20080868 Ver 2_Section I D - G Drought Storms Rainfall Discharge 2021 PCS Creeks Report_20220605

D. Drought
Drought conditions are monitored nationally by several indexes. The US Drought Monitor
(http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu) provides a synthesis of multiple indices and impacts and reflects
the consensus of federal and academic scientists on regional conditions on a weekly basis
(updated each Thursday). Reported drought conditions in the study areas located on the south
and north sides of the Pamlico River were summarized for the years 2000-2005 and 2007-2021
(Table I-D1; drought data begin in 2000).
For study creeks on the south side of the Pamlico River, 2002, 2007, and 2008 were the
driest years reported, with 77, 79, and 81 percent of weeks with some drought classification. On
the south side, years 2000, 2003, 2004, and 2015 did not have any weeks with an assigned
drought status (Table I-D1). The driest year reported on the north side of the Pamlico River was
2011 when 28 weeks (54 percent) of the year was assigned some drought classification (Duck
Creek data include 2010 through 2021). On the north side, 2015 and 2018 had the least amount
of weeks with a drought status. While there was some variation in annual patterns of rainfall or
drought status between the two sides of the river, when only the data years in common for both
sides of the river are considered (2010-2021), each side had an average of 41 weeks with no
drought status. No years included in the summary table have been considered in extreme or
exceptional drought on either side of the river.
Both the north and the south sides of the Pamlico River experienced more weeks than average
with a drought classification in 2021. Both areas had 38 weeks with a drought classification, which
was 18 percent more than the average (20 weeks) on the north side of the river, and 9 percent
more than the average (29 weeks) on the south side of the river; indicating drier conditions than
the average. Both sides of the river also experienced 4 weeks with a "severe drought"
classification in 2021, and the last year to have a similar classification was in 2011.
I-D-1

a)
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0
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Percent of Weeks with
a Drought
Classification
O O N- O O N (3) CO N V (O U) M O O O N I- CO
LO I"- N- I N- CO V V LO V N N- N- N- CM
Cr)
N
N- V (0 M N O (3) N (3) O CO
C) (f) V N N- N- N- M
0
N
Exceptional
Drought (D4)
00000000000000000000000000000000
0 0
0
Extreme
Drought (D3)
00000000000000000000000000000000
0 0
0
Severe
Drought (D2)
O 00 I� 0 00 I� 0 0 0 00 00 O O O 0 V
NO
N- O O O O O O O O O V
Moderately Dry
(D1)
O N- NO 00 CO N N (`") V 8 00 00 0 0 0 000
10
(`") V N 00 00 00 0 0 CO
N
Abnormally Dry
(DO)
O N- (f) 0 0 (0 N- CO CO °' N-.7 CO I- 0 M LO N- 0) M CO
CO
N- N- N- N- N- (�') N- N- N- M CO
CO
No Drought
Status
U N N- U U V
N- N- N (() N CO (() V (Nf) V V LO V CO M
37
M N CO V V LO V V LO V CO M
41
N
O)
i
O N M V U)
O O O O O O
N N N N N N
I� CO (3) O N- N M V U) M CO (3) O ti
O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O
N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N
Average
O N- N M V U) (.0 CO (3) O
O O O O O O O O O O O O
N
Average
Location
O .c U
A p
D�
N -0 N
L 2( x
7
2 E 2 O
0 N 7 U 2
Q -C d C U
0
_CU
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NC
U N
7 -0
o () 2'
I-D-2

