: __ __ " � ., ` ' ; , ,y' _ �'1 �`J� ,� <`��FFI�IeIII� �_—L__� � : ��l 2.,,_ 4 � `! 1� ``�, w � � � � � � v �. \ i � i�l / , t� Columbia _ _,- FIGURE 8 - NATURAL ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES 0 2 4 8 Miles e Date September2018 This map is for reference only. Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. FNORIH�� h � Q�G� NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT �` � OF TRANSPORTATION ` DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS pP 4��~��OFtRPN��O R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 4.0 Analytical5creening Chapter 3 assesses the scope of the project, estimated travel time savings, water and sewer availability, the market for development, and public policy. The 2012 ICE screened indirect effects potential separately for the northern and southern bypass alternatives around Stokesdale although the background information necessary to conduct the screening evaluations were largely the same for both alternatives. Since a NEPA preferred alternative has been chosen for the project, it will be used for screening purposes in this report. 4.1 Scope of the Project The R-2577 project is an 18.8-mile-long widening improvement of the existing US 158 roadway through Sections A and B, and a new location bypass on the north side of the Town of Stokesdale through Section C. The new location bypass is proposed as a full control of access freeway with no interchanges, and does not provide additional access. Therefore, it is not anticipated to encourage new development. Because the project consists of linear improvements to an existing roadway and will likely not encourage new development, a"medium" score is warranted for the scope of the project. Table 7 summarizes the likely changes. Table 7: Summary of transportation impact causing activities . .• •. • Travel Yes Speed limits in Section C around Stokesdale would increase from 35 miles per hour Time (mph) to an anticipated 55 mph. In addition to the speed limit increase, the added capacity and lack of signal delay would also improve travel times in this part of Section C. The resulting travel time savings would be approximately 8-10 minutes for the entire route. Travel Yes The proposed northern bypass around Stokesdale would affect local travel patterns. Patterns Bypass traffic would be routed away from downtown Stokesdale onto the bypass. Property No The proposed project will reduce the level of access on most existing location sections of Access the project corridor, which currently have no control-of-access. All existing property access will be maintained; however, the proposed median will modify the range of permitted movements into and out of most existing driveways and cross street connections, restricting left turn movements to signalized intersections and median cross-over locations only. No new access to property would be created with the Northern Stokesdale Bypass alternative as it does not include any interchanges. 4.2 Travel Time Savings A travel time savings assessment was conducted for the ICE for both the northern and southern bypass. The speed limits are unlikely to increase as result of the R-2577 project in Sections A and B due to the Chapter 4.0: Analytical Screening Page 27 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties presence of Walkertown and neighborhoods in that area or, further east (Section B), higher existing speed limits. The latter is also true of the easternmost stretch of Section C(east of Southland Road) since it is already posted at 55 mph. However, these sections will likely see some travel time savings as a result of turn lanes, elimination of left turns, and other improvements. These improvements would likely result in 1-2 minutes of travel time savings. The travel time differential would be greater for the portion of Section C that is currently posted at 35mph from Grays Harbor Road to Southland Road (approximately 2.5 miles in length). In addition to the speed limit increase, the added capacity and lack of signal delay would also improve travel times in this part of Section C. Assuming that the combination of signal delay reduction plus the posted speed increase would produce an average 25 mph increase in average travel speeds compared to current conditions, the resulting travel time savings would be approximately 8-10 minutes under best case conditions (based on a travel time savings calculation of 25 mph divided by 2.5 miles equals 10 minutes). The total travel time savings for the entirety of the project would be 11-12 minutes. This range of 11-12 minutes accounts for the relatively high rating in the 2012 ICE, since this amount of travel time savings is suggested by adopted NCDOT Indirect and Cumulative Impact guidance documentation to be sufficient to alter travel patterns, travel behavior and location decisions for new development and therefore warranted a"high" rating on this screening factor. 4.3 Water and Sewer Availability The provision of public water and sewer service (as opposed to package treatment systems or individual wells, for example) allows for commercial and industrial development that cannot otherwise be permitted outside of the sewer service area boundaries. Water and sewer services are available throughout the municipal areas within the Muddy Creek Waste Water Service Area of Forsyth County. The sewer service area boundary line within the FLUSA is NC 66 that contains the Muddy Creek sewer basin and it functions as a growth management boundary. Much of the area in Forsyth County that is outside of the sewer service area is designated rural conservation area where low density residential development is permitted. There are no plans to change this boundary or to extend sewer service areas in Forsyth County. Stokes, Rockingham, and Guilford counties generally do not provide water and sewer treatment currently outside of municipal areas, but it can be made available through agreements with private developers as part of a voluntary annexation agreements, for instance. Stokesdale currently has limited water service and no sewer service. According to the local planner a sewer feasibility study is underway, but there are no planned sewer projects within the next 20 years. A small treatment plant provides sewer service to the Kings Crossing Shopping Center that is partially located in Stokesdale. The 2012 ICE evaluated the water and sewer availability screening factor separately for the northern and southern bypass alternatives around Stokesdale. The northern alternative earned a"moderate" rating for this screening factor. However, many northern parts of the FLUSA do not have ready access to public water and sewer, and are predominately low density residential development served by private water wells and septic systems. Given the overall lack of sewer service and limited water service in the FLUSA, and no plans for sewer service in the next 20 years, a screening evaluation of "medium low" is provided. Chapter 4.0: Analytical Screening Page 28 �\ � � � l.g, _ - � � � �� nty <; r� ��UF�/ � - �� ,'�� \ �� \..`\�`'i `\``\�` \\\\� 52 `\ \ � �� . �; � � ��\ ��. �.��. . . �. . � � � � � � � � �. � � � \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ �\ \ �� \ � \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ � � \ \ \ � \ \ \ \ � \ `- � � � � �. � � � � �� . � �- Waln \ � � � � � � � � � . \. � � � � � � `. . � � � �� .�� o � � � � � � � . � �. � � � � �. � � � � �� .�. � . � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� ` � \ \ \`, \1' y—\' \ \+�\I \ \ \ \ \.�,\\ \:\\\��"�'(��Q\� \ \\ �'�\\\\'\ il�i . � �� . � � � � � � � � � �� `�� '� \ � � � � � � � � � \ �'� � �. � � � � � � �� V A V A A A \ V A A� A A V A A A ��, ,,,,,.��,�,��,,,,, ,• \ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � . � � . � � � � � . \ �� . � � '�, �, � � � � ` � � � � �. � � � � , � � � � � �' ��. � �� . � � � � � � � � ' �� , ' � � , �� , � V ' � � � � � •�;; �� i� - �: � � � � � � � � � �,� "�� , � � � �� -'�;-� , � . , .�, � � �, � � � � � � � ,.: � � '� � e . ison � � F•" � T..: -.. �5 � \$ --------------------\ \ , ; Sto�esdale �� Legend ■■■■� R-2577 - Widen Existing Alignment `�"' : Sewer System Service Area - R-2577 Stokesdale Northern Bypass � Water System Service Area Q FLUSA �___i County Boundary 0 Winston Salem Beltway � ,, z2c � �,a � � Sum Oak Ridge '�`� e ,50 a - � � Wentworth � �i `i i ; � ; idsville ' � - �, ._ ' Rockingham Count� Guilford Countv reensboro / FLUSA �Jr�rfc,lk. r--`�-..<; -L — — �—+ --�—� — �� \ , � -;•\\� � L_i' �.� � �. � -..,�` �.•ti-'— � , , ` � \ I'�G} :�I��F ,�'i%'t u. ' � ----� `� _ S�iGfG i �-�[� � %'�,%� '��--�� ,_' '-` ," � J �,.tii -,a� i _ _ i- ti- •' / -!, �, ;' i � �� . -^, �`�-- , ',_`, . ( , �;'alFi.g{i;- ��'�1,.., ,, „ 'i _ `; i v - � ti_-,' ;. " '� j-L� l� � j, .�!-. �--_.'t'--1---�—� i`"^ :�,r•� s- I � �'^ �7 i �~`L-�-1 -�]�f�ri�F�..._11 ��- -d�,� � ,_J� � � --�--�--'-�""! ` i _, , ,'. �.� ;� ;�,ti.= . � i � �-; <.�� ,•� Greenvill� __ � _? 1 + ''1_' ti ,- _ \ ' 1 ``, %`'�•`, �. J w7 \ � ��/ t� �olumbia , _ _,- FIGURE 9 — PUBLIC UTILITY SERVICE AREA 0 2 4 8 Miles e Date September2018 This map is for reference only. Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. FNORIH�� h � Q�G� NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT �` � OF TRANSPORTATION ` DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS pP 4��~��OFtRPN��O R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 4.4 Available Land The FLUSA includes 269,693.1 acres. Of this, 144,411.1 acres (65.6 percent) are considered available for development. Land available for development was determined to include undeveloped parcels of land (those without building structures) and underutilized parcels. Developable land does not include protected lands such as public parks, NCDOT on-site mitigation properties, or lands managed for conservation and open space. Other land that was not considered developable includes rights-of-way for roads and rail lines, utility easements, rivers and streams, floodways and land protected by the Neuse River buffer rules. Wetlands exist in the FLUSA and may be more difficult to develop; however, these have not been delineated and were not excluded from the land considered developable. Once identified, the amount of wetlands in the FLUSA could lessen the developable acres. The total area of undevelopable land in the FLUSA is 49,567.8 acres. In addition, underutilized parcels were identified by selecting parcels in which the total value of improvements (i.e., buildings/structures) is less than the value of the parcel (i.e., land) without improvements. The FLUSA was also assigned an ease of assembly ratio that is based on the number of property owners. If the FLUSA has many property owners, assembling land to develop may be a challenge. The ease of assembly is measured in terms of the available parcel-to-owner ratio. Because of the number of available parcels within the FLUSA (25,765), and the large number of owners (14,388), a weighting factor of 1.25 was assigned. This results in a 82 percent weighted available land score. This score denotes a "high" amount of available land for this screening factor for both alternatives. Table 8 provides a summary of the acreages available for development and of underutilized parcels. Table 8: Summary of available land . FLUSA 269,693.1 100% Undevelopable Land 49,567.8 18.4 Developed Land 75,714.2 28.1% Land Available for Development: Undeveloped 144,411.1 53.5% (66.9% weighted) (vacant) and underutilized Chapter 4.0: Analytical Screening Page 30 v�, i i '� i s I i i � i I � S I I � , � 1 ` ; King � �- ; Stokes County �_ i --------------- -------- ---. Forsyth County i - .� � " A} � �?�, ' r k,�i - ��"�� Tobaccoville �a �� \7 4 i ;o �- . �. ; ��. ,� " .�1'! _ .~� -_.,.._.� � � Lewisvi Winston-Sale f � Danb��r ,� WalnufiiLove .. , , , ��i .� i �'� � .. �i�-,. ��_ '`•°�� y... � ��- � ' - 65 �` r �'��\ � a �?'� .� �„sr"-' ,} y �h _�� F � �_ � � � ��il: •K i ' _ �` �� ! �� q- ; .. �� +� =.� � � ,� '�', ��, ` M'.� ��a�'�+ � +� � � � � � . � r",� �.,,, �`� ' '�� ,.� � i � � �� ,g �� I. � ;:.,� r'i M i) ` ` I Wentworth � ; ,� � � , � - ' � _ +� . a y. � , ' } 4', •�� •�. ••. � -,i. _ :� r � , L� F'i � � . } , � �e + ��''' {''�'' ��.�i! ��j• , �- " �' �� `F � �, � � �, � w�. jj��j,,'�� ,.. ,, � _ � � �'� -�na 1�' � •� .nr� � . y ir ' 4`fj �J : '�� ¢;I ,,� .��`, ,�,� . . � �� . , '�� '� :;� � � , �� : �� + '. 1 �_�� 1 �� r' .�,- F ■ . ��,� . r�$ :.i- �I _ 158 _ � - ,,, � � -, ��- c'��, - � �t� _...� ^ ��, �� _. `•� r.� ��,1 '��'5�:.4,4 Q FLUSA ■■■■� R-2577 - Widen Existing Alignment R-2577 Stokesdale Northern Bypass 0 Winston Salem Beltway Legend Municipalities L__ i County Boundary _: Water Stream/River � c�, — ' � I i Kernersvill� %' i '. �. i i � � Developed Underutilized or Vacant Undevelopable Land J eidsville ' � /' � . J� � .'�'•4. •,4.r-�, l ' _ —/�_ ■ � ` / I � \�� I . ,;� ,� �� . � ► — . _"l _ _' 'y �) _ �;f� i Rockingham County � �� . �� Guilford County --------•----------------� , i I ► — i ' � ��'�. r `-� , _� J.,_� -� } 29 � � ; �. ± reensboro FLUSA ��61�°�� ,--�;y.�<; -L - - �—, --�-; - ,� - ,-� -;.\\, , L_i' �.� � �. � -..,�` �.•ti-'— � , , ` � \ IlG} :�I��F ,�'i%'t u. ' � ----� `� _ S�iGfG i �-�[� � %'�,%� '��--�� ti _� '-�,,-�J �,.tii ,,a� i--i_ ti- ��.i, ��;� i � '� , •^� `,:"" , ��_ '� . ( , �;'a�Fl.g{i; ��'1?�.% , ,; I _ `; i v - � ti_-,' ;. " '� ,r_ l_ ti i, _^�-. ;--_.'t'--1---�—� i`�4 :�,r•� s= I 1�'^ �7 i �~`L-�-1-�]�f�ri�F�..._11 ��- -d�,� � ,_J� �� --�--�— '-�'"� i _. ,,,�. �.� ;� ;�,ti,= .. � � � % �., � J, ,, Greenvill� ---�--•'-1 +-�"ti-- ti ,- ,,\ ' ;, `,�,.`_%`` `-- . �olumbia �� J y;'7 +� . - FIGURE 10 - AVAILABLE LAND 0 2 4 8 Miles e Date September2018 This map is for reference only. Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. FNORIH�� , � Q��,� NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT �` � OF TRANSPORTATION ` DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS pP 4��~��OFtRPN��O R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 4.5 Market for Development Forsyth County planners noted that moderate growth is occurring in Walkertown, Kernersville, and low density residential development served by septic systems and water wells is occurring in Oakridge and Stokesdale. Some industrial development is occurring near the Piedmont Triad International Airport, and at the newly developing Amazon distribution center near the Guilford/Forsyth county line. The planners also noted that the first section of the Northern Beltway is under construction and will open in 2019, opening future development opportunities in the FLUSA, particularly in PDA's 1 and 2. Sewer service stops at NC 66, which means much of the area north east of the highway does not have access to these services, limiting commercial development. This area is designated as a rural conservation area in the Legacy 2030 plan. According to planners there are some scattered residential subdivisions in Forsyth's rural conservation area that are served by septic systems, and several conservation subdivisions with clustered homes served by small package treatment plants with approximately 80 percent open space protected by conservation easements. 4.6 Public Policy Public policy can provide guidance on development form, restrictions on uses, or caps on allowable densities to help avoid some of the typical issues associated with indirect effects of a major roadway or other infrastructure improvement. The policies in place in the FLUSA now do impact some forms of development through traditional Euclidean zoning ordinances, and there are additional restrictions in the vicinity of the Salem Lake watershed. However, the policies generally do allow single-family residential and traditional commercial development where it is currently zoned, and planners noted that residential development is permitted by-right in Forsyth County on any parcel. In addition, the sewer service area boundary line in Forsyth County is Hwy 66, providing service south, so that the service area boundary functions as a growth management boundary. There are no plans to change this boundary or to extend service outside of the service area. There is no substantive difference in the influence of existing growth management policy between the alignment alternatives through Sections A and B. A northerly bypass of Stokesdale in Section C would be closer to Rockingham and hence more open to development without the same level of protection afforded by Guilford County. This factor was assessed as "medium-low" for the northern alignment alternative. Chapter 4.0: Analytical Screening Page 32 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 5.0 Indirect Effects Matrix Chapter 4 summarizes the results of the Indirect Effects Matrix, noting the primary factors that affected the result. The screening matrix assessment includes the option to widen US 158 using an overall "best fit" in Sections A and B, and the Northern Bypass of Stokesdale (Alternative 3) in Section C. These alternatives have been chosen by NCDOT as the NEPA preferred alternative. Although there is a large amount of available land in the FLUSA and the proposed improvements will result in 11 to 12 minutes of travel time savings, low forecasted employment growth, limited water and sewer availability and stringent local land use policies make the indirect impacts on land use less likely, but merit a land use assessment. Figure 11 shows the results of the Indirect Effects Matrix. Chapter 5.0: Indirect Effects Matrix Page 33 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Figure 11: Indirect Effects Matrix Indirect Effects Matrix - R-2577, US 158 Widening Forecasted Notable Natural Travel Tirne Forecasted WatedSewer Market for Scope of Project Savings Population Growth Employment Available Land Availability Development Public Policy Environmental Result Growth Features Ratin Services available Notable Feature(s): More > 10 minute travel > 3% annualized > 3% annualized 40% or greater of Development Activity Less stringent; no High (SO - 100 % of FLUSA Abundant / More Conce�n time savings population growth employment growth available land served) %�undant growth management Sensitive High x x Medium-High Medium X X X Possible Land Use Scenario Assessment Medium-Low x x x x Low Limited or no service Notable Feature(s): Less No population growth No employment 0- 9% of available available now or in No Development More stringent; growth Concern Low No travel time savings or decline growth or decline land future (0 - 20% of Activity management Minimal / Less FLUSA served) Sensitive "Keter to �Gt Guitlance uocument tor reting descriptions Chapter 5.0: Indirect Effects Matrix Page 34 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 6.0 Probable Development Areas Chapter 5 provides an overview of the Probable Development Areas (PDA) associated with the project. PDAs are identified areas that may develop differently with or without the construction of the project. This section also predicts how each PDA would develop under the No-Build and Build Scenarios. These predictions are related to the local land use policies, adopted zoning regulations, the current development trends in the area, as well as development trends in and around similar nodes. A total of three PDAs were identified along US 158. All three of the PDAs are along �� `�"�d z�'" � •, - � existing US 158 in Forsyth County and were =s-;� \'� 4 �I based on areas identified in either the �= '� `� '+'� � � tl Legacy 2030 Update plan, or the two o� �� - � _,,,_ �„ ,; associated small area lans within the � �'��" p o= �— r FLUSA. As discussed in Section 1.1 of this "" ;� ��'� t� _- ,° �p ^ �. . . Ka,,,n .�; ' ' report, the Legacy plan established GMAs �.,,,,,, � i - � . ti. � to concentrate development at activity �' - , centers, including one along US 158. GMA 5 - � ';, _ — Rural Area is the growth management � ; - area for an extended part of US 158 in �' t`, ;� " �j'��, E�„��.: f � - Forsyth County, and is outside of the water � "��,� ��;�, ep Map3-2 and sewer service area. This area is not °ro"'"'"'"'"9""""P''" planned for future public sewer and other services since it is not cost effective, and is Growth Management Plan from the Legacy 2030 Update Plan intended to remain low density residential. For this reason, there are no PDAs in GMA 5. The small area plans identified additional activity centers, and also made recommendations for areas for increased land use intensity. No PDAs were identified in Guilford County because the Northern Bypass around Stokesdale was chosen as the NEPA preferred alternative and does not provide additional access to parcels in the area. The size and shape of the PDAs are based on discussions with planners, and are shown in Figure 12. Chapter 6.0: Probable Development Areas Page 35 52 . � � � Winston-Salem � 311 PDA 1 Legend ■•��i R-2577 - Widen Existing Alignment � Probable Development Areas Q FLUSA Interstate 0 Winston Salem Beltway NC Route L___i County Boundary US Route o� ��" Wa I ke rtown - PDA 3 158 40 66 Kern�r�ville FLUSA r��rf°ik �' - nt� --r-- — -f— -�—� — ;_---�>—�, - ;�i -z F,ti,� rL' ,F j 1 � ,.