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Table of Contents
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................1-1
1.1 Work Scope ..................................................................................................................................................................1-3
1.1.1 Task 1: Data Collection and Summarization ....................................................................................1-3
1.1.2 Task 2: Model Review and Refinement .............................................................................................1-4
1.1.3 Task 3: Base Year Model Calibration ..................................................................................................1-4
1.1.4 Task 4: Project Configuration, Tolling Locations, and Model Inputs ....................................1-4
1.1.5 Task 5: Traffic and Toll Revenue Analysis .......................................................................................1-4
1.1.6 Task 6: Study Documentation and Management ...........................................................................1-4
1.2 Prior Work ...................................................................................................................................................................1-5
1.3 Report Structure .......................................................................................................................................................1-6
2. Existing Conditions ....................................................................................................... 2-1
2.1 The Triangle Expressway ...................................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.1.1 Toll Collection and Toll Schedule ......................................................................................................... 2-2
2.1.2 2016 Traffic Volumes on the Triangle Expressway ..................................................................... 2-2
2.1.3 2016 Traffic Characteristics on the Triangle Expressway ........................................................ 2-4
2.1.4 Annual Transaction and Toll Revenue Trends on the Triangle Expressway .................... 2-6
2.2 Traffic Volumes in the Study Area ..................................................................................................................... 2-7
2.2.1 Traffic Counts Conducted by The Traffic Group ............................................................................ 2-7
2.2.2 2016 Average Weekday Traffic Volumes in the Study Area ...................................................2-15
2.2.3 Hourly 2016 Traffic Variations ...........................................................................................................2-15
2.3 INRIX/HERE Time Speed Data ..........................................................................................................................2-15
2.4 Origin-Destination Data .......................................................................................................................................2-23
3. Model Review, Refinement and Calibration ................................................................. 3-1
3.1 Regional Traffic Demand Model Description ................................................................................................ 3-1
3.2 Model Demographics Summary ......................................................................................................................... 3-3
3.3 Future Roadway Improvements ........................................................................................................................ 3-3
3.4 Model Refinement and Calibration .................................................................................................................3-11
3.4.1 Triangle Expressway and Complete 540 Configuration and Toll Concept .......................3-11
3.4.2 Other Network Modifications ..............................................................................................................3-11
3.4.3 Model Calibration ......................................................................................................................................3-17
3.4.4 Future Year Adjustments and Assignments ..................................................................................3-17
3.4.5 Next Generation of TRM .........................................................................................................................3-17
4. Traffic and Revenue Forecasts ...................................................................................... 4-1
4.1 Summary of Study Methodology ........................................................................................................................4-1
4.1.1 Model Refinement and Calibration ...................................................................................................... 4-1
4.1.2 Future Year Networks and Trip Tables .............................................................................................4-2
4.1.3 Traffic Diversion Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 4-2
4.2 Model Assignments ..................................................................................................................................................4-3
4.3 Basic Assumptions ................................................................................................................................................... 4-3
4.3.1 Toll Collection on Complete 540 ..........................................................................................................4-3
4.3.2 Other Basic Assumptions ......................................................................................................................... 4-4
Smith

Table of Contents •
4.4 Future Year Toll Rate Assumptions ..................................................................................................................4-5
4.4.1 Triangle Expressway Toll Rate Schedule ..........................................................................................4-5
4.4.2 Complete 540 Toll Rate Schedule .........................................................................................................4-8
4.4.3 Comparison of Through-Trip Toll Rates ........................................................................................ 4-12
4.5 Other Inputs ............................................................................................................................................................. 4-12
4.5.1 ETC Market Share ..................................................................................................................................... 4-12
4.5.2 Motorist Value-of-Time and Vehicle Operating Cost ................................................................ 4-13
4.6 Traffic and Revenue Forecasts by Scenario ................................................................................................4-14
4.6.1 Triangle Expressway - Scenario 1.0 ................................................................................................. 4-15
4.6.2 Complete 540 - Scenarios 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0 ....................................................................................4-19
4.7 Comparison of Traffic and Revenue Forecasts by Scenario ................................................................. 4-31
4.8 Scenario 1.1: Triangle Expressway Toll 147 Extension ........................................................................ 4-37
4.9 Fiduciary Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................................. 4-41
List of Figures
Figure1-1. Project Map ..................................................................................................................
Figure 2-1. Triangle Expressway: 2016 ETC and Video Toll Rates ...................................................
Figure 2-2. Triangle Expressway: 2016 Average Weekday Traffic and Hourly Distribution ...........
Figure 2-3. 2016 Average Weekday Traffic .....................................................................................
Figure 2-4. Hourly Weekday Traffic Distribution - Screenline 2 .....................................................
Figure 2-5. Hourly Weekday Traffic Distribution - Screenline 5 .....................................................
Figure 2-6. Hourly Weekday Traffic Distribution - Screenline 7 .....................................................
Figure 2-7. Available Study Area HERE/INRIX Speed Data ..............................................................
Figure2-8. Free Flow Travel Times .................................................................................................
Figure 2-9. AM Weekday Peak-Hour Travel Times, 7:00 AM-8:00 AM ...........................................
Figure 2-10. PM Weekday Peak-Hour Travel Times, 5:00 PM-6:00 PM .........................................
Figure 2-11. StreetLight Data Collection Locations .........................................................................
Figure3-1. TRMvS Region ...............................................................................................................
Figure 3-2. Total Change in Households from 2015 to 2040: TRMvS .............................................
Figure 3-3. Total Change in Employment from 2015 to 2040: TRMvS ...........................................
Figure 3-4. Selected Roadway Capacity Improvements Assumed in Study ....................................
Figure 3-5. Project Configuration Toll 147 and Toll 540 .................................................................
Figure 3-6. Project Configuration Toll 540 ......................................................................................
Figure 3-7. Project Configuration Toll 540 and Complete 540 to US 401 .......................................
Figure 3-8. Project Configuration Complete 540 from US 401 to White Oak Road ........................
Figure 3-9. Project Configuration Complete 540 from White Oak Road to I-495 ...........................
m
.. 1-2
.. 2-3
.. 2-5
2-10
2-16
2-17
2-18
2-19
2-20
2-21
2-22
2-24
.. 3-2
.. 3-5
.. 3-7
3-10
3-12
3-13
3-14
3-15
3-16
Smith

Table of Contents •
Figure 3-10. Average Weekday StreetLight Origin-Destination Sample Location 1.9 NB ....................3-18
Figure 3-11. Average Weekday StreetLight Origin-Destination Sample Location 2.2 NB/WB .............3-18
Figure 4-1. Triangle Expressway Toll Zones ............................................................................................4-7
Figure 4-2. Triangle Expressway: 2025 ETC and Video Toll Rates ..........................................................4-9
Figure 4-3. Complete 540: 2025 ETC and Video Toll Rates ..................................................................4-11
Figure 4-4. Scenario 1: Triangle Expressway Average Weekday Traffic Forecasts - 2019, 2025,
2030, 2040 ............................................................................................................................................4-16
Figure 4-5. Complete 540: 2025 Average Weekday Traffic by Scenario ..............................................4-20
Figure 4-6. Complete 540: 2030 Average Weekday Traffic by Scenario ..............................................4-21
Figure 4-7. Complete 540: 2040 Average Weekday Traffic by Scenario ..............................................4-22
Figure 4-8. 2030 Average Weekday Screenline Market Share .............................................................4-23
Figure 4-9. Triangle Expressway: 2030 Impacts Due to Complete 540 at Tolled Locations .................4-24
Figure 4-10. Fiscal Year Transactions and Adjusted Toll Revenue by Scenario ....................................4-35
Figure 4-11. Toll Rates on the Toll 147 Extension ................................................................................4-38
Figure 4-12. Triangle Expressway: 2025 Weekday Traffic Impacts Due to Toll 147 Extension ............4-39
List of Tables
Table 2-1. Triangle Expressway (To11540) Construction History ........................................................................ 2-1
Table 2-2. Percent Car and Truck Distribution on the Triangle Expressway ................................................... 2-4
Table 2-3. Percent Method of Payment Distribution on the Triangle Expressway ....................................... 2-6
Table 2-4. Triangle Expressway Annual Transactions and Gross Toll Revenue (transactions and
revenuein thousands) ............................................................................................................................................................. 2-6
Table 2-5. Historical Transactions on the Triangle Expressway ........................................................................... 2-8
Table 2-6. Historical Gross Toll Revenue Collected on the Triangle Expressway .......................................... 2-9
Table 2-7. Traffic Count Locations and Collection Dates ........................................................................................2-11
Table 2-8. Summary of Weekday and Weekend Day Traffic Volumes at Count Locations, Based on
Traffic Counts Conducted in the Fall of 2016 ...............................................................................................................2-13
Table 2-9. StreetLight Data Origin-Destination Locations .....................................................................................2-23
Table 3-1. Total Change in TRMvS Number of Households ..................................................................................... 3-4
Table 3-2. Total Change in TRMv5 Employment .......................................................................................................... 3-6
Table 3-3. Selected Future Year Roadway Improvements Assumed in the Current Complete 540
Trafficand Revenue Study ..................................................................................................................................................... 3-9
Table4-1. Model Assignments .............................................................................................................................................. 4-4
Table 4-2. Triangle Expressway Class 1 Toll Rates ..................................................................................................... 4-6
Table 4-3. Complete 540 Class 1 Toll Rates - Mainline Toll Zones .....................................................................4-10
Table 4-4. Through-Trip Per-Mile Toll Rates on the Triangle Expressway ......................................................4-8
Table 4-5. Through-Trip Toll Rates by Toll Class .......................................................................................................4-12
Table 4-6. Systemwide ETC Targeted Market Share and Model 0utput ..........................................................4-13
Smith iii

Table of Contents •
Table 4-7. Passenger Car Value of Time and Vehicle Operating Cost Assumptions ................................... 4-13
Table 4-8. Scenario 1: Annual Transaction Forecast by Class and Payment Type, Triangle
Expressway................................................................................................................................................................................ 4-17
Table 4-9. Scenario 1: Annual Adjusted Toll Revenue Forecast by Class and Payment Type,
TriangleExpressway ..............................................................................................................................................................4-18
Table 4-10. Scenario 2: Annual Transaction Forecast by Class and Payment Type, Triangle
Expressway Plus Complete 540 through US 401 .......................................................................................................4-25
Table 4-11. Scenario 2: Annual Adjusted Toll Revenue Forecast by Class and Payment Type,
Triangle Expressway Plus Complete 540 through US 401 .................................................................................... 4-26
Table 4-12. Scenario 3: Annual Transaction Forecast by Class and Payment Type, Triangle
Expressway Plus Complete 540 through Interstate 40 ...........................................................................................4-27
Table 4-13. Scenario 3: Annual Adjusted Toll Revenue Forecast by Class and Payment Type,
Triangle Expressway Plus Complete 540 through Interstate 40 ........................................................................ 4-28
Table 4-14. Scenario 4: Annual Transaction Forecast by Class and Payment Type, Triangle
Expressway Plus Complete 540 through US 264 ....................................................................................................... 4-29
Table 4-15. Scenario 4: Annual Adjusted Toll Revenue Forecast by Class and Payment Type,
Triangle Expressway Plus Complete 540 through US 264 ....................................................................................4-30
Table 4-16. Comparison of Systemwide Transaction Forecasts by Scenario ................................................4-32
Table 4-17. Comparison of Systemwide Adjusted Toll Revenue Forecasts by Scenario .......................... 4-33
Table 4-18. Transaction and Adjusted Toll Revenue Impacts of Complete 540 on the Triangle
Expressway................................................................................................................................................................................ 4-36
Table 4-19. Transaction and Revenue Impacts of Additional Segments on Complete 540 ..................... 4-36
Table 4-20. Transaction and Revenue Impacts of the Toll 147 Extension on the Triangle
Expressway................................................................................................................................................................................ 4-40
iv Smlth

Chapter 1 - Draft
Introduction
This study had two primary purposes, as defined by the North Carolina Turnpike Authority
(NCTA). The first purpose was to develop an updated traffic and toll revenue forecast for the
existing Triangle Expressway. The second purpose was to develop traffic and toll revenue
forecasts for three Complete 540 scenarios, a proposed toll road also known as the Southeast
Extension. The projects are shown in Figure 1.1. Complete 540 will extend the Triangle
Expressway from the 1VC 55 Bypass in Apex to the U.S. 64/U.S. 264 Bypass in Knightdale,
completing the 540 Outer Loop around the greater Raleigh area. There are three construction
segments of Complete 540, shown as Segments 1, 2, and 3 in Figure 1.1. This study analyzed the
traffic and toll revenue potential of constructing Segment 1 by 2025, compared to constructing
Segments 1 and 2 by 2025, and the additional impact of Segment 3 added in 2030.
Annual traffic and toll revenue forecasts are provided from 2017 through 2055. Forecasts are
provided for the Triangle Expressway (Scenario 1) and for the Complete 540 Scenarios 2, 3, and
4, all of which include the traffic and toll revenue generated by the Triangle Expressway. Traffic
and revenue impacts of Scenarios 2, 3, and 4(Complete 540) compared to Scenario 1 are
summarized. These forecasts are for planning purpose and are not sufficient for use in project
financing.
The following describes the four scenarios that were evaluated in this study.
Scenario 1: Traffic and toll revenue estimates were developed for the existing Triangle
Expressway, including the impacts of a planned interchange at Veridea Parkway (STIP R-2635D),
previously known as the Old Holly Springs-Apex Road Interchange, and at Morrisville Parkway
(STIP U-5315). The Veridea Interchange opened to traffic on Apri13, 2017, and the Morrisville
Parkway Interchange is assumed to open on January 1, 2019.
Scenario 1.1: This scenario is a sensitivity test of Scenario 1, consisting of adding a tolled
extension of NC 147 southward from the Triangle Expressway to McCrimmon Parkway in
Morrisville. The extension is assumed to open on January 1, 2019. This scenario is not
included in Scenarios 1, 2, 3, or 4.
Scenario 2: This scenario consists of Scenario 1 with the addition of Complete 540 Segment 1
(from NC 55 Bypass to U.S. 401). January 1, 2025 is the assumed opening date of Segment 1.
Scenario 3: This scenario consists of Scenario 2 with the addition of Complete 540 Segment 2
(from U.S. 401 to Interstate 40). January 1, 2025 is the assumed opening date of both Segments 1
and 2. The purpose of this scenario is to isolate the impact of extending Complete 540 to
Interstate 40, compared to Scenario 1, where Complete 540 extends only to U.S. 401.
Scenario 4: This scenario consists of Scenario 3 with the addition of Complete 540 Segment 3
(from Interstate 40 to U.S. 64/ 264 Bypass.). This last segment will complete the NC 540 outer
loop. January 1, 2030 is the assumed opening date of Segment 3.
Smith 1-1
May 31, 2017

Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
� NORTH CAROLINA PROJECT MAP
- � Turnpike Auth4rity
FIGURE 1.1

Chapter 1 • Introduction
1.1 Work Scope
The following six tasks were conducted as part of this study. Although this is a planning level
study, much of this work is appropriate to carry into a study suitable for support of project
financing.
■ Task 1: Data Collection and Summarization
■ Task 2: Model Review and Refinement
■ Task 3: Base Year Model Calibration
■ Task 4: Project Configuration, Tolling Locations, and Model Inputs
■ Task 5: Traffic and Toll Revenue Analysis
■ Task 6: Study Documentation and Management
A description of each task is provided below.
1.1.1 Task 1: Data Collection and Summarization
The following data was collected for use in validating the regional demand model in the study
area, understanding current traffic conditions, and identifying future road improvements.
Subtask 1.1: Traffic Counts
■ CDM Smith obtained available traffic count data in the study area from the North Carolina
Department of Transportation (NCDOT) and the NCTA.
■ Toll transaction and toll revenue data for the Triangle Expressway from 2013 through
2016 was obtained from the NCTA.
■ CDM Smith contracted The Traffic Group to conduct traffic counts at 631ocations in the
study area. Most counts were conducted for 3 continuous weekdays, but 7-day counts
were conducted at 12 key locations.
Subtask 1.2: INRIX/HERE Travel Speed Data
Travel speed data was obtained from both INRIX and HERE via the Regional Integrated
Transportation Information System (RITIS) with the permission of the NCDOT. Travel speed
information was collected for the 12-month period from October 2015 through September 2016.
Subtask 1.3: Origin and Destination Data
One full year of origin-destination data was obtained from StreetLight Data, Inc. The data
provides insight into the travel patterns and trip distances in the study area.
Subtask 1.4: Roadway Improvements
CDM Smith reviewed road improvements that were assumed in the regional demand model.
These improvements were compared against improvements in the following two documents.
Smith 1-3
May 31, 2017

Chapter 1 • Introduction
1. Draft NCDOT 2017-2027 STIP (January 2017)
2. NC Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) 2040 Metropolitan
Transportation Plan (Amended September 2015)
The primary purpose of the review was to determine if changes needed to be made to the
assumed future roadway improvements in the regional demand model, and to identify
improvements that could either positively or negatively impact potential traffic volumes on the
Triangle Expressway or Complete 540. Discussions were held with NCDOT staff to clarify
roadway improvement plans.
1.1.2 Task 2: Model Review and Refinement
The Triangle Regional Model version 5(TRMv5) was used to analyze the traffic and toll revenue
potential of the study scenarios. CDM Smith reviewed the TRMv5 to identify changes that needed
to be made to improve calibration to existing conditions, reflect future road way improvements,
and reflect the configuration, alignment and capacity of the Triangle Expressway and the
proposed Complete 540. In addition, CDM Smith reviewed the TRMvS growth assumptions in
households and employment in the study area.
1.1.3 Task 3: Base Year Model Calibration
The TRMv5 model was calibrated at certain key locations in the study area to 2016 actual
conditions, based on traffic counts, travel time data, and origin-destination data.
1.1.4 Task 4: Project Configuration, Tolling Locations, and Model Inputs
The Complete 540 project alignment and configuration was obtained from the NCTA, along with
the tolling concept. In addition, CDM Smith developed other model inputs including the market
share of electronic toll collection (ETC) equipped vehicles on the Triangle Expressway and
Complete 540, motorist values-of-time(VOT) and vehicle operating cost (VOC), and future toll
rate schedules.
1.1.5 Task 5: Traffic and Toll Revenue Analysis
Traffic assignments were conducted for Scenarios 1, 1.1, 2, 3 and 4 at years 2016, 2017, 2019,
2025, 2030 and 2040. The assignments formed the basis for developing estimated annual toll
transactions and toll revenue.
1.1.6 Task 6: Study Documentation and Management
Aside from this document, the following documents were provided electronically to the
NCDOT/NCTA over the course of the study.
The Traffic Count Program, dated October 12, 2016. This document included traffic count
location maps and a table describing the location and duration of the traffic counts
conducted by The Traffic Group.
■ The Technical Memorandum on Data Collection, dated February 3, 2017. This document
contained a summary of 1) the traffic count program conducted by The Traffic Group; 2)
travel speed data from HERE and INRIX; and 3) StreetLight origin-destination data.
Smith 1-4
May 31, 2017

Chapter 1 • Introduction
The Technical Memorandum Complete 540 Planning Study - Modeling Scenarios,
Project Configuration and Roadway Improvements, dated March 15, 2017. This
document summarized the modeling scenarios, the project alignments, number of through
lanes, and assumed roadway improvements.
1.2 Prior Work
CDM Smith has conducted many studies on the Triangle Expressway, and a few planning level
studies on various sections of proposed loop roads around Raleigh. The following lists the most
pertinent Triangle Expressway Studies, and the most recent study (May 2008) that evaluated the
toll revenue potential of various loop roads in the Raleigh area. The second study in the list, the
2009 Comprehensive Report, remains the most recent certified forecast of Triangle Expressway
traffic and toll revenue. The study results were based on a TRM version that relied on 2000
Census data. The other studies listed are all planning level studies, based on the 2009
Comprehensive Study. The listed studies were used in the conduct of the current Complete 540
Planning Level Study.
May 2008: NC Urban Loop Update and Ranking Study
Provided preliminary traffic and toll revenue forecasts for loop-road sections in the
Raleigh area, including the Complete 540.
4 6 2009: Triangle Expressway Comprehensive Traffic and Revenue Study (2009
Comprehensive Report)
This report contains the most recent certified forecast of Triangle Expressway traffic and
toll revenue. It contains forecasts for fiscal years (FI� 2012 through 2051, and was
prepared prior to the opening of the Triangle Expressway. The forecasts did not include
the Veridea Parkway or Morrisville Parkway interchanges.
October 2010: Triangle Expressway Veridea Interchange Test
This document presents planning level traffic and revenue estimates for the Veridea
Parkway Interchange. It was based on the 2009 Comprehensive Report.
December 2010: Morrisville Parkway Interchange Test
This document presents planning level traffic and revenue estimates for the Morrisville
Parkway Interchange. It was based on the 2009 Comprehensive Report.
11/10/2011: Toll 147/McCrimmon Parkway Connector T&R Study
This document presents planning level traffic and revenue estimates for the Toll 147
extension to McCrimmon Parkway. It was based on the 2009 Comprehensive Report and
did not assume the Veridea Parkway or Morrisville Parkway interchanges.
4/25/2012: Technical Memorandum - 24 Month Monthly Transactions and Gross Toll
Revenue Estimates for the Triangle Expressway
This document presents revised traffic and toll revenue estimates from January 2012
through December 2014 to reflect changes in the actual phased opening of the Triangle
Expressway. The estimates were based on the 2009 Comprehensive Report. The
Smith 1-s
May 31, 2017

Chapter 1 • Introduction
Veridea Parkway and Morrisville Parkway interchanges were not included in the
forecasts.
9 9 2013 Impact of Morrisville Parkway and Old Holly Springs Road Interchanges
Revised traffic and toll revenue forecasts are provided for the Triangle Expressway
without the proposed interchanges, with each individual interchange, and with both
interchanges. The Old Holly Springs-Apex Road Interchange was the current name for the
Veridea Interchange at the time of the study. The revisions of the Triangle Expressway
included adjustments for actual experience, and some toll schedule adjustments that
reflected actual phased openings. Both interchanges were assumed to open on January 1,
2016. The forecasts were based on the 2009 Comprehensive Report.
03/31/2016 Toll NC 540/Old Holly Springs Road Interchange Toll Schedule
Recommendation
Provided the recommended toll rate schedule for the Veridea Parkway interchange
(previously the Old Holly Springs Road Interchange). This toll rate schedule differed
slightly from the assumed toll rates in the 9/9/20131etter listed above. The
recommended Veridea toll rate schedule was adopted by the NCDOT.
3/22/2017 Revised transactions and toll revenue forecasts were prepared for the
Triangle Expressway and for impacts due to the Veridea Parkway and Morrisville
Parkway interchanges to reflect opening dates of April 1, 2017 and January 1, 2019,
respectively. The revised transaction and revenue forecasts were used in the North
Carolina Turnpike Authority Triangle Expressway Senior Lien Turnpike Revenue
Refunding Bonds Official Statement. The revised forecasts were based on the 2009
Comprehensive Report.
1.3 Report Structure
The remainder of this report consists of three chapters.
Chapter 2: Existing Conditions
This Chapter describes the existing conditions and collected data in the study corridor. This
includes conditions on the Triangle Expressway, traffic volumes on other area roads, travel times,
and the collection of origin-destination data.
Chapter 3: Model Review and Refinement
This Chapter describes the regional travel demand model and the refinements that were made to
the model.
Chapter 4: Traffic and Toll Revenue Analysis
This Chapter describes the model inputs and basic study assumptions. It also summarizes how
the model output is converted into annual traffic and toll revenue forecasts. Annual forecasts are
provided for each scenario. In addition, comparisons are made between scenarios to highlight
traffic and toll revenue impacts.
Smith 1-6
May 31, 2017

Chapter 2 - Draft
Existing Conditions
This Chapter describes 2016 existing conditions for the Triangle Expressway and other area
roads. Data is provided for traffic volumes, travel times, and the collection of origin-destination
data.
2.1 The Triangle Expressway
The existing Triangle Expressway is an approximately 18.5 mile, limited access toll road
consisting of three through travel lanes per direction, and a posted speed limit of 70 mph. The
road provides a high-speed connection from communities to the south and west of Raleigh, such
as Fuquay Varina, Holly Springs, and Apex, to Interstate 40 (I-40), Research Triangle Park (RTP)
and the Raleigh-Durham International Airport. The Triangle Expressway is designated as Toll
540, and is part of the 540 Outer Loop. The primary competing roadway is NC 55, which closely
parallels the Triangle Expressway. NC 55 generally provides two through travel lanes per
direction, with the intermittent provision of left, right and center turn lanes. There are some
single-lane sections of 1VC 55. The posted speed limits range from 35 to 55 mph on NC 55 in the
Triangle Expressway corridor.
The Triangle Expressway opened in three phases, as shown in Table 2.1. The entire project was
opened to tolled traffic on January 2, 2013. The most recent improvement to the Triangle
Expressway was the full-access interchange with Veridea Parkway which opened on Ari14, 2017.
Table 2.1
Triangle Expressway (Toll 540) Construction History
Improvement Opening Date Tolling Began
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
Veridea
Interchange
December 8, 2011
August 1, 2012
January 3, 2012
August 2, 2012
December 12, 2012 January 2, 2013
April 4, 2017 April 4, 2017
Location
NC 540 between NC 55 and NC 54
NC 147 between I-40 and NC 540
NC 540 between NC 55 and U.S. 64
i n Apex
NC 540 between U.S. 64 and
NC 55 Bypass near Holly Springs
Full access interchange at NC 540
and Veridea Parkway.
Smith 2-1
May 31, 2017

Chapter 2 • Exiting Conditions
2.1.1 Toll Collection and Toll Schedule
The Triangle Expressway features an all-electronic tolling system (AET), designed to reduce
traffic delays and promote safety. This system allows motorists to pay their toll without stopping
or slowing down. Tolls are collected via NC Quick Pass, NCDOT's ETC program, or by a video toll
collection system named Bill by Mail (BBM). No conventional toll plazas are located on the
Triangle Expressway; instead, toll collection equipment is located on gantries elevated over the
road. The NC Quick Pass program is currently interoperable with Georgia's Peach Pass, Florida's
Sun Pass and E-ZPass.
The toll schedule is comprised of the following three toll classes:
■ Class 1(2-axle vehicles): includes all two-axle vehicles regardless of the number of tires.
■ Class 2(3-axle vehicles): includes all three-axle vehicles including two-axle vehicles
towing a single-axle trailer.
Class 3(4-or-more axle vehicles): includes all vehicles with four-or-more axles (4+)
including two-axle vehicles towing a dual-axle trailer.
Motorists who pay with NC Quick Pass (or interoperable systems) receive a 35 percent discount
from the video rates for all vehicle toll classes. Class 2 toll rates equal two times the Class 1 toll
rate, and Class 3 toll rates equal four times the Class 1 toll rate. Figure 2.1 shows the toll zones on
the Triangle Expressway, and the 2016 ETC and video toll rates at each location. 2016 toll rates
are shown because the regional demand model was calibrated to 2016 conditions. In 2016, a
passenger-car motorist making a through trip on To11540 equipped with a transponder would
have paid $2.70, which equals $0.18 per mile. A 5-axle truck making the same trip would have
paid $10.80, or $0.72 per mile.
2.1.2 2016 Traffic Volumes on the Triangle Expressway
The NCTA provided CDM Smith with traffic volume data on the Triangle Expressway at both
tolled and non-tolled locations. The following sources of data were used as part of this study:
The NCTA Quarterly Operations and Statistics Report, that is available on the NCDOT
website.
2. A database of all transactions for one 24-hour weekday in November 2016, by method of
payment, vehicle class, and toll zone.
3. A daily summary of all transactions in 2016 by toll zone and by vehicle class.
4. A daily summary of all transactions in 2016 by toll zone and by method of payment.
5. A monthly summary of systemwide transactions from January 2013 through December
2016.
Smith 2-2
May 31, 2017

$0.95 ($1.45)
$1.90 ($2.90)
l�7 O!1 !C'C 0f11
$0.76 ($1.16)
$1.52 ($2.32)
$0.61 ($0.93)
$1.22 ($1.86)
Inset
2016
Through Trip Toll Rates
Via Toll 540
Vehicle Toll
Class Toll Per Mile
Class 1 $2.70 $0.18
Class 2 $5.40 $0.36
Class 3 $10.80 $0.72
LEGEND
Triangle Expressway
- Ramp Toll Zone
- Mainline Toll Zone
(0.0)- Distance Between
Interchanges (Miles)
Toll Rates
ETC Video
$0.00 ($0.00) - Class 1
$0.00 ($0.00) - Class 2
- Class 3
� NORTH CAROLINA
; � Turnpike Authority
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
N
147 �
.... �
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♦
�
$0.34 ($0.52)
$0.68 ($1.04) (1.8J
$1.36 ($2.0�'
Nopspn Rd\ 540
(0.4J (1.2J /
o''o` �
55 � (1.0)
See Inset 54
(1.8)
Nlorrisville Ya' """",
�Planned)
(1.8)
Gtee� �eve\ � est Ra.
(2.6) I
$0.94 ($1.44)
$1.88 ($2.88)
$0.24 ($0.36)
$0.48 ($0.72)
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Bypass
TRIANGLE EXPRESSWAY:
2016 ETC AND VIDEO TOLL RATES
FIGURE 2.1

