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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Sunday November 18 2012.msg_20121119Strickland, Bev From: Weaver, John Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Monday, November 19, 2012 11:52 AM To: Linwood Peele Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. mi1, michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody; wly; Jackson, Donna Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Sunday, November 18, 2012 NC Drought advisory group, This weekly summary is being provided a day early due to adjusted telecom scheduled for this afternoon at 2 :00 PM. On a technical note, the USGS is shifting to a new email system, and this email has been sent under the new system. Please let me know if you encounter any issues in the receipt of this email and /or an appearance on your computer monitors that causes difficulty viewing the text and images. Precipitation maps for North Carolina ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http: / /www.nc- climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure) indicate that much of the state received less than 0.5 inch, particularly from the mountains region across the central and northern Piedmont / Coastal Plain regions. The maps indicate 0.5+ inch across the extreme southern Piedmont near the SC border as well as across the Sand Hills and southern Coastal Plain regions. The highest totals were in the range of 2 to 4 inches along the southern coast from Brunswick County to Onslow County. The deepening dryness pattern noted in the previous few weeks across North Carolina continues to be visible on the USGS real -time streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). Widespread below - normal streamflow conditions are depicted across the southern Piedmont and Sand Hills regions, with below - normal streamflows at a growing number of USGS gages in the "less than 10th percentile" range and "record low for the calendar day." An area of streamflow conditions in the lowest two categories also continues to be depicted near the Virginia border in the Dan River basin (tributary to the Roanoke River). Streamflow elsewhere across the state is depicted as a mix of conditions, but the the below - normal conditions appear to growing more widespread. The 28 -day average streamflow map ( http:// waterwatch. usgs .gov /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) likewise continues to depict below - normal streamflows for most of the Piedmont and Sand Hills regions. Streamflow conditions in the "less than 10th percentile" and "record low for the calendar day" ranges are noted for about 30 USGS streamgages across the Piedmont and Sand Hills regions. As of November 17 (Saturday), streamflow conditions indicate 48 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests improvements( ?) in overall streamflows relative to 57 percent just a week ago. As noted last week, water levels at the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http://ogwOl.er.usgs.gov/crn/StateMaps/NC.html) are depicted in the normal range for 4 wells, below normal for 4 wells, and much below - normal range for the well near Mocksville in Davie County ( http:// groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355359080331701 &ncd =crn). Water levels at the Coastal Plain observation wells are depicted in the below - normal range for the 1 well near Grantham in Wayne County ( http:// groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /StateMapsNet .asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37), the normal range for 4 wells, and above normal for the well near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:// groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn) following an increase of about 0.2 feet in the past week. Changes made to last week's NC depiction in the USDM release included a DO expansion across the northern Piedmont and foothills region to the the Virginia border. With another week of little to no rainfall across much of the state, further deterioration across parts of central North Carolina may be warranted, reflective of the continuing below - normal hydrologic conditions and growing precipitation deficits. With last week's DO expansion across all the Piedmont and Sand Hills regions, the focus now shifts tc possible D1 expansion across these regions. Suggestion for a northward 1- county D1 expansion have already been noted by Moneypenny (NWS Ral) and Tanner (NWS Greenville - Spartanburg). These suggestions are supported by the widespread below - normal streamflow conditions in the "less than 10th percentile" and "record low for the calendar day" ranges within these regions. One other D1 expansion the NC drought group needs to consider is D1 across the Dan River basin (crib to Roanoke River) at the Virginia border. However, status quo has been suggested (Corrigan, NWS Blacksburg) for this area in this week's release. But if no substantial rainfall materializes in the next week, the NC group should advocate for D1 expansion into this basin. The D1 category is already in place for part of central Virginia. If this D1 is expanded south and west, the expansion could pick up the Dan River basin. Suggest "status quo" elsewhere. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- icweaver(a�usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Monday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. USDM author Eric Luebehusen, meteorologist with the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board in Washington, D.C., is the USDM author for this week's release. Due to Thanksgiving holiday week, production of this week's USDM release is on a 1 -day accelerated schedule. No "preliminary thoughts" email has been released as of Monday morning. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /droughtmonitor .unl.edu /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tVpe = precip &group key= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc- climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ a -- Streamflow -- • - -. • • Kroram Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: Hwaterwatch.usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma Current conditions... El Last week's conditions... El a When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (November 19 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Nov 13 Current flow (% of) Median Nov 18 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 46 cfs 55 cfs 122% 45 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 55 cfs 96 cfs 25% 380 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 8.3 cfs 12 cfs 43% 28 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 154 cfs 177 cfs 510 347 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,180 cfs 1,120 cfs 76% 1,480 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 44 cfs 24 cfs 460 52 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 858 cfs 802 cfs 61% 1,320 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 95 cfs 64 cfs 630 101 cfs #� !� 31�^ Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc. water .usgs.gov /drought /duration.htmI The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the 4 image below: IM To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: F'oo......o,.�, ... ��mAO .mmw „��,�o��mAO.�,�.�.oF�, „oF��o.�,.FOm�...�.u. FM-1 As of November 17 (Saturday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 48 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 14 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to November 11 (Sunday), the current values indicate improvements( ?) in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 57% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 25% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable t. t t 1 t MY Less than 25th percentile Less than 10th percentile New min forthe day Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day indicated percentile range or love 411� 4N e Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through November 18 (Sunday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought /dm- streamflow.html 6 Explanation No - No Drought (>30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) Unregulated Regulated IHI IHI IHI IHI D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined IHI IHI The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with I Drought i r in c r u ). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help ` ' --- GO 61 6 _ : ,961.182 -] y jq 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease c rr€ r 0 Display i Source Selection Catalog J Drawing' - k 1:1 �1u � B � � � � � -- Ground Water -- Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usgs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. a 0 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase 9 No percentile change g to - -5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease c rr€ r 0 Display i Source Selection Catalog J Drawing' - k 1:1 �1u � B � � � � � -- Ground Water -- Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usgs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. a 0 Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred mo dule =sw) USES 351 080 374302 Tf -465 (NC -144) AT BLANTYf E, NC RE OLITH) 2115.00 cu 32.20 e« ° 2114.80 y }, 32.40 p Q. 2114.60 z 32.60 M L' 2114,40 cu 4� +0 32.80 Qy L 2114.20 CU M L a 3300 . � C_ � d O L C7 Oct Nov Nov Nov 27 03 10 17 2012 2012 2012 2012 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- 10 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County ( http:// waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no =35405 7080362601 &set logscale y =0 &begin date = 20070319) 11 USES 354057080312601 8 149 (NC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITH) 8.55 669.45 CU = o 8.60 669.40 of � 8.65 669,35 0 }, z y 8.70 669.30 Qy 0 L 8.75 669.25 t4 L GU } 4J 8.80 669.20 L +°} 8.85 669.15 CU +} M L 4 � G 8.90 669.10 C 0 O L C7 Oct Nov Nov Nov 27 03 10 17 2012 2012 2012 2012 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County ( http:// groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) 12 USES 3 544040 7 8403101 WK-2 LAKE i HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITH' ELL 27.05 27.10 s 0 27.15 4J 27.20 ti t..f 27.25 Ly L N L 27.30 4J �A 27.35 O 27.40 CL G] d 97_d9 Oct Nov Nov Nov 27 03 10 17 2012 2012 2012 2012 -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- 347.95 It Q. 347.90 of 347.85 d 347.80 m O 347.75 +4 r-I G} } 347.70 L CU 347.65 ' C 347.60 L L7 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred mo dule =sw) 13 USES 353219077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N (URFI IAL 1.00 m 'i 55.00 ° F 1.50 y CW 54.50 Q 00 2. L VS! } z y 54.00 4} 2.5$ m ^i 53 +50 Q 3.00 } 53 +00 L +° 3.50 CU +4 L 52.50 � G 4 +00 O Oct Mow Nov Mow L ca 27 03 10 17 2012 2012 2012 2012 0 Measured depth to water level Period of approved data — Depth to water level Period of provisional data 14