Modeling Yadkin Pee Lumber RB Operations with Oasis

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Modeling the Yadkin-Pee and Lumber
River Basin Operations with OASIS

February 2021
Prepared for the North Carolina Division of Water Resources

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Table of Contents

Section Page
1 – Introduction 3 2 – Model Components 2.1 Schematic 5
2.2 Model Input 12
2.3 Run Configurations 14 2.4 Model Output 15 Appendices

A - Model Static Input Data and Run Code B – Finalized Inflow Data Development C – Provisional Inflow Data Development
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Section 1. Introduction
This report describes how OASIS is used to model the surface water operations of the Yadkin-Pee Dee and Lumber (YPDL) River basins spanning Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. This model extends geographically from the headwaters of the Yadkin River upstream of Kerr Scott reservoir to the Pee Dee at Pee Dee River gage in
South Carolina, along with the Lumber River from its headwaters to gaged locations in South Carolina. This report is not intended to replace the User Manual for OASIS, which is available from the Help menu of the model. Rather, it is intended to document the data used in this application as well as the current operations of the basin. Information about
the OASIS platform is included only to the extent necessary to provide context for the
application-specific data. The summary of the model development process was provided to the Technical Review
Committee and broader stakeholder group as a slide deck
(Yadkin_PeeDee_Lumber_Model_Overview_Dec_11_2020.pptx, Dec. 2020). The model is available for registered users on the Division of Water Resources (DWR)
server. The model can be used in two modes: (1) a simulation mode to evaluate system
performance for a given set of demands, operating policies, and facilities over the historic inflow record; and (2) a position analysis mode for real-time management. The simulation mode contains the basecase run representing today’s conditions. In the position analysis mode, the model uses multiple ensemble forecasts to provide a
probabilistic assessment of conditions up to one year in the future. Although it can be
used for other purposes as well, this feature is particularly useful for drought management. The model uses an inflow data set that extends from October 1, 1929 through September
30, 2019. This data set was developed using a comprehensive approach that (1) relies on
over 35 streamflow gages in the basin; (2) accounts explicitly for upstream alterations, or impairments, from reservoir regulation and net water consumption; and (3) uses statistical techniques to complete missing records for these gages.
Real-time drought management requires forecasts of inflow and, as noted below, the
forecasts are generated based on inflows through the present day. Updating the inflows requires the collection of impairment data, which can be time intensive. It is envisioned that these data will be collected every five years. In the interim (e.g., through 2024), the inflow data starting October 2019 will be based on a provisional inflow technique so that
real-time updates can be made quickly and easily without the need to collect all the
impairment data. The remainder of this document summarizes the components of the model and the major operations in the basin. Appendix A lists the static input data and run code used in the
basecase simulation run that is based on today’s facilities, operations, and demands.
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Appendix B describes the approach used to establish the finalized inflow data set. Appendix C describes the approach for generating provisional inflows.
It is important to note how the OASIS model should and should not be used. OASIS is a generalized type of mass balance model used mainly in evaluating planning and management alternatives. It is not intended for use in hydraulic routing nor flood management, although it can be linked to other models for those purposes.
In addition, since modeling results are sensitive to inflows, the user must be cautioned about accuracy of the inflows. Hazen spent considerable effort in developing the inflow data. The methodology ensures that the monthly naturalized flows at the gage locations match, which assumes that any measurement error is embedded in the impairments and not the streamflow data. DWR agreed to this method, which, although imperfect, is the
most reasonable given the available data. Further, it is important to note that we are not trying to replicate history in computing the OASIS inflows; rather, we are trying to build a data set of daily flows whose variation is representative of history while preserving monthly gaged flows as “ground truth”.
Due partly to the inaccuracy of some of the impairment data and to time of travel, negative inflows may occur. These can lead to potential model infeasibility. The model code filters out negative inflows, particularly large ones, but preserves the total inflow volume over a short period by debiting those negative inflows from subsequent positive inflows. For example, if a rainstorm hits the upstream part of the reach but not the
downstream part, the gaged flow data may indicate a large negative inflow (gain) between the upstream and downstream ends. When the flow attenuates upstream and peaks downstream, the inflow becomes positive, and the negative gains from the days before are debited from the positive inflows in the days after to ensure that the average
inflow over that period is preserved. The occurrence of negative inflows is reduced along
the main-stem of Yadkin-Pee Dee by incorporating time-of-travel equations recommended by the Technical Advisory Group set up for this project. These equations are provided in Appendix B.
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Section 2. Model Components
2.1 Schematic
The model uses a map-based schematic that includes nodes for surface water withdrawals (agricultural, municipal, and industrial), discharges (municipal and industrial), reservoirs, gage locations, and points along the rivers where flows are of interest. Arcs represent
means of water conveyance between nodes. The model schematic is shown on the
following pages in Figure 1. The schematic and associated physical data were developed with input from basin stakeholders at model review meetings, including the Technical Review Committee. Hazen ensured consistency with the mapping of withdrawals and discharges by HDR in its 2019 Water Use Projections report for the Water Management
Group. This included mapping of the users by subbasins for the Yadkin-Pee Dee, each
corresponding to mainstem reservoir locations like Kerr Scott. Hazen also incorporated mapping by DWR of users and the associated interconnections. In total, the model has 311 nodes and 664 connecting arcs. There are 31 reservoir nodes
(including two used for time-of-travel flow routing), 13 agricultural demand nodes, 47
municipal and industrial demand nodes, 46 wastewater discharge arcs linked to demands (including WTP process returns), 3 regional wastewater treatment plant nodes, 43 independent wastewater discharge nodes (i.e., not tied into a water withdrawal node), 103 natural inflow nodes (including the reservoir nodes and 36 USGS gages), and other
miscellaneous nodes to account for minimum flow requirements, interconnections, and
instream flow assessment for ecological needs. Interconnections capture regular and emergency use, including inter-basin transfers.
Given the large number of nodes, to help differentiate the basins, we numbered all nodes from 1 to 999 to apply to the Yadkin-Pee Dee; all nodes from 1000 to 1999 to apply to the Lumber. The ending digit has been set to help identify the type of node. For example, all demand nodes end in 5. All USGS gage nodes end in 4. Refer to the udef_list.ocl file for detail on node numbering.
In addition, to facilitate comparison with HDR estimates of water demands and discharges for today’s conditions, we created substitutes to track these values for the appropriate subbasin. For example, total municipal and industrial water withdrawals in the High Rock subbasin (representing all of the demands between Kerr Scott and High
Rock) are tracked with the substitute called [HR_Subbasin_Demand]. The output table files can then be opened to display these summary values.
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Figure 1a. YPDL OASIS Model Schematic
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Figure 1b. Schematic Detail –Kerr Scott Reservoir to Enon Gage
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Figure 1c. Schematic Detail – Enon Gage to High Rock Reservoir
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Figure 1d. Schematic Detail – Tuckertown Reservoir to Blewett Falls Reservoir
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Figure 1e. Schematic Detail - Pee Dee River below Blewett Falls and Upper Lumber Basin
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Figure 1f. Schematic Detail - Lower Lumber River and Waccamaw River

