Neuse TN TMDL II

 


 







 !""#

 


$ %
$

 


 &
'

#(#)
*

!)(++,#(#)
-+#+.)//,0"1/



 





 

 





 






 

  






  
!
 "

#$$
 "
 #
%$#
 &
 '(
 )
  
*
+
$

' *
, 
 )
 ,-


 .

#
%$#
,-


 .
 #$$
,-


 /
 '(
,-






 
0+
$1


" $++
+
*

2
3

//"


//.
"
&  
( 
.
&
#
%$#
( 

.
&

#
%$#

//
%
//"
( 
 
&
 #
%$#

//
%
//"
( 
34
!0 
&
 #
%$#

//.%
( 
 
&
 #
%$#

//.%
( 
34
!0 )
&
" #
%$#



 )
&
& #
%$#



'
**
 
& #$$
( 
 
&
#$$

//.%
( 
 
& #$$



 
& #$$



'
**
 
& '(
( 

 "
&
'(




 &
& '(



'
**
 )
& !++

#$$5
'(
6
#
%$#
( 
 )
) 


 /
.

'


.

7


.
#
!7
 
. 
+
3-
7
 
.

(
'

 
. #
'

 "

. 3-
(

#
'

7 
 &
/ '
**

8


, 
 )
/

 )
/ **
 .

 (
-
(
 .
+
,  "

 1
 9
,
!*
 "
 1
 
8*
#

'2 :
;

 "&
 1
 #

!7
'2 
(
 &


(

+

!7
+

#


#

<
$


 

+

+

!7
+

#


#

<


3
 
<

=


///



+


5

-
*
-
=


5

3








#

<
 


(>
? @
*


* 



*
3
+

A
*



///
!7
3



-


*
+



+


!7

< 



-
23 
+*







 






*

-


-


<-
+*5



-


*

8

5
!
 

+3

 <


*






3 5
!
3


* 


 

*25
-



-<
+

3


5




**
?5
#


5


*




3 


-*
+
<
*@5

1

-


-

+
*


<
+
**

 

#

<

3
+
!
*

+3


+
<

"
*


*

+
5
'*+ 5
; -

9
-+







#3

?8


@


#

<
-
*

&
A

*
<

/




#3
5

#

2






3 
-

*
35
+A




**



 

 
*


#

<







+
"
*



,
(
?




 @5
3

- 






+

*
-+
*
(*
'
 

  !
"

#

<


-3
'
8
 

,
(


#
,:
? @

+
%
?-

.
*
*

-


)
*
3*
+*

#
:
+

3

<@


!7
3
 
%
?+
+


@


 5
-

3
2

*

5
3







-


*
1<
3
+






0


<





?5
1


@


-

-
+

!75
-

2
+



+


?A

+

<
* @

*2

-*

8


 5

*
3
 







'+5

!7



<



A



B
+

*



+


*
?$(

 
+



*@
-<

%
 
+

4

C+5

3
-
+




4 



*
3


*

+





?!7@




*
3


4 


8



Durham
Raleigh
Cary
Wilson
Goldsboro Kinston New BernHavelock
Falls Lake
Pamlico
Sound
Neuse River
Smithfield
NEUSE RIVER BASIN

# $ "%&
"

* 
<
-
*

*


!7

*


4 

+



* 

+



D
• 
,$%





#


5

23


#

$

$

 
?#$$@
• 
--
32
* 


#

$


$

#32
?#
%$#@
• 


'*

(*
?'(@



#




+<




+




3


* 



 
*
-


8




+3





+


<5
E5
 5


735




 
+

!7

 
 






-


-<

3
*
3
*
-<5

-





3
!




5
3
*
+





*

*


"
8



? %


<

73



3@
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
Upper
Middle
Bend
New Bern
C.P.
Lower
River
10 0 10 20 Miles
N
Use Support Areas and ModMon Stations

 $ 
$
+

* 
3
-
1
+



+3


$

#$$


*5
*
-
*

* 

2

*
+
3
A

<-






**


3
*D


*





<




3

*




< 




?
+*
-2

-2@



-
-






* %

-
E#,


+

'
?'@



,


+

 
?#

<
 

@
>
+


-
=


5

//.

 
!*-

5


!


-*
3

-

+
F
A

!







!7




-

!



'
&





)

* 
<
<
* 

*




* 
<*

2 


#

-
<





G
+

* 
*



+*
2 





 *


-%* 



-%
* 
3
< 


3



+
1
+*

1
*
-

 *

3
<<
+3
3





&
!
=*
3

=++
C*

+

E<
+
#
,

,
<

#$$
?3

C*
5
@


* 
2
*
-













&

<-5




+
25

*5
<
1

-% <
1
* 5








<-



+
<

3
*
* 
+*32




*
<


-


1*
%+
*



* 
< 

3

*

1*
+%*
*
+*

3

+


 *
-*



3
-


* D

?
@

#

-

&
*


+*
'
8
 5
3

-

.
*
*
+
#3
5

-



*
3*
+
G5

?@


-

+

*

1 
-


*
*
+*

+

3

#


8




*
+

* 
*
+



8




'&


#

$


$

#32
?#
%$#@5
3
2

2
<
+

(!


!
2
E<5


--
32
* 






+


- 

 5
*

++

-




* 



+3
*

-


 


?
@

<


 


 <
25
3

-


+


*


* 5
3
-

+

+
#
%$#


*

, 

*


* 
+*325
%



<-5



+<
 
<-D
?
@

+3

8
35
?@


#


8
35
?@


3
*

? @

**
<-
+




*
?E#,%'

$H@

?"@

?

3






@






*

++


*






CROATAN
NEUSE ESTUARY EUTROPHICATION MODEL:
1 - 5
1
6 - 10
11 - 15
NATIONAL
FOREST
New Bern
Trent River Arapahoe
Cherry Point
Havelock
SouthRiver
Slocum
Creek
Clubfoot Creek
Back Creek
Adams Creek
South River
Broad Creek
Goose Creek
Upper Broad Creek
10 Miles
10 KM
Hancock
CreekN
MODEL SEGMENTATION
16 -20
21 -25
36 -40
41 - 45 51 - 55
6156 - 60
26 -30
63
64
65
31 -35
46 -50
SFB, 0
m 64, 10
m 52a, 20
m 38, 30
Hwy 17, 40
m 22, 50
m 17, 60
m 15, 70
m 11, 80
90 100
110
m 9, 120 130
140
150
m 7, 160
)
5
3


++
<
-


3
*



-

+3
++





*



-


++



#




+


**
<-



++
+

*



*5




+

 -

-3



'




I


'
-5
-

'
2


+
-
*
3


2

I
-
*



*
?





///
3

3


<
*
*
+*
"
*


"
*@

C3<5




**
<-



++


* 



A
5

*
-
 

-

J<<K
* 

*

,<<



*

-



<-5








*
-
<<
+
3
A
F


 



* 

*

*
+

*
+
+5



<


+
-5
* 


3
-
< 
3

3



**
<-




8
3
3

 


 
<-

*



++
3
+
 5
-


3

+5




3





+
* 

#
%$#
3
-

* %
E#,%'





3

-3

//


///

+

+
#
%$#

-

3
+

 
+



<
-
I

*
*+


2 


* 



 
+
+25
-
A
5
+
-
 5

+





+*






 

# (
E'$(

0
<

#

<

+




'*

(*
?'(@

'(



3
A

* 


-


3

  *
* 



5
$<*
8

!*
, 
?$8!,@
3



  *
* 

$8!,4'(

*

,$%E7

?#$$@






*5
*

* 

2

*
+
3
A

<-






2
++
-3

3
* 


'(

-
+

+
**


*5


3
+
,$%E7


 

<


*

<
5
'(
< 




?
+*
-2

-2@



3 5
3
,$%E7


 



*5
'(
*2

1
 

'(



#


-
-






* %


-
E#,


+

'
?'@


+

 
>
+


-
=


5

//.

 
!*-

5



 

+





* 

-
-



-
#
,
'
E<


//.


///
#
 $ 
)*!) 
G
+

*
+
23
+

!7

3



 *

-

+

3

+3







3
-
.
+


 *



*


3
3


 5


 
+*


:
 *



*


+





G
-

+
 *



**

3


3


 5


 


<
+

*








 *


'
-A
5

+
1
+


+*

 *



3

*




+

3
A

-+

I 


-


5



3


 5

 *

<


*

5
3

3
*
*
+
+

,A
5
+




<



-

*<*
I
-


3
 




-

+


<
+

?
-
-
@


+*
+




-
-

?#

#G@

#
%$#


**

* 
 *
5



 

+


+ 


#$$



 *

-%* 

E


-%* 5

#$$

*2
 

3

 *

*
<<



+
3
A



*


1



-%* 

-
+



#$$
( 


'(



+
1
+


+*

 *



+
  ,& 


+3
5
-
+

3
-

+

* 
 5

<+
1



3


-

+

* 5




+*

3
-

 
+

'&
  ,& 
-

5


+3
5


-
+

+
#
%$#
+*

// %
///

'3

-




+3


* 
+

+

+

 
?E#,%'




@
* %
*
5



**
+






!


3
<-



-

-*


-
-><
3

<

*

?$@
+



**
*

*
A


?'$@
+


* 


* 
<



 
+

<-


-<



1
-

* 

+



*

<-


-<
5

* 
*
-
3
-




*

<-

1F






73

+






* 
+
"



*3

+
) 
+




*
15


3







<-

-<




*
A


?'$@


 
<
+

* 

5
3


++
-3
* 
 

-<



*

?$@


++
-3

-<


 
 

%-
* 5



#
%$#5

*
*
-


? ++
-3
-<

 
<
@
3

*
+

?
* 
J



* 
+

K@

,*
3


*
3




* 
 




-


 5

3
-
1




5


+*
+

3


<


3
*
-
 




-



-

+
#
%$#

+

* 





**
<-
/
-


#
%$#
-

+

1/94–12/99
Use
Support
Area
Station Number of
Observations
Log
(Chla)
R^2 RMSE ME
River 0 199 0.08 1.05 -0.08
10 200 0.12 1.05 0.00
20 201 0.21 1.07 0.17
Upper 30 202 0.52 0.93 -0.11
50 146 0.56 0.86 0.16
Middle 60 98 0.48 0.85 -0.13
70 201 0.33 0.84 0.05
Bend 100 66 0.18 0.88 -0.15
120 197 0.11 0.78 0.06
Lower 140 84 0.03 0.74 0.08
160 82 0.11 0.72 0.00
River Summary 600 0.13 1.06 0.03
Upper “ 349 0.53 0.91 0.00
Middle “ 299 0.38 0.84 0.00
Bend “ 263 0.14 0.81 0.00
Lower “ 166 0.07 0.73 0.04
Total 1677 0.53 0.92 0.00
+

$  ,& 
G
3

+35
-



#$$
-
+

+

+*
=


5

//.


!*-

5


'3


+

+

+

 
* %
*
5



**
+






-
-><
3

*


*
<
-

+

+

-<




-5

-

*1*
*
+


* 
?