Chapter 2 • Exiting Conditions
Based on the data described above, CDM Smith developed a balanced profile of 2016 average
weekday traffic on the Triangle Expressway as shown in Figure 2.2. Traffic volumes build
steadily from the south to the north end of the Triangle Expressway, ranging from 17.8 thousand
vehicles per weekday at the southernmost mainline section to 45.4 thousand on the mainline
section between NC 55 and Toll 147.
Also shown in Figure 2.2 is the hourly weekday traffic distribution, by direction, at each of the
four, mainline toll-zone locations. The hourly, directional traffic distributions are based on traffic
data from Thursday, November 10, 2016. There is a sharp peaking characteristic to Triangle
Expressway traffic, consistent with a commuter-based road. Mainline northbound traffic peaks during
the morning, while southbound mainline traffic peaks during the afternoon and evening on the
Triangle Expressway.
Northbound mainline traffic generally peaks between 7 and 9 AM, with traffic totaling about 32 to 37
percent of the total northbound traffic at the four mainline locations shown in Figure 2.2. AM peak-
hour traffic occurs between 7 and 8 AM, representing 15 to 20 percent of the total northbound traffic
at the four mainline locations. Southbound mainline traffic on the Triangle Expressway peaks sharply
from 5 to 6 PM, comprising 16 to 22 percent of the weekday southbound traffic, as seen at the selected
locations. PM peak period traffic, between 4 to 7 PM in the southbound direction, accounts for 40 to 47
percent of weekday southbound traffic.
2.1.3 2016 Traffic Characteristics on the Triangle Expressway
Passenger cars (Class 1 vehicles) make up the clear majority of transactions on the Triangle
Expressway, both for ETC and video transactions. As shown in Table 2.2, passenger cars
comprised about 97 percent of all ETC transactions and about 96 percent of all video transactions
in 2016. The percent passenger cars and trucks has been stable over the lifetime of the Triangle
Expressway.
Table 2.2
Percent Car and Truck Distribution
on the Triangle Expressway
Electronic Toll
Calendar Collection (ETC)
Year Cars Trucks Total
2013 97.2 2.8 100.0
2014 97.2 2.8 100.0
2015 97.2 2.8 100.0
2016 96.9 3.1 100.0
Transactions
Video
Cars Trucks Total
96.0 4.0 100.0
96.0 4.0 100.0
95.9 4.1 100.0
95.5 4.5 100.0
Note: Cars are Class 1 vehicles
Trucks are Class 2 and Class 3 vehicles
Source: NCTA
Tota I
Cars Trucks Total
96.7 3.3 100.0
96.7 3.3 100.0
96.7 3.3 100.0
96.3 3.7 100.0
Smith 2-4
May 31, 2017

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Note: All volumes are in thousands.
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
147
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Bypass
TRIANGLE EXPRESSWAY: 2016 AVERAGE WEEKDAY
� NORTH CAROLINA TRAFFIC AND HOURLY DISTRIBUTION
; � Turnpike Authority
FIGURE 2.2

Chapter 2 • Exiting Conditions
The annual method-of-payment distribution for toll transactions is shown in Table 2.3. In 2016,
59 percent of passenger cars paid tolls via ETC, the remaining 41 percent paid via video. Forty-
nine percent of trucks paid by ETC and 51 percent by video. The percent market share of ETC and
video has remained consistent from 2013 through 2016.
Table 2.3
Percent Method of Payment Distribution
on the Triangle Expressway
Transactions
Calendar Cars Trucks
Year ETC Video Total ETC Video Total
2013 57.8 42.2 100.0 48.8 51.2 100.0
2014 58.4 41.6 100.0 48.7 51.3 100.0
2015 58.0 42.0 100.0 48.1 51.9 100.0
2016 58.6 41.4 100.0 49.0 51.0 100.0
Note: Cars are Class 1 vehicles
Trucks are Class 2 and Class 3 vehicles
Source: NCTA
Total
ETC Video Total
57.5 42.5 100.0
58.1 41.9 100.0
57.6 42.4 100.0
58.3 41.7 100.0
2.1.4 Annual Transaction and Toll Revenue Trends on The Triangle Expressway
The Triangle Expressway has been in operation since December 8, 2011, although the complete
road was not opened to traffic until December 12, 2013. Annual toll transactions and gross toll
revenue from 2013 through 2016 are shown in Table 2.4. Strong growth has occurred in
transactions and toll revenue, due to demographic and economic growth in the study area, and as
motorists have become familiar with the new road and its benefits. Annual gross toll revenue
increased at a faster rate than transactions due in part to a programmed increase in annual toll
rates on the Triangle Expressway. Toll rates increased, on average, by 5 percent beginning in
early January 2015 and 2016.
Table 2.4
Triangle Expressway Annual Transactions and Gross Toll Revenue
(transactions and revenue in thousands)
Toll Transactions and
Year over Year
Calendar Percent Growth
Year Transactions Growth
2013 23,059
2014 30,650 32.9 %a
2015 38,319 25.0
2016 45,244 18.1
Gross Toll Revenue and
Year over Year
Percent Growth (1)
Revenue Growth
$14,238
21,045 47.8 %
28,779 36.7
35,393 23.0
1) This is toll revenue collected during the indicated year. It does not
include fee revenue.
Source: NCTA
Smith 2-6
May 31, 2017

Chapter 2 • Exiting Conditions
Tables 2.5 and 2.6 present monthly transactions and gross toll revenue on the Triangle
Expressway by payment type and vehicle class from 2013 through 2016, respectively. These
tables show that while Class 1 vehicles comprised 96 percent of total transactions in 2016, they
generated only 91 percent of the collected toll revenue due to the fact that Class 2 and 3 vehicles
pay a higher toll. The remaining 7 percent of toll revenue was generated by Class 2 and 3 vehicles.
2.2 Traffic Volumes in the Study Area
CDM Smith collected a variety of traffic counts from different sources to validate the TRM's
assigned weekday traffic volumes at locations in the study area. The following sources of traffic
counts were used in this study:
1. CDM Smith had The Traffic Group conduct traffic accounts at 631ocations in the fall of
2016. These counts were conducted at sites where hourly traffic data was required.
2. Average annual daily traffic volumes were obtained from the NCDOT's Interactive Traffic
Volume Map, located on the 1VCDOT website.
3. NCTA provided CDM Smith with turning movement counts and 48-hour classification
counts in the study area conducted by HNTB.
4. As described in Section 2.1.2, the NCTA provided CDM Smith with traffic volume data on
the Triangle Expressway at both tolled and non-tolled locations.
2.2.1 Traffic Counts Conducted by The Traffic Group
Traffic counts were conducted in the fall of 2016 by The Traffic Group at a total of 631ocations in
the study corridor. Counts were collected by direction in 15-minute increments via tubes, or by
Wavetronix radar detectors where tubes were not appropriate. Tube counts were collected by
FHWA vehicle classifications. Wavetronix counts were collected by length categories. All counts
were subsequently summarized into existing NCTA toll classes and Triangle Regional Model time
periods. Counts were conducted for at least 3 continuous weekdays (Tuesday, Wednesday,
Thursday). At 12 key locations, counts were conducted for 7 continuous days to obtain weekday
and weekend day traffic volumes.
Count locations were organized into 8 screenlines, as shown in Figure 2.3. Screenlines 1 through
7, shown as green lines, represent groups of roads that parallel the Complete 540 preferred
alignment or the existing Triangle Expressway. Screenline 8 contains count locations on roads
that intersect or provide feeder routes to Complete 540 or the Triangle Expressway. Three
additional counts were conducted on I-40 (locations 8.27, 8.28 and 8.29) that were not included
in any screenlines. Figure 2.3 provides the location numbers for each count station. These
location numbers are also shown in Table 2.7, which lists the count locations, the duration of the
counts and the dates counts were conducted. Table 2.8 provides a summary of the count
program including average weekday traffic, average weekend day traffic, and the percent of truck
traffic, defined as vehicles with three or more axles. Details of the traffic count program are
provided in the CDM Smith Technical Memorandum Complete 540 Planning Study - Data
Collection, dated February 3, 2017.
Smith 2-�
May 31, 2017

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FIGURE 2.3

Table 2.7
Traffic Count Locations and CollE
Data Collected Between These Crossroads
Location # Count Location Crossroad 1 Crossroad 2
Screenline 1: East Side of Raleigh, South of Pool Road
1.1 S. New Hope Rd. Rock Quarry Rd. Maybrook Crossing Dr
1.2 BarwellRd. TomahawkTrail HolidayDr.
1.3 Auburn Knightdale Rd. La Costa Way Silver Star Dr.
1.4 Mial Plantation Rd. Old Baucomb Rd. Nueshill Ln.
Screenline 2: East side of Raleigh, South of Business 70
2.1 White Oak Rd. (NC 2547) Ackerman Rd.
2.2 Interstate 40 Business 70
2.3 Raynor Rd. (NC 2555) White Oak Rd.
2.4 Guy Rd. (NC 2558) White Oak Circle
2.5 Interstate 40 NC 42
Screenline 3: South of Raleigh, West of NC 50
3.1 Timber Dr. Thompson Rd.
3.2 Buffalo Rd. Misty Meadow Ln.
3.3 Ten Ten Rd. Holland Church Rd.
3.4 Pagan Rd. Rock Service Station Rd.
3.5 Rock Service Station Rd. Barber Bridge Rd.
3.6 NC 42 Kay Falls Ln.
Bryan Rd.
US 70 (Clayton Bypass)
Twain Dr.
Golden Nugget Dr.
US 70
Buckingham Rd.
Shore Dr.
Rand Rd.
Holland Church Rd.
Tyler Farms Dr.
Jays Bridge Dr.
Count Collection
Duration Dates in 2016
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
7-Day
3-Day
3-Day
7-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
7-Day
11/1- 11/3
10/18 - 10/24
11/1- 11/3
11/1- 11/3
10/18 - 10/24
Screenline 4: South of Raleigh, East of US 401
4.1 US 401 Simpkins Rd. Woodcrest Dr. 7-Day 10/21- 10/27
4.2 Ten Ten Rd. Old McCullers Rd. (NC 2722) Fanny Brown Rd. (NC 2723) 3-Day 11/1- 11/3
4.3 Banks Rd. Chelsea Dr. Fanny Brown Rd. (NC 2723) 3-Day 11/1- 11/3
Screenline 5: Southwest of Raleigh, East of Holly Springs Road
5.1 Penny Rd. Heather Stone Dr. Sparrow Pond Ln. 3-Day 10/25 - 10/27
5.2 Ten-Ten Rd. Lawdraker Rd. West Lake Rd. 3-Day 10/25 - 10/27
5.3 Optimist Farm Rd. Talcut Trail Glade Hill Dr. 3-Day 10/25 - 10/27
5.4 Hilltop Needmore Rd. Autumn Creek Dr. Old Mills Rd. 3-Day 10/25 - 10/27
Screenline 6: West of Raleigh, North of Highhouse Road
6.1 Davis Dr. Council Gap Court
6.2 Louis Stephenson Dr. Carpenter Upchurch Rd.
6.3 NC 55 Highfield Ave.
6.4 Green Level Church Rd. Southerlyn Ln.
6.5 White Oak Church Rd. Pine Rail Ln.
6.6 Green Level Rd. Luther Rd.
6.7 NC 751 Caley Wilson Rd.
Carramore Ave.
Carramore Ave.
WellesleyTrade Ln.
Beaver Dam Rd.
Morrisville Parkway
Verde Rd.
Lexington Dr.
(Continued on next page)
3-Day
3-Day
7-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
Smith 2-11
May 31, 2017

Chapter 2 • Exiting Conditions
Table 2.7 (Continued)
Traffic Count Locations and Collection Dates (1)
Data Collected Between These Crossroads
Location # Count Location Crossroad 1 Crossroad 2
Screenline 7: West of Raleigh, South of Interstate 40
7.1 NC 55 (Apex Highway) Kit Creek Rd. Green Level Church Rd
7.2 Louis Stephens Dr. Kit Creek Rd. Development Dr.
7.3 Davis Dr. Wally Gilbert Dr. Development Dr.
7.4 NC 54 Surles Ct. Emperor Blvd.
7.5 Airport Blvd. Perimeter Park Dr. Factory Shops Rd.
Screenline 8: Circumferential Locations Adjacent to Complete 540 Route
8.1 Hopson Rd. Lewis Stephenson Dr. NC 147
8.2 Davis Dr. Select Dr. Merrion Ave.
8.3 NC 54 Davis Dr. New Millenium Way
8.4 NC 55 McCrimmon Parkway Triangle Expressway
8.5 Green Hope School Rd. Brooks Park Ln. Twyla Rd.
8.6 Green Level West Rd. KC Farm Rd. Spring Green Rd.
8.7 Green Level West Rd. Triangle Expressway Branton Dr.
8.8 US 64 Jenks Rd. Triangle Expressway
8.9 US 64 NC 55 Davis Dr. /N. Salem St.
8.10 Olive Chapel Rd. Piney Woods Ln. Apex Barbecue Rd.
8.11 Old US Highway 1 Triangle Expressway Apex Barbecue Rd.
8.12 NC 55 Triangle Expressway E. William St.
8.13 Holly Springs Rd. Lockley Rd. Fairview St.
8.14 West Lake Rd. Langston Circle Lorbacher Rd.
8.15 Bells Lake Rd. Oxford Green Dr. Bells Pointe Court
8.16 Johnson Pond Rd. Heavy Weight Dr. Ten Ten Rd.
8.17 Lake Wheeler Rd. Sugg Farm Ln. Ridgebrook Bluffs Dr.
8.18 US 401 NC 2779/Donny Brook Rd. Allen St. West
8.19 Fanny Brown Rd. Laneridge Court (NC 2723) Ten-Ten Rd.
8.20 Old Stage Rd. Rolling Meadows Dr. Rolling Farm Dr.
8.21 Sauls Rd. Community Garden Rd. Ten-Ten Rd.
8.22 Jordan Rd. Stancil Farm Rd. Guffy Dr.
8.23 NC 50 Seven Oaks Dr. Grissom Farm Rd.
8.24 White Oak Rd. Hayward Court Escondido Farm Rd.
8.25 Rock Quarry Rd. Old Baucom Rd. Auburn Knightdale Rd.
8.26 Poole Rd (NC 2555) Southbridge Rd. Grasshopper Rd.
8.27 Interstate 40 Rock Quarry Rd (Exit 300) Hammond Rd. (Exit 299)
8.28 Interstate 40 Gorman St (Exit 295) US 64/US 1(Exit 293)
8.29 Interstate 40 N. Harrison Ave (Exit 287) Aviation Pkwy (Exit 285)
1) The traffic counts were conducted by The Traffic Group.
Count Collection
Duration Dates in 2016
7-Day
3-Day
3-Day
7-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
7-Day
3-Day
3-Day
7-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
7-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
7-Day
3-Day
3-Day
3-Day
7-Day
3-Day
3-Day
10/20 - 10/26
10/18 - 10/20
10/18 - 10/20
10/21 - 10/27
10/18 - 10/20
10/18 - 10/20
10/18 - 10/20
10/18 - 10/20
10/18 - 10/20
11/1 - 11/3
11/1 - 11/3
01/24 - 01/26
10/25 - 10/27
10/20 - 10/26
10/25 - 10/27
10/25 - 10/27
10/20 - 10/26
01/24 - 01/26
10/25 - 10/27
10/25 - 10/27
10/25 - 10/27
10/25 - 10/27
10/21 - 10/27
11/1 - 11/3
11/1 - 11/3
11/1 - 11/3
11/1 - 11/3
10/21 - 10/27
11/1 - 11/3
11/1 - 11/3
11/15 - 11/17
11/28 - 12/04
11/01 - 11/03
11/01 - 11/03
Smith 2-12
May 31, 2017

Chapter 2 • Exiting Conditions
Table 2.8
Summary of Weekday and Weekend Day Traffic Volumes at Count Locations
Based on Traffic Counts Conducted in the Fall of 2016
Average Percent
Average Weekend Percent Trucks
Weekday Day Trucks Weekend
Location # Count Location Traffic (1) Traffic (2) Weekday (3) Day (3)
Screenline 1: East Side of Raleigh, South of Pool Road
1.1 S. New Hope Rd. 17,400 -- 2.7% --
1.2 Barwell Rd. 6,000 -- 0.5% --
1.3 Auburn Knightdale Rd. 2,900 -- 2.3% --
1.4 Mial Plantation Rd. 4,600 -- 1.1% --
Screenline 2: East side of Raleigh, South of Business 70
2.1 White Oak Rd. (NC 2547) 14,400 -- 1.0% --
2.2 Interstate 40 90,100 88,100 12.5% 5.8%
2.3 Raynor Rd. (NC 2555) 4,900 -- 1.1% --
2.4 Guy Rd (NC 2558) 7,600 -- 0.8% --
2.5 Interstate 40 67,000 64,900 14.5% 8.0%
Screenline 3: South of Raleigh, West of NC 50
3.1 Timber Dr. 18,400 - -
3.2 Buffalo Rd. 2,900 - -
3.3 Ten Ten Rd. 13,100 --
3.4 PaganRd. 1,700 --
3.5 Rock Service Station Rd. 4,100 --
3.6 NC 42 10,400 8,800
Screenline 4: South of Raleigh, East of US 401
4.1 US 401 36,500 24,300
4.2 Ten Ten Rd. 17,900 --
4.3 Banks Rd. 6,600 - -
0.4% - -
0.1% --
1.5% - -
0.3% - -
7.2% - -
2.9% 1.5%
2.2% 0.9%
1.4% - -
1.1% - -
Screenline 5: Southwest of Raleigh, East of Holly Springs Road
5.1 Penny Rd. 9,800 -- 0.6%
5.2 Ten-Ten Rd. 19,400 -- 1.7%
5.3 Optimist Farm Rd. 9,600 -- 0.3%
5.4 Hilltop Needmore Rd. 9,300 -- 2.0%
Screenline 6: West of Raleigh, North of High House Road
6.1 Davis Dr. 30,600 - -
6.2 Louis Stephenson Dr. 3,400 --
6.3 NC 55 31,400 24,800
6.4 Green Level Church Rd. 8,900 --
6.5 White Oak Church Rd. 700 --
6.6 Green Level Rd. 1,200 --
6J NC 751 7,600 - -
(Continued on next page)
1.0%
0.0%
19.8%
0.8%
0.1%
1.6%
2.5%
13.0%
Smith 2-13
May 31, 2017

Chapter 2 • Exiting Conditions
Table 2.8 (Continued)
Summary of Weekday and Weekend Day Traffic Volumes at Count Locations
Based on Traffic Counts Conducted in the Fall of 2016
Average Percent
Average Weekend Percent Trucks
Weekday Day Trucks Weekend
Location # Count Location Traffic (1) Traffic (2) Weekday (3) Day (3)
Screenline 7: West of Raleigh, South of Interstate 40
7.1 NC 55 (Apex Highway) 24,100
7.2 Louis Stephens Dr. 5,400
7.3 Davis Dr. 23,500
7.4 NC 54 23,000
7.5 Airport Blvd. 24,200
15,000 1.3% 0.6%
-- 0.1% --
- - 0.7% - -
11,900 1.2% 0.7%
- - 2.6% - -
Screenline 8: Circumferential Locations Adjacent to Complete 540 Route
8.1 Hopson Rd. 10,600 -- 0.4%
8.2 Davis Dr. 20,500 -- 0.8%
8. 3 N C 54 12,100 -- 0.4%
8.4 NC 55 34,500 -- 1.9%
8.5 Green Hope School Rd. 5,700 -- 1.0%
8.6 Green Level West Rd. 6,500 -- 1.9%
8.7 Green Level West Rd. 10,000 -- 1.3%
8.8 US 64 27,100 -- 6.3%
8.9 US 64 46,500 37,700 2.5%
8.10 Olive Chapel Rd. 5,000 -- 2.1%
8.11 Old US Highway 1 7,400 -- 5.2%
8.12 NC 55 31,000 24,400 3.5%
8.13 Holly Springs Rd. 20,800 -- 0.4%
8.14 West Lake Rd. 8,600 -- 0.8%
8.15 Bells Lake Rd. 5,800 -- 0.5%
8.16 Johnson Pond Rd. 4,000 -- 0.7%
8.17 Lake Wheeler Rd. 7,700 -- 0.7%
8.18 US 401 26,000 14,400 1.6%
8.19 Fanny Brown Rd. 4,700 -- 0.3%
8.20 Old Stage Rd. 9,800 -- 1.0%
8.21 Sauls Rd. 4,500 -- 0.9%
8.22 Jordan Rd. 2,000 -- 0.2%
8.23 NC 50 16,200 14,700 1.2%
8.24 White Oak Rd. 11,100 -- 0.6%
8.25 Rock Quarry Rd. 5,200 -- 1.8%
8.26 Poole Rd (NC 2555) 9,900 -- 1.4%
8.27 Interstate 40 107,100 72,900 8.5%
8.28 Interstate 40 125,000 -- 11.6%
8.29 Interstate 40 185,600 -- 13.3%
1.0%
1.3%
0.8%
0.7%
2.6%
1) Represents the average of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday traffic count volumes.
2) Represents the average of Saturday and Sunday traffic count volumes.
3) Trucks are defined as vehicles with three or more axles.
Smith
May 31, 2017
2-14

Chapter 2 • Exiting Conditions
2.2.2 2016 Average Weekday Traffic Volumes in the Study Area
Figure 2.3 illustrates 2016 average weekday traffic volumes at many locations in the study area.
Included are traffic volumes along the CDM Smith screenline locations, and at other select locations on
the Triangle Expressway and other area roads. The counts collected by The Traffic Group, in
combination with average annual daily traffic (AADT) data and average annual weekday traffic
(AAWDT) data from the NCDOT and NCTA, were used to calibrate the TRM to 2016 conditions at
select roads in the study area.
2.2.3 Hourly 2016 Traffic Variations
This section provides a sample of average weekday (Tuesday through Thursday) hourly traffic
variations and directional patterns at count locations on screenlines 2, 5 and 7. Figure 2.4 presents
hourly variations at the four count locations along screenline 2. All four locations display a distinct AM
peak in the northbound direction, and a reciprocal PM peak in the southbound direction. Figure 2.5
presents hourly variations at four locations on screenline 5. Traffic across screenline 5 generally peaks
in the westbound direction during AM commuting hours, and in the eastbound direction during PM
commuting hours. Figure 2.6 presents hourly variations at four locations on screenline 7. Counts at all
4locations display a distinct AM peak in the northbound direction toward Triangle Research Park and
I-40, and a reciprocal PM peak in the southbound direction. Detailed information on average weekday
traffic volumes by time period is available for all count locations conducted by The Traffic Group in the
CDM Smith Technical Memorandum Complete 540 Planning Study - Data Collection, dated February
3, 2017.
2.3 I N RIX/H ERE Time Speed Data
Travel speed data was obtained from both INRIX and HERE via Regional Integrated Transportation
Information System (RITIS) with permission from NCDOT. Travel speed data was collected for the 12-
month period from October 2015 through September 2016. NCDOT utilized INRIX until the end of
calendar year 2015 and switched to HERE in January 2016. Both vendors provide travel speeds and
distance by roadway segment based on GPS data, from which travel time can be calculated. CDM Smith
reviewed North Carolina-specific data validation reports produced for the I-95 Corridor Coalition for
INRIX and HERE. Based on that review, and prior experience using and validating INRIX data, CDM
Smith found both INRIX and HERE acceptable indicators of current travel speeds for this study.
INRIX/HERE have recent travel speed data for many roads in the Raleigh area as shown in Figure 2.7.
CDM Smith compiled and summarized travel speeds for selected road segments in the study area, and
used that information to calculate travel times. Figure 2.8 shows free-flow travel times by segment
and direction for a sampling of the selected routes. It should be noted that minor differences in free-
flow travel time by direction on a given segment can be attributed to directional variances in the
distances provided by HERE/INRIX. For comparison purposes, Figure 2.9 and Figure 2.10 show
travel times by segment and direction for the same routes during the AM peak hour (7-8 AM) and the
PM peak hour (5-6 PM). For example, northbound travel times on NC 55 near the Triangle Expressway
averaged 32.9 minutes under free-flow conditions, 39.7 minutes during the AM peak hour, and 46.7
minutes during the PM peak hour.
The travel times in Figures 2.8 through 2.10 are high-level summaries. For use in calibrating to 2016,
travel times were available in smaller segments.
Smith 2-Zs
May 31, 2017

4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
� 2,500
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m
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1,500
1,000
500
0
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4,000
3,500
3,000
.,"-� 2,500
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� 2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Location 2.1
White Oak Road Between Ackerman Road and Bryan Road
Northbound
Southbound
-�i
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour Beginning
Location 2.3
Raynor Road Between White Oak Road and Twain Drive
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour Beginning
� NORTH CAROLINA
; � Turnpike Authority
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
� 2,500
�
c�
� 2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
� 2,500
m
� 2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
Location 2.2
I-40 Between Business 70 and US 70 (Clayton Bypass)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223
Hour Beginning
Location 2.4
Guy Road Between White Oak Circle and Golden Nugget Drive
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour Beginning
HOURLY WEEKDAY TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION - SCREENLINE 2
FIGURE 2.4

1,000
900
800
700
u
600
w
� 500
L
~ 400
300
200
100
0
1,000
900
800
700
� 600
w
� 500
L
~ 400
300
200
100
0
Location 5.1
Penny Road Between Heather Stone Drive and Sparrow Pond Lane
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour Beginning
Location 5.3
Optimist Farm Road Between Talcut Trail and Glade Hill Drive
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour Beginning
� NORTH CAROLINA
; � Turnpike Authority
1,000
900
800
700
u
600
w
� 500
L
~ 400
300
200
100
0
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
Location 5.2
Ten Ten Road Between Lawdraker Road and West Lake Road
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223
Hour Beginning
Location 5.4
Hilltop Needmore Road Between Autumn Creek Drive and Old Mills Road
1,000
900 Eastbound
Westbound
800
700
� 600
� 500
L
~ 400
300 —
\ �' �
200
100
_�
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour Beginning
HOURLY WEEKDAY TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION - SCREENLINE 5
FIGURE 2.5

2,500
2, 250
2,000
1,750
� 1,500
w
� 1,250
L
~ 1����
75�
500
250
0
2,500
2, 250
2,000
1,750
� 1,500
w
� 1,250
L
~ 1����
750
500
250
0
Location 7.1
NC 55 Between Kit Creek Road and Green Level Church Road
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour Beginning
Location 7.4
NC 54 Between Church Street and Emperor Boulevard
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour Beginning
� NORTH CAROLINA
; � Turnpike Authority
2,500
2, 250
2,000
1,750
� 1,500
w
� 1,250
L
~ 1����
750
500
250
0
2,500
2, 250
2,000
1,750
� 1,500
w
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L
~ 1����
750
500
250
0
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
Location 7.3
Davis Drive Between Wally Gilbert Drive and Development Drive
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour Beginning
Location 7.5
Airport Blvd. Between Perimeter Park Drive and Factory Shops Road
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour Beginning
HOURLY WEEKDAY TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION - SCREENLINE 7
FIGURE 2.6

Complete 540 Planning Level
_ _ Traffic and Revenue Study
� NORTH CAROLINA
; ,� Turnpike Authority
�
AVAILABLE STUDY AREA HERE/INRIX SPEED DATA
FIGURE 2.7

Complete 540 Planning Level
_ ,_,, _: ,; Traffic and Revenue Study
� NORTH CAROLINA
; ,� Turnpike Authority
�
FREE FLOW TRAVEL TIMES
FIGURE 2.8

N
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Note: Travel times shown represent the 12-month average
from October 2015 through September 2016.
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Traffic and Revenue Study
401
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AM WEEKDAY PEAK-HOUR TRAVEL TIMES
7:OOAM -8:OOAM
FIGURE 2.9

X:\TFT Group\Projects\NC 213703 2016 Complete 540\Graphics\Flnal Report Fig�rns\Ar<Map\PM Peak Hour Travel Times.mHd \ 5-19-17
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from October 2015 through September 2016.
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401
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FIGURE 2.10

