20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday March 26 2012.msg_20120326

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Monday, March 26, 2012 11:25 PM
To:
Jackson, Donna; Linwood Peele
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov;
Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody; wly
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, March 26, 2012
NC Drought advisory group,
I will be in attendance to the annual WRRI conference this Tuesday and Wednesday, so will probably not be a part of the
conference call on Tuesday depending the sessions schedule. The weekly conditions summary is provided 1 day earlier.
Precipitation totals maps for North Carolina (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http: / /www.nc-
climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure) indicate very good rainfall coverage during the past week due to a storm system that
moved across state this past weekend. With exception of very few areas, statewide totals exceeded 0.5 inch during the
period with widespread totals in the 1 to 2 inch range. Even higher totals of 2+ inches are noted for a large area from the
northern foothills east towards the Triangle region as well as parts of the southern and central Coastal Plain, including the
central Outer Banks.
Streamflow conditions indicated on the current real -time streamflow map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) echo the rainfall pattern, particularly in the northern
foothills and Piedmont regions as well as a large part of the Coastal Plain. Widespread above - normal conditions are in
effect in these areas at the current time. Below- normal streamflow conditions continue to be depicted for a small number
of gages across the Sand Hills, southern Piedmont and mountains region. Even though rainfall occurred in these areas
during the past week, the totals were relatively lower compared to northern tier, and thus streamflows did not show the
similar degrees of improvements.
As of March 25 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 41 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests
continuing declines in overall streamflows relative to 81 percent just a week ago.
Similar to streamflow conditions, increases in groundwater levels are noted in those areas where the higher rainfall totals
occurred. Groundwater levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells shown on the Climate
Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) are depicted in the normal range
for 7 wells, the below normal range for the Champion well near Cruso in Haywood County, and record low for the month
at both the Chapel Hill well in Orange County and Marston well in Scotland County.
Of note at the Chapel Hill well (http: / /groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn), the
groundwater level has increased about 0.25 feet since March 21. While this level may not sound significant, water levels
in the well have historically been slow to respond to the effects of rainfalls, particularly during base flow periods.
Water levels in the Coastal Plain well are in the normal range for 2 wells, much -above normal for the well near Grantham
in Wayne County, below normal for the well near Simpson in Pitt County, and much below normal for the 2 wells in Jones
and Brunswick County.

Of note at the Grantham well (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 351849078163901 &ncd =crn), the
groundwater level has increased about 2 feet since March 24, from the record low for the month to much above normal.
Changes made to last week's release included DO /D1 expansion across western and central Piedmont region. Draft 1 for
this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with some D1 /D0 trimming from the northern foothills east
towards the upper Neuse River basin in response to the high rainfall totals during the past week. This week's USDM
author posed the following question to the NC group:
Question for the NC group; Updated MPE shows a larger +2" region over the south - central portion of the state... I was considering
making this region DO, but figured I'd hold off until you folks had a chance to look things over. Specifically, I'm looking at Wayne Co
south into nrn Bladen and west into northeastern Cumberland and southeastern Harriett. Longer term (180 days) would certainly
support keeping D1.
Concerning this week's release...
The only improvements indicated thus far in Draft 1 are from the foothills east to the western Triangle.
With rainfall having occurred during the past few weeks, the NC group may want to consider some additional
improvements using the 14 -day totals ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /) as a guide. This raises the possibility of further
D1 trimming from the Triangle region south and east into southern /central Coastal Plain. The USDM author has asked
the NC group for some specific input on this area.
In terms of a specific suggestion, would suggest further D1 trimming from the Triangle south and east into the
southern /central Coastal Plain, maintaining D1 from the Broad River basin in the southwest Piedmont through
Mecklenburg County and into the Sand Hills region.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version with changes indicated for North Carolina in response to the
rainfall this past weekend. Eric Luebehusen, meteorologist with the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board in
Washington, D.C., is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made the
following specific comments concerning North Carolina:
- NC ... some DO and D1 reduction in the nrn portions of NC where 24" of rain estimated by AHPS. Toyed with a
small DO "hole" centered over nrn Sampson, but felt that this might be a bit too localized. Could go with it if desired.
Noted the 2" totals on the Outer Banks... could pull D1 back off this locale if locals want.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 3/26/2012 1200 UTC— Created 3/26/12 17:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: 110,111MITITERIT110111111111
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...

