FB_Nolichucky_Pigeon OASIS Modeling Mtg#3 10dec2019 final

French Broad, Nolichucky, and
Pigeon River Basin Hydrologic
Model Overview
December 10, 2019
Steven Nebiker
Casey Caldwell
1
Meeting Objectives
•Review system-specific operating rules and input data used
in basecase model run
•Show preliminary results
•Training for basic use of model
2
Concept of Hydrologic Model
A basinwide model of the French Broad, Nolichucky, and Pigeon river
basins at the finest practical geographic resolution and timestep.
Possible Uses:
1. Evaluation of the combined effects of municipal water supply plans
2. Evaluation of interbasin transfer permit applications
3. Development of individual water supply plans –
model will be on the DWR server and available to stakeholders and
their consultants
4. A platform for developing risk-based drought plans.
3
Project Timeline
•Components
–Basin schematic: Complete
–Data collection (demands and discharges, including agricultural demands): Complete
–Inflow development: Complete
–Operating rules: Complete pending review
–Current and future demand model runs: 1-2 months (Current complete pending review)
–Documentation, installation, and training: 1-2 months (pending setup of new DWR server)
–Expected completion date: Feb 2020
–New OASIS Model Development: Mostly complete
•Complete items: translator program, schematic updates, forecast plugin and gage data download, agricultural demand module, plotting program
•To do: Setup new server, translate existing models, SY module, demand multiplier
4
Geographic Scope of Model
5
Reservoir SummaryYear Constructed Drainage Area (mi²)Usable Storage (MG)Minimum Release (cfs)
Nolichucky
Beaver Creek 1.75 11
Pigeon
Junaluska 1913 63.6 2,220 N/A
Waterville*1929 455.0 2,892 100
Waynesville 1982 12.9 450 3.5
French Broad
Julian 1964 4.78 2,935
Beetree 1927 7.62 466
North Fork 1954 21.9 4,086
Mars Hill 1958 0.836 10 N/A
Woodfin 2 45 N/A
Marshall*1911 1343 130 N/A
Bradley Creek 10.3 3 0.8
NF Mills 10.5 4 0.8
Ivy River Dam*156 13 16.0
Craggy Dam (MSD)*965 90 460 –860 6
*Hydro-electric facility
Reservoir Storage
7
French Broad
Pigeon
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2480 2490 2500 2510 2520 2530 2540 2550 2560 2570 2580 2590 2600 2610
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Elevation (ft)
North Fork Reservoir
•Upper Rule (Normal Pool):
4809 MG (2598 ft –varies
monthly)
•Lower Rule (Dead Storage):
723 MG (2530 ft)
•Useable Storage:
4086 MG (85%)
Lower Rule
Upper Rule
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2573 2580 2590 2600 2610 2620 2630 2640 2650 2660 2668
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Elevation (ft)
Bee Tree Reservoir
•Upper Rule (Normal Pool):
499 MG (2666.8 ft)
•Lower Rule (Dead Storage):
33 MG (2606.8 ft)
•Useable Storage:
466 MG (93%)
Lower Rule
Upper Rule
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
3089 3090 3095 3097.5 3100 3105 3110
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Elevation (ft)
Woodfin Reservoir
•Upper Rule (Normal Pool):
45 MG (3110 ft)
•Lower Rule (Dead Storage):
0 MG (3089 ft)
•Useable Storage:
45 MG (100%)
Lower Rule
Upper Rule
Mars Hill Reservoir (Poplar Cove)
•Upper Rule (Max Storage):
12.1 MG (3820 ft)
•Lower Rule (Dead Storage):
0 MG (3785 ft)
•Useable Storage:
12.1 MG (100%)
Lower Rule
Upper Rule
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
31
0
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8
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32
1
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32
1
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32
1
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Elevation (ft)
Waynesville Reservoir
•Upper Rule (Normal Pool):
450 MG (3173.5 ft)
•Lower Rule (Dead Storage):
0 MG (3106 ft)
•Useable Storage:
450 MG (100%)
Lower Rule
Normal Pool
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2153 2160 2170 2180 2190 2200 2210 2220 2230 2240 2250 2258
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Elevation (ft)
Waterville Reservoir (Walters Dam)
•Upper Rule (Normal Pool):
5472 MG (2258 ft)
•Lower Rule (Dead Storage):
2580 MG (2228 ft)
•Useable Storage:
2892 MG (53%)Lower Rule
Normal Pool
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2060 2067 2077 2087 2097 2107 2117 2127 2137 2147 2157 2165
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Elevation (ft)
Lake Julian
•Upper Rule (Normal Pool):
5167 MG (2165 ft)
•Lower Rule (Dead Storage):
2233 MG (2132 ft)
•Useable Storage:
2933 MG (57%)
