Chapter 11

Chapter 11 - Population Growth and Development 123
Chapter 11
Changes in Our Coastal Communities
-Population Growth, Development and Water Quality
11.1 Our Changing Waterfronts and Loss of Public Access

Waterfronts in North Carolina are changing. Historic landmarks for those that have been born
and raised on the waterfronts are disappearing; as are fish houses and fishing fleets. These
historic uses of waterfronts are being replaced with “urban waterfronts”. Many waterfronts are
redeveloping into waterfronts more like Wilmington’s waterfront – the state’s only designated
“urban waterfront”. Redevelopment projects on historically working waterfronts include
activities such as restaurants, condominiums and mixed-use buildings. Fishing fleets are being
replaced by yachts, charter boats or sport fishing boats. Property values are soaring making it a
challenge for historic waterfront business to stay in operation, when selling the business and
property is more profitable. Reports of median selling prices for soundside lots on Hatteras
Island jumping from $82,000 in 1998 to $412,000 in 2005 are not uncommon. Profits like these
are hard to turn down, but with these selling prices comes a change of community structure and
history. Even smaller coastal communities are feeling the brunt of coastal redevelopment for
residences and businesses near the water. While land closest to the ocean has seen the first wave
of development, the second and third waves of development on the sound and tidal creeks are
already here.

Loss of Access to Public Use of Coastal Waters
North Carolina citizens and elected officials are concerned about the loss of working waterfronts,
as fewer marinas and fishing piers are available for public access. The North Carolina Marine
Fisheries Commission (MFC) recently passed a resolution asking that state leaders “recognize
the vital importance of public access to State estuarine and marine fisheries and waters”. A
resolution was also created and signed by scientists, authors and educators to preserve “the
cultural integrity and economic significance” of the commercial fishing industry in the state.
These resolutions were presented to the Joint Legislative Commission on Seafood and
Aquaculture for further action in 2006.

The Coastal Resources Commission (CRC) attempts to not only protect Public Trust Waters as
provided for by the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA), but also attempts to encourage
public access to these waters. Recognizing the demand for residences along coastal waters and
seeing the threat of loss of public access to these waters, the CRC at its March 2006 meeting
requested that a resolution be sent supporting the Joint Legislative Commission on Seafood and
Aquaculture efforts to identify ways to ensure public access to coastal waters is preserved. The
resolution calls for the creation of a Waterfront Access Study Committee to support efforts to
preserve the cultural integrity and character of eastern North Carolina.

The Waterfront Access Study Committee was to study the degree of loss and potential loss of the
diversity of uses along the North Carolina coastal shoreline, and how these losses impact access
to the public trust waters of the state. The Committee asks for the cooperation of municipalities,
public agencies, resource and facility-development granting entities, coastal developers,
businesses, and other coastal resource users to recognize and integrate enhanced waterfront-use
diversity and increased public access as beneficial factors and/or criteria in their decision
making. The Committee supports the use of limited public funds to achieve enhanced water
124 Chapter 11 - Population Growth and Development
quality, protection of natural and cultural/maritime heritage sites and resources, and maintaining
or advancing waterfront-use diversity and public access. A final committee report is available
online at: www.ncseagrant.org/waterfronts.

11.2 Population Growth and Development

North Carolina’s coastal counties are some of the fastest growing areas in the state and the
associated development is impacting water quality. Three of the ten counties in the basin are
expected to experience growth rates in excess of thirty-five percent by 2020 (Table 25). As the
counties in the Pasquotank River basin continue to grow there will likely be a loss of natural
areas and an increase in the amount of impervious surface associated with new homes and
businesses. Impacts are quickly felt with population increases resulting in an increase in runoff
from roads and new developments, increase in wastewater treatment options, a change in the
shoreline fronts from fish houses to condominiums, reduced public access to waterfronts, beach
closures and a decline in our freshwater, estuarine and marine resources. Between 2003-2006,
DEH Recreational Water Quality Monitoring Program in the Pasquotank Basin reported 1,259
postings of beach closure days.

County population data present projected county growth estimates based on Office of State
Planning information (June and September 2004) (Table 25). Counties with the highest expected
growth are associated with the largest municipal areas and the most densely populated subbasins
in the basin.