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The user can click on any node or connecting arc on the schematic to access specific
information, like reservoir elevation-storage-area data or minimum streamflow requirements. These data are also contained in tables which can be accessed via data queries in the model. 2.2 Model Input
Input data for the model comes in three forms: static and pattern data, timeseries data, and user-
defined data using operations control language (OCL). All datasets are stored in a SQL Server
database. While data tables can be accessed via SQL queries, the easiest way for most users to view data is through the OASIS GUI using “Find Data” queries. Static and pattern data are contained in the GUI and represent data that do not change during the
model simulation (such as physical data like reservoir elevation-storage-area relationships) or
repeating data that occurs every year in the simulation (like monthly demand patterns or seasonal minimum release patterns). Timeseries data change with each day in the simulation record and typically consist of inflows and reservoir net evaporation. OCL allows the user to define more elaborate operating rules than are permitted from the GUI.
Static and Pattern Data Tables containing the model’s static and pattern data can be found in Appendix A. Reservoir information includes elevation-storage-area relationships, minimum and maximum allowable
storage, and any rule curves which dictate the preferred operating elevation throughout the year.
Minimum flows and reservoir releases are defined by minimum flow patterns on arcs, or by OCL for more complex minimum flow protocols.
Water treatment plant and transmission constraints are defined by maximum capacities on arcs.
Municipal and industrial demand nodes use an annual average demand subject to a monthly pattern, and an associated wastewater discharge based on a fraction of the monthly demand. Wastewater discharges not associated with demand nodes are modeled using an annual average
return subject to a monthly pattern.
The model allows the user to systematically adjust all municipal and industrial demands in the basin by invoking the demand multiplier option on the Setup tab for the run. This is useful when doing sensitivity analyses on the impact of demand growth in the basin. Note that agricultural
demands and independent wastewater returns are not adjusted using this multiplier. The
agricultural demand can be adjusted as described below, and the independent wastewater returns can be adjusted manually in the pattern tables.

