NC0031879_Staff Comments_19820521

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FRAMEWORK OF DECISION ANALYSIS
I. Problem Identification
a) clear basis established
b) context delineated
c) specific objectives established
d) measures of effectiveness established
II. Identification of Alternatives
a) exhaustive listing of various courses of action that
should be considered
b) availability of information
III. Risk Analysis
a) _model use or development
b) prediction of consequences
1) inclusion of uncertainty(error analysis)
2) probability analysis
3) utility analysis
4) value of further information
IV. Decision -making
a) trade-offs noted
b) preference for particular strategy

LAKE RHODHISS PROJECT CONCERNS
I. Problem Identification
a) objectives unclear
b) lack of measures of effectiveness
II. Modeling Requirements
a) appropriateness of Marlar and Kutzman(1980)
approach for model transformation
b) model resolution
III. Decision Analysis
a) inclusion of uncertainty
b) utility analysis

MODEL
i
State
Action
Physical
Indicator
Measurement of
Effectiveness
Scientific
Measurement
PROBAB
P
Measurement
of
Effectiveness
ILITY
8,a)
UTILITY
u (S )

BENEFIT ASSESSMENT
f (P)
u (P)
NB
E (NB) = >NBj(P)fj(P)

PROCEDURAL OUTLINE
I. Establish Objectives
a) measures of effectiveness ex. water clarity
b) policy or managerial constraints
II. Model Choice
a) procedure modifying Vollenweider model....verification?
b) Reckhow and Simpson(1980) model bias?
c) Wolf(1982) model developed for SouthEastern lakes
d) develop model equation using 1975 EPA data for Rhodhiss
lake,
P 1"3/1
Vs4a
III. Error Analysis
a) plot data
b) address assumption__violations
c) calculate mean phosphorus concentration and standard
error of the mean
d) calculate model error due to change in P
e) calculate total prediction error for predicted P
IV. Model Evaluation
a) associate P results with measures of effectiveness
b) calculate expected net benefits
V. Utility Analysis
a) assess values to net benefits
b) apply values to each alternative
VI. Decision
a) evaluate trade-offs
b) choose preferred strategy