Cape_Fear_Modeling_Instream_Flow

Cape Fear River Basin Model Instream Flow Analysis
This document contains the complete set of charts and tables developed during the analysis
developed as part of the March 2008 study of future water use in the Cape Fear River Basin.

VI. Instream Flow Evaluation

Predicted stream flows at certain points of interest were evaluated. The purpose of examining
instream flows is to evaluate potential impacts on aquatic ecosystems - including fish and other
aquatic organisms - that could be caused by changes in flows resulting from reservoir operations or
water supply withdrawals. The following table shows the nodes of interest that were identified
through discussions with the NC Wildlife Resources Commission. NCWRC also expressed interest
in assessing instream flows on Rockfish Creek, Upper Little River and Rocky River, but because of
the way the system is modeled, this was not possible.

Table: Nodes of Interest for Instream Flow
River Location / Section Node
Deep River Middle portion 280
Haw River Middle portion 360
Haw River Lower portion 410
Cape Fear River Lillington 550
Deep River Lower portion 640
Little River Lower portion 720
Cape Fear River Lock and Dam #3 780
Cape Fear River Lock and Dam #2 790
Cape Fear River Lock and Dam #1 820

The following map shows the geographic locations of the points of interest.

Analysis of Instream Flows

An adaptation of the Tennant Method1 for evaluating instream flows was used for evaluating the
modeled instream flows. Under this method, daily stream flows are compared to the historical
average annual flow at the point of interest. The historical average annual flow was determined
using the model under the unimpaired scenario.

Depending on the percentage of annual flow, the Tennant Method provides guidelines for evaluating
the adequacy of the flow for the given time of the year. Table 2 summarizes these guidelines.
1 Instream Flows for Riverine Resource Stewardship: 2004 Revised Edition, Multiple Authors .

Table 2: Modified Tennant Method Guidelines for Evaluating Instream Flows

The Tennant method is used as a preliminary screening device to see how
projected increases in water use will affect stream flows at selected locations.
When new or increased water withdrawals are planned, the permitting process
will require site-specific instream flow studies to determine required instream
flow levels.
The following plots show an example of a summary of stream flow levels using the
Tennant Method for one of the points of interests identified in Table 1. Daily
stream flows at all points of interest were estimated using the model for the entire
75-year record. Then, the percentage of days over the 75-year period within each of
the various stream flow ranges was calculated.
The complete summary of results at all points of interest will be made available on
the Division of Water Resources website under Cape Fear River Basin Planning.

Description of
Flow Levels March to May June to November December to February
Level 1 < 10% of QAA* Severe Degradation Severe Degradation Severe Degradation
Level 2 10 - 20% of QAA Poor or Minimum Fair or Degrading Fair or Degrading
Level 3 20 - 30% of QAA Fair or Degrading Good Good
Level 4 30 - 40% of QAA Good Excellent Excellent
Level 5 40 - 50% of QAA Excellent Outstanding Outstanding
Level 6 50 - 60% of QAA Outstanding Outstanding Outstanding
Level 7
60 - 100% of
QAA Optimum Optimum Optimum
Level 8
100 - 200% of
QAA Optimum to Flushing Optimum to Flushing Optimum to Flushing
Level 9 >200 of QAA
Flushing or Maximum
Flow Flushing or Maximum Flow Flushing or Maximum Flow

*QAA is the Average Annual Flow

*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 280 = 227 mgd

Table: Stream Condition: Middle Deep River (Node 280)
Level Dec-Feb Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 1.9% 2.9% 4.1% 4.0%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 5.3% 6.7% 7.1% 7.8%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.5% 6.8% 6.6% 6.8%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.2% 6.1% 6.8% 6.8%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.8% 6.6% 6.8% 7.1%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 23.6% 22.5% 21.6% 21.0%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 28.4% 27.6% 26.7% 26.5%
9 >200 of QAA 20.9% 20.5% 20.2% 19.9%