Lower Rule
Normal Pool
Pigeon Withdrawals and Discharges (2013-17)
15
Pigeon Basin -Waynesville
•Primary Source –Allens Creek / Waynesville Reservoir
•Sells water to Town of Maggie Valley
•Annual Average Demand = 3.4 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 8.0 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐Reservoir levels drop 6 feet from full pond (20% of usable storage)
•5% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐Reservoir levels drop 11 feet from full pond (30% of usable storage)
•10% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐Reservoir levels drop 16 feet from full pond (40% of usable storage)
•20% demand reduction
–Level 4 ‐‐Reservoir levels drop 26 feet from full pond (55% of usable storage, change from primary intake to secondary intake)
•25% demand reduction
–Level 5 ‐‐Reservoir levels drop to 40 feet from full pond (75% of usable storage, change from secondary intake to bottom intake)
•35% demand reduction
16
Pigeon Basin –Maggie Valley SD
•Primary Source –Campbell Creek and Jonathan Creek
•Annual Average Demand = 1.0 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 3.0 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1‐‐<1050 GPM (2.34 cfs) flow at WTP intake on Campbell Creek OR level on staff gage in Jonathan Creek <= 0.5’ for 5 consecutive days
•5% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐<800 GPM (1.78 cfs) flow at WTP intake on Campbell Creek OR level on staff gage in Jonathan Creek <= 0.4’ for 5 consecutive days
•10% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐No available flow at WTP intake on Campbell Creek OR level on staff gage in Jonathan Creek <= 0.3’ for 5 consecutive days
•20% demand reduction
–Level 4 ‐‐No available flow at WTP intake on Campbell Creek OR level on staff gage in Jonathan Creek <= 0.2’ for 5 consecutive days
•25% demand reduction
–Level 5 ‐‐No available flow at WTP intake on Campbell Creek OR level on staff gage in Jonathan Creek <= 0.1’ for 5 consecutive days
•30% demand reduction
17
Pigeon Basin -Canton
•Primary Source –Pigeon River
•Annual Average Demand = 1.3 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 4.0 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 --Canton WTP production exceeds 3.0 MGD (75% of plant capacity) and
20 % of the flow in the Pigeon River on a 5 consecutive day moving average
–Level 2 ‐‐Canton WTP production exceeds 3.4 MGD (85% of plant capacity) and
20 % of the flow in the Pigeon River on a 5 consecutive day moving average
–Level 3 ‐‐Canton WTP production exceeds 3.8 MGD (95% of plant capacity) and
20 % of the flow in the Pigeon River on a 5 consecutive day moving average
18
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Canton Waynesville Maggie Valley
Pigeon Basin –Demand Patterns
19
Month Fraction of Annual Demand
Waynesville Maggie Valley Canton
Jan 0.99 0.33 1.05
Feb 1.00 0.33 1.05
Mar 0.97 0.30 0.98
Apr 0.98 0.36 0.96
May 1.01 0.30 0.98
Jun 1.02 0.28 0.99
Jul 1.04 0.31 0.99
Aug 1.02 0.28 0.99
Sep 1.01 0.28 0.99
Oct 1.01 0.30 0.98
Nov 0.98 0.26 1.02
Dec 0.98 0.35 1.03
0.00
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0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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Maggie Valley Waynesville
Pigeon Basin –Wastewater Patterns
20
Month
Fraction of Monthly
Demand
Waynesville Maggie Valley
Jan 1.25 0.33
Feb 1.31 0.33
Mar 1.22 0.30
Apr 1.27 0.36
May 1.10 0.30
Jun 0.96 0.28
Jul 0.97 0.31
Aug 0.92 0.28
Sep 0.88 0.28
Oct 0.98 0.30
Nov 1.02 0.26
Dec 1.26 0.35
Nolichucky Withdrawals and Discharges (2013-17)
21
Nolichucky Basin -Burnsville
•Primary Source –Cane River
•Annual Average Demand = 0.6 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 1.0 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐Staff gage at intake at 32 inches
•5% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐Staff gage at intake at 26 inches
•10% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐Staff gage at intake at 20 inches
•20% demand reduction
–Level 4 ‐‐Staff gage at intake at 15 inches
•25% demand reduction
–Level 5 ‐‐Staff gage at intake at 12 inches
•30% demand reduction
22
Nolichucky Basin –Spruce Pine
•Primary Source –Beaver Creek and North Toe River
•Annual Average Demand = 0.97 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 1.61 MGD
•Drought Plan
–A water shortage is declared when demand reaches the point where continued or
increased demand will equal or exceed the system supply and transmission
capabilities.
