20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday November 12 2012.msg_20121113

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, November 13, 2012 11:25 AM
To:
Linwood Peele
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Linwood Peele;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov;
Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody; wly; Jackson, Donna
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, November 12, 2012
NC Drought advisory group,
Precipitation maps for North Carolina ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure)
indicate yet another week of very little to no rainfall across much of the state. The areas depicted as having received
measurable rainfall are the (1) eastern Coastal Plain where most areas were range of 0.25 to 0.5 inch with some 0.5+
inch along the central Outer Banks, and (2) the mountains region where widely scattered occurrences of 0.5+ inch are
noted on the maps. For the Piedmont and Sand Hills regions, the past 7 days is the THIRD consecutive week with no
practically rainfall. The rainfall in the mountains occurred overnight into the early morning hours Tuesday morning just
prior to the USDM cutoff.
As noted last week, the lack of rainfall in the central part of North Carolina is reflected very clearly on the USGS real -time
streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). Below- normal streamflow conditions
continue to be visible in the Piedmont and Sand Hills regions, with below - normal streamflows at a number of USGS gages
depicted in the "less than 10th percentile" range and "record low for the calendar day." Below- normal streamflow
conditions also appear to be expanding eastward towards the coastal region. As of this morning, streamflow conditions in
the mountains region are depicted in the normal ranges, apparently due to the scattered rainfall that moved through the
area just prior to the USDM cutoff.
With several weeks of little to no rainfall, the 28 -day average streamflow map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs .qov /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) currently depicts streamflow conditions in the below -
normal ranges for much of the Piedmont and Sand Hills regions. Streamflow conditions in the 'less than 10th percentile"
and "record low for the calendar day" ranges are noted for about 18 USGS streamgages across the southern Piedmont
and Sand Hills regions as well as along the Virginia border in the Dan River basin (tributary to Roanoke River).
As of November 11 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 57 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles
for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage
suggests declines in overall streamflows relative to 38 percent just a week ago.
Water levels at the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate Response Network in North
Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) are depicted in the normal range for 4 wells, below normal for
4 wells, and much below - normal range for the well near Mocksville in Davie County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355359080331701 &ncd =crn). Water levels at the Mocksville well
have been on a steady decline since early April, which is a typical pattern during the annual cycle. However, the water
levels are about 2 feet below this time last year and also not increasing as observed this time last year.
Water levels at the Coastal Plain observation wells are depicted in the below - normal range for the 1 well near Grantham
in Wayne County (http: / /groundwaterwatch.usgs. qov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37) and range for the 5 other wells,
following the passage of Hurricane Sandy a few weeks ago. As noted last week, while water levels in the Wayne County
well have declined since mid October, part of the reason for the below - normal depiction is due to a shift in background

percentile statistics with the transition into November.
Changes made to last week's NC depiction in the USDM release included a DO expansion across parts of the southern
Piedmont and Sand Hills regions as well as the northern foothills region near the Virginia border. The D1 classification
was also introduced across parts of the southern Piedmont and Sands Hills regions, primarily reflective of the streamflow
conditions noted in these regions.
With little to no rainfall again across much of the state during the past 7 days, further DO expansion across central North
Carolina appears to be warranted, reflective of the below - normal hydrologic conditions and growing precipitation deficits.
Last week's discussion included some consideration of the expanding DO northward across the central Piedmont towards
the Virginia border. However, the USDM author (Miskus) decided to hold off on the expansion due to 60- and 90 -day
percent of normal precipitation at or close to normal across much of the northern Piedmont. However, the author
indicated a willingness to expand DO across the northern Piedmont if no substantial rainfall materialized.
Possible DO expansion across parts of the western Coastal Plain (not affected by passage of Hurricane Sandy) may also
be warranted, reflective of the growing precipitation deficits and expanding below - normal streamflow conditions.
Suggest "status quo" elsewhere.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. USDM author David Miskus, meteorologist with
the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In a
"preliminary thoughts" email released Tuesday morning, he made the following comments concerning the Southeast
region, including the Carolinas:
The Southeast: Thru Days1 -6, minimal precipitation across Southeast (greatest: 0.5 -1" in nwGA), but on Day7
(CoCoRAHS: 0.5 -1" in FL Panhandle, n &cAL, nGA, wSC, wNC, swVA). Enough to stem additional deterioration, but
probably not enough to warrant much improvement. An exception for some detrioration may be in sw -seGA and and
coastal Carolinas which got little or no rain
x7.711 ti ■01[41i1XT /Miw11 41114yiWA M 11463bli'Id►rifiULlIiL[
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM

releases):
httD:Hdrouahtmonitor.un1.edu /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 11/1312012 1200 UTC— Created 11/13/12 15:55 UTC
3

-- Streamflow --
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
Tuesday, Mouenber 13, 2012 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...

Tuesday, Nouenber 06, 2012 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (November 13 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Explanation - Percentile classes
..
.,
14k,",
flow
(% of)
1
Lo
1 � r -s0 >
�
- �: High Idol- ranked
j N ch bedo s �
w
Be lbw P trr� al Ah,,we % asU) a, ,
mar€ -- normal
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (November 13 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Nov 06
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Nov 13
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
95
cfs
46
cfs
1440
32 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
55
cfs
55
cfs
17%
329 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
10
cfs
8.3
cfs
31%
27 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
165
cfs
154
cfs
400
383 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,150
cfs
1,180
cfs
790
1,490 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
24
cfs
44
cfs
88%
50 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
847
cfs
858
cfs
720
1,200 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
67
cfs
95
cfs
1090
87 cfs
5

Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, Houenber 12, 2012
To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:

Monday, Houenber 12, 2012
As of November 11 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 57 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 25 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to November 04 (Sunday), the current values indicate declines in overall streamflow conditions during course
of the past week, considering 38% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 19% of sites were below
10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

1
�f
f
Less than 25th percentile
Less than 10th percentile
New min forthe clay
Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day
indicated percentile range or love
,►t OF
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through November 12 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

Previous 7 days
Monday, November 12, 2012
Previous 30 days
Monday, November 12, 2012
Explanation
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
Unregulated Regulated
a
IM
D
❑
0

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
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-- Ground Water --
10

Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11
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Not
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Mich Below
Below
--
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Normal
Normal Normal
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
12
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(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
12

(EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
13
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(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
13

(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
14
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(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
14

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---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
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15