E. Extreme Events or Storms
The National Climate Data Center (NCDC) of NOAA maintains a database of extreme
storms or events (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/). Extreme storms and events are
categorized by county, date, type of event, along with a short description of the event. NCDC
data for Beaufort County was searched for the following event types: Astronomical Low Tide,
Blizzard, Coastal Flood, Drought, Excessive Heat, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Flash Flood, Flood,
Heavy Rain, Heavy Snow, High Wind, Hurricane (Typhoon), Storm Surge/Tide, Strong Wind,
Thunderstorm Wind, Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, and Winter Storm. All events noted
during the course of the creeks monitoring study are found in Table I -El. Event types were
selected based on likelihood to affect rainfall, hydrology, and/or salinity data. Some events are
not shown in the table if the effects were concordant; for example, if a Hurricane and a Storm
Surge/Tide event were on the same date, the event description was listed in the table once.
Events that may have been severe in other counties of North Carolina, but were minor in Beaufort
County, are also not shown. During the course of the study, hurricanes and/or tropical storms
were the most likely event types to affect parameters monitored for the creeks study.
In general, 2021 was a quiet year with only five extreme events noted in Beaufort County
on three different dates. Only two of these events were in the vicinity of the Aurora area, winter
weather on 28 January 2021 which resulted in a few inches of snowfall in northern portions of the
county, but only snow flurries in Aurora; and a thunderstorm wind event that resulted in gusts of
50 knots or more and some small hail. These events did not substantially affect the creek
monitoring data during 2021.
I-E-1

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Hurricane and a
Event Description
ai
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cow
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Hurricane Bonnie brought 7 to 10" of rain which resulted in some flooding in some areas.
much of the initial
a)
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Irene rainfall estimated
Average of 6 inches of snow across Coastal Plain. Reports of 9 of 13 inches were not uncommon.
Q Q Q Q Q
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mcm
mcm
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mcm
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c c c c c
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4 to 8 inches of snow in Beaufort County.
Thunderstorm winds produced gusts up to 63 mph.
a)
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Winter Storm
Winter Storm
Winter Storm
Thunderstorm Wind
Thunderstorm Wind
Thunderstorm Wind
Thunderstorm Wind
Thunderstorm Wind
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Thunderstorm Wind
Thunderstorm Wind
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Thunderstorm Wind
a)
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I-E-2

Event Description
Wind gusts 50 to 72 mph.
Thunderstorm winds produced gusts up to 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Charley. Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph.
Several severe thunderstorms produced winds gusting from 50 to 90 mph.
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a)
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Over 3 days, total of 6 to 8 inches of rainfall.
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Flash Flood
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Several storms produced winds gusting up to 60 mph and one tornado was reported.
Several severe storms produced large hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph.
0
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c_
0
a)
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c
a surge of 4.5 feet above normal
Belhaven. Winds of 60 mph
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= s
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Bands of showers across eastern North Carolina produced wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Several severe storms produced large hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph.
4 to 7 inches of snow.
Scattered thunderstorms produced wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Scattered thunderstorms produced wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Rainfall total 6 to 8 inches. Significant flooding in low lying areas and along small streams, especially in Washington.
Scattered thunderstorms produced wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Carolina. Several
eastern North
al >
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t tornado outbreaks ever observed
One of the large
developed ahead
warning area.
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tion had been well below normal.
low levels across the region.
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Total rainfall 11 to
A series of weak upper level disturbances produced wind gusts up to 60 mph. One small tornado was reported.
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Tropical Storm
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Thunderstorm Wind
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(1)
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Thunderstorm Wind
0
a)
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Thunderstorm Wind
Thunderstorm Wind
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Thunderstorm Wind
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I-E-3

Table I -El (continued).
Event Description
Several severe thunderstorms similar to a derecho produced hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph.
Several severe thunderstorms produced large hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph.
A severe thunderstorm produced damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.
approached from the west. Heavy rain led to some flooding in Beaufort County.
over eastern North
and large hail.
Persistent showers and thunderstorms led to rainfall
L
c
c
c
C
O
c
.a)
E
O
C
U
0
O
Q
N
>
N
N
E
U
o
N
E
O
N
c
0
L
0
O
C
0c
Up to 4 inches of snow fell in Beaufort County; PCS Aurora recorded a lesser amount.
earliest recorded
Thunderstorm winds produced gusts up to 60 mph.
:ontributed
of 5 to 7 inches
Rainfall totals
Thunderstorm Wind
Thunderstorm Wind
Thunderstorm Wind
Tropical Storm
Thunderstorm Wind
Winter Storm
Winter Storm
O
O
Thunderstorm Wind
O
O
Thunderstorm Wind
Winter Storm
Tropical Storm
Thunderstorm Wind
Winter Storm
Thunderstorm Wind
Tropical Storm
0
M
as
N N
LL
Lf)
O
LL
Lf)
M
U
0
Cr)
I-E-4