23
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Burnsville Spruce Pine
Nolichucky Basin –Demand Patterns
24
Month
Fraction of Annual
Demand
Burnsville Spruce Pine
Jan 0.99 0.99
Feb 1.03 1.00
Mar 0.99 0.99
Apr 0.97 1.00
May 0.99 0.83
Jun 1.03 1.01
Jul 1.01 1.03
Aug 1.02 1.05
Sep 1.02 1.06
Oct 1.00 1.02
Nov 0.98 1.02
Dec 0.97 1.00
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
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Burnsville Spruce Pine
Nolichucky Basin –Wastewater Patterns
25
Month
Fraction of Monthly
Demand
Burnsville Spruce Pine
Jan 1.17 0.53
Feb 1.09 0.55
Mar 1.08 0.53
Apr 1.19 0.56
May 1.18 0.70
Jun 1.08 0.52
Jul 1.13 0.54
Aug 1.03 0.54
Sep 1.04 0.49
Oct 1.08 0.55
Nov 1.07 0.52
Dec 1.24 0.62
Upper French Broad Withdrawals and Discharges (2013-17)
26
Average WD = 180.9 mgd, Average Ret = 164.8 mgd
Average non-steam plant WD = 38.5 mgd, Average non-steam plant Ret = 23.0 mgd
French Broad Basin -Asheville
•Primary Source –Bee Tree & North Fork Reservoirs, Mills River
–Model allows user to configure amounts from each WTP
–Default is 0 from Bee Tree, 3 from Mills (increases in drought)
•Sells water to Woodfin, Weaverville, and Hendersonville
•Total Annual Average Demand = 17.5 MGD
•Total Treatment Capacity = 43.5 MGD
•Drought Plan -Forecast based
–Level 1 ‐‐20% chance of NF Res. 29 ft below full (2572 ft) in 10 weeks
•Overall 2% demand reduction; Mills River Regional WTP increase production by 3 MGD
–Level 2 ‐‐10% chance of NF Res. 30 ft below full (2571 ft) in 10 weeks
•Overall 4% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐5% Chance of NF res 31 ft below full (2570 ft) in 8 weeks
•Overall 6% demand reduction
27
Asheville System -Simplified
28
French
Broad River
French Broad
Discharge
(MSD)
Sales to
Hendersonville
Mills River
Regional WTP
North Fork
Reservoir
Beetree
Reservoir
Mills River
Sales to Woodfin
and Weaverville
Flow Arc
Withdrawal
Wastewater
Sales/EmergencyNatural Inflow
Legend:
Junction
Demand
Reservoir
Asheville
Demand
French Broad Basin -Brevard
•Primary Source –Catheys Creek
•Annual Average Demand = 1.1 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 2.6 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐Flow at raw intake < 1700 GPM (3.78 cfs) for 7 consecutive days
•10% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐Flow at raw intake < 1500 GPM (3.34 cfs) for 7 consecutive days
•20% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐Flow at raw intake < 1300 GPM (2.90 cfs) for 7 consecutive days
•30% demand reduction
29
French Broad Basin -Hendersonville
•Primary Sources –Mills R intake, Bradley Creek (Bradley Creek Reservoir) and NF Mills River (Hendersonville Reservoir)
–0.8 cfs min flow requirement from both reservoirs
–NOTE: it was indicated at the meeting that 0.8 cfs was a typo in some documents; the actually requirement is 8 cfs. This, along with some other modifications to the schematic/operations, will be incorporated into the final model•Annual Average Demand = 7.1 MGD•Treatment Capacity = 12.0 MGD•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐USGS Mills River is between 25 –32.5 percentile of historical annual mean stream flow for 7 consecutive days
–Level 2A ‐‐USGS Mills River is between 19 –24.5 percentile of historical annual mean stream flow for 7 consecutive days
•20% demand reduction
–Level 2B ‐‐USGS Mills River is between 11.5 –14.5 percentile of historical annual mean stream flow for 7 consecutive days
