The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink AboutWater Use and Population Estimates Reported to the EMC Water Quality Committee on January 8, 1987 TRIANGLE J COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS 100 PARK DRIVE P.O. BOX 12276 RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. 27709 (919) 549-0551 January 30, 1987 TO: John Morris, Director, Division of Water Resources, NRCD FROM: Ed Holland, Director, Resource Conservation, TJCOG SUBJECT: Water Use and Population Estimates Reported to the EMC Water Quality Committee on January 8, 1987 My January 8 comments to the EMC Water Quality Committee included several observations and forecasts which the Committee asked me to document. This memo is in response to that request. PRESENT PATTERNS • Communities in Region J currently use between 70 and 75 MGD of treated water. • The 20 year safe yields of all existing surface supplies in the 6-county region represent a total of about 200 MGD. • Approximately another 90 MGD is either under construction (Durham Little River: 22, OWASA Cane Creek: 10); renovation (Raleigh Southside Lakes: 20) or identified for possible future development (Eastern Wake Little River: 18, Durham Upper Flat: 20). • Jordan Lake represents an additional 100 MGD safe yield of capacity. • Total available plus "developable" supplies for the region are about 400 MGD, not counting possible diversions of Cape Fear River water to the Triangle Area. Data Sources: Numbers were extracted from Attachment A (Publicly Owned Water Supplies, TJCOG, 1986), which was developed from NRCD's Cape Fear and Upper Neuse River reports, plus conversations with local utilities staff. ESTIMATED DEMAND FORECASTS • Depending on assumed rates of population growth and per consumption, the present regionwide demand of 70 - 75 MGD will increase to 200 MGD in about 30 to 40 years (2020 - 2030). (Continued) APEX • BENSON • BROADWAY • CARRBORO • CARY • CHAPEL HILL CLAYTON • DURHAM • FOUR OAKS • FUQUAY-VARINA • GARNER GOLDSTON • HILLSBOROUGH • HOLLY SPRINGS • KENLY • KNIGHTDALE MICRO • MORRISVILLE • PINE LEVEL • PITTSBORO • PRINCETON RALEIGH • ROLESVILLE • SANFORD • SELMA • SILER CITY SMITHFIELD • WAKE FOREST • WENDELL • ZEBULON CHATHAM COUNTY • DURHAM COUNTY • JOHNSTON COUNTY LEE COUNTY • ORANGE COUNTY • WAKE COUNTY -2- • Total regionwide demand will increase to 400 MGD in the next 50 to 75 years (2040 - 2060). Data Sources: Population estimates/projectinos were based on Attachment B (Regional Data Report,TJCOG, 1986), plus the assumptions outlined below. 1. Population and water demand were estimated only for "incorporated areas" of Region J, as reported in Attachment B. This represents the population likely to be served by publicly owned water systems. 2. Forecasts were based on a 1985 incorporated area population of 450,000 growing at a rate of 2.5 to 3.0 % compounded annually. By comparison, consider the following annual population growth rates for the 1980 - 85 period: United States 0.96% North Carolina 1.23% Region J (total) 2.12% (incorporated areas) 3.41% Raleigh 4.15% Cary 8.18% Durham 1.89% Chapel Hill/Carrboro 1.74% 3. Water demands were estimated with low and high per capita consumption rates of 100 to 200 gpcd. TRIANGLE J COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS 100 PARK DRIVE P.O. BOX 12276 RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. 27709 (919) 549-0551 PUBLICLY OWNED WATER SUPPLIES - 1986 Attached is a summary of public water supplies in the six counties of Region J. This table supplements a Triangle J wall map of major surface supplies, treatment capacities, interconnections, and average daily use in the region. Principle data sources were NRCD's Cape Fear and Upper Neuse River reports, plus conversations with local utilities staff. A note about Safe Yield: The column heading "Est. Safe Yield - 20" refers to the estimated 20-Year Safe Yield of each surface source. This is a statistical estimate, based on historical streamflow data, of the water available in 19 years out of 20 for each source. The 20-Year Safe Yield represents a 95 percent reliability level for each source. It is not the life expectancy of a water supply. Actual yield will equal or exceed this amount 95 percent of the time. APEX • BENSON • BROADWAY • CARRBORO • CARY • CHAPEL HILL CLAYTON • DURHAM • FOUR OAKS • FUQUAY-VARINA • GARNER GOLDSTON • HILLSBOROUGH • HOLLY SPRINGS • KENLY • KNIGHTDALE MICRO • MORRISVILLE • PINE LEVEL • PITTSBORO • PRINCETON RALEIGH • ROLESVILLE • SANFORD • SELMA • SILER CITY SMITHFIELD • WAKE FOREST • WENDELL • ZEBULON CHATHAM COUNTY • DURHAM COUNTY • JOHNSTON COUNTY LEE COUNTY • ORANGE COUNTY • WAKE COUNTY PUBLICLY OWNED WATER SUPPLIES - 1986 DRAFT 6 June 86 Est. Safe Treatment Average Surface Yield - 20 Capacity Daily Use Wells Source (MGD) (MGD) (MGD) CHATHAM COUNTY Pittsboro No Haw River 39 1.0 0.7 Slier City No Rocky River 5 4.0 2.0 Goldston-Gulf No Deep River 6 0.5 0.1 DURHAM COUNTY Durham No Lake Michie 22 Little River Res 21 34 24 Eno River 5 JOHNSTON COUNTY Smithfield No Neuse River 18 6.0 1.6 Selma Yes (Smithfield) 0.7 Clayton Yes (Smithfield) 0.6 LEE COUNTY Sanford No Cape Fear River 19 6.0 3.4 Broadway Yes (Sanford) 0.1 ORANGE COUNTY Hillsborough No L. Ben Johnson 0.7 3.0 1.2 Orange-Ala., Inc. No Corporation Lake 0.6 1.0 0.5 OWASA No University Lake 3.5 Cane