UpperNew_Watauga OASIS Modeling Mtg#3 11dec2019 final

Upper New and Watauga River
Basin Hydrologic Model
Overview
December 11, 2019
Steven Nebiker
Casey Caldwell
1
Meeting Objectives
•Review system-specific operating rules and input data used
in basecase model run
•Show preliminary results
•Training for basic use of model
2
Concept of Hydrologic Model
A basin-wide model of the Upper New and Watauga river basins at the
finest practical geographic resolution and timestep.
Possible Uses:
1. Evaluation of the combined effects of municipal water supply plans
2. Evaluation of inter-basin transfer permit applications
3. Development of individual water supply plans –
model will be on the DWR server and available to stakeholders and
their consultants
4. A platform for developing risk-based drought plans.
3
Project Timeline
•Components
–Basin schematic: Complete
–Data collection (demands and discharges, including agricultural demands): Complete
–Inflow development: Complete
–Operating rules: Complete pending review
–Current and future demand model runs: 1-2 months (Current complete pending review)
–Documentation, installation, and training: 1-2 months (pending setup of new DWR server)
–Expected completion date: Feb 2020
–New OASIS Model Development: Mostly complete
•Complete items: translator program, schematic updates, forecast plugin and gage data download, agricultural demand module, plotting program
•To do: Setup new server, translate existing models, SY module, demand multiplier
4
Geographic Scope of Model
5
Watauga
6
Upper
New
7
Reservoir Summary
Year
Constructed
Drainage
Area (mi²)
Usable Storage
(MG)
Minimum
Release (cfs)
ASU Lake
(Norris Branch)1974 0.34 300 N/A
Boone 1957 0.91 60 N/A
Blowing Rock 1958 0.53 47 N/A
Roaring Gap 1927 1.12 333 N/A
Buckeye 1987 3.19 29 1.5 Jan-Sep,
2.5 Oct-Dec
Coffey 1968 0.05 7 N/A
8
Year Constructed Source: “Dams_June_2008” GIS files
Drainage Area and Usable Storage Source: “Dams_June_2008” GIS files and “03 LWSP Data.xlsx”
Buckeye Lake Source: Beech Mountain Consultant: WEST, PLLC
Watauga
Upper
New
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
ASU Lake Boone Blowing Rock Buckeye Coffey
Us
a
b
l
e

S
t
o
r
a
g
e

(
M
G
)
Reservoir Storage
9
Upper New
Watauga
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3345 3350 3355 3360 3365 3366.5 3370 3375 3380 3385 3390 3395 3400
St
o
r
a
g
e

(
M
G
)
Elevation (ft)
Buckeye Lake
•Upper Rule (Normal Pool):
36 MG (3390 ft)
•Lower Rule (Dead Storage):
7 MG (3366.5 ft)
•Useable Storage:
29 MG (81%)
•Drainage Area (at dam):
3.19 mi²
Upper Rule
Lower Rule
•Year Constructed: 1987
•SAE Curve from Beech Mountain
Consultant: WEST, PLLC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
3465 3470 3475 3480 3485 3487 3490
St
o
r
a
g
e

(
M
G
)
Elevation (ft)
Blowing Rock Reservoir
•Upper Rule (Normal Pool):
47 MG (3490 ft)
•Lower Rule (Dead Storage):
0 MG (3465 ft)
•Useable Storage:
47 MG (100%)
•Drainage Area (at dam):
0.53 mi²
Upper Rule
Lower Rule•Year Constructed: 1958
•SAE Curve based on drought plan
(Blowing_Rock_WSRP18.pdf)
Upper New Withdrawals and Discharges (2013-17)
12
Upper New Basin -Boone
•Primary Source –South Fork New River
•Annual Average Demand = 1.64 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 3.0 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐Discharge at SF New River gage is <300 cfs for >14 consecutive days
•10% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐Discharge at SF New River gage is <150 cfs for >10 consecutive days
•25% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐Discharge at SF New River gage is <50 cfs
•50% demand reduction
13
Upper New Basin –Blowing Rock
•Primary Source –Flat Top Branch (Blowing Rock Reservoir)
•Annual Average Demand = 0.47 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 1.0 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐Blowing Rock Reservoir 3 ft below full (81% usable storage)
•5% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐Blowing Rock Reservoir 5 ft below full (66% usable storage)
•10% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐Blowing Rock Reservoir 10 ft below full (45% usable storage)
•20% demand reduction
–Level 4 ‐‐Blowing Rock Reservoir 15 ft below full (27% usable storage)
•25% demand reduction
–Level 5 --Blowing Rock Reservoir 20 ft below full (14% usable storage)
•25% demand reduction
14
Upper New Basin -ASU
•Primary Source –ASU Reservoir (Norris Branch)
•Annual Average Demand = 0.31 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 2.0 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐Reservoir < 4 ft below full
•5% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐Reservoir < 8 ft below full
•10% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐Reservoir < 12 ft below full
•25% demand reduction
15
Upper New Basin –Jefferson
•Primary Source –South Fork New River
•Annual Average Demand = 0.24 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 0.75 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐Discharge at SF New River gage is <300 cfs for >14 consecutive days
•5% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐Discharge at SF New River gage is <200 cfs for >10 consecutive days
•10% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐Discharge at SF New River gage is <150 cfs for >7 consecutive days
•20% demand reduction
–Level 4 ‐‐Discharge at SF New River gage is <100 cfs for >5 consecutive days
•25% demand reduction
–Level 5 ‐‐Discharge at SF New River gage is <50 cfs
•30% demand reduction
16
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Fr
a
c
t
i
o
n

o
f

A
n
n
u
a
l

A
v
e
r
a
g
e
Month
Appalachian State Blowing Rock Jefferson Boone
Upper New Basin –Demand Patterns
17
Month Fraction of Annual Demand
ASU Blowing
Rock Jefferson Boone
Jan 1.02 1.12 1.04 1.02
Feb 1.15 1.03 1.08 1.06
Mar 1.00 0.90 0.98 0.98
Apr 1.10 0.84 0.96 0.98
May 0.85 0.92 1.02 0.96
Jun 0.75 1.06 1.05 0.95
Jul 0.79 1.16 1.01 0.99
Aug 1.04 1.08 1.03 1.03
Sep 1.30 1.00 0.97 1.05
Oct 1.10 1.00 1.00 1.03
Nov 1.05 0.94 0.96 1.01
Dec 0.84 0.96 0.90 0.96
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
WW

