20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday May 14 2012.msg_20120515

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, May 15, 2012 1:49 PM
To:
Jackson, Donna
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Linwood Peele;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov;
Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody; wly
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, May 14, 2012
NC Drought advisory group,
Precipitation maps for the state (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure)
indicate very widespread and beneficial rainfall amounts over most of the state during the past week. With exception of a
few central coastal counties (as of Tuesday morning), rainfall amounts were 0.5 inch or better across the state. The
highest amounts are noted in the western and central Piedmont region with totals in excess of 2 inches. Amounts in
excess of 3 and 4 inches were noted for parts of upper Broad, Catawba, and Yadkin basins.
Streamflows indicated on the current real -time streamflow map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) echo the rainfall patterns very well with conditions
depicted in the much above - normal range as well as record high for the calendar day in much of western and central
Piedmont. Elsewhere in the state, streamflow conditions "at the moment" are mostly in the normal range. The only area
of the state with below - normal streamflow conditions are some gages in the southern Coastal Plain near the SC border
(Lumber/Waccamaw River basins).
As of May 13 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 21 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests
improvements in overall streamflows relative to 54 percent just a week ago.
Groundwater levels at the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells shown on the Climate Response
Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) are depicted in the normal range for 6 wells,
below normal for 2 wells, and continued record low for the calendar month at the Chapel Hill well in Orange County and
Marston well in Scotland County.
Water levels in the 6 Coastal Plain wells are depicted in the above normal range for the well near Elizabeth City
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn) after a 1 ft rise in water level following
the most recent rainfall this past week, normal range for 2 wells, below - normal range for 2 wells, and record low for the
month at the Southport well in Brunswick County
(http:/ /qroundwaterwatch. usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 335631078003606 &ncd =crn).
No changes were made to last week's USDM drought depictions for North Carolina, primarily due to a forecasted rainfall
event. Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North
Carolina. However, the USDM author has suggested that improvements may be warranted following the most recent
rainfalls.
Based on the hydrologic and precipitation patterns, it appears that improvements in drought conditions are warranted for
areas in North Carolina.

Based on the 30 -day percent of normal precipitation ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /), at least a 1- category improvement
appears to be justified for all of the state with exception of the southern Coastal Plain near the SC border as well as parts
of the southeastern and eastern central Coastal Plain.
Use of "status quo" may be appropriate for the Lumber/Waccamaw basins and the 1 -2 counties inland along the coast
from Brunswick northeast towards Pamlico River estuary.
Given the high rainfall totals in the upper Yadkin, Catawba, and Broad River basin, it's possible the USDM author could
implement a 2 -cat improvement for some parts of this area( ?).
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with some improvements indicated for northeastern
North Carolina. Brad Rippey, agricultural meteorologist with the USDA's Office of the Chief Economist in Washington,
D.C., is the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made no specific comments
concerning Carolinas region, but did acknowledge the rainfall that has occurred along the East Coast, suggesting that
some improvements may be justified.
- Improvements in the East were based on rain that fell through 12Z May 14. There may be additional changes required since
we've had an active Monday up and down the East Coast.
Heading northward, however, there was some substantial relief from dryness and drought from northeastern North Carolina to
Maine. Some of the heaviest rains hit New England, southern New Jersey, and the southern Atlantic coastal plain.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at

http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 5/15/2012 1200 UTC— Created 5/15/12 15:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
Focusing on current streamflow conditions...
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
4

Tuesday, May 15, 2012 12 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, May 08, 2012 09 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
dol- ranked Ajr
m ed u
w __I
,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
�
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box

appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (May 15 early afternoon) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow May 08
Current
flow
(% of)
Median May 15
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
56
cfs
430
cfs
1,0230
42 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
123
cfs
241
cfs
700
344 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
77
cfs
62
cfs
1190
52 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
515
cfs
2,770
cfs
6580
421 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,760
cfs
17,000
cfs
7760
2,190 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
30
cfs
260
cfs
3610
72 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,500
cfs
4,990
cfs
267%
1,870 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
170
cfs
215
cfs
1010
213 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 14, 2012
I, SGS
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 14, 2012
As of May 13 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 21 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 9 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to May 06 (Sunday), the current values indicate improvements in overall streamflow conditions during course
of the past week, considering 54% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 25% of sites were below
10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

1
f
Less than 25th percentile
Less than 10th percentile
New min forthe clay
Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day
indicated percentile range or love
Date
M
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through May 14 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

Previous 7 days
Monday, May 14, 2012
Previous 30 days
Monday, May 14, 2012
Explanation
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
Unregulated Regulated
a
IM
D
❑
0

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
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-- Ground Water --
10
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
No percentile change
B to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
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-- Ground Water --
10

Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11
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Normal Normal
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

12
USES
351 080823 '430
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(NC-144) AT
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Apr
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05
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2012
2012
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2012
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
12

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
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Jul Sep Now Jan Mar
May
2911 2911 2911 2912 2912
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— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13

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ca
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28 05
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2012 2012
2012
- - --
Provisional Data Subject to
Revision - - --
0
Measured
depth to water level — Depth
to water level
14

(EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
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— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
L
(EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
15
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Apr Apr
May
May
21 28
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2912
- - -- Provisional Data
Subject to
Revision - - --
15

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— Daily naxinun depth to water level
Daily nininun depth to water level
--Daily nean depth to water level
Period of approved data
Period of provisional data
Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27.89 ft Dec 12, 2998)
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16

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- - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - --
Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level
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— Daily
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Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional data
— Lowest
recorded water level
prior to
MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007)
18