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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday September 26.msg_20110927Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, September 27, 2011 10:47 AM To: Linwood Peele Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, September 26 NC Drought advisory group, I will be in attendance to the Corps face -to -face meeting today, but will attempt to participate in the conference call from meeting site. The roller coaster ride of rainfall patterns continues. After very little to no rainfall a few weeks ago across most of North Carolina, rainfall during the past week produced widespread high totals, especially across much of the Piedmont region where accumulations of 2+ and 3+ inches were common ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /). Likewise, widespread 2+ inch totals are depicted for the eastern Coastal Plain and Outer Banks where Hurricane Irene passed in late August dropping heavy amounts of rain. The only areas that did not receive more than 0.5 inch rainfall during the past week were parts of the Coastal Plain along a line running from Bladen and Pender Counties towards the north - northeast into Edgecombe and Martin Counties. The occurrence of rainfall is reflected in the overall streamflow patterns, particularly across much of the Piedmont region. The current real -time streamflow maps (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) depict numerous USGS streamgages across the state with normal and above - normal streamflow conditions. However, there are a small number of sites where below - normal conditions are still indicated, in particular parts of the northern tier along the Virginia border from the Triad to Triangle areas. Some below - normal streamflow conditions also are currently depicted for a number of sites in the Catawba and Broad River basins. As of September 25 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 8 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests improvements in overall streamflow relative to 59 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate Response Network (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) are depicted in the normal range for 8 wells, below normal for 1 well near Marston in Scotland County ( http : / /groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 345812079313401 &ncd =crn), and much below normal for the 1 well at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http : / /groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn). Of note on the Chapel Hill well, the water levels have indicated some response to the recent rainfall, but are still very low having set a provisional new record low water level (46.16 ft on Sept 21) for the month of September (46.15 ft). Water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain are currently depicted in the normal range for 4 wells, above normal for 1 well near Hoke in Washington County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354418076463601 &ncd =crn), and much above normal for 1 well near Simpson in Pitt County ( http : / /groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 353219077153801 &ncd =crn). Changes in the water levels in these wells continue to reflect the recent rainfalls that have occurred across parts of the Coastal Plain during the past month. Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Changes to last week's map included expansion of D1 across the southern Piedmont as well as some minor expansion of D2 across the Broad River basin near the border with South Carolina. Based on observations of the recent rainfall and hydrologic patterns, it appears that some improvements may be warranted, especially across parts of the western and central Piedmont region with the high rainfall totals during the past week. However, given the streamflow conditions as well as the groundwater levels in the Chapel Hill and Marston wells, it would be appropriate to maintain some DO( ?) from the Triad area south towards the parts of the Sand Hills region. The concern in making a change would be the potential "flip- flop" change in a couple weeks if no further rain materializes. However, with D1 currently depicted across much of central North Carolina, a 1- category change would still leave DO in place. It's important to remind ourselves that while recent streamflows and groundwater levels have been responsive to the rainfalls, it will not take long for a return to below - normal conditions should the pattern revert to below - normal precipitation. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Michael Brewer, NIDIS U.S. Drought Portal Manager with the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made the following specific comments concerning the Carolinas region: Carolinas - looks like some good rains across all of SC and most of western and central NC. Charlotte area now looks good precip -wise but streams and soil moisture not yet responding. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 9/6/011 1200 UTC— Created 9/26/11 23:55 UTC -- Streamflow -- 4: 110,111MITITERIT110111111111 Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap Current conditions... Tuesday, Septenber 27, 2011 07 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Monday, Septenber 19, 2011 22 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. X10 Lew 1024 5 -7 76 -90 > � ............ - �: High Idol- ranked l O N ch beds ur - ---- ---- -� Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l�) ab0VV, mar €Y I r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (September 27 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Sep 19 Current flow (% of) Median Sep 27 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 240 cfs 399 cfs 51820 7.7 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 232 cfs 410 cfs 1600 257 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 0.8 cfs 2.0 cfs 17% 12 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 68 cfs 379 cfs 1710 221 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 845 cfs 1,150 cfs 88% 1,300 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 18 cfs 30 cfs 73% 41 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 626 cfs 1,200 cfs 1140 1,050 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 44 cfs 67 cfs 92% 73 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, September 26, 2011 I, SGS 6 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, September 26, 2011 As of September 25 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 8 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 2 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to September 18 (Sunday), the current values indicate substantial improvements in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 59% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 21 % of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable i i If i September Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe New ruin forthe day October ilovember December January February March2011 April2011 .4; 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through September 26 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 8 t" w Previous 7 days Monday, September 2, 2011 Q) Q Previous 30 days Monday, September 2, 2011 if Explanation Unregulated Regulated No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) 0 ❑ D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) IF D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) a IM n/d - Not determined 0 ❑ 0 The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help --- ____ ____ _____mmmm________ 23 61 & 10 rc r + 1:3,540,016 ............................................................................................................................................. ..............................' x -!, Layers -1 ❑Q Automated DM maps (short string) ❑Q (weekly change in 7 -day median percentile) ® <all other values> WeeHy_c_i nid Greater than 50 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile increase O? t'Y tip a Editor xv Display I Source Selection; Drawing ❑ '` A 0___ -- Ground Water -- B I U A� w_' w Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 10 10 to 25 percentile increase 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase B No percentile change 0 to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease O? t'Y tip a Editor xv Display I Source Selection; Drawing ❑ '` A 0___ -- Ground Water -- B I U A� w_' w Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 10 ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. ok WES VIRGINIA Unto Warsauu ;F .Logan Oak Jappaanncd< Atlantic into Salu��; e Bed tl ham ° '" ° White Mane Beach �Welo Unio, L' bur 60 C o l , Q p4 pial =H'�igh t.� E,ashille P asking �anok 0A New Virginia Vir 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ....... " Low hrluch ''""' ""'Bel' Normal l ove hrluGl l cve� High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 12 USES 351808082374302 TR -065 HC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH C 31.99 2116.99 e« pq S �: 31.56 GF J 2115.59 ° } 41 L7 Z t 0 32.99 GU 4} L 2115.99 m L Q CU } 4J GU 32.59 L O 2114.59 cu +} ay m L i C Q G 33.99 C L Sep Sep Sep Sep ca 93 19 17 24 2911 2911 2911 2911 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 12 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.E 2129.9 m Q. a, 28.9 2119.9 0 29 +0 2118.9 0 z Do ' c 39.9 2117.9 t > M r r 31.9 2116.9 °� 0 32 +$ 2115.9 4 4J C6 L Gi G: p 33.9 2114.9 +: M >- J C G 34 +0 L Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2919 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 14 SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI a CU CU W. 8.80 669.20 9.00 669.00 L CU 9.20 668.80 CU 9.40 668.60 CL C 9.60 668.40 0 Sep Sep Sep Sep 03 10 17 24 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 14 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 672 +0 1 6 +0 -069 0 (RE t LITH) m 45 +86 CU � 465 +78 4J 6.5 671 +5 a 45 +85 7 +9 671 +6 G 465 +65 } L) ' C 7 +5 670 +5 z L 45 +98 465 +68 8 +0 670 +0 r a Lo 45 +95 �} L 8 +5 z 669 +5 46 a CU 4� ° 9 +0 L 669 +0 +} s -J r H G 9.5 L' 668 +5 0 Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep CL 465 +45 2010 2011 2911 2011 2011 2911 Q — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data DO (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) m 45 +86 465 +78 a 45 +85 465 +65 45 +98 465 +68 a Lo 45 +95 465 +55 z 46 465 L +ee v +59 m L' 46 +95 465 +45 CU Q DO s 46 +18 465 +49 L 46 +15 465 L +35 � C C 0 46 +2$ 465 +3$ 7 Sep Sep Sep Sep Lo $3 1$ 17 24 2911 2911 2911 2911 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 15 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) a 42.0 469.5 w cu cu .0 42.5 469.0 Q. S Q 43. 468.5 0 W 43.5 468.8 > } z 44.9 467.5 L L O J }' ful 44.5 467.8 +4 r 1 45.8 466.5 m cu r-I L C6 45.5 466.$ L G M >- 46.9 465.5 J 10 r H 0 CE 46.5 465.8 L Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2019 2911 2011 2911 2911 2011 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 17 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) C 1.00 4J 55.00 F Q 1.50 rn 54.50 > Lo z 0 2.00 CU 54.00 Qy L 00 2.50 m F-1 L Q CU DO 4J 53.50 CU —1 to 3.00 L O 4J CU 4J 53.00 3 4J C6 3.50 Sep Sep Sep Sep L 03 10 17 24 Lo 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level A Value exceeds "standard difference" threshold. 17 18 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1 +$ 5555 +9 Q- 2 ry �y .0 54 +$ S 41 o% 3 +0 +$ 52 +$ 41 ` +0 CU 59 +$ }y 7 m -W +9 49 +9 L C6 p 8 Gi +9 48 +9 s 9 H o +$ Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep C 2919 2811 2911 2911 2911 2911 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997) 18