20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday September 12.msg_20110913

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, September 13, 2011 11:53 AM
To:
Linwood Peele
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov;
todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, September 12
NC Drought advisory group,
Rainfall coverage during the past week resulted in decent amounts being dropped across parts of North Carolina
(http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /). Most of the higher totals are noticeable on the maps in the mountains and northern
Piedmont regions following the passage of Tropical Storm Lee near the beginning of last week. Elsewhere, widespread
0.5+ inch totals are shown on the map. Areas receiving little to no rain during the past week included parts of the lower
Yadkin basin and upper Lumber basin as well as the eastern Coastal Plain.
The current real -time streamflow maps (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) indicate a mix of
normal and below - normal conditions across North Carolina with two distinctly noticeable areas of normal conditions. The
first is within the Coastal Plain following passage of Hurricane Irene a few weeks ago, the second in the central and
northern mountains region in vicinity of the Tennessee border (following passage of Tropical Storm Lee last week).
Elsewhere, streamflow conditions are depicted in the below - normal ranges. Areas of "less than 10th percentile"
conditions include parts of the Broad and South Fork Catawba basins as well as part of the Triad area. An area of note is
the two streamgages at provisional record low for the calendar day: Little River near Start in Montgomery County and
Drowning Creek near Hoffman (affected by diversions) in Richmond County. This area received little to no rain during the
past week.
As of September 11 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 12 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles
for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage
suggests substantial improvements in overall streamflow relative to 62 percent just a week ago.
Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate Response Network
(http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) continue to be depicted in the normal range for 7 wells, below normal
for 2 wells, and much below normal for the 1 well at Chapel Hill in Orange County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn). Of note on the Chapel Hill well, the
water levels indicated some response to the recent rainfall with a 0.15 ft increase (now trending downward). This well has
been previously mentioned as one where substantial rainfall is needed before any noticeable changes in water levels are
visible.
Water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain are currently depicted in the normal range for 4 wells and above normal
for 2 wells, all in response to the heavy rainfalls that occurred during the passage of Hurricane Irene on August 27.
Changes made for last week's USDM release included multiple category improvements in parts of the southern and
central mountains where 3+ inch rainfall amounts occurred during the passage of Tropical Storm Lee. With exception of a
few minor adjustments, the rest of the state was held at "status quo" for the drought depictions.
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday evening with changes indicated for North Carolina. The D-

nothing area across the Piedmont has been filled in with DO by the USDM author in response to SPI values at 60 -day
periods and longer indicating a return to dryness for that region.
Based on observations of the recent rainfall and hydrologic patterns, there are several issues that will need to be
considered in determining this week's recommendation for the NC depiction on the USDM:
(1) Streams are still in the normal ranges for the parts of the state recently affected by the recent tropical events, primarily
in the Coastal Plain and central /northern mountains.
(2) An area in the lower Yadkin basin and upper Lumber basin is showing 30 -day percent of normal precipitation in the 25
to 50 percent range. This area was moved into DO by the USDM author, but may need further deterioration in the coming
week if no substantial rainfall materializes for this region.
(3) The D- nothing area in the Piedmont was filled in with DO by the USDM author in response to SPI data for 60 -day+
periods indicating dryness.
(4) The D1 depiction is being used for parts of the Broad and South Fork Catawba basins as well as the upper Cape Fear
(Triad) and upper Neuse basins. Despite the rainfall totals indicated for these areas, streamflow conditions continue to be
below normal at most of the USGS gages in this area.
(5) Of particular note, the drought depictions across upper Tar and Neuse basins indicate a very tight gradient from D1 to
D- nothing. The group should check with the USDM author on this particular depiction.
Putting together the above observations, it's my perspective that Draft 1 is probably a reasonable depiction for the state.
The biggest area of concern is the lower Yadkin /upper Lumber where actual conditions may be worst than that depicted
on the daft map. But this week's draft already includes a deterioration for this area.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday evening, draft 1 for this week's version was available with changes indicated for North Carolina. Mark
Svoboda, climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska, is again the USDM author for this
week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made the following specific comments concerning the Carolinas
region.
3) D- nothing donut hole filled in in south - central NC as the past 60 -day, 120 =day and even 6 -month SPI show that wet
spot closing up quite a bit, which is also consistent with #4 ...... I'll listen in on the call tomorrow as well to get some more
local input from NC though ......... might need to go back to AH and link up w/ AH to their south on the impact line

