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Home My WebLink AboutEMC Decisions Emerging Chemicals_revised1 Emerging Chemicals: Decision Making under Uncertainty Daniel A. Vallero, PhD Pratt School of Engineering Duke University 2 “Hold paramount…” •Engineers must “hold paramount the safety, health and welfare of the public.” •Characterizes the need for not only protecting public health and the environment, but to be guardians for sustaining these protections. Engineers may not be the best arbiters of ethics…. 3 I never saw no miracle of science that didn't go from a blessing to a curse I never saw no military solution that didn't always end up as something worse … (Sting, 1993) But, the Grand Challenges for the 21st Century are loaded with ethical content* Make solar energy economical Provide energy from fusion Develop carbon sequestration methods Manage the nitrogen cycle Provide access to clean water Restore and improve urban infrastructure Advance health informatics Engineer better medicines Reverse-engineer the brain Prevent nuclear terror Secure cyberspace Enhance virtual reality Advance personalized learning Engineer the tools of scientific discovery * National Academy of Engineering. Grand Challenges in Engineering: http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/ Involves emerging chemicals Engineer versus engineering •Microethics –ethical choices and dilemmas faced by individual researchers/practitioners, especially as they relate to acting in accordance with professional codes and norms •Macroethics –ethical issues of research and practice in larger social and institutional contexts, including broader social responsibilities of engineers, policy and political questions and debates, questions about what the rules and norms should be, and who is involved in debates 6 Level 1 Reactor Antimicrobial Use Animal microbial populations Human microbial populations Microbes introduced Confined feeding operations, aquaculture, farms, etc. Healthcare facilities, long- term care, daycare centers, etc. Microbial Wastes, effluents, emissions, drift Wastewater treatment plants, sewers, septic tanks, etc. Level 2 Level 3 Ground & surface waters Soil & sedimentsLevel 4 into the environment genetic mixing Microbial genetic mixing Level 1 Reactor Antimicrobial Use Animal microbial populations Human microbial populations Microbes introduced Confined feeding operations, aquaculture, farms, etc. Healthcare facilities, long- term care, daycare centers, etc. Microbial Wastes, effluents, emissions, drift Wastewater treatment plants, sewers, septic tanks, etc. Level 2 Level 3 Ground & surface waters Soil & sedimentsLevel 4 into the environment genetic mixing Microbial genetic mixing Engineers, especially chemE’s, see the environment as a series of reactors…. Adapted from: F. Baquero, J.L. Martínez and R.Cantón (2008). Antibiotics and antibiotic resistance in water environments. Biotechnology. 19:2 60–265. 7 Environmental Science = Chaos Subsequent event series1…n Desired environmental outcome Subsequent event series1…p Fortuitous, positive environmental impact Present Future Subsequent event series1…q Neutral environmental impact Subsequent outcome series1…r Unplanned negative environmental impact Initial event 0.970 Chain of events Actual outcome Probability of outcome at outset 0.003 0.026 0.001Mitigating measuresAcceptable for some engineering, e.g. a septic system. 8 Environmental Science = Chaos Subsequent event series1…n Desired environmental outcome Subsequent event series1…p Fortuitous, positive environmental impact Present Future Subsequent event series1…q Neutral environmental impact Subsequent outcome series1…r Unplanned negative environmental impact Initial event 0.970 Chain of events Actual outcome Probability of outcome at outset 0.003 0.026 0.001Mitigating measuresUnacceptable for others, e.g. a leak of cancer-causing chemicals 9 Decision draws on varied knowledgebases: Subsequent event series1…n Desired environmental outcome Subsequent event series1…p Fortuitous, positive environmental impact Present Future Subsequent event series1…q Neutral environmental impact Subsequent outcome series1…r Unplanned negative environmental impact Initial event 0.970 Chain of events Actual outcome Probability of outcome at outset 0.003 0.026 0.001Mitigating measures 10 Subsequent event series1…n Desired environmental outcome Subsequent event series1…p Fortuitous, positive environmental impact Present Future Subsequent event series1…q Neutral environmental impact Subsequent outcome series1…r Unplanned negative environmental impact Initial event 0.970 Chain of events Actual outcome Probability of outcome at outset 0.003 0.026 0.001Mitigating measuresDecision draws on varied knowledgebases: 11 Subsequent event series1…n Desired environmental outcome Subsequent event series1…p Fortuitous, positive environmental impact Present Future Subsequent event series1…q Neutral environmental impact Subsequent outcome