Table I -El (continued).
Event Description
October 9th. Widespread
October 8th through
C
O
Carolina coast late
a)
0
0
O
t
O
O
E
c
a)
t
U
0
0_
0_
a)
a)
0
U)
t
0)
U)
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O
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0
C
O
>
(6
a)
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Z
0
a)
c
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C
0
0
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(6
W
U)
O
U
0
C
O
a)
0_
O
aa))
C
(6
a)
t
Hurricane Matthew moved northeast offshore of the
the backside
north winds developed on
>
N
0
the evening of October 8th through the morning of the 9th.
wind gust of 46 mph recorded at a meso net site near Bath at 11:07 pm on October 8th. Storm surge inundation was mainly 1 to 3
a)
U
c
O
(V
E
a)
rn
C
c
C
O
C
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C
(6
0
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a)
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(6
C
c
0
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feet above ground level adjacent to the
storm total of 8.98
a)
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(6
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c
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on the southern beaches
Devastating river flooding then occurred several days after Matthew as
sho
An isolated severe thunderstorm produced large hail and strong wind gusts up to 63 mph.
Several severe thunderstorms resulted in wind gusts up to 63 mph.
Flash Flood
Thunderstorm Wind
Thunderstorm Wind
a)
co
8/9-Oct-16
0
_c
rn c E
.c 0
C
C ,6
O
0
(/) (6
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Carolina duri
Ocracoke area north to Duck along the Outer Banks.
A prolonged period of strong west to southwest winds produced record low water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico rivers.
_C_
Q� �, a) 0 C
W U) 3 LL
a) a`) o o E 0 O
7 Q U U) O C
E (6 a) °) m
a)— N-o -0
C C
( 'O N 4 '� 0) N
c N N o O Y C Y
45 0 C (6 1E (6
(6 0) 7 Q N 0_
0 .0 N >' 0 CO CO
a) E a) T . c
C O O N c
13)
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7 ( '6
C o > 0 a) U) ( -O
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C U) 1 o U) a) f
° m N ma O_ °- 0 N
a)
(6 Q U) -O 0 0 U)
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0 ° .0 (6 C O 0
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E (6 C c U)) c
a) 0 0 0 N 0 O N
E c °-tom-0
COc0 N 0 0 p o
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U)
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(c6 ,� t O C E
t
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3 >, — _° E U)
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fn § v o N o_ E
p) (6 E C N
a) O N aO O O LL
c a) E >' ' E C
N w t c 7 0_0 C O C O M (3)
LL (6 N O° N In N C
a).c U) a)N— m
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C Q �_ m
1-c aa) a§ EE.c
Winter Storm
Winter Storm
Low Water Event
Thunderstorm Wind
Tropical Storm
3/4-Jan-18
17/18-Jan-18
2/5-Mar-18
13 to 16-Sept-18
I-E-5

Table I -El (concluded).
Event Description
Thunderstorm Wind IA strong low pressure system and cold front produced strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
Thunderstorm Wind (Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms developed during the evening hours, producing large hail and damaging winds.
• co- E 6 O
O O 0
N N w '0
N E y
N
N
co
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co as E _• c N
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2 6) ' E E
U
C y 6) 7
U N = Q
N
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(6
Q N C
o -cy �O C 'S
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tz 55
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Thunderstorm Wind lAn isolated thunderstorm became severe and caused some wind damage.
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I-E-6

