Cape-Fear-Water-Resources-Plan-Draft-4-30-09

DRAFT

Cape Fear River Basin
Water Supply Plan

NC Department of Environment
and Natural Resources

March 2009

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... 4
1 Existing Water Resources and Water Balances ....................................................................12 1.1 Basin Summary ............................................................................................................. 12
(a) Basin Description .................................................................................................... 12 (b) Major Flow Modification .......................................................................................... 13
1.2 Hydrology ...................................................................................................................... 15 (a) Surface Water ......................................................................................................... 15
(i) Surface water Availability and Reliability ................................................................ 15 (ii) Basin Model Description and Assumptions ............................................................ 22
(b) Ground Water ......................................................................................................... 51 (c) Instream Flow ......................................................................................................... 63
(i) Instream and Offstream Water Use ........................................................................ 63 (ii) Quantifying Instream Flow Needs........................................................................... 64
(iii) Maintaining Ecological Integrity .............................................................................. 68 (iv) The Existing Review Process for Instream Flows .................................................. 69
(v) Incorporating Instream Flow Needs in Basinwide Modeling and Planning ............ 69 1.3 Climatology .................................................................................................................... 75
(a) Precipitation ............................................................................................................ 75 (b) Temperature ........................................................................................................... 78
1.4 Water Quality ................................................................................................................. 79 2 Water Management ...............................................................................................................80
2.1 Drought Response Plan and Implementations ............................................................. 80 2.2 Interbasin Transfer ........................................................................................................ 85
2.3 Data Management Needs ............................................................................................. 88 References: ....................................................................................................................................90
Appendices .....................................................................................................................................92 1. County Summary…………………………………………………………………………………3
(a) Demographics……………………..……………………………………………………...4 (b) Local Water Supply Plans, County Populations and Growth Trends……………….5
2. Basin Specific Issues………………………………..………………………………………….17 (a) FERC – Hydropower……………………………….………………...……………….…17
(b) The Use of Water Supply on Jordan Lake…………………………………….………20 3. Instream Flow Needs……………………………………………………………………………21
4. Drought …………………………………………………………………………………………...30 5. Ground Water……………………………………………………………...……….……………40
6. Interbasin Transfer………………………………………………………………………………58
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LIST OF TABLES
Table - 1: Cape Fear River Basin HUs .......................................................................................... 12
Table - 2: Cape Fear Water Supply Reservoirs ........................................................................... 14 Table - 3: Cape Fear Lock and Dam ............................................................................................. 14
Table - 4: List of USGS Unregulated Streamflow Gage Stations ................................................. 15 Table - 5: Randleman Lake Releases ........................................................................................... 28
Table - 6: Demands and Discharges Assumed in the Modeling (All units are in MGD) ............... 29 Table - 7: Water Supply Demand Deficits Predicted by the OASIS Model ................................... 34
Table - 8: System Inflows Reduced to 80% of Historical Natural Inflows Under 2050 demands .. 35 Table - 9: Jordan Lake Reservoir Operating Rules during Drought .............................................. 37
Table - 10: Jordan Lake Allocation (all units in MGD) ................................................................... 40 Table - 11: County Summary of Cape Fear River Basin Wells .................................................... 58
Table - 12: Modified Tennant Method Guidelines for Preliminary Screening of Instream Flow Concerns ....................................................................................................................................... 70 Table - 13: Stream Condition: Middle Deep River (Node 280) ..................................................... 72 Table - 14: Stream Condition: Middle Deep River (Node 280) ..................................................... 73
Table - 15: Stream Condition: Middle Deep River (Node 280) ..................................................... 74 Table - 16: Water Shortage Response Plan Data ......................................................................... 82
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure - 1: Map of Cape Fear River Basin HUs ............................................................................. 13
Figure - 2: Map of 6 USGS Unregulated Streamflow Gage Stations ............................................ 15 Figure - 3: Monthly Mean Flow in Cubic Feet per Second ........................................................... 16
Figure - 4: Monthly Maximum Stream Flow in Cubic Feet per Second ........................................ 17 Figure - 5: Monthly Minimum Stream Flow in Cubic Feet per Second ......................................... 17
Figure - 6: Unit Mean Flow Statistics in Cubic Feet per Second / Square Mile of Drainage Area 18 Figure - 7: Unit Maximum Flow Statistics ...................................................................................... 19
Figure - 8: Unit Minimum Flow Statistics ....................................................................................... 19 Figure - 9: Flow Duration Plots for Period of Record – Log Scale ................................................ 20
Figure - 10: Flow Duration Plots for Period of Record................................................................... 21 Figure - 11: Cape Fear Hydrologic Model Schematic .................................................................. 24
Figure - 12: Cape Fear Hydrologic Model Detailed Schematic .................................................... 25 Figure - 13: Jordan Lake Storage Volume .................................................................................... 36
Figure - 14: Jordan Lake Elevation Profile .................................................................................... 39 Figure - 15: Jordan Lake Water Supply Pool Profile – Demands Scenarios ................................ 42
Figure - 16: Jordan Lake Water Supply Pool Profile – 100 MGD Scenario .................................. 43 Figure - 17: Jordan Lake Water Supply Pool Profile – 80% Inflows ............................................. 44
Figure - 18: Jordan Lake Water Quality Pool Profile – Demands Scenarios ............................... 46 Figure - 19: Jordan Lake Water Quality Pool Profile – 100 MGD Water Supply Demand ............ 47
Figure - 20: Jordan Lake Water Quality Pool Profile – 80% Inflow ............................................... 48 Figure - 21: Jordan Lake Boating Impacts ................................................................................... 50
Figure - 22: Hydrogeologic Cross Sections in CFRB (vertically exaggerated) ............................ 54 Figure - 23: Typical Water Budgets for the (a)Coastal Plain and (b)Piedmont Portions of CFRB 55
Figure - 24 Upper CFRB with and without Heath (1994) Recharge Rates ................................... 62 Figure - 25: Instream Flow Study Sites in the Cape Fear River Basin, NC................................... 67
Figure - 26: Stream Condition Middle Deep River, Dec-Feb ......................................................... 72 Figure - 27: Stream Condition Middle Deep River, March-May .................................................... 73
Figure - 28: Stream Condition Deep River, Jun-Nov ..................................................................... 74 Figure - 29: Map of Five SERCC Weather Stations ...................................................................... 76
Figure - 30: Average Annual Precipitation ..................................................................................... 77 Figure - 31: Average Monthly Rainfall ........................................................................................... 77
Figure - 32: Average Maximum Temperature ............................................................................... 78 Figure - 33: Average Minimum Temperature ................................................................................ 79
Figure - 34: USGS Streamflow Gage Locations in Cape Fear River ............................................ 88
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Executive Summary

“The river basin is widely acknowledged to be the most appropriate unit area for
water resource planning and development because it is a natural, specifically limited area that acts as a unique hydrologic system.”
- by Margaret S. Peterson, Hydraulic Engineer, U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers, retired.
Overview The Cape Fear River Basin Water Supply Plan is one in a series of evaluations that
are planned to extend the work first presented in the North Carolina Water Supply
Plan. As North Carolina’s population continues to grow it is important to regularly
evaluate water supply conditions. The river basin perspective helps identify the
combined impacts of individual communities’ projected needs. This approach reveals potential problem areas where it may be difficult to meet projected water
demands while maintaining the environmental quality that makes North Carolina a
great place to live. The Division of Water Resources (DWR) released the North
Carolina Water Supply Plan in 2001 to summarize the best available water use data
for all the major river basins in the state. Since that time the Division has had the opportunity to explore ways to describe water availability. The Division has revised
its approach to water supply planning to better characterize the relationship between
water availability and the projected withdrawals needed to satisfy the demands of
water users through 2050.
North Carolina has several existing programs that provide valuable information to
support this water supply planning effort. Persons that withdraw large quantities of
water from the waters of the State must register their withdrawal with the
Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR). Units of local
government that provide water to the public and other large community water systems must prepare and periodically update a Local Water Supply Plan.
Registrations and local plans must be updated every five years and all parties
subject to either of these requirements must annually report their water usage to the
Department.
In addition to these two statewide programs, there are stricter registration and
reporting requirements in the fifteen counties of the Central Coastal Plain Capacity
Use Area. Permitted withdrawers are required to report their daily water withdrawals
to the DWR. Persons that are not required to get a withdrawal permit that use
10,000 gallons per day or more of ground water or surface water are required to register their withdrawal and annually report usage to the DWR.

Combining the data submitted under all of these programs gives the Division a
robust database of water withdrawal and use data that makes it possible to do basin
wide evaluations such as this one. The Division has also composited data from Central Coastal Plain Capacity Use Area 2007, Local Water Supply Plan 2002, and
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Water Withdrawal and Transfer Registration 2004 that contains reported daily water
withdrawals, by county. From here it is possible to access water use data by source and by type. The map below, with its legend and data source can be accessed at the Division website.

Map 1: Water Use Data by Source and Type

Geographic Scope
The six hydrologic units that make up the Cape Fear River Basin encompassing
almost 9000 square miles form the largest river basin located entirely within North
Carolina. As stated by the Federal Standard for Delineation of Hydrologic Unit
Boundaries,
"A hydrologic unit is a drainage area delineated to nest in a multi-level,
hierarchical drainage system. Its boundaries are defined by
hydrographic and topographic criteria that delineate an area of land
upstream from a specific point on a river, stream or similar surface
waters. A hydrologic unit can accept surface water directly from upstream drainage areas, and indirectly from associated surface areas
such as remnant, non-contributing, and diversions to form a drainage
area with single or multiple outlet points. Hydrologic units are only
synonymous with classic watersheds when their boundaries include all
the source area contributing surface water to a single defined outlet point."
The headwaters of the basin begin in the southern parts of Rockingham and Caswell
counties and the basin contains more than 1600 miles of rivers and streams. The
Cape Fear River flows into the Atlantic Ocean south of Wilmington. The basin
contains all or part of twenty-six counties that include the hilly terrain of the Piedmont
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as well as the relatively flat Coastal Plain. Table - 1 and Figure - 1 show the basin
boundaries and hydrologic subunits used in this analysis. This basin delineation is based on recent revisions to the hydrologic unit definitions and is slightly different from that used in prior basin evaluations of water quantity and quality. It does not
include the drainage area of the New River in Onslow County or the coastal areas of
New Hanover, Pender and Onslow counties that drain directly to the Intercoastal
Waterway or the Atlantic Ocean. The Haw River and Deep River drainage areas with the hilly terrain are
characteristic of the Piedmont physiographic region. Twelve of the fourteen water
supply reservoirs noted in Table - 2 are in these hydrologic subunits and contain the
majority of public water supply storage in the basin, most notably B. Everett Jordan Lake, which is the largest reservoir in the basin.
B. Everett Jordan Dam creates a reservoir capable of holding four million acre-feet
of water. The normal operating water level is 216 feet above mean sea level (MSL).
Above this elevation there is twenty-four vertical feet of controlled flood storage. Below this elevation, there is storage dedicated to public water supply, downstream flow augmentation, and space set aside for sediment accumulation.

During serious droughts the minimum releases from the dam that protect
downstream water quality and aquatic habitat are reduced to preserve the available flow augmentation storage in the reservoir. The water supply storage in the reservoir is allocated by the Environmental Management Commission (EMC). Water supply
allocations are assigned as a percent of storage contained in the water supply pool,
which is estimated to be able to supply 100 million gallons per day during extreme
drought conditions. Sixty percent of the water supply storage is allocated to local governments in the region with about 18% of storage currently being used.
The underlying geology in this portion of the basin is composed of a relatively
shallow layer of unconsolidated material overlaying unweathered, fractured bedrock.
Wells drilled in this area yield variable quantities of water that typically are only sufficient to provide a dependable supply for individual households and very small community water systems.

The Haw River and the Deep River converge to form the Cape Fear River which
flows into the Little River – Cape Fear River hydrologic unit. This area contains the transition from piedmont to coastal plain geology. Water releases from B. Everett Jordan Dam, combined with impoundments in the river, control river flow and water
levels downstream to the southern end of Bladen County. Buckhorn Dam, south of
State Route 42 near Corinth, creates the first backwater moving downstream of B.
Everett Jordan Dam. In the Cape Fear River hydrologic unit south of Fayetteville there are three sets of locks and dams that are operated by the US Army Corps of Engineers to support navigation on the river between Fayetteville and the Port of
Wilmington. Lock & Dam #1, the most downstream dam, is the downstream limit of
the computer model used to analyze the effects of future surface water withdrawals
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from the basin. Tidal influences downstream of Lock & Dam #1 make it very difficult
to model the effects of upstream withdrawals on this section of the river. East of the fall line the Coastal Plain’s geology is a very complex pattern of sediment
layers deposited on the underlying basement rock during cyclic fluctuations of sea
level over millions of years. Moving west to east from the fall line to the coast line the
sediment layers slope downward and generally become thicker. This stack of sediments is delineated into water-bearing aquifers by confining units made up of sediments that inhibit the movement of water.

The Black River and Northeast Cape Fear River hydrologic units drain 3,300 square
miles of the Coastal Plain. The flows from these drainage systems merge with the main stem of the Cape Fear River below Lock & Dam #1 and above Wilmington. Ground water is the primary source of drinking water for communities in this region.
The structure of the aquifer system buffers these deeper, high quality water sources
from the effects of drought. These aquifers have historically provided a reliable
source of water for residents in this area. The current and future water supply demands evaluated for this report were based
on data available to the Division of Water Resources in October 2007. Local Water
Supply Plans and water withdrawal registration data submitted to the Division, as
well as discussions with major water users, were the primary sources of these data. At the time future demand scenarios were being assembled, local plans for 110 water systems in the basin were reviewed. Twenty-three systems withdraw surface
water to provide drinking water to their customers and fifty-five other public water
systems. The remainder of the public water systems in the basin depends on ground
water to meet their public water supply needs. There are four major electric generating facilities in the Cape Fear Basin. They are
all owned and operated by Progress Energy Carolinas. The Cape Fear Plant, a 317
megawatt (MW) coal fired facility is located at the confluence of the Deep and Haw
Rivers. The Cape Fear Plant uses water from the Cape Fear River for cooling water and returns used water to the river downstream at Buckhorn Dam. The Harris Nuclear Plant is a 900 MW facility located east of the Cape Fear Plant in
southwestern Wake County. Harris Lake, formed by impounding Buckhorn Creek,
provides cooling water for this facility. Buckhorn Creek flows into the Cape Fear
River just below Buckhorn Dam in Chatham County. The 398 MW Sutton Plant is a coal fired facility located along the Cape Fear River below Lock & Dam #1 near Wilmington. At the mouth of the river, the Brunswick Nuclear Plant is an 1875 MW
facility that uses saline water for cooling. These four facilities produce a total of 3490
MW of electricity for communities throughout eastern and central North Carolina.
River Basin Modeling The analysis presented in this report is based on combining water use data
submitted by water users in the basin and compiled by the DWR staff and
consultants with a computer based hydrologic model designed to simulate the
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effects of water withdrawals on surface water availability. The results of the modeling
give a hypothetical representation of changes in water quantity that is limited by data availability and the accuracy of assumptions that have to be made about future conditions. Changes in data availability and quality or changes in the assumptions
used will produce different results.

An initial version of a Cape Fear River Basin Model was developed for analyzing the potential impacts of requested increases in water supply allocations from B. Everett Jordan Lake that were approved in 2002. In 2007 the data compiled for the initial
model was transferred to an easier to use program platform and the model was
updated to extend streamflow data through 2005. The model used for this analysis,
Cape Fear River Basin Hydrologic Model uses OASIS with OCL ™, developed by HydroLogics, Inc. OASIS is a generalized simulation program designed to characterize water resource systems. OCL, Operations Control Language, is a
proprietary program that facilitates the customization of OASIS for specific
applications. The Cape Fear River Basin Hydrologic Model was developed in
consultation with the major water withdrawers in the basin along with representatives of State and federal resource management agencies.
The Cape Fear River Basin Hydrologic Model performs a series of calculations that
balance inflows and outflows, given the operating constraints and management
goals established at user-defined points of interest in the basin upstream of Lock & Dam #1 in Bladen County. Points of interest include reservoirs, surface water withdrawals, stream gages, wastewater discharges, and inflows from tributary
streams. Each of these points of interest in the model is referred to as a model
“node”. The nodes are arranged systematically to mimic the movement of water
through the basin. The equation used at each node includes any operational constraints and management protocols that affect decision making at that location and the result of the calculation become an input to the next downstream node.

The Cape Fear River Basin Hydrologic Model is based on seventy-six years of
streamflow data, capturing the range of flows that have occurred in the basin from 1930 through 2005. The model produces one solution for each of the 27,700 days in the flow data using the daily average for each characteristic considered. Operating
protocols, water withdrawals and wastewater discharge as of 2003 were used to
characterize current conditions. Estimated demands for 2030 and 2050 were also
modeled and compared to current conditions to identify areas where it may be difficult to meet future water demands. Table 6 in the report summarizes the withdrawals and return flows modeled for the surface water withdrawers in the basin.
Modeling results indicate that, based on the assumptions used, the water demands
at thirty-one of the forty-two water supply demand nodes could be met everyday
over the range of flows that occurred in the basin between 1930 and 2005. Modeling anomalies create the shortages at six of the eleven nodes (see Table - 7), where the model indicates limitations meeting projected demands. These situations are
associated with water systems that have multiple sources of water. The model will
be updated to more accurately capture how those sources are managed during
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drought periods. The model indicates water withdrawal demands that are not
completely satisfied may face limited-duration shortages. These shortages could be addressed by implementation of demand management and water conservation measures or development of supplemental sources of water.

Reservoir Water Levels and Flow Changes
Variable flows in rivers and streams means the amount of water available at a particular location also varies. Withdrawals will be restricted when flows are low. Reservoirs serve to store captured water for its eventual use at other times in the
future. Once constructed, a reservoir has a fixed volume of water available for
withdrawers. If withdrawals exceed inflows, a situation that is likely to occur during
droughts, the water level in a reservoir will decline. How much the water level declines depends on how much water is being removed, including downstream releases, withdrawals and evaporative losses. Therefore as withdrawal demands
increase, water levels are likely to be lower and will be exacerbated during drought
conditions.
As expected, the increases in withdrawals predicted in the 2030 and 2050 scenarios produce changes in the patterns of water levels in the reservoirs modeled. Of
particular interest are the changes in water storage and elevations shown for B.
Everett Jordan Lake. Modeling indicates that increased withdrawals will mean the
water levels will be drawn down lower and for longer periods of time than under the 2003 scenario. Normal operating water level for the reservoir is 216 feet MSL. The 2003 demand scenario indicates that water levels would be below 214 feet about 10
percent of the time. Under the 2030 and 2050 demand scenarios water levels are
predicted to be below this level about 16 percent and 18 percent of the time,
respectively. Currently, the model does not contain provisions to maintain flows sufficient to
protect the ecological integrity of the riverine ecosystems present in the area
modeled. If the model indicates that water is available to satisfy an off-stream
demand, then the model will allow the withdrawal and deduct that volume of water from the river, regardless of the amount remaining in the waterway. To begin examining how best to integrate ecologic integrity into the model’s management
goals, several locations in the basin were selected to compare flow patterns under
the estimated unimpaired conditions; the base case scenario; and the 2030 and
2050 demand scenarios. This approach characterizes the changes in flow regimes by determining how
frequently daily flows fall within different brackets over the range of flows
represented in the period of record, on a seasonal basis. The percentages within
each bracket can then be compared for the unimpaired and three different withdrawal scenarios. For example, modeling indicates that the amount of time when flows in one section of the Deep River would be in the bracket from 10% to 20% of
average annual flow increases from the current 27% to 31% under the 2050 demand
scenario (during the June through November time frame) . There is not enough
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information available at this time to determine the possible impacts of the predicted
flow changes on aquatic habitat for species in the vicinity of these selected locations. More information is needed regarding the response of aquatic habitat and organisms
to changes in water availability, both in timing and quantity, throughout the river
system. The approach used in this analysis is one way to show the range of
changes that could be experienced in the future and provides a starting point for discussions about potential impacts.
There are plans to investigate a flow modification threshold using existing instream
habitat studies and hypothetical flow regimes generated by river basin hydrologic
models. Developing such a threshold would provide a screening approach that could be included in river basin models to make sure adequate flows for ecological integrity are maintained. It should be noted that such a screening approach would
be a broad-brush planning tool. It would not necessarily exempt proposed new or
expanded large withdrawals from having to conduct site-specific evaluations of
impacts on water availability and aquatic habitats. Surface Water Transfers
Large transfers of surface water between legislatively defined river basins in North
Carolina have been regulated for decades. The roots of the current regulatory
regime date back to 1991 when legislation was passed establishing grandfathered transfer capacities and requiring new transfers of two million gallons per day or more to receive approval from the Environmental Management Commission (EMC) before
commencing. Recent changes to the controlling legislation established stricter
decision making and notification requirements.
The analysis for this plan considered water supply demands for 114 water systems that depend on water from the Cape Fear River Basin to meet customer demands.
Most of these systems were established many decades ago to provide fire protection
and drinking water to expanding communities. The current configuration of the
drinking water distribution and wastewater treatment systems are the result of a series of additions to the systems to meet growing demands. When regulatory basin boundaries were defined by the General Assembly the boundary lines divided many
water system service areas.

In the Cape Fear River Basin, seventy-eight water systems depend on surface water from the basin to meet customer demands. Twenty-three of those systems have surface water withdrawals and they provide water to the other fifty-five other water
systems. Of the seventy-eight water systems that depend on surface water, twenty-
nine systems provide water to customers in basins other than the basin that is the
source of their water. Eleven of the seventy-eight water systems discharge their treated wastewater to a basin other than the one that is the source of the water.
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Most of these systems that transfer surface water have not exceeded their
grandfathered capacity 1or they have not approached the two million gallon per day threshold established by the legislation. Two groups of water systems have received permission from the EMC to transfer large quantities of surface water.

In 1991, under prior legislation, the Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority
received permission to transfer water in conjunction with approvals necessary for the construction of Randleman Reservoir on the Deep River. They are allowed to transfer up to 30.5 million gallons per day from the Deep River Basin to the Haw
River Basin and the Yadkin River Basin.

In 2001, the Towns of Cary, Apex and Morrisville along with Wake County, as a group, received permission to transfer, with conditions, up to 24 million gallons per day from the Haw River Basin to the Neuse River Basin. These systems have
allocations of water supply storage in B. Everett Jordan Reservoir and get their
drinking water from a water treatment plant owned and operated by the Towns of
Cary and Apex. One of the conditions included by the EMC requires returning some of their treated wastewater to the Cape Fear River Basin. Work is ongoing to site a new treatment facility and associated discharge to meet this requirement.

As communities in the basin continue to grow more water systems will face the need
to get permission from the EMC to transfer water between basins or find alternative ways to meet their system needs. The Brunswick County water system and the systems that depend on it for their potable water currently face this dilemma. The
County is proposing to increase an existing transfer from the Cape Fear River to the
Shallotte River Basin. The County will hold a series of public scoping meetings in
April 2009 in preparation for development of a State Environmental Policy Document to evaluate the impacts and benefits of the proposed increase. The EMC is the decision-making authority for transfers between basins.

1 1 “Grandfathered capacity” is the amount of water that a facility can transfer without needs to get an interbasin transfer certificate. This applies to facilities existing or under construction on July 1, 1993.
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1 Existing Water Resources and Water Balances
1.1 Basin Summary
(a) Basin Description
The Cape Fear River basin is the largest river basin in North Carolina. It drains
9,149 square miles from the Piedmont to its mouth at Cape Fear, south of
Wilmington, and runs through 6,386 freshwater stream miles including tributaries2.

The Cape Fear River Basin is composed of six hydrologic sub-units. The 8-digit
hydrologic unit codes [HU] assigned by the United States Geological Survey
(USGS) for these basin subunits along the major tributaries are listed in Table - 1. The boundaries of each HU are shown in Figure - 1. The basin starts at the
headwaters of the Haw and Deep Rivers which together drain about 3120 square
miles of the Piedmont physiographic province. These two major tributaries merge
to form the Cape Fear River below B. Everett Jordan Dam. The Cape Fear flows
southeasterly through the transition from Piedmont to Coastal Plain terrain on its way to the Atlantic Ocean, south of Wilmington. The Black River and Northeast
Cape Fear River, which together drain about 3,310 square miles of the Coastal
Plain, also flow southeasterly and merge with the Cape Fear upstream of
Wilmington.

Table - 1: Cape Fear River Basin HUs
8 Digit HU Watersheds Tributaries
03030002 Haw River
Upper Haw River, Reedy Fork, Stony Creek, Middle
Haw River, Big and Little Alamance River, Lower Haw River, New Hope Creek, B. Everett Jordan Reservoir,
Morgan Creek, University Lake
03030003 Deep River
Deep River, Muddy Creek, Richland Creek, Cabin
Creek, McLendon's Creek, Rocky River
03030004 Little River Cape Fear River Cape Fear River, Little River, Rockfish Creek
03030005 Lower Cape Fear River Cape Fear River, Town Creek, Brunswick River
03030006 Black River
South River, Great Coharie Creek, Six Runs Creek,
Black Creek
03030007 Northeast Cape Fear River Northeast Cape Fear River, Goshen Swamp, Rockfish Creek
2 Cape Fear Quick Facts, http://www.ncwater.org/basins/Cape_Fear/
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Figure - 1: Map of Cape Fear River Basin HUs

(b) Major Flow Modification
The rolling hills in the Piedmont areas possess suitable locations for the creation
of reservoirs by surface water impoundments. The flat terrain characteristic of the
Coastal Plain is not suitable for surface water impoundments, however, productive aquifers have been formed by the accumulation of sediment layers.

Several reservoirs have been created in the upper sub basins for water supply,
flood control and recreational purposes. The Haw River is impounded by the B. Everett Jordan Dam, just upstream of its confluence with the Deep River, forming
the largest multi purpose reservoir within the river basin. Water supply storage in
Jordan Lake is controlled by the State of North Carolina and is allocated by the
EMC. Table - 2 shows the list of the lakes/reservoirs located in the upper basin.
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Table - 2: Cape Fear Water Supply Reservoirs
Water Supply Reservoirs Max Storage, acre-ft River Sub Basin County
Riedsville Dam 11,416 Troublesome Creek Haw River Rockingham
Old Stony Creek Reservoir 3,700 Stony Creek Haw River Alamance
Brandt Res 18,391 Reedy Fork Creek Haw River Guilford
Lake Jeanette & Townsend 39,504 Richland & Reedy Fork Creek Haw River Guilford
High Point Reservoir 3,683 Deep River Deep River Guilford
Randleman Reservoir 62,000 Deep River Deep River Randolph
Ramseur Reservour 1,221 Deep River Deep River Randolph
Graham Mebane Reservoir 15,645 Back Creek Haw River Alamance
Mackintosh Reservoir 34,700 Great Alamance Creek Haw River Alamance
Cane Creek Reservoir 10,813 Haw River Haw River Alamance
Univ Lake 1,320 Morgan Creek Haw River Orange
Jordan Lake 4,000,000 Haw River Haw River Chatham
Harris Lake 270,000 Buckhorn Creek Little River Cape Fear Wake-Chatham
Glenville Reservoir 231 Little River Cape Fear Cumberland
One acre-foot equals approximately 325,900 gallons.
Besides these water supply reservoirs there are numerous small impoundments
for hydroelectric generation which are under the jurisdiction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. A complete list of these dams with their
operation status and descriptions is available in the Water Resources section of
the 2005 Cape Fear Water Quality Basin Plan3.