� �-, ,� ti ,� � _� � f•,�y, L � !1 ' �--. i �.-'/�`T � �I , 1, '�y�P, nG:�. ille ,-�, , ,, •._ � _ � Sl�r fo ! 5.� , .i , .�;- � � ,_�ty.i ,�,�i ..,�< j---�._�- % ,� "�.�q' i ! �\ - - '�� `�� t ' . � il , �lei.g�i; '�%�'1��_ — �; �i (�C_ �, y j` .._.J� _ _ _�. `�__,1�___L1,. � � �.—,..`` ( S' ^`\ ' ``_- �'—�`s��,~� J 1-'r--��fJ�,ti _�1�^/�..' '�' 'Ci��'�� .-ti iy `\ �' ,�I Graern�il I� __L _ �� \ . � l_ � ,Y_ i J, ' ,, = , _ �' �. ,/ ', ;, '`-- � �\ 1 � �4�i� •\ �~` � � .... •� / `S 1% Columbia �� `� �' t� �'�--- � FIGURE 12 - PROBABLE DEVELOPMENT AREAS 0 0.25 0.5 1 Miles e Date September2018 This map is for reference only. Sources: ESRI Inc., CGIA, NCDOT, and AECOM. FNORIH�� h � Q�G� NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT �` � OF TRANSPORTATION ` DIVISION OF HIGHWAYS pP 4��~��OFtRPN��O R-2577 - US 158 IMPROVEMENTS FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 6.1 Existing Conditions This section describes the existing conditions in each of the PDAs including the availability of water and sewer services, current and proposed land use, and anticipated land use changes both with and without the project. 6.1.1 PDA 1— Old Belews Creek Road Special Land Use Condition Area PDA 1 comprises a six acre area at the southern intersection of US 158 and Old Belews Creek Road. Old Belews Creek Road and US 158 is an unsignalized intersection. Land use within the vicinity of the intersection is primarily single family residential, but there are also two gas stations and a carwash within the PDA. Currently, the PDA is zoned primarily as RS-9 for high density single family detached dwellings, with some parcels having a designation of RM-8 which allows for multifamily uses. The parcels containing the carwash and gas stations are zoned LB which allows limited business uses. The PDA is entirely within the GMA 3(Suburban Neighborhoods) defined in the Legacy 2030 Plan. GMA 3"consists of neighborhoods built after World War Il, and is where most development has occurred in recent decades. The area has a more separated growth pattern of different land uses with subdivisions that cater to specific housing styles and price ranges, featuring curvilinear streets that often lack connectivity". The area to the east of Old Belews Creek Road is within the Salem Lake Watershed, a WS-III watershed, and is therefore regulated by state regulations limiting development. WS III regulations regulate watersheds that are used as sources of drinking water and development is limited to low and moderate intensity. The watershed is also regulated in the City of Winston Salem and Forsyth County Unified Development Ordinance (UDO) regulations (under the Salem Lake Watershed Protection Ordinance) that in some cases exceed the state minimum requirements to provide a greater level of water quality protection. The intersection was identified in the Northeast Suburban Area Plan as a Special Land Use Condition Area which is intended to consolidate office and commercial uses, and which would require that several parcels go through a rezoning process. The vision for the area would be to rezone existing residential properties as office or low intensity commercial uses. Winston-Salem planners do not anticipate any commercial or office development outside of this designated area according to interviews conducted. Water and sewer service is available throughout the PDA. The PDA includes 10 parcels totaling 5.9 acres, of which three are designated by the area plan as commercial parcels and the remaining seven parcels are designated as office or low intensity commercial. There are no notable features identified in Sections 2.6 and 2.7 in PDA 1 and no indirect or cumulative impacts are anticipated to those resources as a result of any development in PDA 1. Land use in PDA 1 is summarized in Table 9 and shown on Figure 13. 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K � <' Q s.��', � '-�,,DGAITHER RD= 's��` Q '�/�,/ � ,Y� , � �j�O r � j- �•Z' ...3��/� ��'�� %, �.e+` x �m, �r�, .'Sr m �otM' , J �� 'r f. r• �..� Q;� ' .,� ,,�-:�o,, ��. � :; *. : �� ; . °°�` "�,�,� y` �� ;siw. i/ � �� ` ;:�_:es:. :I�I � � �' - � ��;��.�° �� ^,�.,� �/NC`�Center�,,foriGeograph�ic�-Informa'�io�� An�f_ �is�� Legend ■■■■■■ R-2577 Special Land Use Condition Area � PDA 1 from the Northeast Suburban Area Plan N � Office/Low Intensity Commercial � � Salem Lake WS-III � Commercial 0 100 200 400 Feet I i i i I i i i I Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties No-Build Scenario PDA 1 is expected to develop without the project. The future land use designated in the Northeast Suburban Area Plan is office and commercial uses, and is expected to develop with these types of land use regardless of the project, according to local planners. The UDO would permit office and commercial uses only in the 5-acre site with a rezoning application. Development patterns with or without the project are expected to be the same. Development outside of the commercial site is expected to continue at existing rates and includes infill single family residential in a surrounding suburban area. Build Scenario The project is expected to have little effect on the 5-acre commercial designated site according to local planners. The only commercial development that would be permitted in this vicinity along the corridor is the designated commercial and office site of 5 acres. Commercial and office development outside of this designated area would not be permitted under the current UDO. Local planners anticipate that development at this site will accelerate when the Beltline opens in 2019 due to its proximity to the highway. Development patterns with and without the project are expected to be the same. 6.1.2 PDA 2— Old Belews Creek Road Activity Center PDA 2 is located at the northern intersection of Old Belews Creek Road and US 158, and is just to the south of the Winston Salem Northern Beltway interchange with US 158 which is currently being constructed. There are two offset intersections with Old Belews Creek Road, one which heads southwest, and a second intersection approximately 500 feet north at which Old Belews Creek Road heads northeast. Both intersections are currently unsignalized, and will remain so after the completion of the Northern Beltway; however a signalized intersection will be constructed at the eastbound on/off ramps. Land use within PDA 2 includes mainly vacant and agricultural land and, as with PDA 1, PDA 2 is within the GMA 3(Suburban Neighborhoods). The entire PDA is zoned RS-9 and is also within the Salem Lake Watershed. The Walkertown Small Area Plan (2014) identified the area around the intersection of Old Belews Creek Road and US 158 as an activity center that would serve the southeastern section of the planning area which lacks sewer service facilities. Activity centers, as defined in the Legacy 2030 plan, have the potential to accommodate denser mixed use development, including higher density residential. The goal of the activity centers is to cluster services in convenient locations, promote a mixture of land uses, and accommodate multi-modal transportation. The small area plan notes that the area around the intersection of Old Belews Creek and US 158 has the potential to be comprehensively developed with a mix of commercial, service, office, institutional and multifamily residential uses in a pedestrian oriented environment. The entirety of the PDA is within the Salem Lake Watershed, and the small area plan notes that any development would have to meet watershed regulations. There is no water and sewer in the PDA, which would further limit the intensity of development. The PDA also contains the Whicker farm which is participating in the Forsyth County VAD program. The PDA includes 10 parcels, totaling 64.4 acres, of which seven parcels are designated by the small area plan as low density attached residential, two are mixed use and one is commercial. Aside from the Whicker farm VAD, there are no other notable features identified in Section 2.6 or 2.7 in PDA 2. The Whicker farm may experience indirect effects as a result of development pressures on the farm, but no additional indirect or cumulative impacts are anticipated to those resources identified in Section 2.6 or 2.7. Land use in PDA 2 is summarized in Table 10 and shown on Figure 14. Chapter 6.0: Probable Development Areas Page 39 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Table 10: Land use summary — PDA 2 *May not total 100 percent due to land deemed to be undevelopable No Build Scenario PDA 2 is expected to develop, but more slowly, without the project; however local planners noted that land use within the PDA will likely be influenced by the completion of the Winston Salem Beltway. Development that would be permitted under the current land use classification and development ordinance includes office, mixed use, and commercial uses. The surrounding land use classification is moderate density residential development. Sewer service would have to be extended to this area in order to support commercial uses. Build Scenario PDA 2 has more development potential with the construction of the project according to local planners. The development patterns with and without the project are expected to be the same however in combination with anticipated increased mobility and faster travel times associated with the build scenario, planners noted the project may result in demand for higher density residential and commercial development. This is especially true when the project is considered in conjunction with the influences of the Winston Salem Beltway. The UDO currently permits low density residential, commercial and mixed use development in the PDA; however if the demand increased for higher-density single family residential and commercial and mixed use development, sewer service would need to be extended to this area, and the development would likely go through a rezoning process. In addition, any development would have to conform to the state and UDO regulations for the Salem Lake Watershed. 