20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday May 30.msg_20110531

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, May 31, 2011 11:29 AM
To:
Yonts, Woody
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian; Lane, David; Owen, Debra;
eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke- energy.comI garry_grabow @ncsu.edu;
george.mathews @noaa.gov; Brady, Harold M.; Kritzer, Jamie; jcweaver @usgs.gov;
Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim; Hoffmann, Jucilene; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar,
Neelufa; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov;
rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; Young, Sarah; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Fransen, Tom; Reeder,
Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Lawrence, Torey; Cox, Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Yonts, Woody;
Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, May 30
NC Drought advisory group,
Precipitation patterns across North Carolina were varied with much of the mountains and Piedmont regions receiving 0.5+
inch or better during the past week with generally lesser amounts across most of the Coastal Plain
( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ -or- http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /). The precipitation maps indicate
that rainfalls in some areas (upper Yadkin, New, parts upper Neuse and Cape Fear basins) exceeded 2 to 3 inches,
including parts of Chapel Hill and Durham where quick localized flooding occurring on Friday caused some property
damage and congested traffic conditions for motorists attempting to start their Memorial Day weekend travel.
Also noteworthy during the past week has been the return of high temperatures into the 90's across most of the state.
A mix of streamflow conditions continues to exist across the state with the more visibly widespread below - normal
conditions in the eastern half of the state, including a growing number of sites in the "less than 10th percentile range" in
this particular region (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). Widespread streamflows in the
normal range continue to be evident in the northern mountains and northwest Piedmont. As noted last week, an area of
widespread below - normal conditions is also indicated on the map extending from the southern mountains eastward
towards Mecklenburg County.
As of May 29 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 33 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates
very minor deterioration in overall streamflow relative to 31 percent just a week ago.
Groundwater conditions continue to be depicted at levels in the normal (6), below normal (3), and much below normal (1)
ranges for the 10 observation Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills wells within the NC Climate Response network
( http:// ogw01. er. usgs .gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html). The Piedmont well with much -below normal water levels is located in
Chapel Hill, although water levels in this particular well rose about 0.3 foot in response to the heavy rainfall last Friday
afternoon (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nwis /uv ?site no= 355522079043001).
Water levels at the six Coastal Plain observation wells within the same network are currently depicted in the normal range
for 1 well, below - normal range for 1 well, much below - normal for 1 well, and record low for the month at 3 wells: Comfort
well in Jones County, Hoke well in Washington County, and Elizabeth City well in Pasquotank County. These wells with
water levels at record low for the month are located within the area of the Coastal Plain where 30 -day precipitation deficits
in the range of 10 to 25 percent have been recently noted.
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Changes made last week were some minor reductions in DO across the northern central Piedmont. No changes were
made to any of the D1 depictions across eastern parts of the state.
With the recent rainfalls across the northern mountains and northwest Piedmont, no changes are needed in this region.
Last week's email indicated a need to start closely monitoring the southern mountains where a growing area of below -
normal conditions has become visible during the past few weeks. Water levels at the well at Marble in Cherokee County

(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 351121083545002 &ncd =crn) have just crossed into the below -
normal range. Additionally, water levels at the Blantyre well in Transylvania County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 351808082374302 &ncd =crn) have begun the seasonal turn towards
a pattern of declining levels.
The eastern Coastal Plain has recently become the focus of the drought concerns with the expansion of D1 across parts
of this region. The area of 30 -day percent of normal precipitation in the 10 to 25 percent range has become more
widespread across the eastern Coastal Plain and Outer Banks region (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /). As noted above,
water levels at 4 of the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37) are in the much below - normal range and record
low for the month. As noted last week, the group should probably consider introducing some D2 across parts of the
central eastern coast (Jones through Pamlico Counties) given the absence of recent substantial rain
With rainfalls in parts of the Sand Hills region, it may be appropriate to trim or eliminate the D1 depiction in this area( ?).
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Anthony Artusa, meteorologist with the NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM
author for this week's release.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

Image shown below pulled from the State Climate Office of North Carolina at http: / /www.nc-
climate.ncsu.edu /moe departure/

. . . ncsu.edu
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-- Streamflow --
4: I � •* 1 111111111
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
httD:Hwaterwatch. usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma
Current conditions...
Tuesday, May 31, 2011 08 :30ET
Last week's conditions...

Tuesday, May 24, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (May 31 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number S
Explanation - Percentile classes
Flow May 17 C
......,.
flow
(% of) M
1
Lo
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�
- �: High Idol- ranked
j N ch beds ur
- ---- ---- -�
Be lbw P trr� al Ah,,we % asU) a, ,
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When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (May 31 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number S
Site name (and County) F
Flow May 17 C
Current f
flow
(% of) M
Median May 24
02053200 P
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 2
20 c
cfs 9
9.6 c
cfs
290 3
33 cfs
02106500 B
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 2
238 c
cfs 1
102 c
cfs
33% 3
306 cfs
02085500 F
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 5
57 c
cfs 3
31 c
cfs
790 3
39 cfs
02096960 H
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 3
327 c
cfs 2
263 c
cfs
58% 4
456 cfs
02115360 Y
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 2
2,090 c
cfs 2
2,190 c
cfs
1000 2
2,190 cfs
02152100 F
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 4
41 c
cfs 3
38 c
cfs
48% 7
79 cfs
03451500 F
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 1
1,380 c
cfs 1
1,160 c
cfs
680 1
1,710 cfs
03550000 V
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 1
116 c
cfs 1
110 c
cfs
640 1
173 cfs
4Mllllll
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.

Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 30, 2011
To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:

Monday, May 30, 2011
As of May 29 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 33 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 17 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to May 22 (Sunday), the current values indicate minor deterioration in overall streamflow conditions during
course of the past week, considering 31 % of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 8% of sites were
below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

i
i
If i
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New min forthe day
August - -, - - --
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through May 30 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
10

N
F1
Previous 7 days
Monday, May 30, 2011
s�
��OkfAV?YS6�` ��s
!111
F0
Previous 30 days
Monday, May 30, 2011
oil L. �& (-D
v
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
0
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
0
❑
11
y
h°,.

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
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Drawing , -------- ________
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
12
10 to 25 percentile increase
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
0
No percentile change
0 to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greater than 50 percentile decrease
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Drawing , -------- ________
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Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
12

ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
13

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2011
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---- Provisional Data Subject to
Revision ----
14

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
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— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional
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(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
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- - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision
- - --
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Measured depth to water level
— Depth to water level
16

(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
17
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- - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - --
- Depth
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water level
17

(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
18
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Period of
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provisional data
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
18

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---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
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— Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
20