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HomeMy WebLinkAboutTar-Pam_CY2018_Annual_Report NCDA&CS 2019 Annual Progress Report (Crop Year 2018) on the Tar-Pamlico Agricultural Rule (15A NCAC 02B .0256) A Report to the Environmental Management Commission from the Tar-Pamlico Basin Oversight Committee: Crop Year 2018 2 3 Tar-Pamlico NSW Strategy The Environmental Management Commission (EMC) adopted the Tar-Pamlico nutrient strategy in 2000. The management strategy built upon the precedent-setting Neuse River Basin effort established three years earlier, which for the first time set regulatory reduction measures for nutrients on cropland acres in the state. The NSW strategy goal is to reduce the average annual load of nitrogen to the Pamlico estuary by 30% from 1991 levels and to limit phosphorus loading to 1991 levels. Mandatory controls were applied to address non-point source pollution in agriculture, urban stormwater, nutrient management, and riparian buffer protection. As of 2016, the Pamlico estuary is still classified as impaired and is not meeting its 30 percent nitrogen loading reduction goals. Summary The Tar-Pamlico Basin Oversight Committee (BOC) received and approved crop year1 (CY) 2018 annual reports from the fourteen Local Advisory Committees (LACs) operating under the Tar- Pamlico Agriculture Rule as part of the Tar-Pamlico Basin Nutrient Management Strategy. The report demonstrates agriculture’s ongoing collective compliance with the Tar-Pamlico Agriculture Rule and estimates further progress in decreasing nutrient losses. In CY2018, agriculture collectively achieved an estimated 58% reduction in nitrogen loss compared to the 1991 baseline, continuing to exceed the rule-mandated 30% reduction. All fourteen LAC’s exceeded the 30% reduction goal established by the BOC. Phosphorus tracking in the basin indicates less risk of phosphorus loss during CY2018 than in the baseline year for 7 of the 9 qualitative indicators. Rule Requirements and Compliance History Effective September 2001, the Tar-Pamlico Nutrient Sensitive Waters Management Strategy (NSW) provides for a collective strategy for farmers to meet the 30% nitrogen loss reduction and no-increase phosphorus goals within five years. A BOC and fourteen LACs were established to implement the rule and to assist farmers with complying with the rule. All fourteen Local Advisory Committees (LACs) submitted their first annual report to the BOC in November 2003, which collectively estimated a 39% nitrogen loss reduction, and 10 of 14 LACs exceeded the 30% individually. Collective reductions gradually increased in succeeding years, and by CY2007 only one LAC did not meet the 30% goal. Since CY2016 all LACs have exceeded the 30% reduction. Division of Soil and Water Conservation staff uses input from the LACs to calculate their annual reductions using the Nitrogen Loss Estimation Worksheet (NLEW). All fourteen LACs met as required in 2019, and based on their input the collective reduction of 58% exceeded the mandated 30% in CY2018. 1 The 2018 crop year began in October 2017 and ended in September 2018. 4 Scope of Report and Methodology The estimates provided in this report represent whole-county scale calculations of nitrogen loss from cropland agriculture adjusted for acreage in the basin. These estimates were made by Division of Soil and Water Conservation staff using the ‘aggregate’ version of NLEW, an accounting tool developed to meet the specifications of the Neuse Rule and approved by the EMC for use in the Tar-Pamlico Basin. The development team included interagency technical representatives of the NC Division of Water Resources (DWR), NC Division of Soil and Water Conservation (DSWC), USDA-NRCS and was led by NC State University Soil Science Department faculty. NLEW captures application of both inorganic and animal waste sources of fertilizer to cropland. It is an “edge-of-management unit” accounting tool that estimates changes in nitrogen loss from croplands, but does not estimate changes in nitrogen loading to surface waters. An assessment method was developed for phosphorus, approved by the EMC, and is described later in the report. Annual Estimates of N Loss and the Effect of NLEW Refinements The NLEW software is periodically revised to incorporate new knowledge gained through research and improvements to data. These changes have incorporated the best available data, but changes to NLEW must be considered when comparing nitrogen loss reduction in different versions of NLEW. Further updates in soil management units are expected as NRCS produces updated electronic soils data. The small changes in soil management units are unlikely to produce significant effects on nitrogen loss reductions. Figure 1 represents the annual percent nitrogen loss reduction from the baseline for 2001 to 2018. Figure 1. Collective Cropland Nitrogen Loss Reduction Percent 2001 to 2018, Tar Pamlico River Basin. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% % R e d u c t i o n Year NLEW v5.02 NLEW v5.51 NLEW v5.52 NLEW v5.53a NLEW v5.53b NLEW v6.0 30% Reduction Goal 5 The first NLEW reports were run in 2001, and agriculture has continued to exceed its collective 30% nitrogen reduction goal since that time. The first NLEW revision (v5.51) updated soil management units and marked a significant change in the nitrogen reduction efficiencies of buffers, so both the baseline and CY2005 were re-calculated based on the best available information. The second (v5.52) and third (v5.53a) revisions were administrative and included minor updates to soil mapping units and realistic yields. In April of 2011 the NLEW Committee established further reductions (v5.53b) in nitrogen removal efficiencies for buffers based on additional research. In 2016 NLEW software was updated (v6.0) from outdated software and transferred to a web-based platform on NCDA&CS servers. Revised realistic yield and nitrogen use efficiency data from NCSU was incorporated, and some minor calculation errors were corrected for corn and sweet potatoes. Table 1 lists the changes in buffer nitrogen reduction efficiencies over time. Table 1. Changes in Buffer Width Options and Nitrogen Reduction Efficiencies in NLEW Buffer Width NLEW v5.02* % N Reduction 2001-2005 NLEW v5.51, v5.52, v5.53a % N Reduction 2006-2010 NLEW v5.53b, v6.0 % N Reduction 2011-Current 20' 40% (grass) 30% 20% 75% (trees & shrubs) 30' 65% 40% 25% 50' 85% 50% 30% 70' 85% 55% 30% 100' 85% 60% 35% *NLEW v5.02 - the vegetation type (i.e. trees, shrubs, grass) within 20' and 50' buffers determined reduction values. Based on research results, this distinction was dropped from subsequent NLEW versions. 6 Current Status Nitrogen Reduction from Baseline for CY2018 All fourteen LACs submitted their eighteenth annual report to the BOC in July 2019. For the entire basin, in CY2018 agriculture achieved a 58% reduction in nitrogen loss compared to the 1991 baseline. This year all 14 LACs achieved the at-least 30% nitrogen loss reduction goal set by the BOC. Table 2 lists each county’s baseline, CY2017 and CY2018 nitrogen (lbs/yr) loss values, and nitrogen loss percent reductions from the baseline in CY2017 and CY2018. Table 2. Estimated Reductions in Agricultural Nitrogen Loss from Baseline (1991) for CY2017 and CY2018, Tar-Pamlico River Basin* County Baseline N Loss (lb)* CY2017 N Loss (lb)* CY2017 N Reduction (%) CY2018 N Loss (lb)* CY2018 N Reduction (%) Beaufort 9,178,262 4,152,675 55% 4,416,924 52% Edgecombe 5,037,742 2,633,613 48% 2,813,349 44% Franklin 2,183,680 463,912 79% 415,705 81% Granville 890,371 124,084 86% 129,478 85% Halifax 2,902,105 1,376,232 53% 1,387,694 52% Hyde 5,501,161 1,708,389 69% 2,033,956 63% Martin 782,152 497,333 36% 532,175 32% Nash 4,693,868 1,376,101 71% 1,382,451 71% Person 153,228 66,340 57% 60,010 61% Pitt 6,229,921 2,778,063 55% 2,676,430 57% Vance 419,485 81,709 81% 76,637 82% Warren 535,517 113,036 79% 226,197 58% Washington 939,912 407,955 57% 446,782 52% Wilson 890,691 405,996 54% 408,325 54% Total 40,338,095 16,185,438 60% 17,006,114 58% *Nitrogen loss values are for comparative purposes. They represent nitrogen that was applied to agricultural lands in the basin and neither used by crops nor intercepted by BMPs in a Soil Management Unit, based on NLEW calculations. This is not an in- stream loading value. Nitrogen loss reductions were achieved through the combination of fertilization rate decreases, cropping shifts, BMP implementation, and cropland acreage fluctuation. The most significant factor is shifts from crops which require high nitrogen inputs to crops which require little or no nitrogen. Overall, NLEW estimates the following factors contributed to the total nitrogen loss reduction according to the percentages shown in Table 3. 