Chapter 2 • Exiting Conditions
2.4 Origin-Destination Data
One full year of recent origin-destination data was obtained from StreetLight Data, Inc. The data
provides insight into travel patterns and distances travelled, by time period, for movements crossing
30 data collection points located on I-40, the Triangle Expressway, and various other roads in the
study area. The location of the 31 StreetLight data collection points can be seen in Figure 2.11. A
description of the 31 data collection points is presented in Table 2.9.
This data is similar to data obtained from license plate surveys. It is not true origin-destination data
but can provide indications of trip distances and travel patterns on select roads. The data points were
selected to obtain trip distance information on the Triangle Expressway and I-40. It was also designed
to determine whether vehicles observed on roads intersecting the proposed 540 were also seen on I-
40, U.S. 1, US 70, or the Triangle Expressway.
The origin-destination data was used in validating select travel patterns and trip distances in the TRM,
and in providing a better understanding of the current travel patterns on the Triangle Expressway.
The uses of the StreetLight data will be discussed in more detail in Chapter 3, Section 3.6.
Table 2.9
StreetLight Data Origin-Destination Locations
Location # Direction Roadway
Corridor 1: Triangle Expressway
1.1 NB/SB To11540
1.2 NB/SB To11540
1.3 NB/SB To11540
1.4 NB/SB To11540
1.5 NB/SB To11540
1.6 NB/SB To11540
1.7 NB/SB To11540
1.8 NB/SB To11540
1.9 NB/SB NC147
Corridor 2: I-40 / I-440
2.1 EB/WB
2.2 EB/WB
2.3 EB/WB
2.4 EB/WB
2.5 EB/WB
2.6 EB/WB
2.7 EB/WB
2.8 EB/WB
3.1 NB/SB
3.2 NB/SB
I-40
I-40
I-40
I-40
I-40
I-40
I-40
I-440
I-40
I-40
Selected Bi-Directional Locations
4.1 EB/WB US1
4.2 NB/SB US401
4.3 EB/WB US646ypass
4.4 EB/WB US64
4.5 EB / WB US 70 Clayton Bypass
4.6 EB/WB US70
4.7 EB/WB US70
Selected Combined Direction Locations
5.1 NB+SB HollySpringsRd.
5.2 NB+SB LakeWheelerRd.
5.3 NB+SB NC50
5.4 NB+SB NC55
5.5 NB+SB OldStageRd.
Data Collected Between These Crossroads
Crossroad 1 Crossroad 2
US 1
Old US Hwy 1
US Hwy 64
Green Level Rd. W
Green Hope School Rd.
NC 55
NC 147 Triangle Expressway
NC 54
Davis Dr.
NC 54
Davis Dr.
Aviation Parkway
Cary Towne Blvd.
US-1 / I-440
Lake Wheeler Rd.
Hammond Rd.
Poole Rd.
Jones Sausage Rd.
N C 42
Ten-Ten Rd.
Donny Brook Rd.
Hodge Rd.
Lake Pine Dr.
I-40
Yeargan Rd.
I-40 / US 70
Sunset Lake Rd.
Optimist Farm Rd.
Cleveland School Rd.
lenks Rd.
Banks Rd.
NC 55 Bypass
US1
Old US Hwy 1
U S Hwy 64
Green Level Rd. W
Green Hope School Rd.
NC 55
NC 147Triangle Expressway
I-540
NC 55
S Miami Blvd.
N Harrison Ave.
US-1 / I-440
Gorman St.
US-401 / S Saunders St.
Rock Quarry Rd.
I-40
I-440
US 70 Clayton Bypass
U 5-64
Ten-Ten Rd.
I-540
US-1
Cornwallis Rd.
Vandora Springs Rd.
Auburn-Knightdale Rd.
Kildaire Farm
Ten-Ten Rd.
Ten-Ten Rd.
Green Level Rd. W
Ten-Ten Rd.
Smith 2-23
May 31, 2017

Complete 540 Planning Level
X:\TFTGroup\Projects\NC2137032016Complete540\Graphics\FInalReportFig�rns\Ar<Map\StreeNights.mxd\5-19-17 Traffie and Revenue Study
�NORTH CAROLINA
Turnpike Authority
�
STREETLIGHT DATA COLLECTION LOCATIONS
FIGURE 2.11

Chapter 3
Model Review, Refinement and Calibration
This chapter describes the Triangle Regional Model (TRM) and the review and modifications
made to the TRM for use in developing the traffic and toll revenue estimates for this study. The
configuration of the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540 and the assumed toll locations on
Complete 540 are also presented.
3.1 Regional Traffic Demand Model Description
The Triangle Regional Model version 5 was used for this study. The TRMvS is the official travel
demand model of the Research Triangle region and is used by the Capital Area Metropolitan
Planning Organization (CAMPO), the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning
Organization (DCHC MPO), the North Carolina Department of Transportation, and Go Triangle.
The model is maintained by the Triangle Regional Model Service Bureau, a division of the
Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE) of North Carolina State University.
TRMvS was the currently adopted model at the time of this study. It supports network and trip
table years 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2040. ITRE calibrated the model to 2010 conditions. The
model was developed using population and employment data for 2005. The model includes all of
Orange, Wake and Durham counties, and parts of Chatham, Person, Granville, Franklin,lVash,
Johnston, and Harnett counties. There are 2,579 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) and ninety-nine
external stations in the TRMv5. Figure 3.1 shows the model region, including the highlighted
Triangle Expressway and Complete 540 alignment. The Triangle Expressway is located primarily
in Wake County and partially in Durham County, and the proposed Complete 540 is located
entirely in Wake County.
The TRMvS provides weekday trip tables in 8 time periods, representing peak period conditions
and off-peak conditions. The 8 time periods are defined below:
• AM Peak Period (AM1-AM3)
o AM1: 6:00 AM-7:30 AM
o AM2: 7:30 AM-8:30 AM
o AM3: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
• PM Peak Period (PM1-PM3)
o PM1: 3:30 PM-5:00 PM
o PM2: 5:00 PM-6:00 PM
o PM3: 6:00 PM-7:30 PM
• Off-Peak Period (OP1 and OP2)
o OP1: 10:00 AM-3:30 PM
o OP2: 7:30 PM-6:00 AM
Smith 3-1
May 31, 2017

Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
LEGEND
Network Links
Triangle Expressway
----- Proposed Complete 540
;��;�N�RTH CAROLINA
Turnpike Authority
TRMv5 REGION
FIGURE 3.1

Chapter 3• Model Review, Refinement and Calibration
3.2 Model Demographics Summary
CDM Smith reviewed the future-year assumptions in the TRMvS regarding the number of
households and employment levels by TAZ for years 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2040 in the study
area. These demographics directly influence the number of trips and the travel patterns in the
model and are based on assumed land-uses in the model region. This review was conducted to
understand the demographic assumptions in the TRMv5. As this is a planning level study, CDM
Smith did not request an independent review of the land-use and demographic assumptions in
the model. The traffic and toll revenue forecasts in this study are based on the demographic and
economic assumptions in the TRMvS.
Table 3.1 provides a summary of the number of households in geographic units called
superzones within the detailed study area for years 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2040. The superzones
are aggregations of the smaller TAZs. Table 3.1 also shows the change in the number of
households between each year, and the average annual percent change in households between
each year.
Figure 3.2 graphically shows the total change in number of households from 2015 to 2040 in the
TRMv5. Darker shading indicates higher numbers of added households. The highest levels of
growth in households within the study area are forecast to occur along the Triangle
Expressway/NC 55 corridor, the Complete 540 corridor, and the I-40 corridor south of the
Beltline.
Table 3.2 provides an employment summary by superzone for years 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2040,
including the change in the number of households between each year, and the average annual
percent change in households between each year. Figure 3.3 graphically shows the total change
in employment from 2015 to 2040 in the TRMv5. The highest levels of growth in employment
within the detailed study area are forecast to occur along the Triangle Expressway/NC 55
corridor extending south to Fuquay Varina, and scattered communities to the south and east of
Raleigh including Garner and Auburn.
3.3 Future Roadway Improvements
The TRMvS model contains assumed future-year roadway improvements. The roadway improvement
assumptions were reviewed for years 2020, 2030 and 2040 and compared against the following two
documents.
1. Draft NCDOT 2017-2027 STIP (January 2017)
2. NC Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) 2040 Metropolitan
Transportation Plan (Amended September 2015)
There were several purposes for this review, including:
1. Determine if there were updates to planned road improvements that needed to be reflected in
the networks used in this study. The review focused on roadway improvement plans that
would add capacity to existing roads, or create a new road in the study area.
2. Determine if the improvement was reflected in the correct model year.
Smith 3-3
May 31, 2017

Chapter 3• Model Review, Refinement and Calibration
Table 3.1
Total Change in TRMvS Number of Households
TRMvS Number of Households by Superzone
AAPC (1) AAPC (1) AAPC (1) AAPC (1)
Superzone 2015 Difference 2015-20 2020 Difference 2020-30 2030 Difference 2030-40 2040 2015-40
1 10,587 483 0.9% 11,070 962 0.8% 12,032 963 0.8% 12,995 0.8%
2 7,939 1,446 3.4% 9,385 2,899 2.7% 12,284 2,893 2.1% 15,177 2.6%
3 4,663 357 1.5% 5,020 720 1.3% 5,740 715 1.2% 6,455 1.3%
4 4 0 0.0% 4 0 0.0% 4 0 0.0% 4 0.0%
5 6,848 476 1.4% 7,324 954 1.2% 8,278 954 1.1% 9,232 1.2%
6 1,490 318 3.9% 1,808 634 3.1% 2,442 634 2.3% 3,076 2.9%
7 3,607 532 2.8% 4,139 1,061 2.3% 5,200 1,071 1.9% 6,271 2.2%
8 6,346 735 2.2% 7,081 1,471 1.9% 8,552 1,469 1.6% 10,021 1.8%
9 4,503 745 3.1% 5,248 1,491 2.5% 6,739 1,492 2.0% 8,231 2.4%
10 5,539 120 0.4% 5,659 240 0.4% 5,899 240 0.4% 6,139 0.4%
11 1,793 198 2.1% 1,991 397 1.8% 2,388 393 1.5% 2,781 1.8%
12 8,803 237 0.5% 9,040 477 0.5% 9,517 476 0.5% 9,993 0.5%
13 3,643 812 4.1% 4,455 1,624 3.2% 6,079 1,626 2.4% 7,705 3.0%
14 4,709 627 2.5% 5,336 1,258 2.1% 6,594 1,255 1.8% 7,849 2.1%
15 3,984 96 0.5% 4,080 202 0.5% 4,282 197 0.5% 4,479 0.5%
16 1,643 1,309 12.4% 2,952 2,622 6.6% 5,574 2,621 3.9% 8,195 6.6%
17 5,062 1,023 3.7% 6,085 2,054 3.0% 8,139 2,049 2.3% 10,188 2.8%
18 4,399 1,592 6.4% 5,991 3,190 4.4% 9,181 3,187 3.0% 12,368 4.2%
19 7,909 1,218 2.9% 9,127 2,439 2.4% 11,566 2,440 1.9% 14,006 2.3%
20 2,939 265 1.7% 3,204 531 1.5% 3,735 530 1.3% 4,265 1.5%
21 13,786 3,479 4.6% 17,265 6,961 3.4% 24,226 6,962 2.6% 31,188 3.3%
22 3,525 575 3.1% 4,100 1,151 2.5% 5,251 1,150 2.0% 6,401 2.4%
23 1,429 221 2.9% 1,650 439 2.4% 2,089 441 1.9% 2,530 2.3%
24 2,075 368 3.3% 2,443 737 2.7% 3,180 738 2.1% 3,918 2.6%
25 1,530 236 2.9% 1,766 469 2.4% 2,235 471 1.9% 2,706 2.3%
26 1,658 374 4.2% 2,032 751 3.2% 2,783 751 2.4% 3,534 3.1%
27 2,158 317 2.8% 2,475 631 2.3% 3,106 635 1.9% 3,741 2.2%
28 3,837 728 3.5% 4,565 1,454 2.8% 6,019 1,456 2.2% 7,475 2.7%
29 1,894 545 5.2% 2,439 1,087 3.8% 3,526 1,089 2.7% 4,615 3.6%
30 3,759 640 3.2% 4,399 1,254 2.5% 5,653 1,459 2.3% 7,112 2.6%
31 4,662 521 2.1% 5,183 1,017 1.8% 6,200 1,220 1.8% 7,420 1.9%
32 2,043 457 4.1% 2,500 894 3.1% 3,394 1,038 2.7% 4,432 3.1%
33 6,341 859 2.6% 7,200 1,683 2.1% 8,883 2,013 2.1% 10,896 2.2%
34 3,405 1,108 5.8% 4,513 2,216 4.1% 6,729 2,214 2.9% 8,943 3.9%
35 1,375 426 5.5% 1,801 855 4.0% 2,656 867 2.9% 3,523 3.8%
36 4,860 1,190 4.5% 6,050 2,383 3.4% 8,433 2,380 2.5% 10,813 3.3%
37 2,328 584 4.6% 2,912 1,171 3.4% 4,083 1,170 2.6% 5,253 3.3%
38 3,373 267 1.5% 3,640 535 1.4% 4,175 534 1.2% 4,709 1.3%
39 4,210 890 3.9% 5,100 1,789 3.1% 6,889 1,786 2.3% 8,675 2.9%
40 7,764 1,490 3.6% 9,254 2,981 2.8% 12,235 2,982 2.2% 15,217 2.7%
41 15,422 1,303 1.6% 16,725 2,594 1.5% 19,319 2,606 1.3% 21,925 1.4%
42 11,952 520 0.9% 12,472 1,042 0.8% 13,514 1,044 0.7% 14,558 0.8%
43 27,840 727 0.5% 28,567 1,476 0.5% 30,043 1,470 0.5% 31,513 0.5%
Area Total 227,636 30,414 2.5% 258,050 60,796 2.1% 318,846 61,681 1.8% 380,527 2.1%
(1) AAPC - Average Annual Percent Change
Smith 3-4
May 31, 2017

Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
N ,i 70 98 � 98 � \�-
� \
,�
� � '�' � 501 �� /' 98 �
� f 50 I
$s �
f ( � � � �,x� � ��" �, i �� ' � _ 98
' v
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ll � �
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Orange_,�r � 5 , ,���_, ,; �� �`��
� � �
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� j � � �� ;� �
- ------------ '--_ ----�- , 4 �� - _ , \ Ir \ 64 %
� 8 — � ., �� __ �---F ' ��'I ` ?`ry � %
� , i, _ � �
501 ; � - �
� � 540� �` � ��'j _ 401 � 264� 64 I �� ��
�� � �, 10 t � � 70 � � � �� � �_
1 55 - /
- , 9 �R
� / '
�`�'�� , � 43 Raleigh � �
� rtham Co %�'t , '�, 'r'� � � 38 39 � �^, _
� = �` 12 �.� ��r� � � � �' ���
r - 11 � 64 �. � i- i ��,
� � , �
�;a} , 15 64 � 401 qp 36 r 37 �S� I� ' 1,
64 ---�--�-
` 42 � � T �--)
f / �
,-�- '
� ;� �13� ���� � 41 �� �� '�' S40 ; __�,,� ���� 10��1115t011 CO `�f�\ -
/ � 17��C ' � \\ 1`.
' 20 ;; 35 =-:-r� �'' -
LEGEND % ��� �"�34 � `"�� _ � �,� -
/ �\
Households � 540 � 23 401 25 aus �� ��,�� � �:�
�
0- 200 � 16 55 I�`� ZZ � 27 � 32 70 �� ��,., �
�, : �, �
201 - 500 19 24 26 29 �1 33 �r �` '�� ' �--
501 - 1,000 ' � � �� "'� �l
,� , ��� ,
1 001 - 2 000 28 �!y ��
� ' ' \ 18 ' � ' 1 -i�'i,�
��
� 2,001 - 3,000 `��� ' 30 31 �1` � I
� Over 3,000 / Z1 �' � �1-'L
i' ` -� ; `,
� Superzone Boundary �, _,\ _ � F =:��`� / 70 = i ��-
--- Proposed Complete 540 � 55 '�/ sus
Triangle Expressway j 401 �� � �� � �
�� ;' �
TOTAL CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS
� NORTH caRo�iNa FROM 2015 TO 2040: TRMvS
; � Turnpike Authority
FIGURE 3.2

Chapter 3• Model Review, Refinement and Calibration
Table 3.2
Total Change in TRMvS Employment
TRMvS Employment by Superzone
AAPC (1) AAPC (1) AAPC (1) AAPC (1)
Superzone 2015 Difference 2015-20 2020 Difference 2020-30 2030 Difference 2030-40 2040 2015-40
1 7,626 581 1.5% 8,207 1,323 1.5% 9,530 1,578 1.5% 11,108 1.5%
2 39,012 4,033 2.0% 43,045 9,226 2.0% 52,271 10,972 1.9% 63,243 2.0%
3 6,059 897 2.8% 6,956 2,006 2.6% 8,962 2,344 2.4% 11,306 2.5%
4 17 19 16.2% 36 42 8.0% 78 48 4.9% 126 8.3%
5 3,081 273 1.7% 3,354 623 1.7% 3,977 737 1.7% 4,714 1.7%
6 22,982 2,115 1.8% 25,097 4,845 1.8% 29,942 5,749 1.8% 35,691 1.8%
7 778 299 6.7% 1,077 680 5.0% 1,757 792 3.8% 2,549 4.9%
8 22,499 2,372 2.0% 24,871 5,305 2.0% 30,176 6,200 1.9% 36,376 1.9%
9 1,449 511 6.2% 1,960 1,149 4.7% 3,109 1,345 3.7% 4,454 4.6%
10 2,364 287 2.3% 2,651 642 2.2% 3,293 749 2.1% 4,042 2.2%
11 1,581 494 5.6% 2,075 1,114 4.4% 3,189 1,296 3.5% 4,485 4.3%
12 4,300 442 2.0% 4,742 992 1.9% 5,734 1,156 1.9% 6,890 1.9%
13 1,188 636 9.0% 1,824 1,420 5.9% 3,244 1,661 4.2% 4,905 5.8%
14 5,286 1,195 4.2% 6,481 2,679 3.5% 9,160 3,125 3.0% 12,285 3.4%
15 9,402 636 1.3% 10,038 1,437 1.3% 11,475 1,682 1.4% 13,157 1.4%
16 2,370 1,548 10.6% 3,918 3,485 6.6% 7,403 4,062 4.5% 11,465 6.5%
17 13,289 1,867 2.7% 15,156 4,214 2.5% 19,370 4,904 2.3% 24,274 2.4%
18 1,127 613 9.1% 1,740 1,369 6.0% 3,109 1,604 4.2% 4,713 5.9%
19 4,878 1,260 4.7% 6,138 2,836 3.9% 8,974 3,304 3.2% 12,278 3.8%
20 1,254 95 1.5% 1,349 212 1.5% 1,561 246 1.5% 1,807 1.5%
21 9,774 1,823 3.5% 11,597 4,116 3.1% 15,713 4,786 2.7% 20,499 3.0%
22 1,189 109 1.8% 1,298 244 1.7% 1,542 284 1.7% 1,826 1.7%
23 432 14 0.6% 446 24 0.5% 470 34 0.7% 504 0.6%
24 620 119 3.6% 739 267 3.1% 1,006 311 2.7% 1,317 3.1%
25 694 14 0.4% 708 32 0.4% 740 41 0.5% 781 0.5%
26 736 156 3.9% 892 345 3.3% 1,237 405 2.9% 1,642 3.3%
27 319 89 5.0% 408 201 4.1% 609 237 3.3% 846 4.0%
28 435 6 0.3% 441 11 0.2% 452 13 0.3% 465 0.3%
29 187 35 3.5% 222 84 3.3% 306 96 2.8% 402 3.1%
30 4,949 506 2.0% 5,455 1,224 2.0% 6,679 1,600 2.2% 8,279 2.1%
31 909 103 2.2% 1,012 236 2.1% 1,248 312 2.3% 1,560 2.2%
32 1,888 209 2.1% 2,097 506 2.2% 2,603 658 2.3% 3,261 2.2%
33 8,534 683 1.6% 9,217 1,643 1.7% 10,860 2,148 1.8% 13,008 1.7%
34 5,339 1,678 5.6% 7,017 3,755 4.4% 10,772 4,381 3.5% 15,153 4.3%
35 901 219 4.4% 1,120 505 3.8% 1,625 626 3.3% 2,251 3.7%
36 721 129 3.3% 850 294 3.0% 1,144 341 2.6% 1,485 2.9%
37 260 39 2.8% 299 76 2.3% 375 96 2.3% 471 2.4%
38 2,910 339 2.2% 3,249 754 2.1% 4,003 883 2.0% 4,886 2.1%
39 2,959 426 2.7% 3,385 947 2.5% 4,332 1,112 2.3% 5,444 2.5%
40 6,474 543 1.6% 7,017 1,236 1.6% 8,253 1,439 1.6% 9,692 1.6%
41 20,421 844 0.8% 21,265 1,908 0.9% 23,173 2,221 0.9% 25,394 0.9%
42 8,878 598 1.3% 9,476 1,348 1.3% 10,824 1,564 1.4% 12,388 1.3%
43 47,982 2,473 1.0% 50,455 5,527 1.0% 55,982 6,436 1.1% 62,418 1.1%
Area Total 278,053 31,327 2.2% 309,380 70,882 2.1% 380,262
(1) AAPC - Average Annual Percent Change
Smith
May 31, 2017
83,578 2.0% 463,840 2.1%
3-6

Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
N ,i 70 98 � 98 � \�-
� \
,�
� � '�' � 501 �� /' 98 �
� f 50 I
$s �
f ( � � � �,x� � ��" �, i �� ' � _ 98
' v
_a � > ''� t, � ��� :� � � _ ���' ' � � —'i
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,� q �_
� T r� _ `,
ll � �
i
~1
�;�� �,� J � 3 � �� � � 409 � �� _ _
Orange_,�r � 5 , ,���_, ,; �� �`��
� � �
) 6 �Wake Co, � � � � _ -`, ,
� j � � �� ;� �
- ------------ '--_ ----�- , 4 �� - _ , \ Ir \ 64 %
� 8 — � ., �� __ �---F ' ��'I ` ?`ry � %
� , i, _ � �
501 ; � - �
� � 540� �` � ��'j _ 401 � 264� 64 I �� ��
�� � �, 10 t � � 70 � � � �� � �_
1 55 - /
- , 9 �R
� / '
�`�'�� , � 43 Raleigh � �
� rtham Co %�'t , '�, 'r'� � � 38 39 � �^, _
� = �` 12 �.� ��r� � � � �' ���
r - 11 � 64 �. � i- i ��,
� � , �
�;a} , 15 64 � 401 qp 36 r 37 �S� I� ' 1,
64 ---�--�-
` 42 � � T �--)
f / �
,-�- '
� ;� �13� ���� � 41 �� �� '�' S40 ; __�,,� ���� 10��1115t011 CO `�f�\ -
/ � 17��C ' � \\ 1`.
' 20 ;; 35 =-:-r� �'' -
LEGEND % ��� �"�34 � `"�� _ � �,� -
/ �\
Households � 540 � 23 401 25 aus �� ��,�� � �:�
�
0- 200 � 16 55 I�`� ZZ � 27 � 32 70 �� ��,., �
�, : �, �
201 - 500 19 24 26 29 �1 33 �r �` '�� ' �--
501 - 1,000 ' � � �� "'� �l
,� , ��� ,
1 001 - 2 000 28 �!y ��
� ' ' \ 18 ' � ' 1 -i�'i,�
��
� 2,001 - 3,000 `��� ' 30 31 �1` � I
� Over 3,000 / Z1 �' � �1-'L
i' ` -� ; `,
� Superzone Boundary �, _,\ _ � F =:��`� / 70 = i ��-
--- Proposed Complete 540 � 55 '�/ sus
Triangle Expressway j 401 �� � �� � �
�� ;' �
TOTAL CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS
� NORTH caRo�iNa FROM 2015 TO 2040: TRMvS
; � Turnpike Authority
FIGURE 3.2

Chapter 3• Model Review, Refinement and Calibration
3. Identify improvements that added capacity and had the potential to impact traffic volumes on
the Triangle Expressway or Complete 540. Of interest was identifying long-range, non-
committed projects that could strongly influence the usage of the Triangle Expressway or
Complete 540.
Based on the review, the assumed improvements in the TRMv5 model were maintained. Although the
assumed opening dates were revised based on conversations with NCDOT staff. Table 3.3 lists some
of the assumed roadway improvements that add capacity to roads in the study area. This list is not all
inclusive. Some of the improvement projects fall outside of the STIP timeframe, but are included as
they are identified in long range plans or in the TRMv5 model.
Figure 3.4 illustrates the projects listed in Table 3.3. The improvements are color coded to indicate
the anticipated timeframe of completion. Of interest are several large projects:
1. I-40: The planned widening of I-40 from the Beltline to NC 42 (Project ID I-5111), by adding
an additional general-purpose lane in each direction. The completion date for this
improvement is January 2022. This is a toll-free roadway that will compete with Segment 3 of
Complete 540.
2. I-40: The non-committed project to add one managed lane in each direction on I-40 from U.S.
501 to Wade Avenue (Project IDs I-5702A and I-5702). This project was included in the
TRMvS and was listed as a long-range plan, although not funded, with a completion date in
2030. The project was included for conservative purposes, as it improves the capacity on I-40
which competes to some extent with Complete 540.
3. I-40/I-440: The non-committed project to add one managed lane in each direction on I-40/I-
440 from Wade Avenue to U.S. 64/264/Knightdale Bypass (Project ID FS-1005A). This project
was in the TRMv5 and was included in this study for conservative purposes as it improves the
capacity on I-40/I-440 which competes to some extent with Complete 540.
4. I-540: The non-committed plan to add one managed lane per direction to the northern outer
loop of I-540 from I-40 to U.S. 64/264/Knightdale Bypass (Project ID FS-1305A). This project
is included in the TRMvS in model year 2030 and was included in this study in model year
2025. This project was included for conservative purposes, as it represents an improvement
to a potentially competing road.
Smith 3-8
May 31, 2017

Chapter 3• Model Review, Refinement and Calibration
Table 33
Selected Future-Year Roadway Improvements
Assumed in the Current Complete 540 Traffic and Revenue Study
Project
STIP/MTP
ID Roadway Location Description
Calendar Years 2019 - 2020
U-5315 Morrisville SR 1600 / SR 1625 (Green Level Church Road) Multi-lane Facility on New Location, Including Interchange
Parkway to East of NC 55 at Toll 540 (Triangle Expressway)
U-5746 US 401 Future NC 540 to SR 1010 (Ten-Ten Road) Widen from 4 to 6 Lanes
Calendar Years 2021 - 2025
FS-1305A I-540 NC 54 to US 64/264 One Managed Lane per Direction
U-2719 I-440 / US 1 South of SR 1313 (Walnut Street) to North of Widen from 4 to 6 Lanes, Improve Storage at Lake Boone
SR 1728 (Wade Avenue) Trail Interchange and Install Ramp Meters
U-2901AC NC 55 US 1 to Apex Peakway Convert Current Multilanes to Median Divided Section
U-29016 NC 55 Apex Peakway to Bryan Drive Widen Remaining 2-Lane Sections to 4 Lanes
R-34106 NC 42 NC SO to U5 70 Bypass Widen from 2 to 4 Lanes
I-5111 I-40 I-40/I-440 Split (Exit 301) TO NC 42 (Exit 312) Add 1 General Purpose Lane Per Direction
I-5506 I-40
I-5700 I-40
SR 1002 (Aviation Parkway) to SR 3015
(Airport Boulevard)
SR 3015 (Airport Boulevard) to I-540
Improve SR 1002 (Aviation Parkway) Interchange and
Construct Auxiliary Lane on I-40 Westbound from SR 1002
(Aviation Parkway) to SR 3015 (Airport Boulevard)
Revise SR 3015 (Airport Boulevard) Interchange and
Construct Auxiliary Lane on I-40 Westbound from SR 3015
(Airport Boulevard) to I-540
I-5707 I-40 NC 55 to NC 147 (Triangle Expressway) Construct Westbound Auxiliary Lane
U-5750 NC 54 NC 540 to Perimeter Park Drive Add 1 or 2 Lanes in Each Direction
U-5811 SR 1002 NC 54 to I-40 Widen to 4 Lanes with Interchange Modifications at I-40
U-5825A SR 1010 Apex Peakway to Reliance Avenue Widen from 2 to 4 Lanes
U-58256 SR 1010 Reliance Avenue to Kildaire Farm Road Widen from 2 to 4 Lanes
U-5827 SR 1632 Poplar Pike Lane in Morrisville to SR 2123 Construct 1 to 2 Lane Roadway on New Location
(Little Drive)
U-5828 McCrimmon SR 3015 (Airport Boulevard) to SR 1002 Widen Existing Portion to 4 Lanes, Extend New 2-Lane
Parkway (Aviation Parkway) Roadway
I-5966 I-40 SR 1002 (Aviation Parkway) to SR 1652 Construct 1 Auxiliary Lane in Both Directions
(Harrison Avenue)
Calendar Years 2026 - 2030
U-5500 SR 1605 / SR 1600 (Green Level Church Road) to NC SS Widen from 2 to 4 Lanes
SR 1615
I-5701 I-40 I-440 / US 64 to Lake Wheeler Road Add 1 General Purpose Lane Per Direction
I-5702A I-40 US 15 / US 501 to NC 147 Construct 1 Managed Lane Per Direction
I-57026 I-40 NC 147 (Triangle Expressway) to SR 1728 Construct 1 Managed Lane Per Direction
U-5936 SR 1728 I-40 to I-440 Add 1 General Purpose Lane Per Direction
Calendar Years 2031 - 2040
F15a US 64 US 1/64 to I-540
F110 US 1 US 64 to NC 540
A113 SR 1010 Holly Springs Rd to Bells Lake Rd
A300 U5 70 US 401 to I-40
A301 U570 I-40to NC42
A400a SR 1010 Bells Lake Rd to Old Stage Rd
FS-1005A I-40 SR 1728 (Wade Avenue) to I-440 / US 64
Smith
May 31, 2017
Widen from 4 to 6 lanes
Widen from 4 to 6 lanes
Widen from 4 to 6 lanes
Widen from 4 to 6 lanes
Widen from 4 to 6 lanes
Widen from 4 to 6 lanes
Construct 1 Managed Lane Per Direction
Assumed
Opening
Date
Jan. 2019
Jan. 2019
1 a n. 2025
1 a n. 2023
1 a n. 2022
1 a n. 2022
1 a n. 2023
1 a n. 2022
Jan. 2021
1 a n. 2023
1 a n. 2023
1 a n. 2022
1 a n. 2025
1 a n. 2022
Jan. 2021
1 a n. 2022
1 a n. 2025
1 a n. 2030
1 a n. 2030
1 a n. 2030
1 a n. 2030
1 a n. 2028
1 a n. 2040
1 a n. 2040
1 a n. 2040
1 a n. 2040
1 a n. 2040
1 a n. 2040
1 a n. 2040
3-9