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's',� I� �. �F .��r l ,Y"Apc• y*R � :, � i � � � �f� ��,, , � S � �x� !,'�� ,�� r �� `� � .� � ; � _ ,V►�;. �i . .. �d �z• Legend •••••• R-2577 � PDA 2- Old Belews Creek Activity Center � Salem Lake WS-III � Winston Salem Beltway Voluntary Agricultural District Parcel Old Belews Creek Activity Center �—I Office/Low Intensity Commercial N � Commercial � � Mixed Use 0 125 250 500 Feet I i i i I i i i I Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 6.1.3 PDA 3— US 158/NC 66 Activity Center PDA 3 is located at the intersection of NC 66 (Old Hollow Road) and US 158 in Walkertown. The intersection of NC 66 and US 158 is a signalized intersection, and many of the developed areas have service roads connecting to the various parcels. Land use on the eastern side of the intersection is largely commercial with grocery stores, fast food restaurants, gas stations and other retail. These areas are zoned HB (Highway Business) which allows for retail service and distributive services. There are also pockets of GB (general business) and RM-18 (moderate density multifamily). On the western side of US 158, there are single family homes which front US 158. The zoning in this area is RS 20 which accommodates single family detached dwellings. The PDA is located mostly in GMA 3; however a parcel on the northwestern side of the intersection falls within GMA 4. GMA 4"is adjacent to GMA 3, but does not currently have public sewer or other public infrastructure necessary to support urban or suburban development. Significant development in this area is discouraged until plans for development are prepared and utilities become available" (Legacy 2030 Plan). The US 158/NC 66 Activity Center was identified in the original Legacy 2030 Plan and refined in the Walkertown area plan. The plan called for commercial and intermediate density residential land uses on the east side of US 158 and mixed use and low density attached residential on the west side. Much of the land to the south of NC 66 is within the Salem Lake Watershed which limits the intensity of development. NC 66 also serves as the limit of sewer availability, so development within the PDA (and beyond) is limited in intensity on the north side of NC 66. Water and sewer service is available within the PDA; however, as noted, utility services end to the north of NC 66 and any development would have to rely on septic systems and wells until services are extended. The PDA contains approximately 106 acres of land and is comprised of a total of 42 parcels. The area plan designates two parcels in the northwest quadrant of the intersection as low density attached land use; 31 parcels in the northeastern and southeastern quadrants as commercial; four parcels in the northeastern and southeastern quadrants as intermediate density residential, and five parcels in the southwest quadrant as mixed use. There are no notable features identified in Sections 2.6 and 2.7 in PDA 3 and no indirect or cumulative impacts are anticipated to those resources as a result of any development in PDA 3. Land use in PDA 3 is summarized inTable 11 and shown on Figure 11. Table 11: Land use summary — PDA 3 *May not total 100 percent due to land deemed to be undevelopable Chapter 6.0: Probable Development Areas Page 42 F �4 � � � x � g . � � �� ,� fI -.b ft ?-_ �.: Figure 15 - PDA 3�� y.� �, �,� � � �=� �y a �� , , i� f , r � � n.�h � ,: ��'v�,. d � . ,� j �,a�; �' e r P,�:+� ,. �- .;'`T,� ' 1 ' ;r �s �',��'i� ��', �h,,� ^ e � ��- 158 '-'�`�` � , x �' d � x �+�� , �.' ° �o, .� / . �� ,� �,`� ,t: � � F, r� � ,4 i , y �� a� � , �� '��. 3 � ,�: , � :� �, � a �-;� � � �� ' d G � j l� � . `r�� '�� / �' . t � � ��,�J � 'j � A / , � $'�'� �� /":'� f �as � � F .� ��,;: .. � � , k'3� � � � ra *- �:;r � ..i ,� ��;�',,';�� ',�� " � �k� �' ,.� g-- .,��` ' �'� �� ' � � ',�" � ' s,- � �:.. .� �� ,��, ,� � ,o �,�;� y.z� �b�:• ' � ,�-� �� a 7 F, � �` �� f ,A ��' t� '� � 3 �� ;�G � � r� r � '� ' �° �. g �G � �'� � �� ,1 �� ? �,;. � �? �,�i �"<R,� � - � ; �, P �' � � �r �� I ? GU�i � � e� �.-.. 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'; �„„� �.�� '�`" • �Y4 r , -�_ �'� �ARTINS TRA 'S°'� _ �r ` s�'p6" 158 _ r , �' } ��r�� ` � �� ;�e � � � � � �, . �� Cd bi� e f y . 2 L . � if � i�v : .��r y s9' rIi � a '4� ti''�.�' :'ca �, i� 'i 3� l�.� �` 6` .. � !' �,r''�5. � li'��^s� F 9 f' � �ed � i ✓ � W ` / F� ��f 4d , -, � �1' - ,. � �¢ �t � � �`� y�� r y a � ��t�s� � r iv /.r* ,S• � � � Ct�+ � �� s�. � �f � i �Y6i`� �.� . M�� , �,rb��';�� *�,�r� , .Y�ufi f' l� .;r � �e �� i� �� ; f� �% � ♦ ly/�E'". ,`�/°' .�^��;,, r .. , ,y� ,� _ sNC;Center for Ge,o ra hic;lnform� �i is ,� • � �i � ,� .rfd`a ,�� ' _ u�' �O;,yr�• _ r.� ..., . 9 P � Legend ■■■■■■ R-2577 US 158/NC 66 Activity Center I, _� Mixed-Use �PDA 3- US 158lNC 66 Activity � Commercial j j Intermediate Density N Center U Residential � �, I�� Low Density ;;� Salem Lake WS-III 0 250 500 1,000 Feet I i i i I i i i I Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties No Build Scenario Land use in areas currently zoned for highway commercial uses and general business will continue to develop without the project. Moderate density multi-family uses are also expected to develop with or without the project according to land use plan policies and zoning. The PDA area located on the northwestern side of the intersection that falls within GMA 4 is expected to develop at a lower density as utilities are not currently available. The US 158/NC 66 Activity Center will continue with commercial development and moderate density residential land uses on the east side of US 158 and mixed use and low density residential on the west side. Development is limited at NC 66 due to the limits of the sewer service area, so development is expected to be limited in intensity. Much of the land to the south of NC 66 is within the Salem Lake Watershed , so development will be limited in intensity due to watershed restrictions. Development north of NC 66 is expected to be limited and would have to be served by septic systems. According to local planners, PDA 3 is expected to develop more slowly without the project. The development patterns with and without the project are expected to be similar. Development does have some limitations due to the sewer service area boundary at Highway 66 that constrains commercial development outside of the sewer service area. Build Scenario PDA 3 has experienced a lot of development in the past 15 years according to local planners, and available land is more limited. Much of the development would be infill with more multi-family and commercial development when access improves, and land becomes more attractive to developers. Development does have some limitations due to the sewer service area boundary at Highway 66 that constrains commercial development outside of the sewer service area, as well as watershed regulation restrictions. Commercial and higher density residential development is expected to occur at an accelerated pace in areas served by sewer service, especially in-fill development on vacant and underutilized parcels. Development in unserved areas and where watershed regulations apply will develop at lower densities and intensities similar to the no build scenario. Chapter 6.0: Probable Development Areas Page 44 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 7.0 Evaluation of Scenarios Chapter 6 evaluates the differences between the No-Build and Build scenarios in the following areas: scope of development, development intensity, regional population and employment growth, pressure for land development, and planned/managed uses and impacts. 7.1 Scope of Development The potential scope of development as a result of the construction of R-2577 is higher than in the No- Build scenario. According to planners, the areas around PDAs 1 and 3 are expected to develop with or without the project. PDA 2 will develop faster with the project, but will likely be equally as influenced by the completion of the Winston Salem Beltway. Approximately 33 percent of land within the PDAs is currently developed. Although the project would not be providing access to new property, decreased travel times and a more efficient transportation roadway could make some of the properties within the PDAs more attractive for development. Under the build scenario, an estimated 60 percent of land within the PDAs would be developed, with the majority of the additional development occurring in PDA 2, which has ample vacant land and is adjacent to the new Winston Salem Beltway. The majority of the development in the PDAs is anticipated to be commercial, office and mixed use (including residential). Under the No-Build scenario, development would be expected to continue at previous rates increasing from 33 percent currently to 45 percent within the time horizon of the proposed Build scenario. Planners indicated that the types of development in the PDAs would not differ under the Build and No- Build scenarios. 7.2 Development Intensity The current development pattern in PDA 1 is commercial and single family residential. In PDA 2 the development patterns are rural residential and in PDA 3 the development pattern is strip commercial on the east side of US 158 and single family residential on the west side of US 158. Under the Build scenario, the intensity of development would not likely change in PDAs 1 and 3, but according to local planners PDA 2 could see an increase in demand for higher density residential and commercial uses. However the increased intensity will not likely br high enough to change scores in this category in the build scenario. All three of the PDAs are within the Salem Lake Watershed and any development would have to conform to state and local watershed restrictions. Under the No-Build scenario, development intensity would be expected to remain mostly the same. Chapter 7.0: Evaluation of Scenarios Page 45 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 7.3 Future Shift of Regional Population Growth Population in the FLUSA is projected to grow at a projected 1.1 percent annualized rate. Local planners noted that there has been some recent development particularly in PDA 3. The Build scenario would help reduce travel times and could lead to population growth near the corridor and specifically in PDA 2 where there is the most available and undeveloped land, although this growth is not expected to outpace the remainder of the FLUSA. Under the No Build scenario, population growth projections would be similar to FLUSA projections. 