20080868 Ver 2_Section I D - G Drought Storms Rainfall Discharge_20210701

Table I-C-1. Estimated historic and current drainage basin of each control and impact creek in the
study as described in CZR 2011 (PA2, Little Creek, Long Creek, Duck Creek, and DCUT19), in CZR
2017 (SCUT1 and Broomfield Swamp Creek), and in previous annual creeks reports (Jacks, Jacobs,
Drinkwater, Tooley, and Porter creeks, Huddles Cut, and DCUT11). Permitted impacts to all NCPC
creeks north of Highway 306 have been completed; after permitted impacts are completed in the
Bonnerton Tract, the mine will move into the South 33 Tract and Broomfield Swamp Creek will have
permitted basin reductions. (Estimate sources: USGS topoquads, LiDAR, USGS stream stats
https://streamstatus. usgs.gov/ss/)
Control creek
Drainage basin
Basin land use
Historic (ac)
Current (ac)
Reduction (%)
SCUT1
-
1,965
0
Agriculture
Little Creek
1,822
1,722
5
Agriculture
Long Creek
630
223
65
Natural vegetation
PA2
-
22
0
Natural vegetation
Duck Creek
3,118
3,118
0
Silviculture; agriculture
DCUT19
121
121
0
Agriculture
Impact creek
Broomfield Swamp Creek
-
1,946
0
Agriculture
Jacks Creek
645
150
77
Natural vegetation
Jacobs Creek
751
202
73
Natural vegetation
Drinkwater Creek
605
153
75
Natural vegetation
Tooley Creek
563
257
54
Natural vegetation
Huddles Cut
1,014
289
71
Natural vegetation
Porter Creek
3,745
840
78
Natural vegetation
DCUT11
166
81
51
Natural vegetation
Note: Due to heavy agricultural use and flat topography, SCUT1 and Broomfield Swamp Creek
historic basins have not been estimated and are presumed to not be significantly different than what
the USGS stream stats web tool calculated; CZR biologists verified flow direction in all contributory
ditches in both basins in 2017. PA2 was excavated from uplands between Jacobs and Drinkwater
creeks and therefore had no historic basin. Muddy Creek (control) is monitored only for fish/benthos
and sediment/water column metals; its basin is amongst the largest of the creeks in the study and
land use is predominantly silviculture and agriculture. Durham Creek (control) is monitored only for
depth and salinity at one location, has the largest basin, and land use is mixed between natural
vegetation, silviculture, agriculture, and other human development.
I-C-4

D. Drought
Drought conditions are monitored nationally by several indexes. The US Drought
Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu) provides a synthesis of multiple indices and impacts and
reflects the consensus of federal and academic scientists on regional conditions on a weekly
basis (updated each Thursday). Reported drought conditions in the study areas located on the
south and north sides of the Pamlico River were summarized for the years 2000-2005 and
2007-2020 (Table I-D1 . drought data begin in 2000). For study creeks on the south side of the
Pamlico River, 2002, 2007, and 2008 were the driest years reported, with 77, 79, and 81
percent of weeks with some drought classification. On the south side, years 2000, 2003, 2004,
and 2015 had normal conditions during those entire years (Table I-D1). The driest year
reported on the north side of the Pamlico River was 2011 when 28 weeks (54 percent) of the
year were assigned some drought classification (Duck Creek data include 2010 through 2020).
On the north side, 2015 and 2018 had the least amount of weeks with a drought status. While
there was some variation in annual patterns of rainfall or drought status between the two sides
of the river, when only the data years in common for both sides of the river are considered
(2010-2020), each side had an average of 41 weeks with no drought status. No years included
in the summary table have been considered in extreme or exceptional drought on either side of
the river.
I-D-1