Chapter 3• Model Review, Refinement and Calibration
3.4 Model Refinement and Calibration
CDM Smith created a 2016 network and trip tables, based on the TRMvS 2015 network and 2015
and 2020 trip tables. The 2016 trip table was created by interpolating between the 2015 and
2020 trip tables. This section describes the reviews and modifications that were made to the
TRMv5 network and trip tables to develop the 2016 and future year networks and trip tables.
CDM Smith already had experience with the TRMvS as it was used in the 2014 NCDOT I-40/I-
440 Managed Lanes Study (NCDOT STIP I-5111 and FS-1005A). During the 2014 NCDOT I-
40/I-440 Study, the TRMvS was modified by CDM Smith to improve calibration and to reflect
more detail in the study corridor. Changes included adjusting some centroid connectors, adding
new road links, disaggregating some TAZs, and validating link distances and number of lanes.
These revisions were reviewed and carried through to the current study. The following describes
additional reviews and modifications that were made to the TRMvS as part of the current study.
3.4.1 Triangle Expressway and Complete 540 Configuration and Toll Concept
Figures 3.5 through 3.9 provide not-to-scale schematics of the existing Triangle Expressway and
Complete 540 that show interchange configurations, numbers of through travel lanes, centerline
distances between interchanges, and tolling-zone locations. Gantries shown in Figures 3.5 through
3.9are not exact locations; they indicate the presence of a toll zone on a ramp or mainline section.
Figures 3.5 through 3.7 portray the Triangle Expressway from north to south, and Figures 3.7 through
3.9 portray Complete 540 from west to east. These schematics are based on available mapping and
aerials of the Triangle Expressway and on plans for Complete 540 provided by the NCTA.
Complete 540 will be a 27.5-mile, six-lane controlled-access facility extending from the NC 55 Bypass
at the southern terminus of the Triangle Expressway to I-495/US 64/264 (Knightdale Bypass) east of
Raleigh, with 11 intermediate interchanges and 12 mainline toll gantries. Segment 1 from the NC 55
Bypass to US 401 will have interchanges with SR 1152 (Holly Springs Road), 1386 (Bells Lake Road),
and US 401 (Fayetteville Road). Segment 2 will have interchanges with SR 1006 (Old Stage Road), NC
50 (Benson Road), and I-40. Segment 3 will have interchanges with SR 2700 (White Oak Road), US 70
Business, SR 2542 (Rock Quarry Road), SR 2555 (Auburn Knightdale Road), SR 1007 (Poole Road),
and US 264 (Knightdale Bypass). In this study, it is assumed that a toll zone will be located on each
mainline section of Complete 540 as shown in Figures 3.7 through 3.9.
The TRMv5 model includes the Triangle Expressway and the Complete 540. The network coding
of these projects was checked against aerials and against plans for Complete 540 provided by the
NCTA. Minor changes were made so the network coding matched ground conditions for the
Triangle Expressway and the plans for Complete 540. A speed limit of 70 mph was assumed for
modeling the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540.
3.4.2 Other Network Modifications
The network in the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540 corridors was reviewed for centroid
connection locations, free-flow and congested travel speeds, capacities, TAZ size, and to
determine if additional road links were needed. Only minor modifications were made, consisting
primarily of input speeds, centroid connectors, and the addition of some auxiliary lanes. Most of
these changes were made in the Triangle Expressway/NC 55 corridor.
Smith 3-11
May 31, 2017

�
140J
.7
1i6
3
3
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
1978
Hopson Rd. Davis Dr.
19
iles
—3
—3
54
Chapel Hill Rd.
. 00
1iles
�c
1.82
Miles LEGEND
.q
� NORTH CAROLINA
; �� Turnpike Authority
m
Triangle Expressway
3 � —0— Number of Through Travel Lanes
3 � � Mainline Toll Gantry
g � Ramp Toll Gantry
0.00 Distance Between Interchanges
PROJECT CONFIGURATION
TOLL 147 AND TOLL 540
FIGURE 3.5

1.8
Mil�
m
N
� 3
L 3
�
�
�
55
Morrisville Pkwy.
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
Green Level
West Rd.
3
3
3
3
64
3
3
1011
S. Salem St. /
Old US 1
;�"��NORTH CAROLINA
Turnpike Authority
�.94
1iles
O
v
3 �
3 L
u
m
�
.57
1iles
U
N
3 �
3 L
�
�
�
LEGEND
Triangle Expressway
—0— Number of Through Travel Lanes
----- Planned Interchange
� Mainline Toll Gantry
� Ramp Toll Gantry
Future Ramp Toll Gantry
0.00 Distance Between Interchanges
PROJECT CONFIGURATION
TOLL 540
FIGURE 3.6

0.9
Mil�
�
Claude E. Pope
Mem. Hwy.
Old Holly Springs
Apex Rd.
n
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
55
.03
Iiles
3
3
3
3
1152
Hoily Springs Rd.
;�"��NORTH CAROLINA
Turnpike Authority
2.78
Miles
—3
—3
1386
Bells Lake Rd.
65
7es
LEGEND
Triangle Expressway
Complete 540
"I Segment 1
—0— Number of Through Travel Lanes
----- Planned Interchange
� Mainline Toll Gantry
Future Mainline Toll Gantry
Future Ramp Toll Gantry
0.00 Distance Between Interchanges
PROJECT CONFIGURATION
TOLL 540 AND COMPLETE 540 TO US 401
FIGURE 3.7

2.6
Mi6
401
Fayetteville Rd.
.12
�iles
—3
—3
Old Stage Rd.
� NORTH CAROLINA
; �� Turnpike Authority
2.48
Miles
—3
—3
4.07
Vliles
—3
—3
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
50
Benson Rd.
2.44
✓liles
2700
White Oak Rd.
.66
1iles
LEGEND
Complete 540
= I Segment 1
_3 � Segment 2
J
_3 � Segment3
�
� —0— Number of Through Travel Lanes
Future Mainline Toll Gantry
0.00 Distance Between Interchanges
PROJECT CONFIGURATION
COMPLETE 540 FROM US 401 TO WHITE OAK ROAD
FIGURE 3.8

1.
M�
aus
70
1007
Poole Rd.
� NORTH CAROLINA
; �� Turnpike Authority
1.2:
/lile
0.94
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Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
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—3
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LEGEND
Complete 540
Segment 3
—0— Number of Through Travel Lanes
Future Mainline Toll Gantry
0.00 Distance Between Interchanges
PROJECT CONFIGURATION
COMPLETE 540 FROM WHITE OAK ROAD TO I-495
FIGURE 3.9

Chapter 3• Model Review, Refinement and Calibration
3.4.3 Model Calibration
After network modifications were made, the TRMvS model was calibrated in select locations to 2016
weekday conditions. The calibration relied on the traffic counts conducted by The Traffic Group,
NCDOT AADT maps, NCTA traffic data on the Triangle Expressway, INRIX/HERE travel speeds, and
origin-destination data from StreetLight Data. The calibration effort focused on the eight screenlines
developed by CDM Smith, the Triangle Expressway, NC 55, and I-40. During calibration, the 2016 trip
table was modified at key locations to adjust to targeted 2016 weekday traffic volumes at traffic count
locations.
The StreetLight data was used to benchmark trip-distance (origin-destination) distributions at key
locations in the TRMv5 model to actual data. Trip distance distributions were examined on the
Triangle Expressway, and on I-40 (as I-40 trips have the potential to shift to Complete 540 depending
on length and entry/exit locations). Figure 3.10 shows an example of StreetLight trip- distribution
data on the Triangle Expressway. Location 1.9 (designated by a red star), is the destination zone on
the mainline section of Toll 147 between Davis Drive and Toll 540. The percent trip-distribution of
Location 1.9 northbound weekday traffic is shown at downstream locations. For example, of the total
traffic passing through Location 1.9 in the northbound direction, 51.4 percent also passed through
Location 1.5, and 15.4 percent passed through Location 1.1.
Another example, shown in Figure 3.11, shows I-40 trip distance-distance data for
northbound/westbound travel on I-40 through Location 2.2. Of the traffic passing through Location
2.2 (I-40 between Davis Drive and S. Miami Boulevard) 48.3 percent passed through nearby Location
2.3. Only 3.2 percent passed through Location 3.2. Less than one percent passed through locations 1.8
or 1.4 on the Triangle Expressway, or Location 5.4 on NC 55.
CDM Smith determined that the TRMvS 2016 trip distances were adequate in the study area for this
planning level study. No trip table adjustments were made based on the StreetlLight Data.
3.4.4 Future Year Adjustments and Assignments
Network and trip table adjustments were carried through to future-year networks. The TRMvS
supports future years 2020, 2030 and 2040. CDM Smith created networks and trip tables for 2017,
2019 and 2025 in order to conduct assignments to reflect the opening of the Veridea Parkway
Interchange in 2017, the opening of the Morrisville Parkway Interchange in 2019, and the opening of
Complete 540 segments in 2025. The assignments are described in more detail in Section 4.2.
3.4.5 Next Generation of TRM
All assignments were based on the TRMvS assumed land uses and demographics, and used the TRMvS
trip tables. CDM Smith did not re-run the model's four-step process to generate new trip tables. The
TRM model is in the process of being updated by ITRE to a TRMv6 with updated land uses,
demographics, and road improvements.
Traffic and toll revenue estimates for the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540 are likely to change
based on the new assumptions in the TRMv6. In addition, if traffic and toll revenue forecasts are
developed for an investment grade study, the land use assumptions and demographics will be subject
to an independent review and modifications by an economist that specializes in the study area's
growth and development.
Smith 3-1�
May 31, 2017

Complete 540 Planning Level
. , < Traffic and Revenue Study
� NORTH CAROLINA
; ;� Turnpike Authority
AVERAGE WEEKDAY STREETLIGHT
ORIGIN-DESTINATION SAMPLE
LOCATION 1.9 N B
FIGURE 3.10

Complete 540 Planning Level
_ . Traffic and Revenue Study
� NORTH CAROLINA
; ;� Turnpike Authority
AVERAGE WEEKDAY STREETLIGHT
ORIGIN-DESTINATION SAMPLE
LOCATION 2.2 NB/WB
FIGURE 3.11

Chapter 4 - Draft
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
This chapter presents a summary of the traffic and revenue analysis conducted for the Triangle
Expressway and Complete 540. In addition to an overview of the travel demand modeling process,
this chapter also presents information about basic assumptions and modeling inputs, toll rates, and
traffic and toll revenue forecasts for the for the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540 for each
scenario.
4.1 Summary of Study Methodology
This section describes the methodology used to develop the annual toll traffic and adjusted toll
revenue. A more detailed account of the traffic demand model and the roadway improvements is
provided in Chapter 3.
CDM Smith conducted the traffic and revenue study using the currently adopted Triangle Regional
Model version 5(TRMvS). This modePs base year is 2010, and it supports future-year trip tables
and networks for 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2040. The TRM includes highway and transit networks and
land-use and socio-economic data for each model year. Transit and vehicle trip tables are derived
from the model.
4.1.1 Model Refinement and Calibration
CDM Smith developed a 2016 network and trip tables, and calibrated the model to 2016 conditions
in the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540 corridor. The 2016 trip tables were developed by
interpolating between the TRMv5 2015 and 2020 trip tables. In developing the 2016 network, a
comparison was made between the 2015 network and actual ground conditions observed in aerials
available on the internet. These comparisons were made to validate the 2016 network in the study
area against current conditions.
During the calibration process, CDM Smith reviewed and modified the 2016 network by
disaggregating TAZs, changing centroid connections, and adding additional roads or road segments
to the networks. The 2016 model was calibrated in the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540
corridor by comparing model results with known traffic volumes and travel speeds. StreetLight
Data origin-and-destination information was used to check study-area travel patterns within the
model for reasonableness. Some trip table adjustments were made at select locations to improve
calibration to known traffic volumes. The TRMv5 travel patterns adequately reflected the travel
patterns observed from StreetLight Data on the selected roads so no trip table adjustments were
made to modify travel patterns or trip distances. Changes in the model necessary to achieve
calibration in 2016 were carried forward into the future year networks and trip tables.
Data used for the calibration effort included:
1. Traffic volumes from the NCDOT and NCTA, as well as traffic counts conducted for CDM
Smith by The Traffic Group.
Smith 4-1
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
2. Travel speed data from INRIX and HERE.
3. Origin-destination data obtained from StreetLight Data.
4. Historical method-of-payment market shares between ETC and video on the Triangle
Expressway.
5. Estimates of motorist values-of-time and vehicle operating cost.
4.1.2 Future Year Networks and Trip Tables
CDM Smith developed networks and trip tables for 2017, 2019 and 2025, These were created to
model the opening year of the Veridea Parkway Interchange on the Triangle Expressway (2017),
the Morrisville Parkway Interchange on the Triangle Expressway (2019), the 147 Toll Extension on
the Triangle Expressway, and Complete 540 Segments 1 and 2(2025). The new trip tables were
created by interpolating between existing trip-table years, and the new networks were developed
from an adjacent year and adding or subtracting roadway improvements.
Planned roadway improvements assumed in the TRMv5 were compared to current roadway
improvement plans and changes were made when necessary. The assumed roadway improvements
are described in Chapter 3. Roadway improvements that were assumed in the TRMvS were
maintained, although some changes in the assumed opening year were made after consultation
with the NCDOT.
4.1.3 Traffic Diversion Analysis
Toll diversion assignments were run for years 2017, 2019, 2025, 2030 and 2040. The assignments
were run by eight time-periods, two vehicle classes (car and truck), and two methods-of-payment
(ETC and video).
In the future-year toll diversion assignments, the NCTA adopted toll schedule was used for the
Triangle Expressway. Assumed toll rates on Complete 540 are based on the through-trip per-mile
toll rate on the Triangle Expressway for each assignment year. The toll schedule adopted by the
NCTA assumes an annual toll rate increase to keep pace with inflation forecasts. Toll-rate structure
assumptions are described in Section 4.3 and assumed toll rates are described in Section 4.4
The toll diversion assignments result in calendar-year average annual weekday traffic forecasts by
toll zone on the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540. Weekday traffic volumes for non-
assignment years were interpolated from adjacent assignment years. Weekday traffic forecasts for
years beyond 2040 (the last assignment year) were developed by assuming an annual increase
based on decreasing the prior trend line.
Average weekday traffic volumes were converted into annual volumes at each toll zone by applying
an annualization factor. The factor accounts for the number of weekdays, week-end days, and
holidays in a year, and the differing traffic volumes that occur on those days. An annualization
factor of 308 was used, meaning the annual traffic is equivalent to 308 days of weekday traffic. The
factor was derived from one complete year of 2016 daily traffic data from all tolled locations on the
Triangle Expressway. Annual toll revenue estimates were calculated by multiplying annualized
traffic volumes for each toll zone by the corresponding toll rate. Traffic and toll revenue forecasts
Smith 4-Z
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
were developed first for calendar years, because the TRM model operates on a calendar year basis.
The forecasts were then converted to the NCDOT fiscal year, which begins on July 1.
For purposes of this study, revenue leakage due to unreadable or uncollectible ETC or video
transactions, or any transactions that cannot be processed and payment collected, were assumed to
be offset by fee revenue as observed in actual experience on the Triangle Expressway.
4.2 Model Assignments
Table 4.1 summarizes the model assignments required for the study scenarios described in
Chapter 1 and shown in Figure 1.1. The assignments were designed to establish an updated traffic
and revenue forecast for the existing Triangle Expressway, and estimate the traffic and toll revenue
impacts associated with extending the Triangle Expressway eastward for the different Complete
540 alternatives. A no-build condition (Scenario 0) was analyzed to provide a baseline comparison
with the build conditions. Scenario 0 assumed there were no improvements to the Triangle
Expressway and Complete 540 would not be constructed. Scenario 1, the Triangle Expressway Base
Build Condition, assumes the existing Triangle Expressway and its two new interchanges, the
Veridea Parkway Interchange and the Morrisville Parkway Interchange. No sections of Complete
540 are assumed to be constructed. Scenarios 2 through 4 assume the Triangle Expressway Build
condition, and the addition of progressively more segments of Complete 540. Scenario 1.1 tests the
impact of an extension of Toll 147 southward to McCrimmon Parkway on Scenario 1. Scenario 1.1
assumptions are not carried forward to Scenarios 2, 3, or 4.
4.3 Basic Assumptions
4.3.1 Toll Collection on Complete 540
Complete 540 toll collection is assumed to be consistent with the Triangle Expressway's toll
structure. Tolls will be collected via NC Quick Pass (NCDOT's ETC program) or by Bill by Mail
(BBM), NCDOT's video toll collection program. The 1VC Quick Pass program is currently
interoperable with Georgia's Peach Pass, Florida's Sun Pass and E-ZPass. Throughout this study,
ETC refers to NC Quick Pass and the other interoperable systems. This interoperability
arrangement is assumed to continue through the forecast period of this study.
All vehicles will be permitted to use Complete 540. The following three toll classes will be
implemented:
■ Class 1(2-axle vehicles): all two-axle vehicles regardless of the number of tires.
■ Class 2(3-axle vehicles): all three-axle vehicles including two-axle vehicles towing a single-
axle trailer.
Class 3(4-or-more axle vehicles): all vehicles with four-or-more axles (4+) including two-
axle vehicles towing a dual-axle trailer.
Motorists who pay with NC Quick Pass (or interoperable systems) will receive a 35 percent
discount from the BBM rates. Class 2 toll rates will equal two times the Class 1 toll rate, and Class 3
toll rates will equal four times the Class 1 toll rate.
Smith 4-3
May 30, 2017

Chap�er 4• I raffic ancl Revenue Analysis
Table 4.1
Model Assignments
Existing Future Year Assignments
Scenario 2016 2017 2019 2025 2030 2040
Scenario 0(Triangle Expressway Calibration and Future No-Build)
Triangle Expressway- No Improvements x x x x x x
Scenario 1(Triangle Expressway Base Build )
Triangle Expressway x
Veridea Pkwy Interchange x x x x x
Morrisville Pkwy Interchange x x x x
Scenario 1.1 (Triangle Expressway Sencitivity Test - Toll 147 Ext)
Triangle Expressway x
Veridea Pkwy Interchange x x x x x
Morrisville Pkwy Interchange x x x x
Toll 147 Ext. to McCrimmon Pkwy x x x x
Scenario 2(Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to U.S. 401)
Triangle Expressway (Scenario 1) x
Veridea Interchange x x x x x
Morrisville Pkwy Interchange x
Complete 540
Segment 1: NC 55 Bypass to U.S. 401
Scenario 3(Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to Interstate
Triangle Expressway (Scenario 1) x
Veridea Pkwy Interchange x x
Morrisville Pkwy Interchange x
Complete 540
Segment 1: NC 55 to U.S. 401
Segment 2: U.S. 401 to I-40
Scenario 4(Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to U.S. 64/264 E
Triangle Expressway (Scenario 1) x
Veridea Pkwy Interchange x x
Morrisville Pkwy Interchange x
Complete 540
Segment 1: NC 55 Bypass to U.S. 401
Segment 2: U.S. 401 to I-40
Segment l: I-40 to U.S.64/264 Bypass
Note: Highlight indicates change in configuration compared to prior scenario.
4.3.2 Other Basic Assumptions
The traffic and revenue estimates for the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540 are predicated on
the following basic assumptions, which are considered reasonable for purposes of this study:
1. The assumed opening dates for improvements on the Triangle Expressway and sections of
Complete 540 occur on the first day of the indicated year in Table 4.1
Smith 4-4
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
2. Tolls will be charged for the three vehicle classes and two payment types described in Section
4.3.1 Toll Collection. The toll rates will be increased annually to keep up with inflation. The toll
rates and tolling zone locations are provided in Section 4.4 Future Year Toll Rate Assumptions.
3. No transportation improvement projects, particularly new roads, additional road capacity, or
new interchanges on limited access roads will be constructed during the forecast period, other
than those included in the TRMv5. Assumed roadway improvements are discussed in Chapter
3.
4. The annual percentage of ETC and BBM transactions will match the assumed market shares
described in Section 4.5.1.
5. Economic growth in the project study area by TAZs will occur as forecast in the socioeconomic
data contained in the TRMv5.
6. Revenue leakage due to unreadable or uncollectible ETC or BBM transactions, or any
transactions that cannot be processed and payment collected, will be offset by fee revenue as
observed in actual experience on the Triangle Expressway.
Annual inflation rates are assumed to be 2.0 percent per year throughout the forecast period.
8. Motor fuel will remain in adequate supply throughout the forecast period. Fuel price forecasts
were obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration in a report titled Annual
Energy Outlook 2015 with projections to 2040. The forecast fuel costs were incorporated into
the estimated vehicle operating costs.
9. No national or regional emergency will arise that would abnormally restrict the use of motor
vehicles.
Any significant departure from these basic assumptions could materially affect traffic and revenue
potential on the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540.
4.4 Future Year Toll Rate Assumptions
4.4.1 Triangle Expressway Toll Rate Schedule
Table 4.2 shows Triangle Expressway Class 1 ETC and video toll rates, by tolling zone, from 2016
through 2055. The toll zone locations are shown in Figure 4.1. Toll rates on the Triangle
Expressway through 2051 have been officially adopted by the NCDOT, including the rates at the
recently opened Veridea Parkway. Toll rates have been officially adopted for the Morrisville. Toll
rates for the proposed Toll 147 Extension (Scenario 1.1) are presented in Section 4.8.
Smith 4-s
May 30, 2017

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Table 4.2
Triangle Expressway Class 1 Toll Rates
Hopson Rd NC 147/NC 540 NC 147/NC 540 NC 540 Planned Morrisville NC 540 NC 540 NC 540 NC 540 Veridea Pkwy NC 540
Toll Zones Toll Zones Toll Zones Toll Zones Parkway Ramps Toll Zones Toll Zones Toll Zones Toll Zones Ramps Toll Zones
TO1/T02 T09/T10 TOS/T06 T13/T14 to/from north T17/T18 T21/T22 T25/T26 T29/T30 to/from north T33/T34
Year ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video
2016 $ 034 $ 0.52 $ OJ6 $ 1.16 $ 0.95 $ 1.45 $ 0.61 $ 0.93 -- -- $ OJ6 $ 1.16 $ 0.42 $ 0.64 $ 0.94 $ 1.44 $ 0.24 $ 036 -- -- $ 039 $ 0.60
2017 0.36 0.54 0.75 1.20 0.98 1.50 0.63 0.96 -- -- 0.78 1.20 0.43 0.66 0.97 1.49 0.25 0.37 $ 0.27 $ 0.41 0.40 0.62
2018 0.37 0.56 0.81 1.24 1.01 1.55 0.65 1.00 -- -- 0.81 1.24 0.45 0.69 1.01 1.54 0.26 0.39 0.28 0.43 0.42 0.64
2019 0.38 0.58 0.84 1.29 1.05 1.61 0.67 1.03 $ 0.46 $ 0.71 0.84 1.29 0.47 0.71 1.04 1.60 0.26 0.40 0.29 0.44 0.44 0.67
2020 0.39 0.60 0.87 1.33 1.08 1.66 0.70 1.07 0.48 0.73 0.87 1.33 0.48 0.73 1.08 1.65 0.28 0.42 0.30 0.46 0.45 0.69
2021 0.41 0.62 0.90 1.38 1.12 1.72 0.72 1.10 0.49 0.76 0.90 1.38 0.50 0.76 1.11 1.70 0.28 0.43 0.31 0.47 0.47 0.71
2022 0.42 0.64 0.93 1.42 1.16 1.77 0.74 1.13 0.51 0.78 0.93 1.42 0.51 0.78 1.14 1.75 0.30 0.45 0.32 0.49 0.48 0.73
2023 0.43 0.66 0.95 1.46 1.19 1.52 0.77 1.17 0.52 O.SO 0.95 1.46 0.53 0.81 1.17 1.50 0.30 0.46 0.33 0.50 0.49 0.75
2024 0.45 0.65 0.99 1.51 1.23 1.SS 0.79 1.20 0.54 O.S3 0.99 1.51 0.54 0.83 1.21 1.56 0.31 0.47 0.34 0.52 0.51 0.75
2025 0.46 0.70 1.01 1.55 1.27 1.94 0.81 1.24 0.55 O.SS 1.01 1.55 0.56 0.86 1.25 1.91 0.32 0.49 0.35 0.53 0.52 0.80
2026 0.47 0.72 1.04 1.60 1.30 1.99 0.84 1.28 0.57 O.SS 1.04 1.60 0.58 0.88 1.29 1.97 0.33 0.50 0.36 0.55 0.54 0.82
2027 0.49 0.74 1.OS 1.65 1.34 2.05 0.86 1.31 0.59 0.90 1.08 1.65 0.60 0.91 1.32 2.03 0.34 0.52 0.37 0.57 0.56 0.85
2028 0.50 0.76 1.11 1.70 1.38 2.12 0.88 1.35 0.61 0.93 1.11 1.70 0.61 0.93 1.36 2.09 0.35 0.53 0.38 0.58 0.57 0.87
2029 0.52 0.79 1.14 1.75 1.42 2.18 0.91 1.39 0.62 0.96 1.14 1.75 0.63 0.96 1.40 2.15 0.36 0.55 0.39 0.60 0.59 0.90
2030 0.53 0.81 1.17 1.80 1.46 2.24 0.94 1.44 0.64 0.99 1.17 1.80 0.65 0.99 1.45 2.22 0.37 0.56 0.40 0.62 0.61 0.93
2031 0.54 0.83 1.21 1.85 1.51 2.31 0.97 1.48 0.66 1.01 1.21 1.85 0.67 1.02 1.49 2.29 0.38 0.58 0.42 0.64 0.63 0.96
2032 0.56 O.SS 1.25 1.91 1.55 2.35 0.99 1.52 0.65 1.05 1.25 1.91 0.69 1.05 1.54 2.36 0.39 0.59 0.43 0.66 0.65 0.99
2033 O.SS O.SS 1.25 1.96 1.60 2.45 1.03 1.57 0.70 1.07 1.28 1.96 0.71 1.08 1.SS 2.43 0.40 0.61 0.44 0.65 0.67 1.02
2034 0.60 0.91 1.32 2.02 1.64 2.52 1.06 1.62 0.72 1.11 1.32 2.02 0.73 1.11 1.63 2.50 0.41 0.63 0.45 0.70 0.69 1.05
2035 0.61 0.93 1.36 2.OS 1.69 2.60 1.09 1.67 0.74 1.14 1.36 2.08 0.75 1.15 1.65 2.57 0.43 0.65 0.47 0.72 0.71 1.OS
2036 0.63 0.96 1.40 2.14 1.75 2.68 1.12 1.72 0.76 1.17 1.40 2.14 0.77 1.18 1.72 2.63 0.44 0.66 0.48 0.73 0.73 1.10
2037 0.64 0.98 1.43 2.18 1.78 2.73 1.14 1.75 0.78 1.20 1.43 2.18 0.79 1.21 1.75 2.68 0.45 0.67 0.49 0.75 0.74 1.12
2038 0.65 1.00 1.46 2.22 1.82 2.78 1.16 1.78 0.80 1.23 1.46 2.22 0.81 1.23 1.78 2.73 0.46 0.68 0.49 0.76 0.75 1.14
2039 0.66 1.02 1.49 2.26 1.86 2.84 1.18 1.82 0.82 1.26 1.49 2.26 0.83 1.25 1.82 2.78 0.47 0.69 0.50 0.77 0.76 1.16
2040 0.67 1.04 1.52 2.30 1.90 2.90 1.20 1.86 O.S4 1.29 1.52 2.30 0.85 1.27 1.86 2.54 0.45 0.70 0.51 0.79 0.77 1.15
2041 0.65 1.06 1.54 2.33 1.93 2.94 1.22 1.89 O.SS 1.31 1.54 2.33 0.87 1.30 1.89 2.SS 0.49 0.71 0.52 O.SO 0.78 1.20
2042 0.69 1.07 1.56 2.35 1.95 2.97 1.23 1.91 O.S6 1.32 1.56 2.35 0.88 1.32 1.91 2.91 0.50 0.72 0.52 O.S1 0.79 1.21
2043 0.70 1.OS 1.SS 2.37 1.97 3.00 1.24 1.93 O.S7 1.34 1.58 2.37 0.89 1.33 1.93 2.94 0.51 0.73 0.53 O.S1 0.80 1.22
2044 0.71 1.09 1.60 2.39 1.99 3.03 1.25 1.95 O.SS 1.36 1.60 2.39 0.90 1.34 1.95 2.97 0.52 0.74 0.53 O.S2 0.81 1.23
2045 0.72 1.10 1.62 2.41 2.01 3.06 1.26 1.97 0.89 1.37 1.62 2.41 0.91 1.35 1.97 3.00 0.53 0.75 0.54 0.83 0.82 1.24
2046 0.73 1.11 1.64 2.43 2.03 3.09 1.27 1.99 0.90 1.39 1.64 2.43 0.92 1.36 1.99 3.03 0.54 0.76 0.54 0.83 0.83 1.25
2047 0.74 1.12 1.66 2.45 2.05 3.12 1.28 2.01 0.91 1.40 1.66 2.45 0.93 1.37 2.01 3.06 0.55 0.77 0.55 0.84 0.84 1.26
2048 0.75 1.13 1.68 2.47 2.07 3.15 1.29 2.03 0.92 1.42 1.68 2.47 0.94 1.38 2.03 3.09 0.56 0.78 0.55 0.85 0.85 1.27
2049 0.76 1.14 1.70 2.49 2.09 3.18 1.30 2.05 0.93 1.43 1.70 2.49 0.95 1.39 2.05 3.12 0.57 0.79 0.55 0.85 0.86 1.28
2050 0.77 1.15 1.72 2.51 2.11 3.21 1.31 2.07 0.94 1.45 1.72 2.51 0.96 1.40 2.07 3.15 O.SS 0.80 0.56 0.86 0.87 1.29
2051 0.78 1.16 1.74 2.53 2.13 3.24 1.32 2.09 0.95 1.46 1.74 2.53 0.97 1.41 2.09 3.15 0.59 0.81 0.56 0.87 0.88 1.30
2052 0.79 1.17 1.76 2.55 2.15 3.27 1.33 2.11 0.96 1.45 1.76 2.55 0.98 1.42 2.11 3.21 0.60 O.S2 0.57 O.SS 0.89 1.31
2053 0.80 1.18 1.78 2.57 2.17 3.30 1.34 2.13 0.97 1.49 1.78 2.57 0.99 1.43 2.13 3.24 0.61 0.83 0.58 0.89 0.90 1.32
2054 0.81 1.19 1.80 2.59 2.19 3.33 1.35 2.15 0.98 1.51 1.80 2.59 1.00 1.44 2.15 3.27 0.62 0.84 0.59 0.90 0.91 1.33
2055 0.82 1.20 1.82 2.61 2.21 3.36 1.36 2.17 0.99 1.52 1.82 2.61 1.01 1.45 2.17 3.30 0.63 0.85 0.60 0.91 0.92 1.34
Average Annual Percent Change in Toll Rates
2016-2025 3.4 3.4 3.2
2025-2030 2.9 3.0 3.0
2030-2035 2.9 2.8 3.1
2035-2040 1.9 2.3 2.2
2040-2045 1.4 1.1 1.3
2045-2050 1.4 0.9 1.2
2050-2055 1.3 0.9 1.1
2016-2040 2.9 2.9 2.9
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 -- --
3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1
2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9
2.0 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.5
0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2
0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1
O.S 0.9 0.9 O.S 0.9 1.0 0.9
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 - -
3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.5 -- -- 3.2 3.2
3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.1
3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.0
2.2 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.8
1.3 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.0
1.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.8
1.1 O.S 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.8
2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8
2.9 2.9
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Toll Zone T05 & T06
Tall Zone T09 & T10
IToll Z�ne T�3 & T14
Inset
LEGEND
Triangle Expressway
— Ramp Toll Zone
— Mainline Toll Zone
(0.0J— Distance Between
Interchanges (Miles)
� NORTH CAROLINA
; ,� Turnpike Authority
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
N
Q147 �
.... /
�� �
�
�
�1.8�
. . o
. . v
HoPso� Rd. 540
(0.4) (Z.z� /
o` �
� \
55 °� , (1.0)
Seelnset 54
(i. s)
r�.��
7011 Zone T17
ToII Zo.ne T28'
� ��
Toll 2one T21
7011 Zon�e T22'
.
Toll Zone T25
To;pl: Zone T26 �
, Toll Zone T29
�� ,, p
Top Zone T34 ,� Toll Zone T33
� . 'f�, �
Q,F�y (11 J \
a�a
,ei �
Bypass
TRIANGLE EXPRESSWAY TOLL ZONES
FIGURE 4.1