Table 25 County Population and Growth Estimates
County
Percent of
County in
Basin ♦
County
Population
1990
County
Population
2000
Estimated %
Growth
1990-2000
Estimated
Population
2020
Estimated %
Growth
2000-2020
Camden 100 5,904 6,885 14.2 13,038 47.2
Chowan 33 13,506 14,150 4.6 15,154 6.6
Currituck 100 13,736 18,190 24.5 33,557 45.8
Dare 89 22,746 29,967 24.1 46,455 35.5
Gates 20 9305 10516 11.5 12962 18.9
Hyde 9 5,411 5,826 7.1 5,528 -5.4
Pasquotank 100 31,298 34,897 10.3 41,567 16.0
Perquimans 100 10,447 11,366 8.1 13,831 17.8
Tyrrell 100 3,856 4,149 7.1 4,492 7.6
Washington 68 13,997 13,723 -2.0 12,529 -9.5
Subtotals 130,206 149,669 109.5 199,113 180.6
♦ Source: North Carolina Center for Geographic Information and Analysis (CGIA), 1997.
Note: The numbers reported reflect county population; however, these counties may not entirely be within the basin.
The intent is to demonstrate growth for counties located wholly or partially within the basin.

Urban growth poses one of the greatest threats to aquatic resources more than any other human
activity. Greater numbers of homes, stores, and businesses require greater quantities of water.
Growing populations not only require more water, but they also lead to the discharge and runoff
of greater quantities of waste and pollutants into the state’s streams and groundwater. Thus, just
as demand and use increases, some of the potential water supply is lost (Orr and Stuart, 2000).
The Pasquotank River basin municipal population and growth trends are reported in Table 26.
Population fluctuations occur in developing coastal communities as seasonal changes bring time-

Chapter 11 - Population Growth and Development 125
share and rental property residents creating an increased demand on municipality resources and
natural resources. County, city and town planners need to account for these fluctuations and
recognize that temporary residents may have less incentive to invest in sustainable community
development efforts. Table 26 below presents population data from Office of State Planning for
municipalities located wholly or partly within the basin. Data presented by municipality
summarize information on past growth of urban areas in the basin.

Table 26 Municipal Population and Growth Trends
Municipality County April
1980
April
1990
April
2000
Percent Change
(1980-1990)
Percent Change
(1990-2000)
Columbia Tyrell 758 836 819 10.3 -2.0
Creswell Washington 426 361 278 -15.3 -23.0
Elizabeth City Camden, Pasquotank 14,007 14,292 17,188 2.0 20.3
Hertford Perquimans 1,941 2,244 2,070 15.6 -7.8
Kill Devil Hills Dare 1,671 4,238 5,897 153.6 39.1
Kitty Hawk Dare 849 1,937 2,991 128.2 54.4
Manteo Dare 902 991 1,052 9.9 6.2
Nags Head Dare 1,020 1,838 2,700 80.2 46.9
Roper Washington 795 669 613 -15.8 -8.4
Southern Shores Dare 520 1,447 2,201 178.3 52.1
Winfall Perquimans 634 501 554 -21.0 10.6

As development in urbanizing areas consumes neighboring forests and fields, the impacts on
rivers, lakes, and streams can be significant and permanent if stormwater runoff is not controlled
(Orr and Stuart, 2000). As watershed vegetation is replaced with impervious surfaces in the
form of paved roads, buildings, parking lots, and residential homes and driveways, the ability of
the environment to absorb and diffuse the effects of natural rainfall is diminished. Urbanization
results in increased surface runoff and correspondingly earlier and higher peak streamflows after
rainfall. Flooding frequency also increases. These effects are compounded when small streams
are channelized (straightened) or piped, and storm sewer systems are installed to increase
transport of stormwater downstream. Bank scour from these frequent high flow events tends to
enlarge urban streams and increase suspended sediment. Scouring also destroys the variety of
habitat in streams, leading to degradation of benthic macroinvertebrate populations and loss of
fisheries (EPA, 1999).

11.3 Changes in Land Cover

Land cover can be an important way to evaluate the effects of land use changes on water quality.
Unfortunately, the tools and database to do this on a watershed scale are not yet available. Land
cover information from the National Resources Inventory (NRI) published by the Natural
Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) is presented only at an 8-digit hydrologic unit scale.
This information is presented to provide a picture of the different land covers and developing
land use trends in the Pasquotank River Basin, while noting that the data is outdated and does not
reflect recent development along North Carolina’s waterways.

Land cover information in this section is from the most current NRI, as developed by the NRCS
(USDA-NRCS, June 2001). The NRI is a statistically based longitudinal survey that has been
designed and implemented to assess conditions and trends of soil, water and related resources on
126 Chapter 11 - Population Growth and Development
the Nation’s nonfederal rural lands. The NRI provides results that are nationally and temporally
consistent for four points in time -- 1982, 1987, 1992 and 1997. The USDA is working to
provide updates to land cover data in the near future.