The US Army Corps of Engineers has built and continues to maintain three locks and dams that ensure a minimum channel depth of 8 feet for navigation purposes
for 110 miles on the Cape Fear River from Fayetteville to Wilmington. The
locations of these locks and dams are shown in Table 3. The furthest
downstream of these facilities, Lock & Dam #1 is the downstream boundary of
the computer model used for the analysis presented in this plan.
Table - 3: Cape Fear Lock and Dam
Lock and
Dam No Other Name Location River Distance
1 Lock and Dam # 1 CF River in Bladen County 39 miles upstream of Wilmington.
2 Lock and Dam # 2 Elizabethtown 2 miles SE of Elizabethtown
3 William O. Huske Dam Fayetteville 20 miles S of Fayetteville
3 [http://h2o.enr.state.nc.us/basinwide/documents/chapter32waterresources_001.pdf].

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1.2 Hydrology
(a) Surface Water
(i) Surface water Availability and Reliability
The Cape Fear stream flows are monitored at 105 United States Geological
Survey (USGS) gage stations. Among these, 6 are on unregulated reaches of the river, where impoundments or any other manmade disturbances do not impact the natural flows. These 6 gage stations provide valuable data about streamflows
for several significant drainage areas for a considerable continuous time period.
Basic gage information for these gages are listed in Table - 4 and locations are
displayed on a map in Figure - 2. Table - 4: List of USGS Unregulated Streamflow Gage Stations
No. USGS Stations Station Names HU County Dr. Area, sq-mile Approx. POR Years
1 02093800 REEDY FORK NEAR OAK RIDGE, NC 3030002 Guilford 20.6 53
2

02096500 HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER, NC 3030002 Alamance 606 80
3 02099500 DEEP RIVER NEAR RANDLEMAN, NC 3030003 Randolph 125 76
4 02100500 DEEP RIVER AT RAMSEUR, NC 3030003 Randolph 349 85
5 02106500 BLACK RIVER NEAR TOMAHAWK, NC 3030006 Sampson 676 57
6 02108000 NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR CHINQUAPIN, NC 3030007 Duplin 599 68
Figure - 2: Map of 6 USGS Unregulated Streamflow Gage Stations

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Average daily stream flow values have been analyzed for these 6 stations for each calendar year of the periods of record available for each station. The monthly average of mean, maximum and minimum daily stream flow values are
shown in Figure - 3, Figure - 4 and Figure - 5, respectively. Mean values are
provided in Figure - 3 with the higher mean flows occurring in the winter and
early spring and lower mean flows occurring during the summer months. This variation in seasonal flows illustrates just one of the complications that must be addressed by water systems that choose to use surface water as their source of
drinking water. The impacts of flow variation on water systems become even
clearer when the minimum flow values shown in Figure - 6 are also taken into
account. These minimum flows have occurred during the periods of record for these gages and flows of these levels can be expected to occur in the future.
Figure - 3: Monthly Mean Flow in Cubic Feet per Second
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Fl
o
w
,

C
F
S
Haw River
Reedy Creek Fork
Deep R @ Randleman
Deep R@ Ramseur
Black River
NE Cape Fear

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Figure - 4: Monthly Maximum Stream Flow in Cubic Feet per Second
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Fl
o
w
,

C
F
S
Haw River
Reedy Creek Fork
Deep R @ Randleman
Deep R@ Ramseur
Black River
NE Cape Fear
Figure - 5: Monthly Minimum Stream Flow in Cubic Feet per Second
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Fl
o
w
,

C
F
S
Haw River
Reedy Creek Fork
Deep R @ Randleman
Deep R@ Ramseur
Black River
NE Cape Fear

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Stream flows are dependant upon the rainfall over the corresponding drainage
areas. Thus the drainage area sizes as well as other factors such as geology, topography, vegetation and temperature, have a great influence over the amount of runoff that contributes to streamflows. The yield of a watershed is calculated
as the measured streamflow from a unit area. The plots in Figure - 6, Figure - 7
and Figure - 8 show the mean, maximum and minimum unit stream flow
measured as cubic feet per second per square mile [CFS/Sq-Mile] ] of drainage area for each of the 6 unregulated gages. These unit flow plots are useful for decision making in water resources management. Even though the mean flows
shown in Figure - 4 vary substantially between gage sites, the mean unit flows
across the basin, as shown in Figure - 6, do not vary to the same degree. Figure
- 7 indicates that maximum unit flows vary seasonally as well as by location.
Figure - 6: Unit Mean Flow Statistics in Cubic Feet per Second / Square Mile of Drainage Area
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Fl
o
w
,

C
F
S
/
S
q
-
M
i
l
e
Haw River
Reedy Creek Fork
Deep R @ Randleman
Deep R@ Ramseur
Black River
NE Cape Fear

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Figure - 7: Unit Maximum Flow Statistics
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Fl
o
w
,

C
F
S
/
S
q
-
M
i
l
e
Haw River
Reedy Creek Fork
Deep R @ Randleman
Deep R@ Ramseur
Black River
NE Cape Fear

Figure - 8: Unit Minimum Flow Statistics
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Fl
o
w
,

C
F
S
/
S
q
-
M
i
l
e
Haw River
Reedy Creek Fork
Deep R @ Randleman
Deep R@ Ramseur
Black River
NE Cape Fear

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To supply water to a public water system there must be a balancing of the
system’s desired withdrawals and the quantity of water that is reliably available from a water source. For run of the river water sources the availability of water can best be presented by using a duration plot, which shows the percent of time
that flow at a gage station will be above a specific value. The stream flow
duration plots in log scale and regular scale for the six stations discussed above
are shown in Figure - 9 and Figure - 10. These plots indicate that fifty percent of the time the flow varies from 14 cfs to 510 cfs from these drainage areas. Ninety percent of the time flow varies from 6.4 cfs to 103 cfs. Among all these stations,
the Haw River station demonstrates more reliability compared to the other
stations in the upper basin and 99% of the time the streamflow is at or above
41cfs.
The duration plot for the Deep River at Randleman indicates that over the period
of record used for this analysis the flow was 20 cfs or more 85 percent of the
time. Conversely, it was less than that for 15 percent of the time. In fact it was
less than 13 cfs for 5 percent of the time and less than 9 cfs for 2 percent of the time. This approach provides some parameters for the expected occurrence of various levels of flow. For example, a community hoping to reliably withdraw 15
cfs or about 9.7 million gallons per day would face a significant amount of time
where flow at this location would not be sufficient to meet their demand, even
without a requirement to maintain a minimum flow below their withdrawal point.
Figure - 9: Flow Duration Plots for Period of Record – Log Scale
0
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% Duration Exceedance
Av
g

D
a
i
l
y

F
l
o
w
,

C
F
S
Reedy Fork
Haw River
Deep RiveratRandleman
Deep Riverat Ramseur
Black River
NE CapeFear

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Figure - 10: Flow Duration Plots for Period of Record
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% Duration Exceedance
Av
g

D
a
i
l
y

F
l
o
w
,

C
F
S
Reedy Fork
Haw River
Deep RiveratRandleman
Deep Riverat Ramseur
Black River
NE CapeFear

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(ii) Basin Model Description and Assumptions

The Cape Fear River Basin Hydrologic Model on the Surface Water Assessment and 2008 Analysis
The model used for this analysis, Cape Fear River Basin Hydrologic Model uses
OASIS (Operational Analysis and Simulation of Integrated Systems), with OCL ™, developed by HydroLogics, Inc. OASIS is a generalized simulation program designed to characterize water resource systems. OCL, Operations Control Language, is a proprietary program that facilitates the customization of OASIS for
specific applications. The Cape Fear River Basin Hydrologic Model was
developed in consultation with the major water withdrawers in the basin along
with representatives of State and Federal resource management agencies. More information on the model and its development can be found on the Division’s website.

OASIS balances water coming in with water going out at all nodes, subject to the
goals and constraints established for each node. The model also assigns weights to each type of water use. This allows the model to make allocation decisions between competing uses. At the reservoir nodes, water is stored and
released subject to user-defined operating rules. The model operates on a daily
time step making one set of calculations for each day and uses daily average
values for each calculation. In the model, the 2003 demands scenario is used as the base case against
which the scenarios of projected future demands and return flows are compared.
Using the model to compare future demand conditions with the base case
conditions may help to identify the possible impacts on reservoir levels and stream flows at points of interest around the basin due to proposed increases in water supply demands. This Cape Fear Analysis is the most comprehensive
analysis that has been done so far using this model.

The DWR began this update to the Cape Fear River Basin Water Supply Plan in October 2007 by meeting with water systems in the basin and requesting that water systems provide the Division with any revised projections of future water
supply demands. Except for the twenty water users that submitted additional data
in response to this request, the demands modeled were derived from the 2002
Local Water Supply Plans submitted by the water systems. Also at the October 2007 meeting, attendees heard presentations describing several new and expanded withdrawals that are being considered or under development and that
have the potential to influence future conditions of the Cape Fear River.

Progress Energy Carolinas is evaluating the possibility of increasing the generating capacity at its Harris Nuclear facility in southwestern Wake County. Also, the Lower Cape Fear Water and Sewer Authority will be developing a
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surface water intake on the Cape Fear River near Tarheel to supply water to a
Smithfield Foods facility and surrounding communities. Additional information supplied by water withdrawers was integrated into the
model and an initial round of modeling was conducted in early 2008. In May 2008
a draft modeling report was released by DWR. While conducting its own review
of the modeling results, DWR received comments and suggestions from several other stakeholders. Adjustments were made to the model to more realistically characterize the existing management protocols and the future water demand
scenarios were modeled again. In response to comments submitted to DWR, an
additional scenario was designed to show the impacts if all of the 100 million
gallons per day of water supply storage in B. Everett Jordan Reservoir were withdrawn.
The analysis presented in this document is based on the results of the revised
modeling. A detailed report describing the results of the revised modeling was
released in October 2008. A copy of the report can be found at the Water Resources homepage.

Scope of the Model
The geographic scope of the model includes the drainage areas of the Deep River, the Haw River and the Cape Fear River above Lock and Dam #1 in Bladen
County. The model evaluates the quantity of surface water available at various
points of interest within this geographic boundary. The schematic map in Figure –
11 shows the geographic coverage of the model and provides some ideas regarding the relative location of the various model nodes.
Each of the polygons in the schematic represents a node where the model
performs a calculation to sum the effects of inflows and outflows of water. Figure
- 12 provides a more detailed image of the model schematic in the vicinity of B. Everett Jordan Dam and the confluence of the Deep and Haw Rivers.

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Figure - 11: Cape Fear Hydrologic Model Schematic

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Figure - 12: Cape Fear Hydrologic Model Detailed Schematic

Scenarios Modeled

For this round of modeling six different scenarios were analyzed: a simulation of
conditions without any withdrawals discharges or storage impoundments, which is called the Unregulated Flow Scenario; a characterization of current conditions,
which is called the 2003 Demands Base Case; and four scenarios of future
conditions
i. Unregulated Flow Scenario This scenario modeled stream flows which are the estimated natural flows in the
basin, unaffected by impoundments, water withdrawals, or wastewater
discharges. To model this scenario, all demands and discharges were set to
zero. All reservoirs were assumed to have zero usable storage, meaning they
are modeled to remain full and release exactly the amount of water that flowed into them.

ii. 2003 Demands Base Case
This scenario reflects current conditions. Water demands and return flows were
estimated using local water supply plan data and additional information received from water systems and data from other registered water users. The results of
the other scenarios were compared to this base case to identify possible
changes in impacts due to projected changes in withdrawals and return flows.
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iii. 2030 Demands This scenario modeled the water demands that are projected for the year 2030 using local water supply plan data and any updated projections received from
water systems. Jordan Lake water supply withdrawals may, in some cases, be
greater than the current approved water supply allocations. These withdrawals
were assumed to follow the future water use projections provided by the allocation holders.
iv. 2050 Demands
The 2050 demand scenario is similar to 2030 demand scenario, except that the
modeled water demands are those needed to meet water demands projected for 2050 that are contained in the local water supply plans or additional information supplied by water withdrawers.

v. 2050 Demands with Jordan Lake Water Supply Demands set to
100 MGD This scenario is the same as the 2050 demands scenario except that the total water supply demand from Jordan Lake is set to 100 mgd, which is the estimated
maximum safe yield of the water supply pool. Under the previous 2050 demands
scenario, a total of 73.5 mgd is modeled as being withdrawn from Jordan Lake
for water supply. Under this new scenario, an additional water supply demand node was added to Jordan Lake, and the annual withdrawal at this node was set at 26.5 mgd, bringing the total water supply withdrawal from Jordan Lake to 100
mgd. Note that the additional 26.5 mgd of water withdrawn was assumed to be a
100% consumptive use. None of this additional withdrawal is being returned to
the basin. This is a conservative assumption chosen in order to assess the maximum impacts to the Jordan Lake level from the additional withdrawal.
vi. 2050 Demands with 80% of Historic Natural Inflows (Climate
Change Scenario)
This scenario is the same as the 2050 demands scenario except that all of the natural inflows to the system have all been multiplied by 0.8. The purpose of this scenario is to make an attempt to assess the potential impacts of a long period of
increased ambient average temperatures (Climate Change), while meeting the
same 2050 demands scenario with 80% of water available.

Model Assumptions
The Cape Fear River Basin Hydrologic Model balances water coming in with
water going out at all nodes, subject to goals and constraints designed to
characterize current management protocols at each node. Each type of water
use is given a user-defined priority at each node which gives the model the ability to make allocation decisions between competing uses. At the reservoir nodes
water is stored and released subject to user-defined operating rules. The model
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operates on a daily time step making one set of calculations for each of the
27,700 days in the historic flow dataset using daily average values for each of the characteristics considered.
Inputs
Inputs to the model calculations include the following:
1. Estimated Daily Natural Inflows: The model uses a set of daily natural inflows that estimate the water entering the system due to runoff. These inflow
data were developed using seventy-six years of flow records and are adjusted for
upstream withdrawals, discharges, and reservoir operations. These inflows are
modeled as entering the systems at discrete points scattered throughout the watershed. In the schematic, they are shown as purple arrows.

2. Daily Withdrawals: Water is removed from the system at
discrete points, represented in the model as withdrawal nodes. These nodes show up as blue boxes on the schematic. These withdrawals
can be for water supply systems, industrial water users, or agricultural water
users. Public water supply withdrawals are based on local water supply plan
data which in some cases were updated to reflect improvements in projections of
future demands. Self-supplied industrial water withdrawals were derived from data submitted under the Division’s water withdrawal registration program. It is
assumed to remain the same in 2030 and 2050 as it is in the base case unless
additional information was available to justify changes in projections. Agricultural
demands are the same as those used in previous versions of the model.
Agricultural uses for livestock and irrigation were estimated with the help of county agricultural extension agents and an agricultural extension irrigation
specialist. Water use estimates were developed for crops, taking into
consideration variations in planting times in the upper, middle and lower regions
of the basin. Livestock water needs are based on animal head counts in each
county and the water use factors used by the USGS in the 1995 Estimated Water Use in North Carolina. Percentages of irrigated crops and livestock in the basin
were developed for each county in consultation with county agricultural extension
agents. There are individual nodes for agricultural water use in each county in
the basin.
3. Daily Wastewater Discharges:
Return flows from wastewater discharges are modeled similar to natural inflows,
as water inputs at discrete nodes. They are represented in the schematic as
brown arrows. Inflows from wastewater discharges come from industrial and municipal wastewater treatment plants and water reclamation facilities. The
inputs used in the base case were used to calculate the percentage of a facility’s
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water withdrawal that is directly returned to the surface waters of the basin as
wastewater return flow. This percentage was then applied to estimated future withdrawals to estimate future wastewater return flows. For example, if a town withdraws 10 mgd on average and returns 6 mgd of treated wastewater, then
60% of the withdrawal is returned directly to the surface waters of the basin. In
the 2030 and 2050 scenarios, the assumed wastewater discharge, for this
specific example, is again 60% of the withdrawal. 4. Reservoir Operating Guidelines and Data: The model balances inflows
and outflows at each node. Inflows equal outflows on all days for all nodes
except reservoir nodes, represented by red triangles in the schematic. In the
case of a reservoir, the change in daily storage is considered in the balance equation. Each reservoir in the model has a set of operating guidelines. Only two reservoirs in the system have minimum release requirements, Jordan Lake
and Randleman Lake. Jordan Lake has a fairly complex set of operating rules,
which are explained in a further section of this document on Jordan Lake.
Randleman Lake is operated to maintain a minimum release that varies according to reservoir level. The minimum release is assumed in the model as follows:

Table - 5: Randleman Lake Releases
Percent Remaining in Storage Minimum Release at Dam
0-30% 10 cfs
30-60% 20 cfs
60-100% 30 cfs

Outputs
The Cape Fear River Basin Hydrologic Model can provide a variety of model run
outputs in a variety of configurations. The primary outputs used for this analysis
include the following:
1. Daily Flows: The model outputs daily flows into a node, out of a
node, or through an arc. An arc connects two nodes, and is represented in
the schematic as a black arrow between two nodes.
2. Daily Reservoir Levels 3. Daily Reservoir Releases
4. Daily Accounting of Jordan Lake Conservation Storage: The model keeps
track of how much water is remaining in the water supply storage pool and the
water quality storage pool. This information is used to determine the release
from the reservoir during droughts. 5. Drought Stage at Jordan Lake: According to the percentage of storage
remaining in water quality storage, the model outputs the daily drought stage.
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Withdrawals and Discharges
Table - 6 summarizes the estimated withdrawals and return flows for the 2003 base case and the 2030 and 2050 demand scenarios for the major water users
modeled for this analysis. All volumes are shown in million gallons per day
(MGD).
Table - 6: Demands and Discharges Assumed in the Modeling (All units are in MGD)
System Node Description Node # Node Type 2003 2030 2050
Angier NC0082597 (AngiersWW) 654
WWTP
Discharge 0.43 0.81 0.90
Archdale Randleman Lake 904 Withdrawal 1.20 1.20
Asheboro NC0026123 (AsheboroWW) 282 WWTP Discharge 5.62 7.57 9.94
Broadway NC0059242 (BroadwayWW) 940
WWTP
Discharge 0.11 0.13
Burlington Lake Mackintosh 341 Withdrawal 10.86 11.73 15.51
NC0083828 (BurlingtonMackintoshWW) 352 WTP Discharge 0.39 0.41 0.54
Stoney Creek Reservoir 71 Withdrawal 7.30 5.97 7.91
NC0023868 (BurlingtonEastWW) 106 WWTP Discharge 0.07 9.87 12.93
NC0023876 (BurlingtonSouthWW) 362 WWTP Discharge 6.40 9.48 12.48
Carthage Nicks Creek 701 Withdrawal 0.26 0.59 0.70
Carolina Trace WS NC0038831 (CarolinaTraceUtilWW) 674 WWTP Discharge 0.25 0.27 0.27
Cary Jordan Lake 471 Withdrawal 14.02 32.09 34.88
Apex NC0081591 (CaryApxWW) 472 WTP Discharge 0.69 0.00 0.00
Western Wake Regional WRF (CaryRegWW) 930 WWTP Discharge 18.40 20.60
Chatham Co North Jordan Lake 473 Withdrawal 1.03 9.63 15.88
NC0035866 (NorthChathamWW) 452 WWTP Discharge 0.01 0.05 0.08
Dunn Cape Fear River 663 Withdrawal 3.49 11.77 17.59
NC0078955 (DunnWW) 682 WTP Discharge 0.51 0.76
NC0043176 (DunnWWTP) 692 WWTP Discharge 3.04 9.99 15.35
Durham Jordan Lake 476 Withdrawal 10.00 10.00
NC0047957 (DurhamReclamationWW) 462
WWTP
Discharge 10.73 11.29 12.90
NC0026051 (DurhamCtyTriangleWW) 454
WWTP
Discharge 4.49 4.02 4.59
Elizabethtown NC006671 (ElizabethtownWW) 960 Discharge 1.04 1.25
Erwin Swift Textiles Reservoir 661 Withdrawal 0.65 0.89 1.06
NC0064521 (ErwinSouthWW) 686
WWTP
Discharge 0.95 0.98 1.17
NC0001406 (BurlingtonIndustriesWW) 684 WWTP Discharge 8.74 0.00 0.00
Fayetteville Cape Fear River 733 Withdrawal 20.00 69.18 83.11
NC0076783 (FayettevillePOHofferWW) 744 WTP Discharge 1.23 4.71 5.73
Little Cross Creek 761 Withdrawal 0.00 0.00 0.00
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System Node Description Node # Node Type 2003 2030 2050
NC0023957 (FayettevilleCrossCreekWW) 742 WWTP Discharge 12.39 31.87 43.24
NC0050105 (FayettevilleRockfishCreekWW) 774 WWTP Discharge 13.04 24.00 24.00
Fort Bragg Little Upper River Dam 721 Withdrawal 6.27 0.00 0.00
Franklinville NC0007820 (FranklinvilleWW) 910 WWTP Discharge 0.04 0.05
Fuquay-Varina NC0028118 (FuquayVarinayWW) 552
WWTP
Discharge 1.01 0.39 1.18
Goldston Gulf SD Deep River 605 Withdrawal 0.13 1.94
Graham Graham-Mebane Lake 321 Withdrawal 3.23 6.05 8.11
Mebane NC0045292 (GrahamMebaneWW) 102 WTP Discharge 0.323 0.60 0.81
NC0021211 (GrahamCtyWW) 108
WWTP
Discharge 1.85 2.46 3.14
NC0021474 (MebaneWW) 104
WWTP
Discharge 1.84 2.63
Greensboro Lake Townsend 141 Withdrawal 19.65 17.53 23.19
NC 0081671 (GreensboroLakeTownsendWW) 142 WTP Discharge 12.76 1.56 2.07
Lake Brandt 121 Withdrawal 11.44 8.77 11.59
NC 0081426 (GreensboroMitchellWW) 174 WTP Discharge 0.26 0.15 0.20
Randleman Lake 901 Withdrawal 20.83 27.54
NC0047384 (GreensboroTZOsborneWW) 182 WWTP Discharge 23.08 26.60 40.34
NC0024325 (GreensboroNBuffaloCrkWW) 176 WWTP Discharge 1.97 16.00 16.00
UNC Greensboro (formerly NC0082082) (UNCGreensboroWW) 172 Discharge 0.03 0.00 0.00
Harnett Co Cape Fear River 551 Withdrawal 7.04 27.47 40.03
NC0021636 (LillingtonWW) 664
WWTP
Discharge 0.43 0.95
NC0030091 (BuiesCreekWW) 656
WWTP
Discharge 0.50 0.50
NC0031470 (HarnettCoWW) 950
WWTP
Discharge 0.40 0.40
High Point City and Oak Hollow Lakes 221 Withdrawal 13.12 10.58 12.30
NC0081256 (HighPointWW) 236 WTP Discharge 0.86 0.66 0.77
Randleman Lake 902 Withdrawal 4.80 5.44
NC0024210 (HighPointEastWW) 232 WWTP Discharge 15.08 19.06 22.82
Holly Springs Jordan Lake Release 924 Withdrawal 0.00 0.00
Cape Fear River 923 Withdrawal 0.00 0.00
NC0063096 (HollySpringsWW) 522 WWTP Discharge 0.92 4.01 4.83
Jamestown Randleman Lake 903 Withdrawal 0.67 0.71
Lee County Cumnock Golden Poultry Deep River 601 Withdrawal 0.65 2.50 2.50
NC0083852 (LeeCtyWW) 616 WTP Discharge 0.16 0.40 0.40
Lower Cape Fear WSA Cape Fear River 825 Withdrawal 17.58 21.31 25.70
Moore Co (Vass) Thagards Lake 711 Withdrawal 0.00 0.00
Morrisville Jordan Lake 477 Withdrawal 1.5 3.96 3.96
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System Node Description Node # Node Type 2003 2030 2050
Orange-Alamance Jordan Lake 921 Withdrawal 0.00 0.00
Orange Co
Orange WASA Cane Creek Reservoir 391 Withdrawal 5.43 4.68 6.90
University Lake 431 Withdrawal 2.84 3.19 4.70
NC0082210 (OWASA_WTP_WW) 442 WTP Discharge 0.36 0.40 0.59
Jordan Lake 922 Withdrawal 5.00 5.00
NC0025241 (OWASA_MasonFarmWW) 444 WWTP Discharge 8.30 9.94 12.82
Pittsboro Haw River 401 Withdrawal 0.65 8.14 8.14
NC0020354 (PittsboroWW) 412
WWTP
Discharge 0.45 4.23 4.23
Progress Energy Shearon Harris 521 Withdrawal 31.41 31.41 31.41
524 Discharge 19.5 19.5 19.5
Progress Energy Cape Fear Plant 487 Withdrawal 194.15 194.15 194.15
512 Discharge 194 194 194
Raeford NC0026514 (RaefordWW) 772
WWTP
Discharge 1.88 3.61 4.10
Ramseur Sandy Creek 301 Withdrawal 0.58 0.92 1.09
NC0026565 (RamseurWW) 572
WWTP
Discharge 0.27 0.34 0.40
Randleman Randleman City Reservoir 261 Withdrawal 0.90 0.16 0.55
Randleman Lake 905 Withdrawal 1.01 1.01
NC0025445 (RandlemanWW) 252
WWTP
Discharge 1.09 1.08 1.45
Randolph Co Randleman Lake 906 Withdrawal 6.00 6.00
Reidsville Lake Reidsville 31 Withdrawal 5.75 5.41 5.76
NC0046345 (Reidsville_WTP_WW) 24 WTP Discharge 0.48 0.46 0.49
NC0024881 (ReidsvilleWW) 42 WWTP Discharge 3.05 3.46 3.63
Robbins Brooks 591 Withdrawal 0.26 0.24 0.27
NC0062855 (RobbinsWW) 582 WWTP Discharge 0.25 0.16 0.19
Sanford Cape Fear River 491 Withdrawal 6.53 21.06 39.73
NC0002861 (SanfordWW) 502 WTP Discharge 0.65 2.09 3.93
NC0024147 (Sanford_WWTP) 612 WWTP Discharge 4.38 12.36 23.67
Siler City Rocky River 631 Withdrawal 2.97 5.83 6.00
NC0058548 (SilerCityWW) 632
WWTP
Discharge 2.96 4.56 5.40
Spring Lake NC0030970 (SpringLakeWW) 722 WWTP Discharge 0.90 1.42 1.85
Star NC0058548 (StarWW) 592
WWTP
Discharge 0.16 0.11 0.12
Wake Co - RTP South Jordan Lake 474 Withdrawal 0.39 2.65 3.82
Wilmington Cape Fear River 823 Withdrawal 14.80 30.70 39.80

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Water Supply Demands vs. Delivery
Note: The results presented in this section are only the three water demands scenarios; the 2003 base case, 2030, and 2050 demands scenarios.

There are 42 modeled water supply demand nodes. In the scenarios, the nodes
were individually examined to determine if the projected available quantity for surface water would be sufficient to meet projected demand at each of those nodes. The withdrawal amounts assumed by the model at each water supply
node are summarized in the previous section titled “Withdrawals and
Discharges”.
For demand nodes on run-of-river sections of streams, the model has a set of weights and goals that determine whether water supply demands can be met.
The model uses these weights to prioritize water uses. Simply stated, the
weights assign points to each type of use such as a water supply demand,
irrigation demand, minimum release from a reservoir, or reservoir storage. The model allocates water by choosing the allocation which maximizes the total weight points. At this time, minimum in-stream flow needs have not been
identified and therefore have not been assigned a weight. Using the model to
analyze in-stream flows at additional nodes may help identify in-stream flow
concerns downstream of water supply withdrawals. In future model runs, in-stream flow targets may be set as needed which may further constrain water supply withdrawals.

For demand nodes from reservoirs, the water supply demand is met if the
reservoir has sufficient water remaining in storage. If the model predicts that a demand from a reservoir is not met, this is an indication that the reservoir has been depleted.