F. Rainfall
In an effort to understand the potential effects of precipitation on study results, rainfall data
are used for many site -specific and parameter -specific evaluations and also to determine if rainfall
conditions for a particular period were normal. Rainfall data are available from at least three
public databases in the area as well as rain gauge sites specific to local creek study basins.
Weather data, including rainfall, have been collected from the Aurora (PCS) plant site since about
1973. Data from this site are currently entered into three public data bases as described below:
1) Aurora 6N — Weather data have been collected and monitored by PCS staff at this
station (also referred to as Aurora plant site in report tables/figures) and rainfall data
entered into N.C. State Climate office database and also the AgACIS database (prior
to August 2021). This site is located and maintained in the vicinity of the Nutrien
administrative building and a small private runway along the south side of the Pamlico
River, about 6 miles north of Aurora.
2) Gaylord Bay, NC — Site managed by Agricultural Applied Climate Information System
(AgACIS), which is a repository for data collected at stations in the National Weather
Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (Coop) network supported by the
Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and National Water and Climate
Center within the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) (http://agacis.rcc-
acis.org/?fips=37013). This was the first year this site has been referenced with the
creeks study; however all data prior to August 2021 in the Gaylord Bay database is
from the Aurora plant site (also referred to as the Aurora 6N station). Rainfall data
from August 2021 forward are from Gaylord Bay, located on the north side of the
Pamlico River about 4.75 miles northeast of the Aurora plant site.
3) KNCAUROR6 — Data from a Davis Vantage Pro 2 (2019-2021)/Columbia Weather
Systems ORION 536 (2021-present) weather station at the Aurora plant site are found
in the Weather Underground database starting in 2019. This is a continuously
reporting station located on top of a building adjacent to the 6N station. It collects
rainfall, humidity, wind speed/direction, and temperature.
In addition to the Aurora plant site, there are seven other rain gauges associated with the
creeks study that are monitored to provide more site and basin specific data. Data from these
additional gauges are monitored by CZR and gaps from any period of a non-functional gauge are
supplemented with data from the next closest working gauge. The rain gauges currently
monitored by CZR were installed in 2010 (Tooley Creek), 2011 (PA2, Huddles Cut, Porter Creek,
Duck Creek), 2013 (DCUT19), and 2008 (SCUT1, Broomfield Swamp Creek). Prior to 2019, the
rain gauge for SCUT1 and Broomfield Swamp Creek located at Bay City Farm was utilized for
other projects.
During the early years of the study, rainfall data at Jacks Creek, Tooley Creek, and
Huddles Cut were provided to CZR by Dr. Wayne Skaggs per the agency approved plan and from
CZR monitored gauges within Jacks Creek, Tooley Creek, and Huddles Cut used for the wetland
hydrology analysis. Prior to installation of rain gauges in other creeks, Aurora 6N rain data were
used for rainfall and, after installation, were also used to supplement data gaps.
The US Army Corps of Engineers often uses two different tools to help determine if rainfall
for a particular period is above or below long-term normal data ranges; these tools include the
USDA WETS tables (use of 30th/70th percentiles to define a "normal" range) and the Antecedent
I-F-1

Precipitation Tool (APT). Both of these tools help determine if rainfall for a particular period is
"normal or typical", wetter than normal, or drier than normal.
WETS tables use a period of 30 years to generate a long-term data set to establish
"normal" periods of rainfall, defined as within the 30th-70th percentile range of data. Rainfall data
were obtained from the closest weather station where WETS tables with 30 years of data were
available. WETS tables are available via the AgACIS website, and the Gaylord Bay station is the
closest site with WETS data for this creeks study. AgACIS replaced the Aurora 6N site with the
Gaylord site in August 2021 and because of the proximity of the two sites, data prior to August
2021 from Aurora 6N were incorporated into the Gaylord Bay database. Monthly precipitation
data from Gaylord Bay are identified in Figure I-F1 and Table I-F1 for years during the course of
the study, 1998-2005 and 2007-2020. The WETS 30th and 70th percentiles are from the 30-year
period of 1991-2020.
Rainfall data from the Aurora plant site and the six additional study -specific sites represent
raw measured data and are often different than data found in the AgACIS online data used to
determine WETS percentiles. Data from onsite gauges are found in Table I-F2. Total 2021
annual rainfall for the Aurora plant site was within the 30th and 70t" percentile; however, online
data show the annual total as below the 30t" percentile, but this is inaccurate because it represents
preliminary/uncorrected data. Monthly online data represent preliminary data and therefore often
show less rain than the Aurora plant site, due to data gaps or missing data. Until online data are
reviewed and corrected, it is more accurate to use Aurora Plant Site data to compare to the WETS
30/70 percentiles. In 2021, four months were above the 70th percentile and four months were
below the 30th percentile, and the remainder were "normal" or typical (Table I-F1).
Annual rainfall amounts for all creek study sites and the Aurora plant site were within the
30th and 70th percentiles during 2021. Average rainfall amounts for all years, pre -years, and post -
years for each study creek and the Aurora plant site were compared to WETS data as shown in
Table I-F1. For pre -Mod Alt L years Jacobs Creek was the only impact creek with average rainfall
below the 30th percentile and Broomfield Swamp Creek was the only creek with average rainfall
above the 70th percentile. For post -Mod Alt L years, no creeks had average rainfall below the 30th
percentile and average rainfall at Jacks Creek, Jacobs Creek, Porter Creek, and DCUT11 were
above the 70th percentile (Table I-F2).
Precipitation was also evaluated using the APT developed by the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers. A figure to show the 2021 APT data for the general study area was generated by
using the dates of March 31, June 30, September 30, and December 31 (Figure I-F2). The last
date of each month was used to determine the APT scores for each month and the results along
with corresponding WETS condition are found in Table I-F3.
I-F-2