@5


<

*

+
I



* 
+
".
?".B@

*3

+
* 
 
+



*

+
I
 


* 


-



*


-<



#$$
-



-
+

5
3
#
%$#


-
+

F

*

*
+

* 





*-



#$$
'$

$
-


*

3
#
%$#:
+



<



*-




* 
-

+

#$$

<-


A




+
*

++5

#$$
3
-


'





5
'
*


-


+
-5



*
3

-

I
-



*
?




///


3


<
*
-3
"
*


"
*@


5

#$$

+

3
-

'
5
3



3
-






#$$


<

-



?* 
*@

<
3
5





+



+
-<
++


<


!
5

 >
*
+
3



+

-<


 

*





-

#$$
-
+

+

Section Station 1/98 - 12/00
# obs Log10(Chla ug/l)
ME RMSE R2
River 0 192 -0.59 0.96 62.2%
10 162 -0.21 1.05 43.0%
20 193 0.19 1.31 33.0%
Upper 30 195 -0.06 1.08 60.8%
50 195 -0.28 1.10 61.1%
Middle 60 154 -0.22 1.18 48.2%
70 194 -0.17 1.22 41.1%
Bend 100 154 -0.09 1.15 32.8%
120 193 -0.17 1.09 24.7%
Lower 140 175 -0.08 1.15 6.9%
160 171 -0.21 0.98 17.5%
River 548 -0.20 1.12 41.6%
Upper 390 -0.17 1.09 61.0%
Middle 348 -0.19 1.20 44.4%
Bend 347 -0.13 1.12 28.8%
Lower 346 -0.14 1.07 11.3%
Total 1980 -0.17 1.12 58.2%
+
# (  ,& 
G

+35
-





'(
-
+

+

+

//.


///

'3


+

+

+

 
* %
*

?%
&@5


#,'E
 %

?' @

8

3

< 


**
+







-
-><
3

J*I

* 

-




 


#

<4$




*5


+

<-5


 




-
*




>
*
+
+
+

-
3
-

A
<
?-
+
>
*
+
* 
+
-<
@

A
<
?
* 


*
 
+
+@K
?$(

05

@


'(
-





*
?
<


 @
+
'$

$5
3

#$$

#
%$#


-
+

F

*






*-


<


*




-


$(
< 
-





-5





*
<

+

#$$

#
%$#
-


//.
'(
-
+

+

Section Station 1/98 - 12/98
# obs Log(Chla)
R^2 RMSE ME
River 0 24 0.34 0.15 0.57
10 24 0.61 0.15 1.08
20 24 0.46 0.13 2.01
Upper 30 24 0.57 0.18 7.27
50 24 0.38 1.16 8.44
Middle 60 24 0.38 2.43 6.13
70 24 0.11 2.63 -0.97
Bend 100 24 0.42 3.34 9.76
120 24 0.24 2.47 6.10
Lower 140 20 0.26 2.27 10.55
160 18 0.07 2.49 9.05
Side Bullseye 23 0.34 0.51 -4.72
Flanner 18 0.37 3.15 -11.90
Kennel 20 0.24 1.47 -4.15
Cherry Point 21 0.23 1.97 -7.47
Beard 23 0.21 0.81 -11.17
Minnesott 23 0.41 0.20 -10.21


-


///
'(
-
+

+

Section Station 1/99 - 12/99
# obs Log(Chl
a)
R^2 RMSE ME
River 0 25 0.88 0.01 -0.28
10 24 0.60 0.02 -0.70
20 24 0.30 0.02 -0.21
Upper 30 25 0.78 0.18 -0.43
50 25 0.75 0.28 0.47
Middle 60 24 0.63 2.17 -3.23
70 25 0.73 4.35 -2.68
Bend 100 24 0.57 2.66 -10.38
120 24 0.55 1.77 -5.17
Lower 140 23 0.05 2.24 -4.13
160 23 0.88 5.59 -8.48
Side Bullseye 31 0.01 2.33 -7.11
Flanner 26 0.33 1.61 -6.63
Kennel 26 0.00 0.18 -8.00
Cherry Point 31 0.01 0.75 -6.72
Beard 21 0.05 1.40 -12.66
Minnesott 31 0.01 0.57 -9.19
+
+ -*.
E
* 
-



?
3


 @5


* 
3



< 
-

 
+



 
3
*

-<







 
+
3

* 
 



*

3

3

- 

;




++


2

 

 




5
-



< 
*
<
+
* 
<+

+

* 
A

-
 
 
+*
?**
*
+
+3




8
3@
-+


-


+
5



A

++
*

+




#$$

'(
A

*

3*
-
 
?'
8


G@
 
+*



5


3

1

 

-



3
5

--



<



3
 

 

 
*

#
%$#


-
 
 
**
*
+*
+
+3





8
3




*


+




+



3

 
1 


*
+A
5

3
<

-
 
 


2

++


*


5


< 

-
"
+

E5
 



+



-
"

0+
$1


?
+
-3@
2000 Verification Exercise
Statistics
Area # obs Log base e (Chla
ug/l)
Model R2 RMSE ME MAE
Upper 72
NEEM 0.43 0.84 0.17 0.79
Neu-BERN 0.43 0.84 0.35 0.70
WASP 0.50 0.79 0.16 0.61
Middle 60
NEEM 0.16 0.67 0.00 0.64
Neu-BERN 0.13 0.69 0.28 0.49
WASP 0.08 0.70 0.14 0.49
Bend 60
NEEM 0.01 0.65 -0.11 0.65
Neu-BERN 0.05 0.66 0.25 0.49
WASP 0.01 0.66 0.23 0.54
All 355
NEEM 0.54 0.84 -0.01 0.78
Neu-BERN 0.58 0.58 0.28 0.67
WASP 0.57 0.81 0.20 0.57


-

<

3

*

+

?

'$

$5
-


$@


3

-
-

1
*
+

<-
-

<

I-


*
A


?'$@


 
<
+

* 


? ++
-3
-<

 @

3
'$

-



?$@


<
++
-3

-<

 

*



I

-5

<
<

 

* 
 
 

<5


<
<

 


* 
<
 

<

C3

* 
 


 
? 
4@
*
-
++
+*
3

 

<


-


?$@


-

<

+

++
-3

-<


 
* 
 


3

*
-

5

-


3
5
$

'$

 

-

-

+
* 
*


++
-3
$

'$


'$




*

* 
+*
*


<+
1


* 
<


*<
3


5



*



*
-





3

#
+

* 
+*
3


 





#$$


*


3


I5
-



*
-



#
%
$#

'(
+*

-

$



* 
+*
*
3
'$


$ "**!



 
+

<+
1

* 
++







+3
+*
D
∑
∑∑
=
==
−





−−−
n
i
n
i
n
i
OOi
OiPiOOi
1
2
2
11
2
)(
)()(
3D
GL
L

-<
(L
L

 
G
M

L
*
+

-<






-
+
N
5


* 
 
-


*
+

-<
+
O
5


*
+

-<

-


* 
-
&

$ "**!


+*
<+
1
All areas U –Upper
WASP 0.497 M - Middle
BERN 0.530 B - Bend
NEEM 0.408
U,M,B only
WASP 0.372
BERN 0.386
NEEM 0.142
M,B only
WASP 0.330
BERN 0.432
NEEM 0.067

*
+
* 
++5
#
%$#
+*

-5

 





-
 
 




3




3
-
*
?E5
 

 @5
* 
+*




* 
*
-


*
+

-<

"
( 

3
-









<+
15





* 
*<
3
+*
-
 
3





G
+




#$$

'(
3
+

-





<+
1
 
3
<  




*<

 <
-
+

!7
?
-



-
% @
/
 ***$"),011/112


//"%
//.




+







#





+

* 
 

//.%5


+


//"
-

+*

+
!7
3
*

*
3


-3

//"


//.

!
2
E<

,
'3

2

25
-



+


5
 

.) !
B



* 03"

-3

//"


//.

?G<
* 

9
+3
 >


 



"5
=






+
+3
 >



8
3




+
+*@

83
 >





+

*
+



3







 
*

+*




C3<5




-<


B
*

5

3
2








-


*

-

//.
?-

 %+%5

*

B
%
25

@





<
--



B





-


 " "


+3

33

+
+3
 >


-

+
%

++

*


*
*

-3

//
%
//"
 


//.%
 



+

"B



**5
-3

//"


//.



1*
B


+3
 >

5
3


 

<

 
83
 >



*<

++
+
*
+3
+*
 F



A



 

83
 >



*
-
*



%*
* 
+3
+*



+


<


+3

'3

8





* 
%*
+3
3

-




*


 


E

* 
%*
+3
3
+
<5


-
5
*
+
+3
 >




83
 >





<
*
2


?
**

3
,
'3@


+3
 >
*


 5



-*
+
*


*
*
+3
 >




+

//
%
//"


//.%



"
*4

/"
*45
<


 

B





-

-


*
+
8
3
-3

//"


//.

8
*
 
+
5

++
-3

*
112'



*
?5
-


 

P

 



8


-<@


*
11'11/ 0

*

B


++
-3

*
112' 0


*


*
11'11/


*

.B

'*5

 







"


5

/"B

&
+ 
<5
3





*

3
 
5


B

B



+3
 >


-3

//"


//.
?,
'35

@
8


83
 >




8
3
?'3


25

+@
8
3


>

-3

+

-3

#

<

,
,2
?-3
9

#3


8


@




+




3

 
5

* 


5


-*



9> 

?#C



#@
Fl
o
w
-
A
d
j
u
s
t
e
d

N

(
m
g
/
L
)
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Fort Barnwell
5




-<


B
*

5

3
2








-


*

?*

%
25

@





<
*
2



B




+

+3
 >







+

//&


///5







//.
3
*

+


*





+*

 5
3
++<


 





-A




 


+3

33

+
+3
 >


-

+
%

++

*


*
*

-3

//
%
//"
 


//.%
 



+

"B





*


*F

*
-<5


B
?
@


B




-


"/
3





5

* 


5


-*



9> 

?#C



#@
?' 




-


*@
5

//.


///
3


5






3

33

+
+3
 >




5

33





*
-*
*
< 
3
 
+








+

5
0 .)"*,04#4







-3

//"


//.
?
//
%
//"


//.%@F


3

)
-


*

!7







5






+3
 >


*
-
  







*
-*
< 
3
 
+



+

G<
*5
+

+3
 >


*
5


3







?,
'35

@

!
3





2


+3


*
3
**
++

++

 
8

"
#


8
3

?'3


25

+@
Ni
t
r
o
g
e
n

L
o
a
d

(
m
e
t
r
i
c

t
o
n
s
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Fort Barnwell
8

&

,*-
(
+

#
7
?+
@

83% >

,
?
@ G
 

-
3



$


*

<
**


3
Trends in Total Nitrogen Load and Flow-Adjusted Conc.
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
19
7
9
19
8
1
19
8
3
19
8
5
19
8
7
19
8
9
19
9
1
19
9
3
19
9
5
19
9
7
19
9
9
Year
TN

L
o
a
d

(m
e
t
r
i
c

t
o
n
s
)
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Fl
o
w
-
A
d
j
u
s
t
e
d

N

(
m
g
/
L
)
TN load FAN
1995
1998

.