In general, NRI protocols and definitions remain fixed for each inventory year. However, part of
the inventory process is that the previously recorded data are carefully reviewed as
determinations are made for the new inventory year. For those cases where a protocol or
definition needs to be modified, all historical data must be edited and reviewed on a point-by-
point basis to make sure that data for all years are consistent and properly calibrated. The
following excerpt from the Summary Report: 1997 National Resources Inventory provides
guidance for use and interpretation of current NRI data:

The 1997 NRI database has been designed for use in detecting significant changes
in resource conditions relative to the years 1982, 1987, 1992 and 1997. All
comparisons for two points in time should be made using the new 1997 NRI
database. Comparisons made using data previously published for the 1982, 1987
or 1992 NRI may provide erroneous results because of changes in statistical
estimation protocols, and because all data collected prior to 1997 were
simultaneously reviewed (edited) as 1997 NRI data were collected.

The following Table 27 summarizes acreage and percentage of land cover from the 1997 NRI for
the major watersheds within the basin, as defined by the USGS 8-digit hydrologic units, and
compares the coverages to 1982 land cover.

Table 27 Land Cover in the Pasquotank River Basin: 1982 vs. 1997
MAJOR WATERSHEED AREAS*
Albemarle Sound
Watershed 1997 TOTALS 1982 TOTALS Land Cover Acres
(1000s)
% of
TOTAL
Acres
(1000s)
% of
TOTAL
Acres
(1000s)
% of
TOTAL
% Change
Since 1982
Cultivated. Crop 437.1 21.3 437.1 21.3 493.2 24.0 -11.4
Uncultivated. Crop 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0 0.0 10.0
Pasture 6.7 0.3 6.7 0.3 3.9 0.2 71.8
Forest 491.7 23.9 491.7 23.9 668.7 32.5 -26.5
Urban & Built-Up 68.7 3.3 68.7 3.3 36.9 1.8 86.2
Federal 271.8 13.2 271.8 13.2 69.1 3.4 293.3
Other 779.5 37.9 779.5 37.9 783.8 38.1 -0.5
Totals 2055.6 100 2055.6 100 2055.6 100.0
% of Total Basin 100 100
SUBBASINS 03-01-50 to 03-01-54
8 – Digit Hydraulic Units 03010205
* = Watershed areas defined by the 8-Digit Hydraulic Units do not necessarily coincide with subbasin titles used by DWQ.
Source: USDA, Soil Conservation Service – 1982 and 1997 NRI.

11.4 Managing Growth, Development and Stormwater Runoff

11.4.1 Assessment of Current Conditions

The DWQ, in its goals to assure that all waters of the state meet or exceed their designated uses
began an assessment of the adequacy of the current North Carolina rules intended to protect
shellfish waters. DWQ further intended to determine if there was a way to enhance the level of

Chapter 11 - Population Growth and Development 127
protection provided to these waters if the current rules were deemed to be inadequately
protecting this vital resource in North Carolina. Critical to this review was an assessment of the
adequacy of North Carolina’s stormwater rules.

North Carolina’s current stormwater regulatory programs for coastal areas were adopted in the
late 1980’s as three primary coastal programs, the Coastal (State) Stormwater Program,
Shellfishing (Class SA) Waters Program, and the Outstanding Resource Waters (ORW)
Program. Each of these programs require engineered stormwater control structures for high
density areas, but no engineered stormwater controls were required for low density projects.
High density is defined as more than 24 percent built-upon area or more than two dwelling units
per acre. Recent reviews of scientific literature show that stream degradation and impairment
occurs to varying degrees when 10-15 percent impervious cover is established without structural
stormwater controls result in water quality degradation.

In North Carolina, over 1,255 acres of Class SA, ORW waters have been closed to commercial
shellfishing due to elevated levels of bacteria since 1990. The Division of Environmental Health
Shellfish Sanitation Program notes that stormwater runoff is the primary cause of bacterial
contamination in more than 90 percent of the shellfish areas sampled. In light of the increased
acreage of areas closed to shellfish harvesting, DWQ embarked on a study of the current
conditions and impacts to the state’s shellfish waters. DWQ found that between 1988 and 2005,
73 percent of new impervious surfaces in coastal areas were constructed under low density
provisions (<24 percent impervious surfaces) that do not require engineered stormwater control
measures, but instead rely on practices such as swales for water quality protection. The use of
swales for low density areas indicate only a 25 percent effectiveness rate in reducing bacterial
contaminants and may actually contribute to bacterial loading by providing a conduit to increase
runoff volumes and rates. In contrast, engineered stormwater control structures for high density
areas include wet ponds and wetlands with 70 and 78 percent bacteriological removal rates
respectively.

