20020672 Ver 3_Agency Meeting - July 18 DRAFT MINUTES_20120904

Carpenter,Kristi
From:Karoly, Cyndi
Sent:Tuesday, September 04, 2012 4:27 PM
To:Chapman, Amy
Subject:FW: Monroe Connector/Bypass (R-3329/R-2559) -- Agency Meeting - July 18 DRAFT
MINUTES

From: Alavi, J S
Sent: Tuesday, August 07, 2012 1:38 PM
To: Mellor, Colin; Chris Militscher; Shumate, Christy
Cc: Johnson, Alan; Simes, Amy; Blackburn, Barney R; Moose, Barry S; Carl Gibilaro; Dagnino, Carla S; Karoly, Cyndi;
Wainwright, David; Lewis, Ed F; Lusk, Elizabeth L; [e-mail]; '[e-mail]'; Thorpe, Gregory J;
Nelson, Jane C; Gilstrap, Jesse W; Harris, Jennifer; '[e-mail]'; Hamidi, K. Zak; Gettier, Lawrence;
Parkins, Lorna; Thompson, Larry B; '[e-mail]'; Chambers, Marla J; Clawson, Marshall W; Watson,
Malcolm C; Staley, Mark K; Wilkins, Ronald B; Gledhill-earley, Renee; Baucom, Richard W; '[e-mail]';
'[e-mail]'; Gurganus, Stephen J (Steve) - HEU; Slusser, Scott ([e-mail]); Franklin,
Spencer T; [e-mail]; Mcfadden, Timothy T; [e-mail]; Tina Swiezy ([e-mail]); Fischer,
Kevin
Subject: RE: Monroe Connector/Bypass (R-3329/R-2559) -- Agency Meeting - July 18 DRAFT MINUTES

Hi Chris,

I’ll answer question #1.

The future projections will be done in 5-year increments. However, to develop those projections, the
consultant (Stephen Appold with UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School) will spend much effort
analyzing the effects of the recession, which followed the very high growth period beforehand. Land
use data for any off year (2011, 2012, 2016, etc.) will be interpolated using the latest approved land
use data set and Steve's 5 year projections.

Dr. Appold’s methodology is very solid. It has been reviewed by the Metrolina Regional Model team
members and approved by the executive committee. If you would like to review the methodology, we
will be happy to provide you with the contract and the proposal for this task.

Thanks, Jamal

Jamal S. Alavi, PE, CPM
Transportation Engineering Manager
Metrolina Planning Group
Transportation Planning Branch, NCDOT
1554 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, NC 27699
Tel: [phone]
http://www.ncdot.org/doh/preconstruct/tpb/

From: Mellor, Colin
Sent: Monday, August 06, 2012 8:48 AM
To: Chris Militscher; Shumate, Christy
1

Cc: Johnson, Alan; Simes, Amy; Blackburn, Barney R; Moose, Barry S; Carl Gibilaro; Dagnino, Carla S; Karoly, Cyndi;
Wainwright, David; Lewis, Ed F; Lusk, Elizabeth L; [e-mail]; '[e-mail]'; Thorpe, Gregory J;
Alavi, J S; Nelson, Jane C; Gilstrap, Jesse W; Harris, Jennifer; '[e-mail]'; Hamidi, K. Zak; Gettier,
Lawrence; Parkins, Lorna; Thompson, Larry B; '[e-mail]'; Chambers, Marla J; Clawson, Marshall W;
Watson, Malcolm C; Staley, Mark K; Wilkins, Ronald B; Gledhill-earley, Renee; Baucom, Richard W;
'[e-mail]'; '[e-mail]'; Gurganus, Stephen J (Steve) - HEU; Slusser, Scott
([e-mail]); Franklin, Spencer T; [e-mail]; Mcfadden, Timothy T; [e-mail]; Tina
Swiezy ([e-mail]); Fischer, Kevin
Subject: RE: Monroe Connector/Bypass (R-3329/R-2559) -- Agency Meeting - July 18 DRAFT MINUTES

Chris,

I can answer question #2 and the answer is yes. Yes - updates to the ICE have the POTENTIAL to affect future land use
projections and therefore may affect the ICI analysis. When we have re-scrutinized all the ICE input we will definitely re-
evaluate the water quality model.

