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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday November 28.msg_20111129Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:48 AM To: Linwood Peele Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, November 28 NC Drought advisory group, Precipitation across North Carolina during the past week is attributed to a storm system that has moved across the state over the past few days. As of Tuesday morning, precipitation totals of 0.5+ inch were widespread from the interior Coastal Plain to the mountains (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /). Higher totals of 1.5 and 2+ inches were widespread in the mountains as well as a narrow band from the Sand Hills regions northward into the Triad region. The effects of the rainfall are very visible on the current real -time streamflow map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). Widespread above - normal and much - above - normal streamflow conditions are currently in effect for the mountains and Piedmont regions. Widespread normal streamflow conditions are depicted for much of the Coastal Plain. While these depictions are pleasing to the eye, users need to be reminded these conditions are truly "at the moment" conditions. And the final effects of the rainfalls on the streams cannot be assessed until another few days. Examination of the 28 -day average streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) continues to indicate some areas in the Broad /Catawba River basins as well as the southern Coastal Plain near the SC border with streams in below - normal conditions. As of November 27 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 15 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests minor improvements in overall streamflow relative to 17 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells depicted on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) continue to echo the patterns noted last week. That is, in the normal range for 4 wells, above normal for 3 wells, and continued much below normal for 2 wells: • well near Marston in Scotland County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) • well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn). The water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain likewise continues to be depicted in the normal range for 5 wells and continued below normal for the 1 well near Grantham in Wayne County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn). Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. No changes were made to last week's release due to (1) no major issues justifying any adjustments and (2) shortened schedule for the USDM due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The USDM author has hinted at the possibility of some 1- category improvements for NC, particularly in areas designated as Short-term drought depictions. But areas with long -term drought depictions may still need further evaluation. Probably the area in North Carolina subject to improvement will be in the mountains region. We can discuss further during the telecom. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. David Miskus, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release. In the "preliminary thoughts" email, he made the following comments concerning the Carolinas region: Southeast: Mod -heavy rains ( >1.5 ") fell on s &e AR, most of LA and MS, and into wTN, with more rain ( >1 ") falling on parts of AL & GA. The storm event was still occurring today, with decent rains expected in the Carolinas. I would expect some 1 -cat improvements, especially in areas designated Short-term. The Long -term drought areas will probably need more precipitation to alleviate long -term deficits. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe= precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 1 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 11/29/2011 1200 UTC— Created 11/29/11 13:40 UTC -- Streamflow -- Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap Current conditions... 3 Tuesday, Mouenber 29, 2011 09 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Monday, Houenber 21, 2011 16 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. X10 Lew 1024 5 -7 76 -90 > � ............ - �: High Idol- ranked l O N ch beds ur - ---- ---- -� Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l�) aD0VV, mar €Y I r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (November 29 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Nov 21 Current flow (% of) Median Nov 29 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 59 cfs 74 cfs 1350 55 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 189 cfs 212 cfs 470 447 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 18 cfs 18 cfs 42% 43 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 644 cfs 1,310 cfs 2060 635 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,310 cfs 2,910 cfs 1480 1,970 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 30 cfs 411 cfs 734% 56 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 904 cfs 8,650 cfs 5970 1,450 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 116 cfs 823 cfs 5800 142 