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Timeseries Data
The timeseries data contain all the inflow and net evaporation (evaporation less precipitation) data. The sources for these data are provided in Appendix B along with a more detailed description of how the inflows were developed. As noted, updating the timeseries data can be done in two ways: (1) using the comprehensive approach described in Appendix B; or (2) using the provisional approach for facilitating real-time drought management described in Appendix C.
The provisional approach relies on data from select gaging and precipitation stations throughout the basin. The provisional updates can be done directly from the interface by selecting the History tab. First the user presses the Download button, and once confirming the dates to download, clicks
Download. Once the data has downloaded the user needs to check for any blanks or erroneous values – the download log will flag any missing values, and data can be manually entered by selecting a variable (or multiple variables) and clicking the Plot Window button. After verifying the data, the inflows can be updated by pressing the Compute button. The update record algorithm will calculate the inflows to all the OASIS inflow nodes and net evaporation for all
reservoir nodes and write them to the database automatically. Agricultural surface water use is modeled as a timeseries over the historic hydrologic record. It is broken out by county and depends on livestock count, crop usage, livestock and crop water consumption, and rainfall. Evapotranspiration equations for certain crops are used in
conjunction with the timeseries precipitation record so that the crops are only irrigated when necessary. The water use can be easily adjusted from the model interface by opening the Edit Agricultural Data dialog box on the Setup tab. The model automatically converts the input data on crop acreage (irrigated by surface water as opposed to ground water) and livestock count into
water use values. The agricultural demand nodes are a summation of the agricultural water
usage in a particular reach of interest. Operating Rules

Most of the water allocation priorities are set by the user in the GUI by applying weights to nodes and arcs. The most common operating rules are for storing water in reservoirs versus releasing the water to meet local demands or minimum releases, and these are reflected by the weighting scheme. Simply stated, if a minimum flow in a river is more important than meeting
the local water supply demand, a higher weight on the minimum flow means water supply
deliveries will be scaled back, if necessary, to meet the minimum flow (usually in a drought). Weights are shown in the OCL files as part of targets on flow and storage, but also in the static tables as they relate to demands, minimum releases, and reservoir storage (see Appendix A).
The Operations Control Language (OCL) allows the user to model more complex operating
rules, such as hydropower production or drought management protocols that tie demand

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reductions to reservoir levels or river flows. These files are accessible from the model interface. The OCL files associated with the basecase simulation run that represents current conditions is
included in Appendix A. The key OCL files include main.ocl, which initializes the run and refers to all the other OCL files; Mainstem_Operations.ocl, which describe the hydropower operations on the mainstem for the Cube Carolina and Duke Energy projects; Kerr_Scott_Operations.ocl, which provide the coding for the Corps of Engineers Kerr Scott Project; Misc_Operations.ocl, which detail operations of systems that are on tributaries of the
Yadkin-Pee Dee; sales_purchases.ocl, which provide coding on the interconnections between utilities; Low_Inflow_Protocol.ocl, which describes the drought protocol agreed to in the hydropower licenses for the mainstem projects; WSRPs.ocl, which provides the coding for the utility water shortage response plans (WSRPs); and WW_returns.ocl which sets the wastewater returns. The OCL files are provided with detailed commentary for background information on
the system operations, including hydropower license requirements. 2.3 Run Configurations