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
In all years, Class 2 rates are double Class 1 rates, and Class 3 rates are four times Class 1 rates. ETC
toll rates receive a 35 percent discount from video toll rates. Annual rate adjustments take place
each January 1 to account for the impacts of annual inflation.
Toll rates increase by an average of 2.9 percent per year from 2016 through 2051. Annual rate
increases decrease over time, averaging 3.3 percent per year from 2016 through 2025, and
decreasing to 1.2 percent or less from 2040 through 2055.
Figure 4.2 graphically displays the 2025 ETC and video toll rates by tolling zone for Class 1, Class 2
and Class 3 vehicles. At 20251evels, the ETC toll for a full-length trip through all four mainline
tolling zones on the To11540 portion of the Triangle Expressway will total $3.59 for Class 1 vehicles,
$7.18 for Class 2 vehicles and $14.36 for Class 3 vehicles. This results in per-mile toll rates for Class
1, Class 2 and Class 3 vehicles of $0.24, $0.48 and $0.95, respectively. The through trip on the Toll
540 portion of the Triangle Expressway is approximately 15.1 miles.
4.4.2 Complete 540 Toll Rate Schedule
Table 4.3 shows the assumed Complete 540 Class 1 ETC and video toll rates, by tolling zone, from
2025 through 2055. It was assumed that each mainline section of Complete 540 will be tolled on a
per-mile basis, and the per-mile toll rates would equal the through-trip per-mile rate on the
Triangle Expressway for any given year. The through-trip per-mile toll rates on the To11540 portion
of the Triangle Expressway are shown in Table 4.4 for 2016, 2025, 2030 and 2040. Toll rates on
Complete 540 are assumed to increase annually at a growth rate similar to the annual increases on
the Triangle Expressway.
Table 4.4
Through-Trip Per-Mile
Toll Rates on the Triangle Expressway
Calendar
Year
Per-Mile
Through Distance Toll
Trip Toll (miles) Rate
2016 $ 2.70
2025 3.59
2030 4.04
2040 5.35
15.10 $ 0.179
15.10 0.238
15.10 0.268
15.10 0.354
Toll rates on Complete 540 maintain the same relationships between vehicle classes and payment
methods as those utilized on the Triangle Expressway. Figure 4.3 presents the 2025 ETC and video
toll rates at each tolling zone for by vehicle class and payment method.
Smith 4-8
May 30, 2017

$1.27 ($1.94)
$2.54 ($3.88)
� �.�1� � �,Y�, p�.�
$1.01 ($1.55)
$2.02 ($3.10)
��,�� f.��.�a�:9
$0.81 ($1.24)
$1.62 ($2.48)
a3.2� Q$4.�f��
Inset
2025 ETC
Through Trip Toll Rates
Via Toll 540
Vehicle Toll
Class Toll Per Mile
Class 1 $3.59 $0.24
Class 2 $7.18 $0.48
Class 3 $14.36 $0.95
LEGEND
Triangle Expressway
- Ramp Toll Zone
- Mainline Toll Zone
(0.0)- Distance Between
Interchanges (Miles)
Toll Rates
ETC Video
$0.00 ($0.00) - Class 1
$0.00 ($0.00) - Class 2
�Cp.�Y�V ����eQ�6�� - Class 3
;�";�NORTH CAROLINA
Turnpike Authority
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
147
..�
�� _ �
�
$0.46 ($0.70)
$0.92 ($1.40) (1.8J
�1.34� i��r.B�;V
Nopson Rd\ 540
(0.4J (1.2) /
o`°o` �
55 � (1.0J
Seelnset 54
(1.8)
$0.55 ($0.85)
$1.10 ($1.70)
$z.2�) $� �•�'�;
Morrisville ParkwaY
(1.8J
Gtee� `eve\ � est Rd.
�� $1.01 ($1.55)
� $2.02 ($3.10)
, ����� �;,t�.20�
(2.6J $0.56 ($0.86)
$1.12 ($1.72)
t '.�L' �,:��.!��'i
;
$1.25 ($1.91) �2•8� oia
$2.50 ($3.82) �
S�.Ji� ���.,°e��4;
$032 ($0.49) (0.9) �
$0.64 ($0.98)
;'�,:Z..?_3 � � �_.n�;�
(o.$)
(1.2)
$0.35 ($0.53) ��.
$0.70 ($1.06) a`� /
s�.L_i.Q� �a�,1r'�� ;ae
�e
$0.52 ($0.80)
$1.04 ($1.60) 55
c�'.Q1'�' {� �.sJj Bypass
TRIANGLE EXPRESSWAY:
2025 ETC AND VIDEO TOLL RATES
FIGURE 4.2

� yv
� �,3W
o R
o s
V
A
N
O
Table 4.3
Complete 540 Class 1 Toll Rates - Mainline Toll Zones
Complete 540 Segment 1 Complete 540 Segment 2 Complete 540 Segment 3
NC Bypass Holly Springs Bells Lake Rd. U.S. 401 Old Stage Rd. NC 50 and I-40 White Oak Rd. Bus. 70 and Rock Quarry Auburn Poole Rd.
and Holly Rd. and and and and and and White and and Rock Rd. and Auburn Knightdale Rd and Knightdale
Springs Rd. Bells Lake Rd. U.S. 401 Old Stage Rd. NC 50 I-40 Oak Rd. Bus. 70 Quarry Rd. Knightdale Rd. and Poole Rd. Bypass
Year ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video
2025 $ 0.72 $ 1.11 $ 0.66 $ 1.02 $ 0.63 $ 0.97 $ 0.51 $ 0.79 $ 0.97 $ 1.49 $ 0.58 $ 0.89 $ 0.59 $ 0.91 $ 0.40 $ 0.62 $ 0.29 $ 0.45 $ 0.60 $ 0.92 $ 0.39 $ 0.60 $ 0.22 $ 0.34
2026 0.75 1.16 0.68 1.05 0.65 1.00 0.52 0.80 1.00 1.54 0.60 0.92 0.61 0.94 0.41 0.63 0.30 0.46 0.62 0.95 0.40 0.62 0.23 0.35
2027 0.77 1.19 0.70 1.08 0.67 1.03 0.54 0.83 1.03 1.59 0.62 0.95 0.63 0.97 0.42 0.65 0.31 0.48 0.64 0.99 0.41 0.63 0.24 0.37
2028 0.79 1.22 0.72 1.11 0.69 1.06 0.55 0.85 1.06 1.63 0.63 0.97 0.64 0.99 0.43 0.66 0.32 0.49 0.66 1.02 0.42 0.65 0.24 0.37
2029 0.81 1.25 0.75 1.16 0.71 1.09 0.57 0.88 1.09 1.68 0.65 1.00 0.66 1.02 0.44 0.68 0.33 0.51 0.68 1.05 0.43 0.66 0.25 0.39
2030 0.84 1.29 0.77 1.19 0.73 1.12 0.59 0.91 1.12 1.72 0.67 1.03 0.68 1.05 0.46 0.71 0.34 0.52 0.70 1.08 0.45 0.69 0.26 0.40
2031 0.86 1.32 0.79 1.22 0.75 1.16 0.60 0.92 1.16 1.79 0.69 1.06 0.70 1.08 0.47 0.72 0.35 0.54 0.72 1.11 0.46 0.71 0.27 0.42
2032 0.88 1.36 0.81 1.25 0.77 1.19 0.62 0.95 1.19 1.83 0.71 1.09 0.72 1.11 0.48 0.74 0.36 0.55 0.74 1.14 0.47 0.72 0.27 0.42
2033 0.91 1.40 0.83 1.28 0.80 1.23 0.64 0.99 1.22 1.88 0.73 1.12 0.74 1.14 0.50 0.77 0.37 0.57 0.76 1.17 0.49 0.75 0.28 0.43
2034 0.93 1.43 0.86 1.32 0.82 1.26 0.65 1.00 1.25 1.93 0.75 1.16 0.76 1.17 0.51 0.79 0.38 0.59 0.78 1.20 0.50 0.77 0.29 0.45
2035 0.96 1.48 0.88 1.36 0.84 1.29 0.67 1.03 1.29 1.99 0.77 1.19 0.78 1.20 0.52 0.80 0.39 0.60 0.80 1.23 0.51 0.79 0.30 0.46
2036 0.98 1.51 0.90 1.39 0.86 1.32 0.69 1.06 1.32 2.03 0.79 1.22 0.80 1.23 0.54 0.83 0.40 0.62 0.82 1.26 0.52 0.80 0.30 0.46
2037 1.01 1.56 0.92 1.42 0.88 136 0.70 1.08 135 2.08 0.81 1.25 0.82 1.26 0.55 0.85 0.41 0.63 0.84 1.29 0.54 0.83 0.31 0.48
2038 1.03 1.59 0.95 1.46 0.90 139 0.72 1.11 139 2.14 0.83 1.28 0.85 1.31 0.57 0.88 0.42 0.65 0.86 1.32 0.55 0.85 0.32 0.49
2039 1.06 1.63 0.97 1.49 0.93 1.43 0.74 1.14 1.42 2.19 0.85 131 0.87 1.34 0.58 0.89 0.43 0.66 0.89 1.37 0.57 0.88 0.33 0.51
2040 1.09 1.68 1.00 1.54 0.95 1.46 0.76 1.17 1.46 2.25 0.88 136 0.89 1.37 0.60 0.92 0.44 0.68 0.91 1.40 0.58 0.89 0.34 0.52
2041 1.10 1.69 1.01 1.56 0.96 1.48 0.77 1.19 1.48 2.28 0.89 1.37 0.90 1.39 0.60 0.92 0.44 0.68 0.92 1.42 0.59 0.91 0.34 0.52
2042 1.12 1.72 1.03 1.59 0.98 1.51 0.78 1.20 1.50 2.31 0.90 1.39 0.92 1.42 0.61 0.94 0.45 0.69 0.93 1.43 0.60 0.92 0.35 0.54
2043 1.13 1.74 1.04 1.60 0.99 1.52 0.79 1.22 1.52 2.34 0.91 1.40 0.93 1.43 0.62 0.95 0.46 0.71 0.95 1.46 0.61 0.94 0.35 0.54
2044 1.15 1.77 1.05 1.62 1.00 1.54 0.80 1.23 1.54 2.37 0.92 1.42 0.94 1.45 0.63 0.97 0.46 0.71 0.96 1.48 0.61 0.94 0.36 0.55
2045 1.16 1.79 1.07 1.65 1.02 1.57 0.81 1.25 1.56 2.40 0.94 1.45 0.95 1.46 0.64 0.99 0.47 0.72 0.97 1.49 0.62 0.95 0.36 0.55
2046 1.18 1.82 1.08 1.66 1.03 1.59 0.82 1.26 1.58 2.43 0.95 1.46 0.96 1.48 0.65 1.00 0.47 0.72 0.98 1.51 0.63 0.97 0.37 0.57
2047 1.19 1.83 1.10 1.69 1.04 1.60 0.84 1.29 1.60 2.46 0.96 1.48 0.98 1.51 0.65 1.00 0.48 0.74 1.00 1.54 0.64 0.99 0.37 0.57
2048 1.21 1.86 1.11 1.71 1.06 1.63 0.85 1.31 1.62 2.49 0.97 1.49 0.99 1.52 0.66 1.02 0.49 0.75 1.01 1.56 0.65 1.00 0.38 0.59
2049 1.22 1.88 1.12 1.72 1.07 1.65 0.86 1.32 1.64 2.53 0.99 1.52 1.00 1.54 0.67 1.03 0.49 0.75 1.02 1.57 0.65 1.00 0.38 0.59
2050 1.24 1.91 1.14 1.76 1.08 1.66 0.87 1.34 1.66 2.56 1.00 1.54 1.01 1.56 0.68 1.05 0.50 0.77 1.03 1.59 0.66 1.02 0.38 0.59
2051 1.25 1.93 1.15 1.77 1.09 1.68 0.88 1.36 1.68 2.59 1.01 1.56 1.02 1.57 0.69 1.06 0.50 0.77 1.04 1.60 0.67 1.03 0.39 0.60
2052 1.27 1.96 1.16 1.79 1.11 1.71 0.89 1.37 1.70 2.62 1.02 1.57 1.04 1.60 0.69 1.06 0.51 0.79 1.06 1.63 0.68 1.05 0.39 0.60
2053 1.28 1.97 1.18 1.82 1.12 1.72 0.90 1.39 1.72 2.65 1.03 1.59 1.05 1.62 0.70 1.08 0.52 0.80 1.07 1.65 0.69 1.06 0.40 0.62
2054 1.30 2.00 1.19 1.83 1.13 1.74 0.91 1.40 1.74 2.68 1.04 1.60 1.06 1.63 0.71 1.09 0.52 0.80 1.08 1.66 0.69 1.06 0.40 0.62
2055 1.31 2.02 1.20 1.85 1.15 1.77 0.92 1.42 1.76 2.71 1.06 1.63 1.07 1.65 0.72 1.11 0.53 0.82 1.10 1.69 0.70 1.08 0.41 0.63
Average Annual Percent Change in Toll Rates
2025-2030 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.3 2.9 2.8 3.4 3.3
2030-2035 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.8
2035-2040 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5
2040-2045 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1
2045-2050 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 13 1.4 1.1 1.4
2050-2055 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 13 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 13 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.5 13
2016-2040 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9

55
North Carolina
Bypass
(3.OJ
/
$0.72 ($1.11)
$1.44 ($2.22)
$2.88 ($4.44)
LEGEND
Proposed Complete 540
�- Mainline Toll Zone
�Q.Q) Distance Between
Interchanges (Miles)
Toll Rates
ETC Video
$0.00 ($0.00) - class 1
$0.00 ($0.00) - Class 2
�3�.C�� �r��7,��D - Class 3
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
1152 1386
Holly Springs Bells Lake
Rd. Rd.
2025 ETC
Through Trip Toll Rates
Class 1 Class 3
Per Mile Per Mile
Location Toll Rate Toll Rate
Segment 1 $2.01 $0.24 $8.04 $0.95
Segment 2 $2.06 $0.24 $8.24 $0.95
Segment 3 $2.49 $0.24 $9.96 $0.95
Total $6.56 $0.24 $26.24 $0.95
(2. 8)
�� 540 �2 �� 401
1 Fayetteville
, Rd.
$0.66 ($1.02) / �
$1.32 ($2.03)
$�.F�� �`�!4,�C�A$ $0.63 ($0.97)
$1.26 ($1.94)
$2.52 �$3.&8�
;�";�NORTH CAROLINA
Turnpike Authority
1006
Old Stage
(2.1) Rd.
1
$0.51 ($0.79)
$1.02 ($1.57)
��.���Y q$�.�!�a
(4.1)
I \
$0.97 ($1.49)
$1.94 ($2.99)
$�,�8 ���.���
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
$0.22 ($0.34) �
$0.44 ($0.68) �
$0.88 �$�.��J
1007
Poole Rd.�
$0.39 ($0.60)
$0.78 ($1.20) �
��.56 (fi�.4��1
BYP
64
�--- Knightdale
Bypass
(0.9)
(1.6J 2555
Auburn
Knightdale
� Rd.
z5a2 (2.5J y
Rock Quarry � $0.60 ($0.92)
Ra. �$1.20 ($1.85)
%", @� � � � . i (:'r, �
sus i1 �)
♦ ��0�3 �$0.45)
70 \ $0.58 ($0.89)
$�..�6 �$A.��)
(1.7) $0.40 ($0.62)
z�oo ��$0.80 ($1.23)
WhiteOak w�aGf� �'�''..�����
Rd.
$0.58 ($0.89) (2.5)
$1.16 ($1.79)
50 �2,3? Q�'..>,.,^' ♦�
Benson
Rd. I $0.59 ($0.91)
, $1.18 ($1.82)
��.��:y ��a.�.�)
(2.4) �
James E.
Harrington Fwy.
COMPLETE 540:
2025 ETC AND VIDEO TOLL RATES
FIGURE 4.3

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
4.4.3 Comparison of Through-Trip Toll Rates
A comparison of the assumed through-trip toll rates is provided in Table 4.5 for the Triangle
Expressway and each of the three Complete 540 segments. The total through-trip toll rate on
Complete 540 would be the total of segments 1, 2 and 3. Toll rates are provided for each vehicle
class and method of payment, at 2017, 2025, 2030 and 20401evels.
Table 4.5
Through-Trip Toll Rates By Toll Class
Triangle Complete 540
Calendar Toll Expressway Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3
Year Class (To11540) ETC Video ETC Video ETC Video
2017 (1) Class 1 $ 2.78 $- $ 1.57 $ 2.41 $ 1.60 $ 2.46 $ 1.94
Class 2 $ 5.56 $ 3.14 $ 4.83 $ 3.20 $ 4.93 $ 3.88 $ 5.97
Class 3 $ 11.12 $ 6.28 $ 9.67 $ 6.40 $ 9.85 $ 7.76 $11.96
2025 Class 1 $ 3.59
Class 2 $ 7.18
Class 3 $ 14.36
2030 Class 1 $ 4.17
Class 2 $ 8.34
Class 3 $ 16.68
$ - $ 2.01
$ 4.02 $ 6.19
$ 8.04 $12.39
$ - $ 2.34
$ 4.68 $ 7.21
$ 9.36 $14.41
$ 3.10 $ 2.06
$ 4.12 $ 6.35
$ 8.24 $12.69
$ 3.60 $ 2.38
$ 4.76 $ 7.33
$ 9.52 $14.66
$ 3.17 $ 2.49
$ 4.98 $ 7.67
$ 9.96 $15.34
$ 3.66 $ 2.89
$ 5.78 $ 8.91
$11.56 $17.79
2040 Class 1 $ 5.35 $- $ 3.04 $ 4.68 $ 3.10 $ 4.78 $ 3.76
Class 2 $ 10.70 $ 6.08 $ 9.37 $ 6.20 $ 9.55 $ 7.52 $11.59
Class 3 $ 21.40 $12.16 $18.72 $12.40 $19.09 $15.04 $ 23.16
4.5 Other Inputs
This section describes key inputs to the model that influence the traffic and toll revenue analysis
process.
4.5.1 ETC Market Share
The assumed future market share of ETC and video transactions is an important input into the
traffic demand model. ETC transactions are at less "risk" of non-payment compared to video
transactions, which are more prone to "leakage" or non-payment for a variety of reasons. Table 4.6
presents the systemwide ETC market share targets for the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540.
The 2016 ETC market share target of 58.3% is based on actual experience on the Triangle
Expressway. As seen in Table 2.3, the ETC market share on the Triangle Expressway has not
appreciably increased since 2013, so a minimal increase in ETC market share was assumed for each
future year. As shown in Table 4.6, the resulting ETC market shares from the model output align
closely with the targets.
Smith 4-1z
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and R�
Table 4.6
Systemwide ETC Targeted Market Share and Model Output
Model Model Output
Year Target Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
2016 58.3% (1) 59.5% 59.5% 59.5% 59.5%
2019 58.8% 58.9% 58.9% 58.9% 58.9%
2025 60.0% 61.2% 61.0% 61.2% 61.2%
2030 61.0% 62.2% 62.1% 62.3% 62.3%
2040 63.2% 64.3% 64.2% 64.3% 64.3%
(1) The target is based on actual ETC market share on the Triangle Expressway.
4.5.2 Motorist Value-of-Time and Vehicle Operating Cost I
Assumptions for motorist value of time (VOT) and vehicle operating cost (VOC) used in this study
are presented in Table 4.7.
Table 4.7
Passenger Car Value of Time and
Vehicle Operating Cost Assumptions
(values in U.S. $/minute)
Value of Time Vehicle
Model Peak Off-Peak Operating
Year Period Period Cost
2016 $ 0.279 $ 0.233 $ 0.172
2025 $ 0.364 $ 0.304 $ 0.205
2030 $ 0.422 $ 0.352 $ 0.226
2040 $ 0.567 $ 0.474 $ 0.276
Notes:
Inflation assumed at 2.0 percent peryear.
VOT was inflated by 3.0 percent per year to
account for real income growth.
Estimates for VOT were based on stated preference surveys conducted as part of the 2009
Comprehensive Report. VOT from those surveys was inflated to 2016 and future-year levels at 3.0
percent per year for use in the toll diversion model. Inflation was assumed to average 2.0 percent
per year. The difference between forecast VOT and forecast inflation represents expected real
income growth over the forecast period. VOT was also differentiated for peak and off-peak travel
Smith 4-13
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
periods. VOT at 20161evels was assumed to be $0.279 per minute ($16.74/hr.) during peak travel
periods and $0.233 per minute ($13.98/hr.) during off-peak travel periods. VOT at 20301evels was
assumed to increase to $0.422 per minute ($25.32/hr.) during peak travel periods and $0.352 per
minute ($21.12/hr.) during off-peak travel periods.
Vehicle operating costs (VOC) account for the wear and tear on a vehicle, including maintenance
costs, tire replacement, and oil and fuel. A passenger-car operating cost of $0.172 per mile was
estimated for 2016 based on the following data:
■ The average cost of gasoline in the Lower Atlantic states provided by the Energy
Information Administration.
■ The average cost of tires and maintenance by passenger car vehicle type provided in the
2015 Your Driving Costs report published by AAA.
■ The passenger-car vehicle type distribution for the State of North Carolina published in the
2014 National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Annual Report.
Depreciation and insurance are not included in the operating cost.
By 2030, the average passenger-car vehicle operating cost is estimated to total $0.226 per mile.
Operating costs for future years were developed by inflating 2016 VOC by 2.0 percent per year.
Commercial-vehicle operating costs are much more difficult to calculate due to the variation in
truck sizes, and the types and availability of corporate fleet information. For this study, the vehicle
operating cost assumed for commercial vehicle trips was approximately three times greater than
passenger cars in 2016. This differential increases over time since anticipated fuel efficiency
improvements for passenger vehicles are not assumed for commercial vehicles. By 2030, it was
assumed that commercial vehicle operating costs were approximately four times greater than
passenger cars on a per-mile basis.
4.6 Traffic and Revenue Forecasts by Scenario
The following summarizes the steps in developing traffic and revenue forecasts from the model
output. The model output is first reviewed for reasonableness, and adjustments may be made at
spot locations. Once the model output was validated, the calendar-year average annual weekday
traffic volumes (AAWDT) were converted into annual toll transactions, utilizing an annualization
factor of 308. The annualization factor accounts for the number of non-holiday weekday and
weekend days; the number of holidays; and the amount of traffic that occurs on those days. The
conversion accounts for lower traffic volumes on weekend days and holidays compared to weekday
traffic demand. An annualization factor of 308 was used, which means that the annual transactions
are equivalent to 308 days of weekday tolled traffic.
The annualization factor was based on one complete year of 2016 daily traffic data from all tolled
locations on the Triangle Expressway. During 2016 there were 250 non-holiday weekdays, 104
non-holiday weekend days, and 12 holidays. The average weekend day traffic was 50.4 percent of
the average weekday traffic on the Triangle Expressway.
Smith 4-14
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Class 1 toll transactions for each toll zone and by ETC and video, are multiplied by their
corresponding toll rates to arrive at the annual toll revenue for each tolling zone. Similarly, the
combined Class 2 and 3 toll transactions, are multiplied by an average weighted toll for the two
classes to arrive at the annual toll revenue for each tolling zone.
Annual transactions and toll revenue were dampened to reflect "ramp-up" during the initia136
months of a new tolling zone. With new toll facilities, or extensions to existing facilities, it often
takes time for motorists to learn about the improvements and change their travel patterns,
particularly for motorists who may use the road infrequently or live far from the road. It also
accounts for the time it takes motorists to learn about and feel comfortable with the toll collection
methods, particularly if there aren't existing toll roads in the area. The following ramp-up factors
were applied to the tolled traffic:
• 0.610 ramp-up factor for months 1 through 12;
• 0.814 ramp-up factor for months 13 through 24; and
• 0.945 ramp-up factor for months 25 through 36.
Calendar-year transaction and toll revenue forecasts were divided in half and allocated to the
appropriate fiscal year, which is assumed to run from July 1 of one calendar year to June 30 of the
following calendar year. Traffic volumes for non-modeled years were developed by interpolating
between adjacent modeled-year traffic volumes. Toll transactions for the years beyond the
available model years were developed by assuming an annual increase in traffic based on
decreasing the prior trend line.
For the purposes of this study, revenue leakage due to unreadable or uncollectible ETC or video
transactions, or any transactions that cannot be processed and payment collected, were assumed to
be offset by fee revenue as observed in actual experience on the Triangle Expressway. All toll
revenue estimates in this report are adjusted toll revenue, accounting for decreased toll revenue
associated with non-payment/non-recoverable BBM transactions.
4.6.1 Triangle Expressway — Scenario 1.0
This section presents annual toll transactions and adjusted toll revenue forecasts for Scenario 1
from FY 2017 through FY 2055. Scenario 1 accounts for all existing Triangle Expressway tolling
zones, including the recently opened interchange with Veridea Parkway, and the planned
interchange with Morrisville Parkway, assumed to open in 2019. Scenario 1 represents an update
to the existing Triangle Expressway traffic and toll revenue forecast and will serve as a point of
comparison for the remaining scenarios presented later in this chapter.
Estimates of weekday mainline and ramp traffic volumes in 2019, 2025, 2030 and 2040 are shown
in Figure 4.4. As can be seen in the figure, weekday mainline traffic volumes increase steadily over
time throughout the corridor. The traffic volumes shown in the figure do not include any downward
"ramp-up" adjustment for the Veridea or the Morrisville Parkway interchanges in 2019, which is
incorporated in the annual traffic forecasts. The highest rates of growth are expected in the
southern half of the corridor. AAWDT volumes at the two mainline toll zones located north of NC 55
Bypass and south of US 64 are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 4.0 and 3.9 percent,
respectively, between 2019 and 2030. Further to the north, AAWDT volumes at the two mainline
Smith 4-15
May 30, 2017

