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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday November 05 2012.msg_20121106Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 12:01 PM To: Linwood Peele Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Linwood Peele; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody; wly; Jackson, Donna Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, November 05, 2012 NC Drought advisory group, Inspection of precipitation maps for North Carolina (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http: / /www.nc- climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure) indicates very little to no rainfall statewide during the past 7 days since the passage of Hurricane Sandy along the east coast. The area of the state receiving the highest totals (0.5 to 1 inch) is along the coast in Brunswick and southern New Hanover Counties near the mouth of the Cape Fear River. In the Piedmont and Sand Hills regions, the past 7 days is the second consecutive week with no practically rainfall. This lack of rainfall in the central part of North Carolina is evident on the USGS real -time streamflow map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). An expanding area of below - normal streamflow conditions continues to be visible in the Piedmont and Sand Hills regions, where below - normal streamflows at some USGS gages are depicted in the "less than 10th percentile" range and "record low for the calendar day." A mix of streamflow conditions is depicted in the mountains region as well as the central and northern Coastal Plain, reflective of the recent rainfalls within these regions. However, there are indications of below - normal streamflow conditions starting to appear in the mountains region following the absence of rainfall during the past week. The 28 -day average streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch. usgs .gov /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) continues to indicate streamflows in the normal and above - normal ranges across much of North Carolina. However, below - normal 28- day streamflows also continue in parts of the Broad and Catawba River basins, Dan River basin, Sand Hills, and southern Coastal Plain region. The 28 -day average streamflows are depicted in the "less than 10th percentile" and "record low for the calendar day" ranges for about a dozen USGS streamgages in these areas. As of November 04 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 38 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests declines in overall streamflows relative to 36 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells in the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) are depicted in the normal range for 4 wells and below normal for 5 wells. Of particular note, water levels at all these wells are in a declining pattern. While this pattern would be expected following very little to no rainfall during the past few weeks, this is the time of year when water levels usually are starting to rise as part of the annual cycle. In particular, water levels at the Blantyre well in Transylvania County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 351808082374302 &ncd =crn) have declined in the past week. This 70 -feet deep well is regarded as a very good monitor of climatic conditions. A decline in water levels following the "up turn" in the annual cycle is noteworthy. Water levels at the Coastal Plain observation wells are depicted in the below - normal range for the 1 well near Grantham in Wayne County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /StateMapsNet .asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37), normal range for 2 other wells, and above - normal range for 3 wells following last week's passage of Hurricane Sandy. Of note concerning the well in Wayne County, although water levels are declining, part of the reason for the below - normal depiction is due to a shift in background percentile statistics with the transition into November. Changes made to last week's NC depiction in the USDM release included a reduction in DO in the coastal areas where 2+ inches rainfall occurred with the passage of Hurricane Sandy. This reduction in DO was accompanied by a DO expansion across the southern Piedmont and Sand Hills region due to indications of deepening dryness pattern. With little to no rainfall occurring across much of the state last week, there are clear hydrologic indicators and precipitation deficits that suggest further DO expansion across the central portions of North Carolina. The occurrence of multiple streamgages in the southern Piedmont and Sand Hills region with streamflow conditions in the "less than 10th percentile" and "record low for the calendar day" ranges may warrant introduction of D1 across parts of these regions. Precipitation deficits for the 30 -day periods appear to be growing for the mountains region, and groundwater levels have declined in this same region. However, most streamflows are being depicted in the normal ranges at this time. May want to consider some DO expansion, particularly in the southern mountains. If not this week, the NC group needs to prepare for such an expansion in the next week if no substantial rainfall materializes. Suggest "status quo" elsewhere. