20020672 Ver 3_Attachment 27 -TREDIS Model_20141124

How NCDOT us e s th e TREDIS t o Calculate Economic C o mpetitiveness in the Strategic
Prioritization Process
March 15, 2013
The economic competiveness "score" is calculated from a nationally recognized economic
impact model known as Transportation Economic Development Impact System (TREDIS) that
compares the increased , long term productivity an individual highway project brings within a
NCDOT highway division. The model compares the potential jobs created , wages increased,
and overall productivity or "gross domestic product" gained in an area resulting from the project
being constructed (for a 30 year period) compared to the current economic cond itions in that
area . The output of the percent change is translated into points used in the project score .
TREDIS results are highly dependent on the travel time savings created by a project and the
base conditions of the regional economy . NCDOT defines "regional economies" in their
ca lculations as the boundaries of the 14 highway divisions . TREDIS translates travel time
savings to the expected change in gross domestic product in the region . If the base conditions
of the region are weak (i.e ., high unemployment , low wages, unskilled labor force , etc .) and the
trave l time savings are great, the project score is high . The same project with similar travel time
savings constructed where the base conditions are strong will result in a lower economic
competitiveness score (compared to weak base conditions). TRED IS makes no distinction
between new location bypass projects and widening projects. In other words, the end result is
that TREDIS scores reflect that major, more costly , highway projects in rural areas will have a
greater impact in the rural economy compared to similar size highway projects in an urban,
vib rant economy.
This is one of the reasons that projects are scored within Divisions in an effort to better compare
effects of projects on the local economy. The economic competit ive factor is 10% of a project 's
overall score . The table below lists a sample of projects and their associated output from
TREDIS . The table shows how TREDIS output is sensitive to both travel time savings and the
region in wh ich the project is located .
I
Trav e l TR EDIS
I
Fin a l Tota l Tim e O utput NC DOT "sco re " in Project STIP# Div. Project Savings (%change adjustment P2 .0-(1 00 Cost (hrs for 30 in GDPw/ point ca p) years) Divis io n)
Daniel Boone U-2703 11 $209M 53,680,000 0.2784 % 278.4 100 Parkway
Shelby R-2707 12 $321M 102 ,288 ,000 0.2422% 242 .2 100 Bypass
1-40 Widening
between NC 4 $65M 6 ,241 ,000 0.0159 % 15 .9 15 .9 42 and NC
210
1-40 W iden ing
be tween US
70 Business l-5111BA 5 $66M 23 ,948 ,000 0 .0142% 14 .2 14.2
and US 70
Bypass
TREDIS also has the ability to score highway and non-highway projects such as new passenger
rail , freight rail , or new transit service .
Attachment 27