N
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Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
204� �4� 65.0
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LEGEND
- Triangle Expressway
- Ramp Toll Zone
- Mainline Toll Zone
�0.� - Mainline Traffic Volume
00.0 - Ramp Traffic Volume
Note: All volumes are in thousands.
2.7
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SCENARIO 1: TRIANGLE EXPRESSWAY
� N O R T H C A R O L I N A . AVERAGE WEEKDAY TRAFFIC FORECASTS - 2019, 2025, 2030, 2040
: � Turnp�ke Author�ty
FIGURE 4.4

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
toll zones located north of Green Level West Road and between the Toll 147 ramps are forecast to
grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 and 1.9 percent, respectively, over the same period.
Table 4.8 presents annual toll transaction forecasts from FY 2017 through FY 2055 for Class 1 and
combined Class 2 and 3 vehicles by method of payment. Total annual transactions are forecast to
increase from 47.9 million in FY 2017, to 73.1 million in FY 2025, 86.3 million in FY 2030, and 106.3
million in FY 2040. This represents an average annual rate of increase of 3.5 percent between 2017
and 2040. Traffic estimates for FY 2017 through FY 2022 contain minor downward adjustments to
reflect ramp-up on the impacts of Veridea and Morrisville Parkway interchanges.
Table 4.8
Scenario 1: Annual Transaction Forecast by Class and Payment Type
Triangle Expressway
(all transactions in thousands)
Fiscal Toll Class 1 Toll Classes 2& 3 All Toll Classes
Year ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC % Trucks
2017 (1) 27,454 18,516 45,970 59.7 963 1,013 1,976 48.7 28,417 19,529 47,946 59.3 4.1
2018 (2) 29,866 20,349 50,214 59.5 1,034 1,083 2,116 48.8 30,900 21,431 52,331 59.0 4.0
2019 (2)(3) 32,186 22,017 54,203 59.4 1,071 1,113 2,184 49.0 33,257 23,130 56,387 59.0 3.9
2020 (2) 34,586 23,530 58,116 59.5 1,115 1,143 2,259 49.4 35,701 24,674 60,375 59.1 3.7
2021 (2) 36,478 24,439 60,917 59.9 1,160 1,166 2,326 49.9 37,637 25,605 63,243 59.5 3.7
2022 38,199 25,190 63,389 60.3 1,202 1,188 2,390 50.3 39,402 26,377 65,779 59.9 3.6
2023 39,840 25,858 65,698 60.6 1,246 1,209 2,455 50.7 41,086 27,067 68,153 60.3 3.6
2024 41,496 26,514 68,010 61.0 1,291 1,232 2,522 51.2 42,787 27,745 70,533 60.7 3.6
2025 43,247 27,210 70,457 61.4 1,339 1,257 2,597 51.6 44,586 28,468 73,054 61.0 3.6
2026 44,966 27,968 72,934 61.7 1,383 1,280 2,663 51.9 46,349 29,248 75,597 61.3 3.5
2027 46,639 28,777 75,416 61.8 1,419 1,299 2,717 52.2 48,057 30,076 78,133 61.5 3.5
2028 48,376 29,611 77,988 62.0 1,456 1,317 2,774 52.5 49,833 30,929 80,761 61.7 3.4
2029 50,182 30,472 80,654 62.2 1,495 1,337 2,832 52.8 51,677 31,808 83,486 61.9 3.4
2030 52,058 31,359 83,417 62.4 1,535 1,358 2,893 53.1 53,594 32,716 86,310 62.1 3.4
2031 53,647 32,041 85,687 62.6 1,571 1,375 2,946 53.3 55,218 33,415 88,633 62.3 3.3
2032 54,925 32,507 87,433 62.8 1,603 1,388 2,991 53.6 56,528 33,895 90,424 62.5 3.3
2033 56,235 32,982 89,217 63.0 1,636 1,401 3,036 53.9 57,871 34,383 92,254 62.7 3.3
2034 57,577 33,465 91,041 63.2 1,669 1,414 3,083 54.1 59,246 34,879 94,124 62.9 3.3
2035 58,950 33,955 92,905 63.5 1,703 1,428 3,131 54.4 60,653 35,383 96,036 63.2 3.3
2036 60,356 34,453 94,810 63.7 1,739 1,442 3,180 54.7 62,095 35,895 97,990 63.4 3.2
2037 61,796 34,960 96,757 63.9 1,775 1,456 3,231 54.9 63,571 36,417 99,988 63.6 3.2
2038 63,271 35,475 98,746 64.1 1,812 1,472 3,283 55.2 65,082 36,947 102,029 63.8 3.2
2039 64,780 35,999 100,779 64.3 1,850 1,487 3,337 55.4 66,630 37,486 104,116 64.0 3.2
2040 (4) 66,327 36,531 102,859 64.5 1,891 1,501 3,392 55.7 68,218 38,033 106,251 64.2 3.2
2041 67,540 37,051 104,591 64.6 1,923 1,515 3,438 55.9 69,463 38,566 108,029 64.3 3.2
2042 68,404 37,555 105,960 64.6 1,944 1,529 3,473 56.0 70,348 39,084 109,433 64.3 3.2
2043 69,280 38,067 107,346 64.5 1,966 1,543 3,509 56.0 71,246 39,610 110,856 64.3 3.2
2044 70,167 38,585 108,751 64.5 1,988 1,557 3,545 56.1 72,155 40,142 112,297 64.3 3.2
2045 71,065 39,109 110,174 64.5 2,010 1,572 3,582 56.1 73,076 40,681 113,757 64.2 3.1
2046 71,941 39,619 111,560 64.5 2,032 1,586 3,618 56.2 73,973 41,205 115,178 64.2 3.1
2047 72,792 40,116 112,908 64.5 2,053 1,599 3,653 56.2 74,845 41,715 116,560 64.2 3.1
2048 73,653 40,618 114,271 64.5 2,075 1,613 3,688 56.3 75,728 42,231 117,959 64.2 3.1
2049 74,525 41,126 115,651 64.4 2,096 1,627 3,724 56.3 76,622 42,753 119,375 64.2 3.1
2050 75,408 41,639 117,047 64.4 2,118 1,641 3,760 56.3 77,526 43,281 120,807 64.2 3.1
2051 76,264 42,138 118,401 64.4 2,140 1,655 3,795 56.4 78,403 43,793 122,196 64.2 3.1
2052 77,092 42,620 119,712 64.4 2,160 1,668 3,829 56.4 79,252 44,288 123,540 64.2 3.1
2053 77,929 43,107 121,036 64.4 2,181 1,682 3,863 56.5 80,111 44,788 124,899 64.1 3.1
2054 78,776 43,599 122,375 64.4 2,202 1,695 3,897 56.5 80,978 45,294 126,273 64.1 3.1
2055 79,632 44,097 123,729 64.4 2,223 1,709 3,932 56.5 81,856 45,806 127,662 64.1 3.1
(1) The Veridea Parkway Interchange is assumed to open January 1, 2017.
(2) Ramp up is applied to the first three years of transaction and revenue impacts associated with new toll zones.
(3) The Morrisville Parkway Interchange is assumed to open January 1, 2019.
(4) Calendar year 2040 represents the last model year.
Smith 4-1�
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Annual adjusted toll revenue estimates from FY 2019 through FY 2058 for Scenario 1 are provided
in Table 4.9. Toll revenue estimates are provided for Class 1 and combined Class 2 and 3 vehicles,
and by method of payment. Total toll revenue estimates are expected to increase from $44.3 million
in FY 2017, to $81.0 million in FY 2025, $108.6 million in FY 2030, and $171.7 million in FY 2040.
This represents an average annual rate of increase of 6.1 percent between 2017 and 2040,
reflecting the combined impact traffic growth and annual toll increases.
Table 4.9
Scenario 1: Annual Adjusted Toll Revenue Forecast by Class and Payment Type
Triangle Expressway
(all revenue in thousands of $)
Fiscal Toll Class 1 Toll Classes 2& 3 All Toll Classes
Year ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC % Trucks
2017 (1) $18,782 $19,652 $ 38,434 48.9 $ 2,252 $ 3,658 $ 5,911 38.1 $ 21,034 $ 23,310 $44,344 47.4 13.3
2018 (2) 20,868 22,048 42,916 48.6 2,469 4,004 6,473 38.1 23,337 26,052 49,389 47.3 13.1
2019 (2)(3) 23,046 24,424 47,469 48.5 2,629 4,236 6,864 38.3 25,674 28,660 54,334 47.3 12.6
2020 (2) 25,349 26,689 52,038 48.7 2,809 4,469 7,278 38.6 28,157 31,159 59,316 47.5 12.3
2021 (2) 27,484 28,470 55,954 49.1 2,998 4,685 7,683 39.0 30,482 33,155 63,637 47.9 12.1
2022 29,560 30,145 59,706 49.5 3,189 4,896 8,085 39.4 32,749 35,041 67,790 48.3 11.9
2023 31,604 31,765 63,369 49.9 3,379 5,108 8,487 39.8 34,983 36,873 71,856 48.7 11.8
2024 33,842 33,500 67,342 50.3 3,588 5,338 8,927 40.2 37,431 38,838 76,269 49.1 11.7
2025 36,238 35,326 71,565 50.6 3,814 5,585 9,399 40.6 40,053 40,911 80,964 49.5 11.6
2026 38,684 37,289 75,973 50.9 4,034 5,832 9,865 40.9 42,718 43,121 85,839 49.8 11.5
2027 41,308 39,459 80,767 51.1 4,258 6,082 10,340 41.2 45,566 45,541 91,107 50.0 11.3
2028 44,006 41,729 85,735 51.3 4,485 6,344 10,829 41.4 48,491 48,074 96,565 50.2 11.2
2029 46,861 44,130 90,991 51.5 4,722 6,615 11,337 41.6 51,583 50,745 102,329 50.4 11.1
2030 50,001 46,712 96,713 51.7 4,981 6,907 11,888 41.9 54,982 53,620 108,601 50.6 10.9
2031 53,119 49,151 102,269 51.9 5,249 7,202 12,450 42.2 58,367 56,353 114,720 50.9 10.9
2032 56,120 51,423 107,543 52.2 5,522 7,493 13,015 42.4 61,642 58,916 120,558 51.1 10.8
2033 59,202 53,785 112,987 52.4 5,805 7,795 13,600 42.7 65,008 61,580 126,587 51.4 10.7
2034 62,447 56,244 118,691 52.6 6,102 8,107 14,209 42.9 68,549 64,351 132,900 51.6 10.7
2035 65,914 58,830 124,744 52.8 6,416 8,435 14,851 43.2 72,330 67,265 139,596 51.8 10.6
2036 69,503 61,419 130,922 53.1 6,742 8,762 15,504 43.5 76,245 70,181 146,426 52.1 10.6
2037 72,878 63,799 136,677 53.3 7,045 9,058 16,103 43.7 79,923 72,857 152,780 52.3 10.5
2038 76,081 66,016 142,097 53.5 7,330 9,329 16,658 44.0 83,411 75,345 158,755 52.5 10.5
2039 79,482 68,304 147,786 53.8 7,635 9,607 17,242 44.3 87,117 77,911 165,028 52.8 10.4
2040 (4) 83,091 70,738 153,829 54.0 7,965 9,899 17,863 44.6 91,056 80,637 171,692 53.0 10.4
2041 86,138 73,015 159,153 54.1 8,242 10,166 18,408 44.8 94,380 83,182 177,562 53.2 10.4
2042 88,399 74,909 163,308 54.1 8,442 10,382 18,824 44.8 96,841 85,291 182,132 53.2 10.3
2043 90,545 76,653 167,199 54.2 8,629 10,573 19,203 44.9 99,175 87,227 186,401 53.2 10.3
2044 92,733 78,427 171,160 54.2 8,818 10,769 19,588 45.0 101,551 89,196 190,747 53.2 10.3
2045 94,962 80,241 175,203 54.2 9,015 10,967 19,982 45.1 103,977 91,208 195,185 53.3 10.2
2046 97,184 82,032 179,216 54.2 9,214 11,161 20,374 45.2 106,398 93,193 199,591 53.3 10.2
2047 99,400 83,813 183,213 54.3 9,409 11,358 20,766 45.3 108,809 95,170 203,979 53.3 10.2
2048 101,655 85,640 187,294 54.3 9,603 11,557 21,160 45.4 111,258 97,197 208,454 53.4 10.2
2049 103,922 87,483 191,405 54.3 9,801 11,756 21,556 45.5 113,723 99,238 212,961 53.4 10.1
2050 106,257 89,358 195,614 54.3 10,008 11,958 21,967 45.6 116,265 101,316 217,581 53.4 10.1
2051 108,578 91,235 199,813 54.3 10,213 12,163 22,376 45.6 118,791 103,397 222,189 53.5 10.1
2052 110,886 93,096 203,981 54.4 10,412 12,365 22,778 45.7 121,298 105,461 226,759 53.5 10.0
2053 113,259 94,987 208,246 54.4 10,619 12,568 23,187 45.8 123,877 107,555 231,432 53.5 10.0
2054 115,671 96,908 212,579 54.4 10,832 12,776 23,608 45.9 126,503 109,685 236,187 53.6 10.0
2055 118,122 98,860 216,983 54.4 11,045 12,991 24,036 46.0 129,167 111,852 241,019 53.6 10.0
(1) The Veridea Parkway Interchange is assumed to open January 1, 2017.
(2) Ramp up is applied to the first three years of transaction and revenue impacts associated with new toll zones.
(3) The Morrisville Parkway Interchange is assumed to open January 1, 2019.
(4) Calendar year 2040 represents the last model year.
Smith 4-1s
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
4.6.2 Complete 540 — Scenarios 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0
This section presents systemwide annual toll transactions and adjusted toll revenue forecasts for
Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 from FY 2017 through FY 2055. Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 represent the various
phasing options for Complete 540.
Estimates of Complete 540 mainline AAWDT volumes at 20251evels are shown for Scenarios 2 and
3 in Figure 4.5. Estimated Segment 1 mainline volumes, between NC 55 and US 401, range from
18,800 to 19,500 vehicles in 2025 under Scenario 2. Under Scenario 3, average weekday traffic
volumes on Segment 1 range from 21,400 to 26,400 vehicles. Segment 2 mainline AAWDTs range
from a high of 27,000 east of US 401 to a low of 15,100 between Old Stage Road and NC 50 9Benson
Road). Segment 3 is not operational in 2025 under any scenario.
Estimates of Complete 540 mainline AAWDT volumes at 20301evels are shown for Scenarios 2, 3
and 4 in Figure 4.6. Under Scenario 2, estimated Segment 1 mainline volumes range from 24,100 to
25,800 vehicles. Under Scenario 3, average weekday traffic volumes on Segment 1 increase, ranging
from 29,100 to 35,000 vehicles. Segment 1 volumes further increase under Scenario 4, ranging from
33,000 to 38,500 vehicles. Segment 3 positively impacts traffic volumes on Segment 2, increasing
traffic on mainline sections from 2,600 to 5,600 per weekday. Segment 3 AAWDT volumes range
from 26,000 vehicles east of I-40 to 44,700 vehicles south of the Knightdale Bypass.
Estimates of Complete 540 mainline AAWDT volumes at 20401evels are shown for Scenarios 2, 3
and 4 in Figure 4.7. Segment 2 adds 4,900 to 13,500 additional vehicles per weekday per mainline
section on Segment 1. The addition of Segment 3 adds about 4,300 vehicles per weekday to
Segment 1 mainline sections, and from 2,500 to 6,500 vehicles per weekday on Segment 2 mainline
sections.
To put these weekday traffic estimates in context of total demand in the corridor, Figure 4.8
presents 2030 Complete 540 mainline AAWDTs at three locations as a percent of total traffic
traveling across screenlines that include nearby toll-free alternative routes. At the mainline tolling
zone south of US 70 Business, traffic on Complete 540 constitutes 13 percent of average weekday
traffic crossing Screenline 2. Traffic on I-40 comprises 72 percent of average weekday traffic
crossing Screenline 2. On Screenline 3, Complete 540 traffic totals 26 percent of total traffic
traveling east-west across the screenline. On Segment 1, Complete 540 traffic totals 39 percent of
traffic traveling east-west across Screenline 5.
Figure 4.9 presents 2030 weekday traffic impacts at toll locations on the Triangle expressway due
to Complete 540 Scenarios 2, 3 and 4. The greatest impacts can be seen at the southern-most
mainline west of 1VC 55 Bypass with positive impacts of 12,900 under Scenario 2, 16,200 under
Scenario 3, and 15,800 under Scenario 4. These impacts diminish further north with mainline
impacts south of US 64 estimated at 2,900 under Scenario 2, 4,600 under Scenario 3, and 4,200
under Scenario 4. At the To11540 mainline toll location at Toll 147, estimated impacts are 600
vehicles or fewer under Scenarios 2, 3 and 4. Traffic impacts under Scenario 3 are either equal to or
slightly greater than traffic impacts under Scenario 4. This is because the opening of Segment 3
(Scenario 4) draws a small amount of traffic off some segment 2 sections, although it adds some
traffic at the To11540 mainline at Toll 147.
Smith 4-19
May 30, 2017

55
North Carolina
Bypass
18.8/
(21.4)
(3. o)
LEGEND
Proposed Complete 540
�— Mainline Toll Zone
(0.0) Distance Between
Interchanges (Miles)
Average Weekdav Traffic
00.� Scenario 2
�00.0� Scenario 3
Segment 3 Scenario 4
NotOpened
Note: All volumes are in thousands.
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
1152 1386
Holly Springs Bells Lake
Rd. Rd.
(z. sl
� 540 401
\ �� �J Fayetteville
, Rd.
19.5 /
(24.1) 19.3 �' 1J
(26.4) ��
�
(27.0)
;�";�NORTH CAROLINA
Turnpike Authority
1006
Old Stage
Rd.
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
BYP
64
Knightdale
Bypass
(0.9J �
1007
Poole Rd.
(1.6) r
2555
Auburn
Knightdale
Rd.
2542 540
� (z.s�
Rock Quarry �
Rd.
sus (1.z) ♦
70
(1.7) -
z�oo
White Oak
Rd.
. �z.s�
50
(a ?1 Benson
� d
� R ' (2.4�
I 540 ,
(15.1) -I �
�15.4 �ames E.
� Harrington
Fwy.
COMPLETE 540: 2025 AVERAGE WEEKDAY
TRAFFIC BY SCENARIO
FIGURE 4.5

LEGEND
Proposed Complete 540
�— Mainline Toll Zone
(0.0) Distance Between
Interchanges (Miles)
Average Weekdav Traffic
00.� Scenario 2
�00.�� Scenario 3
�0�.�� Scenario 4
Note: All volumes are in thousands.
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
�
(21.3
[24.5]
;�";�NORTH CAROLINA
Turnpike Authority
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
BYP
64
Knightdale
� Bypass
- � -- �
� [44.7]
/� -- �
[36.2]
�2555
Auburn
Knightdale
Rd.
( " �
[32.3]
) -I �
�2�.6� James E.
Harrington
[26.2] FWv.
COMPLETE 540: 2030 AVERAGE WEEKDAY
TRAFFIC BY SCENARIO
FIGURE 4.6

LEGEND
Proposed Complete 540
�— Mainline Toll Zone
(0.0) Distance Between
Interchanges (Miles)
Average Weekdav Traffic
00.� Scenario 2
�00.�� Scenario 3
�0�.�� Scenario 4
Note: All volumes are in thousands.
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
�
(30.8)
[33.6]
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Studv
-I �
/29.9 lames E.
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[36.4] FWv.
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64
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�2555
Auburn
Knightdale
Rd.
� NORTH CAROLINA COMPLETE 540: 2040 AVERAGE WEEKLY TRAFFIC BY SCENARIO
; ,� Turnpike Authority
FIGURE 4.7

Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
N , � 1 �
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Traffic Screenlines � � � � � -� ' �
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; ,
2030 AVERAGE WEEKDAY
� NORTH caRo�iNa SCREENLINE MARKET SHARE
; � Turnpike Authority
FIGURE 4.8

�115et
LEGEND
Triangle Expressway
— Ramp Toll Zone
— Mainline Toll Zone
(0.0J — Distance Between
Interchanges (Miles)
0.0 Scenario 1 Average Weekday Traffic
O.R,� Impact of Scenario 2
�.,;i Impact of Scenario 3
Impact of Scenario 4
Note: All volumes are in thousands.
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
147
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4.6
0.0 (1.8J �l�d�
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n Ra. 540
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Bypass
TRIANGLE EXPRESSWAY: 2030 IMPACTS DUE
� NORTH cARo�_iNA TO COMPLETE 540 AT TOLLED LOCATIONS
; ,� Turnpike Authority
FIGURE 4.9