R
e
t
u
r
n

a
s

F
r
a
c
t
i
o
n

o
f

M
o
n
t
h
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Month
Blowing Rock Jefferson Appalachian State & Boone
Upper New Basin –Return Patterns
18
Month Fraction of Monthly Demand
Blowing
Rock Jefferson ASU & Boone
Jan 0.56 1.10 1.24
Feb 0.57 1.12 1.27
Mar 0.56 1.13 1.25
Apr 0.69 1.13 1.34
May 0.85 1.04 1.40
Jun 0.67 0.83 1.27
Jul 0.68 0.89 1.34
Aug 0.62 0.90 1.22
Sep 0.61 0.98 1.21
Oct 0.77 1.10 1.30
Nov 0.73 1.11 1.25
Dec 0.65 1.17 1.24
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
WW

R
e
t
u
r
n

a
s

F
r
a
c
t
i
o
n

o
f

A
n
n
u
a
l

A
v
e
r
a
g
e
Month
Sparta United Chemi-Con West Jefferson
Upper New Basin –Other Return Patterns
19
Month Fraction of Annual Average
Sparta United
Chemi-Con
West
Jefferson
Jan 0.97 0.48 1.00
Feb 0.99 0.44 1.06
Mar 0.88 0.41 0.93
Apr 0.99 0.63 1.02
May 0.99 0.53 1.12
Jun 0.94 1.00 1.00
Jul 1.04 1.82 1.10
Aug 1.03 1.62 0.98
Sep 1.01 1.95 0.90
Oct 1.15 1.59 0.98
Nov 1.03 1.01 0.93
Dec 1.00 0.51 0.98
2013-17 Average
Annual Discharge
(MGD)0.28 0.05 0.24
Watauga Withdrawals and Discharges (2013-17)
20
Watauga Basin –Beech Mountain
•Primary Source –Buckeye Creek (Buckeye Reservoir)
–Minimum release from Buckeye (not to exceed natural inflow)
•1.5 cfs January –September
•2.8 cfs October –December
Source: Beech Mountain -Buckeye Lake Yield Analysis -2-7-14 (medium).pdf
Note: In meeting was indicated that a new minimum release protocol was recently approved; this will be incorporated into the final model•Pond Creek (Lake Coffey) is emergency water source
•Annual Average Demand = 0.36 MGD•Treatment Capacity = 1.0 MGD•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐Buckeye Lake below full (No longer flowing over spillway)
•5% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐Buckeye Lake 4 ft below full
•10% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐Buckeye Lake 6.5 ft below full
•20% demand reduction
–Level 4 ‐‐Buckeye Lake 13.5 ft below full
•25% demand reduction
–Level 5 ‐‐Buckeye Lake 23.5 ft below full
•25% demand reduction21
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Fr
a
c
t
i
o
n

o
f

A
n
n
u
a
l

A
v
e
r
a
g
e
Month
Watauga Basin –Beech Mountain Demand Pattern
22
Month Fraction of Annual Demand
Beech Mountain
Jan 1.11
Feb 1.09
Mar 0.95
Apr 0.83
May 0.91
Jun 1.04
Jul 1.24
Aug 1.08
Sep 0.97
Oct 0.96
Nov 0.84
Dec 0.96
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
WW

R
e
t
u
r
n

a
s

F
r
a
c
t
i
o
n

o
f

M
o
n
t
h
l
y

D
e
m
a
n
d
Month
Watauga Basin –Beech Mountain Return Pattern
23
Month
Fraction of Monthly
Demand
Beech Mountain
Jan 0.52
Feb 0.52
Mar 0.40
Apr 0.46
May 0.40
Jun 0.29
Jul 0.48
Aug 0.34
Sep 0.38
Oct 0.47
Nov 0.39
Dec 0.52
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
WW

R
e
t
u
r
n

a
s

F
r
a
c
t
i
o
n

o
f

A
n
n
u
a
l

A
v
e
r
a
g
e
Month
Banner Elk Sugar Mountain
Watauga Basin –Other Return Patterns
24
Month Fraction of Annual Average
Banner Elk Sugar
Mountain
Jan 1.04 1.16
Feb 1.09 1.18
Mar 0.85 0.95
Apr 1.04 0.95
May 1.09 0.97
Jun 0.81 0.93
Jul 1.02 1.22
Aug 0.97 0.99
Sep 1.03 0.86
Oct 1.13 0.93
Nov 0.99 0.84
Dec 0.94 1.01
2013-17 Average
Annual Discharge
(MGD)0.36 0.21
Typical Model Output
•Flow in the river
•Storage and elevation at reservoirs
•Derived attributes
–Frequency and duration of drought plan activation
–Frequency and duration of transfer / sales
–Environmental / instream flow statistics
25
Overview of Preliminary Basecase Results
26
•Shown live from the model in training
Next steps
•Finalize model operations based on feedback from meeting
•Setup NC DWR server and install model
•Documentation
27