7 Table 3. Factors that Influence Nitrogen Reduction by Percentage on Agricultural Lands, Tar- Pamlico River Basin* Factor CY2015 CY2016 CY2017 CY2018 BMP implementation 14% 14% 14% 15% Fertilization Management 15% 17% 17% 15% Cropping shift 17% 14% 17% 15% Cropland converted to grass/trees 5% 5% 5% 5% Cropland lost to idle land 6% 5% 6% 7% Cropland lost to development 1% 1% 1% 1% TOTAL 58% 56% 60% 58% *Percentages are based on a total of the reduction, not a year-to-year comparison. BMP Implementation As illustrated in Figure 2, CY2018 yielded an increase of 8 acres of nutrient scavenger crops from CY2017 and an increase of 460 acres affected by water control structures, while buffer acres remained the same. The Division of Soil and Water Conservation, Soil and Water Conservation Districts and Natural Resources Conservation Service staff continue to make refinements to the NLEW accounting process as opportunities arise. LAC members estimate annual nutrient scavenger crop acres based on crop rotations, producer cropping history, state and federal incentive programs, weather patterns, and seed prices. Buffer and water control structure BMP data is collected from state and federal cost share program active contracts, and in some cases (especially nutrient scavenger crops) BMPs that were installed without cost share funding. While there is some opportunity for variability in the data reported, LACs are including data that is the best information currently available. As additional sound data sources become available, the LACs will review these sources and update their methodology for reporting if warranted. Every effort is being made to ensure that BMPs currently being reported continue to function as designed. Verification of this functionality requires site visits to individual farm owners who may or may not be under active contract. Coastal counties have reported that despite contract expirations, the water control structures which have been checked and which are no longer covered by an operation and maintenance agreement are still being actively managed by producers. Before next year’s progress report the Division of Soil and Water Conservation intends to add an option for producers with older contracts to re-enter an operation and maintenance agreement in exchange for a discounted payment and whatever repair funds are necessary to restore structure functionality. The Division plans to coordinate outreach to Districts to determine how many producers are still farming who may need structure repairs or riser replacements. Future availability of this offer is dependent on the identification and procurement of additional funding. Contracts which are re-enrolled in the Agriculture Cost 8 Share Program or structures which are field-verified as still functioning will be retained in future accounting, but other expired contracts will be removed. Overall, the total acres of implementation of BMPs have increased since the baseline, as illustrated in Figure 2. When actual acres of BMPs installed through federal, state and local cost share programs are compared to the total cropland (588,233 acres), over half of all reported cropland receives some kind of BMP treatment; this does not include farmer-installed BMPs that are not funded by cost share programs except in some cases where SWCD staff is made aware of work that has been completed. Additionally, the treatment estimate is probably greater because it does not take into account the entire drainage area treated by buffers in the piedmont, which is generally 5 to 10 times higher than the actual acres of the buffer shown in Figure 2.2 From 2001 through 2006, the NLEW program captured buffers 50’ and wider as one category. After the 2007 update, categories for 70’ and 100’ buffers were added. In CY2006 the buffers larger than 50’ were redistributed into these new categories. In CY2011 50’ and 70’ buffers were combined into a single category for everything larger than 50’ but less than 100’. Figure 2: Nutrient Reducing BMPs Present on Agricultural Lands for Baseline (1991) and Installed from 2015-2018, Tar-Pamlico River Basin* *The acres of buffers listed represent actual acres. Acres affected by the buffer could be 5 to 10 times larger in the Piedmont than the acreage shown above.2 2 Bruton, Jeffrey Griffin. 2004. Headwater Catchments: Estimating Surface Drainage Extent Across North Carolina and Correlations Between Landuse, Near Stream, and Water Quality Indicators in the Piedmont Physiographic Region. Ph.D. Dissertation. Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27606.http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/theses/available/etd-03282004-174056/ 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 Scavenger Crop 20' Buffer 30' Buffer 50' Buffer 100' Buffer Water Control Structure Ac r e s BMPs Baseline 2015 2016 2017 2018 9 Additional Nutrient BMPs At the field level, a number of BMPs contribute to nutrient reduction and subsequent water quality improvement. Not all BMP types are tracked by NLEW. These include: livestock-related nitrogen and phosphorus reducing BMPs, BMPs that reduce soil and phosphorus loss, and BMPs that do not have enough scientific research to support estimating a nitrogen benefit. The BOC believes it is worthwhile to recognize these practices. Table 4 identifies BMPs not accounted for in NLEW and tracks their implementation in the basin since CY2015. Increased implementation numbers are evident in CY2018 across all BMP types since the baseline. Some of these BMPs will yield reductions in nitrogen loss that are not reflected in the NLEW accounting in this report but will benefit the estuary. Table 4: Nutrient-Reducing Best Management Practices Not Accounted for in NLEW, 2015-2018, Tar-Pamlico River Basin* BMP Units 2015 2016 2017 2018 Diversion Feet 433,166 440,614 441,962 441,962 Fencing (USDA Programs) Feet 261,884 262,519 262,519 262,519 Field Border Acres 1,297 1,303 1,306 1,308 Grassed Waterway Acres 2,569 2,587 2,602 2,634 Livestock Exclusion Feet 239,281 239,868 239,868 239,868 Sod Based Rotation Acres 80,836 90,911 98,681 101,150 Tillage Management Acres 55,878 62,151 67,899 1,493 Terraces Feet 371,936 371,936 371,936 371,936 *Values represent active contracts in State and Federal cost share programs. Fertilization Management Better nutrient management has resulted in farmers in the Tar-Pamlico River Basin reducing their nitrogen application from baseline levels. Figure 3 indicates that nitrogen rates for the major crops in the basin have reduced from the baseline period. In CY2018 nitrogen rates increased by 5 lbs/acre on corn, decreased by 26 lbs/acre on bermuda, decreased by 5 lbs/acre on fescue, and remained stable for cotton, soybeans, tobacco, and wheat compared to CY2017. Most pastures are under-fertilized throughout the Tar-Pamlico basin. Pasture and hayland are typically not supplemented with inorganic fertilizers. Over time there has been an economic incentive for producers to improve nitrogen management. Factors Identified by LACs Contributing to Reduced Nitrogen Rates since the Baseline Year ➢ Economic decisions and fluctuating farm incomes. ➢ Increased education & outreach on nutrient management (NC Cooperative Extension held nutrient management training sessions and since 2004 approximately 2,000 farmers and applicators received training) ➢ Mandatory waste management plans ➢ The federal government tobacco quota buy-out reducing tobacco acreage. ➢ Neuse & Tar-Pamlico Nutrient Strategies. 10 Fertilizer rates and standard application practices are revisited annually by LACs using data from farmers, commercial applicators and state and federal agencies’ professional estimates. Figure 3. Average Annual Nitrogen Fertilization Rate (lb/ac) for the Major Agricultural Crops for the Baseline (1991) and 2015-2018, Tar-Pamlico River Basin 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Bermuda Corn Cotton Fescue Soybeans Tobacco Wheat Ni t r o g e n R a t e ( l b s / a c r e ) Crops Baseline 2015 2016 2017 2018 11 Cropping Shifts The LACs calculated the cropland acreage by utilizing crop data reported by farmers to the USDA-Farm Service Agency. Each crop requires different amounts of nitrogen and utilizes the nitrogen applied with different efficiency rates. Changes in the mix of crops grown can have a significant impact on the cumulative yearly nitrogen loss reduction. The BOC anticipates that the basin will see additional crop shifts in the upcoming year based on changing commodity prices and wet weather. Figure 4 shows crop acres and shifts for the last four years compared to the baseline. Some crops have remained relatively stable, while others show more volatility. Cotton prices were stable in CY2018, so cotton cultivation increased by 20,700 acres from CY2017. Due to a small price increase in CY2018 corn increased by approximately 2,782 acres in CY2018. Falling soybean prices resulted in a decrease of 10,444 soybean acres from CY2017 to CY2018. A return to wet conditions during the winter planting season resulted in an overall decrease of 2,946 wheat acres between CY2017 and CY2018. A host of factors from individual to global determine crop choices. Figure 4. Acreage of Major Crops for the Baseline (1991) and 2015-2018, Tar-Pamlico River Basin 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Hay