3
+



3









*
2
*



*

?* @
 F








<-



+3


-2




<-5


B





3

2
%"


-

-





"
%<

'



<


2

-

5

*


-
 


3
-



*
 




?'3

5

@
5
 $ 
8
!7
*5

*
 
+*

+

* 

1 
--5


1
+A

+
1 


 


+
 

#
%$#
*



++
3


#$$

'(F

++
3
-
1


+3


5
#
%$#

-

< 
 
+

//
%
//"

 



//.%5
+
3

* 
< 
 

85
#
%$#



* 

< 


( 
3
-
< 
+
#
%$#5
#$$

'(

8
#
%$#5

3
-
+


+
 D

//
%
//"
3

3

<<

*5


//.%
3

3

<<

*


#$$

'(
* 


//.%


#$$

* 




+

5
+

 *


-
1





 
+
++

5

'&


*
 

3
-
 


*








+
%5
<

-



4 



 

+


+

%*
? 
 


%
*@
3


**
<-


 




3



+
<



*

1*
!
5
3
*


I
*
?!
*-


3
-

*




+





4 
*5




3

**
F


3
-
  5
-








3
-
 @



+


+
 

*

#
%$#




+




**
<-

-



<<

*



 

<



1*
/B


3



+
'

?
+
-
*@
3



+

 









**
<-
3
-
< 

3F




*
2


+

#$$

'(5
3




<
+


-<

( 

< 
+
3
* 
 D

4/
%
4/"


4/.%
4




< 
+

-



?* 


3
-<
 @

8
35

+
<


+


-
+*
-
?

@



< 
 
+
3

<



//
%
//"


//.%
0 %6,
3
3

 

 5


<

73






3
*

**
?<
3
1 
--5

-3@
<



5





+



E5
 






?
8

@

/

+


+
 



+







<


5

1
1 
--
?1



P



+

--


*@5

/B
+ 
<
+

1 
--5


+ 
+
*

$
+

3
-
1
+

-3

( 

3

-
&%.

8

"%

<
,
D


<



*
*
 


+

+
* 
 
$1 
(--D

<

* 5

* 

+



* 
 
J



* 
+

K

*
1


-

-


 5

< 
-

++
-3

-<



* 
 
?* 
@




+*325

1
<


*

<


*
-

?

5
+


+*@


3 5

* 

+


*
+

-
5
-

3
*
1




<



?-<

-3@



*
+









1 
--
+

%
4

  

'
8

)


+3

+



+
1 
--


*
-
+


2
+

1%1


*
+


?*
@

2
+


*
-

?
<@


1 
--



-3


*
-

?
<@

-<

%
4
 
?
I
@

1 
--



+




<
* 
 F



<


%
  



1 
--
+

* 



<
1 
--
<




*
3


4 
5

<
1 
--


-


-3

B
85
3


*

*

-
*
-+

*
+



1 
--

-


A


<




* 
*
 5

*
-

?+


+*@
* 



#
%$#:
-
+



*
-
+


*
/B
,+ 
<
?+
$1 
(--@D

 




+





++
+

 
<-






*
* 
*-

3
+

-<






*

-
<




 
+

-

*


/B
+ 
<


* 
/B
?"B
*<
+*

 @
+

1 
--
 
+*

*
 A

* 
*-



<

+
1 
--
<


-
*
-
 

J1
1 
--K




*
+


++5



* 
<

+

 <
-

,+ 
+
,*D

 

-








/B
+ 
<


1*


+

 <
-



-3

B5
3




B

+


4 


'

 <
-



*
-


**5

+ 
+
*



<
+*

/B
+ 
<

G






<
 





*<
3
+*
*
-
 

8
1*5

 






//
%
//"
3



-



/B
+ 
<






?
-
)@


*



<5
-
5
5



-

3
<
*


3
*<
3
+*
-
?-



// %
///@
 

 

++<



+ 
+
*
8

)
5

 
'&
11'11/(70%%))!-, 8






J
 K

,
 
*
-
+



3

 
1 





*
<

<

//
%
//"
 



-
+


+

#

!7
+



A

 




*
<*
+

#



?**




@
-
)5

8

)

.
-3
3
#
%$#:
 
+

//
%
//"

-



+*
log(chl a)
RMSEModel
Prediction
Exceedance
Probability
likelihood
40 ug/L
Standard


#


* 
 
+
1 
--

/B
+ 
<


 



3

*-


+ 
+
*


 




B



 
+

1

+

* 
 
-
)
#
%$#
* 
 
+

//
%
//"
0%


**
<-




-


* 
-




-<




8
3

P


%""B






+*

-
1/91 - 12/95
Upper Estuary (Stations 30-50)
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl.
(%)
Baseline (0%) 17.9 11 7 - 14 30
-30% 15.7 9 7 - 12 80
-35% 15.6 9 6 - 11 80
-40% 15.0 8 6 - 11 80
-45% 15.0 8 5 - 11 80
-50% 14.9 8 5 - 11 80
-55% 14.4 8 5 - 11 90
Middle Estuary (Stations 60-90)
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl.
(%)
Baseline (0%) 22.5 14 10 - 18 5
-30% 20.2 12 9 - 15 20
-35% 19.5 11 8 - 14 30
-40% 18.9 11 7 - 14 40
-45% 18.9 10 7 - 14 50
-50% 18.6 10 6 - 16 50
-55% 18.4 10 6 - 16 60
Bend of Estuary (Stations 100-120)
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl.
(%)
Baseline (0%) 26.7 18 13 - 24 0
-30% 20.5 12 9 - 15 20
-35% 19.5 11 7 - 14 40
-40% 18.8 10 7 - 14 50
-45% 17.6 9 6 - 13 70
-50% 17.4 9 5 - 12 80
-55% 16.7 8 4 - 12 80




*
 
 
* 


+


//
%
//"
 D
?
@ #
%$#
3
-


+*

// %
///5


+


+




 
+

* 
-
 
?@ 




-



//&5



* 
 >

 








  I

 


%*

?@ !


-*
3

-

+
F
A

!


3




*

!

+







-*
3

5






-



-
*
3
<
*

 5

!
-
-*
3


<
-
+








 

-
 
5

<
 





*<
3
+*
*
-
 F
-


* 5


 
++<
3

+ 
+
*
*
+

//
%
//"
+*
3

*
-
+
3


*
*



 


8

.

/
-3



<

3

<





//
%
//"
3
3


 
8

. ?/B
+ 
<

 @
1991-1995 Neu-BERN Exceedance Probabilities
0
5
10
15
20
0% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
Reduction amount
Fr
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

p
r
e
d
i
c
t
i
o
n
s
ab
o
v
e

c
h
l

s
t
d

(
%
)
Upper
Middle
Bend

8

/
5

'&
11'11/(0%%))!-, 


+


**
<-
1
 

<-5
-








*
-
 
<
J<<K
?*
<
+
3
A
@


*



++

+

+3
D
?
@ 

 

<<

*

#
%$#



* 




+

-2 3
-3










<


5








//5
3



* 

< 

A






<







-



*

*







5


* 


I

<






?



@
?@ 
<


+
!75

*

1
*
+
+
*

-
 

++



*
*
+
+




<<
* 

*5
3

1
*
+
+

 
-
 


+ 
+
*


 

+


**
<-


 5


*
-




!7



*
*
+
+

1
*
+
+
*



 

?@ #

#$$

'(


<
+


-<

5
3



++
+


**
<-

,A
5
#
%$#:


3



**
<-

*
*-




+*

#$$

'(


+
5

*
*
-

< 


+*
#
%$#
3

3



**
<-

5

+


+


*
-
  
1991-1995 Neu-BERN Confidence of Compliance
0
20
40
60
80
100
0% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
Reduction amount
Pr
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

(
%
)
Upper
Middle
Bend

-
.
#
%$#
* 
 
+

//
%
//"
0%


**
<-



-


* 
-




-<




8
3

P
"5
%

P "B






+*

-
1/91 - 12/95
Upper Estuary (Stations 30-50)
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl. (%)
Baseline (0%) 14.5 8 6 - 10 90
-15% 13.9 7 6 - 9 99
-30% 13.4 7 5 - 9 99
-45% 13.0 7 4 - 9 99
Middle Estuary (Stations 60-90)
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl. (%)
Baseline (0%) 17.7 9 6 - 12 70
-15% 16.9 8 7 - 11 90
-30% 16.2 8 6 - 10 90
-45% 15.6 7 4 - 10 90
Bend of Estuary (Stations 100-120)
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl. (%)
Baseline (0%) 21.5 13 9 - 16 10
-15% 18.9 10 8 - 12 50
-30% 16.7 8 6 - 10 90
-45% 14.9 6 4 - 9 99
5

#
'&
112'(70%%))!-, 8


//.%
 5
 


'3


2
5



3
3
*
-


++
+





?
'
"@


*5

3


 

++
+










<

-
/




#
%$#:
 
+

//.%
"
-
/
#
%$#
* 
 
+

//.%
0%


**
<-




-


* 





//.%
-<




8
3

%"B


%B






+*

-
1/98 - 12/00
Upper Estuary (Stations 30-50)
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl. (%)
Baseline (0%) 13.6 7 5 - 9 99
-5% 13.4 7 5 - 9 99
-10% 13.2 7 5 - 9 99
-15% 13 7 5 - 9 99
-20% 12.6 6 4 - 8 99
-25% 12.7 6 4 - 9 99
-30% 12.4 6 4 - 9 99
Middle Estuary (Stations 60-90)
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl. (%)
Baseline (0%) 19.2 11 8 - 14 20
-5% 18.7 11 8 - 13 40
-10% 18.5 11 8 - 14 40
-15% 18.6 11 8 - 14 40
-20% 18.3 10 7 - 14 50
-25% 18.1 10 7 - 14 50
-30% 17.9 10 6 - 15 50
Bend of Estuary (St. 100-120)
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl. (%)
Baseline (0%) 20.6 12 9 - 15 10
-5% 19.7 11 8 - 14 30
-10% 19.1 10 7 - 15 50
-15% 19 10 7 - 15 50
-20% 17.8 9 6 - 13 70
-25% 17.7 9 6 - 13 70
-30% 17.1 8 5 - 13 80

 



+

//.%5
3

>








*


-3

//"%
//.

+


//"
-

+*

+

+

!7
?
'
"@

 5
3
*

+








<





//"%
//.





