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Home My WebLink AboutFSU-WR-Planning-2011-02-04NC Water Resources Planning April 4, 2011 Tom Fransen North Carolina Division of Water Resources 1 1/18/2011 Slide - 2 “Water links us to our neighbor in a way more profound and complex than any other.“ -John Thorson Aquatic Habitat Riparian Habitat Pollution Dilution Water Supply Power Generation Recreation We expect a lot from our river basins. 3 4 2010 Ratified Bills Improve River Basin Modeling –H1743 Specifies what will be included in a basin model and models will be approved by the EMC. Water Infrastructure Information Needs –H1746 Improve the collection and utilization of water and wastewater infrastructure information. Water Supply System Capacity Planning –H1747 Revise LWSP when demand exceeds 80% of supply to show how future needs will be met. Amend WQ/IBT Laws –H1765 Applicants pay the notification costs and coastal “isolated river basins” follow the old .22I process until 7/1/2020. 5 Will we have enough water to meet the needs of a growing population? NC water use excluding power generation 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Po p u l a t i o n / 1 , 0 0 0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 MG D 6 Drought Critical Period Summer of 2002 Under global warming drought could overtake much of the world by 2030. UCAR 10/19/2010 7 Current Drought Conditions 2/1/2011 Drought Monitor 2/3/2011 7-Day Average Streamflow What North Carolina Is Doing To Provide Water Supplies For Future Needs. Focus 3 Major Areas Data for Water Management Water Supply Planning Regulation 9 10 Surface Water Gaging Ground Water Monitoring Gage downstream of Jordan Dam in operation Water Systems Slide - 11 Cape Fear Water Withdrawals http://www.ncwater.org/Water_Withdrawals/ 12 Cape Fear Water Withdrawals 13 Includes Thermal Electric Power Without Thermal Electric Power What North Carolina Needs to Do to Provide Water Supplies for Future Needs. Focus 3 Major Areas Data for Water Management Water Supply Planning Regulation 14 Value of Regional Water Supply Planning Total savings per mgd Annual Net benefit per household B/C Ratio Atlanta $1.48 $3.83 2.0 Boston $3.45 $28.92 1.8 Seattle $1.06 $6.95 2.1 Phoenix $1.76 $10.32 4.3 Houston $10.33 $14.44 1.7 Median $1.76 $10.32 2.0 15 Water Resources Planning & Basin Modeling Water Resources Planning (No EMC Approval) River Basin Modeling (EMC Approval) 1/18/2011 Slide - 16 Modeling and Planning Can Help Prevent This … If Instream Flows and Uses are Included in the Equation 17 Slide - 18 Modeling Basics Hydrologic Cycle 19 •Is there enough water to sustain expected uses now and in the future? •DWR does consider ecologic flows to be part of “expected uses”. •Where, when and for how long could we expect to experience shortages? Questions River Basin Model Basics Water Balance Model Inflow – Outflow = Change in Storage Model is like a checkbook Inflow = Salary Outflow = Expenses Storage = Bank Account The complexity is developing the data and equations to describe the 3 variables. Slide - 20 What is a River Basin Hydrologic Model? "Unimpaired" Historical Streamflows Alternative Streamflows Climate Change Landuse Changes Altered Baseflows Inflows Reservoir Operations Permitted Minimum Flows Drought Plans Operation Guidelines Current and Planned Local Water Supply Plans Self-Supplied Industries Agricultural Other Registered Withdrawers Changes in demand resulting from climate change. Water Use Historical and Projected Water Supply Ecological Flows Recreation Power Production Evaluation Criteria Is there enough water to sustain expected current and future uses? Hydrologic Model Water Resources Plan Hydrologic Stationarity Key Assumption – The future will be statistically indistinguishable from the past. Is stationarity dead? Climate change and coping with non- stationarity in water and ecosystem management. 23 OASIS’ Flexibility In Simulating Reservoir Operations Is One Of The Reasons We Selected It As Our Preferred Model. Hydrologic River Basin Modeling Software OASIS – A modeling program for simulating water supply systems. Basin Modeling Limits Basin Model is not a water quality model. OASIS can be linked to a water quality model. The outputs can be used to define boundary conditions to a water quality model. The OASIS general is not the model for flood studies. OASIS does use channel geometry which is needed to flood stages associated with flooding events. OASIS has been successfully on the Lower Roanoke for flood plain flooding. The OASIS does not simulate ground water. OASIS can be linked to a ground water model. The outputs can be used to define boundary conditions to a ground water model. Slide - 24 Slide - 25 Nodes And Arcs Nodes are locations of interestReservoirs DemandsJunctions Arcs represent flow between nodesStream reaches Canalspipelines Groundwater seepageEtc. Water Demands • Ann Ave Use / Seasonal Patterns Annual Average Use Seasonal Use Patterns Raleigh's Modeled Demands 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MG D 2008monthly 2030monthly 2050monthly 2008average 2030average 2050average Slide - 26 Impacts to reservoir water levels Data + Modeling = Management One of the most sophisticated programs in SE. Accomplished with a minimal amount of resources. NC – GA Model Comparison What North Carolina Needs to Do to Provide Water Supplies for Future Needs. Focus 3 Major Areas Data for Water Management Water Supply Planning Regulation 30 What if there is not enough water? Projected growth greatly exceeds available supply. Opportunity for local solutions: New sources, interconnections, IBTs, etc… One regulatory option currently available: EMC designates area a “Capacity Use Area” One area in State already designated as CUA: 15 Counties in Central Coastal Plain CUA. NC Riparian Rights Riparian property owners have right to “reasonable use” of water. Can not adversely affect quantity or quality. Maintain instream flow at “reasonable” level. Impairment often a water quality issue. 32 The Water Use Act of 1967 G.S. 143-215.11 to .22 Phosphate mining in Beaufort County led to creation of the Water Use Act Reasonable regulation to conserve and maintain water resources so they can be used to the fullest extent possible Central Coastal Plain Capacity Use Area – The only CUA in the State. 33 Black Creek Aquifer in CUA Ground Water Levels Improvement What is an Interbasin Transfer? An interbasin transfer is the movement of surface water from one river basin into another. The purpose of the Interbasin Transfer Law is to take a pause to be sure it is good public policy before moving water from one river basin into another. The Interbasin Transfer Law does NOT prohibit transfers. 35 37 Jordan Lake Overview 38 Jordan Lake WS Allocation Round 4 Allocation Process Three Simultaneous Tracks HYDROLOGIC MODEL WATER SUPPLY PLAN JORDAN APPLICATIONS Addition Information Division’s Website -http://www.ncwater.org/ Today’s Presentation -http://www.ncwater.org/basins/ Data http://www.ncwater.org/wrisars/ Planning & Modeling http://www.ncwater.org/basins/Cape_Fear/ Regulation http://www.ncwater.org/Permits_and_Registration/Capacity_Use/ http://www.ncwater.org/Permits_and_Registration/Interbasin_Transfer/ Drought http://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/ http://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/weekly.php Contact Information Tom Fransen 919-715-0381 Tom.Fransen@ncdenr.gov www.ncwater.org Questions 40