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Home My WebLink AboutRTI_WaterFALL_Michelle_CutrofelloRTI International RTI International is a trade name of Research Triangle Institute.www.rti.org WaterFALL: Watershed Flow and ALLocation Model August 16, 2011 Michele Cutrofello & Bob Dykes Development Team: Jay Rineer, Fekadu Moreda, Brandon Bergenroth RTI International 2 Oh No, Not Another Model! Characterization of unaltered flow conditions is a key step in the ELOHA process Need to characterize unaltered flows at multiple geographic scales River/stream system Defined stream/river reach Defined high value habitats or benthic monitoring sites Use of stream gage data to infer unaltered flow conditions has several inherent limitations Time period over which un-gaged data are available. Spatial distribution of gages Hydrologic complexity makes data extrapolation difficult RTI International 3 WaterFALL™ Design Objectives 1.Flexible hydrologic modeling platform to support multiple applications: Water basin allocation planning, analysis and permitting support Climate change vulnerability/adaptation assessment Ecological flow regime development 2.Provide “on demand” results Facilitate “what if?” analysis 3.Scalable 4.Portable 5.Incorporate state-of-the-art information technology RTI International 4 GWLF WaterFALL™: Watershed Flow and ALLocation Model GWLF Input Data Are Pre-indexed to Each NHDPlus Catchment: Precipitation Temperature Land cover Soils Topography Hydrologic parameters Other RTI International 5 Live Demonstration of Web Interface RTI International 6 Model Inputs & Framework Streamlined approach for model parameterization and application Data NHDPlus catchment characteristics (1:100,000 scale) SSURGO soils data NLCD land use data NCDC archive and PRISM-derived daily precipitation and temperature data NOAA grid based hydrologic parameters (e.g., recession coefficients) Generated Look Up Tables (LUT) for related data elements (e.g., Curve Number, ET cover factor, etc.) Model Enhancements Application of an RTI-designed lag-routing method from one catchment to another allows individual GWLF application at each small catchment to link together to form a pseudo-distributed watershed model Allow for climate change scenarios Allow for land use change scenarios Allow users to assess changes in growing season and channel characteristics RTI International 7 Data Processing: Overlay and Aggregation Catchment polygons (jagged orange lines) and their NLCD 2001 values (points) intersected with SSURGO (smooth purple lines) NLCD2001 MUKEY Area (m2) Weighting Factor SSURGO KFFACT 1723038 2700 0.167 0.047 1723108 13500 0.833 0.233 Total:16200 Average:0.28 1723034 900 0.1 0.024 1723108 8100 0.9 0.252 Total:9000 Average:0.28 1723034 17100 0.500 0.121 1723038 9000 0.263 0.074 1723108 8100 0.237 0.066 Total:34200 Average:0.26 1723034 900 0.333 0.081 1723108 1800 0.667 0.187 Total:2700 Average:0.27 42 82 90 95 RTI International 8 NHDPlus Catchments in the Upper Neuse River HUC8 03020201 Using a HUC8-averaged data set: 7.48 mm (or 7480 mm *1000) Using Durham NCDC COOP Station: 5.08 mm (or 5080 mm *1000) 4km-Gridded Precipitation on 11/11/02 Thiessen Polygon Boundaries Defining COOP Station Coverage RTI International 9 Live Demonstration of Web Interface RTI International 10 Sample Exported Results from WaterFALL™ RTI International 11 Calibration Parameters Parameters Description Source & Estimation Method Calibration Method Available Soil water Capacity This parameter triggers the start of percolation Estimated by National Weather Service compilation of parameters for Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model; Based on SSURGO and NLCD data CURRENT:Manual adjustment of NWS values over study region using multiplication factors. FUTURE: Automated calibration of individual catchment values or regional values using software (PEST). Recession Coefficient Base flow coefficient controls the rate of ground water flow from the saturated storage Seepage Coefficient Seepage parameter controls the rate of seepage to the deep storage. Best professional judgment estimate RTI International 12 Neuse River Calibration Calibration at 4 gages within larger Neuse Watershed Used pre-regulated period of 1972-1976 (before Falls Lake began filling in Upper Neuse) Outlet COMID (#catchments) USGS Gage Station Name Regulations of flows Lat Long Drainage Area (mi2) 8786017 (2438)02087500 Neuse River near Clayton, NC Regulated by Falls Reservoir 35.647 -78.405 1150 8782653 (1594)02087183 Neuse River Near Falls, NC Flow is regulated by Falls Dam 35.940 -78.581 771 8778363 (355)02085500 Flat River at Bahama, NC Minor regulation at low flow 36.183 -78.879 149 8778383 (213)02085070 Eno River near Durham, NC Some regulation during periods of low flow caused by mill 600 ft upstream 36.072 -78.908 141 RTI International 13 Multi-basin Calibration & Results RTI International 14 RTI International 15 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v 1973 1974 1975 1976 Fl o w ( c f s ) Calibration Results for Neuse River at Clayton, NC USGS Monthly Average WaterFALL Monthly Average Overall Simulation Volume Error: 5% Nash-Sutcliffe (daily flows): 0.53 RTI International 16 Providing a Hydrologic Foundation for Ecological Flow Determination Desired foundation components of the ELOHA framework: Regional database Daily or monthly streamflow for Baseline/Unaltered Current Future Common time period of 20 years or more Enough spatial detail to resolve reaches with different characteristics and small tributaries RTI International 17 Hydrology Detail –The Haw River Example Flow: 1556 cfs Velocity: 0.9 ft/s Depth: 9.6 ft Flow: 672 cfs Velocity: 0.7 ft/s Depth: 7.1 ft Flow: 570 cfs Velocity: 0.5 ft/s Depth: 10.0 ft Flow: 179 cfs Velocity: 0.3 ft/s Depth: 7.5 ft On February 7th, 2003: Flow: 597 cfs Velocity: 0.3 ft/s Depth: 15.0 ft Flow: 2953 cfs Velocity: 0.4 ft/s Depth: 28.9 ft RTI International 18 Ecological Detail –Benthos Samples in the Upper Neuse RTI International 19 NC Benthos Monitoring Locations since 1978 RTI International 20 Hydrologic Analysis for Ecological Flows Employ TNC’s Index of Hydrologic Alteration Software Compare modeled, natural flow to monitored, altered flows Numerous comparison points: 1-, 3-, 7-day minimum/maximum flow Date of minimum/maximum flow Low/high pulse count, duration, and thresholds WaterFALL allows specification of these comparison points (i.e., ecological monitoring locations) at any and all reaches within the stream Exported time series from WaterFALL can easily be imported into IHA Software or analyzed on its own RTI International 21 Hydrologic Foundation Example: Haw River Regulation by Stony Creek Reservoir and withdrawals and discharges for human use and consumption RTI International 22 Hydrologic Foundation Example: Haw River 7-day Minimum Flow (cfs) 78.6 62.6 High Flow Duration/ Frequency (days) 5.25 / 9.5 2.5 / 19.5 RTI International 23 Hydrologic Foundation Example 2: Eno River RTI International 24 French Broad River: Unaltered, Reference Site During the 2007 drought, precipitation was 67% of the long-term average and temperature increase was 1.1°F. RTI International 25 Hydrologic Alteration Due to Climate Change RTI International 26 Final Summary WaterFALL provides Easy navigation and definition of watershed of interest at NHDPlus scale (1:100,000) Simulation throughout North Carolina Daily streamflow, velocity, and depth estimates for all NHDPlus catchments Natural streamflow estimates with opportunity to add human influences on system to estimate altered flows Climate and land use change scenario analysis RTI International 27 Discussion & Questions? Please visit https://waterfall.rti.org for up to date information on the model and its applications