//"
-
 5


2


//.%



+*

*
 


%)90%112'11/'112%"*
%!*)%%
$11/,  

&
8







-3
3
#
%$#:
 
+

//.%


+*
5

 




<

3

<





//.%
3
3


 
8



?/B
+ 
<

 @
8




1998-2000 Neu-BERN Exceedance Probabilities
0
4
8
12
16
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Reduction Amount
Fr
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

p
r
e
d
i
c
t
i
o
n
s
ab
o
v
e

c
h
l

s
t
d

(
%
)
Upper
Middle
Bend
1998-2000 Neu-BERN Confidence of Compliance
0
20
40
60
80
100
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Reduction amount
Pr
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

(
%
)
Upper
Middle
Bend
)
5

+
'&
112'(0%%))!-, 




'
&

?
@5


+*
#
%$#

< 
3

3



**
<-
-


#
%$#
* 
 
+

//.%
0%


**
<-



-


* 





//.%
-<




8
3

%
"B5
%B

P "B






+*

-
1/98 - 12/99
Upper Estuary Stations 30-50
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl. (%)
Baseline 11.9 5.9 4 - 8 99
-15% 11.5 5.6 4 - 8 99
-30% 11.1 5.3 3 - 8 99
-45% 10.8 5.0 3 - 8 99
Middle Estuary Stations 60-90
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl. (%)
Baseline 15 7.3 5 - 9 99
-15% 14.6 6.9 5 - 9 99
-30% 14.3 6.6 4 - 10 95
-45% 13.9 6.3 3 - 11 90
Bend of Estuary Stations 100-120
TN Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) 90% C.I. Conf. Compl. (%)
Baseline 15.8 7.2 5 - 9 99
-15% 14.4 5.9 4 - 8 99
-30% 13.2 4.9 3 - 8 99
-45% 12.1 4.0 2 - 7 99
5

/
'&
&
"
7
-3

<
+

 
3
*

*





?*
+
+
 
@
• "B
--
+
*
?+ 
+
*
P

'
"
@
3





-






3

J1
1 K


B


+ 
*
-
 
3
 

*
+
+
.
• 
--
+
*

+
** 



F
) 0**%!) 




 *

+




*
-

-



*







5

 
+

*





 *

• 
+ 
+
*



+

+




* 
 


3




 


++
+*
-
 
?





@


*
-

3

/B
+ 
<
3 5


+ 
+
*
*
+

<

3







-<
<
+
**



*
*


A










+
+ 
+
*
*) 


2


A







+

* 
 

*
*



*
-





+



*
3


4 



<
*5




<

1 
--
+

B

5


+ 
+
*
--
+
"B




*+


5



3


1 
--
3
-
<3 



*5

+


3
-


+
*
3


4 


//
%
//"
,
, 
%
E


0%


**
<-
• B







 



B
--
+
*
?+ 
+
*@
3


4 



 

• "B







 



"B
--
+
*
3


4 



 

• "B







 



"B
--
+
*
3


4 



 


//
%
//"
,
, 
%
E


0%


**
<-
•
"B







 



"B
--
+
*
?+ 
+
*@
3


4 





• B







 



/B
--
+
*
3


4 



 



• "B







 



/B
--
+
*
3


4 



 

 






 
-<5

*
*
+
 


+*

//
%
//"
 

+*

"B
?3


**
<-@

"B
?3

**
<-@
/

//.%
,

, 
%
E


0%


**
<-
•
"B







 



B
--
+
*
?+ 
+
*@
3


4 



 

• B







 



"B
--
+
*
3


4 



 

• "B







 



"B
--
+
*
3


4 


 


//.%
,

, 
%
E


0%


**
<-
• B







 



//B
--
+
*
?+ 
+
*@
3


4 




•
"B







 



//B
--
+
*
3


4 




• B







 



/"B
--
+
*
3


4 


 

 






 
-<5

*
*
+
 


+*

//.%
 

+*

?3


**
<-@

B
?3

**
<-@

%B






//.%
3

-

 






-
<
-3

//"


//.
?
'
&

-3
-
/@

8
5

+

//"
-

+*

+

+

!7


*

2
QB
?

*@
+*

5


2
%B
+*


P
Q


*

Q

-3


B
?
'
"@

'
+
3
*

Q

B


 

//.%




B5

*
+




B




1*5
+
3
*

Q

B



//.%


 

B5

*
+




B
?B
+*
)
A

"&@



**5

*

+





#
%$#

//.%


//"%
//.


% B
 !

*
 



 



*

+

3
 
<


-



 


<

+


*




3
 
+
 





*5

*
<


 


!7
3
-





<


3


+
**
?
@


3- 

?
@



+

<




1




<*
+
3
A

  

5

5
'&
&
"))!


**I5
-



//
%
//"
* 




//.%
* 

3
 
+



<
-3

//"


//.5

*


 




 
+*

//"
 5
-

#
%$#


 9

+*


"B




**
<-


 5
#
%$#
*

 


+
% "B5
3
+


**
<-

* 5
#
%$#
*

3
+*
I


"B



  

C3<5

*
+
+
*


-
 



$"**!*
'&
&
"




**
<-5




<<
* 

*
?

+

**
<-
3

'


-

)%
B
<





*
-
 

5



+




@





*
+
+

-
*

 

A


-*5
3


+


** 




3


+
B% "B

-R

!
3
<





5
-

*3
3 


+

--

*
2

5



2

*








-3

//"


//.




**
<-

1
*
+
+
*

-
  

"






//
%
//"


-
 A



< 


"B
+ 
+
*



 


1
<-
* 




B

5


< 

/B
+ 
+
*

+







+
#
%$#
3



**
<-5


-2
3



"B
* 


?
*
**
*

@



"B
1
*
+
+




-
*
+
+

 5

*
+
+




+

 


5

$

3
#
%$#5

#$$
3
 


4 



 

+


3
5
3

+*

3

+

-


"
*




#$$



<

*
* 

5

A

<




+

<5

* 
<





*
1 
--
*

3
*
-
#
%$#



+

#$$5
1 
--
*
*

+A

+
* 

 
-<


4
  F

 


-
<



+
-<

-


* 
 

 
 
3
2



-
+*


3

+

*








1 
--



+

 


<

4
5
-

+



*-
+
-
*


#$$5



+-






*

3

<

+ 
<

+ 
+
*
*

#
%$#
<  


-

< 





**



*15
*
* 
-

+

* 


*


<
*



*-
+
* 
*
*

*
*
* 
2
#
%$#
( 

< 
+


<

4/.%
45

+
<
D

-



?-<
 @5



<
"B
+*
"B


B
+*

-


#$$

'(
++
-3



5


<




5


+
3

<

+*



*

-
* 

'
3
1

*
**
<
3
+



5

* 


D

++
5
3


3
 
+





3

*
+*



8
1*5
-




*
+
&"B



"B


?-


*
*
+



+3

8
3



4/.
P
4@5


B




3

-


-

#$$

'(
3


B





&B





#

* 

5

+



+*
 *5
<

5



+ 
<*5





*
+




+3

5
-

-
+
>
*

<-



#$$

$(:
$8!,4'(

+



//.%


+

* 
A

 

?
3*
3
<@

3


-+
=


//)
 5

#$$


 *
*


*

<

+

 *

? @
+3






1*

++
+
 *
5
* 
 
3
-
< 
+


"



)
+3




 



3 5

* 
3


+<

<
*
?



@
3

+ 5


 

!


 5

 


 *



 *

3
 


#$$
3



3
3
 *
 
+

%
* 5

3

*


5

*

*
+


 *
A


3
A

8



 5


+

 *


-%* 
+3D

 *


-%* 



 

+
1
+

*5


5

+ 5

<
1
-3

 *



3

*
'-

*


3

*

*



 *



*


*

-
*
+
-

+
+


 *

*
 


+
 
+
<
*
*

+

-
+5


*

+

+
+


+
 *

*
1 

*


+



+
<
15


5
+

<
1


++


-*
35


+


+5
+
-
!G




++


*1*
*

+




*

? +@






 
+*

 


-*
3




 *


*

' *

*
*



*



+
1


3

*
+
**


 


+
-5




*
+

 *

*

5

$112'(






3
-
* 
-

#$$
-


A

5
*
3*
3
<5


<-




5


+3

+







#


5


+


//"
-

+*

+

+

!75

*


<
-3

//"


//.
*

-



3

'
&
"

#$$
 
*
-



+3


-




8






-



#$$
* 
 
+

//.%

B


-


* 





//.%
-<




8
3
?-@

%"B


%B






+*

-
Simulation Period =
1/98 - 12/00
Upper Estuary (Segments 20-25)
Reduction Year 0 Sediments Year 15 Sediments
Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%)
0% 13.10 10.3% 13.10 10.3%
-5% 12.71 9.4% 12.75 9.6%
-10% 12.31 8.5% 12.38 8.7%
-15% 11.88 7.4% 11.99 7.6%
-20% 11.43 6.6% 11.58 6.7%
-25% 10.97 5.6% 11.14 5.8%
-30% 10.48 4.7% 10.68 4.9%
Middle Estuary (Segments 33-38)
Reduction Year 0 Sediments Year 15 Sediments
Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%)
0% 20.08 11.4% 20.11 11.8%
-5% 19.59 9.4% 19.67 9.9%
-10% 19.09 7.7% 19.21 8.1%
-15% 18.56 6.3% 18.72 6.6%
-20% 18.01 5.1% 18.22 5.4%
-25% 17.44 4.0% 17.68 4.2%
-30% 16.84 3.1% 17.12 3.3%
Bend of Estuary(Segments 41-47)
Reduction Year 0 Sediments Year 15 Sediments
Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%) Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%)
0% 21.86 9.8% 21.90 10.0%
-5% 21.43 8.8% 21.50 8.9%
-10% 20.98 7.6% 21.09 7.8%
-15% 20.51 6.1% 20.66 6.2%
-20% 20.01 5.1% 20.20 5.3%
-25% 19.50 4.4% 19.71 4.5%
-30% 18.96 3.7% 19.20 3.8%

8






-3
3

#$$:
 
+

//.%


+*
5

 




<

3

<





//.%
3
3


 
8



8



5

$&
"
7
-3



 
!


*






-

#$$
 
1998-2000 NEEM Exceedance Probabilities
Year 0 Sediments
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Reduction amount
Fr
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

pr
e
d
i
c
t
i
o
n
s

a
b
o
v
e

t
h
e

ch
l

s
t
d

(
%
)
Upper
Middle
Bend
1998-2000 NEEM Exceedance Probabilities
Year 15 Sediments
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Reduction amount
Fr
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

pr
e
d
i
c
t
i
o
n
s

a
b
o
v
e

t
h
e

ch
l

s
t
d

(
%
)
Upper
Middle
Bend

• 
1 
--


-
A






B

$(

 
*) 

#$$
 



 






1 
--
-<

B


-

5

-
 
?


@
3
H

 *5


1 
--
+


 B

, 
H

"
 *
5

-
1 
--



.B


#$$
 
5



*5
 *

3

*<

<


+5

<

 




*



#$$
 



+


+


?
'
@




1 
--


B

-

H



H

"
' *
5

"B



  





3


 5
3



+
-

+ 
+
*



5
3<5





3

 


 !

*
 



 



*

+

3
 
<


-



 


<

+


*




3
 
+

 





*5

*
<


 


!7
3
-





<


3


+
**
?
@


3- 

?
@



+

<




1




<*
+
3
A

  
5

#
$&
"))!

*
*




A


*


4 



//.%


#$$

"B


"B


3

-

 






-
<
-3

//"


//.