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. USDM author David Miskus, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /droughtmonitor .unl.edu /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 11/0/2012 1200 UTC— Created 11/6/12 13:55 UTC -- Streamflow -- Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: 3 htto:Hwaterwatch. usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma Current conditions... Tuesday, Mouenber 08, 2012 08 :30ET Last week's conditions... Tuesday, October 30, 2012 08 :30ET WIM MUSGS When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (November 06 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Explanation - Percentile classes Flow Oct 30 , flow (% of) X10 Low 10-2-4--'j �7 76 -90 >0 � ...... � ............ - Hi I�ol- ranked jr N m ed ur - ---- ---- -- ebw P trnal A,,we %asU)a, , _ mar €Y,,aI When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (November 06 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Oct 30 Current flow (% of) Median Nov 06 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 566 cfs 95 cfs 396% 24 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 65 cfs 55 cfs 190 292 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 9.7 cfs 10 cfs 450 22 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 186 cfs 165 cfs 510 325 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,150 cfs 1,150 cfs 820 1,409 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 22 cfs 24 cfs 510 47 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 928 cfs 847 cfs 760 1,110 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 73 cfs 67 cfs 83% 81 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: 5 Monday, Houenber 05, 2012 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, Houenber 05, 2012 As of November 04 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 38 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 19 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to October 28 (Sunday), the current values indicate declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 36% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 11 % of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= pa07d %2Ctable 1 �f ill Less than 25th percentile Less than 10th percentile New min forthe clay Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day indicated percentile range or love Date ,• Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through November 05 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long-term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html L N I IF Previous 30 days Monday, November 05, 2012 Explanation Unregulated Regulated No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D ❑ D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) r s' D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined ❑ s fRtz ,, , a� , The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help 61 6 _ << re . <« + J— j 1:, BE 11 B 3`' M :; tl' El Layers ❑ automated DM maps (short string) Fj ❑veeklr change in 7-day median percen' <all othervalues> 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease rrr r Editor �Fl Create Nee,:° Feature � -t 5 to 10 percentile increase B to,5 percentile increase No percentile change J to,5 percentile decrease ,w 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease rrr r Editor �Fl Create Nee,:° Feature � -t r �m5 ,w Displary Source I Selection I Catalog Drawing ❑ Biel 1 B I U 0 -- Ground Water -- Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 10 New <f 1024 . ..................................... ................................ X25 7 75 9 >0 New ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . ............ Not Low Mich Below Below -- Normal Above hrluoh Above' High Ranked Normal Normal Normal Normal Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 10 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 11 USES 351808082374302 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH 2115.00 32.20 2114.80 S 32,40 G } 41 L7 2114.60 32,60 G] L M 2114.40 CU L 4J 32.80 } 4} i L 2114,20 'U 33.00 i C G L Oct Oct Oct Nov ca 13 20 27 03 2012 2012 2012 2012 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 11 (EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) 12 USES 354057080362801 FAO -149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT FMS 1 NR BARBER ( E OLITH) 8.55 669.45 y 8.60 669.40 8.65 669.35 Lo 0 8.70 669.30 Qb Qy L M 'i o 8.75 669.25 L Q Gi DO 8.80 669.20 G} 'i L O *' 8.85 669,15 GU M L 4 � G 8.90 669.10 C O L Oct Oct Oct Now ca 13 20 27 03 2012 2012 2012 2012 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level (EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) 12 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 13 USES 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITHWELL) 27.15 = 347,85 m 'U U 27,29 347.89 {y 27.25 347.75 27.39 Z 347,79 (U � 27,35 y 347.65 Q 27,49 °} } 4ti 347.69 L 0 27.45 CU 347.55 s L *' a 27.59 0 347.59 0 L C7 Oct Oct Oct Nov 13 2$ 27 $3 2912 2912 2912 2912 - - -- Provisional Data Subject t8 Revision - - -- (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 13 14 USGS 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, NC (SURFICIAL,) 55.00 CU Q. L 4J 3.00 CU 53.00 CU 3.50 m C CL Oct Oct Oct Nov 13 20 27 03 2012 2012 2012 2012 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 14