Stormwater runoff carries sediment particles from drainage ditches, streambanks, parking lots,
and construction sites. These sediments bind to other pollutants such as bacteria and viruses.
Binding to soil particles protects the bacteria from ultraviolet rays that can kill the organisms.
Bacteria coated sediment accumulates in coastal shallow water bottoms, which can be easily
agitated, allowing the sediments to go in and out of suspension. Under favorable conditions,
fecal coliform bacteria can survive in bottom sediments for an extended period (Howell et al.,
1996; Sherer et al., 1992; Schillinger and Gannon, 1985). Therefore, concentrations of bacteria
measured in the water column can reflect both recent inputs as well as the resuspension of older
inputs. In addition to the bacteria and pollutants, the sediment itself threatens the oyster beds by
smothering them.

DWQ assessed recent data and information on acres of shellfish closures in six tidal creeks in
New Hanover County in the Neuse River basin (Mallin, 2006). This research focused on a
county whose population grew 25 percent between 1990 and 2000, and is expected to increase an
additional 31 percent by 2020. This research found a strong correlation between bacteria levels
and impervious surfaces in the watershed; the greater the amount of impervious surfaces, the
greater the bacteria levels. This correlation has also been documented by other research in South
Carolina’s coastal tidal creeks (Holland et al., 2004). In addition, there is a strong association
between turbidity and fecal coliform bacteria levels in these estuarine waters.

128 Chapter 11 - Population Growth and Development
Sewer overflows and poorly designed and maintained septic systems contribute to bacteria
problems. The research further notes that areas in South Florida have found that septic tanks in
porous soils can readily pass through the soil and can enter coastal waters near the shore within
hours (Paul et al., 2000). Sandy soils and high water tables appear to be unsuitable for septic
systems, yet these systems are relied on heavily in eastern North Carolina for waste management.
Ditching and draining appear to facilitate the flow of septic waste to surface waters. Further
noted is that some areas have demonstrated that fecal bacteria counts are higher upon outgoing
tides and in wetter years due to subsurface movement through saturated soils and increased
runoff due to rain.

DWQ’s assessment of research results show that the acreages of shellfish waters closed
(approximately 4, 446 acres) to shellfishing has increased significantly between 1988 and 2005,
and there have been new closures after the implementation of the current stormwater programs.
North Carolina waters permanently closed to shellfishing have increased by approximately 19
percent since 1984. The reliance on no engineered stormwater controls for low density projects
is the major identifiable shortfall in the current programs. Without changes to these programs,
there will be continued degradation of shellfishing waters.

11.4.2 Assessment of Future Conditions

With this knowledge, DWQ will proceed to determine how shellfishing waters can be better
protected from stormwater runoff and its associated spectrum of pollutants. It will be critical to
adopt programs that require control structures to be used for more development activities in an
effort to better control and treat stormwater runoff. To this effect, DWQ will be assessing
options for lowering or removing the low density option waiver from engineered stormwater
controls. Two new programs may provide these options.

The Phase II stormwater rule is one of these options. These rules meet the federal Phase II
requirements and are contained in Session Law 2006-246. These new rules will commence in
July 2007 and are in part intended to redefine low density to 12 percent and areas within ½ mile
of “shellfish resource waters”. In addition, there are more stringent stormwater design controls
defined for high density projects.

The second option is the Universal Stormwater Management Program (USMP) developed by
DWQ. This is a voluntary program that may be adopted by local government discretion. It is
hoped that the USMP will become effective in early 2007. This program does not allow for a
low density waiver.

The goal of these and other stormwater control programs and mechanisms is to point to the fact
that new construction activities do not have to degrade water resources if controls and treatment
of stormwater are put into place.

Planning for sustainable growth in the Pasquotank Basin requires awareness, understanding and
implementation of sound design and management options. The coastal environment and natural
resources contribute to our quality of life while supporting and promoting economic growth.
Communities should anticipate growth while incorporating Low Impact Development
technologies in their planning to promote long-term sustainability of our natural resources. The
NC Division of Coastal Management with NC Sea Grant and NCSU College of Design
developed The Soundfront Series, informational guides to assist property owners and
community planners and managers. The guides are available in print and on the web.
http://www.ncseagrant.org/.