8
5

+


//"
-

+*

+

+

!7


*

2
QB
?

*@
+*

5


2
"B
+*


P
Q


*

Q

-3


B
?
'
"@F


5

*
*
+




 
+*


//"
-

+*

+

+

!7

"

B
?"B
+*
)



A

&)

/"@

!
3
<



5
-

*3
3 



+

--

*
2

5



2

*








-3

//"


//.
$"**!*
$&
"



*
+
+
+

#$$5




1*

1 
--
-

"B


+

 



8
1*5


H

"
 *
5

"B


<

//B
1 
--5



B


<

.
B
1 
--


H

 *5

"B


<

/ B
1 
--5



B


<

))B
1 
--



"
E

5


B


<
1 
--
+
."B

.)B


H


H

"
 *5
<



-<
 5
!


B


*


A


*


4 




*
+
+


//.%


#$$



B






//.%
3

-

 






-
<
-3

//"


//.

8
5

+

-

//
%
//"

+*

+

+

!7


*

2
QB
?

*@
+*

5


2

B
+*


P
Q


*

Q

-3


B
?
'
"@F




*
+



+*


//"
-

+*

+

+

!7




&B
?
B
+*
)%


&)

/"@



-
+




*
+


//
%
//"
-
 5

1
*
+
+
+*

#$$

%"B
?&B
%
B


B
%
"B@
5
# ((

3
#
%$#


#$$5
'(
3
 



A


*


4 


( 





-
+*


3

+

*








1 
--
+
'(



+

 


<

4

( 

< 
+


<

4/.%
45

+
+<
D


-



?-<
 @5



<
"B
+*
"B


B
+*

-

'(

#$$
++
-3



5


<




5


+
3

<

+*



*

-
* 

'
3
1

*
**
<
3
+



5

* 


D

++
5
3


3
 
+





3

*
+*



8
1*5
-




*
+
&"B



"B


?-


*
*
+



+3

8
3



4/.
P

4@5


B




3

-


-

#$$

'(
3


B





&B





#

* 

5

+



+*
 *5
<

5



+ 
<*5





*
+




+3

5
-

-
+
>
*

<-


++

+

'(
* 





 


+*
#
,
'
E<



3

<-


* 
<*
+

#$$

#
%$#
$(
1*
1 
--

 

- 






-
< 

-

* 


*

*





< 
+

5
* 

-



 
<






$(:
* 


<-


A

E

3

+*
3
'(5

 
+ 
<


+ 
+
*
*


<-
&
-



'(
* 
 
+

//.%




-


* 



//.%
-<




8
3

P"B


PB






+*

-
Simulation Period = 1/98 - 12/00
Upper Estuary
Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%)
Baseline 13.53 2.42
-5% 13.19 2.17
-10% 12.87 1.42
-15% 12.50 0.99
-20% 12.11 0.63
Middle Estuary
Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%)
Baseline 14.15 0.14
-5% 13.76 0.07
-10% 13.47 0.04
-15% 13.09 0.03
-20% 12.68 0.00
Upper Estuary
Reduction Avg. Chl a (ug/L) Exceedances (%)
Baseline 14.17 0.00
-5% 13.87 0.00
-10% 13.57 0.00
-15% 13.23 0.00
-20% 12.88 0.00
5
#
 (&
"
7
-3



 
!


*






-

'(
 
• 
1 
--


-
A






B

$(

 
*) 
'(
 












1 
--
-<

B

 5

*
*
+



 

B

< 
 



*




#$$

#
%$#



1 
--
 
35

*
5
J<<K
)
 !

*
 



 



*

+

3
 
<


-



 


<

+


*




3
 
+

 





*5

*
<


 


!7
3
-





<


3


+
**
?
@


3- 

?
@



+

<




1




<*
+
3
A

  
5
#
 (&
"))!

*
*




A


*


4 



//.%

'(

B


B


3

-

 






-
<
-3

//"


//.

8
5

+


//"
-

+*

+

+

!7


*

2
QB
?

*@
+*

5


2
B
+*


P
Q


*

Q

-3


B
?
'
"@F




*
*
+




 
+*


//"
-




B
?%B
+*


A

)%
@
$"**!*(&
"
'


 
1 
--
+
'(



B5
!

*


*
+
+

-


+

 
$(5


* 


!5
3

<-



-


A
5
*


//"%
//&




+

 
1 
C3<5



3

* 

'(5


-
 



+
* 






-


!

* 
 
+*
#
%
$#

-<

+*

//



///
?-

+
#
%$#@

//"%
//&







*

*

3

#
%$#

-< 5
* %


 
+

5



3


*



?



@


*






//.%
3

>

+<-


*
+

 
1 
5
+ **,0%,!%
$9(
'&


 

1 
--
-

#$$5
'(

#
%$#5

A






?!7@5
++

*


*
++
-3


* 
D
?
@ #
%$#


* 




1 
--
3

#$$

'(


?
'
"
5



@


<

 5
+
++
3
* 




* 




1 
--
 
-

#$$




-
5
3<5
-


-
* 


+

A
*
+
A


<




*



*
* 
.





23
3

*
*


+*

#$$
3


+


+

3

 
?@ 
#$$


 *

* 

*


*
+
 *
5
3
#
%$#

'(


<

-

#
%$#:
 

+
** 
++
+





* 
 

'(



+
1
+


+*

 *
+






#$$

5




++

*
-3

H



H

"
 *






 

<
5
3

 
3



*
+*
#
%$#

'(
3


+
*
3
3
+
 *






3
 <
**5




*
+


 *
 5

3 
?@ G
#
%$#

-

 


//
%
//"

?#$$

'(


* 

//.%

3*
3
<
 
3




@5
3
!
 

-

 

,*

#
%$#


+*

//
%
//"
3

#
%$#


+*

//.%5
 
+

 



A







*
*
+


//.%

? @

#$$

'(




5

*
+






* 



?D

++
5

'
"@
#
%$#




-3



5

*







*

*
<-
+
2
-
5


+





3



 

<






#
%
$#:
 

*3

-

>



?"@
#
%$#
*
 1


-<



5
3


'

-
B

<




+*

**
<-




 1
?
**
<-@


#
%$#


<<
* 

*



** 


<


#$$

'(
?&@ '(

 



-
#,'E


 




I
-
#,'E


-
*3



 
*

5




-

*
?
"
@
*

5





-




<

3



*

#,'E
* %




3
+

-

++

5



?

*
<
3

+*

+
@
*


+


++


<

!




I



 

5
3<


3

<-



*
+
* 
<*
+

#$$

#
%$#
?)@ '(
* 


*5



3
+

#$$


+
#
%
$#



*
?


@




-
+

*
+

1 




+*
'(


<




$(
< 




*
*



* 

-
5
-







/


++
+

* 
++


3
3

1

3


+*
#
%
$#
+




3
* 
 <
5





+*

#$$

'(
+

 
3
*  



++


A
<
-
3

++
3

++



+*


* 
G



A
<
 
*
3
<3

+



:
 &
"
$"

;!"



-
23 








//.%5

+*

+

*

 

 
1 




+A

+

B

3

$(5


* 
5


-3

//.

5
1 
+


 

E#,%'

#,'E

*



B
+

*




5


-


5




*












+
**

#




8



+*

#






**
++
3
-
I




- 

8

**
+

#






+

;<

<


5

*
-





3



**
++5

+

* 

$ "& 
8
5
%
 
?
//.%@

*


*
-


8



-3

8



G
#
%$#
* 

 
?
//
%
//"@


* 
*

% "B



 

*
3








1*
3

<
+
* 

 

*5

B


+*


//"
-





-

-




2

-

*
+-



(

!7
* 






*



++





-



B




< !9%(%
$"0 ,#4
*)%11'11/,  " "

'<
A
+
**



3




** 

85


*

#
,




>-
+
<

B



#







-
+

**
-
5

<
++


-
* 

*



' 5
-



+





(

* 5

*





*


B



  


3
-
*
< 

3

3
 <
**

'+5

<


-
*

*
+

B






< 5






-
*

*
+




*


-<

*

-



-A

* 
++
?
 

1


* @


 

1


  

*2

+
 


 

* 

5
3
3
-
-




 
5



3 5

3


+


A
 




*




*
3








0 10 20 30 40 50
Percent TN Reduction Required
Neu-BERN w/
dummy
Neu-BERN no
dummy
NEEM
WASP
Neuse TMDL Model Results
1998-2000 Models and 1995-1998 Change



+

!75



3

-
*<
+*


+
*
3


*



85
!
3

2










*
2
*



*

 5






<-



+3


*
2
*

"





B


 5
<
3






B
?'3

5

@
?'
'
"@
2
  "!



-

+*









-


-

<
* 5

A





-

+
**





+
E';':
'(G
?'(
+

G

-
@
* 

-
<
+

#

-



+
-




 
+

-

-








<-
+

!7

'(G

1

-
*



+



!
3
-
<


* 

*

-

*2




**
+

#

!7

G
++




+


+


<
* 





-


+

2



4
<
+
+*

++5
$(%(:
 %-

+





25
3
-

*
*
+

#

'(G
* 
;<

2
+


<
* 5
$(%
0:
** 
+





!7
3

*

-2 3
-3






!
3
< 


*
+


-

+*
5


-2





!7

+3





+

+

!7

#

!7
2 

3
+*
+

!7

 
+*


32

-
+



(
-
(

+


*


*



-

**



+

!7


3


< 

*
** 5
-


32
3
*
-

2
+
-

<
* 



*

)

*5
3

-


 1
5

< 


+*32

3
-

*
+




+*
'(G

<-
2

   



+

#



!7
3


*
-



+

+

!7





-

3
-
D

@

//
%
//"
 

8
3F
@

//"%
//&
 
+*


<F
@
++

*

+*

5
,
(5


(
-3
8
3
3


*

 







F

@

*



*

+






+

+

!75

<
#

+
/&"
*

 



#3



-

+*
3



!7


 

2



$

!7
+




B


+*

-
 


A


B
+

-

+
/&"
*

 


+

!7
+
&)"
*

 



#3

2
  * 0, 
"


3
-
-

* 




-


5





-

+
**






+

+

!75
!
3



-
< 

*
*
+

*

+







<





#15

*
*
+




-





3
-

-
+*


!7


*


3
-






-2

?+

3 5

** 
-

#

2 

P

 1
@


 



<



1
++

3



+

+

!7


3



*
-

+*




5

3

-2

 


<


!75

B


3
-

-
+*








-
 F


+*

-2


3

-
1



 
-2



?


!7@
3
-
A

+*









-






+*32
3
-
1





+3


//"
3



-

-

+
3

!7

- 
2

 (
8


5


//"

3
*
-
+



 %+%


-



+3




-*
-

33
*


8

*
+5
3



3

<-



< 
3

?**


1
+


@5


3

*

-
A




*45

<

+

*
+


-









 %+%
+

+
3





*
+

 


+*
*
<
+3



+
*

3

<-5
<-

3
<
<
A

 

1

3

*


+


+*

*>
+

3







3







* 



+



<


*


-



+5
3


<
+
-<-





8


* 


+


5






*


<




!

