20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday May 09.msg_20110510

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, May 10, 2011 11:29 AM
To:
Yonts, Woody
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian; Lane, David; Owen, Debra;
eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke- energy.comI garry_grabow @ncsu.edu;
george.mathews @noaa.gov; Brady, Harold M.; Kritzer, Jamie; jcweaver @usgs.gov;
Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim; Hoffmann, Jucilene; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar,
Neelufa; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov;
rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; Young, Sarah; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Fransen, Tom; Reeder,
Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Lawrence, Torey; Cox, Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Yonts, Woody;
Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, May 09
NC Drought advisory group,
Precipitation total maps for North Carolina indicate widespread 0.5+ inch across most of the Piedmont and mountains
region during the past week while most of the Coastal Plain received less than 0.5 inch (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ -
or- http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /). Examination of maps showing 30 -day percent of normal
precipitation indicate widespread area of 10 to 50 percent over the coastal counties from Brunswick County northeast
towards Dare County.
Similar to noted observations last week, streamflow conditions "at the moment" west of a line running from Rutherford
County northeast towards Forsyth County are mostly depicted in the normal range
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). East of the same line, below - normal streamflows
continue to be more visibly widespread, particularly (and also as noted last week) in the eastern Piedmont, Sand Hills
region, and northwest Coastal Plain in the upper Tar River basin where conditions are in the "less than 10th percentile"
range at a number of gaging stations.
A check of the 28 -day average flows (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) generally
echoes the pattern with normal and above - normal conditions in the western Piedmont and mountains region with more
widespread below normal conditions from the eastern Piedmont towards the coast. An area of "less than 10th percentile"
28 -day average flows is visible in the Sand Hills region.
As of May 08 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 20 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates
minor improvement in overall streamflow relative to 35 percent just a week ago.
Groundwater conditions are depicted with levels in the normal (5), above normal (1), below normal (2), and much below
normal (1) ranges for the 10 observation Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills wells within the NC Climate Response
network ( http:// ogw01. er. usgs .gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html). Water levels at the six Coastal Plain observation wells within
the same network are currently depicted in the normal range for 3 wells and above - normal range for 3 wells. Based on
this particular map depiction, the area of below - normal conditions continues to be concentrated in the central and eastern
Piedmont along with the Sand Hills region.
Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. Changes made last week were (1) expansion of
D1 across parts of the southern and central Coastal Plain and (2) a minor expansion of DO across parts of the central
Yadkin basin, affecting all or parts of Davidson, Rowan, and Cabarrus Counties.
The weather pattern seems to have evolved into one with storms moving across parts of the state and producing rainfall
totals "just enough to keep everything afloat" but not providing the type of deep improvements in terms of overall
hydrologic conditions that are needed. While I certainly accept the pattern with a note of appreciation, I also believe this
kind of pattern continues to provide a challenge in how to properly depict drought across parts of the state. In last week's
email, I made reference to keeping a close eye on the northern Piedmont and northwest Coastal Plain with the possibility
of needing to re- introduce some D1 in parts of this region. But this area is one that received some of the higher rainfall

totals during the past week.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. Richard Tinker, meteorologist with the NOAA
NWS Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is again the USDM author for this week's release.
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 5/9/2011 1200 UTC— Created 5/9/11 23:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: I � •* 1 111111111
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...

Tuesday, May 10, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, May 03, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
dol- ranked Ajr
m ed u
w __I
,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
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When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage

of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (May 10 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Apr 18
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Apr 26
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
50
cfs
27
cfs
42%
65 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
530
cfs
235
cfs
56%
421 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
24
cfs
47
cfs
890
53 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
398
cfs
462
cfs
92%
501 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
2,180
cfs
1,910
cfs
900
2,130 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
49
cfs
49
cfs
660
74 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
2,270
cfs
1,900
cfs
970
1,960 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
212
cfs
176
cfs
760
232 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 09, 2011
5

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 09, 2011
As of May 08 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 20 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 5 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to May 01 (Sunday), the current values indicate minor improvements in overall streamflow conditions during
course of the past week, considering 35% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 10% of sites were
below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

i
i
ii
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New min forthe day
September JIuly2010 August 2010 o- December Janue
2010
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through May 09 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html

LII
FBI
Previous 7 days
Monday, May 09, 2011
L
r�
Explanation
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
Unregulated Regulated
6
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The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
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-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
9

ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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11

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
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— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
12

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---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision
----
13

(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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- - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - --
Measured depth to water level A Equipnent nalfunction
—
Depth to water level
14

(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
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of approved data
Period of
provisional
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(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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2011 2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - --
- Depth to water level
A Value exceeds "standard difference" threshold.
16

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— Lowest
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prior to
MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
17