20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday May 07 2012.msg_20120508

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, May 08, 2012 12:21 PM
To:
Jackson, Donna
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Linwood Peele;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov;
Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody; wly
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, May 07, 2012
NC Drought advisory group,
Examination of precipitation maps for the state (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http: / /www.nc-
climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure) indicate fairly widespread rainfall coverage during the past week for parts of the
northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain as well as the mountains region, particularly along much of the Tennessee
border. Rainfall totals within these areas are commonly 0.5+ inch with some higher totals of 2+ inches in isolated areas.
Elsewhere, rainfall coverage ranged from nothing to less than 0.5 inch. In the south central and southwestern Piedmont,
there is a large area indicated as having received no rainfall during the past week.
Streamflows indicated on the current real -time streamflow map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) echo the past week's rainfall pattern very well with
conditions depicted in the normal range "at the moment" for the Neuse and Tar River basins as well as much of the
mountains region. Below- normal conditions are visibly widespread on the map for the southern Piedmont and southern
Coastal Plain regions. Conditions in the "less than 10th percentile" range are depicted for numerous streamgages in the
Broad River and lower /middle Catawba basins. In the Sand Hills and southern Coastal Plain regions, streamflow
conditions are depicted at record low for the calendar date at 6 streamgages. Inspection of 28 -day average flows
(http: / /waterwatch. usgs .gov /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) indicates continued below - normal conditions in the
Piedmont and southern Coastal Plain regions where widespread "less than 10th percentile" streamflows are visible on the
map.
As of May 06 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 54 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests
declines in overall streamflows relative to 33 percentjust a week ago.
Groundwater levels at the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells shown on the Climate Response
Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) are depicted in the normal range for 4 wells,
below normal for 4 wells, and record low for the calendar month at the Chapel Hill well in Orange County and Marston well
in Scotland County.
Water levels in the 6 Coastal Plain wells are depicted in the above normal range for the well near Elizabeth City
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn) following a 2 ft rise in water level this
past weekend, normal range for 4 wells due to a shift in the monthly background statistics, and much below - normal range
Southport well in Brunswick County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 335631078003606 &ncd =crn).
Users are reminded to be cautious with the appearance of water level improvements caused by the transition into May
where substantial shifts in the background statistics occur for some of the observation wells.
Changes made to last week's USDM drought depictions for North Carolina included D1 expansion across parts of the

Piedmont and Coastal Plain regions, A small area of DO was trimmed in the mountains due to recent improvements in
conditions. Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday evening with no changes yet indicated for North
Carolina. However, the USDM author is hinting at the possibility of drought expansion across parts of the Carolinas.
Based on the hydrologic and precipitation patterns...
(1) The use of "status quo" is probably appropriate for the Neuse /Tar River basins and northern Coastal Plain as well as
the mountains region. In particular, would suggest holding status quo on the Neuse /Tar basins where D1 is currently
depicted to allow for additional monitoring of conditions.
(2) Last week's discussions included some consideration of possible deterioration in the Broad River basin where the
streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) continues to indicate conditions in the "less
than 10th percentile" range at a number of streamgages in this basin. The 30 -day percent of normal precipitation (PNP)
deficits are growing with an expanding area across the middle /lower Catawba with PNP values in the 10 to 25 percent
range. Introduction of deterioration would involve bringing D2 into this area (already just across the border in SC). No
rainfall was received in this area last week, and this may be the area where this week's USDM author is considering
drought expansion. Would really like to get some thoughts from local interests in this area.
(3) Likewise, last week's discussions also included some consideration of possible drought expansion across parts of the
southern Coastal Plain. The real -time streamflow maps indicate 6 streamgages with record low for the calendar date.
Small areas with 30 -day PNP values in the 10 to 25 percent range are visible for parts of the Lumber and lower Cape
Fear basin. This area is currently shown as D1, and the NC group needs to prepare for the possibility of D2 being
expanded from SC into this area( ?).
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday evening, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Matthew Rosencrans, meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is again the USDM
author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made no specific comments concerning Carolinas
region, but did suggest that some expansion in drought may be warranted for parts of the region.
Tomorrow I will look for deterioration hot spots. Thinking expansion across the Carolinas, Utah, NV, northern
CA.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 5/7/2012 1200 UTC— Created 5/7/12 23:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...

Tuesday, May 08, 2012 09 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, May 01, 2012 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
dol- ranked Ajr
m ed u
w __I
,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
�
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box

appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (May 08 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow May 01
Current
flow
(% of)
Median May 08
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
319
cfs
56
cfs
82%
68 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
143
cfs
123
cfs
260
466 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
38
cfs
77
cfs
1330
58 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
348
cfs
515
cfs
910
568 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,910
cfs
1,760
cfs
740
2,370 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
34
cfs
30
cfs
42%
71 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,720
cfs
1,500
cfs
74%
2,039 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
215
cfs
170
cfs
68%
249 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 07, 2012
I, SGS
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 07, 2012
As of May 06 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 54 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 25 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to April 29 (Sunday), the current values indicate declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of the
past week, considering 33% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 17% of sites were below 10th
percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

1
f
Less than 25th percentile
Less than 10th percentile
New min forthe clay
Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day
indicated percentile range or love
Date
M
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through May 07 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

L
L
Explanation
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
Unregulated Regulated
a
IM
0
❑
0

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
El 0 Layers
E] ❑+ .,automated DM maps (short string)
El
® all others =alues�,
10 to 25 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
e rrs p h°
Display Source Selection
Drawing El A Mal I
Editor —I `t [ 100 '— Create I le%,,, FEAU I-C:
-- Ground Water --
10
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
No percentile change
g to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
e rrs p h°
Display Source Selection
Drawing El A Mal I
Editor —I `t [ 100 '— Create I le%,,, FEAU I-C:
-- Ground Water --
10

Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11
New
<f
1024
. ..................................... ................................
X25 7 75 9 >0
New
..... . . . . . . . . . . . . ............
Not
Low
Mich Below
Below
--
Normal Above hrluoh Above'
High
Ranked
Normal
Normal
Normal Normal
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

12
USES
351 080823 '430
TR-065
(NC-144) AT
BLANTYRE, NC
(REGOLITH)
-
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CU
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2119.40
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Apr
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28
05
2012
2012
2012
2012
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
12

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
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(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
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(EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
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Period of approved data
- - -- Provisional Data
Subject to
(EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
15
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— Daily naxinun depth to water level
Daily nininun depth to water level
--Daily nean depth to water level
Period of approved data
Period of provisional data
Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec 12, 2998)
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16

17
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---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
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17

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Period
of provisional data
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recorded water level
prior to
MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007)
18