<

 


+


* 
+

&
*>
? 
+3



"
*


@





#

<



#3




* 5

<



*

-

+

+


+



3

-5

*
<
-3






5




3











* 

-

*


+*

*>






5


8

?8@


;'
*



+
 

A




*


+

3

32

-
-

+3
A
D
(
#
<
L

N
W
2
L

++




+



*


+



L
*
+
<
+*

*







8

* 
5

3

*


<
3
A
<


.
*






-


<

*

-




E'
;
'
<

5

-

!

?'25

//&@



!
5

 >




*
*



-


+
+


-3
+3

<


+


+






<


<






<
<

-


3

*
<
+
+




#

-








**
 5


34
 


3
+



-


'
**
+
0
?
*

@
Station name Low Flow High Flow
Nahunta Swamp 8.0 12.8
Crabtree Creek 14.1 19.3
Neuse (Smithfield) 18.3 24.1
Neuse (Ft. Barnwell) 13.3 23.4
8*


*-

3

*




.
*


3

-
-


* 
-



+

*>


5


-+
+
2

* 
*

<

3


* 
 

*

*
<






<
? 5

@





+

+

!7
3

*

-

5
3
3
-



<


'

3
+*
<





+
-
!





E#,%,
C




+
+


#

-


+




#




3


<

+*
*




1




,2

?H

5

//5

9

5

//.@


+

3





2
++
+
#

-


+

#

**


3


5
+

*
5

 -
3






+


?'
-



 1
@

-


#3
9



 
* 
Neuse Tributaries Kw = 0.40 Kc = 0.10
Neuse Mainstem Kw = 0.03 Kc = 0.01
Contentnea Cr. Kw = 0.10 Kc = 0.05 (assumed)
Kw = May-Oct Kc = Nov-Mar
 5





--





-


3

*






$


+*


*
*
-
-
-

-

*




*
-
+


+

+3

+3
<

 
* 
  





+*

*>






5
1
+

-<
8
72

8


*>

-<
8
725
."B

3

*
+

2
?

+

+
!7@5

+*



3








* 


 
* 
 D

@






 

F

@

<



*
+*







F

@

3*







+
-



#

**F

@
*
+
<
-

*





.
*


<

*
+
3






 
* 


3

*

<


*







+

!75







*>

<
*




-

+*
).5
-4



5
-4

*
-
-<
*

1*

*

 


+




+*




<

#3
F

3
-

-




*-
=!()

*
+



 


5





-

+
**



(*5



-


-
* 
3



+

?

3@5


++

+
5

 



+

*


'(G
3
-
-


*5

+



3
-

-
+
<

+

**



*>


+



 



* 



*
D

@


-

+

*
*


+
+

?


*-



-@5

*
+



* 


?
 1
@5




F

@

*
+
<
-

+


<

*
"
2



*
+






-2

-
+3

*
*


+

+

!7


-
1








//.%
///
'(G47 
)
$

<

<
-
$(%(
?7


5

@







+

-

?
//"@5


 

<
*

-

5

3
-

<5



//
7,

<


3



+


 5
3 
3
-

+*
+

 

1





*
+
 

-


2
'



*

+

!75

*
3
-



 <








3


3
*
-
JK

J-2
 K
 
("
'



-

1*

*

 
+



5



3


-
++

-


* 
+

-


&
*

 


?/&"
P

*

 

@

 



-






-2

-
5

<
*

1
++
3


*

*

+




+
3
+*



4
<


1
++


-


-

*

+


<

<



?+
@




-


1
++
+

<
+*

1*
+


+
*
*
2
<


+
*







*-
1

*44*

1
++
<
-




?!

5

//@
3



-
+
*
1


1
++
+
*

3
 


<-
+*

#
*
!
(*
?#,$,5

//)@

-

"


1
++
-

"

$1
++


#
 


?
-4%@
Land Use Export Coefficient
Urban 8.06
Cultivated 13.56
Mgd. Herbaceous 4.37
Forest 1.72
Open Water 8.75





 

-
-
 5

<
 5
*
-


?*


4

/.%//

<@


3
?*
@5
3
+

3 

 

-
-2



 
3
-
 

1
I




*



-


2
&
-

&



//.%
///
'(G47 
)
$

<
< 

+<
*>

Land cover (acres) %
Urban 485,301 14%
Cultivated 641,807 18%
Herbaceous 414,101 12%
Forest 1,381,454 38%
Wetland 513,593 14%
Open Water 154,943 4%
Total 3,591,199 100%



1
++

-

"


<

-

&5
!
*
+

-
 

*

 



-

-

)
-

)

$*
#

7
+
#

<

?*

 

@
Baseline TN Loads by General Source
Point 3.32
Nonpoint 5.50
Background 0.83
Total 9.65
2

#  0, (

'
3


1



+*

-2

 5


+*



3


-
<
3

 


2 

+*32
?
 1
@5






-
<
-










-




//"
-
 






5

<


!7
+
&)"
*

 5

-2





*
+*
"/
*

 
?!7
+
&)"
*


*

-2

.
*

 @

+


<




*
-

3

-

)5


3

-

.




?

-3
-

.@
-

.

!7

-3
5


-2




?

+3@
TMDL Allocation (million lbs./year)
Point 2.23
Nonpoint 3.69
Background 0.83
Total 6.75
)
(
'

7
L
?4?
S
""@@T?"/@
L

*
-
#
'

7 L
?""4?
S
""@@T?"/@
L
&/
*
-
2

7 L
.
*
-
1
 ))! 

 

-
<


<*
+



!7
+

#

<

5

A
5



<
-
 
+
+*





-

'
+
#
,


2 


#

-

!

<
-
 
+
+*
*


!75

*



+






!



3
3


1

3
32





*

+



 


D

@



-

#
%$#
P

-
 
+


*
F
*



!




-
A



?
#$$

'(
 



-






A
+-@F

@



*-


+




-3

//"


//.
P



*


 

<+


*


-F

@
3
 *

3
++


-

+*

 *
P



*

*
3


F

@


-

-
*>




-


-A



P

-
*
'(G5



*

* 
3
 
 <




*


-

3



-

-<
**

*

2 5

5
$(

!

3

-




* 


 

*2
+

!7


#

!7
2 
<
<

-


+


+*325


3
<




** 

+

!7
#
,

<


-
+*32

3

-

!7






-<



3



-


-
+

<< 

!



<<





<

1
 $"

*


#


5


1<


<




A
5



+
*
I

8



?E#,%'5

5
#,'E

!@
*






*

++

A

+


!

32

  I


* 
.

!
-

-*

<




*
<
-
+ 


3
+*






*
1
3

+



< 
*

I
*



<
-
1
 ) )

#




+

B



-

*





!7
A
<







*
5


3
*

 

*
+

'(G
* 


'(G
* 
3
< 

-
 
*
+



-


2 

+*32
** 
? 1




!7@



5
3
3


<

2 



+*32


-
 
*


2 
<
2


32
-
 

*5



<+



+*

'(G
* 



*


+*32







1

'(G




5


2 


+

32


+
'(G:
*



*5
!
3
32
3

$<*
*
,**
?$,@

*
3

3

3
-
** 5


3
*
+*

 (, (

#

!7
2 

3
+*

'*-






+

#



!7



<<
+*



+
#

2 
3
3
2
+*
+

 
>

3
 <
 


*


+

2 

3

+


+
3
-
+



?
@


-
-

*
++


+

?5


5


5
-
*3

++@

++



3 

!



2 






3



 <



!7


3
-
+3 

$(

*-
+

2 



-
+

32
+
* 






<3


3

* 



!
7


5

+

**-
+*

#
'
+

$<*

$
'

!
2
E<5
+

2 
*

#

!7
2 

*
-

"
 <

3


-

*
+



<*
 <5
*
5
+*5

5

<*


'
 1

+


+



#

 4!7
2 


!








<





 

3


-
++
-


*


3


++


*


3
*


I
+



*
*



3
<
5


3

*:
 


+

<-
*





3



3


-
  

$
+

2 







-5

-<
3



 
/
*%

+
3


<
-





5

2 

 


+3D
• (


 



• 


*
3

2
2
• 

+

2 
• 


-

• 




• 
*





+






3

-

*
-3
'*-






!
 


2 
3

<


 <



!7:

5

!

$(
*


3

-
-

**


* 




<

!7


-A

*



 




-%**
+
2 
3
3



*

* 
*

!
+*


-%**


*


+

* 
*
3

+
**

*
!5
$(





C3<5

2 
3
3*



3



1







-**
+

2 
 
+

+

#

* 
*
-3
=







$


5

-*



 
3

-

*
 





  







 

3

-*F
5

3

-



-+
 5



-



3
< 5





 


35
3

3



-
 

$<
I


 
*

-




*5
-



2 

3

**


 A



+







3




3

2
2





+
-2



 


**
+
+

 




+*
,2
:
**



7

'

!7
3


1*
)

2 

* 

** 


'


+*
+


** 

*

3
*
-

+



*
*
-


 1




*



+*32
+


!7
*






+

#

-5
-

<


*
+*

+



-
*



G




+
**


A

+



  



+




* 



5





<
+*
++



++



-5

2 
<3



<
*


*

*






*


5
-




*
+
"
*


<
2 
 
<

+




*

-





3

2 


+





-
-
+*
-


+*


<
* 


 3
'*
2 
3


-





I


+


<
* 


2 
3




<





+


<

5




-*
<-
"

&* 
5





(
**

 5
C



E 


+*
(
E<
35
=!5

=
C*




#

<

U






 D
 






*


* 
E#,





5
#
,
'
E<5

35
=!

//.%


(
**


25
$

///%


(
**

25
5



J
73
#


D


+

*
+




33
K

C 




#

G!G#4!7
'2 
;
5
4/4

! 5
,

;


//


(


4(
'


P
(

D


<
#







5


(25
#,
9


?
//.@
7*

G5
D
 
7
5
'5
=
$ 32*5
=
*5
!
=5
=;
75

935

!
(5



A
<
<

+

*
%
 %<
+
+

#

<
-5
#
,5
E'


=

;'5

<3
'25
('

//&

!
**

J#

<

 
 
0
'
**
'K
'35
,5

$

25

#

<
$

 


(>
'

D

1*
+
7
*
#

!


#

<
 







#
"%$
'35
,5
$

25

!
'5


7%*


3





<
1


#

<5
#
,


"
?&@D

./%
//
'35
,



(
**

H


?
//@

$
(
'5
/D

")
"
.
>)*VW!< 5?:?

6* !


E#,:
+



,-
,25
#

'3*5

'*+

8
3


#

<
?
-3@

+3

)
-<
+

?+*




 


@D
,
L

5

L
3*

,-
,2
?-<
(

+3@
,D )

**
*



L

?S


+@
D
)

J 
L

?S


#!@
,-
,2
?-3

+3@
,D &
**
*



L

D
"

J 
L

?S


#!@
#

<
?'*+ @
,D &
**
*

L

D )

J 
L

#

'3*
,D )

**
*

L

D


J 
L
"
#

<
?8
3@
,D
"
**
*

L

D 

J 
L

,
?@D
 &) 
L


 
&

?@D

" 
L

.
  /.
"
>  
9
L
? #4?V#GWT @@
!