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Tables 4.10 and 4.11 present annual forecasts for toll transactions and adjusted toll revenue for
Scenario 2. Scenario 3 annual transaction and adjusted toll revenue forecasts can be seen in Tables
Table 4.10
Scenario 2: Annual Transaction Forecast by Class and Payment Type
Triangle Expressway Plus Complete 540 through U.S. 401
(all transactions in thousands)
Fiscal Toll Class 1 Toll Classes 2& 3 All Toll Classes
Year ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC % Trucks
2017 (1) 27,454 18,516 45,970 59.7 963 1,013 1,976 48.7 28,417 19,529 47,946 59.3 4.1
2018 (2) 29,866 20,349 50,214 59.5 1,034 1,083 2,116 48.8 30,900 21,431 52,331 59.0 4.0
2019 (2)(3) 32,186 22,017 54,203 59.4 1,071 1,113 2,184 49.0 33,257 23,130 56,387 59.0 3.9
2020 (2) 34,586 23,530 58,116 59.5 1,115 1,143 2,259 49.4 35,701 24,674 60,375 59.1 3.7
2021 (2) 36,478 24,439 60,917 59.9 1,160 1,166 2,326 49.9 37,637 25,605 63,243 59.5 3.7
2022 38,199 25,190 63,389 60.3 1,202 1,188 2,390 50.3 39,402 26,377 65,779 59.9 3.6
2023 39,840 25,858 65,698 60.6 1,246 1,209 2,455 50.7 41,086 27,067 68,153 60.3 3.6
2024 41,496 26,514 68,010 61.0 1,291 1,232 2,522 51.2 42,787 27,745 70,533 60.7 3.6
2025 (2)(4) 47,022 29,681 76,704 61.3 1,388 1,291 2,679 51.8 48,410 30,972 79,383 61.0 3.4
2026 (2) 54,096 33,898 87,994 61.5 1,500 1,362 2,861 52.4 55,596 35,260 90,856 61.2 3.1
2027 (2) 58,607 36,456 95,063 61.7 1,572 1,404 2,976 52.8 60,179 37,860 98,039 61.4 3.0
2028 62,432 38,520 100,952 61.8 1,635 1,441 3,076 53.2 64,067 39,961 104,028 61.6 3.0
2029 65,536 40,087 105,622 62.0 1,689 1,471 3,160 53.5 67,225 41,557 108,782 61.8 2.9
2030 68,382 41,459 109,840 62.3 1,741 1,498 3,239 53.7 70,122 42,957 113,079 62.0 2.9
2031 70,797 42,544 113,341 62.5 1,787 1,521 3,308 54.0 72,584 44,065 116,649 62.2 2.8
2032 72,745 43,324 116,069 62.7 1,827 1,538 3,366 54.3 74,573 44,862 119,435 62.4 2.8
2033 74,749 44,120 118,870 62.9 1,868 1,556 3,425 54.6 76,618 45,676 122,294 62.7 2.8
2034 76,811 44,933 121,744 63.1 1,911 1,574 3,485 54.8 78,722 46,508 125,230 62.9 2.8
2035 78,932 45,764 124,696 63.3 1,954 1,593 3,548 55.1 80,887 47,357 128,244 63.1 2.8
2036 81,115 46,612 127,726 63.5 1,999 1,613 3,612 55.3 83,114 48,Z24 131,338 63.3 2.8
2037 83,360 47,478 130,838 63.7 2,045 1,633 3,678 55.6 85,404 49,111 134,515 63.5 2.7
2038 85,670 48,363 134,032 63.9 2,092 1,653 3,745 55.9 87,762 50,016 137,777 63.7 2.7
2039 88,046 49,266 137,312 64.1 2,142 1,673 3,815 56.1 90,188 50,939 141,127 63.9 2.7
2040 (5) 90,492 50,188 140,680 64.3 2,192 1,694 3,886 56.4 92,684 51,882 144,566 64.1 Z.7
2041 92,321 50,995 143,316 64.4 2,230 1,713 3,943 56.6 94,552 52,707 147,259 64.2 Z.7
2042 93,508 51,681 145,189 64.4 2,256 1,729 3,985 56.6 95,764 53,410 149,174 64.2 2.7
2043 94,710 52,375 147,085 64.4 2,282 1,746 4,028 56.7 96,992 54,121 151,113 64.2 2.7
2044 95,928 53,078 149,006 64.4 2,308 1,763 4,071 56.7 98,236 54,841 153,077 64.2 2.7
2045 97,162 53,791 150,953 64.4 2,335 1,780 4,115 56.7 99,497 55,571 155,067 64.2 2.7
2046 98,364 54,484 152,848 64.4 2,361 1,797 4,157 56.8 100,724 56,281 157,005 64.2 2.6
2047 99,532 55,159 154,691 64.3 2,386 1,813 4,199 56.8 101,918 56,971 158,889 64.1 2.6
2048 100,715 55,841 156,555 64.3 2,411 1,829 4,241 56.9 103,126 57,670 160,796 64.1 2.6
2049 101,911 56,531 158,442 64.3 2,437 1,846 4,283 56.9 104,349 58,377 162,726 64.1 2.6
2050 103,123 57,229 160,352 64.3 2,463 1,863 4,326 56.9 105,586 59,092 164,678 64.1 2.6
2051 104,297 57,907 162,204 64.3 2,489 1,879 4,368 57.0 106,786 59,786 166,572 64.1 2.6
2052 105,434 58,562 163,996 64.3 2,513 1,895 4,408 57.0 107,947 60,457 168,404 64.1 2.6
2053 106,583 59,224 165,807 64.3 2,538 1,911 4,449 57.0 109,121 61,135 170,256 64.1 2.6
2054 107,745 59,894 167,639 64.3 2,563 1,927 4,490 57.1 110,309 61,821 172,129 64.1 2.6
2055 108,920 60,570 169,491 64.3 2,588 1,943 4,532 57.1 111,509 62,514 174,023 64.1 2.6
(1) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Veridea Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2017.
(2) Ramp up is applied to the first three years of transaction and revenue impacts associated with new toll zones.
(3) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Morrisville Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2019.
(4) Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to US 401 (Segment 1) is assumed to open January 1, 2025.
(5) Calendar year 2040 represents the last model year.
Smith 4-25
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Table 4.11
Scenario 2: Annual Adjusted Toll Revenue Forecast by Class and Payment Type
Triangle Expressway Plus Complete 540 through U.S. 401
(all revenue in thousands of $)
Fiscal Toll Class 1 Toll Classes 2& 3 All Toll Classes
Year ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC % Trucks
2017 (1) $ 18,782 $ 19,652 $ 38,434 48.9 $ 2,252 $ 3,658 $ 5,911 38.1 $ 21,034 $ 23,310 $ 44,344 47.4 13.3
2018 (2) 20,868 22,048 42,916 48.6 2,469 4,004 6,473 38.1 23,337 26,052 49,389 47.3 13.1
2019 (2)(3) 23,046 24,424 47,469 48.5 2,629 4,236 6,864 38.3 25,674 28,660 54,334 47.3 12.6
2020 (2) 25,349 26,689 52,038 48.7 2,809 4,469 7,278 38.6 28,157 31,159 59,316 47.5 12.3
2021 (2) 27,484 28,470 55,954 49.1 2,998 4,685 7,683 39.0 30,482 33,155 63,637 47.9 12.1
2022 29,560 30,145 59,706 49.5 3,189 4,896 8,085 39.4 32,749 35,041 67,790 48.3 11.9
2023 31,604 31,765 63,369 49.9 3,379 5,108 8,487 39.8 34,983 36,873 71,856 48.7 11.8
2024 33,842 33,500 67,342 50.3 3,588 5,338 8,927 40.2 37,431 38,838 76,269 49.1 11.7
2025 (2)�4) 38,813 37,930 76,744 50.6 3,923 5,703 9,626 40.8 42,737 43,633 86,370 49.5 11.1
2026 (2) 45,040 43,666 88,706 50.8 4,301 6,121 10,422 41.3 49,341 49,786 99,127 49.8 10.5
2027 (2) 49,899 47,969 97,867 51.0 4,617 6,470 11,087 41.6 54,516 54,438 108,954 50.0 10.2
2028 54,376 51,880 106,255 51.2 4,916 6,809 11,725 41.9 59,291 58,689 117,980 50.3 9.9
2029 58,526 55,415 113,941 51.4 5,203 7,135 12,338 42.2 63,729 62,549 126,278 50.5 9.8
2030 62,800 58,937 121,737 51.6 5,509 7,470 12,979 42.4 68,309 66,407 134,716 50.7 9.6
2031 66,957 62,236 129,194 51.8 5,821 7,805 13,626 42.7 72,779 70,041 142,820 51.0 9.5
2032 70,885 65,288 136,174 52.1 6,135 8,133 14,268 43.0 77,020 73,422 150,442 51.2 9.5
2033 74,999 68,480 143,479 52.3 6,463 8,477 14,940 43.3 81,462 76,956 158,419 51.4 9.4
2034 79,360 71,806 151,166 52.5 6,809 8,836 15,645 43.5 86,169 80,642 166,810 51.7 9.4
2035 83,979 75,318 159,296 52.7 7,175 9,212 16,387 43.8 91,153 84,530 175,683 51.9 9.3
2036 88,751 78,845 167,596 53.0 7,550 9,588 17,139 44.1 96,302 88,433 184,735 52.1 9.3
2037 93,351 82,185 175,536 53.2 7,906 9,934 17,840 44.3 101,257 92,118 193,376 52.4 9.2
2038 97,856 85,412 183,268 53.4 8,249 10,253 18,502 44.6 106,105 95,666 201,770 52.6 9.2
2039 102,658 88,737 191,396 53.6 8,618 10,585 19,203 44.9 111,276 99,323 210,599 52.8 9.1
2040 (5) 107,774 92,310 200,083 53.9 9,010 10,938 19,948 45.2 116,784 103,247 220,032 53.1 9.1
2041 111,897 95,462 207,359 54.0 9,329 11,251 20,580 45.3 121,226 106,713 227,939 53.2 9.0
2042 114,870 97,969 212,840 54.0 9,559 11,498 21,057 45.4 124,430 109,467 233,897 53.2 9.0
2043 117,737 100,310 218,046 54.0 9,778 11,720 21,497 45.5 127,515 112,029 239,544 53.2 9.0
2044 120,593 102,655 223,248 54.0 9,996 11,943 21,939 45.6 130,589 114,598 245,187 53.3 8.9
2045 123,571 105,122 228,693 54.0 10,225 12,172 22,397 45.7 133,796 117,294 251,090 53.3 8.9
2046 126,542 107,549 234,091 54.1 10,456 12,396 22,852 45.8 136,998 119,946 256,943 53.3 8.9
2047 129,474 109,909 239,383 54.1 10,681 12,624 23,305 45.8 140,155 122,532 262,688 53.4 8.9
2048 132,490 112,360 244,850 54.1 10,909 12,855 23,764 45.9 143,399 125,215 268,614 53.4 8.8
2049 135,501 114,840 250,341 54.1 11,139 13,085 24,224 46.0 146,640 127,925 274,565 53.4 8.8
2050 138,593 117,370 255,963 54.1 11,379 13,318 24,697 46.1 149,972 130,689 280,660 53.4 8.8
2051 141,668 119,895 261,563 54.2 11,616 13,553 25,169 46.2 153,284 133,448 286,732 53.5 8.8
2052 144,720 122,395 267,115 54.2 11,847 13,787 25,634 46.2 156,567 136,182 292,749 53.5 8.8
2053 147,882 124,937 272,819 54.2 12,087 14,022 26,109 46.3 159,968 138,959 298,928 53.5 8.7
2054 151,062 127,479 278,541 54.2 12,332 14,263 26,594 46.4 163,394 141,742 305,136 53.5 8.7
2055 154,288 130,102 284,391 54.3 12,578 14,510 27,088 46.4 166,866 144,613 311,479 53.6 8.7
(1) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Veridea Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2017.
(2) Ramp up is applied to the first three years of transaction and revenue impacts associated with new toll zones.
(3) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Morrisville Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2019.
(4) Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to US 401 (Segment 1) is assumed to open January 1, 2025.
(5) Calendar year 2040 represents the last model year.
Smith 4-26
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
4.12 and 4.13. Scenario 4 annual transaction and adjusted toll revenue forecasts are shown in
Tables 4.14 and 4.15. Further discussion of growth rates and the impacts of various improvements
within each of these scenarios is presented in Section 4.7.
Table 4.12
Scenario 3: Annual Transaction Forecast by Class and Payment Type
Triangle Expressway Plus Complete 540 through Interstate 40
(all transactions in thousands)
Fiscal Toll Class 1 Toll Classes 2& 3 All Toll Classes
Year ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC % Trucks
2017 (1) 27,454 18,516 45,970 59.7 963 1,013 1,976 48.7 28,417 19,529 47,946 59.3 4.1
2018 (2) 29,866 20,349 50,214 59.5 1,034 1,083 2,116 48.8 30,900 21,431 52,331 59.0 4.0
2019 (2)(3) 32,186 22,017 54,203 59.4 1,071 1,113 2,184 49.0 33,257 23,130 56,387 59.0 3.9
2020 (2) 34,586 23,530 58,116 59.5 1,115 1,143 2,259 49.4 35,701 24,674 60,375 59.1 3.7
2021 (2) 36,478 24,439 60,917 59.9 1,160 1,166 2,326 49.9 37,637 25,605 63,243 59.5 3.7
2022 38,199 25,190 63,389 60.3 1,202 1,188 2,390 50.3 39,402 26,377 65,779 59.9 3.6
2023 39,840 25,858 65,698 60.6 1,246 1,209 2,455 50.7 41,086 27,067 68,153 60.3 3.6
2024 41,496 26,514 68,010 61.0 1,291 1,232 2,522 51.2 42,787 27,745 70,533 60.7 3.6
2025 (2)(4) 51,394 32,388 83,782 61.3 1,480 1,351 2,831 52.3 52,874 33,738 86,613 61.0 3.3
2026 (2) 64,723 40,437 105,159 61.5 1,721 1,504 3,225 53.4 66,444 41,941 108,385 61.3 3.0
2027 (2) 72,654 45,013 117,668 61.7 1,860 1,589 3,448 53.9 74,514 46,602 121,116 61.5 2.8
2028 79,069 48,554 127,623 62.0 1,971 1,654 3,625 54.4 81,040 50,208 131,248 61.7 2.8
2029 83,865 51,029 134,893 62.2 2,055 1,700 3,755 54.7 85,919 52,729 138,648 62.0 2.7
2030 88,038 53,072 141,110 62.4 2,126 1,739 3,865 55.0 90,164 54,811 144,975 62.2 2.7
2031 91,417 54,621 146,038 62.6 2,188 1,770 3,957 55.3 93,605 56,390 149,995 62.4 2.6
2032 93,928 55,640 149,568 62.8 2,238 1,793 4,031 55.5 96,166 57,433 153,599 62.6 2.6
2033 96,510 56,681 153,191 63.0 2,291 1,816 4,107 55.8 98,801 58,497 157,298 62.8 2.6
2034 99,168 57,745 156,913 63.2 2,344 1,840 4,184 56.0 101,512 59,585 161,097 63.0 2.6
2035 101,902 58,832 160,734 63.4 2,399 1,865 4,264 56.3 104,301 60,697 164,998 63.2 2.6
2036 104,716 59,943 164,659 63.6 2,455 1,890 4,345 56.5 107,171 61,832 169,004 63.4 2.6
2037 107,612 61,077 168,689 63.8 2,514 1,915 4,429 56.8 110,126 62,992 173,118 63.6 2.6
2038 110,593 62,235 172,828 64.0 2,574 1,941 4,515 57.0 113,167 64,176 177,344 63.8 2.5
2039 113,661 63,418 177,079 64.2 2,636 1,968 4,604 57.2 116,297 65,386 181,683 64.0 2.5
2040 (5) 116,818 64,627 181,445 64.4 2,699 1,997 4,696 57.5 119,517 66,624 186,141 64.2 2.5
2041 119,182 65,673 184,855 64.5 2,747 2,022 4,769 57.6 121,929 67,695 189,624 64.3 2.5
2042 120,717 66,550 187,267 64.5 2,780 2,042 4,822 57.6 123,497 68,592 192,089 64.3 2.5
2043 122,273 67,437 189,711 64.5 2,813 2,063 4,876 57.7 125,086 69,500 194,586 64.3 2.5
2044 123,850 68,337 192,186 64.4 2,846 2,084 4,930 57.7 126,696 70,421 197,116 64.3 2.5
2045 125,447 69,247 194,694 64.4 2,879 2,105 4,985 57.8 128,326 71,352 199,679 64.3 2.5
2046 127,002 70,134 197,136 64.4 2,912 2,126 5,038 57.8 129,914 72,260 202,174 64.3 2.5
2047 128,514 70,996 199,510 64.4 2,944 2,146 5,090 57.8 131,458 73,142 204,600 64.3 2.5
2048 130,045 71,868 201,912 64.4 2,976 2,167 5,143 57.9 133,021 74,034 207,055 64.2 2.5
2049 131,594 72,750 204,344 64.4 3,009 2,187 5,196 57.9 134,602 74,938 209,540 64.2 2.5
2050 133,161 73,643 206,804 64.4 3,042 2,208 5,250 57.9 136,203 75,852 212,054 64.2 2.5
2051 134,681 74,509 209,190 64.4 3,074 2,229 5,302 58.0 137,755 76,738 214,492 64.2 2.5
2052 136,152 75,347 211,499 64.4 3,104 2,248 5,353 58.0 139,257 77,595 216,852 64.2 2.5
2053 137,640 76,193 213,833 64.4 3,136 2,268 5,404 58.0 140,775 78,462 219,237 64.2 2.5
2054 139,143 77,050 216,193 64.4 3,167 2,288 5,456 58.1 142,311 79,338 221,649 64.2 2.5
2055 140,664 77,915 218,579 64.4 3,199 2,309 5,508 58.1 143,863 80,224 224,087 64.2 2.5
(1) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Veridea Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2017.
(2) Ramp up is applied to the first three years of transaction and revenue impacts associated with new toll zones.
(3) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Morrisville Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2019.
(4) Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to I-40 (Segments 1& 2) is assumed to open January 1, 2025.
(5) Calendar year 2040 represents the last model year.
Smith 4-2�
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Table 4.13
Scenario 3: Annual Adjusted Toll Revenue Forecast by Class and Payment Type
Triangle Expressway Plus Complete 540 through Interstate 40
(all revenue in thousands of $)
Fiscal Toll Class l Toll Classes 2& 3 All Toll Classes
Year ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC % Trucks
2017 (1) $ 18,782 $ 19,652 $ 38,434 48.9 $ 2,252 $ 3,658 $ 5,911 38.1 $ 21,034 $ 23,310 $ 44,344 47.4 13.3
2018 (2) 20,868 22,048 42,916 48.6 2,469 4,004 6,473 38.1 23,337 26,052 49,389 47.3 13.1
2019 (2)(3) 23,046 24,424 47,469 48.5 2,629 4,236 6,864 38.3 25,674 28,660 54,334 47.3 12.6
2020 (2) 25,349 26,689 52,038 48.7 2,809 4,469 7,278 38.6 28,157 31,159 59,316 47.5 12.3
2021 (2) 27,484 28,470 55,954 49.1 2,998 4,685 7,683 39.0 30,482 33,155 63,637 47.9 12.1
2022 29,560 30,145 59,706 49.5 3,189 4,896 8,085 39.4 32,749 35,041 67,790 48.3 11.9
2023 31,604 31,765 63,369 49.9 3,379 5,108 8,487 39.8 34,983 36,873 71,856 48.7 11.8
2024 33,842 33,500 67,342 50.3 3,588 5,338 8,927 40.2 37,431 38,838 76,269 49.1 11.7
2025 (2)(4) 41,718 40,697 82,415 50.6 4,140 5,918 10,058 41.2 45,858 46,615 92,473 49.6 10.9
2026 (2) 52,221 50,459 102,680 50.9 4,832 6,645 11,476 42.1 57,053 57,104 114,156 50.0 10.1
2027 (2) 59,681 57,127 116,808 51.1 5,328 7,165 12,494 42.6 65,009 64,292 129,301 50.3 9.7
2028 66,279 62,922 129,201 51.3 5,770 7,635 13,405 43.0 72,049 70,557 142,606 50.5 9.4
2029 72,008 67,805 139,813 51.5 6,157 8,048 14,205 43.3 78,165 75,853 154,018 50.8 9.2
2030 77,719 72,497 150,216 51.7 6,544 8,457 15,001 43.6 84,263 80,954 165,217 51.0 9.1
2031 83,073 76,748 159,821 52.0 6,928 8,856 15,784 43.9 90,001 85,604 175,605 51.3 9.0
2032 87,929 80,516 168,445 52.2 7,303 9,239 16,542 44.1 95,232 89,755 184,987 51.5 8.9
2033 93,042 84,489 177,531 52.4 7,698 9,640 17,338 44.4 100,740 94,129 194,869 51.7 8.9
2034 98,416 88,609 187,025 52.6 8,110 10,057 18,168 44.6 106,526 98,666 205,192 51.9 8.9
2035 104,108 92,935 197,043 52.8 8,546 10,494 19,041 44.9 112,654 103,430 216,084 52.1 8.8
2036 110,030 97,314 207,343 53.1 8,998 10,933 19,932 45.1 119,028 108,247 227,275 52.4 8.8
2037 115,757 101,494 217,251 53.3 9,429 11,337 20,766 45.4 125,186 112,831 238,017 52.6 8.7
2038 121,468 105,621 227,088 53.5 9,852 11,721 21,573 45.7 131,320 117,342 248,661 52.8 8.7
2039 127,585 109,897 237,483 53.7 10,304 12,126 22,430 45.9 137,889 122,023 259,912 53.1 8.6
2040 (5) 134,109 114,499 248,608 53.9 10,785 12,560 23,345 46.2 144,894 127,059 271,953 53.3 8.6
2041 139,325 118,497 257,822 54.0 11,174 12,940 24,114 46.3 150,500 131,437 281,937 53.4 8.6
2042 143,025 121,609 264,634 54.0 11,454 13,230 24,684 46.4 154,478 134,839 289,318 53.4 8.5
2043 146,628 124,552 271,181 54.1 11,722 13,497 25,219 46.5 158,350 138,050 296,400 53.4 8.5
2044 150,215 127,501 277,716 54.1 11,988 13,766 25,754 46.5 162,203 141,267 303,470 53.4 8.5
2045 153,990 130,642 284,631 54.1 12,271 14,042 26,313 46.6 166,260 144,684 310,944 53.5 8.5
2046 157,757 133,719 291,477 54.1 12,555 14,315 26,870 46.7 170,312 148,034 318,347 53.5 8.4
2047 161,487 136,719 298,206 54.2 12,833 14,590 27,424 46.8 174,320 151,310 325,629 53.5 8.4
2048 165,328 139,860 305,188 54.2 13,115 14,871 27,986 46.9 178,443 154,731 333,174 53.6 8.4
2049 169,158 143,028 312,186 54.2 13,399 15,150 28,549 46.9 182,557 158,178 340,735 53.6 8.4
2050 173,076 146,270 319,346 54.2 13,695 15,434 29,129 47.0 186,770 161,705 348,475 53.6 8.4
2051 176,941 149,495 326,436 54.2 13,985 15,717 29,702 47.1 190,926 165,212 356,138 53.6 8.3
2052 180,786 152,654 333,440 54.2 14,268 15,998 30,266 47.1 195,054 168,652 363,706 53.6 8.3
2053 184,763 155,864 340,627 54.2 14,563 16,283 30,845 47.2 199,326 172,147 371,473 53.7 8.3
2054 188,756 159,072 347,829 54.3 14,862 16,573 31,435 47.3 203,618 175,646 379,264 53.7 8.3
2055 192,850 162,407 355,257 54.3 15,165 16,874 32,039 47.3 208,016 179,281 387,297 53.7 8.3
(1) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Veridea Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2017.
(2) Ramp up is applied to the first three years of transaction and revenue impacts associated with new toll zones.
(3) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Morrisville Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2019.
(4) Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to I-40 (Segments 1& 2) is assumed to open January 1, 2025.
(5) Calendar year 2040 represents the last model year.
Smith 4-28
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Table 4.14
Scenario 4: Annual Transaction Forecast by Class and Payment Type
Triangle Expressway Plus Complete 540 through U.S. 264
(all transactions in thousands)
Fiscal Toll Class 1 Toll Classes 2& 3 All Toll Classes
Year ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC % Trucks
2017 (1) 27,454 18,516 45,970 59.7 963 1,013 1,976 48.7 28,417 19,529 47,946 59.3 4.1
2018 (2) 29,866 20,349 50,214 59.5 1,034 1,083 2,116 48.8 30,900 21,431 52,331 59.0 4.0
2019 (2)(3) 32,186 22,017 54,203 59.4 1,071 1,113 2,184 49.0 33,257 23,130 56,387 59.0 3.9
2020 (2) 34,586 23,530 58,116 59.5 1,115 1,143 2,259 49.4 35,701 24,674 60,375 59.1 3.7
2021 (2) 36,478 24,439 60,917 59.9 1,160 1,166 2,326 49.9 37,637 25,605 63,243 59.5 3.7
2022 38,199 25,190 63,389 60.3 1,202 1,188 2,390 50.3 39,402 26,377 65,779 59.9 3.6
2023 39,840 25,858 65,698 60.6 1,246 1,209 2,455 50.7 41,086 27,067 68,153 60.3 3.6
2024 41,496 26,514 68,010 61.0 1,291 1,232 2,522 51.2 42,787 27,745 70,533 60.7 3.6
2025 (2)�4) 51,394 32,388 83,782 61.3 1,480 1,351 2,831 52.3 52,874 33,738 86,613 61.0 3.3
2026 (2) 64,723 40,437 105,159 61.5 1,721 1,504 3,225 53.4 66,444 41,941 108,385 61.3 3.0
2027 (2) 72,654 45,013 117,668 61.7 1,860 1,589 3,448 53.9 74,514 46,602 121,116 61.5 2.8
2028 79,069 48,554 127,623 62.0 1,971 1,654 3,625 54.4 81,040 50,208 131,248 61.7 2.8
2029 83,865 51,029 134,893 62.2 2,055 1,700 3,755 54.7 85,919 52,729 138,648 62.0 2.7
2030 (2)�5) 100,327 60,443 160,769 62.4 2,498 1,985 4,484 55.7 102,825 62,428 165,253 62.2 2.7
2031 (2) 120,554 72,010 192,565 62.6 3,068 2,350 5,418 56.6 123,622 74,361 197,983 62.4 2.7
2032 (2) 130,894 77,522 208,416 62.8 3,352 2,521 5,872 57.1 134,246 80,042 214,288 62.6 2.7
2033 138,514 81,338 219,852 63.0 3,551 2,633 6,185 57.4 142,066 83,971 226,037 62.9 2.7
2034 143,549 83,578 227,127 63.2 3,672 2,694 6,366 57.7 147,221 86,272 233,493 63.1 2.7
2035 147,522 85,159 232,681 63.4 3,760 2,733 6,492 57.9 151,282 87,891 239,173 63.3 2.7
2036 151,608 86,771 238,379 63.6 3,850 2,772 6,622 58.1 155,457 89,544 245,001 63.5 2.7
2037 155,810 88,416 244,226 63.8 3,943 2,812 6,755 58.4 159,752 91,229 250,981 63.7 2.7
2038 160,131 90,095 250,227 64.0 4,038 2,853 6,891 58.6 164,169 92,948 257,117 63.8 2.7
2039 164,576 91,809 256,385 64.2 4,135 2,894 7,029 58.8 168,711 94,703 263,413 64.0 2.7
2040 (6) 169,144 93,556 262,700 64.4 4,235 2,938 7,174 59.0 173,380 96,494 269,873 64.2 2.7
2041 172,567 95,062 267,630 64.5 4,313 2,978 7,291 59.2 176,880 98,040 274,920 64.3 2.7
2042 174,797 96,321 271,118 64.5 4,365 3,011 7,376 59.2 179,163 99,332 278,494 643 2.6
2043 177,056 97,595 274,652 64.5 4,419 3,044 7,463 59.2 181,475 100,640 282,115 64.3 2.6
2044 179,345 98,886 278,231 64.5 4,473 3,078 7,551 59.2 183,818 101,964 285,782 64.3 2.6
2045 181,664 100,194 281,857 64.5 4,528 3,113 7,640 59.3 186,191 103,306 289,497 64.3 2.6
2046 183,921 101,467 285,388 64.4 4,581 3,146 7,727 59.3 188,502 104,613 293,115 64.3 2.6
2047 186,117 102,705 288,821 64.4 4,633 3,178 7,811 59.3 190,749 105,883 296,633 64.3 2.6
2048 188,338 103,957 292,296 64.4 4,685 3,211 7,897 59.3 193,024 107,169 300,192 64.3 2.6
2049 190,587 105,225 295,812 64.4 4,738 3,245 7,983 59.4 195,325 108,469 303,795 64.3 2.6
2050 192,862 106,507 299,370 64.4 4,792 3,278 8,070 59.4 197,655 109,786 307,440 64.3 2.6
2051 195,069 107,751 302,820 64.4 4,844 3,311 8,155 59.4 199,913 111,062 310,975 64.3 2.6
2052 197,204 108,954 306,158 64.4 4,895 3,342 8,237 59.4 202,099 112,296 314,395 64.3 2.6
2053 199,363 110,170 309,534 64.4 4,946 3,374 8,320 59.4 204,309 113,545 317,854 64.3 2.6
2054 201,546 111,400 312,946 64.4 4,997 3,407 8,404 59.5 206,543 114,807 321,350 64.3 2.6
2055 203,753 112,643 316,396 64.4 5,049 3,439 8,489 59.5 208,802 116,083 324,885 64.3 2.6
(1) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Veridea Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2017.
(2) Ramp up is applied to the first three years of transaction and revenue impacts associated with new toll zones.
(3) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Morrisville Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2019.
(4) Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to I-40 (Segments 1& 2) is assumed to open January 1, 2025.
(5) Complete 540 from I-40 to Knightdale Bypass (Segment 3) is assumed to open January 1, 2030.
(6) Calendar year 2040 represents the last model year.
Smith 4-29
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Table 4.15
Scenario 4: Annual Adjusted Toll Revenue Forecast by Class and Payment Type
Triangle Expressway Plus Complete 540 through U.S. 264
(all revenue in thousands of $)
Fiscal Toll Class 1 Toll Classes 2& 3 All Toll Classes
Year ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC ETC Video Total % ETC % Trucks
2017 (1) $ 18,782 $ 19,652 $ 38,434 48.9 $ 2,252 $ 3,658 $ 5,911 38.1 $ 21,034 $ 23,310 $ 44,344 47.4 13.3
2018 (2) 20,868 22,048 42,916 48.6 2,469 4,004 6,473 38.1 23,337 26,052 49,389 47.3 13.1
2019 (2)(3) 23,046 24,424 47,469 48.5 2,629 4,236 6,864 38.3 25,674 28,660 54,334 47.3 12.6
2020 (2) 25,349 26,689 52,038 48.7 2,809 4,469 7,278 38.6 28,157 31,159 59,316 47.5 12.3
2021 (2) 27,484 28,470 55,954 49.1 2,998 4,685 7,683 39.0 30,482 33,155 63,637 47.9 12.1
2022 29,560 30,145 59,706 49.5 3,189 4,896 8,085 39.4 32,749 35,041 67,790 48.3 11.9
2023 31,604 31,765 63,369 49.9 3,379 5,108 8,487 39.8 34,983 36,873 71,856 48.7 11.8
2024 33,842 33,500 67,342 50.3 3,588 5,338 8,927 40.2 37,431 38,838 76,269 49.1 11.7
2025 (2)(4) 41,718 40,697 82,415 50.6 4,140 5,918 10,058 41.2 45,858 46,615 92,473 49.6 10.9
2026 (2) 52,221 50,459 102,680 50.9 4,832 6,645 11,476 42.1 57,053 57,104 114,156 50.0 10.1
2027 (2) 59,681 57,127 116,808 51.1 5,328 7,165 12,494 42.6 65,009 64,292 129,301 50.3 9.7
2028 66,279 62,922 129,201 51.3 5,770 7,635 13,405 43.0 72,049 70,557 142,606 50.5 9.4
2029 72,008 67,805 139,813 51.5 6,157 8,048 14,205 43.3 78,165 75,853 154,018 50.8 9.2
2030 (2)(5) 83,734 78,060 161,793 51.8 7,139 9,068 16,207 44.1 90,873 87,127 178,000 51.1 9.1
2031 (2) 97,554 90,092 187,646 52.0 8,358 10,317 18,675 44.8 105,913 100,409 206,321 51.3 9.1
2032 (2) 106,726 97,695 204,420 52.2 9,155 11,112 20,267 45.2 115,880 108,807 224,687 51.6 9.0
2033 114,962 104,328 219,289 52.4 9,849 11,798 21,647 45.5 124,811 116,125 240,936 51.8 9.0
2034 122,210 109,988 232,198 52.6 10,442 12,370 22,813 45.8 132,652 122,358 255,011 52.0 8.9
2035 129,162 115,267 244,429 52.8 10,997 12,903 23,901 46.0 140,160 128,170 268,330 52.2 8.9
2036 136,367 120,555 256,922 53.1 11,568 13,440 25,009 46.3 147,936 133,995 281,931 52.5 8.9
2037 143,464 125,735 269,200 53.3 12,129 13,947 26,075 46.5 155,593 139,682 295,275 52.7 8.8
2038 150,689 130,983 281,672 53.5 12,692 14,441 27,133 46.8 163,380 145,424 308,805 52.9 8.8
2039 158,423 136,437 294,860 53.7 13,292 14,962 28,254 47.0 171,715 151,399 323,114 53.1 8.7
2040 (6) 166,603 142,200 308,803 54.0 13,927 15,519 29,445 47.3 180,530 157,718 338,248 53.4 8.7
2041 172,998 147,091 320,089 54.0 14,428 15,992 30,420 47.4 187,426 163,083 350,508 53.5 8.7
2042 177,595 150,978 328,573 54.1 14,795 16,365 31,160 47.5 192,390 167,343 359,734 53.5 8.7
2043 182,225 154,776 337,002 54.1 15,164 16,727 31,891 47.5 197,389 171,503 368,893 53.5 8.6
2044 186,731 158,516 345,246 54.1 15,519 17,079 32,598 47.6 202,250 175,594 377,844 53.5 8.6
2045 191,417 162,401 353,818 54.1 15,887 17,438 33,325 47.7 207,304 179,839 387,143 53.5 8.6
2046 196,140 166,285 362,425 54.1 16,261 17,797 34,059 47.7 212,401 184,082 396,484 53.6 8.6
2047 200,861 170,179 371,040 54.1 16,637 18,164 34,801 47.8 217,498 188,343 405,841 53.6 8.6
2048 205,760 174,234 379,994 54.1 17,024 18,542 35,566 47.9 222,784 192,776 415,560 53.6 8.6
2049 210,526 178,183 388,710 54.2 17,399 18,905 36,305 47.9 227,926 197,089 425,014 53.6 8.5
2050 215,334 182,226 397,559 54.2 17,781 19,270 37,051 48.0 233,114 201,496 434,610 53.6 8.5
2051 220,190 186,283 406,474 54.2 18,166 19,644 37,810 48.0 238,356 205,927 444,283 53.6 8.5
2052 225,071 190,276 415,347 54.2 18,550 20,021 38,571 48.1 243,621 210,296 453,918 53.7 8.5
2053 230,152 194,460 424,612 54.2 18,954 20,407 39,360 48.2 249,105 214,867 463,972 53.7 8.5
2054 235,115 198,471 433,587 54.2 19,346 20,784 40,130 48.2 254,461 219,255 473,717 53.7 8.5
2055 240,252 202,676 442,928 54.2 19,750 21,181 40,931 48.3 260,002 223,858 483,860 53.7 8.5
(1) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Veridea Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2017.
(2) Ramp up is applied to the first three years of transaction and revenue impacts associated with new toll zones.
(3) The Triangle Expressway interchange with Morrisville Parkway is assumed to open January 1, 2019.
(4) Complete 540 from NC SS Bypass to I-40 (Segments 1& 2) is assumed to open January 1, 2025.
(5) Complete 540 from I-40 to Knightdale Bypass (Segment 3) is assumed to open January 1, 2030.
(6) Calendar year 2040 represents the last model year.
Smith 4-30
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
4.7 Comparison of Traffic and Revenue Forecasts by Scenario
The following presents a comparison of systemwide annual toll transaction and adjusted toll
revenue forecasts for the four study scenarios and the incremental impacts of each phasing option
on the Triangle Expressway and Complete 540.
Table 4.16 presents a comparison of annual systemwide transaction forecasts by scenario from FY
2017 through FY 2055, including the impacts of Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 compared with Scenario 1.
Also shown at the bottom of the table are the average annual rates of growth between model years
(presented as average annual percent change or AAPC).
Scenario 1 transactions are forecast to grow from 47.9 million in FY 2017 to 56.4 million in FY
2019, which represents an AAPC of 8.4 percent. Part of that growth can be attributed to the impacts
of the new interchanges at the Veridea Parkway and the Morrisville Parkway. By FY 2025,
transactions are forecast to increase to 73.1 million representing an AAPC of 4.4 percent between
FY 2019 and FY 2025. Strong growth is expected to continue throughout the forecast period with an
AAPC of 3.4 percent between FY 2025 and FY 2030, and an AAPC of 2.1 percent between FY 2030
and FY 2040, resulting in 106.3 million transactions in FY 2040.
Scenario 2 transactions mirror Scenario 1 until the opening of Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to
US 401 (Segment 1) on January 1, 2025, midway through FY 2025. The estimated impact of the first
six months of operation of Segment 1 is an increase of 6.3 million transactions or 8.7 percent over
Scenario 1. This impact increases to 15.3 million transactions (20.2 percent) in FY 2026 and to 19.9
million transactions (25.5 percent), in FY 2027. By 2029, the first full year of operation in which no
ramp-up factors were applied, Segment 1 of Complete 540 is estimated to have a positive impact on
systemwide transactions of 25.3 million (30.3 percent) over Scenario 1.
Under Scenario 3, the opening of Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to I-40 (Segments 1 and 2) on
January 1, 2025 are forecast to result in an increase of 13.6 million transactions, or 18.6 percent,
over Scenario 1. By 2029, the first full year of operation in which no ramp-up factors were applied,
Segments 1 and 2 of Complete 540 are anticipated to have a positive impact on systemwide
transactions of 55.2 million (66.1 percent) over Scenario 1.
Scenario 4 transactions match Scenario 3 until the opening of Complete 540 from I-40 to Knightdale
Bypass (Segment 3) on January 1, 2030. The estimated impact of Segments 1, 2 and 3 in FY 2030 is
an increase of 78.9 million transactions, or 91.5 percent, over Scenario 1. By 2034, the first full year
of operation in which no ramp-up factors were applied, Segments 1, 2 and 3 of Complete 540 are
estimated to have a combined positive impact on systemwide transactions of 139.4 million (148.1
percent) over Scenario 1. It should be noted that Segment 3 has six mainline tolling zones while
Segments 1 and 2 have only three mainline tolling zones each, despite all three segments having
similar distances. This results in Segment 3 having a disproportionate impact on transactions
compared to Segments 1 and 2.
Table 4.17 presents a comparison of annual systemwide adjusted toll revenue forecasts by
scenario from FY 2017 through FY 2055, including the impacts of Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 compared
with Scenario 1. Also, shown at the bottom of the table are the average annual rates of growth
between model years (presented as AAPC).
Smith 4-31
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Table 4.16
Comparison of Systemwide Transaction Forecasts by Scenario
(all traffic in thousands)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Total Impact of Scenario 2 Total Impact of Scenario 3 Total Impact of Scenario 4 Total
Fiscal Tolled Compared to Scenario 1 Tolled Compared to Scenario 1 Tolled Compared to Scenario 1 Tolled
Year Traffic Impact % Impact Traffic Impact % Impact Traffic Impact % Impact Traffic
2017 47,946 - - 47,946 - - 47,946 - - 47,946
2018 52,331 - - 52,331 - - 52,331 - - 52,331
2019 56,387 - 56,387 - - 56,387 - - 56,387
2020 60,375 - 60,375 - - 60,375 - - 60,375
2021 63,243 - 63,243 - - 63,243 - - 63,243
2022 65,779 - 65,779 - - 65,779 - - 65,779
2023 68,153 - 68,153 - - 68,153 - - 68,153
2024 70,533 - 70,533 - - 70,533 - - 70,533
2025 73,054 6,329 8.7 79,383 13,559 18.6 86,613 13,559 18.6 86,613
2026 75,597 15,259 20.2 90,856 32,788 43.4 108,385 32,788 43.4 108,385
2027 78,133 19,906 25.5 98,039 42,983 55.0 121,116 42,983 55.0 121,116
2028 80,761 23,266 28.8 104,028 50,487 62.5 131,248 50,487 62.5 131,248
2029 83,486 25,296 30.3 108,782 55,162 66.1 138,648 55,162 66.1 138,648
2030 86,310 26,769 31.0 113,079 58,665 68.0 144,975 78,943 91.5 165,253
2031 88,633 28,016 31.6 116,649 61,362 69.2 149,995 109,350 123.4 197,983
2032 90,424 29,011 32.1 119,435 63,175 69.9 153,599 123,864 137.0 214,288
2033 92,254 30,040 32.6 122,294 65,045 70.5 157,298 133,783 145.0 226,037
2034 94,124 31,105 33.0 125,230 66,973 71.2 161,097 139,369 148.1 233,493
2035 96,036 32,208 33.5 128,244 68,962 71.8 164,998 143,137 149.0 239,173
2036 97,990 33,348 34.0 131,338 71,014 72.5 169,004 147,011 150.0 245,001
2037 99,988 34,528 34.5 134,515 73,130 73.1 173,118 150,994 151.0 250,981
2038 102,029 35,748 35.0 137,777 75,314 73.8 177,344 155,088 152.0 257,117
2039 104,116 37,011 35.5 141,127 77,567 74.5 181,683 159,297 153.0 263,413
2040 106,251 38,315 36.1 144,566 79,890 75.2 186,141 163,622 154.0 269,873
2041 108,029 39,231 36.3 147,259 81,596 75.5 189,624 166,892 154.5 274,920
2042 109,433 39,741 36.3 149,174 82,656 75.5 192,089 169,061 154.5 278,494
2043 110,856 40,257 36.3 151,113 83,731 75.5 194,586 171,259 154.5 282,115
2044 112,297 40,781 36.3 153,077 84,819 75.5 197,116 173,486 154.5 285,782
2045 113,757 41,311 36.3 155,067 85,922 75.5 199,679 175,741 154.5 289,497
2046 115,178 41,827 36.3 157,005 86,996 75.5 202,174 177,937 154.5 293,115
2047 116,560 42,329 36.3 158,889 88,040 75.5 204,600 180,072 154.5 296,633
2048 117,959 42,837 36.3 160,796 89,096 75.5 207,055 182,233 154.5 300,192
2049 119,375 43,351 36.3 162,726 90,165 75.5 209,540 184,420 154.5 303,795
2050 120,807 43,871 36.3 164,678 91,247 75.5 212,054 186,633 154.5 307,440
2051 122,196 44,376 36.3 166,572 92,296 75.5 214,492 188,779 154.5 310,975
2052 123,540 44,864 36.3 168,404 93,312 75.5 216,852 190,855 154.5 314,395
2053 124,899 45,357 36.3 170,256 94,338 75.5 219,237 192,955 154.5 317,854
2054 126,273 45,856 36.3 172,129 95,376 75.5 221,649 195,077 154.5 321,350
2055 127,662 46,361 36.3 174,023 96,425 75.5 224,087 197,223 154.5 324,885
Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC)
2017-2019 8.4%
2019-2025 4.4%
2025-2030 3.4%
2030-2040 2.1%
Smith
May 30, 2017
8.4%
5.9 %
7.3%
2.5%
8.4%
7.4%
10.9 %
2.5%
8.4%
7.4%
13.8%
5.0%
4-32