Colin

------------
Colin Mellor
NCDOT - PDEA, Natural Environment Section
[phone]

From: Chris Militscher \[mailto:[e-mail]\]
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2012 11:56 AM
To: Shumate, Christy
Cc: Johnson, Alan; Simes, Amy; Blackburn, Barney R; Moose, Barry S; Carl Gibilaro; Dagnino, Carla S; Mellor, Colin;
Karoly, Cyndi; Wainwright, David; Lewis, Ed F; Lusk, Elizabeth L; [e-mail]; '[e-mail]'; Thorpe,
Gregory J; Alavi, J S; Nelson, Jane C; Gilstrap, Jesse W; Harris, Jennifer; '[e-mail]'; Hamidi, K. Zak;
Gettier, Lawrence; Parkins, Lorna; Thompson, Larry B; '[e-mail]'; Chambers, Marla J; Clawson, Marshall
W; Watson, Malcolm C; Staley, Mark K; Wilkins, Ronald B; Gledhill-earley, Renee; Baucom, Richard W;
'[e-mail]'; '[e-mail]'; Gurganus, Stephen J (Steve) - HEU; Slusser, Scott
([e-mail]); Franklin, Spencer T; [e-mail]; Mcfadden, Timothy T; [e-mail]; Tina
Swiezy ([e-mail]); Fischer, Kevin
Subject: RE: Monroe Connector/Bypass (R-3329/R-2559) -- Agency Meeting - July 18 DRAFT MINUTES

Christie: Thanks for the additional information. I do not have any specific comments on the Baker
presentation but I did have two potentially related questions:

1. Do you know if MUMPO is planning to look at population and traffic growth projections in their future
updated LRTP in smaller (less than 5 year) time increments (e.g., "pre-2009 recession and post-
recession)?

2. Are you planning to internally re-evalaute the findings from the ICI Water Quality Analysis that was
provided to some of the agencies? My reason for asking is that I thought that the ICE findings can
potentially shape the transportation agencies' assumptions used in an ICI study. It may not, but I cannot
recall if there is a connection between the two types of analyses.

From Baker presentation:


Removal of Bypass results in minor changes to travel times and composite scores 21 (of 256) TAZs increase travel time


by more than 1 minute 14 TAZs see 1% or more change in composite score Average Composite Score change is 0.21%

Still assessing the overall implications to ICE Report

Maximum Composite Score change is 3.9%

Thanks again.