Stream Condition Middle Deep River (Node 280)
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 280 = 227 mgd

Mar-May Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

< 10% of QAA* 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 - 20% of QAA 3.5% 5.5% 6.5% 6.5%
20 - 30% of QAA 5.4% 8.0% 8.3% 8.6%
30 - 40% of QAA 6.9% 6.7% 6.6% 6.7%
40 - 50% of QAA 7.3% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1%
50 - 60% of QAA 7.1% 6.5% 6.8% 6.9%
60 - 100% of QAA 23.3% 21.3% 20.8% 20.5%
100 - 200% of
QAA 26.6% 25.8% 25.2% 25.0%
>200 of QAA 19.5% 19.1% 18.8% 18.7%

Stream Condition Middle Deep River (Node 280)
June - November
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 280 = 227 mgd

June-Nov Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

< 10% of QAA* 7.7% 2.4% 3.3% 3.2%
10 - 20% of QAA 19.5% 27.1% 30.8% 31.1%
20 - 30% of QAA 17.6% 23.4% 22.1% 22.6%
30 - 40% of QAA 11.8% 10.9% 9.8% 9.9%
40 - 50% of QAA 8.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3%
50 - 60% of QAA 5.8% 5.0% 4.6% 4.6%
60 - 100% of QAA 13.0% 10.2% 9.4% 9.0%
100 - 200% of
QAA 10.1% 8.9% 8.3% 8.1%
>200 of QAA 6.0% 5.6% 5.2% 5.0%

Stream Condition Middle Haw River (Node 360)
December- February
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA

*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 360 = 526 mgd

Level Dec-Feb Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 2.9% 6.0% 1.4% 0.2%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 7.5% 7.8% 8.4% 7.2%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 7.8% 7.1% 7.0% 8.0%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 8.2% 7.9% 8.0% 8.2%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 8.2% 7.6% 8.0% 8.2%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 24.3% 23.0% 24.2% 25.4%
8 100 - 200% of QAA 24.8% 24.4% 26.0% 26.1%
9 >200 of QAA 16.0% 16.2% 16.9% 16.8%

Stream Condition Middle Haw River (Node 360)
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 360 = 526 mgd

Level Mar-May Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 1.5% 7.6% 3.5% 0.7%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 6.3% 8.1% 8.3% 8.3%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 8.8% 9.2% 8.9% 8.9%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 10.4% 8.3% 9.4% 9.9%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 9.7% 7.7% 8.3% 8.8%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 26.1% 22.6% 24.7% 25.7%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 22.3% 20.3% 21.6% 22.3%
9 >200 of QAA 14.9% 14.9% 15.4% 15.4%

Stream Condition Middle Haw River (Node 360)
June - November
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 360 = 526 mgd

Level June-Nov Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 6.2% 29.5% 10.2% 2.3%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 22.3% 24.1% 32.6% 31.6%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 19.6% 12.4% 18.0% 24.1%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 12.8% 7.1% 9.6% 11.3%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 8.7% 4.9% 5.6% 6.5%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 5.8% 3.4% 4.2% 4.6%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 11.6% 7.7% 8.5% 8.7%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 7.8% 6.2% 6.5% 6.5%
9 >200 of QAA 5.2% 4.6% 4.6% 4.4%

Stream Condition Lower Haw River (Node 410)
December- February
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 410 = 1009 mgd

Level Dec-Feb Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 5.1% 5.5% 3.6% 1.9%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 6.2% 6.2% 6.7% 7.5%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.1% 6.1% 6.0% 6.2%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 7.7% 7.5% 7.3% 7.2%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 7.5% 7.0% 7.0% 7.3%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 20.5% 20.8% 21.9% 22.3%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 25.8% 25.9% 26.2% 26.5%
9 >200 of QAA 20.4% 20.7% 21.2% 21.1%