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 9/12/2011 1200 UTC— Created 9/12/11 23:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
Focusing on current streamflow conditions...
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
4

Tuesday, Septenber 13, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, Septenber 06, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
X10
Lew
1024 5 -7 76 -90 >
�
............ - �: High Idol- ranked l
M N ch beds ur
- ---- ---- -�
Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� ab0VV,
mar €Y I r� rm l
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage

of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (September 13 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow
Sep 06
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Sep 13
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
760
cfs
340
cfs
43040
7.9 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
281
cfs
158
cfs
57%
265 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
2.8
cfs
4.9
cfs
41%
12 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
105
cfs
75
cfs
33%
227 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,800
cfs
875
cfs
720
1,220 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
88
cfs
18
cfs
44%
41 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
2,530
cfs
748
cfs
720
1,040 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
307
cfs
49
cfs
730
67 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, September 12, 2011
I, SGS
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, September 12, 2011
As of September 11 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 12 percent of sites across
North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 4
percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching
new minimum for calendar date.
Compared to September 04 (Sunday), the current values indicate substantial improvements in overall streamflow
conditions during course of the past week, considering 62% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and
41 % of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

i
i
If i
September
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New ruin forthe day
October to -, December January February ¢.
2010 2010 2010 2011 2011
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through September 12 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

L
al
13
Previous 30 days
Monday, September 12, 2011
0
u II- ,;
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
0
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
IF
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
a
IM
n/d - Not determined
0
❑
0

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
--- ____ ____ _____mmmm________
23 61 & 10 rc r + 1:3,540,016
0 A ° ' * Editor
11111,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,; X
-!, Layers
-1 ❑Q Automated DM maps (short string)
❑Q (weekly change in 7 -day median percentile)
gall other values >
WeeHy_c_i
nid
Greater than 50 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile increase
Display I Source Selection
Drawing El — A ;6 Arial ��_0___
-- Ground Water --
B I U A � -
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10
L
10 to 25 percentile increase
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
i
No percentile change
0 to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greater than 50 percentile decrease
Display I Source Selection
Drawing El — A ;6 Arial ��_0___
-- Ground Water --
B I U A � -
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10
L

ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
ak tiNES 5%rRGINIA ii i4lte V' Uliarsauu
ta�nt� a 17 . F
Lagan Tappahannock Atlantic
Beckle i Arta
Salud'a
a J ham ° ¢White Mane Beach
Well Unio L' bUl „a 60?'
co1fonia 'Ef!9h � E,ashille
`P askin onok F� gr# Ner >� Virginia
7
Explanation - Percentile class
�.
......ee __
New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not
Bel' ..... — - ....... "
Low hrluah Below Belaw Normal lave hrluGl l aved High Ranked
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

12
USES
351808082374302
TR -065
HC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC
(RE OLITH
30.00
2117,00
0
30,50
S
GF
2116,50
Ly
}
31.00
LO
z
2116.00
} ;F
Qy L
'i o
31.50
+4
FI
2115.50
11
GL]
4J
�
G}
r-I
i
32.00
CU
+}
2115 +00
L
i
C
G
32.50
C
L
Aug
Aug
Sep Sep
ca
20
27
03 10
2011
2011
2011 2011
- - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - --
0 Measured depth to
water level — Depth to water level
12

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
USES
351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE,
HC (RE OLITH
a
2120.0
m
27.0
Q.
a,
28.0
2119.0
0
29.0
2118.0
0
z
Do
' c
30.0
2117.0
t
>
M
r
31.0
2116.0
r
°�
0
32.0
2115.0
4
4J
C6
L
Gi
Q
0
33.0
2114.0
+}
M
>-
J
r
H
a
34.0
�
L
Nov Jan Mar Nay Jul
Sep
2010 2011 2011 2011 2011
2011
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13