7.4 Future Shift of Regional Employment Growth Projections for employment growth for the FLUSA are projected to be relatively low with an annualized growth rate of 0.5 percent. Local planners noted that employment growth is occurring in the FLUSA near the Piedmont Triad International Airport. The Build scenario is expected to partially (in conjunction with the Winston Salem Beltway) induce commercial development at PDA 2; therefore employment growth is expected to be slightly greater in the Build scenario than the FLUSA as a whole. Local planners have indicated that in the No-Build scenario, employment growth within the PDAs would be similar to the projections for the FLUSA. 7.5 Pressure for Land Development Outside of Regulated Areas The PDAs are subject to a combination of regulations which include the Winston Salem/Forsyth County land classifications and UDO and the Salem Lake Watershed development restrictions. The existing regulations and the growth management boundary that limits development in unserved areas would limit development outside of regulated areas both in the Build and No-Build scenario. 7.6 Planned/Managed Land Use and Impacts There are existing land use management plans, growth management boundary, and watershed restrictions in place for all of the PDA's. The Legacy 2030 plan directs all non-residential development Chapter 7.0: Evaluation of Scenarios Page 46 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties into activity centers and special land use areas. The Salem Lake Watershed also limits the intensity of development that can occur within its watershed boundary. The WWSA serves as the growth management boundary in Forsyth County. 8.0 Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix Chapter 7 summarizes the results of the Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix. The matrix was completed based on the northern bypass of Stokesdale as it has been chosen as the NEPA preferred alternative by NCDOT. The Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix resulted in "Indirect Land Use Impacts Not Likely". The matrix showed that when compared to the No-Build Scenario, the Build Scenario would likely not result in increased or more intense development. The overall growth projections for the FLUSA are relatively low both in terms of population and employment projections. Further, there are fairly stringent land use restrictions along US 158 that affect all of the PDAs. The two scenarios differed in the results in the Scope of Development category because of decreased travel times associated with the project, and Future Shift of Regional Employment Growth category since planners anticipate induced development in PDA 2 as a result of the project. The two scenarios had the same results in the remaining categories. As a result, indirect and cumulative effects from the project are not likely. Chapter 8.0: Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix Page 47 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Figure 16: Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix - R-2577 US 158 Widening Future Shift of Future Shift ot Pressure for Land Scope of Development Planned ! Managed Regional Population Regional Employment Development Outside Result Development Intensity Growth Growth Regulated Areas �nd Use and Impacts Rating 40% or Greater Change Higher Development Strong Attraction of Strong Attraction of All PDAs are Outside a Land Development and in Developed Land within Intensities Anticipated Development in the PDAs Development in this Area Regulated Area Stormwater Management the PDAs Goals Not Set More Concern High Medium-High Medium Build Scenario No-Build and Build No-Build and Build guild Scenario Scenarios Scenarios No-Build and Build Indirect Land Use Medium-LOW No-Build Scenario No-Build Scenario Scenarios Impacts Not Likely LOw No-Build and Build Scenarios Less Concern Land Development, 0-9% Change in Stormwater Management Developed Land within No Current or Proposed No Population Shift Likely N° Employment Shift All PDAs are Inside a Goals, and Growth the PDAs Development Anticipated Likely Regulated Area Management Provisions in Place 'Keter to LUSA Guitlance Uocument tor rating descnptions Chapter 8.0: Land Use Scenario Assessment Matrix Page 48 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 9.0 Indirect and Cumulative Effects Assessment Chapter 8 provides a water quality statement that summarizes the major water quality impacts that could result from this project. Qualitative analyses of the probable development patterns in the FLUSA suggest that changes in land use resulting from the project and subsequent private and public development actions are not likely to notably increase impervious surface over the No-Build scenario. There are adopted ordinances and regulations that mitigate potential water quality effects due to increased impervious surfaces and water runoff. All municipalities within the FLUSA have stormwater ordinances that establish density and intensity standards for development, which would minimize impacts resulting from increases in imperviousness. Much of the FLUSA is located in unserved areas of Forysth County where the sewer service area functions as a growth management boundary and service to much of this area is not anticipated within the planning horizon. The potential for the degradation of water quality also exists through erosion and stream sedimentation. Any direct natural environmental impacts by NCDOT projects would be addressed by avoidance, minimization, and mitigation consistent with programmatic agreements with the natural resource agencies during the Merger and Permitting processes. Chapter 9.0: Indirect and Cumulative Effects Assessment Page 49 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Sources City of Greensboro Water Resources. (2017). 2017 Annual Sewage Collection and Water Reclamation Repot. Retrieved from https://www.�reensboro-nc.�ov/home/showdocument?id=36957 City of Greensboro. (2018). Greensboro Water Quality Index Map. Retrieved from https://�is.�reensboro-nc.�ov/WaterQualitvindex/ City of Greensboro. (n.d.) Water Status Update. Retrieved from https://www.�reensboro- nc.�ov/departments/water-resources/water-system/water-status-update City of Greensboro, Connections 2025 Comprehensive Plan, 2003 City of Winston Salem. (2017). Water Quality Report 2017. Retrieved from http://cityofws.or�/waterquality2017 City of Winston Salem. (2018). Wastewater Operations. Retrieved from http://www.cityofws.or�/Departments/Utilities/Operations/Wastewater-Operations Labor and Economic Analysis Division, NC Department of Commerce. (2014). Employment Projections. Retrieved from https://nccareers.or�/emploVmentprolections/industry employment prolections.html# Greensboro Urban Area MPO. 2015. 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan. Connections 2025 Comprehensive Plan in 2003 NCDOT Indirect and Cumulative Effects Screening Report, US 158 Improvements (R-2577), October 2012 NCDOT Community Impact Assessment, US 158 Improvements (R-2577), March 2018 NCDOT 2018 — 2027 Final STIP, 2018 Stokesdale Land Use Plan Review Committee. 2007. Stokesdale Future Land Use Plan. US Census Bureau. (2016). County Business Patterns. Retrieved from https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=BP_2015_OOA1&pr odType=table Winston-Salem and Forsyth County City-County Planning Board. 2013. Legacy 2030. Winston-Salem and Forsyth County City-County Planning Board. 2014. Walkertown Area Plan. Winston-Salem and Forsyth County City-County Planning Board. 2017. NortheastSuburban Area Plan. Winston-Salem Urban Area MPO. 2012. Comprehensive Transportation Plan. Winston-Salem Urban Area MPO. 2015. 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan. Sources Page 50 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Appendix A: Interviews . Kirk Ericson Name: Principal Planner Title: City of Winston Salem Planning Comprehensive and Urban Design Agency: Planning Phone: 336-747-7045 Email: kirke@cityofws.org First Contact Date Method(s) Result ❑ Email ❑ Form returned on: Clicl< here to enter a date. 8/8/2018 ❑X Phone ❑X Interviewed on: 8/8/2018 ❑ In-person ❑ No response Comments: Click here to enter text. . Name: Oliver Bass Title: Planner Agency: Guilford County Planning and Development Phone: 336-641.3758 Email: obass@guilfordcountync.gov First Contact Date Method(s) Result ❑ Email ❑ Form returned on: Clicl< here to enter a date. 8/14/2018 ❑X Phone OX Interviewed on: 8/14/2018 ❑ In-person ❑ No response Comments: Click here to enter text. . Name: Rochelle Joseph Title: Community Development Manager Agency: Town of Kernersville, NC Planning Department Phone: 336-992-0705 Email: RJoseph@toknc.com First Contact Date Method(s) Result ❑ Email ❑ Form returned on: Clicl< here to enter a date. 8/8/2018 ❑X Phone �X Interviewed on: 8/14/2018 ❑ In-person ❑ No response Comments: Click here to enter text. Appendix A: Interviews Page 51 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Completed ICE Comprehensive Interview Forms NCDOT Community Studies Group, Human Environment Section �o poatu q ti qo Gi Comprehensive Interview Form for s a��°`�""�`��4P STIP Project R-25%7 LAND USE SCENARIO ASSESSMENT Contact Information Interviewee Name: Kirk Ericson Date: 8/8/2018 Title/Position: Principal Planner Phone Number:336-747-7045 Organization/Agency: City of Winston Salem Planning Comprehensive and Urban Design Planning Email: kirke@cityofws.org Completed via: ❑ Email � Phone Interview Information/Instructions Note to Interviewer: Complete all sections highlighted in yellow on pages 1-6 before conducting interview. If completed by phone: Interviewed By (Name/Organization): Cindy Camacho, AECOM, August 8, 2018. If completed by email: Using the project information and map below, please respond to the following questions by typing your answers in the space provided. Then save (using the Save As command) this file with a new file name for your records and e-mail the new file back to the original sender. If you would prefer to complete