Corn Cotton Soybeans Tobacco Wheat Ac r e s Crops Baseline 2015 2016 2017 2018 12 Land Use Change to Development, Idle Land and Cropland Conversion The number of cropland acres fluctuates every year in the Tar-Pamlico River Basin due to cropland conversion, idle land and development. Each year, some cropland is permanently lost to development or converted to grass or trees and likely to be ultimately lost from agricultural production. Idle land is agricultural land that is currently out of production but could be brought back into production at any time. Currently it is estimated that over 12,000 acres have been permanently lost to development in the basin and more than 47,328 acres have been converted to grass or trees since the 1991 baseline. For CY2018 it is estimated that there are approximately 68,706 idle acres. There is a total of 588,233 NLEW-accountable acres of cropland (see Fig. 5). In addition to these changes, LACs have noted that over 2,500 cropland acres have been converted to newly leased and constructed solar facilities. All of the above estimates come from the LAC members’ best professional judgment, USDA-FSA records and county planning department data. The total crop acres are obtained from USDA-FSA and NC Agricultural Statistics annual reports. Cropland acres have continued to decrease from the baseline period (see Figure 5). Figure 5. NLEW-Accounted Cropland Acres in the Tar-Pamlico River Basin, Baseline (1991) - 2018 *Some of the acres represented here are acres counted twice due to double-cropping on the same field. Some acreage reduction represents double-cropped wheat-soybeans converted to a full-season soybean crop. 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 Baseline 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Ac r e s Years 13 Phosphorus Phosphorus Indicators for CY2018: The qualitative indicators included in Table 5 show the relative changes in land use and management parameters and their relative effect on phosphorus loss risk in the basin. This approach was recommended by the Phosphorus Technical Advisory Committee (PTAC) in 2005 due to the difficulty of developing an aggregate phosphorus tool parallel to the nitrogen NLEW tool and was approved by the EMC. Table 5 builds upon the data provided in the 2005 PTAC report, which included all available data at the time ending with data from 2003. This report adds phosphorus indicator data for CY2015 through CY2018. With the exception of animal waste P and soil test P, all other parameters indicate less risk of phosphorus loss than in the baseline year. Contributing to the reduced risk of phosphorus loss is the increase of nutrient reducing BMPs in the basin. As indicated in Table 5, the acres affected in the basin by water control structures have steadily increased over the past three years. It should also be noted that the soil test phosphorus median number reported for the basin fluctuates each year due to the nature of how the data is collected and compiled. The soil test phosphorus median numbers shown in Table 5 are generated by using North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (NCDA&CS) soil test laboratory results from voluntary soil testing and the data is reported by the NCDA&CS. The number of samples collected each year varies. The data only includes samples submitted for cropland. It does not include soil tests that were submitted to private laboratories. The soil test results from the NCDA&CS database represent data from entire counties in the basin, and have not been adjusted to include only those samples collected in the river basin area. Phosphorous Technical Assistance Committee (PTAC) The PTAC’s overall purpose was to establish a phosphorus accounting method for agriculture in the basin. It determined that a defensible, aggregated, county-scale accounting method for estimating phosphorus losses from agricultural lands is not currently feasible due to “the complexity of phosphorus behavior and transport within a watershed, the lack of suitable data required to adequately quantify the various mechanisms of phosphorus loss and retention within watersheds of the basin, and the problem with not being able to capture agricultural conditions as they existed in 1991”. The PTAC instead developed recommendations for qualitatively tracking relative changes in practices in land use and management related to agricultural activity that either increase or decrease the risk of phosphorus loss from agricultural lands in the basin on an annual basis. . 