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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday October 10.msg_20111011Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, October 11, 2011 11:01 AM To: Linwood Peele Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, October 10 NC Drought advisory group, According to the precipitation totals maps (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /), no rainfall occurred across most of North Carolina during the past week. As of Tuesday morning, a storm system was moving northward across the state providing somewhat widespread rainfall coverage at the moment. The current real -time streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) continues to depict a mix of conditions across North Carolina. An area of below - normal streamflows across most of the Piedmont continues to expand with more gages depicted in the "less than 10 percentile" range. Of particular note, numerous gages in the "less than 10th percentile" range predominate from the Sand Hills region northward into the Triangle area. Although widespread normal streamflow conditions is still visible in the central Coastal Plain, streamflows have dropped into the below - normal ranges at several gages within the Coastal Plain. In a similar manner, streamflows in the below - normal ranges are returning to parts of the central /northern mountains near the Tennessee border. Two particular areas mentioned last week that bear continued close monitoring are (1) the southern mountains in the Hiwassee and Little Tennessee River basins as well as (2) the Catawba and Broad River basins. As of October 09 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 51 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests declines in overall streamflow relative to 24 percent just a week ago. As noted last week, water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate Response Network (http://ogwOl.er.usgs.gov/crn/StateMaps/NC.html) continue to be depicted in the normal range for 8 wells and much below normal for 2 wells: one near Marston in Scotland County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) and the well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn). Water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain are depicted in the normal range for 4 wells, above normal for 1 wells, and below normal for 1 well near Grantham in Wayne County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn). A couple notes concerning the groundwater levels: (1) Where levels are depicted as being within the normal ranges, the water levels are close to the threshold between normal and below - normal depictions for many of these wells, and (2) the season of transition for groundwater levels is imminent where water levels will eventually begin to increase following the seasonal decreases in both human - induced and natural demands. Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. Aside from a very minor DO /D1 expansion in the extreme headwaters for the Upper French Broad and Little Tennessee River basins, the drought depictions for North Carolina were held at "status quo" for last week's release. Because of decreases in streamflow during the past week, there appears to be some justification to depict worsening drought conditions. One issue discussed last week was the expansion of DO across parts of the southern mountains based on recent precipitation and streamflow conditions. One other concern at the present time is the increase in gages with streamflows depicted in the "less than 10th percentile" range, particularly in the Broad River basin as well as the region from the Sand Hills into the Triangle area. A complicating factor for this week's depiction is the current storm system moving across the state. Although the procedures are not supposed to factor in future events, there have been instances where we used "status quo" when existing or imminent widespread rainfall is occurring. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. Rich Tinker, meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the "preliminary thoughts" email, he made no specific comments concerning the Carolinas region. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe= precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 10/10/2011 1200 UTC— Created 10/10/11 23:55 UTC -- Streamflow -- 4: I � • Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: httD:Hwaterwatch. usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma Current conditions... 3 Tuesday, October 11, 2011 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, October 04, 2011 08 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. X10 Lew 1024 25-75 76 -90 > � ............ - �: High Idol- ranked l M N ch beds ur - ---- ---- -� Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV, mar €Y I r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (October 11 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Oct 04 Current flow (% of) Median Oct 11 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 416 cfs Eqp - -0 14.0 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 232 cfs 107 cfs 43% 248 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 2.4 cfs 1.0 cfs 8.30 12.0 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 116 cfs 90 cfs 36% 250 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 852 cfs 808 cfs 630 1,280 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 20 cfs 19 cfs 440 43 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 770 cfs 676 cfs 650 1,040 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 43 cfs 39 cfs 55% 71 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc. water .usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, October 10, 2011 I, SGS 5 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, October 10, 2011 As of October 09 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 51 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 13 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to October 02 (Sunday), the current values indicate declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 24% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 3% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable i i If i -# #. Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe New rain fcrthe day October November December January February March # 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through October 10 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 0 Previous 7 days Monday, October 10, 2011 L tip§ iY tit s r Explanation No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined Unregulated Regulated s 0 ❑ Q Em IF E a IM s The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help --- ____ ____ _____mmmm________ 23 61 & 10 rc r + 1:3,540,016 ............................................................................................................................................. ..............................' x -!, Layers -1 ❑Q Automated DM maps (short string) ❑Q (weekly change in 7 -day median percentile) gall other values > WeeHy_c_i nid Greater than 50 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile increase O -? ,f., xv a Editor Display I Source Selection)I p' rr Drawing ❑ w A 101 Arial �10___ -- Ground Water -- B I U A � + - Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 9 10 to 25 percentile increase 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase 0 No percentile change 0 to 5 percentile decrease , 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease O -? ,f., xv a Editor Display I Source Selection)I p' rr Drawing ❑ w A 101 Arial �10___ -- Ground Water -- B I U A � + - Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 9 ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. AWES VIRGINIA h rlQtte v "! 17 Uliarsauu unto ; F ok Logan Oak .,i V I Ek {i. A Ta,pp""A'annock Atlantic into Bedtle Sapid �tdti ham ° �Welo U"nio White Mane Beach 60 , 0 1 g Co �omaJ 1 1413h l� t (E,astville ° " "P asking Oanok" f� grt Me Virginia 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ....... " Low hrluch ''""' ""'Bel' Nonnal love hrluGl l oved High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 10 11 USES 351 080823 '430 TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC (REGOLITH) 31.00 2116.00 CU Q. 31.50 2115.50 4J 32.00 z 2115.00 0 (U (U L ,-I = m 32.50 CU L (U 2114.50 L 33.00 CU -P m 2114.00 CL C CS L 33.50 Sep Sep Oct Oct 17 24 01 08 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 11 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.E 2129.9 m Q. a, 28.9 2119.9 0 29 +0 2118.9 0 z Do ' c 39.9 2117.9 t > M r r 31.9 2116.9 °� 0 32 +$ 2115.9 4 4J C6 L Gi G: p 33.9 2114.9 a= M >- J C H G 34 +0 � L Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2919 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 13 SGS 3540 x'0803 01 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 8.28 669.80 C .0 CU CU Q. 8.40 - 669.60 8.60 - 669.40 z 8.80 669.20 (U L m 9.00 669.00 L (U CU 4J 9.20 668.80 L CU 9.40 668.60 m CL C 9.60 668.40 L 0 Sep Sep Oct Oct 17 24 01 08 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 13 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 672 +0 1 6 +0 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL 0 (RE t LITH) CU � 4J 6.5 671 +5 465 +55 e« 46 +00 465 +50 c, 7 +0 671 +0 G } L) ' C 7 +5 670 +5 z L a z 8 +0 670 +0 r 465 +40 (U , �} L 8 +5 46 +15 669 +5 a 465 +35 CU 4� ° 9 +0 669 +0 +} s -J Qy s 46 +20 r H G 9.5 668 +5 � O Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep CL7 2010 2911 2911 2011 2011 2911 Gi +4 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data 465 +25 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 14 USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) 45 +95 465 +55 e« 46 +00 465 +50 c, 46 +05 465 +45 a z 46 +10 465 +40 (U , m 46 +15 465 +35 L 4� Qy s 46 +20 465,3$ L O Gi +4 46 +25 465 +25 CL G] C � d 46 +30 465 +20 � CL7 Sep Sep Oct Oct 17 24 01 08 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 14 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) a 42.0 469.5 w cu cu .0 42.5 469.0 Q. S Q 43. 468.5 0 W 43.5 468.8 > } z 44.9 467.5 L L O J }' to 44.5 467.8 +4 r � to 45.8 466.5 m r-I L C6 45.5 466.$ L Q +} G M >- 46.9 465.5 J C H � CE 46.5 465.8 L Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2919 2911 2011 2911 2011 2011 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 16 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) 2.40 53.80 .0 CU CU Q. 2.60 53.60 2.80 53.40 z 0 3.00 (U 53.20 (U L m L 3.20 CU (U 4J 53.00 D 0 3.40 L CU 52.80 m CL 3.60 C 52.60 L Sep Sep Oct Oct 17 24 01 08 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 16 17 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti CU 2 ry +9 54 +0 S 41 0% 53 +0 +$ 52 +0 41 5 +0 51 +} +0 tq +09 +9 } CU r - 7 +0 +0 rl L C6 p 8 +0 Gi P 48 +0 s N 9 +0 C o Now Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2010 2011 2911 2911 2911 2911 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007) 17