a hard copy of this form, please send all sheets to the address or fax number below: Cindy.Camacho@aecom.com Project Information NCDOT proposes to improve US 158 from north of US 421/ I-40 Business in Winston-Salem to US 220 in Stokesdale for a total length of approximately 18.8 miles. The project is included in the NC Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) as project number R-2577 and proposes to widen the existing two-lane US 158 roadway to a multi-lane, median divided facility, including a new location section to bypass the existing US 158 alignment in Stokesdale. The R-2577 project is divided into three sections: A. Section A begins west of Old Greensboro Road (SR 2357) in Winston-Salem and extends to Old Belews Creek Road (SR 1965) in Forsyth County. B. Section B begins at Old Belews Creek Road (SR 1965) in Forsyth County and extends to Anthony Appendix A: Interviews Page 52 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Road (SR 2034) in Stokesdale (Guilford County). C. Section C begins at Anthony Road (SR 2034) in Stokesdale and extends to the junction of US 158 and US 220, including a new location bypass section of existing US 158. Right-of-way acquisition and construction for each of the three sections will occur independently. Environmental documents and permits for the project will include all three project sections. The current 2017-2027 Draft STIP includes funding for Section A only, with initial right-of-way acquisition scheduled to begin in FY 2020 and construction in FY 2022. Sections B and C of the project are currently unfunded. The purpose of the project is to improve traffic flow and level-of-service (LOS) along US 158. The project will improve existing and anticipated transportation deficiencies associated with the growth of new residential communities in northwest Forsyth County and transitioning rural to suburban land uses along the corridor and its vicinity into Guilford County. d i i i i i K'rng ' Stokes County j'_'�•"""_'___._ �"..� � ___ Danbury ; E � i �ladison i i L++ i Walnut Cove � Rural Fiall • Tobaccoville Start Project ez Lewisvi '�inston-Sale Legend R 257] O FLUSA � w�s�o� saiem eei�way �__j CaUn,�FOundery Walkertown � A� A � J ; End� Project u ' (sa1 � isa ._'___'�'__J'.�._.`.�.____�'�._._' �. i Stokesdale '-'-'-"'-'- ----- "BIC � Y2D �� Oak Ridge ia Wentworth Reidsville Guilford County FIGURE 1- FUT9IRE LAND USE ST�1�Y AREA 0 2 L e esae�,n�9 �sHi i�,� �,u n� 20 FLUSA :rlle ��1^� �� , � ' + k"i .�h i � � �-�l�dflh$E3�� , �5-- i� �.i ��i*Pnwllc � � , " . ___ � �'I.% 1�: �C�51iimGie � NOPTH CAROLINA L1EPdR I OF TRANSPfAPTFiI�N ��5�`�' DNISIUNUFHIGHWAYS y�..,,. R-2577-US 1581MRROVEME FORSYTH ANO GUILFORD COU Appendix A: Interviews Page 53 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Verify and Update Information from the ICE Report Please provide a detailed response in the field provided or check the box if the question Check if is not applicable. item is nor applicable: Future Land Use StudyArea (FLUSA) Characteristics 1. Does the Preliminary ICE Study Time Horizon of 2040 seem appropriate for this project Required particularly in terms of consistency with the planning horizons of local transportation Question and land use plans? If not, please indicate what the year should be. yes 2. Are there notable public or private transportation, infrastructure, or development ❑ N/A projects underway or foreseeable in the FLUSA? Please describe the current status of these projects, noting if they are permitted or planned. The first section of the Northern Beltway is under construction and will open in 2019, opening future development opportunities in these areas. 3. How do population and employment trends within the FLUSA compare to the county ❑ N/A or multi-county area trends? Are there areas of the FLUSA that are growing or declining more so than other areas? Solid growth is occurring in Walkertown, Kernersville, and residential development in Oakridge and Stokesdale, but most is large lot residential served by septic systems. Development is occurring near the Greensboro Piedmont Airport, and at the newly developing Amazon distribution center near the Guilford/Forsyth county line. 4. Please verify the accuracy and completeness of the Human Environmental Features ❑ N/A Map provided above. Are there additional features that should be included? No omissions (maps were emailed) 5. Please verify the accuracy and completeness of the Natural Environmental Features ❑ N/A Map provided above. Are there additional features that should be included? No omissions (maps were emailed) Additional comments or information regarding FLUSA Characteristics: None Appendix A: Interviews Page 54 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report Growth and Development TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 6. Is the FLUSA currently served by water and sewer service? If not, are there plans and funding to extend service? The sewer service area boundary line in Forsyth County is Hwy 66, providing service south, so that the service area boundary functions as a growth management boundary. Much of the area in Forsyth County that is outside of the sewer service area is designated rural conservation area. There are no plans to change this boundary or to extend service outside of the service area. Development pressures in Guilford County include areas of Stokesdale and Oakdale. 7. Please identify land/parcels within the FLUSA that are likely to be developed or sold Residential development is permitted by-right in Forsyth County on any parcel. 8. Describe the type and location of any public or private development that is currently occurring within the FLUSA. Most of the development occurring is residential subdivisions, with some industrial development near the Piedmont Triad Airport. Commercial development in Kernersville is occurring in the mostly in the urban core. ❑ N/A ❑ N/A ❑ N/A 9. Are there any known plans for public or private development in the FLUSA? If so, has � N/A this development been permitted and/or initiated yet? There are scattered residential subdivisions in Forsyth's rural conservation area that are served by septic systems. 10. How would development patterns likely be different if a) the project is built or b) the � N/A project is not built? Development patterns would not be different, but the rate of development may accelerate as a result of the project. The transition that is underway from rural to some suburban low density development will continue, just the rate would change. Additional comments or information regarding Growth and Development: none Appendix A: Interviews Page 55 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Public Policy 11. What are the local plans, policies, or regulations that pertain to development and � N/A growth within the FLUSA? The UDO, Legacy Comp Plan and Small Area Plans guide growth and development. 12. Describe the effectiveness of these plans, policies, and regulations at balancing � N/A development and natural resource protection within the FLUSA. According to Forsyth planners, the plans and ordinances do a good job managing growth and result in good planned development. Several planned residential clustered subdivisions with open space provisions have been developed in the Forsyth's rural conservation area, following plan options. Additional comments or information regarding Public Policy: none Next Steps 13. Should others be consulted regarding this Indirect and Cumulative Effects analysis? � N/A (e.g. municipal utilities, county planners, etc.) Kernersville, Jeff Hatling Additional comments or information regarding this Indirect and Cumulative Effects analysis: none Appendix A: Interviews Page 56 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report Land Use Scenario Assessment TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties PDA Name: PDA 1- Old Belews Creek Road and Reidsville Road (U5158) Special Land Use Condition Area General Description: Half mile vicinity of the intersection of Old Belews Creek Road and US 158. Land Availability Acres Percent Land Available fot' S ac triangle only, UDO does not permit 31.7% Development: commercial growth outside of planned 5 ac Undeveloped (vacantJ site and underutilized Developed Land 303.48 68.3% Tota I: 444.5 100% PDA Name: General Descriati Land Availabil Land Available for Development: Undeveloped (vacantJ and underutilized Developed Land Appendix A: Interviews PDA 2- Old Belews Creek Road Activity Center (Walkertown Small Area Plan) Half mile vicinitv of the intersection of Old Belews Creek Road and US 158. Acres 191.4 181.0 Percent 51.4% 48.6% Page 57 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Land Use Development Scenarios 1. Describe any public or private development that would be likely to occur in the near-term (next five years) within the Probable Development Areas (PDAs). None currently, but the opening of sections of the Beltway in 2019 will spur development, especially at interchange areas. 2. How would each of the PDAs likely develop if the proposed project is not constructed? Take into account the current zoning regulations and land use / comprehensive plan, if applicable. PDA 1- None PDA 2- the timing of development would be slower PDA 3- the timing of development would be slower 3. How would each of the PDAs likely develop if the proposed project is constructed? Take into account the current zoning regulations and land use / comprehensive plan, if applicable. PDA 1- Development will occur at interchange when Beltway opens PDA 2- More potential for development, but some limitations due to sewer service area boundary at Hwy 66 PDA 3- A lot of development in past 15 years, land is running out, so development is infill. With project more multi-family residential and commercial infill may occur Appendix A: Interviews Page 58 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 4. Would building the project influence the type (e.g. residential vs. commercial) and/or density of development within the PDAs? It would encourage higher density residential multi-family and commercial development if access improves, and land becomes more attractive to developers. 