•30% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐USGS Mills River is <11 percentile of historical annual mean stream flow for 7 consecutive days
•30% demand reduction
30
French Broad Basin -Woodfin
•Primary Source –Sugar Camp Fork
•Annual Average Demand = 0.96 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 1.0 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐District’s reservoir 7 ft below spillway OR Total rainfall in the preceding
12 months is <= 35 in (75% of the area’s average annual rainfall)
•5% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐District’s reservoir 12 ft below spillway OR Total rainfall in the preceding
12 months is <= 28 in (75% of the area’s average annual rainfall)
•10% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐District’s reservoir 18 ft below spillway OR Total rainfall in the preceding
12 months is <= 35 in (75% of the area’s average annual rainfall)
•25% demand reduction
31
French Broad Basin -Weaverville
•Primary Source –Ivy River
•Annual Average Demand = 0.7 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 1.5 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐Average daily use exceeds 80% of total production capacity for 7
consecutive days
–Level 2 ‐‐Average daily use exceeds 90% of total production capacity for 7
consecutive days
–Level 3 ‐‐Average daily use exceeds 95% of total production capacity for 7
consecutive days
32
French Broad Basin –Mars Hill
•Primary Source –Big Laurel Creek (Poplar Cove Reservoir)
•Annual Average Demand = 0.3 MGD
•Treatment Capacity = 0.8 MGD
•Drought Plan
–Level 1 ‐‐Reservoir 2 ft below full (<90% usable storage)
•5% demand reduction
–Level 2 ‐‐Reservoir 3 ft below full (<85% usable storage)
•10% demand reduction
–Level 3 ‐‐Reservoir 5 ft below full (<70% usable storage)
•20% demand reduction
–Level 4 ‐‐Reservoir 6 ft below full (<60% usable storage)
•25% demand reduction
–Level 5 ‐‐Reservoir 10 ft below full (<40% usable storage)
•30% demand reduction
33
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Brevard Weaverville Woodfin Asheville Hendersonville Mars Hill
Upper French Broad Basin –Demand Patterns
34
Month Fraction of Annual Demand
Asheville Brevard Hendersonville Woodfin Weaverville Mars Hill
Jan 0.97 0.95 0.52 1.01 0.96 1.06
Feb 0.97 0.96 0.50 1.00 0.97 1.12
Mar 0.96 0.96 0.46 0.98 0.96 1.04
Apr 0.98 0.97 0.49 1.00 0.97 1.01
May 1.01 1.00 0.46 0.99 1.04 0.91
Jun 1.05 1.01 0.41 1.00 1.08 0.89
Jul 1.05 1.06 0.45 0.97 1.05 0.91
Aug 1.03 1.02 0.42 0.99 1.04 0.99
Sep 1.03 1.05 0.40 1.01 1.03 1.06
Oct 1.01 1.05 0.43 0.99 1.02 1.02
Nov 0.98 1.01 0.45 1.03 0.94 1.02
Dec 0.96 0.96 0.50 1.04 0.94 0.97
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0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
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Brevard Asheville Hendersonville Mars Hill Woodfin
Upper French Broad Basin –Wastewater Patterns
35
Month Fraction of Monthly Demand
Asheville Brevard Hendersonville Woodfin Mars Hill
Jan 1.15 1.54 0.52 0.01 0.91
Feb 1.16 1.46 0.50 0.01 0.87
Mar 1.07 1.26 0.46 0.02 0.88
Apr 1.17 1.48 0.49 0.02 1.00
May 1.12 1.23 0.46 0.02 0.88
Jun 0.95 1.09 0.41 0.02 0.85
Jul 1.08 1.19 0.45 0.03 0.92
Aug 0.94 1.14 0.42 0.04 0.83
Sep 0.93 0.97 0.40 0.03 0.84
Oct 1.00 1.14 0.43 0.03 0.84
Nov 1.12 1.17 0.45 0.02 0.84
Dec 1.16 1.51 0.50 0.02 0.95
Additional Basin Wastewater Returns
36
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1.00
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1.60