2

-----"Shumate, Christy" <[e-mail]> wrote: -----
To: Chris Militscher/R4/USEPA/US@EPA
From: "Shumate, Christy" <[e-mail]>
Date: 08/03/2012 10:47AM
Cc: "Johnson, Alan" <[e-mail]>, "Simes, Amy" <[e-mail]>, "Blackburn,
Barney R" <[e-mail]>, "Moose, Barry S" <[e-mail]>, Carl Gibilaro
<[e-mail]>, "Dagnino, Carla S" <[e-mail]>, "Mellor, Colin"
<[e-mail]>, "Karoly, Cyndi" <[e-mail]>, "Wainwright, David"
<[e-mail]>, "Lewis, Ed F" <[e-mail]>, "Lusk, Elizabeth L"
<[e-mail]>, "[e-mail]" <[e-mail]>, "'[e-mail]'"
<[e-mail]>, "Thorpe, Gregory J" <[e-mail]>, "Alavi, J S" <[e-mail]>,
"Nelson, Jane C" <[e-mail]>, "Gilstrap, Jesse W" <[e-mail]>, "Harris, Jennifer"
<[e-mail]>, "'[e-mail]'" <[e-mail]>, "Hamidi, K. Zak"
<[e-mail]>, "Gettier, Lawrence" <[e-mail]>, "Parkins, Lorna"
<[e-mail]>, "Thompson, Larry B" <[e-mail]>,
"'[e-mail]'" <[e-mail]>, "Chambers, Marla J"
<[e-mail]>, "Clawson, Marshall W" <[e-mail]>, "Watson, Malcolm C"
<[e-mail]>, "Staley, Mark K" <[e-mail]>, "Wilkins, Ronald B"
<[e-mail]>, "Gledhill-earley, Renee" <[e-mail]>, "Baucom, Richard
W" <[e-mail]>, "'[e-mail]'" <[e-mail]>,
"'[e-mail]'" <[e-mail]>, "Gurganus, Stephen J (Steve)
- HEU" <[e-mail]>, "Slusser, Scott ([e-mail])" <[e-mail]>,
"Franklin, Spencer T" <[e-mail]>, "[e-mail]" <[e-mail]>,
"Mcfadden, Timothy T" <[e-mail]>, "[e-mail]" <[e-mail]>, "Tina
Swiezy ([e-mail])" <[e-mail]>, "Fischer, Kevin" <[e-mail]>
Subject: RE: Monroe Connector/Bypass (R-3329/R-2559) -- Agency Meeting - July 18 DRAFT MINUTES

Chris,

We will clarify this in the minutes. The 2003/2004 socioeconomic forecasts are forecasts of future population and
employment (year 2030) developed by MUMPO for use in their long range planning and travel demand modeling. These
are the forecasts that we used in the indirect and cumulative effects analysis to represent the future No-Build
condition. MUMPO is currently updating their long range transportation plan and associated socioeconomic projects;
however, these will not be available for at least nine months and likely a year. Therefore, the 2003/2004 projections are
still the best available forecast data that has been reviewed and approved by regional leaders. We are still investigating
options for other socioeconomic forecasts that may inform any update to the ICE and if you have any recommendations

we will gladly look into those.

Attached is a pdf of the presentation made at the agency meeting that explains the data and methodology used in the
ICE study. We would be happy to review the presentation with you via conference call or answer any questions you

have.

Thanks,

Christy

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From: Chris Militscher \[mailto:[e-mail]\]
Sent: Wednesday, August 01, 2012 1:16 PM
To: Shumate, Christy
Cc: Johnson, Alan; Simes, Amy; Blackburn, Barney R; Moose, Barry S; Carl Gibilaro; Dagnino, Carla S; Mellor, Colin;
Karoly, Cyndi; Wainwright, David; Lewis, Ed F; Lusk, Elizabeth L; [e-mail]; '[e-mail]'; Thorpe,
Gregory J; Alavi, J S; Nelson, Jane C; Gilstrap, Jesse W; Harris, Jennifer; '[e-mail]'; Hamidi, K. Zak;
Gettier, Lawrence; Parkins, Lorna; Thompson, Larry B; '[e-mail]'; Chambers, Marla J; Clawson, Marshall
W; Watson, Malcolm C; Staley, Mark K; Wilkins, Ronald B; Gledhill-earley, Renee; Baucom, Richard W;
'[e-mail]'; '[e-mail]'; Gurganus, Stephen J (Steve) - HEU; Slusser, Scott
([e-mail]); Franklin, Spencer T; [e-mail]; Mcfadden, Timothy T; [e-mail]; Tina
Swiezy ([e-mail]); Fischer, Kevin

Subject: Re: Monroe Connector/Bypass (R-3329/R-2559) -- Agency Meeting - July 18 DRAFT MINUTES

Christie: I read in the meeting minutes that only 2003-2004 socioeconomic data is available. Maybe I have confused

myself on this issue because the 2010 U.S. Census is completed.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/37000.html

Thanks.

Email correspondence to and from this sender is subject to the N.C. Public Records Law and may be disclosed to third parties.

\[attachment "Baker Presentation for Agency Meeting_7_18_12.pdf" removed by Chris
Militscher/R4/USEPA/US\]
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