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Home My WebLink About2023_Mar6 Respec NeuseRiverModel_StakeholderKickoffMeetingMarch 6, 2023 Neuse River Watershed Modeling KICK-OFF Meeting RESPEC.COM agenda ›Introduce RESPEC Team ›Project Overview / General Timeline ›Current Progress ›Data Needs ›Next Steps ›Discussion/Questions RESPEC.COM 2 RESPEC TEAM ›Principal-In-Charge –RUSSEL Persyn ›Project Manager –Seth Kenner ›QA/QC Officer –Paul Duda ›Modeling Team ⁄Chris Lupo ⁄Cindie Kirby ⁄Paul Hummel 5 Project Review ›Model Selection Memo and Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) Drafts Complete ›Simulation Plan/Model Configuration Tasks and Report ⁄Determine data sources and acquire spatial and timeseries data ⁄Process timeseries data •Meteorological •Atmospheric deposition •Point sources •Observed flow, snow, and water quality ⁄Develop model application •Delineation of subwatersheds and reaches •Landuse/Source Characterization •Function Tables ›Model Calibration, Validation, and Final Report ⁄Model calibration and validation ⁄SAM application •Used for source loads, transport zones, delivery factors, and other analysis RESPEC.COM 6 Project Overview ›Schedule 7 Current Progress –Model Selection ›Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran ⁄Vetted for over 40 Years ⁄Core watershed model in US-EPA BASINS and US ACE Watershed Modeling System ⁄Capable of continuous hourly simulation ⁄Represents multi-land use watersheds ⁄Works for multiple pollutants (sediment, nutrients, dissolved oxygen, etc.) ⁄Represents surface, subsurface, stream, and lake hydrology and water-quality processes,including point sources ⁄RESPEC modeling team •Over 50 years of experience •Hundreds of model applications RESPEC.COM 8 HSPF Model Calibrated Parameters ⁄Hydrology ⁄Sediment ⁄Temperature ⁄Dissolved oxygen ⁄Phosphorus Species ⁄Nitrogen Species Current Progress –Model Development 9 Cropland Barren UrbanForestPastures Overland Flow Interflow •Precipitation •Air Temperature •Evaporation •Solar Radiation •Cloud Cover •Wind •Dew Point Model Land Covers and Soils Point Sources In-Stream Processes -Nutrient Cycling -Fate and Transport Model Parameterization: Infiltration Cover Shade Upper/lower zone storage Groundwater recession Ice parameters Interception storage Interflow Manning’s n Vegetation CLimate BMP Module Implementation Plan Model Development ›Data Collection ›Watershed Segmentation/Delineation ›Watershed Characterization ›Calibration and Validation ›Model Applications 10 RESPEC.COM data Collection -Completed Sources ›Meteorological Data ⁄PRISM ⁄NLDAS ›Atmospheric Deposition ⁄NADP ⁄CASTNET ›Discharge ⁄USGS NWIS ›Water Quality ⁄USGS NWIS (from wq portal) 11 ›Land Cover ⁄NLCD 2019 ›Soils ⁄SSURGO ›Cropland ⁄NASS Crop Data Layer ›Feedlots ⁄State Layer ›MS4s ⁄STate Layer ›Septics ⁄State Sewered Areas ⁄Census Spatial Data ›Watersheds ⁄NHD Plus V2 ›Flowlines ⁄NHD PLUS HIGH RES ⁄Local Data ›Elevation/slope ⁄USGS 3De ›Cross Sections ⁄NC Flood Risk Information System HEC Models DATA Collection -Needs Summary ›Data Still Needed ⁄Monitoring Data (PRIORITY) •Observed Streamflow (Station info, timeseries data) (have USGS) •Observed WQ (Station info, data records) (have USGS) •NPDES outfall locations and discharge/wq timeseries ›Data Still Needed IF APPLICABLE/AVAILABLE ⁄Monitoring Data •Controlled reservoir discharges/stage for modeled lakes •Diversion locations and timeseries •Irrigation and/or water supply pumping records •Bed composition/fractionation analysis -particle size distribution ⁄Land Characteristics •Agricultural tillage estimates •Location/type of irrigation •Septic failure estimates ⁄Channel Characteristics •Lake bathymetry for modeled lakes •Estimated Manning’s n 12 Data Collection ›Additional DATA Knowledge welcome! ⁄State/local ⁄Higher resolution ⁄Not available online (or something we are unaware of online) ⁄In progress studies ⁄Provide through email or shared teams folder 13 RESPEC.COM Meteorological Data (Forcing Data) 14 ›Data Sources ⁄North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) •12-km grid at an hourly time-step ⁄Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) •4-KM grid