The model can be used in two modes: (1) a simulation mode to evaluate system performance for a given set of demands, operating policies, and facilities over the historic inflow record; and (2) a
position analysis mode for real-time management. General information on creating, modifying,
and executing runs is provided in the tutorial PowerPoint presentations for OASIS, which provides screenshots of setting up and modifying OASIS runs, along with supplemental information in the User Manual for OASIS, which has more detail on using OCL.
Simulation:
To enable all utility drought plans in a run, as well as the Low Inflow Protocol that is in the hydropower licenses for Cube Carolinas and Duke Energy (as well as utilities affected by their operations), set the Drought Plans On variable in the OCL Constants Table to 1. A value of 0
will turn all drought plans off.
The GUI allows for all municipal and industrial demands in the model to be uniformly increased or decreased by a user-specified fraction. To enable the demand multiplier, check the Use Multiplier box on the Setup tab, and enter a number in the Multiplier Value box. For example,
setting the value to 0.9 will decrease all M&I demands by 10%, and setting it to 1.1 will increase
them by 10%. Position Analysis:
In position analysis mode, the user can select from Conditional or Non-Conditional Forecasts on
the Setup tab. By executing a run, the model will produce a forecast (typically of river flows or reservoir elevations) for up to the next 365 days. A forecast can be made on any date in the historic inflow record or no more than one day after the end of the inflow record. Typically, it

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will be used starting the day after the last update of the inflow and net evaporation record. For example, if these records end September 30, 2019, the user can run a forecast for October 1,
2019. If a month has passed, and the user wants to run a forecast for November 1, 2019, the user would update the inflows and net evaporation for October using the Update Record tab and then start the position analysis run on November 1. For a reservoir, or locations affected by the operation of a reservoir upstream, the forecast is dependent on the starting elevation of the reservoir. On the Setup tab, the user simply inputs the starting elevation (or storage), the starting
date of the forecast run, and clicks Run. 2.4 Model Output
The model allows the user to customize output files (tables or plots) and save them for routine
use. Alternatively, the user can click on any node or arc on the schematic or go to the Setup tab
and select Quick View to access and save tabular or plotted output. A number of tables and plots have been provided for points of interest in the basin. The balance sheet can also serve as a useful tool for tracking water through the system.
Included in the model output tables is a file called xQy_ClimaticYear_YadkinCollege.1v. This
file allows the user to compute instream flow statistics, such as 7Q10, for a specific site, in this case the Yadkin River at Yadkin College gage. To generate statistics for a different site, the user would copy and rename the file, then change the name and associated arc listed in the file. When viewing the generated output, the default layout shows two columns, for 7- and 30-day low flows
(these periods can be changed in the .1v file). Scrolling to the bottom of the output file shows
Log Pearson percentiles for each column. If the user is interested in the 7Q10 (7-day low flow, 10th percentile) flow, the user would look at the first column, and the row labeled LPrs.100. In addition, the model is capable of automatically determining the safe yield for a specific
demand node, in this case Lake Reese (Asheboro). To generate statistics for a different site, the
user would copy and rename the file (currently called SafeYield_Reese.1v), then change the name and associated demand node listed in the file. The safe yield can be determined for each year in the historic inflow record (annual safe yield analysis) or for the entire period of record. The user inputs the adjustment criteria by selecting the Run Safe Yield Analysis button on the Setup tab.
The safe yield routine works by tracking demand shortages for the chosen demand node, and
iteratively works towards the maximum demand that produces no shortages from the supply source (in this example, Lake Reese). Note under the current output file configuration, the drought plans should be turned off when using the safe yield routine, as the demand reductions resulting from drought restrictions inherently produce a ‘shortage’ from the normal demand. The
output file configuration can be modified if needed for the specific drought plan of each system.