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E. Extreme Events or Storms
Event dates, types, and descriptions of extreme events or storms in Beaufort County that
could have affected rainfall, hydrology, and/or salinity data collected during 1998-2005 and
2007-2020 were gathered from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA)
National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Web site (Table I-E1). Event types selected for Beaufort
County in the Storm Events Database included: Astronomical Low Tide, Blizzard, Coastal Flood,
Drought, Excessive Heat, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Flash Flood, Flood, Heavy Rain, Heavy
Snow, High Wind, Hurricane (Typhoon), Storm Surge/Tide, Strong Wind, Thunderstorm Wind,
Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, and Winter Storm. Event types were selected based on
likelihood of affect to rainfall, hydrology, and/or salinity data. Some events are not shown in the
table if they were repeat data. For example, if a Hurricane and a Storm Surge/Tide event were
on the same date, the Storm Surge/Tide event was left out of the table. Events that may have
been severe in other counties of North Carolina, but were minor in Beaufort County, are also not
shown.
Hurricanes and/or tropical storms were the events most likely to affect the data. Over
the years of the creeks study, there have been 11 hurricanes and eight tropical storms that have
affected the area. Hurricanes and tropical storms that switch categories are counted as one
event. Other extreme events reported over the years were heavy snow/winter storms, high
winds, flash flooding, and severe drought.
There were seven recorded extreme events in 2020. On 20 February a low pressure
system produced showers that changed to snow towards the evening in Beaufort County. The
amount of snow that fell was estimated to be 2 to 4 inches across Beaufort County.
Thunderstorms on 6 April, 18 April, 30 April, and 1 August produced damaging winds
throughout Beaufort County. The final event for 2020 was Hurricane Isaias which was rated a
tropical storm in Beaufort County. This storm brought winds up to 60 mph and 2.5 inches of
rain.
I-E-1

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I-E-2

Table I -El (continued).
Event Description
Wind gusts 50 to 72 mph.
Thunderstorm winds produced gusts up to 60 mph.
Several severe thunderstorms produced winds gusting from 50-90 mph.
total of 6 to 8 inches of rainfall.
Remnants of Tropical Storm Tammy.
Several storms produced large hail with wind gusts up to 60 mph.
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Several severe storms produced large hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph.
4 to 7 inches of snow.
Scattered thunderstorms produced wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Scattered thunderstorms produced wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Rainfall total 6 to 8 inches. Significant flooding in low lying areas and along small streams, especially in Washington.
Scattered thunderstorms produced wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Carolina. Several
across eastern North
largest tornado outbreaks ever observed
One of the
warning area.
had been well below normal.
had been well below normal.
A series of weak upper level disturbances produced wind gusts up to 60 mph. One small tornado was reported.
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I-E-3

Table I -El (continued).
Event Description
Several severe thunderstorms similar to a derecho produced hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph.
Several severe thunderstorms produced large hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Several thunderstorms produced wind gusts up to 60 mph.
A severe thunderstorm produced damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Snow mixed with freezing rain at times. Total snow accumulations were 3 to 5 inches across the county.
changed to rain.
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Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms crossed eastern
approached from the west. Heavy rain led to some flooding in Beaufort County.
and large hail.
Persistent showers and thunderstorms led to rainfall amounts of over 3 inches across central Beaufort County.
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I-E-4

Table I -El (continued).
Event Description
October 9th. Widespread
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Several severe thunderstorms resulted in wind gusts up to 63 mph.
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I-E-5

Table I -El (concluded).
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ted through the first half
fternoon hours, and I
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I-E-6

F. Rainfall
Monthly precipitation data were obtained from the Agricultural Applied Climate
Information System (AgACIS), which is a repository for data collected at stations in the National
Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (Coop) network supported by the
Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and National Water and Climate Center,
within the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)(http://agacis.rcc-acis.org/?fips=37013).
Monthly precipitation data from the Aurora 6 N station as provided by the USDA/NRCS/AgACIS
database are identified in Figure I-F1 and Table I-F1 for years during the course of the study,
1998-2005 and 2007-2020. The WETS 30t" and 70t" percentiles are from the 30-year period of
1981-2010.
The Aurora 6 N station is located and maintained in the vicinity of the PCS/Nutrien
administrative building and a small private runway along the south side of the Pamlico River,
about 6 miles north of Aurora. In addition to the Aurora 6 N station, there are six other rain
gauges associated with the creeks study that are monitored to provide more site and basin
specific data. Data from these six additional gauges are monitored by CZR and gaps from any
period of a non-functional gauge are supplemented with data from the next closest working
gauge. Measured onsite data from Aurora 6 N and the six additional sites represent raw
measured data and are often different than data found in the AgACIS online data used to
determine WETS percentiles. Data from onsite gauges are found in Table I-F2. Comparison of
the USDA/NRCS/AgACIS online data with the raw onsite data show total 2020 annual rainfall
for Aurora and raw measured data to be above the 70t" percentile. Online data show three
months of 2020 as above, two below, and seven within the 30th and 70t" percentiles, while raw
data show five months above, one below, and six within the 30t" and 70th percentiles (Table 1-
F2).
The rain gauges currently monitored by CZR were installed in 2010 (Tooley Creek),
2011 (PA2, Huddles Cut, Porter Creek, Duck Creek), in 2013 (DCUT19), and 2008 (SCUT1,
Broomfield Swamp Creek). Prior to 2019, the rain gauge for SCUT1 and Broomfield Swamp
Creek located at Bay City Farm was utilized for other projects. In 2020, the Huddles Cut rain
gauge was relocated to the ferry landing approximately 1,200 feet northeast of its previous
location. During the early years of the study, rainfall data at Jacks Creek, Tooley Creek, and
Huddles Cut were provided to CZR by Dr. Wayne Skaggs per the agency approved plan and
from CZR monitored gauges within Jacks Creek, Tooley Creek, and Huddles Cut used for the
wetland hydrology analysis. Prior to installation of rain gauges in other creeks, Aurora 6 N rain
data were used for rainfall and, after installation, were also used to supplement data gaps.
I-F-1