series1…r Unplanned negative environmental impact Initial event 0.970 Chain of events Actual outcome Probability of outcome at outset 0.003 0.026 0.001Mitigating measuresDecision draws on varied knowledgebases: 12 Subsequent event series1…n Desired environmental outcome Subsequent event series1…p Fortuitous, positive environmental impact Present Future Subsequent event series1…q Neutral environmental impact Subsequent outcome series1…r Unplanned negative environmental impact Initial event 0.970 Chain of events Actual outcome Probability of outcome at outset 0.003 0.026 0.001Mitigating measuresDecision draws on varied knowledgebases: 13 Subsequent event series1…n Desired environmental outcome Subsequent event series1…p Fortuitous, positive environmental impact Present Future Subsequent event series1…q Neutral environmental impact Subsequent outcome series1…r Unplanned negative environmental impact Initial event 0.970 Chain of events Actual outcome Probability of outcome at outset 0.003 0.026 0.001Mitigating measuresDecision draws on varied knowledgebases: 14 System thinking is sometimes the most important part, e.g. increasing the positive, but at what costs? Subsequent event series1…n Desired outcome Subsequent event series1…p Fortuitous, positive impact Present Future Subsequent event series1…q Neutral impact Subsequent outcome series1…r Unplanned negative impact Initial event 0.975 Chain of events Actual outcome Probability of outcome at outset 0.002 0.020 0.003 YAY! 15 Subsequent event series1…n Desired outcome Subsequent event series1…p Fortuitous, positive impact Present Future Subsequent event series1…q Neutral impact Subsequent outcome series1…r Unplanned negative impact Initial event 0.975 Chain of events Actual outcome Probability of outcome at outset 0.002 0.020 0.003 BOO! System thinking is sometimes the most important part, e.g. increasing the positive, but at what costs? 16 Risk: One of many definitions •Quantifiable: Risk = f(Hazard x Exposure) •A probability, a fraction •Part of our everyday lives –Different for each of us –Basis for decision-making Chemical exposure is a function of inherent properties and how it is used 17 Tailor-made for informatics…. 18 What could possibly go wrong, ethically speaking? 19 Utility drives some of the threat •Engineers do things. •The nature of the work contributes to the vulnerability. •Data and metadata must be shared, e.g. communications and security. •Utilitarianism versus deontology = engineer’s desired outcome versus behavior in pursuing the outcome. But if engineers have to do things and scientists have to discover things, how do we balance these with precaution? 20 But if engineers have to do things and scientists have to discover things, how do we balance these with precaution? St. Thomas Aquinas, the ship captain, and opportunity risks….. 21 22 Rely heavily on self-enforcement….* Analytical Phase Risk Assessment Processes Risk Perception Processes Identifying risk Physical, chemical, and biological monitoring and measuring of the event Personal awareness Deductive reasoning Intuition Statistical inference Estimating risk Magnitude, frequency and duration calculations Personal experience Cost estimation and damage assessment Intangible losses and non- monetized valuation Economic costs Evaluating risk Cost/benefit analysis Personality factors Community policy analysis Individual action *Adapted from K. Smith, 1992 23 Remember: “Hold paramount…” •Engineers must “hold paramount the safety, health and welfare of the public.” •Characterizes the need for not only protecting public health and the environment, but to be guardians for sustaining these protections. •But, how do we do this….? Maybe the best way to approach it is using narrative 24 •Yes, not the typical approach of engineering communication…. •Trust me? 25 Parable #1 Trolleys and Medicine Aquinas’s Double Effect Principle: •Act itself must be morally good or at least indifferent. •Agent may not positively will the bad effect but may permit it. If good effect possible without the bad effect, that is what should be done. Bad effect is sometimes said to be indirectly voluntary. •Good effect must flow from the action at least as immediately as the bad effect •Good effect must be produced directly by the action, not by the bad effect. Otherwise the agent would be using a bad means to a good end, which is never allowed. •Good effect must be sufficiently desirable to compensate for the allowing of the bad effect. 26 Parable #2 Rolheiser’s “Good” Town If you see (believe) something, say something…. Otherwise momentum and inertia work against the good. Sorry, no conclusions! 27 Every scenario is unique. Okay, maybe one: 28 Decisions involving emerging chemicals, or anything with uncertain outcomes, follow three steps: 1.Awareness (easiest to start, but reactions vary) 2.Identifying alternatives/options 3.Decision that changes behaviors (regulated industry, engineers, consumers, the public…)