Stream Condition Lower Haw River (Node 410)
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 410 = 1009 mgd

Level Mar-May Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 3.6% 5.7% 4.4% 3.1%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 6.3% 7.0% 6.8% 6.7%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 8.3% 8.3% 8.1% 8.5%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 9.2% 7.9% 8.3% 8.3%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 8.0% 7.5% 7.4% 7.8%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 23.4% 22.4% 23.3% 23.8%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 23.0% 22.2% 23.0% 23.5%
9 >200 of QAA 18.1% 18.1% 18.4% 18.4%

Stream Condition Lower Haw River (Node 410)
June - November
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 410 = 1009 mgd

Level June-Nov Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 14.4% 25.1% 17.0% 9.4%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 23.3% 25.0% 28.6% 31.1%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 16.7% 12.4% 14.8% 18.3%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 10.2% 7.5% 8.5% 9.5%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.9% 5.9% 6.3% 6.6%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 5.0% 3.8% 4.0% 4.4%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 10.1% 8.1% 8.5% 8.6%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 8.0% 7.1% 7.2% 7.3%
9 >200 of QAA 5.4% 5.0% 5.0% 4.9%

Stream Condition Cape Fear River at Lillington (Node 550)
December- February
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 550 = 2182 mgd

Level Dec-Feb Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 1.0% 2.1% 2.6% 2.6%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 5.2% 9.0% 9.7% 11.1%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 5.4% 4.7% 5.4% 5.2%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.5% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.6% 6.2% 6.2% 6.5%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.5% 6.0% 6.2% 6.2%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 20.4% 19.1% 18.0% 17.2%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 25.6% 24.3% 23.5% 23.0%
9 >200 of QAA 22.8% 22.6% 22.2% 21.7%

Stream Condition Cape Fear River at Lillington (Node 550)
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 550 = 2182 mgd
Level Mar-May Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 4.7% 11.0% 12.4% 13.1%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 6.3% 6.5% 6.2% 6.4%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 7.5% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 7.3% 6.7% 7.1% 7.1%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 7.0% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 22.1% 20.0% 19.4% 19.2%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 24.4% 22.8% 22.3% 21.9%
9 >200 of QAA 20.0% 19.7% 19.4% 19.2%

Stream Condition Cape Fear River at Lillington (Node 550)
June - November
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 550 = 2182 mgd

Level June-Nov Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 18.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.4%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 21.5% 51.0% 55.8% 57.5%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 14.8% 8.8% 7.5% 7.2%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 9.9% 6.0% 5.4% 5.2%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.0% 4.5% 4.1% 3.8%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 4.8% 3.2% 2.9% 2.7%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 10.0% 7.6% 6.8% 6.7%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 8.9% 7.8% 7.1% 6.7%
9 >200 of QAA 5.9% 5.3% 4.8% 4.7%

Stream Condition Lower Deep River (Node 640)
December- February
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 640 = 930 mgd

Level Dec-Feb Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.2%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 5.4% 5.6% 6.2% 6.1%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 5.7% 5.7% 6.5% 6.5%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.2% 6.1% 6.4% 6.4%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.1% 6.1% 6.6% 6.6%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 5.9% 5.8% 5.5% 5.5%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 18.6% 18.6% 18.2% 18.1%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 24.5% 24.3% 23.7% 23.7%
9 >200 of QAA 25.1% 25.2% 24.1% 23.8%

Stream Condition Lower Deep River (Node 640)
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 640 = 930 mgd

Level Mar-May Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 1.5% 3.2% 3.6% 3.7%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 5.2% 6.1% 6.6% 6.7%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 7.1% 6.9% 7.2% 7.3%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.7% 6.5% 6.9% 6.8%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.5%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.3% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 20.6% 19.7% 19.2% 19.0%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 24.6% 24.1% 23.6% 23.5%
9 >200 of QAA 21.4% 21.1% 20.5% 20.4%