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Monthly Rainfall Totals with WETS percentiles for 1998-2020 at PCS Aurora Station 6 N
•
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• Total Monthly Rainfall —WETS 30 Percentile —WETS 70 Percentile
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• Total Monthly Rainfall — WETS 30 Percentile —WETS 70 Percentile
Figure 1-F1. Rainfall summary across years of creek study: monthly totals at PCS Aurora Station 6 N compared to 30-year WETS rainfall.
I-F-2

Rainfall (Inches)
Antecedent Precipitation vs Normal Range based on NOAA's Daily Global Historical Climatology Network
10-
h
4
n
Jan
2020
n
Fen
2020
Mat
2.02;0
n
Apr
2020
r
May
020
ur,
r
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
ti'
Aug
2020
n
Sep
2020
n
Oct
2020
— Daily Total
— 30-Day Rolling Total
30-Year Normal Range
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
Figura and tabkas mada by tha
Antecedent Precipitation Tool
Vnrsio 1 ,)
Wrttten by Jason O ten
U.S. Army Colos of Engineers
Start of Growing Season:
March 14
End of Growing Season'
November 24
Figure I-F2. Annual rainfall for 2020 Aurora 6N as determined by the USACE's Antecedent Precipitation Tool (APT) compared to preceding 30 years.
I-F-3

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I-F-4

Table I-F2.
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M V 1m IN V V V IMn (MO l°f)) CO (NO V (NO
(O 0 co
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C) 1� In
mom
C C C
mom
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Duck
Creek
Y
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Tooley Long
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m M 4 o V (OO
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3
Broomfield
Swamp SCUTa
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rn rn
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rn rn
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N
O O O O O O O O O O O
CNN
All Years
Min
Max
Average
Pre -Years (impact)
Min
Max
Average
Post- Years
Min
Max
Average
* Rainfall data from the closest alternative rain gauge is substituted in instances where the primary rain gauge is damaged or suspected of malfunction.
I-F-5

G. Tar River Discharge
The Tar River is approximately 215 miles long and travels generally in a southeast
direction where it ends in the Pamlico Sound estuary. Below the US Highway 17 Bridge in
Washington NC, the Tar River is called the Pamlico River.
The Tar River discharge is measured at a gauge station located in Greenville, NC,
approximately 35 miles north of PCS (Lat 35°37'00" Long 77°22'22"). Tar River discharge totals
were highest in 1999 and 2003 and 2020 had the third highest total discharge since 1998
(Figure I-G1). Median Tar River discharge in 2020 was the second -highest since 1998 and
mean Tar River discharge was the third -highest.
I-G-1

0
m
0
m
1
co
0
74000 ----
72000 =----
70000
68000 —
66000 -
64000 =
62000 =-
600 00--
58000
56000 =-
54000 --
52000
50000
48000 -
46000 -
44000 =
42000
40000 --
38000
36000
34000 --
32000
30000 =-
28000
26000
24000 =7
22000
20000 —
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
800a
6000
4000
2000 . 1
0
,I
Tar River Average Daily Discharge and PCS-Aurora Station 6N Daily Rainfall
(1998-2005 and 2007-2020)
■
,1
■ III 1 l
' 1.0111'1 II
Pr
No
monitoring
t occured in
1 2006
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CO Cr) N C'1 CO Cr) N CO CO 61 N CO CO 61 N COC7 r r N rfl m r N 111 CO r N In CO -a— N In m r r 0r4 r—O r4 r—Or �r—Or d-r-r r a]CVC)CO 0]N C` CO 6] N C`7 C001 N r0 C000 r r
r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r
PCS-Aurora 6N Rainfall Tar River Average Daily Discharge
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
10.0
00
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0-0
Rainfall (inches)
Figure I-G1. Average daily Tar River discharge at Greenville, NC and daily rainfall at PCS Aurora Station 6 N during the years of the creek study.
I-G-2