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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday June 20 2.msg_20110621Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, June 21, 2011 11:41 AM To: Yonts, Woody Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian; Lane, David; Owen, Debra; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke- energy.comI garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; Brady, Harold M.; Kritzer, Jamie; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim; Hoffmann, Jucilene; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar, Neelufa; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; Young, Sarah; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Fransen, Tom; Reeder, Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Lawrence, Torey; Cox, Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Yonts, Woody; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, June 20 NC Drought advisory group, Rainfall amounts indicated on the precipitation maps for the past week were mixed across North Carolina. The maps indicate the much of the mountains region and part of the central Coastal Plain received at least 0.5+ inch rainfall during the period (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ -or- http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /). Of note, rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches are indicated along the NC /Tenn border as well as a small part of the lower Pamlico Sound over Carteret, Craven, and Pamlico Counties. The precipitation maps also indicate that little to no rainfall fell in the Sand Hills, eastern Piedmont, and western Coastal Plain regions, and parts of the northern Coastal Plain. Streamflow conditions in the eastern half of the state as noted on the real -time maps (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) are commonly in the "less than 10th percentile" range along with a small number of sites with flows at record low for the calendar date. An area of streamflow conditions depicted in the normal range continues in the northwest corner and along the NC/Tenn border. Examination of the 28 -day average flows (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) echoes widespread "less than 10th percentile" and record low for the calendar date across much of eastern North Carolina. As of June 19 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 55 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7- day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests minor improvements in overall streamflow relative to 62 percent just a week ago. As noted in past weeks, very little change seems to be occurring in the groundwater depictions for the 10 observation wells in the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills regions within the NC Climate Response network (http://ogwOl.er.usgs.gov/crn/StateMaps/NC.html). Among these 10 wells, groundwater conditions continue to be depicted at levels in the normal (7), below normal (2), and much below normal (1) ranges. Water levels at the six Coastal Plain observation wells within the same network are currently depicted in the below - normal range for 1 wells, much below - normal for 2 wells, and record low for the month at 3 wells. The wells with the record low for the month (June) are: Comfort in Jones County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345809077301408 &ncd =crn) Hoke in Washington County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354418076463601 &ncd =crn) Elizabeth City in Pasquotank County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn) Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. This week's USDM author is awaiting input from the NC group following the weekly conference call. Changes made last week were the expansion of DO across the headwaters of the French Broad River basin in the mountains, minor expansions of D1 in the southern Coastal Plain and northeast Piedmont, and inland expansion of D2 across parts of the Coastal Plain. I'm becoming more concerned that drought depictions in the eastern Piedmont, Sand Hills, and western Coastal Plain regions are becoming understated given the widespread streamflows in the "less than 1 0th percentile" range. One immediate thought is to expand the D1 into the remaining DO area in the upper Cape Fear and Neuse basins. Based on recent rainfall patterns, some restraint was used last week in expanding D1 across parts of the upper Neuse. The second thought is to suggest the group consider further inland D2 expansion towards the eastern Piedmont in the next week or so if no substantial rainfall materializes across central areas of North Carolina. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Brian Fuchs, climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying the first draft, he made no specific comment concerning North Carolina (he is awaiting input following the NC telecom), but did offer the following comment concerning South Carolina: 3) South Carolina: I heard a message of status quo for the week, but really am seeing evidence to degrade the areas along the coast. The indicators are in the D3 /D4 range and we have a lot of D1 /D2 showing yet. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe= precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 6/20/2011 1200 UTC— Created 6/20/11 23:56 UTC -- Streamflow -- 4: 110,11114116TIMMIT110111111111 Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap Current conditions... 