The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday November 21.msg_20111121Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Monday, November 21, 2011 10:59 PM To: Linwood Peele Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, November 21 NC Drought advisory group, Precipitation across North Carolina during the past week produced a pattern of "have and have nots" with the split across a line running from the Mecklenburg /Union Counties line northeast towards Northampton County (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /). West of this line, widespread precipitation totals were 0.5+ inch with the highest amounts (2+ inches) from Gaston County through Davidson County into the Triad region. East of this line, the totals were less than 0.5 inch with exception of extreme eastern Coastal Plain (including the central Outer Banks) where some totals exceeded 2 inches. Last week's rainfall is reflected in the streamflow conditions depicted on the current real -time streamflow map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). A mix of conditions in the normal and below - normal ranges continues to be visible across most of the state; however, the extent of below - normal conditions noted last week is not as widespread on this week's map. Further, the number of gages with flows in the "less than 10th percentile" range also has decreased for the moment., most notably in the Broad and Catawba River basins as well as across the Sand Hills region and northern Piedmont. Examination of the 28 -day average streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) likewise indicates some minor decreases in the number of streamgages with conditions in the "less than 10th percentile" range. As of November 20 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 17 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests improvements in overall streamflow relative to 34 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells depicted on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) continue to echo the patterns noted last week. That is, in the normal range for 7 wells, below normal for 1 well near Cruso in Haywood County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 352315082484401 &ncd =crn), and continued much below normal for 2 wells: • well near Marston in Scotland County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) • well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn). The water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain likewise continues to be depicted in the normal range for 5 wells and continued below normal for the 1 well near Grantham in Wayne County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn). Draft 2 for this week's release was available as of late Monday evening with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Changes to the NC depictions in last week's USDM included expansion of D1 in the Broad /Catawba and Little Tennessee basins as well as some minor DO expansion in the Little Tennessee basin. As noted last week, we've shifted into the time of year where natural and man -made demands on the hydrologic system are declining, evaporation is down, and agricultural activity has declined. With the passage of storm systems of varying size and precipitation amounts across the state, the overall streamflow conditions has been a "roller coaster ride" from week to week while groundwater levels at some wells have responded to the recent rainfalls and shift in seasons. Given the rainfall coverage across western North Carolina, it doesn't appear that any deterioration is warranted for that region in this week's USDM depiction for the state. Even within eastern North Carolina where relatively lower amounts of rainfall occurred last week, some short-term improvements appears to have occurred in streamflow conditions. Thus would suggest a recommendation that "status quo" be applied across the state for this week's release. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of late Monday evening, draft 2 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Anthony Artusa, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 2, he made no specific comments concerning the Carolinas region, but did mention his Tuesday focus would include North Carolina. This week's USDM release is on an accelerated and shortened schedule due to the Thanksgiving holiday. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 11/21/2011 1200 UTC— Created 11/21/11 21:55 UTC -- Streamflow -- Focusing on current streamflow conditions... Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap Current conditions... 4 Monday, Houenber 21, 2011 16 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, Mouenber 15, 2011 08 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. X10 Lew 1024 5 -7 76 -90 > � ............ - �: High Idol- ranked l O N ch beds ur - ---- ---- -� Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l�) aD0VV, mar €Y I r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (November 21 evening) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Nov 15 Current flow (% of) Median Nov 21 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 97 cfs 59 cfs 148% 40 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 217 cfs 189 cfs 490 386 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 3.2 cfs 18 cfs 600 33 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 256 cfs 644 cfs 1960 328 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,010 cfs 1,310 cfs 820 1,600 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 24 cfs 30 cfs 56% 54 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 748 cfs 904 cfs 66% 1,380 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 59 cfs 116 cfs 1050 111 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Sunday, Houenber 20, 2011 I, SGS 6 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Sunday, Houenber 20, 2011 As of November 20 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 17 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 2 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to November 13 (Sunday), the current values indicate improvements in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 34% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 9% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable 1 �f f Less than 25th percentile Less than 10th percentile New min forthe clay Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day indicated percentile range or love ON AN Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through November 20 (Sunday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 8 Previous 30 days Sunday, November 20, 2011 102 Explanation Unregulated Regulated No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D ❑ D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) r s' D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined ❑ 0 ru ' S The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit `view Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools 'Window Help IF Ei Leers ❑► Automated DM maps (short string) E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percen' ® gall othervalues? fq 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E Display Source Selection-] Drawing r} ❑ trial �. 1 B 1 U w _i • -- Ground Water -- 10 5 to 10 p•ercentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase No percentile change 4 to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 p•ercentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E Display Source Selection-] Drawing r} ❑ trial �. 1 B 1 U w _i • -- Ground Water -- 10 Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. ONES VIRGINIA ft�unty �I"frloCte�� a '�� 17 Uniarsauu ok p'f Logan 4 pap �a,ppAhannock Atlantic into Bedtle $alud'a 4 ° [min harp t g'�' ° White $tone Beach 4L 1, Welo Unio L k]ur, ?: We o nial ki igh E,ashriIIe R asks gan4k F� Ori New Virginia 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ....... " Low hrluch Below Bel¢w Normal l ove hrluGl l cve� High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 12 USES 351 080823 '430 TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC (REGOLITH) 2113.60 CU 33.60 e« 2113.40 33.80 2113.20 z Q.- 34.00 (U L .0 m L 2113.00 CU (U -p 34.20 D 0 L 2112.80 CU -p m CL 34.40 C L Oct Nov Nov Nov 29 05 12 19 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 12 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.E 2129.9 m Q. .0 28 +9 2119.9 4 29 +9 2118.9 S Q Duo 39.9 2117.9 z QL 31.9 2118.9 0 32.9 2115.9 } cu �} 4 33 +$ 2114.9 L cu G 34 +$ 2113.9 M J H C � CE 35 +6 L Jan Mar Nay Jul Sep Nov 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 14 SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 6.00 672.00 CU Q. 6.50 671.50 7.50 670.50 L 4J 8.00 670.00 CU 0 4J 8.50 669.50 CU 4J C CL 9.00 669.00 0 Oct Nov Nov Nov 29 05 12 19 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 14 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a USGS 672 +0 1 6 +0 0 CU � 46 +25 4J 6.5 671 +5 F1 y Q 46 +30 7 +9 671 +0 G 46 +35 } L) C 7 +5 465 +15 670 +5 z L 4 m -0 8 +0 670 +0 r 465 +10 Qy L �} L 8 +5 669 +5 -4 C6 46 +45 CU 4� ° 9 +0 669 +0 +} s J C H G 9.5 224 668 +5 � Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now 465 +00 CL7 2911 2911 2011 2911 2011 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data L Period of approved data 46 +55 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) 46 +25 465 +25 F1 y Q 46 +30 465 +20 46 +35 465 +15 Lo 46 +40 465 +10 Qy L m 'i m 46 +45 465 +05 L Q Gi DO 46 +50 465 +00 G} 'i L O *' 46 +55 464 +95 GU m 46 +60 464 +90 c � 0 L Oct Nov Nov Nov ca 29 05 12 19 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 15 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) a 43.0 468.5 w cu Q. 43.5 468.9 44.9 467.5 0 z Do 1 4. 44.5 467.9 L 45.9 466.5 r °2 cu cu L 45.5 466.9 a cu Q +} ° 46.9 465.5 s J r H 0 CE 46.5 465.9 L Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 17 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) 2.00 C 54.00 CU 2.50 53.50 m 3.00 z 53.00 (U L m —4 = 3.50 CU L (U D 0 4J 52.50 L 4.00 CU 4 CL 52.00 L 4.50 0 Oct Nov Nov Nov 29 05 12 19 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 17 18 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1.9 55.9 Q- 0 ry 2 +9 54 *$ S o% 3.9 53.9 #$ 52•$ 41 0 5.0 51.9 0 �- #09t9 } CU r -W 7.9 49.9 rl L C6 p 8.9 Gi P 48.$ s N 9.9 0 o Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now 0 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997) 18