14 Table 5. Relative Changes in Land Use and Management Parameters and their Relative Effect on Phosphorus Loss Risk in the Tar-Pamlico Parameter Units Source 1991 Baseline CY2015 CY2016 CY2017 CY2018 1991 - 2018 Change CY2018 P Loss Risk +/- Agricultural land Acres FSA 807,026 614,715 593,530 597,066 588,233 -27% - Cropland conversion (to grass & trees) Acres USDA- NRCS & NCACSP 660 47,007 47,134 47,269 47,328 7,071% - CRP / WRP (cumulative) Acres USDA- NRCS 19,241 41,833 41,833 41,833 41,833 117% - Conservation Tillage * (cumulative) Acres USDA- NRCS & NCACSP 41,415 55,878 62,151 62,151 62,492 51% - Vegetated buffers (cumulative) Acres USDA- NRCS & NCACSP 50,836 218,440 218,440 218,440 218,440 330% - Water control structures (cumulative) Acres Affected USDA- NRCS & NCACSP 52,984 91,308 92,208 92,208 92,668 75% - Scavenger crop Acres LAC 13,272 85,380 86,109 83,312 83,382 528% - Animal waste P lbs of P/ yr NC Ag Statistics 13,597,734 15,011,136 14,805,403 14,855,289 14,654,365 8% + Soil test P median P Index NCDA& CS 83 79 84 85 93 12% + * Conservation tillage is being practiced on additional acres but this number only reflects active cost share contract acres, not acres where contracts have expired or where farmers have implemented conservation tillage without cost share assistance. According to the 2012 Ag Census, conservation tillage (including no-till) was practiced on 420,550 crop acres in the Tar-Pamlico River Basin.3 Based on the these findings, the BOC recommends that no additional management actions be required of agricultural operations in the basin at this time to comply with the “no net increase above the 1991 levels” phosphorus goal of the agriculture rule. The BOC will continue to track and report the identified set of qualitative phosphorus indicators to the EMC annually, and to bring any concerns raised by the results of this effort to the EMC’s attention as they arise, along with recommendations for any appropriate action. The BOC expects that BMP implementation will continue to increase throughout the basin in future years, and notes that BMPs installed for nitrogen, pathogen and sediment control often provide significant phosphorus benefits as well. 3 USDA NASS, 2012 Census of Agriculture, Census by Watershed (HUC 030201). Available at: www.agcensus.usda.gov/ Publications/2012/Online_Resources/Watersheds/sag03.pdf 15 Looking Forward The Tar-Pamlico BOC will continue to report on rule implementation, relying heavily on Soil and Water Conservation District staff to compile crop reports. The BOC continues to encourage counties to implement additional BMPs to further reduce nutrient losses. Because cropping shifts are susceptible to various pressures, the BOC is working with LACs in all counties to continue BMP implementation that provides lasting reduction in nitrogen loss in the basin. Funding Ongoing agriculture rule reporting has incorporated data processing efficiencies and improvements in recent years. NLEW upgrades have allowed LAC members to more actively participate in the compilation of data and analysis of nitrogen loss trends, and a new Division of Soil and Water Conservation contracting system has helped optimize BMP documentation efforts. In CY2018 soil and water conservation districts spent over $322,000 through the Agriculture Cost Share Program in the Tar-Pamlico River Basin, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service spent over $1,609,100 through the Environmental Quality Assistance Program in the counties of the Tar-Pamlico River Basin. These programs have all helped fund erosion and nutrient reducing BMPs in the Tar-Pamlico basin. The EPA 319(h) grant program, which is administered by the Department of Environmental Quality, has approximately $1.4 million in competitive grant funds available statewide for implementation of approved nonpoint source management programs. Grant funds from the 319(h) program can be used to supplement technical assistance, match cost share funding, and support BMP implementation. The Division of Soil and Water Conservation, funded through an EPA 319(h) grant, expends approximately $50,000 on agricultural reporting staff support annually. Over 150 farmers, local staff, and agency personnel with other responsibilities serve on the Neuse and Tar-Pamlico LACs in a voluntary capacity. Basin Oversight Committee members meet at least once per year to review and approve this annual progress report, which includes time spent outside of that annual meeting to