Water deliveries were compared to water supply for each of the three demands
scenarios. The model predicts that for 31 of the 42 water supply nodes, the full demand is met for all days for all three water demand scenarios. However, there are 11 nodes for which the full demand is not met under all three
water demand scenarios.

Table - 7 summarizes the 7 nodes for which the model predicts that the full water supply demand would not be met in one or more scenarios for more than one of the 76 years that were modeled. These 7 nodes represent the most significant
water supply deficits predicted by the model. They are listed in alphabetical
order and divided into systems which have only a single water supply and
systems which have multiple water supplies.
The largest water supply deficit predicted by the model is the direct result of how the model was set up to distribute demand among the sources of water available
to the Orange Water and Sewer Authority (OWASA). OWASA’s University Lake
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shows a deficit in 24 of the 76 years in the 2050 scenario. However, this deficit is
due not to an actual water supply shortage, but rather how the model deals with the OWASA multi-reservoir water system. In the current model, separate water demands are assigned to each water supply as if they were managed
independently. In actuality, these reservoirs are managed as a multi-reservoir
system and withdrawals would be taken from another source before University
Lake was depleted. However, the model is currently not set up to take this into account. It should be noted that OWASA’s Cane Creek Reservoir water supply withdrawals showed no deficits in the 2003 and 2030 scenarios, and only one 2-
day deficit under the estimated 2050 demands. This level of supply shortfall
could likely be addressed by implementing water conservation measures if this
level of demand becomes a reality.
The model shows a deficit for Fort Bragg under the base case scenario in 7 of the 76 years. For decades Fort Bragg has depended on the Little River to meet
its water needs. Recent droughts have highlighted the inadequacy of this
watershed to reliably meet the recent demands and the base is in the process of
switching its source of water. In the future Fort Bragg will get its water from the Cape Fear River through a neighboring water system. This change was included in the model and is the reason that Fort Bragg did not show a water supply deficit
in the 2030 and 2050 scenarios.

Among the water systems with only one water supply, deficits were predicted for Ramseur, Randleman, and Robbins. However, only for Ramseur was a deficit predicted in more than two of the 76 years.

The model predicts significant water supply deficits for the Town of Ramseur in
all three scenarios. The Ramseur reservoir is small as is Ramseur’s projected water supply demand, not expected to exceed 1.1 mgd before the year 2050. Information submitted to DWR since this modeling was completed indicates that
the town plans to increase their available water supply beginning in 2015 by
purchasing water from Asheboro or Randolph County. These options would likely
address the deficits identified in this analysis. The deficits for Greensboro Townsend Lake and High Point are been solved by
future allocation from the Randleman Lake, while Robbins C B Brooks has been
planning to make a connection with Montgomery County for an additional source
of water. The minor deficit for Randleman could likely be resolved through enhanced water conservation measures during times of water shortages.
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Table - 7: Water Supply Demand Deficits Predicted by the OASIS Model

Node
Model Scenario 2003 Demand
(mgd)
Longest Deficit
(Days)
Years Demand Not Met
Out of 76
2030 Demand
(mgd)
Longest Deficit
(Days)
Years Demand Not Met
Out of 76
2050 Demand
(mgd)
Longest Deficit
(Days)
Years Demand Not Met
Out of 76
Water Systems

Systems With a Single Water Sources
301 Ramseur 0.58 34 12 0.9 35 16 1.1 43 20
261 Randleman 0.2 16 2 0.6 15 1
591 Robbins CB Brooks 0.26 33 2 0.24 33 2 0.27 33 2

Systems With Multiple Water Sources
721 Ft. Bragg 6.3 12 7
141 Greensboro Townsend 23.2 36 3
221 High Point - F Ward 13.12 34 5 12.3 16 4
431 OWASA University Lake 2.8 48 7 3.2 7 7 4.7 92 24

# of Days Per Year Demand Not Met = Number of days out of the full 27,394 days of record that the model shows the full demand maybe is not met, divided by 76 (years of record).
Longest Deficit (Days) = The greatest number of consecutive days over the entire 76 year record that the full water supply demand maybe is not met.
Years Demand Not Met = The number of years out of a total of 76 that the full water supply demand maybe is not met.
Systems in Red are those for which a deficit is predicted in any scenario seven or more years out of the 76 year record.

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Climate Change Scenario
The increased attention in recent years concerning the potential impacts of climate variability and the possibility of experiencing climate conditions outside the historic range of variability encouraged DWR staff to construct a modeling scenario that
could indicate possible impacts from extreme reductions in precipitation. This
scenario was designed to show the potential impacts to the water supply pool and
the flow augmentation pool as a result of extreme drought in the river basin due to climate variability. The scenario provides one possible example of potential impacts if the regions climate changed to the point that the flows from precipitation and runoff
were only 80% of the flows identified for the 76-year period of record used in the
model.
For this scenario the 2050 water demands were used and the simulated natural inflows in the model were reduced by 20%. For Jordan Lake, this scenario has 73.5
mgd of water withdrawals. With less flow from tributary streams into the river below
the dam, more water would have to be released from the flow augmentation pool to
maintain river flows within the target range at the Lillington stream gage. This level of reduction in inflows due to changes in precipitation patterns is thought to be much more drastic than available information indicates would be likely. Therefore, this
scenario represents an extreme, but unlikely, future scenario.
From running the 2050 demands with 80% of historic natural inflows scenario we
were also able to verify that 15 Water Supply Systems would now encounter
difficulty in meeting their 2050 water demand, as shown in Table - 8. Other results
of modeling this scenario are also shown in Figure - 17 and Figure - 20.
Table - 8: System Inflows Reduced to 80% of Historical Natural Inflows Under 2050 demands

2050 Longest Years
Demand Defict Demand Not
Node Water Systems (mgd) (Days) Met Out of 76
121 Greensboro Lake Brandt 11.60 12 1
141 Greensboro Lake Townsed 23.19 57 6
143 Cone Mills Richland Lake WS 0.71 14 3
221 High Point City and Oak Hollow Lakes 12.28 72 12
261 Randleman Water Supply 0.56 30 5
301 Ramseur Water Supply 1.09 53 25
391 Orange WASA Cane Creek Resorvoir 6.96 19 2
431 Owasa University Lake 4.68 101 35
591 Robbins (Brooks) 0.27 33 2
781 Dupont WS 12.34 1 1
901 Greensboro Demand Randleman 27.59 22 2
903 Jamestown Demand Randleman 0.72 25 1
904 Archdale Demand Randleman 1.20 24 2
905 Randleman Demand Randleman 1.01 24 2
906 Randolph Co Demand Randleman 6.01 25 2
Longest Deficit (Days) = The greatest number of consecutive days over the entire 76 year record that the full water supply demand maybe is not met. Years Demand Not Met = The number of years out of a total of 76 that the full water supply demand maybe is not met.
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Modeling B. Everett Jordan Lake Reservoir

Jordan Lake Operations
B. Everett Jordan Reservoir is operated by the US Army Corps of Engineers. It was designed to provide for water supply, recreation, flood control, fish and wildlife
management, and low-flow augmentation. As is typical for multi-purpose reservoirs,
the storage volume of the impoundment is divided vertically into separately managed
pools that are delineated by elevation above sea level. The normally empty flood
control pool provides about 538,000 acre feet of controlled flood storage above the conservation pool. The conservation pool provides storage for water supply and low
flow augmentation. Below the conservation pool, the sediment pool provides space
for the accumulation of sediment.

Under normal conditions water level in the reservoir is maintained at the top of the conservation pool at 216 feet above mean sea level (MSL). At this elevation, the
reservoir covers 13,900 acres. Usable water in the reservoir at this elevation is
approximately 140,400 acre-feet and is referred to as the conservation storage.
Approximately 45,800 acre-feet in the conservation pool, or about 15 billion gallons,
is designated to provide public water supply, and is called the water supply pool. This amount of storage is estimated to be able to furnish approximately 100 million
gallons per day (MGD) during the most severe drought.

Figure - 13: Jordan Lake Storage Volume

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In addition to water supply, the reservoir's conservation pool provides 94,600 acre-feet of water for downstream flow augmentation to benefit water quality and economic development. This storage is generally referred to as the flow
augmentation or water quality pool. The water quality pool is used to maintain a
target minimum flow of about 388 MGD (600 cfs) at Lillington during non-drought
periods, and less during droughts. Inflows to and withdrawals from each of these storage pools are accounted-for independently. Therefore, withdrawals from the water supply storage pool do not reduce the amount of water remaining in the flow
augmentation pool.

Jordan Lake has more complex operating rules than the other reservoirs in the basin. During droughts, the Army Corps of Engineers operates the reservoir according to a schedule that indicates how releases should be varied as the water
quality pool draws down. The Corps is in the process of recommending that these
operating rules be approved for permanent inclusion in the operations plan.
In general, releases from the reservoir depend on the amount of water needed to maintain the target flow at Lillington, but releases may be limited based on the
amount of water remaining in the flow augmentation pool when the basin is
experiencing drought conditions. The operating schedule shown in Table - 9
summarizes the proposed drought management protocol. A more complete explanation is included in the 2008 OASIS Model Assessment.
Table - 9: Jordan Lake Reservoir Operating Rules during Drought
Minimum Lillington
Drought % Remaining in Release Target
Stage WQ Pool (cfs) (cfs)
0 80-100 40 600
1 60-80 40 450-600
2 40-60 40 300-450
3 20-40 200 None
4 0-20 100 None

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Some Modeling Results for Jordan Lake
The following sections present some results of modeling the various scenarios used in this analysis. The complete results are shown in several different presentation
formats to aid understanding and can be found at the DWR website.

i. Elevation Profile Elevation profiles show how reservoir levels vary over a specified period of time.
They are useful for examining the shorter term fluctuations in reservoir elevation,
and in this assessment three demand scenarios are shown for the entire 76-year
period of record. It is of particular interest to notice the behavior of the reservoir elevation during
drought periods, when it is drawn down to its lowest levels. The elevation profiles for
the three demand scenarios are presented in Figure - 14. During the major droughts
on record, Jordan Lake is expected to be drawn down increasingly further as water supply demands increase from the base case to the 2050 demand levels.
The profile shows a minimum lake elevation of about 207.5 feet with the estimated
2050 demands scenario during the 2002 drought. Another deep drawdown occurs
during the 1952-53 droughts, drawing the water level down to just below 208 feet. In all scenarios, the reservoir never drops to 202 feet, the elevation that represents a concern for the water systems that rely on Jordan Lake.
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Figure - 14: Jordan Lake Elevation Profile

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ii. Water Supply Pool Profile
Approximately one-third of the water stored in the conservation pool of the reservoir, referred to as the water supply pool, is dedicated to providing water for public water
supply to local governments. The water supply pool is expected to be able to supply
100 mgd of water. Allocations of water are designated as a percentage of the water
supply pool storage. Therefore, an allocation of 10 percent of the water supply pool is generally assumed to represent 10 mgd on average.
Table 9 summarizes current water supply allocations and the current and future
demand levels modeled for the allocation holders. The combined estimated water
supply withdrawals equal 16.94 mgd for the 2003 base case scenario. In the future, combined withdrawals for the allocation holders increase to 63.33 mgd for the 2030 scenario and to 73.54 mgd for the 2050 scenario.

Table - 10: Jordan Lake Allocation (all units in MGD)
Systems Node#
% of Storage Allocation 2003 2030 2050
Cary/Apex 471 32 14.02 32.09 34.88
Chatham Co North 473 6 1.03 9.63 15.88
Durham 476 10 0 10 10
Morrisville 477 3.5 1.5 3.96 3.96
Orange WASA 922 5 0 5 5
Wake Co - RTP 474 3.5 0.39 2.65 3.82

Total Jordan Lake Demand 16.94 63.33 73.54

The water supply pool profiles for the three demands scenarios in Figure - 15 demonstrat that the pool is drawn down increasingly as water supply demand
increases from the base case up to 2050 demand levels. The minimum predicted
storage remaining in the water supply pool is about 50%, which is reached during a
repeat of the 1952-53 drought conditions under the 2050 demands scenario. The
graph also shows that the water supply pool would drop below 55% remaining during a repeat of the 2002 drought conditions with the projected 2050 level of
demands.

Because of the importance of B. Everett Jordan Dam and reservoir to the
satisfaction of water supply needs in the Triangle Region and the augmentation of downstream flows in the Cape Fear River, two additional modeling scenarios were
run. Both of which could be considered as possible worst case scenarios for
stressing the water storage capability of the reservoir.

One scenario was designed to show potential impacts to water supply storage if the entire water supply pool was allocated and being used. Current rules governing
allocation of water supply storage limit allocations of water that would not be
returned to the reservoir’s watershed to 50% of water supply pool. To test the ability
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of the reservoir to provide the total estimated supply of 100 mgd a consumptive use
of 26.5 mgd was added to the 73.5 mgd water supply withdrawals in the 2050 scenario. This created a scenario where 100 mgd is being withdrawn from the water supply pool. The impacts to the water supply pool of this scenario are shown in
Figure - 16.

The increased attention in recent years concerning the potential impacts of climate variability and the possibility of experiencing climate conditions outside the historic range of variability encouraged DWR staff to construct a modeling scenario that
could indicate possible impacts from extreme reductions in precipitation. This
scenario was designed to show the potential impacts to the water supply pool and
the flow augmentation pool as a result of extreme drought in the river basin due to climate variability. The scenario examines one possible example of the potential impacts of climate change if the flows from precipitation and runoff were only 80% of
the flows identified for the 76-year period of record used in the model.

For this scenario the 2050 water demands were used and the simulated natural inflows in the model were reduced by 20%. Furthermore, withdrawals from the reservoir were set at 73.5 mgd. With less flow from tributary streams into the river
below the dam, more water has to be released from the flow augmentation pool to
maintain river flows within the target range at the Lillington stream gage. This level of
reduction in inflows is believed to be more drastic than available information indicates is likely to occur. Therefore, this scenario represents an extreme future scenario. The results of modeling this scenario are shown in Figure - 17 and Figure -
20.

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Figure - 15: Jordan Lake Water Supply Pool Profile – Demands Scenarios
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Figure - 16 shows that the water supply pool profile is lowered significantly under the 100 mgd water supply scenario, lowering the pool as low as 20% full in three different droughts over the 76 year period of record. Because the pool was
not fully depleted under this scenario, it would indicate that the safe yield of the water supply pool may be slightly higher
than 100 mgd.

Figure - 16: Jordan Lake Water Supply Pool Profile – 100 MGD Scenario
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Figure - 17 shows that reducing system inflows to 80% of the simulated historical natural inflows under 2050 demands is expected to impact the water supply pool by drawing it down an additional 2% to 10%. The lowest percent remaining is
still predicted to occur during a repeat of the flow conditions during the 1952-53 droughts lowering the available supply an
additional 5% to about 45 % full.

Figure - 17: Jordan Lake Water Supply Pool Profile – 80% Inflows
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iii. Water Quality (Flow Augmentation) Pool Profile
The water quality (WQ) or flow augmentation pool profile in Figure - 18 shows some interesting and apparently non-intuitive results. However, on closer look, the results
are easily explained. An interesting observation is that the periods when the water
quality pool is drawn down the most do not always occur under the 2050 demands
scenario, but rather sometimes under the base case demand scenarios. The lowest expected level predicted by the model is just above 20% remaining under the base case demands with the inflows that occurred during the 1952-53 drought conditions.
There were no expected occurrences of Stage 4 drought (WQ pool below 20%)
under any of the demands scenarios. This is an indication that the Corps of
Engineers’ drought response measures are effective at maintaining the water quality pool storage even during the most severe drought conditions.
It is important to understand why the model sometimes predicts that the water
quality pool to draw down further under the base case demands than under the
higher 2050 demands. The Town of Cary is currently in the process of developing the Western Wake wastewater treatment plant that is expected to discharge treated wastewater to the Cape Fear River below Jordan Lake and upstream of the
Lillington gage. Discharges from this plant will flow by the Lillington gage and
therefore reduce the amount of water that must be released from Jordan Dam to
meet the target flow at Lillington specified under the drought operating rules. Since water released from the dam to meet the Lillington target comes out of the water quality pool, the increased future discharges from the Western Wake plant will
relieve stress on the water quality pool to meet the Lillington in-stream flow target.
Therefore, as withdrawals from the water supply pool increase with increasing future
water supply demands, releases from the water quality pool that are required to meet the in-stream flow target at Lillington during low flows tend to decrease.
An interesting result of this 2008 assessment is a comparison of the water quality
pool profiles for the normal 2050 demands and scenario, and the scenario in which
the water supply demands from Jordan Lake are increased to 100 mgd. The results show that increasing water supply demands to 100 mgd have little or no noticeable impact on the water quality pool, as observed in Figure - 19. In another modeling
run, the water quality pool profiles for the normal projected 2050 demands scenario
are compared to a scenario with the same demand levels but with inflows to the
system reduced to 80% of historical inflows. This run shows an impact of an additional 3% to 10% of draw down on the water quality pool for most droughts, as shown in Figure - 20.

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Figure - 18: Jordan Lake Water Quality Pool Profile – Demands Scenarios

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Figure - 19: Jordan Lake Water Quality Pool Profile – 100 MGD Water Supply Demand

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Figure - 20: Jordan Lake Water Quality Pool Profile – 80% Inflow

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iv. Impacts on Boating at Jordan Lake
Changes in Jordan Lake’s water levels predicted by the model could affect other uses of the reservoir besides water supply and flow augmentation. One of the
benefits anticipated during development of the reservoir was an increase in
recreational opportunities for the region. The changes to water levels in the
reservoir predicted by the model will impact these recreational uses also. As an example, Figure - 21 shows the duration curves of water levels for Jordan Lake for the five scenarios modeled in this analysis along with the minimum elevation
levels needed for use of the public boat ramps on the reservoir.

This chart shows the percentage of days out of the 27,700 days modeled, when use of each of the boat ramps could be limited over the range of flows in the 76-year period of record. During normal conditions the water level is maintained at
216 feet above mean sea level. The upper line on the graph represents current
conditions. As withdrawals increase in the future the model predicts that use of
many of the boat ramps could be limited more frequently. With increasing future withdrawals, the duration graph shifts to the right indicating an increase in the percent of time that the water level is below that elevation for boat ramp use,
except for the ramps that cluster around 205.5 feet msl.

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Figure - 21: Jordan Lake Boating Impacts
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(b) Ground Water

Hydrogeologic Setting of the Cape Fear River Basin To the east of the fall line (the boundary between the Piedmont and Coastal
Plain), the geology of the Cape Fear River Basin may be characterized as a
gently southeastward dipping, and southeastward thickening wedge of sediments
and sedimentary rock ranging in age from Recent through Cretaceous which rests on an underlying basement complex of Paleozoic and earlier aged rocks.
The basement surface ranges in elevation between 200 feet above sea level and
1,515 feet below sea level within the coastal plain, and dips southeast at a rate of
40 feet per mile in the northwestern part of the area to 72 feet per mile in the
southeast. The sediment wedge is comprised of layers and lenses of sand, clay, silt, limestone, gravel, shell material and combinations thereof which range in
total thickness from zero at the fall line to in excess of 1,515 feet in the southern
tip of New Hanover County and southeastern-most part of Brunswick County. In
a successive manner, older stratigraphic units outcrop immediately west of the
up dip limit of the next younger unit. Deposition occurred in cyclic fashion during alternating transgressions and regressions of the Atlantic Ocean, in marine to
non-marine environments.

The sedimentary column of the lower Cape Fear River Basin is subdivided into
geologic formations and formation members based upon position of layers in the sequence of sediments, lithology, and faunal (fossil) composition. The
subdivision of these deposits into aquifers and confining units is based on the
delineation of non-permeable versus hydraulically connected permeable units,
the boundaries of which sometimes, and sometimes do not, correspond to
geologic formation boundaries. Aquifers and confining units are commonly made up of more than one formation, or may include only part of a formation or parts of
several formations due to the discontinuous distribution of strata in the lower
Cape Fear River Basin.

To the west of the fall line, the upper Cape Fear River Basin is primarily composed of rocks of the Carolina Slate Belt. The Late Proterozoic-Cambrian
aged Carolina Slate Belt rocks are interbedded, metavolcanic tuffs, breccias,
argillites and flows trending northeastward. This basement rock is intruded by
Jurassic aged north to northwest trending diabase dikes and numerous
Proterozoic to Paleozoic aged plutons (igneous intrusive rocks). Fault bounded, northeast trending, Triassic aged mudstone, sandstone, conglomerate, and
minor coal occur near the boundary between the Piedmont and Coastal Plain just
west of the fall line. Jurassic aged diabase dikes also intrude these rocks of the
Triassic Basins.
The hydrogeologic system in the lower Cape Fear River Basin, from basement to
land surface, consists of six regionally significant aquifers and the intervening
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confining units that separate them. They are mentioned from youngest to oldest
as follows: The surficial, or water table aquifer, is made up primarily of Quaternary age
sediments. It also includes parts of older formations depending on the varying
age of underlying sediments and the varying stratigraphic position of the
uppermost confining layer. The Castle Hayne aquifer is comprised primarily of the Eocene age Castle Hayne
Formation. The confining unit occurs in the Quaternary age units that overly the
aquifer.
The Peedee aquifer is made up of the Peedee Formation. In the southeastern corner of the study area, the aquifer includes all, or part of, the Paleocene age
Beaufort Formation. The confining unit is generally present in the Beaufort
Formation or upper part of the Peedee Formation.
The Black Creek aquifer corresponds primarily to the Black Creek Formation. In some areas the aquifer includes the upper part of the Cape Fear Formation and
the lower part of the Cretaceous Peedee Formation. The confining unit is made
up of clay or silt beds in the upper part of the Black Creek or lower part of the
Peedee Formations. To the northwest of the pinchout of the Peedee Formation, the confining unit of the Black Creek aquifer may include Pliocene age Yorktown or younger age deposits which directly overly the Black Creek Formation. In this
area, the Black Creek aquifer can include permeable beds in the lower part of
these younger formations.
The Upper Cape Fear aquifer corresponds to the upper part of the Cape Fear Formation and sometimes the lower part of the Cretaceous Black Creek
Formation. The confining unit is composed of clay or silt beds present in the
lower part of the Black Creek or upper part of the Cape Fear Formation.
The Lower Cape Fear aquifer is comprised, along with its confining unit, of the lower part of the Cape Fear Formation of Cretaceous age.

Piedmont aquifers are categorized as either fractured basement rock, overlying
regolith (saprolite or weathered basement rock, soil and alluvium or recent sedimentary deposits), or Triassic Basin.

General Description of the Ground Water System
Representative hydrogeologic cross sections through the Cape Fear River Basin are shown in Figure - 22 (or a better resolution figure in a PDF format),
exhibiting the complexity of ground water flow patterns and salt water interfaces
in relation to hydrogeologic units. Ground water flows in a rather complex three
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dimensional pattern through the subsurface in a multilayered Coastal Plain
environment. Flow occurs laterally through aquifers from recharge to discharge areas along flow lines which parallel directions of steepest hydraulic gradient. Flow also occurs vertically upward to discharge areas or downward in recharge
areas in response to differences in hydraulic head between aquifers. For a better
figure definition view, Figure 23 is also available in a PDF format.
All of the aquifers in the coastal plain contain salt water over regions of varying extent, due to fluctuations of sea level that occurred during deposition of coastal
plain sediments. The surficial aquifer contains salt water on the barrier islands
along the coast of New Hanover and Pender Counties, as well as along the
fringes of the coastline, and other areas where high tides cause natural intrusion of salt water. As recognized by Winner and Coble (1989), the position of fresh water-salt water interfaces within North Carolina Coastal Plain aquifers has a
very complex pattern. Sediments were deposited during cyclic fluctuations of
sea level over geologic time. The seaward limit of fresh water is unique for each
aquifer as governed by variations in hydraulic properties, position and rates of recharge, thickness and hydraulic conductivity of overlying confining beds, and hydraulic gradients. Salt water interfaces are not sharply defined, but occur as
transition zones of variable width due to diffusion between salty and fresh water.
The movement of fresh ground water through deeper confined aquifers in the
coastal plain causes interfaces to retreat slowly seaward over geologic time. However, in areas of heavy ground water pumping and resultant water level declines, saline ground water can move toward pumping centers due to a
reversal of hydraulic gradient.

As illustrated by a generalized annual water budget model for the lower Cape Fear River Basin (Figure - 23 a), recharge occurs predominantly through rainfall, which enters the surficial (or water table) aquifer in the inter-stream areas. The
lower Cape Fear River Basin receives an average of 50 inches of total
precipitation per year based on historical records covering the years between
1971 to 2000 (Southeast Regional Climate Center, Historical Climate Summaries for North Carolina 1971 to 2000, Website ). Based on a water budget model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for Brunswick County (Harden, Fine
and Spruill, 2003), and using precipitation data averaged for the area, it was
determined that about 8 inches of the 50 inches of total annual precipitation is
lost to overland flow to nearby surface water bodies. Another 32 inches are taken up annually through evapotranspiration. Of the 10 inches of water that enters the water table as recharge, 9 inches per year flows from recharge to
discharge areas such as the Cape Fear, Lumber, South, and Waccamaw Rivers,
associated floodplains, and the Boiling Springs Lakes. One inch or less of
ground water per year enters the deeper confined aquifers as recharge. This water budget model assumes steady state conditions in which no pumping from the ground water system is occurring.

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Figure - 22: Hydrogeologic Cross Sections in CFRB (vertically exaggerated)

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Figure - 23: Typical Water Budgets for the (a)Coastal Plain and (b)Piedmont Portions of CFRB
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The Piedmont Cape Fear River Basin water budget (Figure - 23 b) from Daniels
and Sharpless (1983) differs slightly from the coastal plain model with differing amounts of average rainfall, evapotranspiration, and runoff. The biggest distinction is the lack of a recharge component to confined aquifers.

Division of Water Resources Monitoring Well Network The operation of the monitoring well network is an integral part of DWR’s mission
to ensure that the State has an adequate water supply for its citizens.
Information collected quarterly from this well network is used to:

• Evaluate climatic influences on the State’s ground water supply, including
effects of drought and recharge-discharge relationships;
• Monitor human-induced effects on the State’s ground water supply, particularly in the regional aquifer systems of the Coastal Plain
physiographic province. These effects include local and regional water
level declines as well as migration of the fresh water-salt water interface
within various aquifers;
• Provide supporting data for enforcement and creation of current and future ground water usage regulations, such as the Central Coastal Plain
Capacity Use Area rules; and
• Provide high quality ground water data to local governments, ground water
professionals, and the general public to use in making informed decisions in ground water related issues.

Data collected from the network are available to the public through DWR’s
internet website, www.ncwater.org. These data include ground water levels,
chloride measurements, well construction information, borehole log construction (lithological and geophysical), ground water monitoring station locations, and
geophysical/lithological data collection from non-DWR well sites.

The monitoring well network currently consists of 555 wells at 182 monitoring
stations (sites). There are 22 wells located in the Piedmont and Mountain physiographic provinces (Piedmont and Mountain) and 533 wells located in the
Coastal Plain physiographic province (Coastal Plain). Since the Coastal Plain
relies more heavily on ground water supplies than either the Piedmont or
Mountain Regions, ground water monitoring and research has been more
concentrated in the Coastal Plain.
Hourly water level data are extremely valuable in assessing aquifer recharge,
impacts of large storms on ground water conditions, and delineation of aquifer
boundaries. DWR typically publishes only the manual water level readings and
daily water level data from recorders on the website. Hourly data is available upon request for specific wells.