5. How does future population and employment growth within the PDAs compare to the surrounding area? For example, is future growth anticipated to be greater within the PDAs compared to the region? There is not much difference between job growth and population in PDA's compared with surrounding area. There is not a lot of job growth. Additional comments or information regarding Land Use Development Scenarios: Appendix A: Interviews Page 59 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties NCDOT Community Studies Group, Human Environment Section � NOAiy � �Pcy Comprehensive Interview Form for � p9��"'""��Qa STIP Project R-ZS77 LAND USE SCENARIO ASSESSMENT Contact Information Interviewee Name: Oliver Bass Date: Title/Position: Planner Phone Number: 336-641-3635 Organization/Agency: Guilford County Planning and Development �Eger); 336-641.3758 (Bass) Email: obass@guilfordcountync.gov Completed via: � Email ❑ Phone Interview Information/Instructions If completed by phone: Interviewed By (Name/Organization): Cindy Camacho, AECOM If completed by email: Using the project information and map below, please respond to the following questions by typing your answers in the space provided. Then save (using the Save As command) this file with a new file name for your records and e-mail the new file back to the original sender. If you would prefer to complete a hard copy of this form, please send all sheets to the address or fax number below: cindy.camacho@aecom.com NCDOT proposes to improve US 158 from north of US 421/ I-40 Business in Winston-Salem to US 220 in Stokesdale for a total length of approximately 18.8 miles. The project is included in the NC Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) as project number R-2577 and proposes to widen the existing two-lane U5158 roadway to a multi-lane, median divided facility, including a new location section to bypass the existing US 158 alignment in Stokesdale. The R-2577 project is divided into three sections: D. Section A begins west of Old Greensboro Road (SR 2357) in Winston-Salem and extends to Old Belews Creek Road (SR 1965) in Forsyth County. E. Section B begins at Old Belews Creek Road (SR 1965) in Forsyth County and extends to Anthony Road (SR 2034) in Stokesdale (Guilford County). F. Section C begins at Anthony Road (SR 2034) in Stokesdale and extends to the junction of US 158 and US 220, including a new location bypass section of existing US 158. Right-of-way acquisition and construction for each of the three sections will occur independently. Appendix A: Interviews Page 60 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Environmental documents and permits for the project will include all three project sections. The current 2017-2027 Draft STIP includes funding for Section A only, with initial right-of-way acquisition scheduled to begin in FY 2020 and construction in FY 2022. Sections B and C of the project are currently unfunded. The purpose of the project is to improve traffic flow and level-of-service (LOS) along US 158. The project will improve existing and anticipated transportation deficiencies associated with the growth of new residential communities in northeast Guilford County and transitioning rural to suburban land uses along the corridor and its vicinity. King Stokes County Fpf%yt{! CiOIIfITy _, � Rural Hall Lew Legend R 25i7 � F�usa � VNnslon $a9em �elhvey ��i Coun;r F.ountlary Danbury ; i i n i Madison __ i � i i 311 i�� VValnut Cove ; ' � End Project I � ifi8� "__"_ 169 .__�.�._"_'_._'_._.�.�__ti'__J'.�____.�.__—."_._._. _ 'r StOkeSdale _. �_._._"__ _•-•- i BIC i �ao � �Star€ Pro�ee� ��Ikertown ; Oak Ridge .AIB � 5aoi A Wentworth Reidsville Rockingham Cow Guilford County t9 FLUSA - i� , ,, .' -. � . � ._. `, �n,. �{i:�l C. J-� i - —^-t.__I1_.,1�_—I-��,.9�i�} ,- �-L�.IbYte,. . " �r?�nvill� '___ _ _ . Columb�a "��'�. `i . FIGURE 1- FUTWRE LAND USE SiUDY AREA 0 I A 8 � c�,�e,�_sRii�,.,..�..nca�r.,��oncmu. Verify and Update Information from the ICE Report Please provide a detailed response in the field provided or check the box if the question is not applicable. Future Land Use StudyArea (FLUSA) Characteristics 1��•, MOPTH CAROLINA �EPAP z� OFTRANSPOPTpTIOM � DIVISION OF HIGHWAVS� R-2577-US1581MPROVEME FORSYTH AND GWILFORD COII 6. Does the Preliminary ICE Study Time Horizon of 2040 seem appropriate for this project particularly in terms of consistency with the planning horizons of local transportation and land use plans? If not, please indicate what the year should be. 2030 This is the time horizon of Stokesdale's Land Use Plan. 7. Are there notable public or private transportation, infrastructure, or development projects underway or foreseeable in the FLUSA? Please describe the current status of Check if item is not applicable: Required Question ❑ N/A Appendix A: Interviews Page 61 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties these projects, noting if they are permitted or planned. No, but a sewer feasibility study is ongoing, but is unlikely to result in a planned facility in the next 20 years. 8. How do population and employment trends within the FLUSA compare to the county ❑ N/A or multi-county area trends? Are there areas of the FLUSA that are growing or declining more so than other areas? Stokesdale is growing at a somewhat higher level compared with the county. 9. Please verify the accuracy and completeness of the Human Environmental Features ❑ N/A Map provided above. Are there additional features that should be included? 10. Please verify the accuracy and completeness of the Natural Environmental Features ❑ N/A Map provided above. Are there additional features that should be included? Additional comments or information regarding FLUSA Characteristics: Growth and Development 11. Is the FLUSA currently served by water and sewer service? If not, are there plans and � N/A funding to extend service? Some water service along Hwy 158, the rest is served by wells. No sewer service in Stokesdale. 12. Please identify land/parcels within the FLUSA that are likely to be developed or sold. � N/A Parcels near interchanges. 13. Describe the type and location of any public or private development that is currently � N/A occurring within the FLUSA. Large lot subdivisions scattered throughout the FLUSA served by septic systems. 14. Are there any known plans for public or private development in the FLUSA? If so, has � N/A this development been permitted and/or initiated yet? no 15. How would development patterns likely be different if a) the project is built or b) the � N/A project is not built? Some development may occur on parcels that are provided with new access, but development patterns will continue to be mostly low density residential development, and some small scale retail at interchange area. Without the project the development will be mostly low density residential development served by septic systems. The Future Appendix A: Interviews Page 62 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 4dditional comments or information regarding Growth and Development: Public Policy 16. What are the local plans, policies, or regulations that pertain to development and � N/A growth within the FLUSA? The Future Land Use Plan, and Greensboro MTP, and Stokesdale Development Ordinance 17. Describe the effectiveness of these plans, policies, and regulations at balancing � N/A development and natural resource protection within the FLUSA. These plans are effective in regulating land use in the FLUSA, and state regulations address environmental regulations. Additional comments or information regarding Public Policy: Next Steps 18. Should others be consulted regarding this Indirect and Cumulative Effects analysis? (e.g. municipal utilities, county planners, etc.) no Additional comments or information regarding this Indirect and Cumulative Effects analysis: none Land Use Scenario Assessment , � ,,,�a�sa. �tiP�� ! ar�a.n�e wau,�i c�v ._._._'__"'_.—_"._'ll.'__'___�._._'_.__� nenxqn. j qs�aie � ...__ _ ._, . co� ��xaQ v ' nmo«acw„ry! � � �„nP p� I .,, swn,o��wnrei �, � oa��.R,uc� . ,� �� .�..�, � o°.,�.a ID.�,.T.�...AA. /.�usn Gceiei•.c !�f . sunii�- � MEu� or.v �nrnnus _ °•��.w••, •`. r.w"s`v'�:�ocu�"roa`o��H��es ia ,,..__rac'_' ❑ N/A Appendix A: Interviews Page 63 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Land Use Development Scenarios 19. Describe any public or private development that would be likely to occur in the near-term (next five years) within the Probable Development Areas (PDAs). Near-term, growth in the PDA will likely be low density single-family residential subdivisions. Most of the area in the PDA is zoned AG (Agricultural) or RS-40. They both support single-family residential development on 1 or more acre lots. This is consistent with the development that has occurred over the last 10 years and the goals of the land use plan. Small-scale commercial infill may occur near the interchanges with NC 68. Lack of public sewer and the community vision will limit the potential for more intense development. 20. How would each of the PDAs likely develop if the proposed project is not constructed? Take into account the current zoning regulations and land use / comprehensive plan, if applicable. Same as above. Most undeveloped land in the PDA is zoned AG. Generally, land use plan supports low density residential development for the area. Infill commercial development will most likely occur near NC 68, which is consistent with existing development trends. The possible extension of public sewer and water to the area will be the greatest driver of growth long-term. 21. How would each of the PDAs likely develop if the proposed project is constructed? Take into account the current zoning regulations and land use / comprehensive plan, if applicable. It will provide means of access to properties that previously had no practical alternatives. Any new development will likely be single-family residential subdivisions or agricultural related. Stokesdale will continue to be limited by the lack of a public sewer system. 