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
•
•
•
•
No creeks
monitoring
•
••
•
•
ocurred in 2006
•
••
•
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05\ §5 �� 5;1) �ii�' 4)," 5"g �At5 O`��5P 4 O ip Q O 0' O O iO1 O, qQ oa 5C1 i��� O,\O qP 0' 0' ' OQ 0' 6) 6) ) 6') Oa q) �t0 O,,O 0 5P j� Qb\O�O o Ob 6") i0) 6) 6) 6) Qg
9�o .a a�`a cei o '� aa 5a ` ` c ` , 4 `� ` `� d �` ` 5 e�` e4` 5 �` c ` `
• Total Monthly Rainfall —WETS 30 Percentile WETS 70 Percentile
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
•
21 A A A /41•
A
AIL A
•irrx- 1- r irrir 10,cr vilim! !• !
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a-� 4a a • e�o �a4a a�a4a � a�a-,a
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• Total Monthly Rainfall - WETS 30 Percentile
—WETS 70 Percentile ■ 2021Aurora Plant Site Monthly Rainfall
Figure I-F1. Monthly rainfall totals and WETS 30/70 percentiles at station Gaylord Bay over the years of the PCS creeks study (1998-2005; 2007-2020) with 2021 Aurora plant site monthly rain fall totals. The WETS 30/70
percentiles are from the 30-year period 1991-2020.
I-F-3