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Recently more resources have been invested in monitoring the Piedmont and
Mountain ground water conditions to better understand the impact of drought cycles on ground water supplies and their contribution to surface water flow. Although DWR and USGS have been continually monitoring the well network, the
drought network was officially established in 2001 with the development of the
DWR drought web page to house the data. There are presently 35 wells within
the DWR monitoring well network used to assess drought conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has also contributed to the monitoring of the
State’s ground water resources under a cooperative agreement between the
State of North Carolina and the Federal government. The cooperative well
network consists of 23 monitoring wells, many of which are also part of the DWR statewide network.
There are 88 DWR network wells and two wells operated by the USGS within the
Cape Fear River Basin. These wells are screened in eight different aquifers in
the Coastal Plain and include three wells in basement rock. Eleven of the DWR & USGS network wells within the Cape Fear River basin have been designated as drought wells. Table - 11 summarizes the network wells in the Cape Fear
River Basin.

The distribution of the network wells by aquifer in the basin is as follows: Surficial – 35, Peedee – 11, Upper Cape Fear – 12, Lower Cape Fear – 2, Black Creek – 20, Castle Hayne – 5, Upper Tertiary – 1, basement rock – 3, and
regolith – 1. Eleven of these wells are used to monitor drought conditions (one
by the USGS and ten by DWR).
The drought indicator well network now stands at 46 wells distributed throughout North Carolina. DWR has established a near term goal of 60 wells associated
with that network. Certainly, additional wells in the Cape Fear River Basin will be
part of that formula. In order to better assess the hydrogeologic conditions of the
entire Cape Fear River Basin, additional well stations need to be installed (especially in counties that currently do not have stations) and existing stations may need additional wells added.

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Table - 11: County Summary of Cape Fear River Basin Wells

County Station Name No. of Wells Drought Wells Total by County
Bladen Kelly 3 1
DuPont 6
Smith McNair House 2
Dublin 5 Bladen - 16
Brunswick Maco 2
Town Creek 2
Boiling Springs RS2 2
Boiling Springs RS1 1
Southport RS4 3 1 Brunswick - 10
Cumberland Cedar Creek Fire Tower 4
Seabrook School 1 1
Bushy Lake 3 Cumberland - 8
Duplin Pink Hill 4
Rose Hill 5 1
Chinquapin 3 Duplin - 12
Guilford Gibsonville 1 1 Guilford - 1
Hoke Raeford 1 Hoke - 1
Moore Hog Island 3
Southern Pines Water Plant 2
Southern Pines 1 2
Eastwood 1
Weymouth Woods 2 Moore - 10
New Hanover Wilmington Airport 1 1
Fort Fisher 1 New Hanover - 2
Onslow Folkstone 6 Onslow - 6
Pender Topsail Beach 4 1
Burgaw 2 Pender - 6
Randolph NC Zoo 1 1 Randolph - 1
Sampson Halls 3 1
Turkey 2
Six Runs 6
Ivanhoe 3 Sampson - 14
Wake Fuquay-Varina 1 1 Wake - 1
DWR Total 10 88
Brunswick USGS, BR-100 1
Orange USGS, NC-126 1 1
Total 11 90
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Ground Water Assessment Techniques
Because ground water flow in the coastal plain’s confined aquifers do not honor the current basin boundaries (ground water flow occurs across basin
boundaries), the DWR network wells provide a regional picture of the stress on
the aquifers. So, the distribution of wells in the Upper Cape Fear aquifer
throughout the coastal plain gives us data to assess the status of that aquifer even though we may not have many wells in that aquifer within the Cape Fear River Basin boundaries. There are two recent examples of where water levels
collected from the confined aquifer wells were used to determine who was
withdrawing ground water and whether a capacity use area designation would be
needed to correct an over-pumping situation. Peedee aquifer water levels began dropping dramatically in the southeastern
portion of Brunswick County during 2003-2004. Three monitoring stations
exhibiting this trend were used to pinpoint the location of a new large withdrawal
from the aquifer. Cogentrix Inc., north of Southport, was determined to be the new user and they were required to submit a registration of their usage through the state-wide DWR water withdrawal registration program as required by
General Statute 143-215.22H.

Upper Cape Fear aquifer water levels began dropping in the early 1990’s as a result of withdrawals from Smithfield Foods in Tar Heel, Bladen County and other users. The impact from these withdrawals could be measured into neighboring
counties and river basins within a few years based on the monitoring well
network data for that aquifer. A 2004 agreement between the Lumber River
Council of Governments, the DWR and the EMC convinced Smithfield Foods and other water users to begin planning for use of surface water from the Cape Fear River for their water needs. Planning necessary for the construction of a new
intake on the river, called Bladen Bluffs, is well on its way.

Use of the monitoring well network (or an improved network with additional wells and better geographic distribution) for ground water assessment in the coastal plain portion of the Cape Fear River Basin is a valuable method to determine
where the confined aquifers are being stressed too heavily or salt water intrusion
may become a problem. In addition, the network is clearly a useful tool to
estimate the impact of drought conditions on the shallow ground water levels throughout the basin. The monitoring well network has been useful not only for identifying problems of excessive drawdown in Bladen County and Southeastern
Brunswick County as previously mentioned, but has allowed the Ground Water
Management Section to detect the lateral encroachment of salt water in the
Peedee Aquifer in Onslow County. Between October, 1999 and September, 2004, chloride concentrations in the Peedee Aquifer at the DWR, Folkstone monitoring station increased from 35 to 266 parts per million (ppm).
Concentrations of greater than 250 ppm chloride are defined by the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency to be salt water. Pumping from the Castle
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Hayne Aquifer, in the Onslow County well field apparently affected water levels in
the underlying Peedee Aquifer to an extent that the salt water/freshwater interface has migrated westward and affected the DWR Folkstone Peedee monitoring well. The value of the network in identifying problems of this nature is
invaluable, as it provides early warning signs of problems that can be corrected
before they become more serious. The addition of new monitoring wells or
monitoring stations to the DWR network will continue to enhance our capability to identify and manage situations that otherwise would remain unrecognized.
Using the network for more than drought assessment in the Piedmont portion of
the river basin is not practical. Aquifers in the Piedmont do not have regional
characteristics like in the coastal plain, so a network would require too many wells to gauge local aquifer conditions to be practical.
Other investigators have relied on recharge estimations to the shallow ground
water system as a method of defining the capabilities of aquifers. They have
established rates of recharge in gallons per day per square mile using water budget models based on base flow determinations from surface water gage data. Those workers assume that discharge from the aquifer system (base flow)
equates to the rate of recharge to the aquifer system and an annual rate
available for use by wells (or some portion thereof). However, these safe yield
type calculations are wrong and impractical. They are wrong because the analysis requires that a balance between withdrawals, recharge, and natural discharge be constant over time which is definitely not the case. A safe yield
determined for a county or large portion of a county is impractical because it
would require a huge number of wells and access to large areas of land to come
close to withdrawing the estimated rate. Use of annual rates of recharge or potential withdrawal rates only highlights areas where ground water is more or less plentiful.

Those types of analyses do not indicate whether a particular ground water
withdrawal is sustainable or without conflict with other nearby users. Use of ground water flow models would fall victim to the same limitations of the safe yield determinations. They would also fail to properly imitate the complex nature
of flow in the basement rock aquifer of the Piedmont. The current surface water
model of the Cape Fear River (although it does not explicitly model ground water
flow) does implicitly measure discharges from the ground water system into surface water along the modeled water course. If one could estimate the ground water discharge amounts from this knowledge, it would still be a rate applied to
some large area of land and of little use to a ground water management program.

Heath (1994) mapped rates of recharge to the surficial aquifer state-wide. Figure - 24 shows two pictures of the upper Cape Fear River Basin, both with the digital elevation data (lighter shades of gray equate to higher elevations), hydrography,
and the fall line. The second picture shows the distribution of Heath’s recharge
rates as well. The Triassic Basin areas stand out in both pictures as they remain
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basins today and contain sediments which make it a slowly recharging area
(150,000 gallons per day per square mile). There is an area in the northwestern portion of the upper Cape Fear River Basin where basement rock fractures appear to control hydrography. Surface water drainage patterns do not appear
as dendritic (or irregularly branched like a tree). Even with estimates of recharge
rates as shown on this map, there is not enough information available to discern
whether a site is capable of providing enough water or that it will not compete with a neighboring well field.
The dot on Figure - 24 labeled with an “X” in each map identifies an aquifer test
done in May 1983 associated with the Daniel and Sharpless (1983) report. At
this site, 20 wells were drilled and monitored during the test. A production well was pumped for 62 hours at 38.5 gallons per minute.
Lastly, the total volume of water withdrawn suggested that water stored in the
basement rock fractures was untouched by the test – virtually all the water came
from storage in the regolith (unconsolidated material above the basement rock). All of this information would not be available without an individual site assessment.

Understanding the sustainability of ground water withdrawals in the Piedmont
portion of the Cape Fear River Basin must rely on information derived from a local assessment of resource potential by the user, careful maintenance of existing production wells, and tracking of water level and quality measurements
from production wells over time. The same methods work for the Coastal Plain
portion of the basin with the added benefit of a monitoring well network to assess
the regional stress on confined aquifers.
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Figure - 24 Upper CFRB with and without Heath (1994) Recharge Rates
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(c) Instream Flow
This chapter includes a general background discussion of instream flow needs and
how they are determined and managed (more detail is provided in the Appendix), followed by a description of how instream flow needs have been addressed to date in the Cape Fear Basin Plan.
(i) Instream and Offstream Water Use
Instream flow needs refer to the amount of water needed to support instream uses -
those stream functions that are maintained by water being in the natural channel,
including.
• Aquatic Habitat
• Water Quality (e. g. dissolved oxygen, temperature)
• Channel Morphology (stream banks, channel shape, & substrate)
• Wetlands
• Aesthetics
In contrast to instream uses, offstream uses are those that require removal of water
from the natural channel. Offstream uses may remove water temporarily or
permanently from the source stream. Permanent removal of water by a withdrawal
(i.e. water that is not discharged back to the source stream) is referred to as a consumptive use. Examples of offstream uses include:
• Public Water Supply
• Industrial Water Supply
• Agricultural Water Use
• Offstream Recreational Water Use (golf course irrigation, snow making)
• Electric Power Generation
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Growth in the state’s population and economy will be accompanied by pressure to increase withdrawals from surface waters to satisfy offstream demands. At the
same time, preserving adequate instream flows is important to maintain the
environmental quality that attracts people and business to North Carolina. Increased
water supply withdrawals are often accompanied by increased wastewater
discharges, and adequate flows for wastewater assimilation can become a critical instream flow issue when the same stream is used for upstream withdrawals and
downstream discharges. Peaks in the offstream demand for agricultural and
residential irrigation occur during drought - paradoxically the same time that stream
flows are in shortest supply - and can lead to potential conflicts between offstream
demands and instream flow needs. Awareness of this issue was heightened by experiences during the droughts of 2002 and 2007-08.

Careful management of water resources is necessary to maintain instream flow
needs and still meet reasonable offstream demands for water. It is important to
include instream flow needs in basinwide water supply modeling and planning, since leaving instream flow needs out of the equation would not provide an accurate
picture of water availability.
(ii) Quantifying Instream Flow Needs
Determining the quantity of water needed to maintain instream flow needs
incorporates:
• Location – site-specific characteristics including habitat and drainage area
• Timing – seasonal hydrologic patterns, organism life cycles
• Measurement – typically measured in cubic feet per second (cfs)
The amount of water used for offstream purposes is generally not difficult to
determine. Flows through pipes and pumps can be calculated or measured and
public water systems meter usage for billing purposes. Wastewater treatment plants
also meter the flow being discharged, and using this information allows the
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percentage of consumptive loss to be calculated. Knowing the existing use by
business, industry and residences allows future demand to be predicted on a per capita basis. Uncertainties about the amount of offstream demand are most often due to difficulties in gathering data, particularly for dispersed, intermittent uses such
as irrigation.

The amount of water needed to maintain instream uses can be more difficult to determine. Various evaluation techniques are available, depending on the instream flow need that is being quantified. Some of these techniques are based on flow
statistics for the stream in question and are a desktop approach. Other approaches
require site-specific field studies that can vary in complexity.
Water Quality Flow Needs – Water quality models can be used to evaluate the effect of a given amount and concentration of effluent on downstream water quality.
This approach does not determine the flow needed to maintain water quality, but
instead uses a minimum drought flow statistic to determine the amount and degree
of treatment of the wastewater discharge that is needed to maintain state water quality standards for relatively short periods under worst case low flow conditions. The drought flow statistic used is the lowest flow that occurs for seven consecutive
days, with a recurrence probability of once every ten years – referred to as the
7Q10. The assumption is that water quality standards may not be maintained when
flows fall below the 7Q10, but this is a very infrequent, acceptable risk. Therefore, it is very important to realize that the 7Q10 is NOT intended to be the flow that maintains water quality or aquatic habitat for any great length of time.

Recreational Flow Needs – The amount of instream flow needed for recreation
depends on the activity and may be seasonal, or vary between weekends and weekdays.

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Aquatic Habitat Flow Needs – This instream flow need applies to all streams,
throughout the year - unlike recreational flow needs or some other instream uses, which may or may not be applicable to a given stream, or may only be relevant during certain periods. There are a variety of techniques for determining a quantity
of instream flow needed to maintain aquatic habitat. These range from desktop
approaches that use hydrologic information about the stream to calculate a flow
number, to site-specific field study methods with varying degrees of complexity and data needs. More details on the various methods used in North Carolina are included in the Appendix.

For the past 25+ years, two field study approaches have been used in North
Carolina to evaluate instream flows needed for aquatic habitat. A wetted perimeter study is the more simplistic of the two, in that it assumes any area of wetted stream channel has the same habitat value, regardless of habitat characteristics. Several
wetted perimeter studies were conducted throughout the Cape Fear basin as part of
a federally funded water planning study in the early 1980s. A copy of the instream
flow report resulting from those studies is included in the Appendix. In recent years, the field study approach used for instream flow and aquatic habitat
studies has shifted primarily to the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM).
This approach entails more complex data collection and modeling than a wetted
perimeter study and evaluates habitat amounts according to quality of habitat. A map showing the various field studies of instream flow needs for aquatic habitat in
the Cape Fear Basin is shown below in Figure - 25. The internet-based version of
this report includes an interactive version of this map that can be used to access
additional information about each study.
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Figure - 25: Instream Flow Study Sites in the Cape Fear River Basin, NC

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(iii) Maintaining Ecological Integrity
Over the past 10 years, concern has grown amongst aquatic biologists that
recommendations for instream flow needs have focused too much on only minimum flows. These threshold flows are intended to maintain aquatic life for relatively short periods of time. The lower the minimum, for example the 7Q10 flow, the more it is
suited only to allow survival for brief periods. Ecosystems suffer when the minimum
flow becomes THE flow for extended periods. As offstream demands increase, the
potential for leaving only the minimum flow in the stream for longer and longer periods also increases.

The goal of protecting instream flows should be to maintain ecological integrity of the
stream. Ecological integrity is “the ability to support and maintain a balanced,
integrated, adaptive community of organisms having a species composition, diversity, and functional organization comparable to that of the natural habitat.”4

A living system exhibits ecological integrity if, when the system is subject to
disruption, it recovers and continues to provide the natural goods and services that
normally accrue from that system. Ecological integrity includes biological, chemical and physical components.
If ecosystems are to be maintained in a healthy condition, a “flow regime” approach
is needed rather than just a minimum threshold flow. This is especially important for
streams that have significant existing or projected withdrawals for offstream uses. A
flow regime encompasses the magnitude, timing, frequency, duration, and rate of change of stream flows.
A flow regime approach retains some degree of natural stream flow variability, and
thus avoids an aquatic population shift towards generalist, lowest common
denominator species. One way to implement a flow regime approach is to set aside
a percentage of the varying natural inflow for offstream use or storage in reservoirs, leaving the remainder to support a healthy aquatic ecosystem with varying flows downstream of the withdrawal or dam. This represents a change from setting aside
only a minimum for the stream and allocating all of the rest for offstream uses.
Basinwide hydrologic modeling and implementation of drought protocols can help
manage offstream withdrawals and maintain instream flow regimes without degrading ecological integrity.

4 Karr, J.R. and D.R. Dudley. (1981). Ecological Perspectives on Water Quality Goals.
Environ. Manage. 5: 55-68. See generally
http://www.epa.gov/bioiweb1/html/biolref.html

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(iv) The Existing Review Process for Instream Flows
For specific proposed projects, the DWR works with other divisions and agencies to
evaluate instream flow concerns as part of the preparation of environmental documents and review of permits. Flow requirements have been included in the following:
• Approvals of a Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) for Environmental
Assessments (EA’s) – subject to State Environmental Policy Act (SEPA)
• Conditions of section 401 certificates issued by the NC Division of Water
Quality – subject to federal Clean Water Act
• Conditions of section 404 permits issued by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers – subject to federal Clean Water Act
• Articles in hydropower licenses issued by the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission (FERC)
• Requirements in dam safety permits issued by the NC Division of Land Resources
• Withdrawal permits in designated Capacity Use Areas – subject to NC Water
Use Act of 1967 Depending on the nature of the project, a field study to evaluate instream flow needs
may be required.
(v) Incorporating Instream Flow Needs in Basinwide Modeling and
Planning
For modeling and planning purposes, instream flow needs will need to be quantified
at numerous locations throughout the basin in order to evaluate existing and proposed withdrawals and reservoirs that modify stream flows. Ideally, these
instream flow amounts would be determined using state-of-the-art field study
approaches. However, this is not practical in terms of the time and staff that would
be required to achieve basinwide coverage. Therefore, a screening approach is
needed that will identify reaches where available water may not be sufficient to satisfy existing or projected offstream uses and still maintain ecological integrity and
other instream uses.

It is very important to recognize that a screening approach is NOT intended for use
as a tool in setting instream flow requirements. For example, if a screening tool uses “x” percentage of the average flow as an indicator of instream flow concerns,
this does NOT mean that “x” percentage of average flow is the only flow that needs
to be continually maintained in the stream. A screening tool is only intended to flag
stream reaches with potential concerns during the basinwide planning process.
Individual water projects will still be subject to site-specific review and evaluation, and watersheds with flagged reaches of concern might require additional instream
flow studies for water supply planning purposes.

An initial attempt to develop a screening approach for the Cape Fear Basin Plan
used an approach based on the percentage of average annual flow remaining in the
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stream after flow modifications, as outlined in the table below. The Appendix
contains additional description of this approach, called the Tennant Method. The historical average annual flow at each node location was determined using the basin model under the unregulated scenario. At each node, the percentages of flows
falling within different ranges of a percentage of average annual flow were calculated
for different times of the year. These were then compared for the unregulated flows
and existing 2003, projected 2030, and projected 2050 offstream demand flow scenarios (scenarios modeled under section 1.2).
Table - 12: Modified Tennant Method Guidelines for Preliminary Screening of Instream Flow
Concerns

The plots shown in Figure -26 through Figure – 28 are examples of a summary of
stream flow levels using the preliminary screening criteria in the table above. Daily
stream flows at points of interest throughout the basin were estimated using the basin hydrologic model for the entire 75 years of record. Then the percentage of
days during the 75-year period when flows were within each of the various stream
flow brackets was calculated. The Cape Fear River Basin 2008 Assessment
includes the results for all of the nodes.
While the attempt at a screening process shown in the examples above is a good first step, additional analysis is needed to address the question of what constitutes a
significant, undesirable effect on the various instream uses that depend on adequate
stream flows. For example, in the third figure shown below the most notable
differences are seen between the unimpaired and existing conditions in the first
three flow brackets: 0–10%, 10–20% and 20–30% of average annual flow. The key question remaining is: do these shifts in hydrology adversely affect aquatic habitat?

Additional analysis is needed to test this and other possible screening
approaches before it is applied further. This analysis will use existing aquatic
habitat study sites, with a focus on those sites where the more sophisticated Instream Flow Incremental Methodology field study approach was used to develop a
relationship between flow and habitat. The basin hydrologic model will be used to
produce flows at these study sites with varying degrees of alteration. Analyzing the
effects of these simulated hydrologic alterations on aquatic habitat at the study sites
Description of Flow Levels March to May June to November December to February
Level 1 < 10% of QAA* Severe Degradation Severe Degradation Severe Degradation
Level 2 10 - 20% of QAA Poor or Minimum Fair or Degrading Fair or Degrading
Level 3 20 - 30% of QAA Fair or Degrading Good Good
Level 4 30 - 40% of QAA Good Excellent Excellent
Level 5 40 - 50% of QAA Excellent Outstanding Outstanding
Level 6 50 - 60% of QAA Outstanding Outstanding Outstanding
Level 7 60 - 100% of QAA Optimum Optimum Optimum
Level 8 100 - 200% of QAA Optimum to Flushing Optimum to Flushing Optimum to Flushing
Level 9 >200% of QAA Flushing or Maximum Flow Flushing or Maximum Flow Flushing or Maximum Flow
*QAA is the Average Annual Flow
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will allow development of a screening tool based on a flow indicator that corresponds
to a threshold level of aquatic habitat impact, with a conservative safety margin. An improved screening process would still only be used for basinwide planning
purposes. New or increased water withdrawals would still undergo site-specific
instream flow evaluations as part of the environmental review and permitting
process.

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Figure - 26: Stream Condition Middle Deep River, Dec-Feb
Stream Condition Middle Deep River (Node 280)
December- February
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unregulated 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands
%
o
f

D
a
y
s

a
t

F
l
o
w

L
e
v
e
l
< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 280 = 227 mgd or 351 cfs

Table - 13: Stream Condition: Middle Deep River (Node 280)
Level Dec-Feb Unregulated
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands
1 < 10% of QAA* 2.2% 3.5% 1.7% 2.6%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 6.7% 7.0% 12.7% 11.6%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 9.2% 8.8% 14.2% 15.5%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 9.6% 9.1% 10.3% 10.9%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 9.2% 9.2% 8.3% 8.4%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 8.2% 8.2% 7.1% 7.1%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 20.6% 20.4% 17.1% 16.5%
8 100 - 200% of QAA 18.8% 18.5% 15.4% 14.8%
9 >200 of QAA 15.4% 15.4% 13.1% 12.5%

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Figure - 27: Stream Condition Middle Deep River, March-May
Stream Condition Middle Deep River (Node 280)
March-May
Spawning Impacts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Unregulated 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands
%
o
f

D
a
y
s

a
t

F
l
o
w

L
e
v
e
l
< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 280 = 227 mgd or 351 cfs

Table - 14: Stream Condition: Middle Deep River (Node 280)
Level Mar-May Unregulated
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands
1 < 10% of QAA* 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 4.6% 9.2% 10.7% 10.8%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 9.1% 10.5% 18.5% 18.9%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 11.4% 9.5% 11.7% 12.5%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 9.7% 8.3% 7.9% 8.4%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 8.8% 7.8% 6.1% 5.7%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 23.8% 21.9% 17.3% 16.6%
8 100 - 200% of QAA 18.5% 17.8% 14.6% 14.0%
9 >200 of QAA 13.9% 14.1% 12.7% 12.5%

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Figure - 28: Stream Condition Deep River, Jun-Nov
Stream Condition Middle Deep River (Node 280)
June - November
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Unregulated 2003 Demands 2030 Demands 2050 Demands
%
o
f

D
a
y
s

a
t

F
l
o
w

L
e
v
e
l
< 10% of QAA*
10 - 20% of QAA
20 - 30% of QAA
30 - 40% of QAA
40 - 50% of QAA
50 - 60% of QAA
60 - 100% of QAA
100 - 200% of QAA
>200 of QAA
*QAA (average annual flow) at Node 280 = 227 mgd or 351 cfs

Table - 15: Stream Condition: Middle Deep River (Node 280)
Level June-Nov Unregulated
2003
Demands
2030
Demands
2050
Demands
1 < 10% of QAA* 20.6% 14.8% 10.6% 11.2%
2 10 - 20% of QAA 24.9% 34.5% 41.5% 41.5%
3 20 - 30% of QAA 16.0% 14.3% 16.9% 16.3%
4 30 - 40% of QAA 10.3% 8.4% 7.5% 7.6%
5 40 - 50% of QAA 5.8% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9%
6 50 - 60% of QAA 3.8% 3.9% 3.6% 4.2%
7 60 - 100% of QAA 8.2% 8.9% 7.5% 7.4%
8 100 - 200% of QAA 5.6% 5.3% 3.8% 3.6%
9 >200 of QAA 4.8% 4.7% 3.5% 3.3%

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1.3 Climatology

The humid subtropical climate of North Carolina consists of long, hot, humid
summers and short, mild winters5. The spring and autumn seasons provide the most pleasant weather and are the periods most favored by many of the State’s residents.
On average, annual precipitation across the state ranges from about 38 inches to
more than 80 inches. Eastern areas of the Coastal Plain receive between 50-55
inches, primarily because of sea-breeze effects and tropical storms that occur
primarily in the late summer and early autumn. Precipitation during the winter tends to be widely distributed, and many areas of the State can receive a substantial
amount from a single storm system. Summer rainfall tends to be spotty, resulting
from the convective patterns of daily heating and subsequent evaporation that aid in
developing thunderstorms. Under typical patterns, much of the moisture delivered to
North Carolina comes from the Gulf of Mexico. With a Bermuda high-pressure system that typically resides in the central North Atlantic Ocean, prevailing winds
generally come from the south or southwest, thereby enabling the transport of
moisture. Additionally, some storms move across the southern tier of the United
States and turn northeastward along the eastern seaboard, delivering precipitation in
a “wrap-around” effect. More common in the winter, these storms are sometimes referred to as “nor’easters” because of the cool and breezy conditions that
accompany them. Some of the heaviest recorded snowfalls in eastern North
Carolina resulted from these coastal storms (USGS Report, 2005). Statistical
analyses were performed using the observed rainfall, snowfall and temperature data
from several weather stations.
(a) Precipitation
The rainfall and snowfall data were collected from the South East Regional Climate
Center (SERCC) for five stations. On average one station was selected along the
major river with significant rainfall variation for location. The selected stations are at: Greensboro, Siler City, Sanford, Fayetteville and Wilmington. All these stations have
long period of records ranging from 35 years to more than 100 years. The map in
Figure - 29 shows the locations of the five stations in the river basin.

5 Page 11, http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5053/pdf/SIR2005-5053.pdf

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Figure - 29: Map of Five SERCC Weather Stations

The average annual precipitation plots for those stations are shown in Figure - 30. This plot shows that the highest average annual rainfall of 54.6 inches was observed
at the Wilmington station in the lower basin. The rainfall amounts are relatively lower
in the upper basin. In Greensboro, the average is only 43.5 inches. However, the
average snowfall accumulation is much higher in Greensboro (8.6 inches) and much
lower in other stations. Therefore, more than 52 inches of total annual average precipitations were observed in Greensboro and in Wilmington, whereas the other
stations had close to 50 inches.

Figure - 31 shows the monthly average rainfall pattern. Wilmington is located in the highest rainfall producing area in wet months, but the year-round amounts do not vary that much from upper basin to lower basin. The average monthly rainfall varies
from 2.7 inches to 7.8 inches across the basin throughout the year.

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Figure - 30: Average Annual Precipitation
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
Greensboro Siler City Sanford Fayetteville Wilmington
Locations
An
n
u
a
l

R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

(
i
n
c
h
e
s
)
Snowfall
Rainfall
Figure - 31: Average Monthly Rainfall
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Av
e
r
a
g
e

R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

(
i
n
)
Greensboro Siler City Sanford Fayetteville Wilmington

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(b) Temperature
Temperature readings recorded at the same five SERCC weather stations
(Greensboro, Siler City, Sanford, Fayetteville and Wilmington) were analyzed. Temperature variations across the basin are relatively small. Figure - 32 and Figure - 33 show the average monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. The maximum
temperature varies from upper 40s to lower 90s. The minimum temperature varies
from upper 30s to lower 70s. The two plots show that seasonal minimum
temperature variation is more than seasonal maximum temperature variation.
Figure - 32: Average Maximum Temperature
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Av
g

M
a
x

T
e
m
p

(
F
)
Greensboro Siler City Sanford Fayetteville Wilmington

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Figure - 33: Average Minimum Temperature
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Av
g

M
i
n

T
e
m
p

(
F
)
Greensboro Siler City Sanford Fayetteville Wilmington

1.4 Water Quality

For complete information on Water Quality in the Cape Fear River Basin, please visit
the link to NCDWQ’s Cape Fear River Basinwide Water Quality 2005 Plan.
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2 Water Management
2.1 Drought Response Plan and Implementations

Drought Response Legislation

Legislation addressing drought management has been enacted by the North
Carolina General Assembly since the drought of the 1980’s and following droughts. The drought that culminated in 2002 was followed by the drought of 2007-2008,
identified as the worst drought in more than 100 years in North Carolina.