at a daily time-step ›Parameters ⁄Precipitation ⁄Potential Evapotranspiration ⁄Solar Radiation ⁄Air Temperature ⁄Dewpoint Temperature ⁄Wind Speed ⁄Cloud Cover MET ZONE Development ›MET ZONE Definition ⁄Subwatersheds sharing the same precipitation time-series ⁄Landuses in these zones share the same parameter sets ›Steps ⁄Obtain precipitation for each subwatershed ⁄Produce correlation and adjacency matrices ⁄Use analysis to aid the Aggregation of subwatersheds 15 MET ZONEs Correlation Matrix 16 Adjacency Matrix MET ZONES 17 ›Additional considerations ⁄Drainage Areas ⁄Average Annual Precipitation ⁄Abrupt Changes in… •Soils •Landuse •Topography •Ecoregion Modeling Period ›2004-2022 ⁄Wet and dry years ⁄2003 as “warm up period” 18 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Precip (inches) Station: Richlands (316422)Station: Jacksonville Eoc (314471)Station: Albert Ellis Airport (KOAJ)Station: Sandy Run (CLJN7) DRAFT Subwatershed Delineation ›Draft Delineation Ready for Review ⁄Boundary condition at Falls Lake outlet ⁄Breaks at: •Most HUC12 outlets •Applicable parameter impairment outlets •Significant flow and water quality monitoring sites •Connected lakes >200 acres ⁄Will upload to shared Teams folder ⁄Best format? GIS shapefile/geodatabase/pdf? ⁄National hydrography database v2 being used •Hydrologically corrected digital elevation model •Flow accumulation grid •Flow direction grid •Errors occur using NHD high-resolution database •ArcGIS pro hydrology toolset 19 DRAFT Reach Development ›Draft Reaches Ready for Review ⁄Will upload to shared folder ⁄Best format? GIS shapefile/geodatabase/pdf? ⁄Used national hydrologic dataset high-resolution flowlines ⁄One reach per subwatershed ⁄Calculations for HSPF: •Length •Slope •Elevation •F-tables •At a range of depths •Surface area •Volume •Flow 20 Reach/Lake FTABLE Development ›Function table (FTABLE) ⁄Summary of hydraulic properties (extended rating curve) ⁄For each depth/stage •Surface area •Volume •Outflow ›Lake Data ⁄Bathymetry ⁄Outflow information (dams) ›Reach Data ⁄Cross sections •Hydraulic models (have a LOT!!!) •Surveys •DEM/Lidar •Streamflow field measurements/gaging notes 21 Draft Modeled Reservoir/Lake Selection ›7 Lakes/Reservoirs ⁄Impaired (1) ⁄Connected and >200 acres ⁄Calculate surface area at volumes and depths of contours if bathymetry is available 22 Lake/Reservoirs Size (Acres)Impaired Lake Johnson 148 Yes Holts Lake 379 No Lake Crabtree 455 No Lake Benson 476 No Wiggins Mill Reservoir 511 No Lake Wheeler 565 No Buckhorn Reservoir 758 No Schematic Development ›Model Land Cover In each Subwatershed ⁄Evaluate •National Land Cover Dataset 2019 •NRCS gNATSGO Soils Hydrologic Soil Group •Crop types •Tile drainage 23 Developed 16% Forest 28% Scrub/Shrub 2%Herbaceous 2% Hay/Pasture 4% Cultivated Crops 24% Wetland 24% A 19% B 19% C 9% AD/BD/CD/D 53% Soybeans 45% Corn 24% Dbl Crop WinWht/Soybean s 8% Fallow/Idle Cropland 6% Cotton 6% Sweet Potatoes 4% Tobacco 3% Other 4% Schematic Development ›Tile Drainage Estimation ⁄Row crops ⁄Less than 4% slope ⁄Hydrologic Soil Group A/D, B/D, C/D, D 24 D. Wall, Gosack, B., Pearson, T., Shore, M., 2017. Estimating Tile Drainage Densities. Prepared by Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and Minnesota Department of Environmental Resources Schematic Development ›Manured Cropland ⁄Evaluate estimation by subwatershed 25 Method used in Chesapeake Bay Watershed Mode: https://cast-content.chesapeakebay.net/documents/5%20Land%20Use%202020%2003%20Draft.pdf Land Use Aggregation 26 Incorporate Manured Cropland? Final Segmentation ›Putting it all together ⁄Produce the schematic •Links all source areas to a reach ›Initial Model parameterization ⁄Past modeling efforts •Pawcatuck •CTWM (2001) •Octoraro ⁄GIS Data •Slope •Elevation •Soil properties 27 Land Cover Impervious MS4 Hydrozones HSG Sewered/Blockpop Calibration vs validation ›Calibration ⁄Adjust model parameters through an iterative trial and error-process until the resulting predictions provide a good correlation with observed data ›Validation ⁄Test of the calibration on a separate time-period to help establish greater confidence in the calibration and