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, Houenber 26, 2011 I, SGS 5 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, Houenber 26, 2011 As of November 27 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 15 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 3 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to November 20 (Sunday), the current values indicate minor improvements in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 17% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 2% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable 1 �f f Less than 25th percentile Less than 10th percentile New min forthe clay Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day indicated percentile range or love ON AN Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through November 28 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html L ■ �n�� .. 4a�� `fit ,�� 1� '`� Previous 30 days Monday, November 28, 2011 HE Explanation Unregulated Regulated No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D ❑ D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) r s' D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined ❑ s F The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit `view Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help Ei Leers ❑► Automated DM maps (short string) E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percen' ® gall othervalues? lb 10 to 25 percentile increase 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase No percentile change 4 to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease IF 10 to 25 percentile decrease Ei Leers ❑► Automated DM maps (short string) E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percen' ® gall othervalues? lb 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E LZ w, Display Source I Selection Drawing > } ❑ ,vial B U — ' _i -- Ground Water -- 0 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase No percentile change 4 to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E LZ w, Display Source I Selection Drawing > } ❑ ,vial B U — ' _i -- Ground Water -- 0 Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. ok ti!VES SP1 IINIA untoIirl4ttev' 'i 17 - ��lQiarsaw,` .Logan oak G Ta,ppafi'annock Atlantic into Beckle Saluda ° , tiir��ham�� ° ¢White Mane Beach .Welo Unio L' but 60 ^i' o �igsklnial Hhfis E,ashrille aski., �ako , N W Virginia 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ....... " Low hrluch Below Below Nonnal love hrluGl l over High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 10 11 USES 351 080823 '430 TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC (REGOLITH) 33.60 4J CU 2113.40 CU 33.80 2113.20 m 34.00 z 2113.00 (U L ,-I = m 34.20 CU L (U -p D 0 2112.80 34.40 L CU -p m CL 2112.60 C 34.60 Nov Nov Nov Nov 05 12 19 26 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 11 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.9 212919 m Q Q. .0 28.0 2119.9 4 4 2919 2118.9 S d Duo 39.9 2117.9 z 31.9 2118.9 4J M 32.9 211519 } cu �} 4 33.0 2114.9 L G 34.0 211319 M J H C � a 35.0 L Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 13 SGS 3540 x'0803 01 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 6.00 672.00 4J CU Q. 6.50 671.50 4J 7.00 671.00 > z 7.50 670.50 (U L m L (U 4J 8.00 670.00 CU D 0 L O 4J 8.50 669.50 CU 4J m 4J C CL 9.00 669.00 L 0 Nov Nov Nov Nov 05 12 19 26 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 13 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 672 +0 1 6 +0 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL 0 (RE t LITH) CU � 4J 6.5 671 +5 465 +25 e« ^i 46 +30 465 +20 c, 7 +9 671 +6 G } L) C 7 +5 670 +5 z L a m -0 8 +0 670 +0 r 465 +19 (U , �} L 8 +5 46 +45 669 +5 -I 4J C6 465 +95 L Gi 4� ° 9 +0 669 +0 +} s -J s 46 +50 r H G 9.5 668 +5 0 O Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now CL7 2011 2911 2911 2011 2911 2911 Gi +4 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data 464 +95 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 14 USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) to 46 +25 465 +25 e« ^i 46 +30 465 +20 c, 46 +35 465 +15 a 46 +49 465 +19 (U , m 46 +45 465 +95 L' s 46 +50 465 +66 r-I L O Gi +4 46 +55 464 +95 CL G] C � d 46 +68 464 +98 � CL7 Nov Nov Nov Nov $5 12 19 26 2911 2911 2911 2911 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 14 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) a 43.0 468.5 w cu Q Q. 43.5 468.9 44.9 467.5 0 z Do L) 1 4. 44.5 467.9 L 45.9 466.5 r 2 cu L 45.5 466.9 C6 Gib Q +} ° 46.9 465.5 s J r H 0 CE 46.5 465.9 L Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 16 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) 2.88 53.40 .0 CU CU Q. 3.00 53.20 3.20 53.00 z 0 3.40 (U 52.80 (U L m L 3.60 CU (U -p - 52.60 D 0 3.80 L CU 52.40 -p m CL 4.00 C 52.20 L Nov Nov Nov Nov 05 12 19 26 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 16 17 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1.9 55.0 Q- 0 2 +9 y4 *0 0% 3.9 #$ 52.0 41 0 5.0 51.0 0 �- #09t9 } CU r +. 7.9 49.0 rl L C6 p 8.9 Gi P 48.0 s N 9.0 o Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now 2011 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007) 17