20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday October 31.msg_20111101

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, November 01, 2011 11:09 AM
To:
Linwood Peele
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov;
todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, October 31
NC Drought advisory group,
Precipitation totals across North Carolina during the past week were mixed with the much of the widespread 0.5+ inch
totals focused across the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain regions (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /). Totals across
the mountains region and parts of the western Piedmont were commonly less than 0.5 inch, adding to a growing dryness
that appears to be deepening across parts of western North Carolina.
While the rainfall received in recent weeks has been helpful, the overall pattern has not been sufficiently sustained across
the state to result in any kind of widespread long -term improvements in streamflow conditions. The mix of streamflow
conditions noted in the past few weeks continues to be depicted on the current real -time streamflow map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). The most widespread below - normal streamflow
conditions is across the southern mountains and parts of the western Piedmont.
Examination of the 28 -day average streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map)
indicates 6 sites from the Sand Hills to the upper Neuse /Tar basins with streamflows in the "less than 10th percentile"
range. Likewise, 5 and 2 sites in the Broad River and Little Tennessee River basins, respectively, depict 28 -day average
flows in the "less than 10th percentile" range.
As of October 30 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 42 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for
7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests
declines in overall streamflow relative to 21 percent just a week ago.
Moving into the November, there continues to have been very little change in the overall groundwater depictions shown
on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html). Water levels at
the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells continue to be depicted in the normal range for 8 wells
and much below normal for 2 wells: one near Marston in Scotland County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) and the well at Chapel Hill in Orange
County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn).
The water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain continue to be depicted in the normal range for 5 wells and below
normal for 1 well near Grantham in Wayne County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn).
As of October 31, the water level at the Chapel Hill well is currently 46.38 feet below land surface (about 2.5 feet below
the level this time last year), close to the record low water level for October at 46.58 ft and likewise close to the period of
record (POR) low of 46.77 ft set in December 1956.
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.

Changes to the NC depictions in last week's USDM included some trimming of the DO across the central southern
Piedmont as well as minor DO reductions across parts of the northern Piedmont in the upper Neuse and Tar River basins.
Given the overall rainfall patterns noted in the past few weeks ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /) as well as the mixed
streamflow conditions (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap), the NC group may want to
consider a couple areas where changes to the drought depictions may be justified:
(1) Reduction in the DO lobe that juts across Wake County into upper Tar River basin... based on the recent 7 -day and 30-
day percent of normal precipitation patterns. The precipitation patterns are more mixed for the 30 -day values. Likewise
for current and 28 -day average streamflows (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map).
(2) Re- examine the northern D1 region from Chatham County northward... maintained in part due to the Chapel Hill well
that is close to POR low water level. Discussion in recent weeks also has focused on the Falls Lake watershed, in which
lake levels at upstream two impoundments (Little River Reservoir, Lake Michie) continue to be below spillway, thus
affecting the water levels in Falls Lake despite recent rainfalls.
(3) Expansion of DO from the Little Tennessee basin across the upper French Broad basin, Catawba basin, and perhaps
upper Yadkin basin( ?) ... based on combination of rainfall patterns and expanding below - normal streamflow conditions
noted across this area. Growing area of 30 -day percent of normal precipitation in the 25 -50 percent range in addition to
the expanding area of below - normal streamflow conditions noted across the area.
(4) Maintain current D1 across part of the Broad River basin where streamflow conditions at several USGS streamgages
have been noted in the "less than 10th percentile range."
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Brian Fuchs, climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska, is the USDM author for this
week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he indicated that he had received comments from NC, but was waiting
to hear from the NC group following the Tuesday afternoon conference call.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 11/1/2011 1200 UTC— Created 11/1/11 13:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: I � •
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
4

Tuesday, Mouenber 01, 2011 09 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, October 25, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
X10
Lew
1024 25-75 76 -90 >
�
............ - �: High Idol- ranked l
M N ch beds ur
- ---- ---- -�
Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV,
mar €Y I r� rm l
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box

appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (November 01 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow
Oct 25
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Nov Ol
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
90
cfs
69
cfs
4060
17 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
132
cfs
104
cfs
40%
263 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
2.4
cfs
14
cfs
780
18 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
271
cfs
267
cfs
780
342 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,170
cfs
1,010
cfs
73%
1,380 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
22
cfs
23
cfs
530
43 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
780
cfs
727
cfs
630
1,150 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
54
cfs
55
cfs
710
78 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, October 31, 2011
I, SGS
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, October 31, 2011
As of October 30 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 42 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 12 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to October 23 (Sunday), the current values indicate declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of
the past week, considering 21 % of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 2% of sites were below 10th
percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

i
i
If i
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New ruin fcrthe day
Kra N N I ` ASSN
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through October 31 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

L
L
Explanation
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
Unregulated Regulated
6
IM
0
❑
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Em
IF
E
a
IM
0

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
61 6
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-1 ❑Q Automated DM maps (short string)
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Greater than 50 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greater than 50 percentile decrease
Display I Source Selection rr 1
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Drawing
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10
10 to 25 percentile increase
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
No percentile change
0 to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greater than 50 percentile decrease
Display I Source Selection rr 1
❑ : Ai
10 B z U _d
Drawing
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10

ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

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- - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - --
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water level — Depth to water level
12

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
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(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
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(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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Period of approved data
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( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
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(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16
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( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16

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---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
0
Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level
17

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Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional data
— Lowest
recorded water level
prior to MY2011 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007)
18