Creek Res. 10 15 6 Stone Quarry 0.5 (Hillsborough) WAKE COUNTY Raleigh No Falls Lake 80 63 25 Southside Lakes 20 13 0 Apex No Williams Crk Res. 0.6 1.0 0.7 Zebulon No Little River 0.5 1.0 0.4 Wake Forest No Wake Forest Res. 1.0 2.0 0.6 (Raleigh) Cary Yes (Raleigh) 2.5 Fuquay-Varina Yes (Raleigh) 0.5 Holly Springs Yes (Raleigh) 0.1 Morrisville No (Cary) <0.1 Est. Safe Treatment Average Surface Yield - 20 Capacity Daily Use Wells Source (MGD) (MGD) (MGD) Garner Yes (Raleigh) KnightdaIe Yes (Raleigh) RolesviIle Yes (Wake Forest) Wendell No (Zebulon) (Raleigh) SUBTOTALS 252 151 72 JORDAN LAKE 100 OTHER SOURCES Graham-Mebane No Quaker Lake 50 6.0 2.5 Dunn No Cape Fear River 22 4.0 2.0 NE Metropolitan Water District No Cape Fear River 22 3.3 1.0 TOTALS 401 164 78 NOTES a. Reservoir currently under construction. b. For emergency use only. c. Current treatment capacity is 10 MGD; 5 MGD expansion authorized by OWASA Board. d. The Falls Lake water supply capacity is still being negotiated by Raleigh, NRCD, and the Corps of Engineers. Amore authoritative estimate will be based on updated determinations of storage volume and downstream flow requirements. e. Southside Lakes (Johnson, Raleigh, Wheeler, and Benson) and the E.M. Bain Treatment Plant, with a yield of 20 MGD and treatment capacity of 13 MGD, have been indefinitely mothballed; no longer used by Raleigh. f. 389 MGD available with augmentation from Jordan Lake. g. 386 MGD available with augmentation from Jordan Lake. h. If operated as a system in conjunction with Corporation and Ben John Lakes, Lake Orange is capable of an estimated 20-year safe yield of 5.0 MGD. TRIANGLE J COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS REGIONAL DATA REPORT 100 PARK DRIVE P. O. BOX 12276 RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. 27709 (919) 549-0551 Vol. 5, No. 1 January, 1986 POPULATION PROJECTIONS (Another Wake County is Coming) Over the next twenty years, the population of the six counties making up the Triangle J Region wilt increase by an amount equal to the current population of Wake County - the largest of the six. By the year 2005, the region's population is expected to top 1,131,000 - 385,000 more than the current population of the region. By comparison, the estimated population of Wake County in 1985 was about 343,000. These statistics are presented in Table I, along with 1985 population estimates end projections to the year 2005 for each county and municipality in the region. The Region As A Whole Several significant observations can be made about the population data for the Region, drawing upon Table I. One observation is that a trend of the 1970's has apparently been reversed. During the 1970's the population in the unincorporated areas of the Region increased at a faster rate than the population in the cities and towns. Since 1980, however, the cities and towns are growing faster than the unincorporated areas. This probably reflects a more vigorous annexation policy on the part of the municipalities. The Region is growing at a faster rate than the State as a whole, and the State is growing faster than the nation, In 1980, the Triangle J Region accounted for 11.4 percent of the State's population. In 1985, the ratio had risen to 11.9%, and by 2005 it is projected that the Region's population will be 15,6% of the statewide total. Put another way, more than 38% of the statewide population increase over the next twenty years will occur in the Triangle J Region. POPULATION PERCENT CHANGE 1980-2005 -5- Summary Over the next twenty years, the population of the Region is expected to increase by 385,000 people - more than the present population of Wake County. That's an average of over 19,000 new people every year. At the present time, only four cities in the Region have more than 19,000 population. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN TRIANGLE J REGION 1980 1986 2005 The Region is becoming increasingly urbanized. Contrary to the 1970's, cities and towns have grown faster than the unincorporated areas since 1980. This is expected to acclerate during the upcoming twenty-year period. Wake County dominates the Region, in terms of land area, numbers of people, numbers of towns, degree of urbanization and recent growth rate. The State of North Carolina is one of the faster growing states, accounting for an increasing share of the nation's population. Throughout the nation, however, growth rates are expected to decline due to the drop in birth rates. A Note On Methodology. The estimates and projections in this report are based primarily on recent trends. Estimates and projections by city and county officials were used where they conformed reasonably well to trendlines. Municipal boundaries are not fixed, therefore the projections for municipalities are only rough guides. The assumption that annexation policies will not change markedly over the projection period is implicit in these projections. GRAPHIC INDICATORS OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES FOR REGION J UNEMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES FOR REGION J TOTAL HOUSING UNITS AUTHORIZED FOR CONSTRUCTION RETAIL SAILS FOR REGION J TRIANGLE J COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS 100 PARK DRIVE P. O. BOX 12276 RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N. C. 27709 (919) 549-0551