During these most recent droughts, water users and community water systems were
severely stressed and a number of people experienced economic loss as a result of water shortages. Some communities were dangerously close to running out of water.
The experience with the droughts emphasized the importance of proper
management of North Carolina’s water supplies. Recent drought legislation has
included provisions designed to improve water supply planning, enhance the
registration and maintenance of water use and water withdrawal data, reduce drought vulnerability and allow for quicker responses to future water shortage
emergencies.

The North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council (NC-DMAC) was created
by law in 2003. Its predecessor, the Drought Monitoring Council, was an interagency coordinating and information exchange body created in 1992. The
original council did a creditable job of monitoring and coordinating drought
responses in the 2002 drought. Consequently, the General Assembly recognized
the Drought Monitoring Council’s leadership role by assigning it official statutory
authority and changing its name to the Drought Management Advisory Council to reflect the broader role of the council, which encompasses more than just monitoring
drought conditions. Local drought conditions in North Carolina are reported each
Tuesday by a technical team of the NC-DMAC to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM).
The USDM, which is defined as the national drought map, serves as the drought
map for North Carolina as well. The USDM designates areas of drought using the following categories D0-Abnormally Dry, D1-Moderate, D2-Severe, D3-Extreme, and
D4-Exceptional. The map is updated weekly based on current conditions and a new
USDM is released each Thursday.

In 2003, legislation required the Environmental Management Commission to develop rules establishing minimum standards for water use during droughts. After several
years of work, the resulting rules (15A NCAC 2E .0600) became effective in March
2007. The rules require water systems and users to plan ahead for drought
conditions and establish protocols or plans that will adjust water demands to
minimize detrimental impacts. For water systems required to prepare and update a Local Water Supply Plan (LWSP), these plans must be included in their LWSP as a
Water Shortage Response Plan (WSRP). An effective WSRP should adhere to the
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guidelines set forth by the water use rules during drought. Water users without a
written plan are advised to follow the applicable default water use reduction measures outlined in Section .0614 of the rules during exceptional and extreme drought classification as depicted by the US Drought Monitor of counties in North
Carolina. A WSRP establishes authority for declaration of a water shortage, defines
different phases of water shortage severity, and outlines appropriate responses for
each phase. The registration and reporting of water withdrawal and transfers have been required
for more than a decade. Recent rulemaking has mandated that registered water
users must electronically submit water use information annually to the DWR by April
1 of each year. Drought legislation enacted by the General Assembly and signed into law on July
31, 2008, includes provisions to improve water use data; reduce drought
vulnerability; and allow for quicker response to water shortage emergencies. It
changed some existing water supply and drought planning policies and gave DENR the responsibility to approve Local Water Supply Plans and Water Shortage Response Plans. DWR is presently developing the review and approval process
that will be used to accomplish this task. Prior to this legislation, these plans were
submitted to DWR and reviewed for consistency with the general requirements
contained in the authorizing legislation, but no formal approval was required. The 2008 Drought Legislation further requires water systems to implement the
approved Water Shortage Response Plans, or EMC-adopted default conservation
measures, when conditions warrant. This legislation provides DENR with the
authority to issue civil penalties to water systems for failure to implement these measures when required. This is a new responsibility for DENR (DWR) that will require new monitoring, tracking, and enforcement efforts. The Session Law also
gives DENR the authority to require the implementation of more stringent response
levels contained in the WSRPs, if necessary to achieve needed water withdrawal
reductions. DWR is mandated to provide the necessary analysis and justification for such actions.

Water Shortage Response Plans for Local Water Supply Systems
Within the Cape Fear River Basin there are a total of 64 public water systems required to prepare Local Water Supply Plans. This group includes community water
systems that regularly serve 1,000 or more service connections or 3,000 or more
individuals and any unit of local government that provides or plans to provide public
water service. According to rules governing water use during droughts and water emergencies (15A NCAC 02E. 0607), these systems are required to submit a water shortage response plan or they are subject to implementing a set of default rules
governing water use during periods of extreme or exceptional drought, as
designated by the NC-DMAC. As of January 2009, approximately 80 % of these
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water systems have submitted water shortage response plans to the Division of
Water Resources. Plans are viewable on the Division’s website.
Table - 16: Water Shortage Response Plan Data

Number of Local
Water Supply Plan Systems
Water Shortage
Response Plans Submitted
Percent of Systems with Plans
Cape Fear River Basin 64 51 80%
North Carolina
542 467 86%
Assessments indicate widely varying levels of detail on water shortage protocols included in these plans. Plan review criteria developed from 15A NCAC 02E. 0607
requirements stipulate essential information which must be provided in all water
shortage response plans. Key among these are the authority responsible for
declaration of a water shortage, the definitions of tiered stages of water shortage severity, and the corresponding responses appropriate to each stage. Additionally, all plans must include specific conditions which trigger implementation of drinking
water use reduction measures and movement to more restrictive and less restrictive
stages.
The triggers that are used to activate the various water conservation measures vary according to water system supply types, such as reservoirs, run-of-river, ground
water, purchase or combination systems. Examples of suitable triggers for each
supply type are available on the DWR website. As specified in the legislation, all
water shortage response plans are considered approved upon submission until they are formally disapproved by DWR staff

Water System Water Conservation Status
The DWR and Public Water Supply Section (PWSS) regional offices have worked together to make possible the on-line reporting of the status of water conservation
requirements by public water systems. This on-line database provides a consistent
way to document and track status of and impacts to public water supply systems.
The system is operational and in use, and tracks the more than 600 water systems throughout the state. This information can be accessed at: http://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/reporting/index.php

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Registration of Water Withdrawals and Transfers
Information on all users of water is important for the establishment and implementation of drought management measures in the river basin. In addition to
information contained in local plans the NC-DMAC uses data from registered water
withdrawals and surface water transfers between river basins maintained by the
DWR. In general terms, this registration requirement applies to any non-agricultural water
user who withdraws 100,000 gallons or more in any one day of ground water or
surface water or who transfers 100,000 gallons or more in any one day of surface
water from one river basin to another. An agricultural water user who withdraws 1,000,000 gallons or more in any one day of ground water or surface water or who transfers 1,000,000 gallons or more in any one day of surface water from one river
basin to another.

Units of local government that withdraw water or transfer surface water meet their obligation to register by submitting and regularly updating a Local Water Supply Plan.

A listing of registered water users and the annual water use data submitted to the
Division are available on-line on the DWR website. This website allows the user to view the water use data by river basin or by county.

North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council
The primary function of the NC-DMAC is to provide consistent and accurate information on drought conditions in the state to the USDM, to water users, and the
public about drought conditions in the state to help improve the management and
mitigation of the harmful effects of drought. The NC-DMAC is required to meet at
least once a year and as needed during drought. A technical team of the NC-DMAC holds a weekly conference call on Tuesday of
each week to assess drought conditions in the state. Information gathered in this
weekly update is reported to the author of the USDM map that is updated and
released each Thursday (www.ncdrought.org). Weekly drought advisories are issued by the NC-DMAC showing drought conditions
by county in North Carolina. Counties under drought advisories are listed each
week by drought classification. The drought response actions listed for the counties
are based on the county drought classification (www.ncdrought.org).
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Drought Response and Drought Proofing Activities
The PWSS and the DWR have established a list that ranks local water systems in three tiers of drought vulnerability. PWSS regional engineers review and update the
drought vulnerability tier list and identify community water systems needing
assistance. This ranking is a subjective assessment based on best professional
judgment and experience of PWSS field staff. Systems remain at their highest tier-level until a supplemental water source is available to provide an emergency water supply and reduce the system's vulnerability to drought.

Tier Definitions Tier-1: systems are considered to be in a crisis mode (or) have less than 100 days of present supply remaining (or) are likely to be in a crisis if conditions persist
because they lack interconnections for emergency water supply.

Tier-2: systems are not in crisis now but could be within the next few months. Tier-3: systems are not yet in a vulnerable position but are subject to change as the
drought continues.

The list of water systems currently in Tier 1, 2 and 3 in the state is available online at: http://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/reporting/weekstatust123.php

Seven community water systems in the Cape Fear Basin were identified as Tier-1
systems in the 1998-2002 and 2007-2008 droughts: Robbins, Southern Pines, Swepsonville, Greensboro, Carthage, Moore County and Siler City. These systems applied for and received emergency funds to reduce their vulnerability to drought.
Projects included new water sources or interconnections with a nearby water
system.
Water Audits and Leak Detection

Community water systems have been encouraged to increase their water use
efficiency, identify leaks, and examine other areas where water could be saved. DENR has worked with communities to help conduct water system audits. So far twenty-three systems have requested help in conducting water audits of their
systems. DWR has contracted with five engineering firms to conduct the water
audits and leak investigations and to report their findings to the communities and to
DWR. In the Cape Fear Basin, a contract is in place for water audit and leak detection assistance for High Point.
In the Cape Fear Basin, the local supply plans that were submitted in 2002 for 111
water systems indicated that 58 had an unaccounted-for water loss estimate of less
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than ten percent, 34 systems had an unaccounted-for loss of 10 to 20 percent, and
19 systems recorded unaccounted-for losses greater than 20 percent.
2.2 Interbasin Transfer

Surface Water Transfers in the Cape Fear River Basin
Development of municipal water systems is a responsibility assumed by local
governments. In most cases, current public water systems represent the expansions
and improvements that have been made to water systems originally established many decades ago. As communities grew in area and population, water systems
grew to provide customers with dependable supplies of drinking water and water for
other purposes, especially fire fighting. The desire to avoid damage from periodic
flooding encouraged community development on the higher ground out of the flood
plain where feasible. In some locations this high ground forms the boundary between two different river basins resulting in communities with residents in multiple
river basins. As a result of this, drinking water systems supplying these communities
must distribute water to multiple river basins. For some communities, choosing the
best site for a wastewater treatment facility meant building it in a river basin different
from their source of water. Surface water not returned to the source basin by customers in another basin and wastewater discharges in a basin different from the
source constitute transfers of water under the legislation regulating the interbasin
transfer of surface waters.

Like most river basins in North Carolina, the Cape Fear River Basin has water systems that move water between rivers and hydrologic units within the basin and
some that move water out of the basin entirely. A detailed discussion of the
regulations related to interbasin transfers of surface water can be found at the DWR
website. Basically, moving large quantities of surface water between the river basins
requires permission of the EMC. Water systems that had the ability to move water across these basin boundaries when the interbasin transfer legislation was initially
enacted are allowed to continue with the transfer up to the maximum capacity that
was in place in July 1993. This capacity is referred to as their “grandfathered
capacity”. Transfers greater than two million gallons per day or increases in a
system’s transfer to more than two million gallons per day, if it is greater than the system’s grandfathered capacity, are not allowed without receiving permission from
the EMC.

In the Cape Fear River Basin there are many water systems that depend, to some
extent, on moving surface water between the basins defined by the legislation regulating surface water transfers. Two groups of entities using surface water from
this river basin have received a formal authorization for an interbasin transfer from
the EMC to transfer large quantities of water. In the appendix of this document there
is a table summarizing this movement of water in the Cape Fear River Basin.

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The Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority, composed of the municipalities of
Archdale, Greensboro, High Point, Jamestown, and Randleman and Randolph County, worked over several decades to develop a new reservoir to supplement existing water sources in the Triad Region. In 1991 the Authority received
permission to transfer up to 30.5 million gallons per day from the Deep River Basin
to the Haw and Yadkin River Basins to allow for the use of water from the proposed
Randleman Lake Reservoir. The reservoir has since been completed although the facilities to withdraw and treat the water are still under development.
The Commission’s decision includes requirements for minimum releases from
Randleman Reservoir. Under normal conditions 30 cubic feet per second (cfs) of
water must be released to the river below the dam. During drought conditions, releases may be reduced based on the amount of water remaining in the reservoir. If the remaining storage drops below 60%, the release may be reduced to 20 cfs and if
it drops below 30%, the releases may be cut back to 10 cfs. A copy of the document
authorizing this transfer can be found at the DWR website.
In 2001, the EMC gave permission, with conditions, to the Towns of Cary, Apex and Morrisville and Wake County (representing Research Triangle Park – South), as a
group, to transfer up to 24 mgd from the Haw River Basin to the Neuse River Basin.
All of these systems hold allocations of water from B. Everett Jordan Reservoir and
get their drinking water from a water treatment plant co-owned by the towns of Cary and Apex. Likewise, wastewater collected from these systems is treated by water reclamation facilities operated by Cary and Apex. Cary and Apex had an existing
approved interbasin transfer of 16 mgd from the Haw River Basin to the Neuse River
Basin associated with the permitted wastewater treatment plant discharges.
In its 2001 decision, the Commission stipulated that, after 2010, any water used for other than consumptive purposes in the Neuse Basin in excess of 16 million gallons
per day must be returned to the Haw or Cape Fear River basins. This stipulation
requires the construction of a new wastewater reclamation facility to treat the
wastewater collected in the Neuse River Basin in excess of 16 mgd. The planning, environmental review and permitting of the new facility and associated collection system have not been completed. A final decision on the preferable location for the
new facility’s discharge has not been made. Due to the nuances of the existing
interbasin transfer law, at least one of the possible options would require a
certification of another interbasin transfer from the Haw River Basin to the Cape Fear River Basin. This requirement would add significant time and expense to the project and would likely postpone completion to well beyond the 2010 limit
established in the existing interbasin transfer certificate. Copies of the application,
environmental review documents and the Commission’s decision can be found at
the DWR website. Many water systems in North Carolina depend on moving surface water between
river basins at volumes below the threshold that triggers the need for the EMC
interbasin transfer approval. Water systems are allowed to transfer up to 2 mgd or
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the limits of their “grandfathered capacity” before they have to seek authorization for
an interbasin transfer from the EMC. Most of the water systems that transfer water between basins have not exceeded their grandfathered capacity or transfer less than 2 mgd and therefore the transfers are not subject to approval by the EMC. In the
appendix of this document there is a table summarizing this movement of water in
the Cape Fear River Basin.
Based on information contained in Local Water Supply Plans there are 114 active water systems that depend on water from the Cape Fear River Basin. Twenty-four
water systems withdraw surface water as their source of drinking water. These
twenty-four systems provide water to an additional fifty-three water systems.
Therefore, there are seventy-seven water systems in the basin that depend on surface water withdrawals to meet some or all of their customers water needs. Of the seventy-seven systems that depend on surface water, either by withdrawing it
directly or by purchasing treated surface water, thirteen systems discharge
wastewater to a basin different from the source. Twenty-seven of the seventy-seven
water systems provide drinking water to customers in a basin different from the source of the water.
As communities in the Cape Fear River Basin continue to grow and water system
service areas expand to provide drinking water to more customers, there will be
more communities that will need to petition the EMC for an interbasin transfer certificate. Some of these petitions will be necessary because the water systems are approaching the limits of their grandfathered capacity and others because water
systems are contemplating transfers of over two million gallons a day for the first
time.

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2.3 Data Management Needs

Surface Water
The Cape Fear River Basin contains 105 USGS stream flow gage stations; among
those there are 42 stations equipped to provide real time monitoring of flows and
water levels along with other useful parameters. The distribution of the gages are
shown in the map in Figure - 34 As can be seen from the map the gage stations are
concentrated in the upper hydrologic units in the basin. There is only one active gage in Black River HU. The addition of more gages in this drainage would
significantly enhance water resource data for this area.

Figure - 34: USGS Streamflow Gage Locations in Cape Fear River

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Ground Water
The drought indicator well network consists of 46 wells distributed throughout North Carolina. The DWR has established a near term goal of 60 wells associated with
that network. Certainly, additional wells in the Cape Fear River Basin will be part of
that formula. In order to better assess the hydrogeologic conditions of the entire
Cape Fear River Basin, additional well stations need to be installed (especially in counties that currently do not have stations) and existing stations may need additional wells to improve the quality of data collected.

Water Use and Conservation The DWR has developed two electronic reporting systems to implement the 2008
Drought Legislation (S.L. 2008-143) and its associated water use reporting
requirements. These systems report and record the level of water conservation
measures that have been implemented by individual water systems. The weekly water use of the various water systems will also be recorded (when this weekly water use reporting requirement has been implemented by DENR).

During times of drought, the Cape Fear water systems’ water conservation status
and weekly water use reporting (when required) can be found on the DWR website.
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References:
Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., 2008: Climate
Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp.
Brekke, L.D., Kiang, J.E., Olsen, J.R., Pulwarty, R.S., Raff, D.A., Turnipseed, D.P.,
Webb, R.S., and White, K.D., 2009, Climate change and water resources
management-A federal perspective: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331, 65 p.

Census Bureau, USA, 2008, http://www.census.gov/.
Daniel, C. C., Sharpless, N. B., 1983, Ground-Water Supply Potential and
Procedures for Well-Site Selection Upper Cape Fear River Basin, NC Department of
Natural Resources and Community Development and US Water Resources Council,
72 p.
Division of Water Resources, NCDENR, http://www.ncwater.org/.

Floyd, E. O., Peace, R. R., 1974, An Appraisal of the Groundwater Resources of the
Upper Cape Fear River Basin North Carolina, Groundwater Bulletin Number 20, USGS and Department of Natural and Economic Resources, 16 p.

Heath, R. C., 1994, Ground-Water Recharge in North Carolina, Department of
Environment, Health, and Natural Resources, 52 p.
Lautier, J. C., 2006, Hydrogeologic Framework and Ground Water Conditions in the
North Carolina Southern Coastal Plain, Division of Water Resources, NC
Department of Environment and Natural Resources, 43 p.

North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, October 2005, “Cape Fear Basinwide Water Quality Plan”
http://h2o.enr.state.nc.us/basinwide/documents/chapter32waterresources_001.pdf.

Office of State Budget and Management, NC, http://www.osbm.state.nc.us/.
Readling, P. E., Wright, R. E., Crews-Klein, J., 2006, Water Supply and Demand
Methodology, Water 2030 Initiative, Rural Economic Development Center, Inc., 8 p.

Schipf, R. G., 1961, Geology and Ground-Water Resources of the Fayetteville Area,
Ground-Water Bulletin Number 3, USGS and NC Department of Water Resources, 99 p.

Sheffield, Justin and Eric F. Wood, Projected changes in drought occurrence under
future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations, Nov.
2007.
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Southeast Regional Climate Center, “Historical Climate Summaries for North
Carolina”, http://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/historical_nc.html Sun, Ge, Steven G. McNulty, Jennifer A. Moore Myers, and Erika C. Cohen, march
2008. Draft: Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply across the
Southeastern United States. Journal: Journal of the American Water Resources
Association. US Geological Survey, 2005, “The Drought of 1998-2002 in North Carolina –
Precipitations and Hydrologic Conditions”.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5053/pdf/SIR2005-5053.pdf
Wilder, H.B., Robison, T.M., and Lindskov, K.L., 1978, Water Resources of Northeast North Carolina: U.S. Geological Survey, Water-Resources Investigations
77-81, 113 p.

Winner, Jr., M. D., Coble, R. W., 1996, Hydrogeologic Framework of the North Carolina Coastal Plain, U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1404-I, 106 p.
Wooten Company & Groundwater Management Associates, Inc., 2003, Water
Resource Plan: The Southern Coastal Plain Comprehensive Ground Water Study &
Assessment, Lumber River Council of Governments.

Appendices

Cape Fear River Basin
Water Supply Plan

NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources

January 2009

Table of Contents

1. COUNTY SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................3
A. DEMOGRAPHICS...........................................................................................................................4
B. LOCAL WATER SUPPLY PLANS, COUNTY POPULATIONS AND GROWTH TRENDS ..............................5
C. COUNTY AND SERVICE AREA POPULATION (WATER SYSTEM’S POPULATION)..................................8
2. BASIN SPECIFIC ISSUES ..........................................................................................................17
A. FERC – HYDROPOWER .............................................................................................................17
B. THE USE OF WATER SUPPLY ON JORDAN LAKE ...........................................................................20
3. INSTREAM FLOW NEEDS..........................................................................................................21
4. DROUGHT...................................................................................................................................30
5. GROUND WATER.......................................................................................................................40
6. INTERBASIN TRANSFER...........................................................................................................58

2
1. County Summary
Counties and Municipalities in the Cape Fear River Basin

By following the Local Governments and Planning Jurisdictions in the Basin, the
Cape Fear River basin encompasses all or portions of 26 counties and 115
municipalities, presented in table 1. Twenty-seven municipalities are located in more
than one major river basin, and 15 municipalities are located in more than one county.

Table 1: Population data from Office of State Planning for municipalities with populations greater than
2,000 persons, located wholly or partly within the basin and represents 53 of the 115 municipalities in the basin.
County Municipalities
Alamance Alamance, Burlington, Elon, Gibsonville, Graham, Green Level, Haw River, Mebane, Swepsonville
Bladen Dublin, East Arcadia, Elizabethtown, Tar Heel , White Lake
Brunswick Bald Head Island, Belville, Boiling Spring Lakes ♦, Caswell Beach, Leland, Navassa, Northwest, Saint James, Sandy Creek, Southport
Caswell None
Chatham Cary, Goldston, Pittsboro, Siler City
Columbus Bolto, Sandyfield
Cumberland Falcon, Fayetteville, Godwin, Hope Mills, Linden, Spring Lake, Stedman, Wade
Duplin Beulaville, Calypso, Faison, Greenevers, Harrells *, Kenansville, Magnolia, Mount Olive, Rose Hill, Teachey, Wallace *, Warsaw
Durham Chapel Hill *, Durham, Morrisville
Forsyth High Point, Kernersville
Guilford Archdale, Gibsonville, Greensboro, High Point, Jamestown, Kernersville, Oak Ridge, Pleasant Garden, Sedalia, Stokesdale, Summerfield, Whitsett
Harnett Angier, Broadway, Coats, Dunn, Erwin, Lillington
Hoke Raeford
Johnston Benson
Lee Broadway, Sanford
Montgomery Biscoe, Candor, Star
Moore Cameron, Carthage, Pinehurst, Robbins, Southern Pines,Taylortown, Vass, Whispering Pines
New Hanover Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wilmington, Wrightsville Beach
Onslow Holly Ridge, North Topsail Beach, Surf City
Orange Carrboro, Chapel Hill, Durham, Mebane
Pender Atkinson, Burgaw, Saint Helena, Surf City, Topsail Beach, Wallace, Watham
Randolph Archdale, Asheboro, Franklinville, High Point, Liberty, Ramseur, Randleman, Seagrove, Staley
Rockingham Reidsville ♦
Sampson Autryville, Clinton, Falcon, Garland, Harrells, Newton Grove, Roseboro, Salemburg, Turkey
Wake Apex, Cary, Fuquay-Varina, Holly Springs, Morrisville
Wayne Mount Olive
Source: North Carolina Center for Geographic Information and Analysis (CGIA), 1997.
3
For a better visualization of the counties, below is the map of the counties in the Cape Fear River Basin

Figure 1: Counties in the Cape Fear River Basin

a. Demographics
In the last few decades the population growth in some parts of the Cape Fear River
Basin area has being influenced mainly by the availability of jobs, specially in high
technology industries, but other facts like cost of living, environmental attractions,
weather, education and security has also played their roles. The most populated
areas are located in and around the Triad, Triangle, Fayetteville and Wilmington. Those counties in the upper basin and along the coast are experiencing high
population growth that will add increased drinking water demands and wastewater
discharges.
4
Population in the Cape Fear River basin has grown from just under 1.5 million to
over 1.8 million people from 1990 to 2000 (NC DENR Water Quality, 2005). The
overall population of the basin based on 2000 Census data is 1,834,545, with
approximately 197 persons/square mile. If this trend continues, the 26 counties with
some land area in the Cape Fear River basin are expected to increase population from just fewer than 3 million to over 5 million people (28.9 percent) by 2020.
Projections by Water Resources division for the Counties in the Cape Fear River
Basin estimates that from 2000 to 2020 will have a population growth of 43% and by
2050 an 106% increase, compared also with 2000 census

b. Local Water Supply Plans, County Populations and Growth Trends

For the purposes of this analysis we assumed that local officials have a better
perspective of how their communities will grow than we do. Because, generally, local
water systems in their Local Water Supply Plans only provide data up to 2020, we will based our estimations of population growth beyond that on the pattern of their
population growth.

The Local Water Supply Plans (LWSPs) are updated every five years with 1992
being the first year on which most plans were based. The 1992 LWSPs are based on actual water supply and demand conditions in calendar year 1992, so are the
1997 and 2002 updates. The 1992 plans, the 1997 and 2002 updates included
estimates of service population for 2000, 2010 and 2020. The future population
projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050 were based on actual population figures for
1992, 1997 and 2002, and population estimates for 2000, 2010 and 2020. These population projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050 are linear projections and this
method assumes that over the period from 2020 to 2050, population growth will
continue the same pattern as reflected in the period 1992 to 2020, and it seems
reasonable, given the limits of existing information. The 1990 and 2000 are Census data and the other years are projections from Office of State Budget and Management and NCWRD.

Table 2 below contains the total population in each county and it says how much
percent of that population is in the basin. The 1990 and 2000 population data is from the Census Bureau while the other data are projections made by the Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM), and the Division of Water Resources at
NCDENR.

5
Table 2: County population Projections and % in the Cape Fear River Basin
County
Percent of County in
Basin
1990 2000 2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Alamance 100 108213 130800 135317 148192 167362 187943 207357 226946
Bladen 69 28663 32278 33001 32556 32583 32471 34180 34947
Brunswick 45 50985 73141 77572 111155 146227 179424 210917 243984
Caswell 10 20662 23501 24069 23453 23416 23234 24444 24930
Chatham 100 38979 49326 51395 62887 77008 91491 103678 116968
Columbus 11 49587 54749 55781 54225 53370 52281 54203 54561
Cumberland 98 274713 302960 308609 317094 333174 346686 367530 384848
Duplin 100 39995 49063 50877 54788 61111 68153 75182 82005
Durham 27 181844 223314 231608 267086 309651 353630 396126 439104
Forsyth 2 265855 306063 314105 352810 401019 451350 494952 541615
Guilford 97 347431 421048 435771 480028 539335 600192 664921 727255
Harnett 100 67833 91085 95735 112513 135239 158751 180900 203494
Hoke 57 22856 33650 35809 47096 61890 78396 90422 104395
Johnston 2 81306 121900 130019 171548 225194 283401 328537 379389
Lee 100 41370 49170 50730 59358 70107 81418 90515 100640
Montgomery 6 23359 26827 27521 27941 29189 30544 32639 34299
Moore 79 59000 74768 77922 87915 100874 113650 127932 141454
New Hanover 100 120284 160327 168336 202411 242460 280977 322414 362748
Onslow 22 149838 150355 150458 174731 183501 189191 203364 214471
Orange 49 93662 115531 119905 131797 145119 156958 175778 191311
Pender 100 28855 41082 43527 54764 67889 80558 93667 106695
Randolph 56 106546 130471 135256 142620 155057 167598 184771 199357
Rockingham 19 86064 91928 93101 91485 90830 89836 92127 92727
Sampson 99 47297 60161 62734 66320 73080 80460 89368 97257
Wake 15 426311 627846 668153 920298 1230382 1560026 1810843 2098690
Wayne 9 104666 113329 115062 116386 120056 123152 128720 133065
Source: Census Bureau, Office of State Budget and Management, NCDENR DWR.