Rainfall (Inches)
Antecedent Precipitation vs Normal Range based on NOAA'
Daily Global Historical Climatology Network
10-
6
4-
Figure and tables made by the
Antecedent Pr.rlpltetke Teel
Version 1.0
L r
Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Start of Growing Season:
March 14
f
Mar
2021
11 11 II Ln
Apr May
2021 2021
J
n
Daily Total
- 30-Day Rolling Total
30-Year Normal Range
End of Growing Season:
November 24
f
rr I J 1 1 I I 1 4 r1 11 n
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021
n
Dec
2021
IL I
Coordinates
35.341239,-76.813103
Observation Date
2021-03-31
Elevation (it)
47.89
Drought Index (PDS )
Severe wetness
WebWIMP Ha0 Balance
Wet Season
1st Quarter 2021
nevi, and tables made by the
Antecedent PretlPa+tlnn Teel
version 1.0
n by Jason
U.S.army Cams of Engineers
Coordinates
35.341239, .76.613103
Observation Data
2021.06.30
0(ovo6dn (1t)
Drought Index (PDS )
WebWIMP HTO Balenoe
47.89
Severe wetness
Dry Sean
2rd Quarter 2021
Mum end tables nude by the
Anteeaaen0 h9Ptteaan Teal
Version IA
Wrinen by Jason Deters
s Army cormof Engineers
30 Days ending
30. %ile (in)
70or %iie (in)
Observed (in)
Wetness Condition
Condition value
Month Weight
Product
2021-03-31
2021-03-01
2.57126
2.259449
4.468977
4.533465
2.807067
4.570866
Normal
Wet
2
3
3
2
6
6
2021-01-30
2.872047
4.617717
7.03937
Wet
3
1
3
Result
MMIIIIIP000l -15
Weather Station Name
Coordinates
Elevation {{RR
Distance mil7
1.79
Elevation 6
wagh[ed 6
Gays (Nunn
Da s (Antecedent)
AURORA 6 N
35.3872,-76.7764
20.013
27.877
1.811
463
24
AURORA 1.6 SE
35.2872,-76,7674
4.921
4-537
42.969
2.237
462
0
BATH L.6 SSE
35.4437,-76.8037
4.921
7.099
42.969
3.5
122
6
BATH 1.0 WSW
35.462,-760324
20.013
8,414
27.877
4.021
9
0
BATH 5.6 ESE
35.4255,-75.7072
5.905
8.384
41.984
4.125
259
50
BLOUNTS CREEK 4.0 N
35.4084,-76 9546
26.903
9.224
20.987
4,344
62
0
BATH 0.7 N
35.4749,-75.8135
13.123
9.235
34.757
4.477
104
0
WASHINGTON 10.5 ESE
35.4776,-76.8908
17.06
10.388
30.83
4.995
149
0
WASHINGTON 7.6 SE
35.483,-76.949
5.906
12.43
41.984
6.115
140
0
WASHINGTON 7.2 SE
35.4908,-75.9512
5.906
12.933
41.984
6.363
5
0
BAYBDRO 4.4 ENE
35.1589,-75.6927
4.921
14.313
42.969
7.056
1
0
R6E1590;113
35.1311,-76.9153
44.948
15.623
2.942
7.076
11
0
&4YBDR0 3 SW
35.1311,-75.8161
4.921
14.52
42.969
7.156
391
0
30 Days Ending
30. %Ile (In)
70. %Ile lin)
Observed (In)
Wetness Condition
Condition Valve
Month Weight
Product
2021-06-30
4.11063
6.011024
9.972441
Wet
3
9
2021-05-31
2021-05-01
Result
2.541339
2.239764
4.786221
4.223622
1.582677
2.047244
Ory
Dry
2
2
nd8lans -12
Weather Station Name
Coordinates
Elevation (ft)
Distance (mi)
Elevation 5
Weighted 6
Days (Normal)
Days {Antecedent)
AURORA 6 N
35.3872,-76.77E4
20.013
3.79
27.877
1.811
9638
24
AURORA 1.6 SE
35.2872.-76.7674
4.921
4.537
42.969
2.237
462
0
BATH 1.655E
35.4437,-76.8037
4.921
7.099
42.969
3.5
122
56
BATH 1.0 WSW
35.467,-76.8324
20.013
8.414
27.877
4.021
9
0
85(111 6.6 ESE
3542265,-76.7072
5.905
8.394
41.891
4.120"
259
7
BLOUNTS CREEK 4.0 N
354084,-76.9346
26.903
9.224
20.987
4.344
62
0
BATH 0.7 N
35.4749/-76.8135
13.123
9.235
34.767
4.477
104
0
WASHINGTON 10.5 ESE
35.4776, 46.890g
17.06
10.356
30.83
4.995
149
0
BATH 4.1 NNW
35.5197,-76.8445
17.06
12.457
30.83
5.99
0
3
WASHINbI ON 7.65E
35.481,-76.949
5.906
12.43
41.984
6.115
140
0
WASHINGTON 7.2 SE
35.4908,-76.9512
5.906
12.433
41.984
6.363
5