Stream Condition Lower Deep River (Node 640)
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 640 = 930 mgd

Level Mar-May Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 1.5% 3.2% 3.6% 3.7%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 5.2% 6.1% 6.6% 6.7%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 7.1% 6.9% 7.2% 7.3%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.7% 6.5% 6.9% 6.8%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.5%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.3% 6.3% 6.1% 6.2%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 20.6% 19.7% 19.2% 19.0%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 24.6% 24.1% 23.6% 23.5%
9 >200 of QAA 21.4% 21.1% 20.5% 20.4%

Stream Condition Lower Deep River (Node 640)
June - November
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 640 = 930 mgd

Level June-Nov Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 24.8% 33.6% 35.7% 36.1%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 20.9% 17.6% 17.6% 17.4%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 12.1% 10.0% 9.8% 9.8%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 8.0% 7.0% 6.6% 6.6%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 5.7% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 4.1% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 9.4% 8.9% 8.4% 8.4%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 8.9% 8.3% 7.9% 7.9%
9 >200 of QAA 5.9% 5.8% 5.4% 5.3%

Stream Condition Lower Little River (Node 720)
December- February
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 720 = 379 mgd

Level Dec-Feb Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.4% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 25.9% 25.7% 25.9% 26.0%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 32.7% 32.2% 32.8% 32.7%
9 >200 of QAA 19.3% 19.1% 19.3% 19.4%

Stream Condition Lower Little River (Node 720)
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 720 = 379 mgd
Level Mar-May Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 3.6% 4.4% 3.9% 3.9%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 5.1% 5.5% 5.4% 5.3%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.5% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 7.2% 7.1% 7.0% 7.1%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.6%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 23.4% 22.5% 23.2% 23.3%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 28.7% 28.1% 28.5% 28.5%
9 >200 of QAA 18.1% 17.8% 18.0% 18.1%

Stream Condition Lower Little River (Node 720)
June - November
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 720 = 379 mgd
Level June-Nov Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 7.7% 13.4% 10.3% 10.2%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 16.9% 17.4% 17.1% 17.1%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 15.4% 13.6% 14.4% 14.4%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 12.4% 11.0% 11.6% 11.7%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 8.5% 7.8% 8.5% 8.5%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 7.0% 6.5% 6.8% 6.7%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 14.9% 13.9% 14.4% 14.5%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 11.1% 10.5% 10.9% 10.9%
9 >200 of QAA 6.0% 5.8% 5.9% 5.9%

Stream Condition Lock & Dam #3
December- February
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Lock & Dam #1 (Node 780) = 3196 mgd

Level Dec-Feb Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 1.9% 2.9% 4.1% 4.0%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 5.3% 6.7% 7.1% 7.8%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.5% 6.8% 6.6% 6.8%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.2% 6.1% 6.8% 6.8%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.8% 6.6% 6.8% 7.1%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 23.6% 22.5% 21.6% 21.0%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 28.4% 27.6% 26.7% 26.5%
9 >200 of QAA 20.9% 20.5% 20.2% 19.9%

Stream Condition Lock & Dam #3
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Lock & Dam #1 (Node 780) = 3196 mgd

Level Mar-May Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 3.5% 5.5% 6.5% 6.5%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 5.4% 8.0% 8.3% 8.6%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.9% 6.7% 6.6% 6.7%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 7.3% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 7.1% 6.5% 6.8% 6.9%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 23.3% 21.3% 20.8% 20.5%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 26.6% 25.8% 25.2% 25.0%
9 >200 of QAA 19.5% 19.1% 18.8% 18.7%

Stream Condition Lock & Dam #3
June - November
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Lock & Dam #1 (Node 780) = 3196 mgd

Level June-Nov Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 7.7% 2.4% 3.3% 3.2%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 19.5% 27.1% 30.8% 31.1%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 17.6% 23.4% 22.1% 22.6%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 11.8% 10.9% 9.8% 9.9%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 8.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 5.8% 5.0% 4.6% 4.6%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 13.0% 10.2% 9.4% 9.0%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 10.1% 8.9% 8.3% 8.1%
9 >200 of QAA 6.0% 5.6% 5.2% 5.0%