Monday, March 26, 2012 15 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
dol- ranked Ajr
m ed u
w __I
,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
�
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box

appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (March 26 afternoon) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Mar 20
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Mar 26
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
90
cfs
216
cfs
80%
270 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
346
cfs
1,020
cfs
1020
1,000 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
48
cfs
321
cfs
2770
116 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
985
cfs
6,250
cfs
6260
999 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
1,700
cfs
7,570
cfs
3280
2,310 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
44
cfs
74
cfs
82%
90 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,720
cfs
1,800
cfs
780
2,310 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
365
cfs
307
cfs
970
318 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Sunday, March 25, 2012
I, SGS
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Sunday, March 25, 2012
As of March 25 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 41 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 24 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to March 18 (Sunday), the current values indicate improvements in overall streamflow conditions during course
of the past week, considering 81 % of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 44% of sites were below
10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

1
100
ONN A4,
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -dad?
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or love
New min forthe clay
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through Monday 25 (Sunday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

6 f� - rc
a rty.. _ 5 d ❑ "
_. �
Previous 7 days
Sunday, March 25, 2012 °
nc
_ ❑
Previous 30 days
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
r
s'
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
❑
0

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
El 0 Layers
E] 2 Automated Dh,I maps (short string)
E] ❑�r (weekly change in 7 -day median percen'
®all othervalues�,
10 to 25 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
E
Editor — i t I goo Y � C,atc al F eatu� °e
Source Selection
Display i0 � III,�
Drawing El ri l 7B B u — _ +
-- Ground Water --
10
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
No percentile change
B to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
E
Editor — i t I goo Y � C,atc al F eatu� °e
Source Selection
Display i0 � III,�
Drawing El ri l 7B B u — _ +
-- Ground Water --
10

Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11
New
<f
1024
. ..................................... ................................
X25 7 75 9 >0
New
..... . . . . . . . . . . . . ............
Not
Low
Mich Below
Below
--
Normal Above hrluoh Above'
High
Ranked
Normal
Normal
Normal Normal
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

12
USES
351 080823 '430
TR-065
(NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC
(REGOLITH)
28.40
2118.60
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28.60
2118.40
ai
28.80
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2118.20
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29.00
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29.20
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2117.80
CU
4J
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29.40
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Mar
Mar
Mar Mar
03
10
17 24
2012
2012
2012 2012
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
12

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
USES
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BLANTYRE,
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May Jul
Sep Now
Jan
Mar
2911 2911
2911 2911
2912
2912
— Daily nean depth to
water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13

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( E OLITH)
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93 19 17
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2912 2912 2912
2912
- - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - --
0
Measured depth to water level — Depth to
water level
14

(EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
USES 354057080362801 FAO -149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT FMS 1 NR BARBER ( E OLITH)
a
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May Jul Sep Now Jan Mar
2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 2912
— Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89
ft Dec
12, 2998)
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(EASTERN l T) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
15
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2912
- - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision
- - --
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— Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89
ft Dec
12, 2998)
15

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ca
— Daily
naxinun depth to water level
Daily
nininun depth to water level
--Daily
nean depth to water level
Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional data
Lowest
recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec
12, 2998)
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16

17
USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,)
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Mar mar mar mar
03 10 17 24
2012 2012 2012 2012
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
17

18
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2011 2011 2011 2911
2012
2012
0
— Daily nean depth to water level
Period of approved data
Period of provisional data
— Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007)
18