0
BAYBORO 4.4 ENE
35.1589,-76.6927
4.921
14.313
42.969
7.056
1
0
REEL590RO
35.1311,-76.9153
44.948
15.523
2.942
7.076
11
0
BAYBORO 3 SW I 35.1311,-76.8161 1
4.921 1
14.52 I 42.969 I
7.158 I
391 I
0
Coordinates
35.341239,-76.813103
Observation nate
2021-09.30
Elevation (R)
47.89
Drought index (PDS)
Moderate wetness
WebWIMP Ht0 Balance
Wet Season
3rd Quarter 2021
Igure and tables made by Me
Antecedent PnviPaatien Taal
en by Irian cetera
D.s. Array ewes of Fneneers
Coordinates
35.341239,-76.813103
Observation Date
2021-12-31
Elevation (ft)
41.89
Droughtlndex(PO$0
WebWIMP H2O Balance
incipient wetness (2021-11)
Wet Season
4th Quarter 2021
I- leave anti tables made by the
Antecedent ereegtlrrTon Tool
Version 0.0
nednen by les, Deters
U.S. Arrny Corps of Engineers
30 Days Ending
30. %Re (In)
701 %Ile lin)
Observed (in)
Wetness Condition
Condition Value
Month Weight
Product
2021-09.30
3.93937
7.180315
1.449945
Ory
1
3
3
2021-08-31
3.415748
8.354173
5.937008
Normal
2
2
4
2021-08-01
4.084646
6,757481
5,228347
Normal
2
1
2
Result
Ode then Normal-9
Weather Station Name
Coordinates
Elevation (ft)
Distance (int)
Elevation A
Weighted 0
Days (Normal)
Days (Antecedent)
AURORA 6 N
353872,-76-7764
20013
3 79
27.877
1.811
9638
61
AURORA 1.6 5E
35.2972,-76.7674
4.921
4.537
42.954
27237-
462
0
6474 1.5 SSE
35.4437,-76.4037
4.921
7.099
42.969
3.5
122
29
BATH 1.01V5W
35.462,-76.8224
20.013
8.414
27.877
4.021
9
0
BATH 6.6 ESE
35.4265, -76.7072
5.906
8.384
41.984
4.125
259
0
BLOUNTS CREEK 4.0N
354084,-76.9546
26.903
9.224
20.987
4.344
62
0
BATH 0.7 N
35.4749,-76.8135
13.123
9.235
34.767
4.477
104
0
WASHINGTON 10.5 ESE
354776.-76.8908
17.06
10.386
30.83
4.995
149
0
WASHINGTON 7.65E
35.483,-76.949
5.906
12.43
41.984
6.115
140
0
WASHINGTON 7.25E
35.4908, -76.9512
5.906
12.933
41.984
6.363
5
0
BAYBORO 4.4 ENE
35.1589,-76.6927
4,921
14.313
42.969
7.056
1
0
REELSBORO
35.1311,-76.9153
44.948
15.623
2.942
7.076-
11
0
13956060 3 5W
35.1311,-76.8161
4.921
14.52
42.969
7.15e
391
0
30 Days Ending
30. %ile tin)
70.%le OR)
Observed gel
Wetness Condition
Condition Value
Month Weight
Product
2021-12-31
2.545659
3.976378
2.858268
Normal
3
2021-12-01
1.915354
3.842914
0.594458
Dry
2021-11-01
1.73931
4.31053
1.645669
Dry
Result
Drier than Normal - 9
Weatner Station Name
Coordinates
Elevation (ft)
Distance (mil
Elevation A
Wei heedA
Days (Normal)
Days (Antecedent)
AURORA 6N
35.3872,-76.7764
20.013
3.79
27.877
1.811
9458
99
AURORA 1.6 SE
35.1812,-75.7574
4.921
4.537
42.969
2.237
462
9
BATH 1.6 15E
354437,-76.8037
4.921
7.099
42.969
3.5
235
0
BATH 1.0 WSW
35.462,-75.8324
20.013
8.414
27.877
4.021
4
0
BATH 6.6 ESE
354265,-76.7072
5.906
8.384
41.984
4.125
352
0
BLOUNrS CREEK 4.0 N
35.4084,-76.9546
26.903
9.224
20.987
4.344
62
0
BATH 0.7 N
35.4749,-76.8135
13.123
9.235
34.767
4.477
104
0
WASHINGTON 10.5 ESE
354776,-76.8908
17.06
10.388
30.83
4.995
150
0
BATH 4.1 NNW
35.5197,-76.8445
17.06
I2457
30.83
5.94
3
0
WASHINGTON 7.6 55
35A83.-76.944
5.906
12.43
41.984
6.115
140
0
WASHINGTON 7.2 5E
35.4909,-76.9512
5.906
12.933
41.984
6.363
5
0
8A5'80904.4 ENE
35.1589,-76.6927
4.421
14.313
42.469
7.956
1
0
0EE1.58060
35.1311.-76.9153
44.948
15.623
2.942
7.076
11
0
Figure I-F2. Annual rainfall for 2021 as determined by the USACE's Antecedent Precipitation Tool (APT) with agency approved growing season of 256 days (March 14 - November 24).
0
I-F-4

