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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday September 24 2012.msg_20120925Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, September 25, 2012 11:41 AM To: Jackson, Donna Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Linwood Peele; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody; wly Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, September 24, 2012 NC Drought advisory group, Precipitation maps for North Carolina (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure) indicate widely mixed rainfall totals across the state during the past week, most of the rain being associated with a storm system that crossed the state at the beginning of the USDM weekly period. With exception of parts of the southern Piedmont as well as the central and northern Coastal Plain, rainfall totals generally exceeded 0.5 inch. Higher totals in the range of 2 to 3 inches are noted in a couple bands across the northeast Piedmont and southern Coastal Plain. Aside from a narrow band that crossed the state with a frontal passage on Sunday, very little to no rainfall occurred across most of the state after last week's storm system. Effects of last week's rainfalls can still be noted in some of the streamflows across the state with a mix of mostly normal and below - normal conditions currently depicted on the USGS real -time streamflow map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). However, the below - normal conditions tend to cluster in the southwest Piedmont within the Broad, South Fork Catawba, and upper Catawba River basins as well as along the Virginia border in the Dan River basin (tributary to the Roanoke). These are the same areas that have been mentioned in the previous few weeks' streamflow summaries. Examination of 28 -day average streamflows (http: / /waterwatch. usgs .gov /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) echo the current real -time streamflows with below - normal conditions likewise noted in the aforementioned basins. As of September 23 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 5 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests improvements in overall streamflows relative to 29 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http://ogwOl.er.usgs.gov/crn/StateMaps/NC.html) are currently depicted in the above - normal range for 1 well in the Pisgah Forest in Transylvania County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 351709082434101 &ncd =crn), normal range for 4 wells, below normal for 2 wells, and continued much below - normal for the Mocksville well in Davie County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355359080331701 &ncd =crn) as well as the Marston well in Scotland County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) Water levels at the Coastal Plain observation wells continue to be depicted in the above - normal ranges at 3 wells, above normal for 2 wells, and below normal for the well near Grantham in Wayne County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 351849078163901 &ncd =crn). Because of the storm system that was moving across the state at the beginning of the USDM period, no changes were made to the previous week's USDM depiction for North Carolina. With overall hydrologic conditions continuing to indicate a mix of streamflow and groundwater conditions across the state, it is a bit challenging to see any definitive pattern to provide guidance in determining the adjustments that need to be made. However, inspection of the percent of normal precipitation (PNP, http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /) at varying length of periods indicates some areas that need consideration for possible adjustments: (1) In the Coastal Plain where a growing area of 30 -day PNP in the range of 25 to 50 percent is taking shape. Most of the Coastal Plain is currently shown as D- nothing, and an expansion of DO may be warranted. (2) In the extreme southwest mountains in the Little Tennessee and Hiwassee River basins where 30 -day PNP in the 50 to 75 percent range is noted. This area is currently shown as DO. (3) The only area of improvement that could be considered is parts of the French Broad River basin where DO is currently shown. The PNP values for 14- to 60 -day periods do not appear to justify DO. The NC group may want to deepen the "notch" of D- nothing from the upper Catawba towards the headwaters of the French Broad River basin as well as parts of the middle French Broad and Watauga River basins northeast of Asheville towards Boone. "Status quo" elsewhere... Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Monday evening, draft 2 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. USDM author Anthony Artusa, meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release. In the emails accompanying both drafts 1 and 2, he has made no specific comments concerning North Carolina. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 9/25/2012 1200 UTC— Created 9/25/12 13:56 UTC -- Streamflow -- Focusing on current streamflow conditions... Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap Current conditions... 4 Tuesday, Septenber 25, 2012 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, Septenber 18, 2012 08 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. X10 Lew 1024 5 -7 76 -90 > � ............ - �: High Idol- ranked l M N ch beds ur - ---- ---- -� Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV, mar €Y I r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (September 25 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Sep 18 Current flow (% of) Median Sep 25 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 66 cfs 61 cfs 7720 7.9 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 67 cfs 48 cfs 210 234 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 12 cfs 20 cfs 182% 11 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 432 cfs 267 cfs 1140 235 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,540 cfs 1,230 cfs 96% 1,280 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 128 cfs 21 cfs 54% 39 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 2,770 cfs 1,150 cfs 1100 1,050 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 173 cfs 60 cfs 910 66 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, September 24, 2012 I, SGS 6 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, September 24, 2012 As of September 23 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 5 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 0 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to September 16 (Sunday), the current values indicate improvements in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 29% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 7% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable 1 f Less than 25th percentile Less than 10th percentile New min forthe clay Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day indicated percentile range or love AN N NI Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through September 24 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 8 Previous 7 days Monday, September 24, 2012 Previous 30 days Monday, September 24, 2012 Explanation No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined Unregulated Regulated a IM D ❑ 0 The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help h El Layers ❑ automated DM maps (short string) <all othervalues> 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease EditorT , k--rea e Nev ,,e Fee' LII -E Source Selection Catalog t 4 Ci�Plak' iir 1 Lira Laing ❑ vial 1 B �€ U A � -- Ground Water -- 10 5 to 10 percentile increase B tc5 percentile increase 9 No percentile change B to,5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease EditorT , k--rea e Nev ,,e Fee' LII -E Source Selection Catalog t 4 Ci�Plak' iir 1 Lira Laing ❑ vial 1 B �€ U A � -- Ground Water -- 10 Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 New <f 1024 . ..................................... ................................ X25 7 75 9 >0 New ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . ............ Not Low Mich Below Below -- Normal Above hrluoh Above' High Ranked Normal Normal Normal Normal Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 12 USGS 351808082374302 TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC (REGOLITH) 32.30 - 2114.80 a .0 CU 32.40 - 2114.70 CU 32.50 - 2114.60 0 32.60 - 2114.50 4. z 32.70 - 2114.40 (U Q L 32.80 2114.30 m L CU (U 4J 32.90 - 2114.20 D 'U L 33.00 - 2114.10 CU -P CL 33.10 2114.00 m 33.20 Sep Sep Sep Sep 01 08 15 22 2012 2012 2012 2012 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 12 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 USGS 351808082374302 TR -Q 5 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, H (RE OLITH) a 27.E 2129.9 m Q. .0 28 +9 2119.9 4 29 +9 2118.9 8 39.9 2117.9 z Gam] 31.9 2118.9 4J M 32.9 211519 } cu �} 33 +$ 2114.9 L C6 Q cu Q 34 +$ 211319 M J C CE 35 +6 L Nov Jan Mar Nay Jul Sep 2911 2912 2912 2912 2912 2912 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 14 USGS 354057080362601 R -149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE% LITH 9 +99 669 +99 CU Q. ° �y �y 9 +95 p 668 +95 y N 4J 9 +19 668 +99 z 9 +15 668 +85 'U Ly L y 9 +29 668 +89 m L (U C +0 9 25 + 668 +75 � L O 9 +39 668 Gi 4J s L C +79 C CL p 9 +35 668 +65 CL C7 Sep Sep Sep Sep 91 98 15 22 2912 2912 2912 2912 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- 14 (EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) USGS 354057080362601 R -149 (NC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLITH) a 672 +9 1 6 +9 0 CU � 6.5 671 +5 4J U 27 +39 7 +9 671 +9 G 347 +79 {y } L) z ' C 7 +5 679 +5 L 4 27 +49 M -0 8 +9 679 +9 C 347 +69 (} �} L 8 +5 669 +5 (U y C6 CU Q 347 +55 Q +} ° 9 +9 669 +9 s °U } 4ti J r H � a 9 +5 668 +5 L 0 Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2911 2912 2912 2912 2912 2912 CU P — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) 15 USGS 354404078403101 WK -284 LAKE WHEELER RS IOW -3 (REGOLITH WELL) 27 +25 347 +75 m m U 27 +39 347 +79 {y 27 +35 347 +65 27 +49 Z 347 +69 L 27 +45 (U y 347 +55 Q 27 +59 °U } 4ti 347 +59 L 0 27 +55 CU P +� 347 +45 s L CL 27 +69 C c 347 +49 0 L C7 Sep Sep Sep Sep $1 $8 15 22 2912 2912 2912 2912 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 15 gJSGS 354404078403101 WK -284 LAKE WHEELER RS IOW -3 (REGOLITH WELL 4 26.00 4J `. 26.50 L) C 27.00 L L G] � 27.50 O 2 4 28.00 C6 4� G >- 28 5n 349.00 " 348.50 a 348.00 m O 347.50 -I G} } 4ti r-I 347.00 L M J C Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep o ° 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 0 f- Provisional data Subject to Revision — Daily naxinun depth to water level Daily nininun depth to water level --Daily nean depth to water level Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (27.89 ft Dec 12, 2008) (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 17 USGS 35 1907 53 01 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL) C 0.0 4J - 56.0 O 0.5 45 - 55.5 1.0 - 55.0 Lo 1.5 z 54.5 2.0 L 54.0 '0 2.5 F-1 CU L Q 4J 53.5 CU 3.0 -1 53•0 L CU 4J 3.5 4J 4J 52.5 C6 4.0 Sep Sep Sep Sep L 01 08 15 22 0 2012 2012 2012 2012 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level A Value exceeds "standard difference" threshold. 17 18 USGS 35 1907 53 01 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, NC (SURFICIAL) 55.9 Gam] +0 1.5 54.5 4} 2.0 N CF rl t 54.0 p 2.5 Do G] L) 53.5 z L 3.9 41 no Q 53.9 +o -0 3.5 m 52.5 G} }y r 1 4.0 Qy L 52.0 r-1 C6 4.5 L Q 0 51.5 +} s >- 5.9 J C H 51.9 0 a 5.5 L Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2911 2912 2912 2912 2912 2912 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data 18