20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday May 02 2.msg_20110503

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, May 03, 2011 11:51 AM
To:
Yonts, Woody
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian; Lane, David; Owen, Debra;
eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke- energy.comI garry_grabow @ncsu.edu;
george.mathews @noaa.gov; Brady, Harold M.; Kritzer, Jamie; jcweaver @usgs.gov;
Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim; Hoffmann, Jucilene; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar,
Neelufa; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov;
rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; Young, Sarah; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Fransen, Tom; Reeder,
Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Lawrence, Torey; Cox, Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Yonts, Woody;
Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, May 02
NC Drought advisory group,
Rainfall coverage over most of North Carolina during the past week echoed the physiographic provinces with the most of
the mountains and Coastal Plain regions receiving at least 0.5 inch rainfall while most of the Piedmont region received
less than 0.5 inch (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ -or- http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /). With less than
normal rainfall having occurred over the past few weeks, the real -time streamflow map continues to indicate a return
towards below - normal streamflow conditions across parts of eastern North Carolina.
West of a line running from Rutherford County northeast towards Surry County, streamflow conditions "at the moment"
are mostly depicted in the normal range with a small number of sites in the southern mountains near the Georgia border in
the above - normal ranges (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). East of the same line, below -
normal streamflows are more visibly widespread, particularly in the eastern Piedmont, Sand Hills region, and northwest
Coastal Plain in the upper Tar River basin where gaging stations with "less than 10th percentile" conditions are more
numerous.
As of May 02 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 35 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates
deterioration in overall streamflow relative to 16 percent just a week ago.
Groundwater conditions are depicted with levels in the normal (4), much above normal (2), below normal (3), and much
below normal (1) ranges for the 10 observation Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills wells within the NC Climate
Response network ( http:// ogw01. er. usgs .gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html). Water levels at the six Coastal Plain observation
wells within the same network are currently depicted in the normal range for 4 wells and above - normal range for 2 wells.
The area of below - normal conditions is concentrated in the central and eastern Piedmont along with the Sand Hills
region.
Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. Changes made last week were a very slight DO
reduction across southern Mecklenburg County.
With another week of no beneficial rainfall amounts in the central part of the state, the most noticeable result continues to
be the expansion of the below - normal streamflow conditions in the eastern Piedmont and Sand Hills region. This pattern
has seemingly been a common one whereby streamflows briefly improve following the passage of some rainfall events,
but quickly drop within a few weeks after the rainfall to levels as low as "less than 10th percentile" conditions. The 28 -day
average flows (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) appear to echo the current drought
depiction.
My observation of the overall conditions suggests that one area where deterioration in drought depiction may be needed
is across the northern Piedmont from the Triad region towards the upper Tar River basin. The northern extent of the D1
depiction was dropped two weeks ago. If no significant rains materialize, I anticipate we may be getting close to returning
parts of the northern Piedmont to a D1 drought depiction.

Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. Richard Tinker, meteorologist with the NOAA
NWS Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release.
USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 5/1/2011 1200 UTC— Created 5/2/11 21:53 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: I � •* 1 111111111
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...

Tuesday, May 03, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, April 26, 2011 09 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
dol- ranked Ajr
m ed u
w __I
,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
�
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage

of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (May 03 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Apr 18
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Apr 26
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
47
cfs
50
cfs
770
65 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
314
cfs
530
cfs
1000
532 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
41
cfs
24
cfs
34%
71 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
554
cfs
398
cfs
450
891 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
2,220
cfs
2,180
cfs
920
2,360 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
63
cfs
49
cfs
59%
83 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
2,560
cfs
2,270
cfs
1100
2,060 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
289
cfs
212
cfs
85%
248 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 02, 2011
5

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, May 02, 2011
As of May 01 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 35 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 10 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to April 24 (Sunday), the current values indicate deterioration in overall streamflow conditions during course of
the past week, considering 16% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 2% of sites were below 10th
percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

1
t-T
June 2,010 Jul�20110 August2,010 September October November December JanuE
2,010 2010 2,010 2,010 .
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -dad?
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New min forthe clay
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through May 02 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html

L
C4�fi
Previous 30 days
Monday, May 02, 2011
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
0
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
IF
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
a
IM
n/d - Not determined
0
❑
s
v

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
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-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
0
10 to 25 percentile increase
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
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No percentile change
0 to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
Uisplay source ; eiectioni — 0! r�
\ '
Drawing T ❑fl$Im1 0 ---
B L •
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
0

ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
10

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USGS 351808082374302
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(NC-144) AT
BLANTYRE, NC
(REGOLITH)
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Apr
Apr
Apr
09
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23
30
2011
2011
2011
2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to
Revision ----
11

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
12
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may
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2919
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2911
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional
data
Period of approved
data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
12

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RO-149 (NC-193)
PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER
(REGOLIT
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670.80
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Q.
7.30
670.70
7.40
670.60
z
7.50
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m
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670.40
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670.30
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m
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7.90
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L
0
Apr
Apr
Apr Apr
09
16
23 30
2011
2011
2011 2011
----
Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
13

(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
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2919 2919
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— Daily nean depth to water
level Period of provisional data
to water level A Equipnent nalfunction
Period of approved data
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
14
USGS
3 52207 043001
OR -0 (NC-126) AT !CHAPEL HILL, H (RE OLITH)
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Apr
Apr Apr Apr
99
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0
2911
2911 2911 2911
- - -- Provisional
data Subject to Revision - - --
Measured depth
to water level A Equipnent nalfunction
—
Depth to water
level
14

(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
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(NC -126) AT !CHAPEL HILL, H
(RE OLITH)
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Jul
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Now Jan
Mar
Nay
2919
2919
2919 2911
2911
2911
— Daily
nean depth
to water
level A Equipnent
nalfunction
Period
of approved data
Period of
provisional
data
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15

16
USGS 35 1907 53 01 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL)
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Apr Apr Apr Apr
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09 16 23 30
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2011 2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - --
- Depth to water level
A Value exceeds "standard difference" threshold.
16

17
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(NC-160)
NR SIMPSON, NC
(SURFICIAL)
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2911 2811
2811 0
— Daily
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Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional data
— Lowest
recorded water level
prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
17