6
This third table is a little bit different from the previous one, because here the Population Projections represents the percent of population of the county inside the
river basin, instead of the total population in each county.

Table 3: Total River Basin Population According to the County Population
County
Percent of County in Basin 1990 2000 2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Alamance 100 108213 130800 135317 148192 167362 187943 207357 226946
Bladen 69 19777 22272 22771 22464 22482 22405 23584 24113
Brunswick 45 22943 32913 34907 50020 65802 80741 94913 109793
Caswell 10 2066 2350 2407 2345 2342 2323 2444 2493
Chatham 100 38979 49326 51395 62887 77008 91491 103678 116968
Columbus 11 5455 6022 6136 5965 5871 5751 5962 6002
Cumberland 98 269219 296901 302437 310752 326511 339752 360179 377151
Duplin 100 39995 49063 50877 54788 61111 68153 75182 82005
Durham 27 49098 60295 62534 72113 83606 95480 106954 118558
Forsyth 2 5317 6121 6282 7056 8020 9027 9899 10832
Guilford 97 337008 408417 422698 465627 523155 582186 644973 705437
Harnett 100 67833 91085 95735 112513 135239 158751 180900 203494
Hoke 57 13028 19181 20411 26845 35277 44686 51541 59505
Johnston 2 1626 2438 2600 3431 4504 5668 6571 7588
Lee 100 41370 49170 50730 59358 70107 81418 90515 100640
Montgomery 6 1402 1610 1651 1676 1751 1833 1958 2058
Moore 79 46610 59067 61558 69453 79690 89784 101066 111749
New Hanover 100 120284 160327 168336 202411 242460 280977 322414 362748
Onslow 22 32964 33078 33101 38441 40370 41622 44740 47184
Orange 49 45894 56610 58753 64581 71108 76909 86131 93742
Pender 100 28855 41082 43527 54764 67889 80558 93667 106695
Randolph 56 59666 73064 75743 79867 86832 93855 103472 111640
Rockingham 19 16352 17466 17689 17382 17258 17069 17504 17618
Sampson 99 46824 59559 62107 65657 72349 79655 88474 96284
Wake 15 63947 94177 100223 138045 184557 234004 271626 314804
Wayne 9 9420 10200 10356 10475 10805 11084 11585 11976
Total 1494145 1832593 1900282 2147107 2463467 2783125 3107291 3428023
Source: Census Bureau, Office of State Budget and Management, NCDENR DWR
7
8
c. County and Service Area Population (Water System’s Population)

The table 4 below represents the Service Are Population, served its respective
system, and the percent of the population that is inside each County.

The Local government that provides water to its public is responsible to prepare Local Water Supply Plan, and this plan contains vital information for sustainable use
and allocation of the water. The data from each Water System is compiled in the
DWR database. The Local Water Supply Plans provided water system
characteristics through the year 2020 and up to 2050 the population projection,
water demand and wastewater discharge are estimated by the DWR staff and any information discrepancies is resolved by that staff.

The Local Water Supply Plans (LWSPs) are updated every five years and mostly
based on the first one, the 1992. The 1992, 1997 and 2002 LWSPs were based on
actual water supply and demand conditions and all included estimates of service population up to 2020.

Our population projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050 are linear projections of the
population data presented by each system from the LWSPs, from 1992 to 2020. Our
methodology assumes that the population growth will continue the same pattern as reflected in the period of 1992 to 2020. Few of our projections (DWR) for service
area population from 2030 to 2050 presented bigger population projection then the
total county population and we suppose this was a result of the different approaches
applied by different agencies (DWR and some NC Water Systems).

Table 4: Service Area Population
ounty Water System 1992 1997 2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Alamance Burlington Service Area Population 40369 43200 45480 51151 58976 68406 79443 92085
% of County Population 33.61% 34.52% 35.24% 36.40% 38.31% 40.58%
Alamance Graham Service Area Population 10347 11725 13530 14562 17017 19627 22638 26110
% of County Population 10.00% 9.83% 10.17% 10.44% 10.92% 11.50%
Alamance Mebane Service Area Population 4960 5100 8076 12200 15860 19830 24300 29160
% of County Population 5.97% 8.23% 9.48% 10.55% 11.72% 12.85%
Alamance Haw River Service Area Population 1928 2183 2183 2350 2600 3000 3400 3800
% of County Population 1.61% 1.59% 1.55% 1.60% 1.64% 1.67%
Alamance Elon Service Area Population 4695 5045 6969 8420 10178 11937 13695 15453
% of County Population 5.15% 5.68% 6.08% 6.35% 6.60% 6.81%
Alamance Green Level Service Area Population 1536 1536 2133 2300 2500 2600 2800 3000
% of County Population 1.58% 1.55% 1.49% 1.38% 1.35% 1.32%
Alamance Alamance Service Area Population 259 257 375 328 387 476 513 566
% of County Population 0.28% 0.22% 0.23% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
Alamance Ossipee SD Service Area Population 300 300 400 425 450 527 586 644
% of County Population 0.30% 0.29% 0.27% 0.28% 0.28% 0.28%
Alamance Swepsonville Service Area Population 1209 1413 1630 1850 2107
% of County Population 0.82% 0.84% 0.87% 0.89% 0.93%
County Population 135317 148192 167362 187943 207357 226946

Guilford Greensboro Service Area Population 194000 199000 229634 264598 307007 350196 383767 418306
% of County Population 52.70% 55.12% 56.92% 58.35% 57.72% 57.52%
Guilford High Point Service Area Population 70258 71160 89306 98879 110839 122799 134759 146719
% of County Population 20.49% 20.60% 20.55% 20.46% 20.27% 20.17%
Guilford Gibsonville Service Area Population 3799 3799 4427 5637 7004 8553 10260 12285
% of County Population 1.02% 1.17% 1.30% 1.43% 1.54% 1.69%
Guilford Jamestown Service Area Population 3000 4329 5470 6000 7000 7500 8200 8500
% of County Population 1.26% 1.25% 1.30% 1.25% 1.23% 1.17%
Guilford Archdale Service Area Population 7100 8500 9257 10500 13000 14000 15000 16000
% of County Population 2.12% 2.19% 2.41% 2.33% 2.26% 2.20%
County Population 435771 480028 539335 600192 664921 727255
9

Randolph Asheboro Service Area Population 21000 20222 23694 26007 30689 34128 37878 41627
% of County Population 17.52% 18.24% 19.79% 20.36% 20.50% 20.88%
Randolph Randleman Service Area Population 3200 3526 4247 5300 6200 7100 8300 9600
% of County Population 3.14% 3.72% 4.00% 4.24% 4.49% 4.82%
Randolph Randolph Co Service Area Population 83634 90002 195471 108003 121457 144282 152994
% of County Population 66.54% 137.06% 69.65% 72.47% 78.09% 76.74%
Randolph Ramseur Service Area Population 2300 2524 2300 2970 3240 3560 3912 4260
% of County Population 1.70% 2.08% 2.09% 2.12% 2.12% 2.14%
Randolph Liberty Service Area Population 2344 2200 2702 2783 2867 2953 3038 3123
% of County Population 2.00% 1.95% 1.85% 1.76% 1.64% 1.57%
Randolph Franklinville Service Area Population 225 823 1250 1350 1458 1575 1700 1850
% of County Population 0.92% 0.95% 0.94% 0.94% 0.92% 0.93%
County Population 135256 142620 155057 167598 184771 199357

Rockingham Reidsville Service Area Population 14011 14085 14477 15321 16033 16650 17066 17492
% of County Population 15.55% 16.75% 17.65% 18.53% 18.52% 18.86%
Rockingham Rockingham Co Service Area Population 92 0 204 2082 2085 2294 3347 4052
% of County Population 0.22% 2.28% 2.30% 2.55% 3.63% 4.37%
County Population 93101 91485 90830 89836 92127 92727

Bladen Elizabethtown Service Area Population 4000 4181 5895 6457 7098 7804 8580 9433
% of County Population 17.86% 19.83% 21.78% 24.03% 25.10% 26.99%
Bladen Dublin Service Area Population 251 447 447 450 450 450 450 450
% of County Population 1.35% 1.38% 1.38% 1.39% 1.32% 1.29%
Bladen White Lake Service Area Population 3400 1010 529 581 640 704 775 850
% of County Population 1.60% 1.78% 1.96% 2.17% 2.27% 2.43%
Bladen Tar Heel Service Area Population 268 204 210 225 240 256 272 288
% of County Population 0.64% 0.69% 0.74% 0.79% 0.80% 0.82%
Bladen East Arcadia Service Area Population 670 700 730 760 790 820
% of County Population 2.03% 2.15% 2.24% 2.34% 2.31% 2.35%
Bladen Bladen Co. WD (West & E Arcadia) Service Area Population 2675 4282 4221 4500 4800 5000 5300 5500
% of County Population 12.79% 13.82% 14.73% 15.40% 15.51% 15.74%
10
Bladen Bladen Co WD (East Bladen) Service Area Population 432 1240 1925 2100 2250 2400 2600 2700
% of County Population 5.83% 6.45% 6.91% 7.39% 7.61% 7.73%
Bladen BLADEN CO WD - E ARCADIA Service Area Population 62 496 970 1368 1765 2482 3083 3683
% of County Population 2.94% 4.20% 5.42% 7.64% 9.02% 10.54%
Bladen Lower Cape Fear WSA Service Area Population 292178 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% of County Population
County Population 33001 32556 32583 32471 34180 34947

Chatham Siler City Service Area Population 5272 5541 6966 7300 7613 7942 8282 8639
% of County Population 13.55% 11.61% 9.89% 8.68% 7.99% 7.39%
Chatham Pittsboro Service Area Population 2200 2022 2413 3195 4492 6316 8878 12482
% of County Population 4.69% 5.08% 5.83% 6.90% 8.56% 10.67%
Chatham Goldston Gulf SD Service Area Population 1158 1000 1200 1250 1280 1290 1295 1300
% of County Population 2.33% 1.99% 1.66% 1.41% 1.25% 1.11%
Chatham Chatham County East Service Area Population 710 680 835 2286 2862 4323 6425 9526
% of County Population 1.62% 3.64% 3.72% 4.73% 6.20% 8.14%
Chatham Chatham County Southwest Service Area Population 1789 1793 2250 5047 5396 7341 10130 14203
% of County Population 4.38% 8.03% 7.01% 8.02% 9.77% 12.14%
Chatham Chatham County North Service Area Population 3735 5860 7500 13209 40974 61828 93294 98318
% of County Population 14.59% 21.00% 53.21% 67.58% 89.98% 84.06%
County Population 51395 62887 77008 91491 103678 116968

Cumberland Fayetteville Service Area Population 130000 159225 178200 243160 315840 402480 445140 487800
% of County Population 57.74% 76.68% 94.80% 116.09% 121.12% 126.75%
Cumberland Spring Lake Service Area Population 10500 12050 9565 10065 11575 13310 15310 17605
% of County Population 3.10% 3.17% 3.47% 3.84% 4.17% 4.57%
Cumberland Stedman Service Area Population 777 668 664 744 844 944 1044 1144
% of County Population 0.22% 0.23% 0.25% 0.27% 0.28% 0.30%
Cumberland Falcon Service Area Population 695 695 714 757 807 857 907 957
% of County Population 0.23% 0.24% 0.24% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
Cumberland Wade Service Area Population 438 457 477 532 590 595 660 730
% of County Population 0.15% 0.17% 0.18% 0.17% 0.18% 0.19%
Cumberland Linden Service Area Population 465 800 948 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250
11
% of County Population 0.31% 0.36% 0.35% 0.35% 0.33% 0.32%
Cumberland Godwin Service Area Population 203 238 248 258 268 278 288
% of County Population 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.07%
Cumberland Fort Bragg Service Area Population 65000 65000 65000 65000 65000 65000 65000
% of County Population 21.06% 20.50% 19.51% 18.75% 17.69% 16.89%
County Population 308609 317094 333174 346686 367530 384848

Durham Durham Service Area Population 140000 157600 181000 240530 276403 298974 314127 329280
% of County Population 78.15% 90.06% 89.26% 84.54% 79.30% 74.99%
County Population 231608 267086 309651 353630 396126 439104

Harnett Dunn Service Area Population 9200 9731 9931 10546 11200 11895 12632 13415
% of County Population 10.37% 9.37% 8.28% 7.49% 6.98% 6.59%
Harnett Angier Service Area Population 2265 3010 3505 4114 4810 5500 6432 7246
% of County Population 3.66% 3.66% 3.56% 3.46% 3.56% 3.56%
Harnett Coats Service Area Population 1958 1800 1832 2180 2594 3087 3674 4372
% of County Population 1.91% 1.94% 1.92% 1.94% 2.03% 2.15%
Harnett Lillington Service Area Population 2400 3003 2917 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500
% of County Population 3.05% 2.76% 2.37% 2.08% 1.88% 1.72%
Harnett Campbell University Service Area Population 4000 4400 4600 4800 5000 5000
% of County Population 4.18% 3.91% 3.40% 3.02% 2.76% 2.46%
Harnett Erwin Service Area Population 4400 4265 4537 5300 6000 6546 7183 7821
% of County Population 4.74% 4.71% 4.44% 4.12% 3.97% 3.84%
Harnett Harnett Co Service Area Population 26000 65000 77958 97791 122668 158875 193021 242126
% of County Population 81.43% 86.92% 90.70% 100.08% 106.70% 118.98%
County Population 95735 112513 135239 158751 180900 203494

Hoke Raeford Service Area Population 3910 3910 3517 4300 4800 5280 5579 5989
% of County Population 9.82% 9.13% 7.76% 6.74% 6.17% 5.74%
Hoke Hoke RWS Service Area Population 752 12700 24900 31900 40650 49400 58150 66900
% of County Population 69.54% 67.73% 65.68% 63.01% 64.31% 64.08%
County Population 35809 47096 61890 78396 90422 104395
12

Johnston Benson Service Area Population 2880 4000 2920 3030 3140 3250 3371 3488
% of County Population 2.25% 1.77% 1.39% 1.15% 1.03% 0.92%
County Population 130019 171548 225194 283401 328537 379389

Lee Sanford Service Area Population 17540 21608 34573 40900 56600 76000 92100 111600
% of County Population 68.15% 68.90% 80.73% 93.35% 101.75% 110.89%
Lee Broadway Service Area Population 1003 1070 1026 1184 1366 1559 1757 1967
% of County Population 2.02% 1.99% 1.95% 1.91% 1.94% 1.95%
Lee Carolina Trace WS Service Area Population 1199 1759 2000 2000 2000 2000
% of County Population 2.36% 2.96% 2.85% 2.46% 2.21% 1.99%
Lee Lee Co Water - Sewer District 1 Service Area Population 1935 1870 5240 11912 15044 18176 21308 24440
% of County Population 10.33% 20.07% 21.46% 22.32% 23.54% 24.28%
Lee Lee Co Cumnock Golden Poultry Service Area Population 37 145 150 1 1 1 1 1
% of County Population 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
County Population 50730 59358 70107 81418 90515 100640

Montgomery Star Service Area Population 862 830 820 850 875 900 950
% of County Population 3.02% 2.93% 2.91% 2.86% 2.76% 2.77%
County Population 27521 27941 29189 30544 32639 34299

Moore Southern Pines Service Area Population 11709 12175 13120 15221 17689 20140 22569 24990
% of County Population 16.84% 17.31% 17.54% 17.72% 17.64% 17.67%
Moore Robbins Service Area Population 1400 1950 1226 1728 2008 2286 2410 2615
% of County Population 1.57% 1.97% 1.99% 2.01% 1.88% 1.85%
Moore Aberdeen Service Area Population 3200 3648 3578 3935 4282 4624 5040 5642
% of County Population 4.59% 4.48% 4.24% 4.07% 3.94% 3.99%
Moore Carthage Service Area Population 1610 2175 2114 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200
% of County Population 2.71% 2.73% 2.58% 2.46% 2.35% 2.26%
Moore Taylortown Service Area Population 601 875 918 945 973 1002 1032
% of County Population 1.12% 1.04% 0.94% 0.86% 0.78% 0.73%
Moore Cameron Service Area Population 391 460 524 573 630 693 762
% of County Population 0.59% 0.60% 0.57% 0.55% 0.54% 0.54%
13
Moore Moore Co (Vass) Service Area Population 678 736 759 796 842 888 934 980
% of County Population 0.97% 0.91% 0.83% 0.78% 0.73% 0.69%
Moore Moore Co (Hyland Hills) Service Area Population 140 267 276 290 308 326 344 362
% of County Population 0.35% 0.33% 0.31% 0.29% 0.27% 0.26%
Moore Moore Co (Pinehurst) Service Area Population 5785 7746 11013 16239 22773 29306 35839 42373
% of County Population 14.13% 18.47% 22.58% 25.79% 28.01% 29.96%
Moore Moore Co (Seven Lakes) Service Area Population 2150 2685 3567 4096 5860 7624 9388 11152
% of County Population 4.58% 4.66% 5.81% 6.71% 7.34% 7.88%
Moore Moore Co (The Carolina) Service Area Population 0 14 24 36 48 60 71
% of County Population 0.02% 0.03% 0.04% 0.04% 0.05% 0.05%
Moore Moore Co (Addor) Service Area Population 0 64 69 74 79 83 88
% of County Population 0.08% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07% 0.06% 0.06%
Moore Moore Co (Robbins) Service Area Population 69 69 69 69 69 69
% of County Population 0.09% 0.08% 0.07% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05%
County Population 77922 87915 100874 113650 127932 141454

Orange Orange WASA Service Area Population 57900 65000 73700 87400 97200 110000 122900 135700
% of County Population 61.47% 66.31% 66.98% 70.08% 69.92% 70.93%
Orange Orange-Alamance Service Area Population 11000 11500 9074 8742 9742 10742 11742 12742
% of County Population 7.57% 6.63% 6.71% 6.84% 6.68% 6.66%
County Population 119905 131797 145119 156958 175778 191311

Wake Cary Service Area Population 52403 82700 102965 134000 173000 216000 236000 236000
% of County Population 15.41% 14.56% 14.06% 13.85% 13.03% 11.25%
Wake Apex Service Area Population 5200 12000 26100 48800 74600 100400 102172 102172
% of County Population 3.91% 5.30% 6.06% 6.44% 5.64% 4.87%
Wake Holly Springs Service Area Population 1784 5492 11580 37275 71400 103900 122220 125000
% of County Population 1.73% 4.05% 5.80% 6.66% 6.75% 5.96%
Wake Fuquay-Varina Service Area Population 4300 6249 10335 14510 25188 43724 75898 131750
% of County Population 1.55% 1.58% 2.05% 2.80% 4.19% 6.28%
Wake Morrisville Service Area Population 1751 2200 10028 17750 23900 27000 27000 27000
% of County Population 1.50% 1.93% 1.94% 1.73% 1.49% 1.29%
County Population 668153 920298 1230382 1560026 1810843 2098690
14

Brunswick Southport Service Area Population 3660 5124 5124
% of County Population 6.61% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Brunswick Long Beach Water Service Area Population 3280 4789 5419 6797 8526 10392 12186 13981
% of County Population 6.99% 6.11% 5.83% 5.79% 5.78% 5.73%
Brunswick Oak Island Service Area Population 785 891 13700 14700 15700 16700 17700 18700
% of County Population 17.66% 13.22% 10.74% 9.31% 8.39% 7.66%
Brunswick Shallotte Service Area Population 1078 1242 1617 2005 2606 3387 4448 5782
% of County Population 2.08% 1.80% 1.78% 1.89% 2.11% 2.37%
Brunswick Ocean Isle Beach Service Area Population 13879 689 426 503 600 721 819 924
% of County Population 0.55% 0.45% 0.41% 0.40% 0.39% 0.38%
Brunswick Brunswick Co. Service Area Population 45748 61959 30175 88792 103047 119590 138790 161071
% of County Population 38.90% 79.88% 70.47% 66.65% 65.80% 66.02%
Brunswick Sunset Beach Service Area Population 591 1908 1946 2024 2105 2189 2277 2368
% of County Population 2.51% 1.82% 1.44% 1.22% 1.08% 0.97%
Brunswick Caswell Beach Service Area Population 500 220 392 436 510 592 692 804
% of County Population 0.51% 0.39% 0.35% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33%
Brunswick Holden Beach Service Area Population 10000 910 815 1200 1700 2000 2482.167 2912.133
% of County Population 1.05% 1.08% 1.16% 1.11% 1.18% 1.19%
Brunswick Navassa Service Area Population 439 520 525 590 685 762 844 926
% of County Population 0.68% 0.53% 0.47% 0.42% 0.40% 0.38%
Brunswick N. Brunswick SD Service Area Population 3464 3484 4600 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000
% of County Population 5.93% 4.50% 3.76% 3.34% 3.08% 2.87%
Brunswick Carolina Shores SD Service Area Population 0 4089 5698 5983 6581 6910
% of County Population 0.00% 3.68% 3.90% 3.33% 3.12% 2.83%
Brunswick Boiling Spring Lakes Service Area Population 695 855 1055 1255 1455 1655
% of County Population 0.90% 0.77% 0.72% 0.70% 0.69% 0.68%
Brunswick Northwest Service Area Population 695 855 1055 1255 1455 1655
% of County Population 0.90% 0.77% 0.72% 0.70% 0.69% 0.68%
County Population 77572 111155 146227 179424 210917 243984

Columbus Riegelwood SD Service Area Population 320 323 350 400 425 471 513 554
% of County Population 0.63% 0.74% 0.80% 0.90% 0.95% 1.02%
15
County Population 55781 54225 53370 52281 54203 54561

New Hanover Wilmington Service Area Population 57213 66686 101600 120600 134000 147400 160800 174100
% of County Population 60.36% 59.58% 55.27% 52.46% 49.87% 47.99%
New Hanover Carolina Beach Service Area Population 4271 4643 4800 5500 6200 6900 7700 8700
% of County Population 2.85% 2.72% 2.56% 2.46% 2.39% 2.40%
New Hanover Wrightsville Beach Service Area Population 2935 3146 2832 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
% of County Population 1.68% 1.48% 1.24% 1.07% 0.93% 0.83%
New Hanover Kure Beach Service Area Population 6190 1251 1629 2000 2100 2200 2300 2300
% of County Population 0.97% 0.99% 0.87% 0.78% 0.71% 0.63%
New Hanover Figure Eight Island Service Area Population 732 825 976 1098 1220 1426 1602 1779
% of County Population 0.58% 0.54% 0.50% 0.51% 0.50% 0.49%
New Hanover Kings Grant Service Area Population 3408 3608 3608 3608 3608 3608
% of County Population 2.02% 1.78% 1.49% 1.28% 1.12% 0.99%
New Hanover Monterey Heights Water Supply Service Area Population 1095 817 980 1157 1321 1500 1675
% of County Population 0.49% 0.48% 0.48% 0.47% 0.47% 0.46%
New Hanover New Hanover Co 421 Water System Service Area Population 108 187 107 114 121 128 135 142
% of County Population 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.04% 0.04%
New Hanover New Hanover Co Water System Service Area Population 7671 14008 16310 19206 21931 24900 27805
% of County Population 8.32% 8.06% 7.92% 7.81% 7.72% 7.67%
County Population 168336 202411 242460 280977 322414 362748
Source: Office of State Budget and Management and Local Water Supply Plan, NC DENR, DWR.
16
2. Basin Specific Issues
a. FERC – Hydropower

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is responsible for regulating
the production and interstate transmission of power in the United States, including
hydroelectric power produced with dams. The FERC regulates hydroelectric
projects by the terms and conditions contained within a license issued by the FERC to the hydropower producer.

Pursuant to Section 23(b)(1) of the Federal Power Act, 16 U.S.C. 817(1), a non-
federal hydroelectric project must (unless it has a still-valid pre-1920 federal
permit) be licensed if it: (1) is located on a navigable water of the United States; (2)
occupies lands of the United States; (3) utilizes surplus water or water power
from a government dam; or (4) is located on a body of water over which
Congress has Commerce Clause jurisdiction, project construction occurred on or after August 26, 1935, and the project affects the interests of interstate or foreign
commerce. A license is issued for a period between 30 and 50 years.
Those projects that do no meet these requirements are not subject to FERC
authority. The non-jurisdictional projects in North Carolina are regulated by the
North Carolina Utilities Commission.
Among the terms and conditions included in the project license are requirements
to maintain flows below the project to support aquatic habitat, water quality,
recreation, and municipal and industrial needs, based on consultation with
federal and state agencies. These flow requirements may also be included in a
Section 401 certification issued by the applicable state water agency under the
authority of the federal Clean Water Act. Flow requirements for non-jurisdictional
projects in North Carolina may be included in the Section 401 certification or in
the Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCN) issued by the Utilities Commission, if the CPCN was issued prior to August, 2007.

Flow requirements may be specific amounts, in cubic feet per second (cfs),
based on historical flow statistics or a field study. Other projects may not have a
specific amount but are required to operate in a mode known as run-of-river,
where inflow into the project equals outflow from the project. A run-of-river
requirement is typically requested for projects with little storage capacity and no
bypassed reach. A bypassed reach is a section of natural stream channel below the project dam that has reduced flows because water is diverted by a man-
made canal or pipe to the powerhouse. The water eventually returns to the
natural channel farther downstream below the powerhouse.

17
Figure 2: Hydropower Projects in the Cape Fear River Basin, NC

18
Table 5: Hydropower Projects in the Cape Fear Basin, North Carolina

PROJECT

FERC PROJ #

STR
EAM

DRAI
NAGE
AREA
(mi2)

LICENSE / CPCN
FLOW
REQUIREMENT
(ft3 sec-1)

Worthville

P-3156

Deep
R.

236.0
0

Run-of-river
(inflow = outflow)

Cox Lake

P-6559

Deep
R.

254.0
0

42.0

Cedar Falls

P-7783

Deep
R.

266.0
0

32.0

Randolph
Mills #1

non-
jurisdictional

Deep
R.

277.0
0

46.0

Ramseur

P-11392

Deep
R.

349.0
0

45.0

Coleridge

P-7478

Deep
R.

401.0
0

35.0

High Falls

P-7987

Deep
R.

792.0
0

108.0

Lockville

P-6276

Deep
R.

1436.
00

70.0

Altamahaw

non-
jurisdictional

Haw
R.

188.0
0

Run-of-river
(inflow = outflow)

Glencoe Mill

P-7404

Haw
R.

481.0
0

57.0

Saxapahaw

P-4509

Haw
R.

1016.
00

10, or .25 x inflow,
whichever is less

Bynum

P-4093

Haw
R.

1265.
00

80.0

Jordan

P-11437

Haw
R.

1690.
00

40.0 below dam but
600 at Lillington,
NC

Raeford

P-6619

Rock
fish
C.

179.0
0

Run-of-river
(inflow = outflow)

Rocky River

P-3586

Rock
y R.

95.00

Run-of-river
(inflow = outflow)
19
b. The Use of Water Supply on Jordan Lake

The State of North Carolina has been assigned the use of the entire water supply
storage in Jordan Lake and, under G.S. 143-354(a)(11), can assign this storage
to local governments that has a need for water supply storage. The North
Carolina Administrative Code (15A NCAC 2G.0500) describes the specific procedures to be used in allocating the Jordan Lake water supply storage.

Allocations fall into two categories. Level I allocations are made based on 20-
year water need projections and when withdrawals are planned to begin within
five years of receiving the allocation. Level II allocations are made based on longer term needs of up to 30 years.