4 Tuesday, June 21, 2011 09 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, June 14, 2011 08 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. Lew X10 1 5 -7 r 6 -90 > . � dol- ranked Ajr m ed u w __I , 4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal � When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (June 21 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Jun 14 Current flow (% of) Median Jun 21 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 6.7 cfs 3.2 cfs 190 17 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 16 cfs 14 cfs 4.30 327 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 20 cfs 7.0 cfs 27% 26 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 271 cfs 107 cfs 330 325 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,890 cfs 1,270 cfs 62% 2,039 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 28 cfs 31 cfs 480 64 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 1,070 cfs 1,060 cfs 720 1,480 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 93 cfs 106 cfs 760 139 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, June 20, 2011 6 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, June 20, 2011 As of June 19 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 55 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 30 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. The percentage of sites with 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile "topped out" at 48 percent on June 17 (Friday). Compared to June 12 (Sunday), the current values indicate minor improvement in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 62% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 31 % of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable i i If i Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe New ruin forthe day August - -, - - -- 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through June 20 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 8 L L Explanation No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined Unregulated Regulated 6 IM 0 ❑ 0 Em IF E a IM 0 The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help �n ♦ [1-.3,860,938 °_ it it ]I 5 li 7i xy n s 11111,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,; X -!, Layers -; ❑ Automated DM maps (short string) ❑Q (weekly change in 7 -day median percentile) ® <all other values> Weekly_c_i nid Greater than 50 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile increase Display I Source; Selection rr t Drawing Anal _ �0___ -- Ground Water -- B F U A W - Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 10 10 to 25 percentile increase 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase 0 No percentile change 0 to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease C Display I Source; Selection rr t Drawing Anal _ �0___ -- Ground Water -- B F U A W - Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 10 ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. WES' VII GJMIA �tauntu,,ImrlOtkev,. 17; Warsauu o a akLagan Oak �i�j ;I RTappaannad< Atlantic i Arta " Bedcle '� � Saludg ° u,, �idcir� ham '� ° ¢White Mane Beach aWelc Unia L' bUl a 60,E ' C o �.'��nialHigh '�Eastville P aski - " oanok f� ork Me Virginia Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not ..... ..... — - ..... Low hrluah Below Below Plartnal lave hrluGl Dave' High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 12 USES 351 080823 '430 TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC (REGOLITH) 27.00 2120.00 4J CU CU Q. Q .0 27.50 4J 2119.50 z 28.00 (U L 2119.00 m L CU (U 4J D 28.50 L 2118.50 CU 4mJ 4J C CL CS O 29.00 May Jun Jun Jun 28 04 11 18 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 12 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 0 25 +9 2122 +9 J cu Q Q. .0 26 +9 2121 +9 S 4 � 27 +9 2126 +9 S W 28 +9 2119 +9 d 0 } z L 29 +9 2116+6 5 Q i 39 +9 2117 +9 M C to c} }°, r-I 31 +9 2116 +9 r0 32 +$ 2115 +9 � G M 33 +9 2114 +9 3 c H a 34 +6 L Jul Sep Now Jan Mar May 2919 2919 2919 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 14 SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 7.70 670.30 7.80 670.20 CU Q 7.90 670.10 8.00 670.00 8.10 669.90 L 8.20 669.80 lu 8.30 669.70 L CU 8.40 669.60 C CL 8.50 669.50 0 May Jun Jun Jun 28 04 11 18 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 14 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 6.00 672.00 1 0 (RE t LITH) 44.70 CU 466.80 4J 6.50 671,50 m y 7.00 671.00 466.70 Do L) z 44.90 Q 0 7.50 466.60 670.50 0 4J 8.00 z �y 670.00 y L 466.50 y +. C6 L Gi p 8.50 669.50 J +4 y 45.10 J H 466.40 r 0 a 9.00 669.00 L GU Jul Sep Now Jan Mar May 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 466.30 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) 44.70 466.80 44.80 466.70 44.90 466.60 z �y 45.00 466.50 y �F Ly L +4 y 45.10 466.40 L GU 45.20 466.30 O L Gi 45.30 466.20 +4 CL G] C � d L L 45.40 466.10 0 May Jun Jun Jun 28 04 11 18 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 15 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 USGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) a 40.0 m Q 471.0 Q. 41.E S �« 470.0 S d Qy 42.9 L7 469.0 y 43.9 0 r 468.6 to }°, r 1 44.8 c} y -W 467.$ L C6 Gi G 4 .� M J 466.$ r H 0 CE 46 +6 L Jul Sep Now Jan Mar May 2919 2010 2919 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 17 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) C 4.0 52.0 O F 4.5 51.5 rl 5.0 U 1 51.0 Lo z 0 5.5 CU 50.5 (U L 6.0 m F-1 L 50.0 CU DO Q 4J 6.5 CU 49.5 L 7.0 CU 49.0 C6 7.5 May Jun Jun Jun L 28 04 11 18 Lo 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level A Value exceeds "standard difference" threshold. 17 18 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1 +$ 5555 +9 Q- 2 ry �y .0 54 +$ S 41 o% 3 +0 +$ 52 +$ 41 55 +0 51 +} +0 tq i a 6 +9 59 +$ }y 7 m -W +9 49 +9 L C6 8 Gi P p +9 48 +9 s 9 H o +$ Jul Sep Now Jan Mar May C L 2919 2919 2919 2911 2811 2911 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997) 18