predictive capabilities 28 Calibration Criteria 29 ›How good is good enough? Hydrology Calibration 30 ›Phases for hydrology calibration ⁄Establish an annual water balance ⁄Adjust low-flow/high-flow distribution ⁄Adjust storm flow/hydrograph shape ⁄Make seasonal adjustments Water Quality Calibration process ›Phases for Water Quality calibration ⁄Estimate land-use-specific parameters ⁄Compare simulated loading rates with expected ranges and adjust if necessary ⁄Calibrate instream parameters to observed data 31 Land-use Frink's Export Coefficients (lb/ac/yr) CTWM Export Coefficients (lb/ac/yr) Total Nitrogen Total Phosphorus Total Nitrogen Total Phosphorus General Urban 12.0 ±2.3 1.5 ±0.2 NA NA Pervious Urban NA NA 8.5 (5.6–15.7)0.26 (0.20–0.41) Impervious Urban NA NA 4.9 (3.7–6.6)0.32 (0.18–0.36) Agriculture 6.8 ±2.0 0.5 ±0.13 5.9 (3.4–11.6)0.30 (0.23–0.44) Forest 2.1 ±0.4 0.1 ±0.03 2.4 (1.4–4.3)0.04 (0.03–0.08) Wetland NA NA 2.2 (1.4–3.5)0.03 (0.02–0.05) 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 TN Loading Rate [lb/acre/yr]TN Loading Rates -Example Calibration Overview ›Water Quality Calibration ⁄Sediment ⁄Dissolved oxygen ⁄Temperature ⁄Phosphorus species ⁄Nitrogen species ⁄Chlorophyll A ›Evaluation ⁄Daily ⁄Duration ⁄Monthly averages ›Match Observed Data to Model Simulation 32 Simulated Observed Daily Monthly Duration Nutrient Upstream to Downstream 33 ChickasheenBrUsquepaugRPawcUS Kenyon PawcDS Kenyon PawcDS Wood R Pawc@ Westerly Wood RAshwayRWorden PondBeaver RWatchaugPond HSPF PATH SAM SCENARIO APPLICATION MANAGER (SAM) Overview ›Stand Alone Program ›HSPF modeling experience not required ›SAM Requirements ⁄Calibrated HSPF model ⁄GIS watersheds linked to model ⁄BMP database (built-in) ›SAM Functionality ⁄GIS mapping ⁄Existing conditions analysis (base scenario) ⁄Scenario development ⁄Scenario analysis ⁄Scenario reporting ⁄Optimization Determine Pollutants of Concern Identify Critical Locations/Sources load Concentration Identify Critical Locations/Sources Customize Scenario Customize Scenario Optimizing scenarios $250,000 Prioritize Subbasins Target BMPs Set Optimization Targets Optimization Seeks to Achieve Target But is Limited by Available Budget1 2 3 Process Options4 Optimized BMP outputs5 Scenario Analysis Neuse SAM Application 45 ›Nutrient Transport and Delivery Factor Calculation ⁄Local Runoff Loads ⁄Load Fate at Point of Interest Training and Facilitation of Watershed Planning ›12 Trainings in Past 2 Years Documentation ›Model Selection Memo (Completed) ›QAPP (in review) ›Input Dataset Memo ⁄Including justification of model land cover and QA/QC approaches ›Model Configuration Memo ›Model Calibration Report ›Final Model Report 47 Combining these two into one Next Steps ›RESPEC ⁄Send draft subwatersheds and reaches to NC DWR for review ⁄Update after review ⁄Process cross-sections ›NC DWR ⁄Review subwatersheds and reaches ⁄Send state monitoring data ⁄Send point source data 48 Thank you! RESPEC.COM 49 Seth.Kenner@RESPEC.com Cindie.Kirby@RESPEC.com SAM/HSPF Application Examples 50 ›Total Maximum Daily Loads ⁄Evaluate sources ⁄Pull median/average flows, loads, and concentrations for TMDL table development •By season •By flow zone •For specified years ⁄Pull information needed for BATHTUB modeling ⁄Evaluate point source and MS4 loads Upstream Lake SAM/HSPF Application Examples ›Watershed Restoration and Protection Plans ⁄Evaluate what-if scenarios •What if: •More development occurs? •Forest is converted to ag land? •More wetlands are drained for farming? •Forest harvest increases? •Urban BMPs are widely implemented? •Ag BMPs are widely implemented? 51 SAM/HSPF Application Examples ›Other Applications ⁄Point source permitting •Determine loads/concentrations that will lead to attainment of WQ standards ⁄Water quality trading •Development of attenuation factors ⁄Delivery coefficients 52 SAM/HSPF Application Examples ›Watershed Planning ⁄Prioritization •Subwatersheds •Landuses •BMPs ⁄Goals ⁄Targeting 53 SAM/HSPF Application Examples ›Tool Linkage For Targeting ⁄Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework (ACPF) ⁄Targeting parcels •RUSLE for sediment •NBMP/PBMP for TN/TP (Lazarus) 54