? #@



+D **
*


V#GW



+D
*47



**4*
<
+
+
V#GWD


L


**4*
L


*47




*
P
*
+*
#



5
,-


-<

#

'3*
<
V#G
S
#GW

+*

//"%
!
*-

?

>

V#GW@
,
 
V#GW


*47 ? 


/@
!


*

3*
*

"
*


*
9


&
**4*T

3*
*

)
**4*T


*
9F
L
?)
**4*T @4?

T"
*@
L


9Z
L
?
&
**4*T @4?

T
*@
L
.
)%* 
 
V#GW

/
*47 ? 


/@
!

.
*

3*
*



*


*
9


"
**4*T

3*
*

)
**4*T


*
9F
L
?)
**4*T @4?&"
T

*@
L


9Z
L
?
"
**4*T @4?&"
T.
*@
L


%
(--

 :



+








3*
3
3






 
V#GW



*47
? 

+

@

7
*
?@

&.
*47
? 

+

@

C2
E
++
-3
*


*47
!



*



?
* 5
-


:
@
9


"
**4*T

3*
*

.
**4*T


*
9F
L
?.
**4*T @4?
T

*@
L

9Z
L
?
"
**4*T @4?
T

*@
L

0
 
V#GW

)

*47
? 

+

@
!


"
*

3*
*


*


*
9


"
**4*T

3*
*


"
**4*T


*
9F
L
?
"
**4*T @4?"

T
*@
L

"
"
9Z
L
?
"
**4*T @4?"

T
"
*@
L


,-



**





-




<


3

<


2
+




+
!7

#



>&" ,!@
#

-
 93
L
 9
L


#

* 93
L
 9
L


, 93
L

9
L
" ?
* @
*)$ 95?:?


+


 *
+*

#

<
*
*

-

' !*

?X,@
#
?µ@
!+

?**
*
@ 

,-
,2
?-<

+3@
%.%
'2'A
&%&%
&%&%

%
/%

%
/%
"%.%

"%.%

"%.%


""
:

 
 



/

/

/





.
/


.
/
2

/
 /

 .
#!


(
(

(
(
'
'
(
'
'
,-
,2
?-3

+3@
%.%
%.%
&%&%

%
/%

%
/%
"%.%

"%.%

"%.%


""
)
 



/"

/"

/"






.
)


&
&&
/&

#!


&"
(
(
(
'
'
(
'
'
'*+
%
/%

%
/%
"%.%

"%.%

"%.%






"/
&)
""
.
)/
/





'
'
(
'
'
""
#

'3* "%%
"%%

%
/%

%
/%
"%.%

"%.%

"%.%


)

)



."

."

."
&&
&&
&
&

)
/&


&
"/
.&

/&

&
/
(
(
'
'
(
'
'
8
3
%
/%


%
/%

"%.%

"%.%

"%.%






.&
&

.
/




'
'
(
'
'
T
(
L


A
F
'
L
**-

*
*
#!
L
-3

*




*

A%
*
3*

)R&
-
P




2
*
+
,-
,
"&
.
REPORT FROM THE NEUSE TMDL STAKEHOLDERS’ GROUP TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA DIVISION OF WATER QUALITY – JUNE 2001
This interim report presents the stakeholder group’s conceptual framework and
guiding principles for allocating the total maximum daily load (TMDL) of nitrogen
that may be required in the Neuse River basin. It includes a tentative allocation
strategy, along with some principles for implementation and some comments on the
TMDL process. The allocation strategy has been developed under the assumption
that any future TMDL will be applicable to both point and non-point sources. The
framework presented here represents a general consensus of the group; however,
this does not imply that every stakeholder agrees with every statement.
Furthermore, this consensus should be considered tentative, pending stakeholders’
review of additional watershed and estuary modeling results that were not available
for consideration prior to preparation of this report.
There are two reasons for the interim nature of this document, one short-term and
one longer-term: (1) The stakeholders’ group has not yet seen the results of
watershed loading models, such as SPARROW, on which numerical estimates of
loads from various sources are to be based. Also, the stakeholders’ group has not
had a chance to review all of the estuary response models (especially WASP/EFDC)
and their roles in developing the TMDL. This information, plus documentation,
should be available within the next several months, and the stakeholders wish to
review these materials as they become available and perhaps modify the framework
presented here in light of these new results. (2) Even with these additional
modeling results, there will be considerable uncertainty regarding the reductions in
nitrogen necessary to improve water quality in the Neuse estuary. The stakeholders
urge the regulatory agencies to use an adaptive approach to reducing nitrogen, as
described under Principles for Implementation, part II.7, and to continue the
modeling and monitoring necessary to support such an approach.
I. Interim framework for allocating responsibility for meeting TMDL among
sources and among geographic regions:
A. Calculation of N loading for purposes of determining the 1995 baseline
load, the TMDL and required reductions in N will be based on load
delivered to the estuary, as estimated by N delivery models, such as
SPARROW, that account for transformation and transport of N as it
moves down the watershed.
B. Sources will be divided into two categories: (1) those from which little or no
reduction is expected, and (2) remaining sources, among which reductions
will be allocated to meet the TMDL.
1. Sources where little or no reduction is expected:
a. Forests
")
b. Wetlands
2. Sources for reduction allocation (in no particular order of priority):
a. Point
b. Nonpoint
i. Atmospheric
ii. Terrestrial
• Onsite wastewater
• Stormwater
• Urban
• Rural
• Fertilized land
• Urban – golf courses, lawns
• Rural – crops, pasture
• Animals/livestock
C. The reductions necessary to achieve the TMDL will be allocated among the
sources listed under 2 above in proportion to their contributions to the 1995
baseline loading to the estuary (which will account for differential rates of
transport of N from sources in different parts of the watershed).
D. Since this plan does not allocate any part of the TMDL for future growth
or changes in land use in the basin, any future activities that result in a net
increase in N must be offset by a corresponding reduction in N loading from
existing sources.
II. Principles for implementation (not in any order of priority)
A. Full participation
The stakeholders’ group has designated some sources as those from which
little or no reduction is expected and recognizes that there will be many other
sources that will have no specific numeral reduction targets upon
implementation. Nevertheless, the group wants to stress the importance of
widespread participation in N reduction efforts from all sources in all parts of
the watershed. Both existing and newly developed programs to provide
incentives, technical assistance, and monitoring to secure reductions from
sources with no mandated reductions are essential. For example, although
forestland does not have a required reduction target, forest management
should conform to applicable BMP’s and Forest Practices Guidelines. In
addition, new guidelines and additional monitoring to verify compliance with
".
forest BMP’s are needed. In a similar vein, sufficient funds from state and
federal sources to monitor compliance with BMPs and practice guidelines for
other land uses, such as roads and construction sites, are required. Incentive
systems, technical assistance and monitoring will help improve performance
of onsite wastewater systems in both urban and rural areas. Public education
to alert citizens in all parts of the watershed to their contributions to
nitrogen loading as they manage their homes, lawns, pets, and vehicles will
encourage widespread participation.
B. Equity
Equitable treatment of different sources and of different regions of the
watershed is a principle the stakeholders’ group has tried to follow
throughout this allocation draft. Implementation strategies should consider
the same principle because some strategies that are desirable from the
standpoint of cost-effectiveness could compromise equity. For example, cost-
effective N reduction using nutrient trading could change the distribution of
land uses in the lower watershed toward those taxed at lower rates, with
financial consequences for municipalities and counties there.
C. Cost effectiveness
The costs of achieving a given level of reduction in N loading at the estuary
vary enormously among different regions of the watershed and among
different types of sources. We believe that implementation programs that
achieve a given level of N reduction at the least cost are the way to do the
most for water quality improvement with the fewest unwanted side effects. A
flexible nutrient trading scheme, allowing trades among unlike sources and
among different regions of the watershed, will be essential to making N
reductions cost-effectively. The configuration of sources in the Neuse, with
large point sources upstream and large nonpoint sources downstream, is
unusual among coastal watersheds, and trading schemes that have been
proposed for watersheds such as the Long Island Sound may not work
appropriately here. Exchange ratios should include factors such as
transformation and transport of N downstream, uncertainty about levels of
reduction achieved by nonpoint sources, and, possibly, different levels of
biological effect from different N species. Even where nutrient trading is not
the mechanism for achieving cost-effectiveness, implementation programs
should pursue reductions first from those sources where the greatest
improvements can be had with the least overall cost (including those that
may be difficult to express in monetary terms).
D. Fiscal rationality
Meeting the TMDL may require new expenditures from both public and
private entities. All parties must begin right away to plan how to meet these
new financial demands. It is unreasonable to expect water quality to change
without new inputs of both public and private funds.
"/
E. Avoidance of unintended negative consequences
N reduction schemes could have unintended negative consequences. For
example, nutrient trades in which upstream point sources accomplish part of
their N reduction by removing downstream agricultural land from production
(perhaps in a conservation reserve program) could change the economic and
the cultural character of downstream communities. Regulatory strategies
that apply only to some jurisdictions within the watershed could shift
development into unregulated areas, perhaps offsetting expected nitrogen
reductions. Those designing implementation strategies should make every
effort to foresee such consequences, and, where they occur unexpectedly,
make provisions to mitigate unintended negative effects.
F. Stability/predictability
Many stakeholders are being required to meet a constantly changing array of
regulations, and they value a more predictable operating environment. The
stakeholders’ group recognizes that this desire for stability of regulatory
expectations may conflict with otherwise advantageous adaptive approaches
to water quality management. Considering that current regulatory decisions
are being made under a great deal of uncertainty about the effects of N
reduction on water quality, the ability to monitor effects as reductions are
implemented, and then make changes if the results are not what was
expected, would be helpful. Stakeholders recognize that such an adaptive
approach would be welcome if it allows more targeted, and thus more cost-
effective, reductions; however, they fear being subject to new, frequently
changing, and unexpected regulatory requirements or unintended negative
consequences.
G. Monitoring and adaptability of regulatory approach
The stakeholders’ group recognizes that more effort has gone into water
quality monitoring and modeling in support of the Neuse TMDL process than
for most other such regulatory efforts. The group also recognizes the need to
take action based on the best synthesis that can be made from the predictive
tools and data available currently. Nevertheless, the group is concerned that,
even after the results from the watershed and estuary modeling and data
analysis that will be completed over the next several months have been
incorporated in the TMDL, substantial uncertainty will still remain.
Limitations in current scientific understanding of nutrient dynamics in the
Neuse could lead to regulations that are either more stringent than needed to
meet desired water quality standards (at greater cost to private and public
entities than is warranted) or too lax to accomplish the desired
improvements. A few examples of the specific concerns about the scientific
basis for TMDL decisions are: lack of water quality and flow monitoring
stations well-distributed throughout the basin, particularly deficiencies in
coastal plain data; inconsistencies in methods for water quality sampling and
analysis; emphasis on total nitrogen, rather than on forms with differing
biological activity; use of different time periods for calibration and validation
&
of the various models that are being developed, especially in relation to the
time periods used for regulatory decisions; and model simplifications, such as
limited representation of sediment processes.
As a consequence of these limitations, there may be extra uncertainty and
error in the model predictions that are being used to set the TMDL and
determine an allocation strategy. The stakeholders urge regulatory decision
makers to recognize the uncertainty surrounding their recommendations by
taking an adaptive approach to modifying those regulations in the future.
The regulatory framework should be flexible enough to respond with new
recommendations for water quality management, as new data and models
suggest. Stakeholders want to be sure that a monitoring design is put in
place that will supply data needed to assess the effectiveness of actions
already taken and to improve the models that will be used to make future
regulatory decisions. A number of stakeholders have been involved with the
technical aspects of water quality modeling and monitoring and have specific
suggestions that should be heard before a more comprehensive water quality
monitoring scheme is put in place. Stakeholders wish to continue to be
involved in reviewing monitoring data and modeling efforts based on those
data.
III. Reservations about use of the chlorophyll a standard for regulatory decisions
Some stakeholders were concerned about the way the chlorophyll a standard is
being used in the TMDL process. Stakeholders are asking: Is chlorophyll a the
right measure to use for setting water quality regulations? If so, is the current
standard (fewer than 10% exceedances of 40 ug/l) set at the right level? Is it
appropriate to base standards for an estuary on observations taken in inland
lakes? Is it clear how to implement the standard, in terms of where and when
chlorophyll a is to be measured; is the implementation consistent with how the
standard was developed? Has variability in time and space, and particularly
between seasons, been accounted for properly in the standard? Are the right
field and laboratory procedures for assessing chlorophyll a levels being
followed? Is there a way to draw a closer connection between chlorophyll and
the biological endpoints (e.g., algal blooms, fish kills, fish health) that are more
directly meaningful to stakeholders? In the future, other parameters besides
chlorophyll might be used to measure improvement in water quality resulting
from nitrogen reduction; dissolved oxygen and direct measurement of various
nitrogen species are possible candidates.
&

