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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday March 12 2012.msg_20120313Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2012 10:58 AM To: Jackson, Donna; Linwood Peele Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, March 12, 2012 NC Drought advisory group, Precipitation totals across North Carolina during the past week were not as high as those noted for the previous week, as indicated by the precipitation totals maps for the state (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http: / /www.nc- climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure). With exception of the southern mountains, little to no rainfall occurred in most areas where the weekly totals were 0.25 to 0.5 inch. Streamflow conditions indicated on the current real -time streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) depict widespread "less than 10th percentile" conditions across the Piedmont and western Coastal Plain. At least 6 sites in the central Piedmont and Sand Hills region are indicating record low streamflow conditions for the calendar date. The only areas indicating conditions in the normal ranges are narrow bands along the eastern Coastal Plain and along the NC/Tenn border in the mountains region. Inspection of the 28 -day average streamflow map (http: // waterwatch. usgs .gov /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) indicates widespread "less than 10th percentile" conditions from the western Coastal Plain through the Piedmont into parts of the central mountains. As of March 11 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 56 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7- day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests declines in overall streamflows relative to 49 percentjust a week ago. Groundwater levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells are depicted on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) in the normal range for 7 wells, below normal for the Champion well near Cruso in Haywood County, continued much below normal (less than 10th percentile) at the Marston well in Scotland County, and record low for the month at the Chapel Hill well in Orange County. Water levels in the Coastal Plain wells continue to reflect the effects of rains during the past few weeks. The levels in 5 of the 6 Coastal Plain wells are depicted in the normal ranges, albeit near the normal /below - normal threshold at three of these wells. The water levels at the remaining well at Southport in Brunswick County continues to be depicted in the below - normal range (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 335631078003606 &ncd =crn) close to the threshold between below normal and much below normal. Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Changes made to last week's release included D1 /D2 trimming in the coastal counties across the southern and central Coastal Plain region. Concerning this week's release... As discussed during the previous week, the streamflow conditions in the central Piedmont have declined in the past few weeks to the point where some deterioration in drought category may be justified with expansion of D1 into the central Piedmont. Support for this change based on the 30 -day percent of normal precipitation (http://water.weather.gov/precip be mixed given that a large part of the Piedmont has 30 -day PNP values in the 50 -75 percent range with some 25- 50 percent appearing in the area. Suggest the NC group consider expanding DO to cover the remainder of upper Catawba and Yadkin basins, then expand D1 by connecting the D1 sliver in Rutherford County to the existing D1 edge at the tops of Guilford and Alamance Counties. This would be a significant D1 expansion. Suggest use of "status quo" for the remainder of the state in this week's release. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Mike Brewer, NIDIS U.S. Drought Portal Manager at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made the following specific comments concerning North Carolina: NC - looks like some expansion of DO and D1 toward the northwest is warranted, as discussed last week. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 3/12/2012 1200 UTC— Created 3/12/12 23:55 UTC -- Streamflow -- Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap Current conditions... Tuesday, March 13, 2012 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, March 06, 2012 09 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. Lew X10 1 5 -7 r 6 -90 > . � dol- ranked Ajr m ed u w __I , 4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal � When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (March 13 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Mar 06 Current flow (% of) Median Mar 13 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 492 cfs 210 cfs 680 308 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 1,290 cfs 585 cfs 52% 1,120 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 57 cfs 30 cfs 240 123 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 825 cfs 447 cfs 430 1,040 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,800 cfs 1,580 cfs 660 2,410 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 48 cfs 44 cfs 47% 93 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 1,620 cfs 1,500 cfs 680 2,200 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 386 cfs 498 cfs 1420 351 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, March 12, 2012 I, SGS 6 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, March 12, 2012 As of March 11 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 56 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 18 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to March 04 (Sunday), the current values indicate declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 49% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 11 % of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable 1 100 ONN A4, Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -dad? Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or love New min forthe clay Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through Monday 12 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 8 Previous 7 days Monday, March 12, 2012 ' S Previous 30 days Monday, March 12, 2012 Explanation No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined Unregulated Regulated a IM D ❑ 0 The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help fs' (91 i ris j = rwr +':, F ]y wF, F f El Leers ❑► Automated DM maps (short string) E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percen. ® gall othervalues> IS 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E Editor ��t �®gcatc Nev,.- Feature a Display LGource eleotion I ip iir Lira ing >, } ❑ i Ahal 1B B I U w w _4 -- Ground Water -- 10 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase No percentile change B to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease iq 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E Editor ��t �®gcatc Nev,.- Feature a Display LGource eleotion I ip iir Lira ing >, } ❑ i Ahal 1B B I U w w _4 -- Ground Water -- 10 Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) New <f 1024 . ..................................... ................................ X25 7 75 9 >0 New ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . ............ Not Low hAjoh Below Below -- Normal Above hrluoh Above' High Ranked Normal Normal Normal Normal 2118.40 Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 USES 351808082374302 TR -065 (NIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH 2118.40 28.80 cu Q. 2118.20 Q 29.00 2118.00 0 Q. a. 29.20 z 2117.80 0 (U L 29.40 M L 2117.60 m }' A 29.60 L 2117.40 L 29.80 CL C Q d 2117.20 30.00 CL7 Feb Feb Mar Mar 18 25 03 10 2012 2012 2012 2012 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- 11 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.9 212919 m Q Q. .0 28.0 2119.9 4 4 2919 2118.9 S d Duo 39.9 2117.9 z Qz 31.9 2118.9 32.9 211519 �} 33.0 2114.9 L C6 Q cu G 34.0 211319 M J H C � a 35.0 L May Jul Sep Now Jan Mar 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 2912 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 13 SGS 3540 x'0803 01 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 7.10 670.90 4J CU CU Q. 7.20 670.80 4J 7.30 670.70 > z 7.40 679 +69 (U L m L CU (U 4J 7.50 670.50 0 ip VIA L O 7.60 670.40 CU -p m CL C CS L 7.70 670.30 0 Feb Feb Mar Mar 18 25 03 10 2012 2012 2012 2012 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 13 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 672 +9 1 6 +9 0 CU 347 +29 s 27 +85 F � 6.5 347 +15 671 +5 .0 4J a, 347 +19 Q 7 +9 671 +9 G ca 347 +95 r-I 28 +99 } L) L z 7 +5 28 +95 679 +5 L 346 +95 cu } *' 28 +19 M -0 8 +9 679 +9 346 +9$ r ° 28 +15 L �} L 8 +5 *' C6 669 +5 —4 4J Q ° L C6 L 18 25 93 19 Gi 4� 2912 2912 2912 2912 +} ° 9 +9 669 +9 s - Depth to water level — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec -J r H 0 a 9 +5 668 +5 L Nay Jul Sep Now Jan Mar 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 2912 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) 14 USES 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITHWELL) 347 +29 s 27 +85 F 347 +15 Sy .0 27 +99 a, 347 +19 Q 27 +95 ca 347 +95 r-I 28 +99 L 347 +$$ (U 5 28 +95 346 +95 cu } *' 28 +19 346 +9$ L ° 28 +15 L 346 +85 *' C6 28 +29 Q ° Feb Feb Mar Mar L 18 25 93 19 0 2912 2912 2912 2912 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec 12, 2998) 14 UPS 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITH'W at) 25 +99 359 +99 4 4} 25 +59 349 +59 N � G y 26 +99 349 +99 } Z G] 26 +59 348 +59 L 27 +99 348 +99 +4 r 27 +59 347 +5$ y y r-I 28 +99 347 Q +$$ CU +} G M >- 28 +5$ N May Jul Sep Now Jan Mar r- 0 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 2912 0 0 — Daily naxinun depth to water level Daily nininun depth to water level --Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec 12, 2998) (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 16 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) 1.00 4J Qy 55.00 1.50 54.50 2.00 Lo z 54.00 (U L m '-J m o 2.50 P-1 L Q CU DO 4J 53.50 CU 3.00 L CU 4J 4J 4J 53.00 C6 3.50 J Feb Feb Mar Mar L Lo 18 25 03 10 2012 2012 2012 2012 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 16 17 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1.9 55.9 Q- 0 ry 2 +9 54 *$ S o% 3.9 #$ 52•$ 41 +9 51.9 �- #09t9 } CU r -W 7.9 49.9 rl L C6 p 8.9 Gi P 48.$ s N 9.9 C o May Jul Sep Now Jan Mar 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 2912 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997) 17