HomeMy WebLinkAbout20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday October 03.msg_20111004Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, October 04, 2011 11:37 AM
To:
Linwood Peele
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
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woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, October 03
NC Drought advisory group,
Rainfall totals and spatial distribution across North Carolina during the past week were not as high and widespread,
respectively, as that which occurred just a few weeks ago. Most of this past week's rainfall was concentrated in the
eastern half of the state where 0.5+ inch totals were fairly common ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /). Little to no rainfall
occurred in the western half during the past week.
The current real -time streamflow maps (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) depict a mix of
conditions across most of the Piedmont with below - normal and normal conditions. However, after a previous week of
normal and above - normal conditions across the Piedmont following the rainfall a few weeks ago, there appears to be a
return shift towards below - normal conditions in this region. The only regions with widespread normal conditions are (1)
much of the Coastal Plain and (2) the central /northern mountains near the Tennessee border. Two particular areas that
need closer monitoring in the coming weeks are (1) the southern mountains in the Hiwassee and Little Tennessee River
basins as well as (2) the Catawba and Broad River basins. There are a couple USGS streamgages in these regions with
streamflows depicted in the "less than 10th percentile" range.
As of October 02 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 24 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for
7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests
some declines in overall streamflow relative to 8 percent just a week ago.
Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate Response Network
(http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) are depicted in the normal range for 8 wells and much below normal for
2 wells: one near Marston in Scotland County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) and the well at Chapel Hill in Orange
County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn).
Water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain continue to be depicted in the normal range for 3 wells, above normal for
2 wells, and much above normal for 1 well near Simpson in Pitt County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn).
Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. The USDM author acknowledged the recent
rainfall across the Carolinas, but noted below - normal precipitation is still visible in the 90+ day percent of normal values.
Changes to last week's map included an across - the -board 1- category improvement for the Piedmont region with
reductions in D0, D1, and D2 (Broad River basin). An area of D1 depiction was maintained from parts of the southern
Coastal Plain and Sand Hills into the eastern fringe of the Piedmont.
Based on observations of the recent rainfall and hydrologic patterns, the use of "status quo" may be appropriate for this
week's release to allow for continued monitoring of conditions across the Piedmont. If there are any improvements to be
made, it would be limited to minor reductions in D1 across parts of the southern Coastal Plain and Sand Hills( ?). Several
areas need to be closely monitored: (1) the southern mountains in the Hiwassee and Little Tennessee River basins as
well as the (2) southwest Piedmont region within the Catawba and Broad River basins where several USGS streamgages
are depicted with streamflows in the "less that 10th percentile" range.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041
Mobile: (919) 830 -6235
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. Rich Tinker, meteorologist with the Climate
Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release. In the "preliminary thoughts"
email, he made the following specific comments concerning the Carolinas region:
Good rains in parts of Carolinas; still dry 90+ days in worser ( ?) areas, only past 180 days farther north;
considerations pending conference call.
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/
Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 10/3/2011 1200 UTC— Created 10/3/11 22:46 UTC
-- Streamflow --
Focusing on current streamflow conditions...
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
3
Tuesday, October 04, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, Septenber 27, 2011 07 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
X10
Lew
1024 25-75 76 -90 >
�
............ - �: High Idol- ranked l
M N ch beds ur
- ---- ---- -�
Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� ab0VV,
mar €Y I r� rm l
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (October 04 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow
Sep 27
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Oct 04
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
399
cfs
416
cfs
29170
14.0 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
410
cfs
232
cfs
80%
290 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
2.0
cfs
2.4
cfs
170
14.0 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
379
cfs
116
cfs
460
250 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,150
cfs
852
cfs
670
1,270 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
30
cfs
20
cfs
50%
40 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,200
cfs
770
cfs
740
1,040 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
67
cfs
43
cfs
610
71 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, October 03, 2011
I, SGS
5
To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, October 03, 2011
As of October 02 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 24 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 3 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to September 25 (Sunday), the current values indicate some declines in overall streamflow conditions during
course of the past week, considering 8% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 2% of sites were
below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable
i
i
If i
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New rain fcrthe day
October llo - b December
2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through October 03 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
H
Q
Previous 7 days
Monday, October 0, 2011
L
3 �Fr
{
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
0
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
IF
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
a
IM
n/d - Not determined
0
❑
s
The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
--- ____ ____ _____mmmm________
23 61 & 10 rc r + 1:3,540,016
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http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
9
10 to 25 percentile increase
5 to 10 percentile increase
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http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
9
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
10
11
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- - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - --
0 Measured depth to
water level — Depth to water level
11
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
12
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2911 2911
2911
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— Daily nean depth to
water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
12
13
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Sep
Sep
Sep
Oct
10
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01
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2011
2011
2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision
----
13
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
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(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
14
USGS
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Sep
Sep
Oct
Lo
10
17
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01
2011
2011 2011
2011
- - -- Provisional data Subject to
Revision - - --
Measured depth to
water
level — Depth
to water level
14
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH)
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(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
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---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
16
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— Daily nean depth to water level
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— Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007)
17