Stream Condition Lock & Dam #2
December- February
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Lock & Dam #2 (Node 790) = 3196 mgd

Level Dec-Feb Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 6.7% 1.8% 2.5% 2.5%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 12.4% 20.3% 22.0% 22.2%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 12.0% 14.1% 14.1% 14.6%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 10.3% 9.4% 8.8% 8.8%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 7.8% 7.1% 7.3% 7.2%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.7% 6.4% 6.0% 6.4%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 18.4% 16.7% 16.1% 15.5%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 16.1% 14.9% 14.3% 14.2%
9 >200 of QAA 9.5% 9.2% 8.8% 8.6%

Stream Condition Lock & Dam #2
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Lock & Dam #2 (Node 790) = 3196 mgd

Level Mar-May Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 9.2% 10.5% 13.4% 13.7%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 10.6% 16.0% 15.3% 15.8%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 9.1% 8.6% 8.4% 8.5%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 7.6% 6.9% 7.0% 7.0%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.8% 6.1% 6.0% 6.1%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 19.1% 17.3% 16.5% 16.1%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 20.7% 20.0% 19.3% 19.0%
9 >200 of QAA 14.5% 13.8% 13.5% 13.4%

Stream Condition Lock & Dam #2
June - November
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Lock & Dam #2 (Node 790) = 3196 mgd

Level June-Nov Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 3.5% 1.0% 1.4% 1.4%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 11.4% 14.8% 17.6% 17.6%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 11.7% 16.2% 15.6% 16.2%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 8.8% 9.0% 8.1% 8.2%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 7.6% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.0% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 17.6% 15.3% 14.5% 14.2%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 19.2% 18.1% 17.5% 17.3%
9 >200 of QAA 14.2% 13.9% 13.6% 13.3%

Stream Condition Lock & Dam #1
December- February
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Lock & Dam #1 (Node 820) = 3654 mgd

Level Dec-Feb Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 1.9% 3.2% 4.0% 4.1%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 5.5% 6.5% 6.9% 7.6%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.1% 6.4% 6.7% 6.6%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.3% 6.3% 6.6% 6.8%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.8% 6.6% 6.8% 7.1%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 23.2% 22.1% 21.0% 20.5%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 29.3% 28.3% 27.7% 27.2%
9 >200 of QAA 20.6% 20.3% 19.9% 19.7%

Stream Condition Lock & Dam #1
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Lock & Dam #1 (Node 820) = 3654 mgd
Level Mar-May Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 3.7% 7.4% 8.3% 8.6%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 5.4% 7.2% 7.0% 7.1%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 6.8% 6.4% 6.6% 6.6%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 6.9% 6.8% 7.0% 7.1%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 7.0% 6.3% 6.1% 6.3%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 22.7% 20.9% 20.3% 20.0%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 27.5% 26.2% 25.5% 25.3%
9 >200 of QAA 19.6% 18.7% 18.4% 18.3%

Stream Condition Lock & Dam #1
June - November
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unimpaired 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands% of Days at Flow Level< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Lock & Dam #1 (Node 820) = 3654 mgd

Level June-Nov Unimpaired
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands

1 < 10% of QAA* 8.1% 6.4% 9.8% 10.8%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 19.1% 27.6% 28.7% 29.2%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 16.8% 19.5% 18.3% 17.9%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 11.5% 9.8% 9.0% 8.8%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 8.6% 6.7% 6.1% 6.2%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 6.0% 4.8% 4.8% 4.6%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 13.2% 10.4% 9.4% 8.9%
8
100 - 200% of
QAA 10.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.3%
9 >200 of QAA 6.2% 5.8% 5.3% 5.2%