c:napter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Table 4.17
Comparison of Systemwide Adjusted Toll Revenue Forecasts by Scenario
(all revenue in thousands of $)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Adjusted Impact of Scenario 2 Adjusted Impact of Scenario 3 Adjusted Impact of Scenario 4 Adjusted
Fiscal Toll Compared to Scenario 1 Toll Compared to Scenario 1 Toll Compared to Scenario 1 Toll
Year Revenue Impact %Impact Revenue Impact % Impact Revenue Impact % Impact Revenue
2017 $ 44,344 $ - - $ 44,344 $ - - $ 44,344 $ - - $ 44,344
2018 49,389 - - 49,389 - - 49,389 - - 49,389
2019 54,334 - - 54,334 - - 54,334 - - 54,334
2020 59,316 - - 59,316 - - 59,316 - - 59,316
2021 63,637 - - 63,637 - - 63,637 - - 63,637
2022 67,790 - - 67,790 - - 67,790 - - 67,790
2023 71,856 - - 71,856 - - 71,856 - - 71,856
2024 76,269 - - 76,269 - - 76,269 - - 76,269
2025 80,964 5,406 6.7 86,370 11,509 14.2 92,473 11,509 14.2 92,473
2026 85,839 13,288 15.5 99,127 28,318 33.0 114,156 28,318 33.0 114,156
2027 91,107 17,847 19.6 108,954 38,194 41.9 129,301 38,194 41.9 129,301
2028 96,565 21,416 22.2 117,980 46,041 47.7 142,606 46,041 47.7 142,606
2029 102,329 23,950 23.4 126,278 51,690 50.5 154,018 51,690 50.5 154,018
2030 108,601 26,115 24.0 134,716 56,616 52.1 165,217 69,399 63.9 178,000
2031 114,720 28,100 24.5 142,820 60,885 53.1 175,605 91,602 79.8 206,321
2032 120,558 29,884 24.8 150,442 64,429 53.4 184,987 104,129 86.4 224,687
2033 126,587 31,832 25.1 158,419 68,282 53.9 194,869 114,349 90.3 240,936
2034 132,900 33,910 25.5 166,810 72,292 54.4 205,192 122,110 91.9 255,011
2035 139,596 36,088 25.9 175,683 76,488 54.8 216,084 128,734 92.2 268,330
2036 146,426 38,309 26.2 184,735 80,849 55.2 227,275 135,505 92.5 281,931
2037 152,780 40,596 26.6 193,376 85,237 55.8 238,017 142,495 93.3 295,275
2038 158,755 43,015 27.1 201,770 89,906 56.6 248,661 150,049 94.5 308,805
2039 165,028 45,571 27.6 210,599 94,884 57.5 259,912 158,086 95.8 323,114
2040 171,692 48,339 28.2 220,032 100,260 58.4 271,953 166,556 97.0 338,248
2041 177,562 50,377 28.4 227,939 104,375 58.8 281,937 172,947 97.4 350,508
2042 182,132 51,765 28.4 233,897 107,186 58.9 289,318 177,602 97.5 359,734
2043 186,401 53,143 28.5 239,544 109,999 59.0 296,400 182,491 97.9 368,893
2044 190,747 54,440 28.5 245,187 112,723 59.1 303,470 187,097 98.1 377,844
2045 195,185 55,905 28.6 251,090 115,759 59.3 310,944 191,957 98.3 387,143
2046 199,591 57,353 28.7 256,943 118,756 59.5 318,347 196,893 98.6 396,484
2047 203,979 58,709 28.8 262,688 121,650 59.6 325,629 201,862 99.0 405,841
2048 208,454 60,160 28.9 268,614 124,720 59.8 333,174 207,106 99.4 415,560
2049 212,961 61,604 28.9 274,565 127,774 60.0 340,735 212,053 99.6 425,014
2050 217,581 63,079 29.0 280,660 130,894 60.2 348,475 217,029 99.7 434,610
2051 222,189 64,543 29.0 286,732 133,949 60.3 356,138 222,095 100.0 444,283
2052 226,759 65,990 29.1 292,749 136,947 60.4 363,706 227,159 100.2 453,918
2053 231,432 67,496 29.2 298,928 140,041 60.5 371,473 232,540 100.5 463,972
2054 236,187 68,948 29.2 305,136 143,076 60.6 379,264 237,529 100.6 473,717
2055 241,019 70,460 29.2 311,479 146,277 60.7 387,297 242,841 100.8 483,860
Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC)
2017-2019 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7%
2019-2025 6.9% 8.0% 9.3% 9.3%
2025-2030 6.0% 9.3% 12.3% 14.0%
2030-2040 4.7% 5.0% 5.1% 6.6%
Smith 4-33
May 30, 2017

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Scenario 1 adjusted toll revenue is forecast to grow from $44.3 million in FY 2017 to 54.3 million in
FY 2019, which represents at an AAPC of 10.7 percent, reflecting the combined impact traffic
growth and annual toll increases. Part of that growth can be attributed to the impacts of the new
interchanges at Veridea Parkway and Morrisville Parkway. By FY 2025, revenue is forecast to
increase to $81.0 million representing an AAPC of 6.9 percent between FY 2019 and FY 2025.
Strong growth is expected to continue throughout the forecast period with an AAPC of 6.0 percent
between FY 2025 and FY 2030, and an AAPC of 4.7 percent between FY 2030 and FY 2040, resulting
in $171.7 million in FY 2040.
Adjusted toll revenue is the same for all Scenarios until FY 2025 when Complete 540 opens. Under
Scenario 2, the opening of Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to US 401 (Segment 1) in FY 2025 has a
positive revenue impact of $5.4 million or 6.7 percent compared with Scenario 1. By 2029, the first
full year of operation to which no ramp-up factors were applied, Segment 1 of Complete 540 is
estimated to have a positive impact on systemwide adjusted toll revenue of $24.0 million (23.4
percent) over Scenario 1.
Under Scenario 3, the opening of Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to I-40 (Segments 1 and 2) in FY
2025 has a positive revenue impact of $11.5 million (14.2 percent) compared with Scenario 1. By
2029, the first full year of operation to which no ramp-up factors were applied, Segment 1 of
Complete 540 is estimated to have a positive impact on systemwide adjusted toll revenue of $51.7
million (50.5 percent) over Scenario 1.
Scenario 4 annual adjusted toll revenues match Scenario 3 until the extension of Complete 540 from
I-40 to Knightdale Bypass (Segment 3) on January 1, 2030. The estimated combined impact of
Segments 1, 2 and 3 in FY 2030 is an increase of $69.4 million, or 91.5 percent, over Scenario 1. By
2034, the first full year of operation to which no ramp-up factors were applied, Segments 1, 2 and 3
of Complete 540 are estimated to have a combined positive impact on systemwide adjusted toll
revenue of $122.1 million (91.1 percent) over Scenario 1.
Figure 4.10 presents graphical comparisons of systemwide annual toll transaction and adjusted
toll revenue forecasts for the four study scenarios.
The previously described systemwide traffic and revenue impacts of Complete 540 are comprised
of transactions at toll zones on the new segments as well as new transactions on the existing
portions of the Triangle Expressway as Complete 540 provides improved access. Table 4.18
presents transactions and adjusted toll revenue for fiscal years 2025, 2030 and 2040 from only
Triangle Expressway toll zones under each of the four study scenarios. The impacts shown
represent new Triangle Expressway transactions and revenue induced by the improved access
provided by Complete 540.
Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to US 401 under Scenario 2 is forecast to add an additional 1.5
million transactions (2.1 percent) on the Triangle Expressway in FY 2025. That impact increases to
4.2 million (4.9 percent) in FY 2030 and 7.4 million (7.0 percent) in FY 2040.
Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to I-40 under Scenario 3 is forecast to add an additiona12.3
million transactions (3.2 percent) on the Triangle Expressway in FY 2025 and 6.3 million
Smith 4-34
May 30, 2017

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Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
� rn � m �n � rn � m in � rn ,� m �n � rn � m in
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� Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3— Scenario 4
FISCAL YEAR TRANSACTIONS AND ADJUSTED
� �.,°'�'"���°�'�'A TOLL REVENUE FORECASTS BY SCENARIO
� Turnpike Au#hority
FIGURE 4.10

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
transactions (7.3 percent) in FY 2030. By 2040 that impact increases to 9.4 million (8.9 percent).
Scenario 3 impacts on Triangle Expressway transactions are approximately 50 percent greater than
those estimated for Scenario 2 in FY 2025 and 2030, and approximately 30 percent greater in 2040.
Table 4.18
Transaction and Adjusted Toll Revenue Impacts of Complete 540 on the Triangle Expressway
(transactions and revenue in thousands)
Scenario 2 Compared Scenario 3 Compared Scenario 4 Compared
Fiscal to Scenario 1 to Scenario 1 to Scenario 1
Year Scenario 1 Impact % Impact Scenario 2 Impact % Impact Scenario 3 Impact % Impact Scenario 4
2025 73,054 1,503
2030 86,310 4,252
2040 106,251 7,386
Transactions on the
2.1 74,557 2,310
4.9 90,562 6,265
7.0 113,637 9,449
3.2 75,364 2,310 3.2 75,364
7.3 92,575 5,976 6.9 92,286
8.9 115,700 8,956 8.4 115,207
Adjusted Toll Revenue Generated by the Triangle Expressway
2025 $ 80,964 $1,399 1.7 $ 82,363 $ 2,302 2.8 $ 83,266 $ 2,302 2.8 $ 83,266
2030 108,601 4,483 4.1 113,085 6,987 6.4 115,588 6,580 6.1 115,181
2040 171,692 10,010 5.8 181,703 13,500 7.9 185,192 12,470 7.3 184,162
Under Scenario 4, Complete 540 from NC 55 Bypass to the Knightdale Bypass is forecast to add 6.0
million transactions (6.9 percent) on the Triangle Expressway in FY 2030 and 9.0 million
transactions (8.4 percent) in 2040.
Adjusted toll revenue impacts, on a percent basis, are slightly smaller than the corresponding
transaction impacts for each scenario, but show similar trends throughout. This is due to the
differing toll rates on a per-mile basis at the impacted toll zones.
Table 4.19 presents a comparison of estimated transactions and adjusted toll revenue generated
on Complete 540 Segment 1 under Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 for fiscal years 2025, 2030 and 2040.
Also shown is a comparison of estimated transactions and adjusted toll revenue generated on
Complete 540 Segment 2 under Scenario 3 and Scenario 4. In both cases the impacts shown
represent new transactions and revenue generated by the improved access provided by the
opening of an adjacent segment of Complete 540.
Fiscal
Year
2025
2030
2040
2025
2030
2040
Smith
May 30, 2017
Table 4.19
Transaction and Revenue Impacts of Additional Segments on Complete 540
(transactions and revenue in thousands)
Scenario 3 Compared to Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Compared to Scenario 3
on Segment 1(NC 55 to U.S. 401) on Segment 2(U.S. 401 to I-40)
Scenario 2 Impact % Impact Scenario 3 Scenario 3 Impact % Impact Scenario 4
Transactions on Segment 1
8,872 2,202 24.8
22,517 6,512 28.9
30,929 7,962 25.7
Revenue on
$ 7,462 $1,836
21,631 6,137
38,329 9,670
ient 1
24.6
28.4
25.2
11,074
29,029
38,891
$ 9,298
27,768
47,999
Transactions on Segment 2
8,843 -
23,371 1,754
31,550 3,638
Revenue on
$ 7,270 $ -
21,868 1,725
38,775 4,474
- 8,843
7.5 25,125
11.5 35,189
ent 2
- $ 7,270
7.9 23,594
11.5 43,249
4-36

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Transactions on Segment 1 in FY 2025 are estimated to increase from 8.9 million under Scenario 2
to 11.1 million under Scenario 3. This represents a positive impact of 2.2 million (24.8 percent) on
Segment 1 transactions. This impact increases to 6.5 million (28.9 percent) in FY 2030 and to 8.0
million (25.7 percent) in FY 2040.
Transactions on Segment 2 in FY 2030 are estimated to increase from 23.4 million under Scenario 3
to 25.1 million under Scenario 3. This represents a positive impact of 1.8 million (7.5 percent) on
Segment 1 transactions. This impact increases to 3.6 million (11.5 percent) in FY 2040.
On a percent basis, revenue impacts for both comparisons are nearly identical to the transaction
impacts described above. This is due to use of a common per-mile toll rate and mainline toll zones
between each interchange on all three segments of Complete 540.
4.8 Scenario 1.1: Triangle Expressway Toll 147 Extension
This scenario is a sensitivity test of Scenario 1, consisting of adding a tolled extension of NC 147
southward from the Triangle Expressway to McCrimmon Parkway in Morrisville. The Toll 147
Extension is assumed to open January 1, 2019. The project location and general alignment are
illustrated in Figure 1.1. The existing Toll 147/Toll 540 Interchange would be expanded to include
all movements between Toll 540 and Toll 147 as seen in Figure 4.11. This figure provides a
comparison of available movements and corresponding toll rates at the existing Toll 147
interchange with To11540 and the modified interchange assumed for this scenario. Toll rates are
shown by method of payment for each toll zone for calendar years 2019, 2025, 2030 and 2040.
Figure 4.12 shows the average weekday traffic on the Triangle Expressway at 20251evels under
Scenario 1 and the corresponding impacts of the Toll 147 Extension at each location. The Toll 147
Extension, south of Toll 540, is forecast to carry approximately 17,700 vehicles on an average
weekday in 2025. Of this traffic, 12,000 vehicles pass through the new mainline toll location on Toll
147; 1,900 access the Extension via the To11540 ramps to/from the south; and 3,800 access the
Extension via the To11540 ramps to/from the north. The Toll 147 Extension provides improved
access to points in the Morrisville area resulting in a reduction of 2,200 vehicles at the Hopson Road
ramps; 2,900 vehicles on the existing Toll 147/To11540 interchange ramps to/from the north; and
1,400 vehicles on the existing Toll 147/Toll 540 interchange ramps to/from the south. Smaller
negative impacts can be seen on Triangle Expressway ramps at the interchanges with 1VC 55, the
Morrisville Parkway, Green Level West Road and US 64. No traffic impacts are forecast south of US
64 as a result of the Toll 147 Extension.
Table 4.20 presents a comparison of transaction and adjusted toll revenue forecasts between
Scenario 1 and Scenario 1.1. The impact of the Toll 147 Extension on Triangle Expressway
transactions ranges from 461,000 (0.8 percent) in FY 2019, to 2.2 million (3.1 percent) in 2025; 2.7
million (3.1 percent) in FY 2030; and 5.2 million (4.9 percent) in FY 2040. The impact of the Toll
147 Extension on Triangle Expressway adjusted toll revenue ranges from $744,000 (1.4 percent) in
FY 2019; to $4.4 million (5.4 percent) in 2025; $5.9 million (5.5 percent) in FY 2030; and 14.2
million (6.6 percent) in FY 2040.
Smith 4-37
May 30, 2017

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1.05 1.61
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INORTH CAROLINA
; � Turnpike Authority
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ETC Video
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Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
Year ETC Video
2019 0.00 0.00
2025 0.00 0.00
2030 0.00 0.00
2040 0.00 0.00
Scenario 1
Year ETC Video
2019 0.00 0.00
2025 0.00 0.00
2030 0.00 0.00
2040 0.00 0.00
Scenario 1.1
TOLL RATES ON THE TOLL 147 EXTENSION
FIGURE 4.11

3
Insef
LEGEND
Triangle Expressway
- Ramp Toll Zone
- Mainline Toll Zone
(0.0)- Distance Between
Interchanges (Miles)
00.0 Scenario 1 Weekday Traffic
0�7.t'� Impact of Toll 147 Extension
Note: All volumes are in thousands.
Complete 540 Planning Level
Traffic and Revenue Study
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TRIANGLE EXPRESSWAY: 2025 WEEKDAY TRAFFIC
� �'o'� °"cAR°L'"A IMPACTS DUE TO TOLL 147 EXTENSION
� Turnpike Authority
FIGURE 4.12

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
Table 4.20
Transaction and Revenue Impacts of the Toll 147 Extension on the Triangle Expressway
(all traffic in thousands)
Fiscal Total Tolled Traffic Adjusted Toll Revenue
Year Scenario 1 Impact % Impact Scenario 1.1 Scenario 1 Impact % Impact Scenario 1.1
2017 47,946 - - 47,946 $ 44,344 $ - - $ 44,344
2018 52,331 - - 52,331 49,389 - - 49,389
2019 56,387 461 0.8 56,848 54,334 744 1.4 55,077
2020 60,375 1,121 1.9 61,496 59,316 1,854 3.1 61,170
2021 63,243 1,481 2.3 64,724 63,637 2,547 4.0 66,184
2022 65,779 1,755 2.7 67,534 67,790 3,129 4.6 70,919
2023 68,153 1,936 2.8 70,089 71,856 3,573 5.0 75,429
2024 70,533 2,079 2.9 72,612 76,269 3,958 5.2 80,227
2025 73,054 2,234 3.1 75,288 80,964 4,373 5.4 85,337
2026 75,597 2,355 3.1 77,951 85,839 4,724 5.5 90,563
2027 78,133 2,436 3.1 80,569 91,107 4,993 5.5 96,100
2028 80,761 2,521 3.1 83,282 96,565 5,275 5.5 101,840
2029 83,486 2,609 3.1 86,095 102,329 5,589 5.5 107,917
2030 86,310 2,701 3.1 89,011 108,601 5,938 5.5 114,539
2031 88,633 2,852 3.2 91,485 114,720 6,422 5.6 121,141
2032 90,424 3,067 3.4 93,490 120,558 7,043 5.8 127,601
2033 92,254 3,292 3.6 95,546 126,587 7,717 6.1 134,304
2034 94,124 3,528 3.7 97,652 132,900 8,442 6.4 141,342
2035 96,036 3,776 3.9 99,812 139,596 9,216 6.6 148,812
2036 97,990 4,037 4.1 102,027 146,426 10,047 6.9 156,473
2037 99,988 4,309 4.3 104,297 152,780 10,946 7.2 163,726
2038 102,029 4,596 4.5 106,625 158,755 11,938 7.5 170,694
2039 104,116 4,896 4.7 109,013 165,028 13,017 7.9 178,045
2040 106,251 5,211 4.9 111,462 171,692 14,175 8.3 185,867
2041 108,029 5,407 5.0 113,435 177,562 15,003 8.4 192,565
2042 109,433 5,477 5.0 114,910 182,132 15,413 8.5 197,545
2043 110,856 5,548 5.0 116,404 186,401 15,777 8.5 202,178
2044 112,297 5,620 5.0 117,917 190,747 16,148 8.5 206,895
2045 113,757 5,693 5.0 119,450 195,185 16,514 8.5 211,699
2046 115,178 5,765 5.0 120,943 199,591 16,877 8.5 216,467
2047 116,560 5,834 5.0 122,394 203,979 17,251 8.5 221,230
2048 117,959 5,904 5.0 123,863 208,454 17,631 8.5 226,085
2049 119,375 5,975 5.0 125,349 212,961 18,017 8.5 230,978
2050 120,807 6,046 5.0 126,853 217,581 18,409 8.5 235,991
2051 122,196 6,116 5.0 128,312 222,189 18,799 8.5 240,988
2052 123,540 6,183 5.0 129,723 226,759 19,187 8.5 245,946
2053 124,899 6,251 5.0 131,150 231,432 19,581 8.5 251,013
2054 126,273 6,320 5.0 132,593 236,187 19,983 8.5 256,171
2055 127,662 6,389 5.0 134,051 241,019 20,394 8.5 261,413
Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC)
2017-2019 8.4%
2019-2025 4.4%
2025-2030 3.4%
2030-2040 2.1%
Smith
May 30, 2017
8.9%
4.8%
3.4%
2.3%
10.7%
6.9%
6.0%
4.7%
11.4%
7.6%
6.1%
5.0%
4-40

Chapter 4• Traffic and Revenue Analysis
4.9 Fiduciary Disclaimer
Current accepted professional practices and procedures were used in the development of these
updated traffic and revenue forecasts. However, as with any forecast of the future, there may be
differences between forecasted and actual results caused by events and circumstances beyond the
control of CDM Smith. In formulating its forecasts, CDM Smith has reasonably relied upon the
accuracy and completeness of information provided (both written and oral) by the NCDOT/NCTA
and other local and state agencies. CDM Smith also has relied upon the reasonable assurances of
some independent parties and is not aware of any facts that would make such information
misleading.
CDM Smith has made qualitative judgments related to several key variables in the development and
analysis of the traffic and revenue forecasts that must be considered as a whole; therefore, selecting
portions of any individual result without consideration of the intent of the whole may create a
misleading or incomplete view of the results and the underlying methodologies used to obtain the
results. CDM Smith gives no opinion as to the value or merit to partial information extracted from
this report.
All forecasts and projections reported herein are based on CDM Smith's experience and judgment
and on a review of information obtained from multiple state and local agencies, including
NCDOT/NCTA. These estimates and projections may not be indicative of actual or future values,
and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty. Future developments cannot be predicted with
certainty, and may affect the forecasts or projections expressed in this report, such that CDM Smith
does not specifically guarantee or warrant any forecasts or projections contained within this report.
While CDM Smith believes that some of the projections or other forward-looking statements
contained within the report are based on reasonable assumptions as of the date in the report, such
forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ
materially from the results predicted. Therefore, following the date of this report, CDM Smith will
take no responsibility or assume any obligation to advise of changes that may affect its assumptions
contained within the report, as they pertain to: socioeconomic and demographic forecasts,
proposed residential or commercial land use development projects and/or potential improvements
to the regional transportation network.
CDM Smith is not, and has not been, a municipal advisor as defined in Federal law (the Dodd Frank
Bill) to NCDOT/NCTA and does not owe a fiduciary duty pursuant to Section 15B of the Exchange
Act to NCDOT/NCTA with respect to the information and material contained in this report. CDM
Smith is not recommending and has not recommended any action to NCDOT/NCTA. NCDOT/NCTA
should discuss the information and material contained in this report with any and all internal and
external advisors that it deems appropriate before acting on this information.
Smith 4-41
May 30, 2017