review draft documents and approve methodology changes. Participation by so many members of the local agricultural community demonstrates a commitment toward achieving the nutrient strategy’s long-term goals. Basin Oversight Committee recognizes the dynamic nature of agricultural business. ➢ Changes in the world economies, energy or trade policies. ➢ Changes in government programs (i.e., commodity support or environmental regulations) ➢ Weather (i.e., long periods of drought or rain) ➢ Scientific advances in agronomics (i.e., production of new types of crops or improvements in crop sustainability) ➢ Plant disease or pest problems (i.e., viruses or foreign pests) ➢ Urban encroachment (i.e., crop selection shifts as fields become smaller) ➢ Age of farmer (i.e., as retirement approaches farmers may move from row crops to cattle) 16 Watershed technicians are no longer eligible for state and federal funding, so the annual local progress reports fall on the LACs without local technical assistance to compile the data for the annual reports. Few currently serving LAC members were active during the stakeholder process for the Agriculture Rule, so some institutional knowledge about annual reporting requirements has been lost. As a result, training of new Soil and Water Conservation District staff and LAC members regarding rule requirements and reporting is ongoing. Funding is an integral part in the success of reaching and maintaining the goal through technical assistance and BMP implementation. It is also important for data collection and reporting. At the present time there is also no funding for a basin coordinator. Part of the responsibilities of the technicians and basin coordinators was to assist with the reporting requirements for the Neuse and Tar-Pamlico Agriculture Rules. In addition to other duties, the NCDA&CS Division of Soil and Water Conservation Nonpoint Source Planning Coordinator has been assigned the data collection, compilation and reporting duties for the Agriculture Rules for all existing Nutrient Sensitive Waters Strategies. Now that watershed technician funding has been eliminated, a more centralized approach to data collection and verification is necessary. This evolving approach will involve GIS analysis and more streamlined FSA acreage documentation. The LACs will be trained to handle the new workload to the best of their ability. Because district staff has neither the time nor financial resources to synthesize county level data, this centralized approach will come at the expense of local knowledge. Annual agricultural reporting is required by the rules; therefore continued funding for the Division’s remaining Nonpoint Source Planning Coordinator position is essential for compliance. The BOC will consider data from relevant studies as they are completed and become available and will consider the results as they relate to nutrient loadings from land based sources and uses. Previously, funding was available for research on conservation practice effectiveness, realistic yields, and nitrogen use efficiencies. Due to eligibility changes and other funding constraints, it is unlikely that new data will be developed. Prior funding sources for such research, which provided much of the scientific information on which NLEW was based, are no longer available. Should new funding be made available, additional North Carolina-specific research information could be incorporated into future NLEW updates. Conclusion Significant progress has been made in agricultural nitrogen loss reduction, and the agricultural community consistently reaches its 30% nitrogen reduction and no net increase in phosphorus goals. However, the measurable effects of these BMPs on overall in-stream nutrient reduction may take years to develop due to the nature of non-point source pollution. The BOC supports new funding for research and implementation to further improve reductions and enhance agricultural nutrient reporting, including identification of additional sources. Nitrogen reduction values presented in this annual summary of agricultural reductions reflect “edge-of- management unit” calculations that contribute to achieving the overall 30% nitrogen loss 17 reduction goal. Significant quantities of agricultural BMPs have been installed since the adoption and implementation of the nutrient management strategy, and agriculture continues to do its part towards achieving the overall goal of a 30% reduction of nitrogen and no net increase of phosphorus delivered to the Pamlico estuary.