14
SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 NC -193)
PIEDMONT RS 1 NR
BARBER
(RE OLIT
m
C
8 90
-
669.10
0
9.00
666.00
y
4
9.1$
668,90
Lo
�F
z
p m 9.2$
668.80
0
Do G] L
m
Q
9.30
668.70
L
°
9.40
668.60
CU
L
�
C
C
p
9.5$
668.50
7
Aug Rug
Sep
Sep
ca
20 27
03
10
2011 2011
2011
2011
- - -- Provisional Data Subject
to Revision
- - --
0
Measured depth to water level
— Depth to water
level
14

(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT
a
672 +0
1
6 +0
-069
0
(RE t LITH)
CU
�
6.5
671 +5
4J
465 +88
�
F1
7 +9
Q
671 +6
G
465 +75
45 +88
} L)
465 +78
z
' C
7 +5
670 +5
L
0
45 +85
8 +0
Qb
670 +0
r
m
'i o
45 +98
�}
L
8 +5
669 +5
-4
L
Q
a
CU
G
45 +95
a=
°
9 +0
465 +55
669 +0
s
-J
L
+}
r
H
�V
0
a
9 +5
L
�
668 +5
L
Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep
2019 2011 2911 2011 2011 2911
46 +95
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
465 +45
C
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
USGS
355522079 143001 OR
-069
(NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H
(RE t LITH)
45 76
+
465 +88
�
F1
Q
45 +75
465 +75
45 +88
465 +78
Lo
0
45 +85
465 +65
Qb
Qy L
m
'i o
45 +98
465 +68
L
Q
Gi
DO
45 +95
465 +55
°1
'i
�
L
+}
46 +$$
�V
465 +58
GU
L
�
�
46 +95
465 +45
C
L
Aug
Aug
Sep
Sep
ca
29
27
93
19
2911
2911 2911
2911
- - -- Provisional data Subject to
Revision - - --
Measured depth to
water
level — Depth
to water level
15

(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16
USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH)
a
42.6
469.5
w
cu
cu
.0
42.5
469.0
Q.
S
Q
43.
468.5
0
S
W
43.5
468.8
d
>
}
z
44.9
467.5
L L
O
J
}'
to
44.5
467.8
+4
r
�
1
45.8
466.5
m
L
r-I
C6
45.5
466.$
L
G
M
>-
46.9
465.5
J
10
H
r
0
CE G
46.5
465.8
L
Now Jan Mar May Jul
Sep
2019 2911 2911 2911 2911
2011
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16

17
USGS 353 19077153801
PI -532
(NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI
IAL)
1.9
55 +$
�
s
O
2.9
54.9
�
rn
L
*'
G]
3.0
53 +$
4.9
L7
x
a�
52.9
c,
r-I
5 +�
51.9
O
0
L
L
B +$
59'$
CU
ai
+.
7.9
}
CU
-1
s
49.9
L
8.0 8 +$
48.9
CU
s
L
9.$
_
�
c
G
Aug
Aug
Sep Sep
o
29
27
93 19
L
ro
2911
2911
2911 2011
- - -- Provisional
data Subject to Revision - - --
- Depth
to water level
Value
exceeds "standard difference" threshold.
— Lowest
recorded water
level
prior to MY2911 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
17

18
USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532
(NC-160)
NR SIMPSON, N
URFI IAL)
O
4ti
1 +$
5555 +9
Q-
2 ry �y
.0
54 +$
S
41
o%
3 +0
+$
52
+$
41
0 55 +0
51
0
+}
+$
i
a 6 +9
CU
59 +$
}y
7
m
-W
+9
+9
L
C6
p
8
Gi
P
+9
48 +9
s
9
H
o
+$
Now Jan
Mar
May Jul
Sep
C
L
2918 2911
2911
2911 2911
2911
0
— Daily
nean depth to water level
Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional data
— Lowest
recorded water level
prior to
MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
18