Initial allocations of water supply from Jordan Lake were made in 1988. At that
time, 42 percent of the water supply pool was allocated. There have been two
subsequent rounds of allocation and currently 63 percent of the water supply pool is allocated. Note that allocations are actually a percentage of the water
supply pool and not a rate of withdrawal. However, for convenience allocations
are frequently expressed in MGD, since 100 percent of water supply storage has
an estimated safe yield of 100 MGD.
Existing rules limit water supply allocations that will result in diversions out of the
Lake's watershed to 50 percent of the 100 MGD total water supply yield. The
EMC may review and revise this limit based on experience in managing the Lake
and on the effects of changes in the Lake's watershed that affect its yield.
Currently, 40 MGD of the 100 MGD yield is approved to be diverted out of the Lake's watershed.

Table 6: Current Allocations
Holder Level I Level II Total
Towns of Cary and Apex 32 0 32
Chatham County 6 0 6
City of Durham 10 0 10
Town of Holly Springs 0 2 2
Town of Morrisville 3.5 0 3.5
Orange County 0 1 1
Orange Water & Sewer
Authority
0 5 5
Wake County - RTP South 3.5 0 3.5
Total 55 mgd 8 mgd 63 mgd

For further and better comprehension on Jordan Lake Water Supply Allocation,
(North Carolina Administrative Code Section T15A:02G.0500 Allocation of Jordan Lake Water Supply Storage), please visit NCDENR/DWR homepage.
20
3. Instream Flow Needs

Types of Instream Uses:
Aquatic Habitat – Stream flows affect physical habitat conditions such as depth,
current velocity, and access to cover, feeding, and spawning areas. Adequate
flows are needed to provide the necessary physical conditions for the propagation and survival of aquatic organisms - including fish, mussels, and
aquatic insects.

Water Quality – Stream flows are an important factor in a stream’s ability to
maintain adequate levels of dissolved oxygen. Assimilation of oxygen demanding products from wastewater discharges or non-point source runoff is
directly related to the amount of flow, as is the ability of the stream to reaerate.
Other water quality parameters such as temperature, salinity, and algal growth
are also influenced by stream flows.
Recreation – Depending on the nature of the stream, the amount of stream flow
can play a greater or lesser role in the use of the waterway for recreation. High
gradient streams with boulders, ledges and other similar channel features may
be used for whitewater paddlesports, and this recreational use tends to be flow-
dependent. Streams that are low gradient are more placid and deep, with a smooth water surface. Recreational use of this type of stream is often less
sensitive to changes in flow.

Channel Morphology – The shape and condition of the stream channel and
banks can be greatly influenced by flow patterns over time. High flow events may change channel alignment, alter sand or gravel bars, erode banks, and
affect bank vegetation. These effects may be perceived as negative, but high
flows are also useful for preventing degradation of the channel by flushing
accumulated sediments. In general, the frequency, magnitude, duration, and
timing of both low and high flow events affect channel morphology. The stability of a stream channel and its banks is related to the extent to which historic,
natural hydrology has been modified.

Wetlands – Some streams, particularly in the eastern piedmont and coastal plain
areas, have immediately adjacent wetlands, or braided channels with wetland areas. The ability of these areas to function as wetlands is influenced by flows
that maintain adequate surface and subsurface water levels, so that soils and
vegetation retain their wetland character. Wetland areas can play a role in
groundwater recharge and maintaining base flow in surface waters.
21
Aesthetics – The aesthetic appeal of a stream is affected by the amount of
exposed streambed, the sound and appearance of moving water, the presence
or absence of algae, and the clarity and depth of the water. These factors are all
related to the amount of flow. Prolonged periods of low flow, in particular, may
have undesirable aesthetic impacts.

Types of Offstream Uses:
Consumptive Use: Permanent removal of water by a withdrawal (i.e. water that is not discharged back to the source stream) is referred to as a consumptive use.
Often an offstream user will return a portion, but not all, of the withdrawal as
treated wastewater. The unreturned portion is considered a consumptive use.
The amount of water withdrawn most significantly affects the stream reach
between the point of withdrawal and the point of return discharge. The amount of the withdrawal that is a consumptive loss continues to affect the stream beyond
the point of the return, until enough additional drainage area and tributary inflow
is gained to reduce the effect of lost water.
Public Water Supply – Local water systems operated by government or private entities withdraw water from streams for use by residential, business and
industrial customers. If customers are not also served by a wastewater collection
system, but instead use an individual non-discharge wastewater disposal system
such as a septic tank and absorption drain field, then that portion of the water
use is considered a consumptive loss. Water that is ultimately discharged as wastewater in another watershed is also considered a consumptive loss for the
source watershed. Water used for outdoor purposes such as lawn watering and
car washing is a consumptive use. Water systems may also have some
percentage of the total withdrawal that is unaccounted for. This unaccounted amount may be due to leakage in water lines, un-metered connections, use for fire protection and line flushing, or use at the water treatment plant for filter back-
washing. Unaccounted for water is also tallied as a consumptive loss, although
some unknown quantity of this water may actually be returned to the source
stream. The total percentage consumptive use can be determined by comparing the measured withdrawal to the measured wastewater discharge. A list of local
water systems and their individual water supply plans can be found at
http://www.ncwater.org/Water_Supply_Planning/Local_Water_Supply_Plan/
22
Industrial Water Supply – Some private industries have their own withdrawals from surface waters separate from public water supply systems, and may also
have separate wastewater treatment systems. The concepts for determining the
amount of consumptive use are the same as for a public water supply system.
One noteworthy type of consumptive use for some industrial users is water used
for evaporative cooling. Another type of industrial use that is usually consumptive is for quarry operations that use water for dust control or gravel
washing. A list of registered industrial and mining water withdrawals can be
found at
http://www.ncwater.org/Permits_and_Registration/Water_Withdrawal_Registratio
n/
Agricultural Water Use – Some agricultural operations use surface water
withdrawals for irrigation, livestock watering, or cooling of buildings where
animals are raised. Horticultural nursery operations may also use surface water
for irrigation. Typically these types of agricultural water use are 100% consumptive. A list of registered withdrawals for agricultural, livestock, and non-
agricultural irrigation use can be found at
http://www.ncwater.org/Permits_and_Registration/Water_Withdrawal_Registratio
n/
Offstream Recreational Water Use – Some popular outdoor recreational
pursuits in North Carolina rely on water withdrawals to support their recreational
infrastructure. In particular, irrigation of golf courses and water use for snow
making at ski resorts may use surface water withdrawals for these purposes.
Because these uses require outdoor application of water to land, they are consumptive, although occasionally catchment basins are used to recycle water
from runoff and reduce the withdrawal from the original source stream. A list of
registered withdrawals for golf course irrigation and snow making use can be
found at http://www.ncwater.org/Permits_and_Registration/Water_Withdrawal_Registration/

Electric Power Generation – The production of electric power may involve
instream use, temporary withdrawal, or consumptive use – depending on the type of generation and the configuration of the power plant. A hydroelectric facility where the turbines are located in a powerhouse at the base of the dam
does not divert water from the stream to produce power. On the other hand,
some hydroelectric facilities divert water through pipes, tunnels or artificial
channels that create a bypassed reach between the point of withdrawal and where the water is discharged back into the natural channel. Bypassed reaches at different facilities vary in length from a few hundred feet to several miles.
Instream flow needs in a bypassed reach are dependent on the provision of
required flows that are not diverted for power production. Fossil fuel and nuclear
power plants use water for cooling and steam production. Surface water withdrawals for these purposes include a portion that is a consumptive use, but
23
the amount varies with the type of system. Once-through cooling systems temporarily remove a larger amount of water but return most of it to the stream.
Cooling systems that recapture and re-circulate withdraw less water overall, but a
much larger portion is lost consumptively.

Instream Flow Needs are a Function of:
Location - A quantified instream flow need is particular to a given location, since
instream uses and hydrology are influenced by drainage area, tributary inflow,
habitat type, the assemblage of aquatic organisms, and other instream uses that
might be relevant.
Timing - Another important variable in determining instream flow needs is time.
Recreational activities often have a seasonal component, or vary between
weekdays and weekends, and even time of day. Critical periods for certain life
stages of aquatic organisms occur during specific months or seasons. The life cycles of aquatic organisms are adapted to variations in flow that occur during a
year and instream flow needs often vary accordingly. In North Carolina, stream
flows are usually highest in the spring (March in particular), and lowest in the late
summer and early fall (September and October). Finally, aquatic ecosystems are
also adapted to variations from year to year. Dry years may benefit certain species, while wet years benefit others. Inter-annual variability may be needed
to retain the overall system and diversity of habitat and species.

Measurement – Stream flows are typically measured in cubic feet per second
(cfs), calculated by multiplying the depth (feet) and width (feet) of a stream cross section times the speed of the current (feet per second). Offstream demands are
often measured in million gallons per day (mgd). The conversion between these
units is: mgd x 1.546 = cfs.

Methods for Quantifying Instream Flow Needs

Water Quality Flow Needs – Water quality models can be used to evaluate the
effect of a given amount and concentration of effluent on downstream water quality. This approach does not determine a water quality flow need, but instead uses a minimum drought flow statistic to determine the amount and degree of
treatment of the wastewater discharge needed to maintain state water quality
standards. The drought flow statistic used is the lowest flow that occurs for
seven consecutive days, with a recurrence probability of once every ten years – referred to as the 7Q10. The assumption is that water quality standards may not be maintained when flows fall below the 7Q10, but this is a very infrequent,
acceptable risk. Therefore, it is very important to realize that the 7Q10 is NOT
intended to be the flow that maintains water quality for any great length of time.
This modeling approach requires additional data and a higher degree of complexity if non-point sources of oxygen demanding products from runoff are
24
also to be considered. Wastewater discharges located downstream of large reservoirs that alter downstream hydrology use the required release from the
reservoir (rather than the 7Q10) to model water quality and determine effluent
treatment needs.
Recreational Flow Needs – The amount of instream flow needed for recreation depends on the activity and may be seasonal, or vary between weekends and
weekdays. One approach uses field measurements to determine flows that
provide adequate depths for the reach in question to be navigable for a given
type of watercraft. Another approach employs user surveys after recreational
activity has taken place at multiple stream flows to determine minimally acceptable flows and optimal flows, based on the quality of the recreational
experience.

Aquatic Habitat Flow Needs
What follows is an overview of approaches that have been used in North Carolina to recommend instream flows for aquatic habitat. A more
comprehensive discussion of various methods can be found in: Annear, T., I.
Chisholm, H. Beecher, A. Locke, and 12 other authors. 2004. Instream flows for
riverine resource stewardship, revised edition. Instream Flow Council,
Cheyenne, WY.
Desktop Approaches

Tennant, or Montana, Method: The Tennant Method was developed in the
1970’s by taking photos of multiple streams at a range of known flows, and surveying aquatic biologists for their evaluation of habitat quality at each flow. It
uses a percentage of the average yearly flow as an indicator of how well the
instream habitat is maintained. Ten percent of the average annual flow is
considered a short-term survival flow that provides poor or minimum habitat, while twenty percent is considered a flow for good habitat. Forty percent of the average annual flow is recommended for spring and early summer months to
support good habitat for spawning activity.

New England Method: A standard setting approach that uses the lowest median monthly flow as the flow required to maintain aquatic habitat. The median monthly flow is determined by calculating the flow for each month for
which half of the daily flows are lower and half are higher – based on stream
gauging records. In North Carolina, September is usually the lowest flow month,
so the September median value would be used as the aquatic habitat flow following the New England Method approach.
NC Dam Safety Law Rules: In the early 1990’s, Division of Water Resources’
staff developed a new desktop approach based on a dataset of field study
evaluations available up to that point in time. Regression analyses were performed on a database of 33 wetted perimeter studies (see description of this
25
technique below) in the piedmont region. This resulted in two regression formulas that could be used to predict the results of a wetted perimeter study in
the piedmont. One formula was for use on ungauged streams, and the other
required at least 20 years of daily flow records from a U.S. Geological Survey
gauge. Lack of data prevented regression analyses for the mountain or coastal
plain regions. This desktop method was incorporated in rules subject to the NC Dam Safety Law that require flows to maintain aquatic habitat in dam safety
permits (15A NCAC 2K.0501-.0504).

Field Study Approaches
Wetted Perimeter Study: A wetted perimeter study is somewhat simplistic, in
that it assumes any area of wetted stream channel has the same habitat value,
regardless of habitat characteristics such as depth, bottom substrate or current
velocity. Field data are collected at multiple stream cross-sections selected to
represent the range of habitat types available. Data collection involves measurements at three significantly different flows, to determine the relationship
between flow and the amount of the channel that is submerged at each cross-
section. The flow recommended by the wetted perimeter approach is the point of
inflection – the point at which additional flow results in much smaller incremental
increases in the amount of submerged channel. Flows below the point of inflection would result in incremental dewatering of the stream bottom.

The plots below show an example of instream flow study cross-section, or
“transect,” and the output from a wetted perimeter study.
Figure 3: Rocky River, Cross-Section Profile
ROCKY RIVER, TRANSECT #9
CROSS-SECTION PROFILE
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Distance (ft)
El
e
v
a
t
i
o
n

(
f
t)

26

Figure 4: Rocky River, Wetted Perimeter vs. Water Elevation
ROCKY RIVER, TRANSECT #9
WETTED PERIMETER vs. WATER ELEVATION
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
94 94.5 95 95.5 96 96.5 97 97.5 98 98.5 99
Elevation (ft)
We
t
t
e
d

P
e
r
i
m
e
t
e
r

(
f
t
)
Point of Inflection

Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM): This approach entails more
complex data collection and modeling than a wetted perimeter study.
Representative stream cross-sections are selected (as with wetted perimeter
studies), but IFIM evaluates habitat amounts according to quality of habitat – incorporating information about depths, current velocities, bottom substrate, and
cover for aquatic organisms. IFIM has other advantages over wetted perimeter
studies. Modeling can target species or types of species that are of particular
concern. The model output is a relationship of the amount of aquatic habitat
(weighted by quality) to stream flow. This allows comparison of different flow alternatives by using a technique called time series analysis, which entails
converting a record of stream flows over time into a record of habitat values over
time for each species or group of organisms. Statistical analysis can then be
used to compare the time series of habitat values produced by different flow
options – including the no-project, “natural,” unimpaired flow record. IFIM, including time series analysis, is well-suited to take advantage of basinwide
hydrologic model outputs, by comparing the unimpaired flow record to flows that
incorporate existing or projected future water withdrawals, wastewater returns,
and operation of upstream reservoirs.
27
An example of habitat versus flow relationships determined using IFIM is shown in the first plot below. The second plot shows an example of a habitat duration
analyses comparison from a time series analysis.

Figure 5: Rocky River, Redbreast Sunfish Habit vs. Discharge
ROCKY RIVER - REDBREAST SUNFISH HABITAT vs. DISCHARGE
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Discharge (cfs)
We
i
g
h
t
e
d

U
s
a
b
l
e

A
r
e
a

(
s
q
.
f
t
.

p
e
r

1
0
0
0
Adult Juvenile Fry Spawning

28
Figure 6: Catawba River, Habit Duration Comparison for Minimum Release
Catawba River Site 1, Fantail Darter - MayHabitat Duration Comparison for Different Minimum Release Options
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
% of Time Amount of Habitat Equalled or Exceeded
To
t
a
l

W
e
i
g
h
t
e
d

U
s
a
b
l
e

A
r
e
a

(
s
q

f
t
)

50 cfs 280 cfs 600 cfs natural conditions

Components of a Flow Regime Recommendation:

Magnitude - the amount of stream flow moving through a geographic location at
a particular time - usually measured as a volume per unit of time (for example,
cubic feet per second or million gallons per day). Timing - the occurrence of flows of a given magnitude within the annual hydrologic cycle.
Frequency - the probability that flows of a certain amount will occur.
Duration - the period of time associated with a specific flow condition.
Rate of change - how quickly flows change from one magnitude to another.

29
DRAFT CFRB – WSP Jan 2009
4. Drought
o Drought Definition and Classification:
According to Wikipedia, a drought is an extended period of months or years when a
region notes a deficiency in its water supply. Generally, this occurs when a region receives consistently below average precipitation. This is a normal, recurrent feature
of climate. It occurs almost everywhere, although its features vary from region to
region. Defining drought is therefore difficult; it depends on differences in regions,
needs, and disciplinary perspectives1. There are two main drought types from
conceptual and operational perspectives. Disciplinary perspective of drought includes meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and socioeconomic types.

No single definition of drought works for all circumstances, so people rely on drought
indices to detect and measure droughts. But no single index works under all
circumstances, either. That's why we need the Drought Monitor, a synthesis of multiple indices and impacts that represents a consensus of federal and academic
scientists. Drought conditions are assessed every week by United States Drought
Monitor2 in collaboration with several federal, state and academic partners in the
United States. More information on drought indices is available on the drought
monitor webpage3. With the synthetic multiple indices, the areas are then categorized as five drought classifications. The Drought Monitor summary map
identifies general drought areas, labeling droughts by intensity, with D1 being the
least intense and D4 being the most intense. D0, drought watch areas, are drying
out and possibly heading for drought, or are recovering from drought but not yet
back to normal, suffering long-term impacts such as low reservoir levels. Drought category or classification information is available on the web page4. The general
information on drought definitions, category and assessment are available on
national DM page5.

The sequence of drought impact with time duration is best described in the chart below from USDM website:

1 http://drought.unl.edu/whatis/what.htm2 http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html3 http://drought.unl.edu/whatis/indices.htm4 http://drought.unl.edu/dm/archive/99/classify.htm5 http://drought.unl.edu/dm/index.html
30
DRAFT CFRB – WSP Jan 2009
Figure 7: Sequence of Drought Impacts

The formation of the North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council (NCDMAC), and their responsibilities and activities will be discussed in Drought
Management section in the following chapter of this plan.
o Historical Drought Assessment:
Drought conditions prevailed across much of North Carolina for consecutive years
during the past decade. The widespread record low streamflow, groundwater levels, emergency water conservation measure taken by the public water supply systems,
and low reservoir storages with major change in reservoir operations indicated that
the severe droughts hit the state and prevailed once from 1998 to 2002 (USGS
Report 20056), and then second time in 2007 and continued throughout 20087.
2007-2008 drought is believed to be the worst drought in recent years8’9. The Cape Fear River basin was no exception; it experienced the severe drought condition for
major part of the basin10. More information on drought responses taken by the state,

6 http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5053/pdf/SIR2005-5053.pdf7 http://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/dmhistory/?chartType=dmmap&enddate=2007-12-
11&type=Basin&startdate=2002-08-13&method=awa8 http://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/dmhistory/?chartType=dmpcnt
9 http://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/dmhistory/?chartType=dmlevel10 http://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/dmhistory/?chartType=dmlevel&type=Basin&id=Cape%20Fear
31
DRAFT CFRB – WSP Jan 2009
local governments and drought press releases released from Governor’s office etc. will be discussed in Drought Management section in the following chapter of this
plan.

The statistics of historical streamflows at some of the USGS gage stations show how
severely the drought hit the area in 2007. Haw River near Bynum flow was ranked 1st and 2nd in the dry category for the period of record flows in climatic years 2007-
2008 and 2001-2002 respectively. These statistics can be found by clicking on
NCDWR’s WRISARS database. Reedy Fork near Gibsonville gage flow was ranked
2nd in the dry category for the period of record flows in climatic year 2007-2008 and
3rd in 2001-2002. These statistics can be found by clicking on NCDWR’s WRISARS database.

The streamflows in time series and annual plots at some of the USGS gage stations
shown in the following few plots also indicate the severity of drought in dry seasons
of 2007 and 2008. In annual plots, the yellow band is zero to 10th percentile flows for the period of record flows which represents very dry conditions. The year 2007-2008
flows plotted in black line fall in or just above that band for some part of this drought
season. Later half of 2008 flows are towards normal to wet percentiles, indicating
beginning of drought relief in terms of streamflows. Other drought indicators also
recovered from drought and currently Cape Fear River basin is out of overall droughts as shown in the current drought page.

Figure 8: Ftreamflow in time series at Black River near Tomahawk

32
DRAFT CFRB – WSP Jan 2009
Figure 9: Annual Streamflow at Black River near Tomahawk

Figure 10: Streamflow in time series at Reedy Fork near Oak Ridge

33
DRAFT CFRB – WSP Jan 2009
Figure 11: Annual Streamflow at Reedy Fork near Oak Ridge

Figure 12: Streamflow in time series at Buckhorn Creek near Corinth

34
DRAFT CFRB – WSP Jan 2009

Figure 13: Annual Streamflow at Buckhorn Creek near Corinth

The severity of the droughts in 2002 and 2007 can be portrayed in the following
few maps that show the progression of droughts in time in Cape Fear River basin and in North Carolina. The overall North Carolina drought conditions got
worse in mid December 2007 when 78 counties out of 100 counties in North
Carolina were hit by the highest drought category; maps are available on the
NCDrought maps page. These two historical drought conditions are presented in
the following few maps. The legends for the maps are provided 1st in the following figure:

Figure 14: Legends used for USDM Maps

35
DRAFT CFRB – WSP Jan 2009
Figure 15: Cape Fear River Basin Drought Coverage on 08-13-2002

Figure 16: Cape Fear River Basin Drought Coverage on 10-23-2007

36
DRAFT CFRB – WSP Jan 2009
Figure 17: Cape Fear River Basin Drought Coverage on 12-11-2007

37
DRAFT CFRB – WSP Jan 2009
Figure 18: NC Drought Coverage on 08-20-2002: 46 Counties in D4 Category

Figure 19: NC Drought Coverage on 10-23-2007: 72 Counties in D4 Category

38
DRAFT CFRB – WSP Jan 2009
Figure 20: NC Drought Coverage on 12-25-2007: 78 Counties in D4 Category

39

5. Ground Water

Hydrogeologic Setting of the Cape Fear River Basin
To the east of the fall line (the boundary between the Piedmont and Coastal
Plain), the geology of the Cape Fear River Basin may be characterized as a
gently southeastward dipping, and southeastward thickening wedge of sediments
and sedimentary rock ranging in age from Recent through Cretaceous which
rests on an underlying basement complex of Paleozoic and earlier aged rocks. The basement surface ranges in elevation between 200 feet above sea level and
1,515 feet below sea level within the coastal plain, and dips southeast at a rate of
40 feet per mile in the northwestern part of the area to 72 feet per mile in the
southeast. The sediment wedge is comprised of layers and lenses of sand, clay, silt, limestone, gravel, shell material and combinations thereof which range in total thickness from zero at the fall line to in excess of 1,515 feet in the southern
tip of New Hanover County and southeastern-most part of Brunswick County. In
a successive manner, older stratigraphic units outcrop immediately west of the
up dip limit of the next younger unit. Deposition occurred in cyclic fashion during alternating transgressions and regressions of the Atlantic Ocean, in marine to non-marine environments.

The sedimentary column of the lower Cape Fear River Basin is subdivided into
geologic formations and formation members based upon position of layers in the sequence of sediments, lithology, and faunal (fossil) composition. The subdivision of these deposits into aquifers and confining units is based on the
delineation of non-permeable versus hydraulically connected permeable units,
the boundaries of which sometimes, and sometimes do not, correspond to
geologic formation boundaries. Aquifers and confining units are commonly made up of more than one formation, or may include only part of a formation or parts of several formations due to the discontinuous distribution of strata in the lower
Cape Fear River Basin.

To the west of the fall line, the upper Cape Fear River Basin is primarily composed of rocks of the Carolina Slate Belt. The Late Proterozoic-Cambrian aged Carolina Slate Belt rocks are interbedded, metavolcanic tuffs, breccias,
argillites and flows trending northeastward. This basement rock is intruded by
Jurassic aged north to northwest trending diabase dikes and numerous
Proterozoic to Paleozoic aged plutons (igneous intrusive rocks). Fault bounded, northeast trending, Triassic aged mudstone, sandstone, conglomerate, and minor coal occur near the boundary between the Piedmont and Coastal Plain just
west of the fall line. Jurassic aged diabase dikes also intrude these rocks of the
Triassic Basins.
The hydrogeologic system in the lower Cape Fear River Basin, from basement to land surface, consists of six regionally significant aquifers and the intervening
40

confining units that separate them. They are mentioned from youngest to oldest as follows:

The surficial, or water table aquifer, which is made up primarily of Quaternary
age sediments. It also includes parts of older formations depending on the
varying age of underlying sediments and the varying stratigraphic position of the uppermost confining layer.

The Castle Hayne aquifer is comprised primarily of the Eocene age Castle Hayne
Formation. The confining unit occurs in the Quaternary age units that overly the
aquifer.
The Peedee aquifer, which is made up of the Peedee Formation. In the
southeastern corner of the study area, the aquifer includes all, or part of, the
Paleocene age Beaufort Formation. The confining unit is generally present in the
Beaufort Formation or upper part of the Peedee Formation.
The Black Creek aquifer, which corresponds primarily to the Black Creek
Formation. In some areas the aquifer includes the upper part of the Cape Fear
Formation and the lower part of the Cretaceous Peedee Formation. The
confining unit is made up of clay or silt beds in the upper part of the Black Creek or lower part of the Peedee Formations. To the northwest of the pinchout of the
Peedee Formation, the confining unit of the Black Creek aquifer may include
Pliocene age Yorktown or younger age deposits which directly overly the Black
Creek Formation. In this area, the Black Creek aquifer can include permeable
beds in the lower part of these younger formations.
The Upper Cape Fear aquifer, which corresponds to the upper part of the Cape
Fear Formation and sometimes the lower part of the Cretaceous Black Creek
Formation. The confining unit is composed of clay or silt beds present in the lower part of the Black Creek or upper part of the Cape Fear Formation.
The Lower Cape Fear aquifer, which is comprised along with its confining unit, of
the lower part of the Cape Fear Formation of Cretaceous age.
Piedmont aquifers are categorized as either fractured basement rock, overlying regolith (saprolite or weathered basement rock, soil and alluvium or recent
sedimentary deposits), or Triassic Basin.

General Description of the Ground Water System Representative hydrogeologic cross sections through the Cape Fear River Basin
are shown in figures 21 and 22, exhibiting the complexity of ground water flow
patterns and salt water interfaces in relation to hydrogeologic units. Ground
water flows in a rather complex three dimensional pattern through the subsurface in a multilayered Coastal Plain environment. Flow occurs laterally through
41

42
aquifers from recharge to discharge areas along flow lines which parallel directions of steepest hydraulic gradient. Flow also occurs vertically upward to
discharge areas or downward in recharge areas in response to differences in
hydraulic head between aquifers.

All of the aquifers in the coastal plain contain salt water over regions of varying extent, due to fluctuations of sea level that occurred during deposition of coastal
plain sediments. The surficial aquifer contains salt water on the barrier islands
along the coast of New Hanover and Pender Counties, as well as along the
fringes of the coastline, and other areas where high tides cause natural intrusion
of salt water. As recognized by Winner and Coble (1989), the position of fresh water-salt water interfaces within North Carolina Coastal Plain aquifers has a
very complex pattern. Sediments were deposited during cyclic fluctuations of
sea level over geologic time. The seaward limit of fresh water is unique for each
aquifer as governed by variations in hydraulic properties, position and rates of
recharge, thickness and hydraulic conductivity of overlying confining beds, and hydraulic gradients. Salt water interfaces are not sharply defined, but occur as
transition zones of variable width due to diffusion between salty and fresh water.
The movement of fresh ground water through deeper confined aquifers in the
coastal plain causes interfaces to retreat slowly seaward over geologic time.
However, in areas of heavy ground water pumping and resultant water level declines, saline ground water can move toward pumping centers due to a
reversal of hydraulic gradient.