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Newland WWTP Transylvania Utilities Inc - Connestee Falls WWTP #1 Rosman Bakersville
Month Fraction of Annual Discharge
Newland Connestee Falls Rosman Bakersville
Jan 1.06 0.97 1.21 1.21
Feb 1.04 0.89 1.18 0.90
Mar 0.92 0.89 1.04 0.84
Apr 1.18 1.03 1.33 1.07
May 1.22 1.05 0.96 1.19
Jun 0.93 1.05 0.76 0.93
Jul 1.20 1.10 0.88 1.04
Aug 0.76 1.05 0.99 0.94
Sep 0.77 0.92 0.78 0.88
Oct 1.02 1.05 0.78 0.97
Nov 0.88 1.00 1.00 1.02
Dec 1.02 1.01 1.08 1.03
2013-17
Average
Annual
Discharge (MGD)
0.09 0.20 0.07 0.06
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
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Blue Ridge Paper Products Inc - Canton Mill Cantrell Creek Trout Farm
Glady Fork Trout Hatchery Shadow Creek Trout Farm
Bobby N. Setzer State Fish Hatchery
Basin Agricultural Withdrawal Patterns
37
Month Fraction of Annual Demand
Canton
Mill
Glady
Fork
Bobby N.
Setzer
Cantrell
Creek
Shadow
Creek
Jan 0.97 1.00 1.06 1.00 1.22
Feb 0.97 0.99 1.05 0.99 1.32
Mar 1.01 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.22
Apr 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25
May 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.03
Jun 1.05 1.00 1.06 1.00 0.73
Jul 1.06 1.00 1.04 1.00 0.69
Aug 0.95 1.00 0.97 1.00 0.57
Sep 1.00 1.00 0.88 1.00 0.59
Oct 1.01 1.00 0.94 1.00 0.91
Nov 0.96 1.00 0.93 1.00 1.25
Dec 1.01 1.00 1.08 1.00 1.22
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Bobby N. Setzer State Fish Hatchery Shadow Creek Trout FarmGlady Fork Trout Hatchery Cantrell Creek Trout FarmBlue Ridge Paper Products Inc - Canton Mill
Basin Industrial and Hatchery Wastewater Patterns
38
Month Fraction of Monthly Demand
Canton
Mill
Glady
Fork
Bobby N.
Setzer
Cantrell
Creek
Shadow
Creek
Jan 0.87 1.26 1.00 1.03 1.00
Feb 0.84 1.27 1.00 0.95 1.01
Mar 0.80 1.26 1.00 1.03 1.00
Apr 0.81 1.26 1.00 1.00 1.00
May 0.80 1.26 1.00 1.03 1.00
Jun 0.78 1.26 1.00 1.00 1.00
Jul 0.78 1.26 1.00 1.03 1.00
Aug 0.86 1.26 1.00 1.03 1.00
Sep 0.82 1.26 1.00 1.00 1.00
Oct 0.81 1.26 1.00 1.03 1.00
Nov 0.85 1.26 1.00 1.00 1.00
Dec 0.83 1.26 1.00 1.03 1.00
0.00
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0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
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Pine Mountain Quartz/Feldspar Facility Red Hill Facility
Schoolhouse Quartz Facility The Feldspar Corporation Crystal Facility
BV Hendrick Gravel
Basin Industrial Withdrawal Patterns
39
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1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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MonthCrystal Facility Pine Mountain Quartz/Feldspar Facility
Red Hill Facility Schoolhouse Quartz Facility The Feldspar Corporation
GE Lighting Solutions, LLC Silver Line Plastics Corporation Clement Pappas Plant
Basin Industrial Wastewater Patterns
40
Typical Model Output
•Flow in the river
•Storage and elevation at reservoirs
•Derived attributes
–Frequency and duration of drought plan activation
–Frequency and duration of transfer / sales
–Environmental / instream flow statistics
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Overview of Preliminary Basecase Results
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•Shown live from the model in training
Next steps
•Finalize model operations based on feedback from meeting
•Setup NC DWR server and install model
•Documentation
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