.
*

$;% (
=??
8D
7



(+
+

( (D ?/
/@
&
%.
#
'
+

$<* 81D ?/
/@
&. %.)

!
2
E< $*D *
Y
2

1
/.
!
*5
#,

)).
(*
<D
9
23
!5
 (D
?/
/@
"
"%.
"





 81D ?/
/@
"
"%./
#
,
'
E<
$*D 2M23Y


,*

1
)/

5
#,

)&/"
,

$<*
  (D
?/
/@
)%".
1"&
!
%
(7###; 81D ?/
/@
)%//
/
#,
!$#
$*D
Y*

&
)

'<
,
5
#,

)&//%
&
)
*



$ (D ?/
/@
."&% "
1

E'
8
6
 +
'< 81D
?/
/@
."&% ""&
(G
1
)& $*D *M

Y+3<
5
#,
)&&%)&
;

!5
73
#

< (D ?"@
& %...
(G
!3
, 81D ?"@
&)%)"

#3
5
#,

."& $*D -Y3

&
#2
2-
#,
,
(  (D ?"@
&%)./
,
,<
 81D ?"@ &
/


"
"
3 
!< $*D >-Y
#3
5
#,
."&


2
73
#


 (D ?/
/@
))%&&"&4?"@
" %/)&&
(G
1
))&
81D ?"@
" %//
!
*5
#,
)) $*D *<-Y2
-
,
-

,
$ (D
?"@
&)% )
(G
1
 /& 81D

?"@
&)%

#3
5
#,

."& $*D

*Y*

,
#,
8*



8  (D ?/
/@
)..%
"
(G
1
))&& 81D ?/
/@
).%"/
5
#,

)&

$*D
+Y+-*
=
,1
,<
$ (D ?/
/@
"&% &
1.
!*
+
(
-
2 81D ?/
/@
"&% 
&
%'*3
'< $*D >1Y
*

,
+
!
*
!
*5
#,

))

!
,
!
+
(
-
E (D ?/
/@
./% 
,
+
 81D ?/
/@
./%&
(G
1
"/ $*D  Y%
5
#,

)&
=*
,
**
#,
!*
+


 (D

?/
/@
)%)
"
$*D

>*
**Y*
(
!<



(>
! (D ?/
/@
"".%//

=
,

+
;<* 81D ?/
/@
" /%//
(G
1

)& $*D  <Y>


(25
#,

))/
&

!
<
$<*
!+ (D
?/
/@
..
%&

"


 
 81D
?/
/@
..
%&)
5
#,

)&) $*D *
<Y<* +
(
$
,*
'8 (D

?"@
 /%


)
'8
  81D
5
#,

."
 $*D

Y
%+
-
C
;*
#('
(

(*
,  (D ?/
/@
)
"%


G%'
3
'5
!$# 81D ?/
/@
)
"%)
!<
+
$<*
C $*D --*Y*

& 

'<
,
5
#,
)&//%
& 
=
C 
#,
(2
,
 (D ?/
/@
).
%&


1
 
! 81D
'

  $*D  3+Y*
5
#,

)&)
(
C3 (D

?/
/@
. %/ "/

+
:
 $*D

3 Y*
;
C

'
,<
(D /
/% "%)"
G
'


,<
! 81D /
/%)%)""/
(G
1
.
.
$*D %
Y 
C-
5
#,

)).
=
7
(*
,
$<
C (D

?"@
) "%"&
$*D

 Y*

7-


,* (D ?"@
&%)"


1

/
81D ?"@
&%)&
#3
5
#,

."& $*D *-Y3
*
!
7
  
$<*
E
'
(D ?/
/@
)%/
G
$ 81D ?/
/@
)%/.

#,
!G4$E $*D Y 



'

*
'
5
#,

)&


&
;

$1
<
! (D
%...%&/"%


+
,

+
#, 81D
(G
1
./
$*D **Y*
'

(5
#,

...
7

$1
<
! (D

?/
/@
"".%)
E
#

<

 -D
?/
/@
) %) /

(G
1

)& 81D ?/
/@
" /%//


(25
#,

))/ $*D *Y>
!
 3
'*3
 (D

?"@
&&% 
,
+
#3
 $*D

* 3 Y3-%

2
2
E'
$(

0 (D ?  @
"&%/

*
!< 81D ?  @
"&%/
&

8
'5
' $*D *2
2 Y<
5
;

%./"
#


7-- (D ?/
/@
./%
,<
,

+
#, 81D
(G
1

&)
$*D *
 Y* *
5
#,

)&"
9

G
+
#,,

5

6
$ (D

?/
/@
/.
% 

+
, 81D ?/
/@
/.
% 
(G
!3

/)& $*D 2Y*
*
5
#,

)&
/
!
G*

(+

$1
' (D
?/
/@
"
"%)
#,'E 81D
?/
/@
"
"%) /
!
+
'
' $*D
M* Y


1
)&
/
5
#,
)&/"%)&
/
&"
,
(
(
! (D

?/
/@
)
%
&"

,
 $*D

Y*
(G
1
)
; -5
#,

)"
$

!

! (D ?/
/@
)
"%./
#,

+
,

,** 81D ?/
/@
)%
&"
(G
1

.. $*D Y
5
#,

)&%
..


!
+
$<*

 (D ?/
/@
"&% .

,
+
!
* 81D ?/
/@
"&% )/

&
2
!< $*D Y
*

!
*5
#,

))

'*
$1
<
! (D ?"@
&)%)/)
#

<
8
  81D ?"@
"
%"

(G
1

" "
$*D *Y
<
#3
5
#,

."&

-
'
*
#,
8
 (D ?/
/@
. %/ 

&
;3
<
 81D ?/
/@
.%&
..
5
#,

)&

$*D 3
*Y+
'
'<
,
+
9 (D
?"@
//%.
'*3
$
(G
!3
/ $*D <Y2

95
#,

."
(

*
!
+
$<*
( (D ?/
/@
)
"%/
#,
7

+

 81D ?/
/@
)%/"
/
(G
1
&/ $*D *Y*
5
#,

)&
&&
=
3
C
E5
 (D ?/
/@
&)%)."
(G
1
../ 81D ?/
/@
&%
)..
,5
#,
)"
/ $*D >3 Y
*
(

*
#,
C*-
 
5
 (D ?/
/@
&)&%//
(G
1
/// 81D ?/
/@
&)&% 
5
#,

)& %// $*D 3*Y-

 3
#

$

* (D ?/
/@
"%


2
,

$1
, 81D ?/
/@
"%
/)
#,
,<
$1
'< $*D *3 3 Y32

,
+




7+
'

%$
,
!<
5
#,

)&
%/


<D
#

<
8
 D
C

E
#

G
! (D ?/
/@
."&%

.



'



' 81D ?/
/@
."&%

.
5
#,

)&
$*D +Y* *
#,
8*



8 D

(
P

VW
 (D ?/
/@
)..%

(G
1
))&& 81D ?/
/@
).%"/
5
#,

))%)& $*D *Y+-*
,
73 
P
QG
 (D ?/
/@
)..%

&
(G
1
))&& 81D ?/
/@
).%"/
5
#,

))%)& $*D 3 3Y+-*
73
#

<D
82
'++ (D ?"@
&)%"")


'*5
( 81D ?"@
&)%" ))



,
,
 $*D +Y3  **
#3
5
#,

."&
&)
G%'
3
'5
!$#D
'<
'-2 (D ?/
/@
)
"%)
!<
+
$<*
C 81D ?/
/@
)
"%)

& 

'<
, $*D
<-2Y*
5
#,
)&//%
& 
$<*
!+
=

2 (D ?/
/@
..
%&

"


 
 5
'

 81D ?/
/@
..
%&)
5
#,
)&) $*D >
2Y<* +
,
+
!
*

+
P

VW
 (D ?/
/@
"&% ."
,
+
!
* 81D ?/
/@
"&% )/

&
2
!< $*D 3+ Y
*

!
*5
#,

))
'


-2
P
QG
 (D ?/
/@
"&% .

,
+
!
* 81D ?/
/@
"&% )/

&
2
!< $*D 
-2Y
*

!
*5
#,

))

+
,

+
#,
,
(2 (D ?/
/@
"
"%)&
"
(+
+
,
' 81D ?/
/@
"
"%)/"/
#
,
'
E< $*D
M2Y


,*

1
)&
5
#,

)&/"
,
+


;- (D ?/
/@
./% 
,
+
 81D ?/
/@
./%&
(
-
E
!* $*D -**Y%
(G
1
"/
5
#,

)&
C
E
=
'2 ( ?/
/@
&)%.)

1


9
,
 81D
,5
#,

)"

$*D =2Y
*
'
7



 (D

?/
/@
)/%/&
#,, $*D

Y
*
&.
+*
%7D
!
,1
'
<
G
,

'


(D ?/
/@
)%/"

,<
! 81D ?/
/@
"&%./


)


 

 $*D
$+ 5
#,

) %/&)
'
C
E'
*
,
+
$ (D ?/
@
"
%

(G
1

./ 81D
*5
#,
. %
./ $*D+Y3
**
2

2
#
'
+

$<* (D
?/
/@
&
%."
!
2
E< 81D ?/
/@
&
%.)

1
/. $*D *-&Y
2

!
*5
#,

)).%.
;

E'
$(

0 (D ?  @
"&%/

*
!< 81D ?  @
"&%/
&

8
'5
' $*D *Y<
5
;

%./"