As illustrated by a generalized annual water budget model for the lower Cape
Fear River Basin (figure 23), recharge occurs predominantly through rainfall, which enters the surficial (or water table) aquifer in the inter-stream areas. The
lower Cape Fear River Basin receives an average of 50 inches of total
precipitation per year based on historical records covering the years between
1971 to 2000 (Southeast Regional Climate Center, table 1). Based on a water budget model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for Brunswick County (Harden, Fine and Spruill, 2003), and using precipitation data averaged for the
area, it was determined that about 8 inches of the 50 inches of total annual
precipitation is lost to overland flow to nearby surface water bodies. Another 32
inches are taken up annually through evapotranspiration. Of the 10 inches of water that enters the water table as recharge, 9 inches per year flows from recharge to discharge areas such as the Cape Fear, Lumber, South, and
Waccamaw Rivers, associated floodplains, and the Boiling Springs Lakes. One
inch or less of ground water per year enters the deeper confined aquifers as
recharge. This water budget model assumes steady state conditions in which no pumping from the ground water system is occurring.
Piedmont Cape Fear River Basin water budget (figure 24) from Daniels and
Sharpless (1983) differs slightly from the coastal plain model with differing
amounts of average rainfall, evapotransporation, and runoff. The biggest distinction is the lack of a recharge component to confined aquifers.

Figures 21 and 22: Hydrogeologic Cross Sections in CFRB (vertically exaggerated)

43
44
Figures 23 and 24: Typical Water Budgets for the (a) Coastal Plain and (b) Piedmont Portions of CFRB

Hydrogeologic Framework of the Cape Fear River Basin
Surficial Aquifer

The surficial aquifer is the uppermost aquifer in the system of aquifers and
confining units that comprise the hydrogeologic framework of the lower Cape
Fear River Basin. The surficial aquifer is unconfined and thus, the water table is able to fluctuate with changes in ground water storage. It is the first aquifer to
receive recharge, storing water as it moves laterally to rivers, lakes and other
discharge areas, and downward in small quantities to deeper, confined aquifers.
The rate at which recharge occurs in any given area in the study region is
dependant on several factors, including:
• differences in precipitation rates from one area to another.
• variations in soil types and their differing infiltration capacities.
• the position of the water table relative to land surface, which varies over
time.
• the slope of the land surface.
• evapotranspiration rates, which vary across the region, and over time.

Over the Coastal Plain Section of the Cape Fear River Basin, the surficial aquifer
is primarily made up of Quaternary age sands with interbedded silts and clays, but can also be composed of older units depending on the stratigraphic position
of the first confining bed and where the various, older units are present in the
shallow subsurface.

In the Piedmont section of the Cape Fear River Basin, regolith is classified as the surficial aquifer and the fractured basement rock is either unconfined (a part of
the surficial aquifer) or partly confined (see figure 2). The Triassic Basin aquifer,
because of the fine grained nature of the sediments, is unusually difficult to use
for obtaining ground water. Wells are very low yielding and typically only
associated with homeowners, not industry or commercial users. The diabase dikes prevalent in the Carolina Slate Belt and Triassic Basins can make wells in
these areas much more prolific because water is drawn from much greater
distances along the fractures associated with the igneous intrusive rock. Ground
water flows in the porespaces of the regolith and in the openings (joints or
fractures) of the metaigneous rocks of the Carolina Slate Belt.
In the Piedmont, ground water flow boundaries are equivalent to the surface
water drainage areas. Topographic highs form surface drainage and ground
water divides and topographic lows form drainage avenues for both surface and
ground water systems. Ground water flow tends to be localized or contained within a watershed. Ground water flow in the Coastal Plain can occur in a
regional sense or between surface water basins.
45

Rainfall infiltrates through regolith and into basement rock fractures. Regolith
may be composed of soil horizons, weathered material overlying basement rock
(saprolite), or eroded and deposited weathered material (alluvium). Rainfall
infiltrates directly into basement rock where it is exposed at land surface. The
water table is defined as the depth where the openings in the subsurface materials become saturated. Those openings may be joints or fractures in rock
or pore spaces in unconsolidated rock material. The water table is a muted
imitation of the topography; it is highest under hills and lowest in stream valleys.
However, the water table is also closest to land surface in valleys. Ground water
naturally discharges from the subsurface as base flow in streams and at springs (where the water table is higher than land surface). Base flow is the portion of
stream flow made up of ground water. It is most easily measured when rainfall is
negligible over a significant amount of time. The generalized annual water
budget for the upper Cape Fear River Basin is shown in figure 24.
In figure 25, the water table is represented by the solid line (the height water will
reach in a well). When rainfall is scarce the ground water is not recharged and
the water table declines (dashed line) as it is discharged from the subsurface via
surface water drainage. Ground water would naturally follow theoretical flow
lines as indicated, but would be restricted to flow through available openings or fractures. In this example, the stream would go dry without current runoff from
rainfall into drainage.

In the diagram fractures in the basement rock illustrate some of the pathways in
which ground water might flow. Fractures are shown as being more common in the valley and less common below the hill. In most cases topography is
controlled by the fracture patterns. More highly fractured rock forms the valleys
and draws and less fractured the hills and ridges. Often, fractures form
conjugate pairs; fractures that are 60 to 90 degrees apart from one another. In some areas of the Upper Cape Fear River Basin, the fracture patterns are obvious from the distribution and alignment of streams and topography. Ground
water flow within saprolite and alluvium occurs through interconnected
porespaces or sometimes through relict foliations in saprolite.
Locating wells near lineations in topography or drainage patterns or at the intersection of such features usually increases the well yield. However, yields
are dependent on many factors including depth of well, diameter of well, location
(hill or valley), degree and orientation of fracturing of the rock unit, degree of
weathering of rock (thickness of saprolite).
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Figure 25, adapted from USGS Water Resources Investigations 77-65, by M. D.Winner, Jr., figure 2. vertically exaggerated and generalized

Shallow wells, commonly dug or bored wells, tap the shallowest portion of the subsurface above the basement rock. They are usually a few tens of feet deep.
They are most susceptible to going dry during drought conditions. Springs are
also used for water supplies, but are also susceptible to going dry. Drilled wells
are the most common method of extracting ground water. These wells are
typically six inches in diameter and more than two hundred feet deep.
The best way to ensure a good yielding well is to drill it where it has the best
chance to intersect as many basement rock fractures as possible. Often this is
difficult to achieve. One may accomplish this by a review of topography and
drainage patterns for the best locations. It is usually the case that a well should not be drilled in the most convenient location. Dug or bored wells should not be
used as they are prone to pollution and drying up.
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Castle Hayne Aquifer

The presence of the Castle Hayne aquifer is limited to the eastern part of Cape
Fear River Basin in eastern Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, Duplin and
Onslow Counties. It is much thinner in the southeastern Coastal Plain than in the
central Coastal Plain, achieving a maximum known thickness of 318 feet in Onslow County. The top of the aquifer dips gently from northwest to southeast
at a rate of about 12 feet per mile, and ranges in elevation from between 18 feet
above sea level to 130 feet below sea level at Carolina Beach in New Hanover
County.
The aquifer consists primarily of light gray to white moldic limestones, and
bryozoan rich limestones of the Eocene age Castle Hayne Formation, grading
downward to calcareous, fine-grained sandstone in the deeper subsurface. It
also contains the uppermost part of the Peedee Formation of Cretaceous age in
central New Hanover County, the lower part of the River Bend Formation of Oligocene age in southern New Hanover County, and the upper part of the
Beaufort Formation of Paleocene age in southeastern Brunswick County. Where
these formations are included the aquifer may also contain gray to light brown,
silty, fine grained quartz sand, sandy moldic limestone or fine-grained shelly
sandstone.
The aquifer is recharged by water moving downward from the surficial aquifer at
a rate that varies from place to place over the study region. Rates of recharge
are dependent on the thickness and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the
overlying confining unit, and how much higher the water table elevation is above the elevation of the Castle Hayne potentiometric surface in recharge areas.

Peedee Aquifer
The Peedee aquifer is present in the southeastern part of the Cape Fear River Basin, pinching out approximately along a line through central Bladen County,
the southern tip of Sampson, and into central Duplin County. It dips to the
southeast at a rate of 5 feet per mile, increasing to a rate of 24 feet per mile in
New Hanover County. The elevation of the top of the aquifer ranges from 38 feet above sea level in southern Robeson County to 219 feet below sea level at Kure Beach in New Hanover County. The top surface of the aquifer is rather
hummocky in the central part of the study area, apparently due to an erosional
cut and fill surface between Quaternary and Peedee age deposits. The aquifer is
generally wedge shaped in profile, thickening toward the southeast to a known maximum of 404 feet in eastern Brunswick County.
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The aquifer is primarily composed of the Upper Cretaceous age Peedee Formation, the lithology consists of gray or light brown, silty, fine to very fine
grained quartz sand with trace quantities of glauconite, phosphorite, oyster
shells, and pyrite. In southeastern Brunswick and north central New Hanover
Counties, the Rocky Point Member makes up the uppermost part of the Peedee
Formation, consisting of gray, sandy, moldic limestone, grading downward to a very calcareous sandstone. The updip limit of the Peedee aquifer extends in
some areas, a few miles further to the northwest than the limit of the Peedee
Formation as delineated on the North Carolina Geologic Map. The reason for
this is that the aquifer contains some upper sands of the Black Creek Formation
and probably some lower sands of Quaternary age that directly overly the Peedee Formation.

Black Creek Aquifer
The Black Creek aquifer is present over most of the coastal plain section of the
Cape Fear River Basin, and is made up of alternating beds of sand and clay of
the Upper Cretaceous Black Creek Formation. The sands are generally gray to
olive gray in color, fine to medium grained, poorly sorted, and contain variable
amounts of glauconite, phosphorite, shell fragments, lignite, and traces of mica, pyrite and marcasite. Clays are generally gray to black in color, and lignitic.
Individual sand and clay beds generally range between 10 and 20 feet in
thickness across the region. The aquifer includes the Middendorf Formation in
Hoke, western Cumberland, and Harnett Counties where it interfingers into the
Black Creek Formation and appears to be connected hydraulically. Due to a lack of water level data, it is somewhat uncertain as to whether the aquifer is confined
in these counties, or part of the surficial aquifer. Correlation of geophysical logs
indicates the persistance of clay beds in the upper part of the Middendorf
Formation or lower part of the Quaternary. For this reason, the aquifer appears to be confined in the interfluvial areas and under water table conditions in the fluvial valleys where confining beds have been eroded.

The top of the aquifer dips to the southeast at a rate of 8 to 10 feet per mile as
exhibited by elevation contours. It ranges in elevation between 318 feet above sea level in northern Hoke County, to 641 feet below sea level at Kure Beach in southern New Hanover County

The Black Creek aquifer is recharged by water moving downward from the
Peedee aquifer in the portion of the study area where the Peedee is present. Where the Black Creek is well confined, it is recharged at rates of less than one inch per year (or less than 47,610 gallons per day per square mile). To the
northwest of the area where the Peedee aquifer pinches out, the thickness of
sediments that overly the Black Creek is reduced, the confining unit is generally
thinner, and recharge rates are assumed to be much higher. This depends of course, on the other factors that control recharge to confined aquifers, such as
49

vertical hydraulic conductivity, and hydraulic gradients. In Hoke, Bladen, Cumberland and Harnett Counties, the Black Creek aquifer occurs at a shallow
enough level in the subsurface to be incised by the Cape Fear River and its
tributaries, allowing direct discharge of ground water (figure 2).

Upper Cape Fear Aquifer

The Upper Cape Fear aquifer is composed of alternating beds of sand, clay, and
silt which are part of the Upper Cretaceous Cape Fear Formation. The sands are
made up of quartz and feldspar, and are fine to coarse grained, subrounded to subangular, poorly sorted with minor to abundant iron oxide staining. Also present are accessory iron oxide minerals such as pyrite, marcasite, and siderite.
Fine gravel is present in some well samples. Clay and silt beds are generally
red, pink, to yellowish gray in color.
The top of the aquifer ranges in elevation between 38 feet above sea level to 905 feet below sea level at Kure Beach in southern New Hanover County. The top of
the aquifer dips to the southeast at a rate that varies from 5 feet per mile to 29
feet per mile in the eastern part of the Cape Fear River Basin. The unit is wedge
shaped in cross sectional profile, thickening generally toward the southeast from a minimum of 44 feet to a maximum of 208 feet in northern New Hanover County.

Combined pumping from the Black Creek and Upper Cape Fear aquifers
(1,974 gallons per day) at Smithfield Foods Inc. near Tarheel in Bladen County, and from the Elizabethtown-White Lake area (903,000 gpd) has produced large cones of depression in both the Black Creek and Upper Cape Fear aquifers.
Upper Cape Fear water levels at the center of the Smithfield Foods cone of
depression have been drawn down to approximately 114 feet below sea level.
Due to reductions in the volume of water withdrawn from the Upper Cape Fear aquifer, water levels recovered somewhat at Smithfield Foods between 2001 and 2005, but have stabilized since then.

The Upper Cape Fear aquifer is particularly sensitive to pumping in the Cape
Fear River Basin because it is well confined by thick overlying clay beds which highly limit the amount of vertical recharge. The aquifer is also relatively thin in the Tarheel-Elizabethtown area, which limits transmissivity, and large cones of
depression are able to form due to relatively low volume pumping. Careful well
field design, including adequate spacing between wells is necessary to prevent
excessive drawdown in this aquifer.
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Lower Cape Fear Aquifer

The Lower Cape Fear Aquifer is lithologically similar to the Upper Cape Fear with
the exception that it contains in its lower part, reworked materials from the
underlying Paleozoic age basement rock. Sediments that comprise the aquifer
are part of the Upper Cretaceous Cape Fear Formation.
According to an elevation contour map, the top of the aquifer dips to the
southeast at a rate that varies from 9 feet per mile to 31 feet per mile in the
eastern-most section of the study area. The average thickness is 151 feet, with a
range between zero where it pinches out, to 430 feet near the town of Southport in Brunswick County. The aquifer is used very little in the study region, due
mostly to the fact that it contains salt water over the majority of the area.

Division of Water Resources Monitoring Well Network
The operation of the monitoring well network is an integral part of DWR’s mission
to ensure that the State has an adequate water supply for its citizens.
Information collected quarterly from this well network are used to:

• Evaluate climatic influences on the State’s ground water supply, including
effects of drought and recharge-discharge relationships;
• Monitor human-induced effects on the State’s ground water supply,
particularly in the regional aquifer systems of the Coastal Plain physiographic province. These effects include local and regional water
level declines as well as migration of the fresh water-salt water interface
within various aquifers;
• Provide supporting data for enforcement and creation of current and future ground water usage regulations, such as the Central Coastal Plain
Capacity Use Area rules; and
• Provide high quality ground water data to local governments, ground water
professionals, and the general public to use in making informed decisions in ground water related issues.

Data collected from the network are available to the public through DWR’s
internet website, www.ncwater.org. These data include ground water levels,
chloride measurements, well construction information, borehole log construction (lithological and geophysical), ground water monitoring station locations, and
geophysical/lithological data collection from non-DWR well sites.

The monitoring well network currently consists of 555 wells at 182 monitoring stations (sites). There are 22 wells located in the Piedmont and Mountain physiographic provinces (Piedmont and Mountain) and 533 wells located in the
Coastal Plain physiographic province (Coastal Plain). Since the Coastal Plain
relies more heavily on ground water supplies than either the Piedmont or
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Mountain Regions, ground water monitoring and research has been more concentrated in the Coastal Plain.

Hourly water level data are extremely valuable in assessing aquifer recharge,
impacts of large storms on ground water conditions, and delineation of aquifer
boundaries. DWR typically publishes only the manual water level readings and daily water level data from recorders on the website. Hourly data is available
upon request for specific wells.

More resources have been invested in monitoring the Piedmont and Mountain
ground water conditions to better understand the impact of drought cycles on ground water supplies and their contribution to surface water flow. Although
DWR and USGS have been continually monitoring the well network, the drought
network was officially established in 2001 with the development of the DWR
drought web page to house the data. There are 35 wells within the DWR
monitoring well network used to assess drought conditions.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has also contributed to the monitoring of the
State’s ground water resources under a cooperative agreement between the
State of North Carolina and the Federal government. The cooperative well
network consists of 23 monitoring wells, many of which are also part of the DWR statewide network.

There are 88 DWR network wells and two wells operated by the USGS within the
Cape Fear River Basin. These wells are screened in eight different aquifers in
the Coastal Plain and include three wells in basement rock. Eleven of the DWR & USGS network wells within the Cape Fear River basin have been designated
as drought wells. Table 7 summarizes the network wells in the Cape Fear River
Basin.
The distribution of the network wells by aquifer in the basin is as follows: Surficial – 35, Peedee – 11, Upper Cape Fear – 12, Lower Cape Fear – 2, Black
Creek – 20, Castle Hayne – 5, Upper Tertiary – 1, basement rock – 3, and
regolith – 1. Eleven of these wells are used to monitor drought conditions (one
by the USGS and ten by DWR). The drought indicator well network now stands at 46 wells distributed throughout
North Carolina. DWR has established a near term goal of 60 wells associated
with that network. Certainly, additional wells in the Cape Fear River Basin will be
part of that formula. In order to better assess the hydrogeologic conditions of the entire Cape Fear River Basin, additional well stations need to be installed (especially in counties that currently do not have stations) and existing stations
may need additional wells added.
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TABLE 7: County Summary of Cape Fear River Basin Wells
County Station Name No. of
Wells
Drought
Wells
Total by
County
Bladen Kelly 3 1
DuPont 6
Smith McNair House 2
Dublin 5 Bladen - 16
Brunswick Maco 2
Town Creek 2
Boiling Springs RS2 2
Boiling Springs RS1 1
Southport RS4 3 1 Brunswick - 10
Cumberland Cedar Creek Fire Tower 4
Seabrook School 1 1
Bushy Lake 3 Cumberland - 8
Duplin Pink Hill 4
Rose Hill 5 1
Chinquapin 3 Duplin - 12
Guilford Gibsonville 1 1 Guilford - 1
Hoke Raeford 1 Hoke - 1
Moore Hog Island 3
Southern Pines Water
Plant
2
Southern Pines 1 2
Eastwood 1
Weymouth Woods 2 Moore - 10
New
Hanover
Wilmington Airport 1 1
Fort Fisher 1 New Hanover - 2
Onslow Folkstone 6 Onslow - 6
Pender Topsail Beach 4 1
Burgaw 2 Pender - 6
Randolph NC Zoo 1 1 Randolph - 1
Sampson Halls 3 1
Turkey 2
Six Runs 6
Ivanhoe 3 Sampson - 14
Wake Fuquay-Varina 1 1 Wake - 1
DWR Total 10 88
Brunswick USGS, BR-100 1
Orange USGS, NC-126 1 1
Total 11 90
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Ground Water Assessment Techniques
Because ground water flow in the coastal plain’s confined aquifers do not honor
the current basin boundaries (ground water flow occurs across basin boundaries)
the DWR network wells provide a regional picture of the stress on the aquifers.
So, the distribution of wells in the Upper Cape Fear aquifer throughout the coastal plain gives us data to assess the status of that aquifer even though we
may not have many wells in that aquifer within the Cape Fear River Basin
boundaries. There are two recent examples of where water levels collected from
the confined aquifer wells were used to determine who was withdrawing ground
water and whether a capacity use area designation would be needed to correct an over-pumping situation.

Peedee aquifer water levels began dropping dramatically in the southeastern
portion of Brunswick County during 2003-2004. Three monitoring stations
exhibiting this trend were used to pinpoint the location of a new large withdrawal from the aquifer. Cogentrix Inc. north of Southport was determined to be the new
user and they were required to submit a registration of their usage through the
state-wide DWR water withdrawal registration program.

Upper Cape Fear aquifer water levels began dropping in the early 1990’s as a result of withdrawals from Smithfield Foods in Tar Heel, Bladen County and other
users. The impact from these withdrawals could be measured into neighboring
counties and river basins within a few years based on the monitoring well
network data for that aquifer. A 2004 agreement between the Lumber River
Council of Governments, the DWR, and the Environmental Management Commission pressured Smithfield Foods and other water users to begin planning
for use of surface water from the Cape Fear River for their water needs.
Planning necessary for the construction of a new intake on the river, called
Bladen Bluffs, is well on its way. Use of the monitoring well network (or an improved network with additional wells
and better geographic distribution) for ground water assessment in the coastal
plain portion of the Cape Fear River Basin is a valuable method to determine
where the confined aquifers are being stressed too heavily or salt water intrusion may become a problem. In addition, the network is clearly a useful tool to estimate the impact of drought conditions on the shallow ground water levels
throughout the basin. Using the network for more than drought assessment in
the Piedmont portion of the river basin is not practical. Aquifers in the Piedmont
do not have regional characteristics like in the coastal plain, so a network would require too many wells to gauge local aquifer conditions to be practical.
Other investigators have relied on recharge estimations to the shallow ground
water system as a method of defining the capabilities of aquifers. They have
established rates of recharge in gallons per day per square mile using water budget models based on base flow determinations from surface water gage data.
54

Those workers assume that discharge from the aquifer system (base flow) equates to the rate of recharge to the aquifer system and a annual rate available
for use by wells (or some portion thereof). However, these safe yield type
calculations are wrong and impractical. They are wrong because the analysis
requires that a balance between withdrawals, recharge, and natural discharge be
constant over time which is definitely not the case. A safe yield determined for some county or large portion of a county is impractical because it would require a
huge number of wells and access to large areas of land to come close to
withdrawing the estimated rate. Use of annual rates of recharge or potential
withdrawal rates only highlights areas where ground water is more or less
plentiful.
Those types of analyses do not indicate whether a particular ground water
withdrawal is sustainable or without conflict with other nearby users. Use of
ground water flow models would fall victim to the same limitations of the safe
yield determinations. They would also fail to properly imitate the complex nature of flow in the basement rock aquifer of the Piedmont. The current surface water
model of the Cape Fear River (although it does not explicitly model ground water
flow) does implicitly measure discharges from the ground water system into
surface water along the modeled water course. If one could estimate the ground
water discharge amounts from this knowledge, it would still be a rate applied to some large area of land and of little use to a ground water management program.

Heath (1994) mapped rates of recharge to the surficial aquifer state-wide. Figure
6 shows two pictures of the upper Cape Fear River Basin, both with the digital
elevation data (lighter shades of gray equate to higher elevations), hydrography, and the fall line. The second picture shows the distribution of Heath’s recharge
rates as well. The Triassic Basin areas stand out in both pictures as they remain
basins today and contain sediments which make it a slowly recharging area
(150,000 gallons per day per square mile). There is an area in the northwestern portion of the upper Cape Fear River Basin where basement rock fractures appear to control hydrography. Surface water drainage patterns do not appear
as dendritic (or irregularly branched like a tree). Even with estimates of recharge
rates as shown on this map, there is not enough information available to discern
whether a site is capable of providing enough water or that it will not compete with a neighboring well field.
The dot on figure 26 labeled with an “X” in each map identifies an aquifer test
done in May 1983 associated with the Daniel and Sharpless (1983) report. At
this site, 20 wells were drilled and monitored during the test. A production well was pumped for 62 hours at 38.5 gallons per minute. The results indicated an area of drawdown associated with the withdrawal which suggested a distance
which might be used for spacing of multiple production wells. The pump test also
revealed that the area of drawdown was elongated and not symmetrical about
the pumping center. Lastly, the total volume of water withdrawn suggested that water stored in the basement rock fractures was untouched by the test – virtually
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all the water came from storage in the regolith. All this information would not be available without an individual site assessment.

Understanding the sustainability of ground water withdrawals in the Piedmont
portion of the Cape Fear River Basin must rely on information derived from a
local assessment of resource potential by the user, careful maintenance of existing production wells, and tracking of water level and quality measurements
from production wells over time. The same methods work for the Coastal Plain
portion of the basin with the added benefit of a monitoring well network to assess
the regional stress on confined aquifers.

Figure 26: Upper CFRB with and without Heath (1994) Recharge Rates

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6. Interbasin Transfer
Table 8: Local Water Supply Plan Systems Using Surface Water form Cape Fear River Basin
County Water System using Surface Water Source of water
Discharge
to different
hydrologic unit
Estimated
Average Daily
Discharge (mgd)
Service
Area in different
hydologic unit
Estimated
consumptive use in other
hydrologic unit (mgd)
Alamance Alamance Burlington
Burlington Lake Mackintosh, Stoney Creek Reservoir
Elon Burlington
Graham Graham-Mebane Lake
Green Level Graham
Haw River Burlington
Mebane Graham
Swepsonville Graham
Brunswick Bald Head Utilities Brunswick County
Boiling Spring Lakes Brunswick County
Brunswick County Lower Cape Fear WSA X 0.4 X 2.25
Caswell Beach Brunswick County
Holden Beach Brunswick County X 0.4
N. Brunswick SD Brunswick County
Northwest Brunswick County
Oak Island Brunswick County X unk
Ocean Aire Water System Brunswick County
Ocean Isle Beach Brunswick County X 0.276 X 0.424
Shallotte Brunswick County X unk X 0.449
Southport Brunswick County
Sunset Beach Brunswick County X 0.66
Chatham Chatham County East Sanford X unk
Chatham County North B. Everett Jordan Lake
Chatham County Southwest Goldston Gulf SD, Siler City
58

Goldston Gulf SD Deep River
Pittsboro Haw River
Siler City Rocky River, Dobson Lake
St. Lukes Water Goldston Gulf SD
Cumberland Aqua North Carolina, Inc. Harnett County RWS
Brettonwood Hills Fayetteville PWC
Falcon Dunn X 0.104
Fayetteville PWC
Cape Fear River, Glenville Lake, Big
Cross Creek
Godwin Falcon
Kelly Hills Fayetteville PWC
Linden Harnett County RWS
Maxwell Water Company Fayetteville PWC
Old North Utility Services, Inc. (Fort Bragg) Little River, Fayetteville PWC, Harnett County RWS
Spring Lake Fayetteville PWC, Harnett County RWS
Stedman Fayetteville PWC X 0.045
Guilford Gibsonville Burlington
Greensboro
Lake Townsend, Lake Brandt, Lake
Higgins, Reidsville, Burlington X 3.3
High Point Deep River (City Lake, Oak Hollow) X 3.76 X unk
Jamestown High Point, Greensboro X unk
Harnett Angier Harnett County RWS

Bragg Comm./NTA Water
System Harnett County RWS
Coats Harnett County RWS
Dunn Cape Fear River X unk

Harnett County Regional Water
System Cape Fear River X unk
Lillington Harnett County RWS
Hoke Hoke County Fayetteville PWC X unk
Johnston Benson Dunn X unk X 0.938
Johnston County Benson X 0.063
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Lee Broadway Sanford
Sanford Cape Fear River X 3.88 X 0.87
Utilities, Inc. (Carolina Trace) Sanford
Moore Carthage Nicks Creek X unk
East Moore Water District Harnett County RWS
Moore County Public Utilities-Vass East Moore Water District
Robbins Cabin Creek, Bear Creek
Skyline Estates Harnett County RWS
Woodlake Harnett County RWS
New Hanover Lower Cape Fear WSA Cape Fear River
Wilmington Cape Fear River X unk X unk
Orange Orange Water and Sewer Authority Cane Creek Reservoir, University Lake
Orange-Alamance Water Haw River, Town of X 0.484
Randolph Archdale High Point
Franklinville Ramseur
Ramseur Sandy Creek
Randleman Polecat Creek (City Reservoir)
Rockingham Reidsville Lake Reidsville, Lake Hunt X unk
Rockingham County Reidsville X unk
Sampson Sampson County Dunn X 0.616
Wake Apex B. Everett Jordan Lake X 2.22 X unk
Cary B. Everett Jordan Lake X 11.66 X unk
Feltonsville Community Apex X 0.009
Fuquay Varina Harnett County RWS X unk X unk
Holly Springs Harnett County RWS X 0.118
RDU Cary X 0.26
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