1998-2005 and 2007-2020 for station
totals across the
annual rainfall
0
Table I-F1.
are above the WETS
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I-F-5

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co V M M V V V M (o M V (o V (o M
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C C C
Porter Creek
Porter DCUT11
Creek
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CO O O
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V LO LO
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PA2
Jacks Little Jacobs PA2* Drinkwater
Creek Creek* Creek Creek
i
43.44 43.44 43.44 43.44 43.44
55.62 55.62 55.62 55.62 55.62
41.60 41.60 41.60 41.60 41.60
52.87 52.87 52.87 52.87 52.87
56.75 56.75 56.75 56.75 56.75
52.70 52.70 52.70 52.70 52.70
46.61 46.61 46.61 46.61 46.61
56.55 56.55 56.55 56.55 56.55
54.86 54.86 54.86 54.86 54.86
67.02 67.02 67.02 67.02 67.02
51.73 51.73 51.73 51.73 51.73
O(O O O�
I� N
V co M
COo CV
O r-
N
V coM M
(OO O N-
V CO M
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V CONLO
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co (O V
O
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C C C
CO O CO
V CO M
C C C m m m
CO O •
V (co
Rain Gauge
Location
co
r
All Years
Min
Max
Average
Pre- Years (impact)
Min
Max
Average
Post- Years
Min
Max
Average
I-F-6

Table I-F3. Evaluation results of APT and WETS to determine
monthly rainfall conditions at the Aurora plant site in 2021. APT
scores of 10-14 indicate conditions are normal, a score of 9 or lower
indicates drier than normal conditions, and a score of 15 or above
indicates wetter than normal conditions.
APT score and results WETS
2021 score
category 30/70
January 15 wetter than normal
February 18 wetter than normal
March 15 wetter than normal normal
April 13 normal conditions normal
May 5 drier than normal
June 12 normal conditions above
July 13 normal conditions normal
August 13 normal conditions above
September 9 drier than normal
October 6 drier than normal normal
November 6 drier than normal
December 9 drier than normal
above
above
below
below
= drier
= wetter
below
below
I-F-7

G. Tar River Discharge
The Tar River is approximately 215 miles long and travels generally in a southeast
direction where it ends in the Pamlico Sound estuary. Below the US Highway 17 Bridge in
Washington, NC, the Tar River is called the Pamlico River.
Tar River discharge data are available from USGS gauge station 02084000 located in
Greenville, NC, approximately 35 miles upriver of the Aurora plant site. Daily discharge and
Aurora plant site rainfall are presented in Figure I-G1. Tar River discharge is a component in the
evaluation of salinity and is also included here as discharge can influence other parameters
evaluated.
The total discharge for 2021 was above average and the Aurora plant site rainfall was
slightly below average for the years of the study. The total discharge for 2021 was 1,025,989
ft3/s, which was above the average discharge of 828,259 ft3/s and median discharge of 918,607
ft3/s for the years of the study.
I-G-1

70DDD —
68000
66000
64000
62000
60000
58000 —
56000
5400D —
52000
50000
48000
46000
44000
42000 —
40000
38000
36000
34000
32000
30000
28000
26000 -
24000
22000 =
20000 -
18000
16000 -
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000 7
2060
o-
Tar River Average Daily Discharge at Greenville, NC (USGS Station 02084000)
(1998-2021)
No creeks monitoring
occured in 2006
No creeks monitoring
occured in 2006
PCS Plant Site Daily Rainfall
(1998-2021)
Figure I-G1. Average daily Tar River discharge at Greenville, NC (USGS Station 02084000) and Aurora Plant Site (Aurora 6N) daily rainfall during the years of the creek study.
I-G-2