22. Would building the project influence the type (e.g. residential vs. commercial) and/or density of development within the PDAs? The most likely scenario is that low density residential areas will continue to be the preferred development. Parcels that previously had no viable means of gaining street access will be open to development. A commercial node may develop near the NC 68 interchange. It will attract mainly small-scale commercial infill that do not require public water or sewer. The Future Land Use Plan directs most nonresidential growth to the US 158 corridor. The Town may consider other locations if public infrastructure is extended to the PDA. Appendix A: Interviews Page 64 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 23. How does future population and employment growth within the PDAs compare to the surrounding area? For example, is future growth anticipated to be greater within the PDAs compared to the region? Stokesdale is within the high growth area of Guilford County. Per 2016 estimates by NC OSBM, Stokesdale growth rate from 2010 to 2016 reached near 11 pct. That exceeded the county growth rate of just under 7 percent. Additional comments or information regarding Land Use Development Scenarios: Stokesdale is involved in a feasibility study for a regional sewer system. If implemented, available public sewer, combined with Town water, will attract growth long term to the PDA and Stokesdale at- large. Appendix A: Interviews Page 65 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties tE `µ�RTM a NCDOT Community Studies Group, Human Environment Section 4 q � Comprehensive Interview Form for y�f"'�F�R^`��p STIP Project R-ZS%7 LAND USE SCENARIO ASSESSMENT Contact Information Interviewee Name: Rochelle Joseph Date: 8.14.2018 Title/Position: Community Development Manager Phone Number:336-992-0705 Organization/Agency: Town of Kernersville, NC Planning Dept. Email: RJoseph@toknc.com Completed via: � Email ❑ Phone Interview Information/Instructions Note to Interviewer: Complete all sections highlighted in yellow on pages 1-6 before conducting interview. If completed by phone: Interviewed By (Name/Organization): Cindy Camacho, AECOM If completed by email: Using the project information and map below, please respond to the following questions by typing your answers in the space provided. Then save (using the Save As command) this file with a new file name for your records and e-mail the new file back to the original sender. If you would prefer to complete a hard copy of this form, please send all sheets to the address or fax number below: Cindy.camacho@aecom.com Project Information NCDOT proposes to improve US 158 from north of US 421/ I-40 Business in Winston-Salem to US 220 in Stokesdale for a total length of approximately 18.8 miles. The project is included in the NC Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) as project number R-2577 and proposes to widen the existing two-lane US 158 roadway to a multi-lane, median divided facility, including a new location section to bypass the existing US 158 alignment in Stokesdale. The R-2577 project is divided into three sections: G. Section A begins west of Old Greensboro Road (SR 2357) in Winston-Salem and extends to Old Belews Creek Road (SR 1965) in Forsyth County. H. Section B begins at Old Belews Creek Road (SR 1965) in Forsyth County and extends to Anthony Road (SR 2034) in Stokesdale (Guilford County). I. Section C begins at Anthony Road (SR 2034) in Stokesdale and extends to the junction of US 158 and US 220, including a new location bypass section of existing US 158. Right-of-way acquisition and construction for each of the three sections will occur independently. Appendix A: Interviews Page 66 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties Environmental documents and permits for the project will include all three project sections. The current 2017-2027 Draft STIP includes funding for Section A only, with initial right-of-way acquisition scheduled to begin in FY 2020 and construction in FY 2022. Sections B and C of the project are currently unfunded. The purpose of the project is to improve traffic flow and level-of-service (LOS) along US 158. The project will improve existing and anticipated transportation deficiencies associated with the growth of new residential communities in northeast Guilford County and transitioning rural to suburban land uses along the corridor and its vicinity. King Stokes County Fpf%yt{! CiOIIfITy _, � Rural Hall Lew Legend R 25i7 � F�usa � VNnslon $a9em �elhvey ��i Coun;r F.ountlary Danbury ; i i n i Madison __ i � i i 311 i�� VValnut Cove ; ' � End Project I � ifi8� "__"_ 169 .__�.�._"_'_._'_._.�.�__ti'__J'.�____.�.__—."_._._. _ 'r StOkeSdale _. �_._._"__ _•-•- i BIC i �ao � �Star€ Pro�ee� ��Ikertown ; Oak Ridge .AIB � 5aoi A Wentworth Reidsville Rockingham Cow Guilford County t9 FLUSA - i� , ,, .' -. � . � ._. `, �n,. �{i:�l C. J-� i - —^-t.__I1_.,1�_—I-��,.9�i�} ,- �-L�.IbYte,. . " �r?�nvill� '___ _ _ . Columb�a "��'�. `i . FIGURE 1- FUTWRE LAND USE SiUDY AREA 0 I A 8 � c�,�e,�_sRii�,.,..�..nca�r.,��oncmu. Verify and Update Information from the ICE Report Please provide a detailed response in the field provided or check the box if the question is not applicable. Future Land Use StudyArea (FLUSAJ Characteristics 1��•, MOPTH CAROLINA �EPAP z� OFTRANSPOPTpTIOM � DIVISION OF HIGHWAVS� R-2577-US1581MPROVEME FORSYTH AND GWILFORD COII 24. Does the Preliminary ICE Study Time Horizon of 2040 seem appropriate for this project particularly in terms of consistency with the planning horizons of local transportation and land use plans? If not, please indicate what the year should be. Yes 25. Are there notable public or private transportation, infrastructure, or development projects underway or foreseeable in the FLUSA? Please describe the current status of Check if item is not applicable: Required Question ❑ N/A Appendix A: Interviews Page 67 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties these projects, noting if they are permitted or planned. No 26. How do population and employment trends within the FLUSA compare to the county ❑ N/A or multi-county area trends? Are there areas of the FLUSA that are growing or declining more so than other areas? Population projections for this area of Kernersville are not expected to show significant growth. 27. Please verify the accuracy and completeness of the Human Environmental Features ❑ N/A Map provided above. Are there additional features that should be included? No 28. Please verify the accuracy and completeness of the Natural Environmental Features � N/A Map provided above. Are there additional features that should be included? Additional comments or information regarding FLUSA Characteristics: Growth and Development 29. Is the FLUSA currently served by water and sewer service? If not, are there plans and � N/A funding to extend service? Water service is available within the Town Limits in this area. 30. Please identify land/parcels within the FLUSA that are likely to be developed or sold. � N/A 31. Describe the type and location of any public or private development that is currently � N/A occurring within the FLUSA. There are two (2) residential communities which have received Planning approval: The Villas at West Mountain Street located near 1409 West Mountain Street (98 Single Family units) and Oxford Ridge located at Piney Grove Road and Brown Road (49 residential lots). 32. Are there any known plans for public or private development in the FLUSA? If so, has � N/A this development been permitted and/or initiated yet? Described above. 33. How would development patterns likely be different if a) the project is built or b) the � N/A project is not built? Will not likely impact development within Kernersville Town Limits. Additional comments or information regarding Growth and Development: Appendix A: Interviews Page 68 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report Public Policy TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties 34. What are the local plans, policies, or regulations that pertain to development and growth within the FLUSA? 35. Describe the effectiveness of these plans, policies, and regulations at balancing development and natural resource protection within the FLUSA. Additional comments or information regarding Public Policy: Next Steps 36. Should others be consulted regarding this Indirect and Cumulative Effects analysis? (e.g. municipal utilities, county planners, etc.) Winston Board of Education Additional comments or information regarding this Indirect and Cumulative Effects analysis: Land Use Scenario Assessment ❑ N/A /1 � �1 . Appendix A: Interviews Page 69 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties PDA Name: PDA 1- Old Belews Creek Road and Reidsville Road (US 158) Special Land Use Condition Area General Description: Half mile vicinity of the intersection of Old Belews Creek Road and US 158. Land Availability Acres Percent Land Available for 141.02 31.7°/a Development: Undeveloped (vacantJ and underutilized Developed Land 303.48 68.3% Tota I: 444.5 100°/o PDA Name: PDA 2- Old Belews Creek Road Activity Center (Walkertown Small Area Plan) General Description: Half mile vicinity of the intersection of Old Belews Creek Road and US 158. Land Availability Acres Percent Land Available for 191.4 51.4% Development: Undeveloped (vacantJ and underutilized Developed Land 181.0 48.6% Total: 372.4 100% PDA Name: General Description: Land Availability Land Available for Development: Undeveloped (vacantJ and underutilized Developed Land Total: PDA 3— US 158/NC 66 Activity Center Half mile vicinity of the intersection of Old Belews Creek Road and US 158. Acres Percent 247.0 56.9% 187.2 434.2 43.1% 100% Land Use Development Scenarios 37. Describe any public or private development that would be likely to occur in the near-term (next five years) within the Probable Development Areas (PDAs). Appendix A: Interviews Page 70 Land Use Scenario Assessment Narrative Report TIP R-2577 ♦ Forsyth/Guilford Counties None known 38. How would each of the PDAs likely develop if the proposed project is not constructed? Take into account the current zoning regulations and land use / comprehensive plan, if applicable. NA 39. How would each of the PDAs likely develop if the proposed project is constructed? Take into account the current zoning regulations and land use / comprehensive plan, if applicable. NA 40. Would building the project influence the type (e.g. residential vs. commercial) and/or density of development within the PDAs? NA 41. How does future population and employment growth within the PDAs compare to the surrounding area? For example, is future growth anticipated to be greater within the PDAs compared to the region? NA Additional comments or information regarding Land Use Development Scenarios: Appendix A: Interviews Page 71