20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday June 06.msg_20110607

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, June 07, 2011 11:38 AM
To:
Yonts, Woody
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian; Lane, David; Owen, Debra;
eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke- energy.comI garry_grabow @ncsu.edu;
george.mathews @noaa.gov; Brady, Harold M.; Kritzer, Jamie; jcweaver @usgs.gov;
Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim; Hoffmann, Jucilene; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar,
Neelufa; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov;
rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; Young, Sarah; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Fransen, Tom; Reeder,
Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Lawrence, Torey; Cox, Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Yonts, Woody;
Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, June 06
NC Drought advisory group,
Very little rainfall occurred across most of North Carolina during the past week, especially the central Piedmont and
Coastal Plain regions within the Yadkin, Cape Fear and Neuse River basins where no rainfall is indicated as having
occurred (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ -or- http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure /). Even within the northern
Coastal Plain region, rainfall totals less than 0.5 inch were predominant. Only in the southwest Piedmont and southern
mountains are there limited areas with 0.5+ inch totals indicated as having occurred this past week.
Whereas a mix of streamflow conditions has been observed across the state during past weeks, below - normal streamflow
conditions have become more visibly widespread across much of the state on the current streamflow map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). The only area of streamflow conditions depicted in the
normal range is a small pocket in the northwest corner within the New River and upper Yadkin headwaters basins.
Streamflow conditions depicted in the "less than 10th percentile range" are widespread in the eastern half of the state
with a growing number of sites indicated at record low for the calendar date. Of note is an area within the Tar River basin
where 6 sites are depicted at record low levels for the calendar date. Examination of the 28 -day average streamflow map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) indicates conditions in the "less than 10th
percentile" and record low levels for these six sites in the Tar River basin.
As of June 05 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 63 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7-
day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates
substantial deterioration in overall streamflow relative to 33 percent just a week ago.
As noted during previous weeks, groundwater conditions continue to be depicted at levels in the normal (6), below normal
(3), and much below normal (1) ranges for the 10 observation Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills wells within the NC
Climate Response network ( http:// ogw01. er. usgs .gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html). Of interest, water levels at the Chapel Hill
well are still slowly rising following the heavy rainfall that occurred on May 27
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nwis /uv ?site no= 355522079043001).
Water levels at the six Coastal Plain observation wells within the same network are currently depicted in the normal range
for 1 well, below - normal range for 2 wells, and much below - normal for 3 wells. The 3 wells with water levels in the much
below normal ranges were depicted at record low for the month just last week. The "improvement" is actually a reflection
of the shift in background statistics from May into June and is not a reflection of any increase in water levels. These three
wells are the Comfort well in Jones County, Hoke well in Washington County, and Elizabeth City well in Pasquotank
County, all located within the area of the Coastal Plain where 30 -day precipitation deficits in the range of 10 to 25 percent
have been recently noted.
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
The USDM author is awaiting input from the NC group before making any changes. Changes made last week were the
introduction of D2 across the eastern Coastal Plain and some adjustments to the D1 depiction in the Sand Hills and
southern Coastal Plain regions.

As for this week's depiction, there have been recommendations that DO be introduced across the western Piedmont and
southern mountains due to limited rainfalls and declining streams noted during the past few weeks (Ref: Tanner and
Galleher).
Based on the streamflow conditions noted in the Tar River basin, it would be my recommendation to return that part of NC
back to D1, which then raises the question as to how to depict the drought across the Neuse River basin. It would be my
recommendation that all of the Neuse and Tar be placed into D1. Putting the Tar basin into D1 may allow for further
deterioration to D2 in the next few weeks if no substantial rainfall occurs.
I would suggest "status quo" for the New, upper Yadkin, and upper Cape Fear( ?) with an acknowledgment that
deteriorating conditions may be setting into these areas during the next few weeks if no substantial rainfall occurs.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday evening, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Matthew Rosencrans, meteorologist with the NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the
USDM author for this week's release. In his "first thoughts" email, he made the following comments concerning the
Carolinas region:
2) Carolinas - I will defer until the conference call tomorrow, but
coastal South Carolina and southeastern NC seem to have worsened a bit
during the past week.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 6/6/011 1200 UTC— Created 6/6/11 23:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
4

Tuesday, June 07, 2011 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, May 31, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
Lew X10
1 5 -7 r 6 -90 >
. �
dol- ranked Ajr
m ed u
w __I
,
4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal
�
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage

of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (June 07 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow May 31
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Jun 07
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
9.6
cfs
6.0
cfs
290
40 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
102
cfs
37
cfs
330
291 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
31
cfs
14
cfs
790
38 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
263
cfs
159
cfs
580
504 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
2,190
cfs
1,630
cfs
1000
1,940 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
38
cfs
32
cfs
480
64 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,160
cfs
1,020
cfs
680
1,570 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
110
cfs
85
cfs
640
160 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, June 06, 2011
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, June 06, 2011
As of June 05 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 63 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 29 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to May 29 (Sunday), the current values indicate substantial deterioration in overall streamflow conditions
during course of the past week, considering 33% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 17% of sites
were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

i
i
If i
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe
New ruin forthe day
August - -, - - --
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through June 06 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

L
4,11;
_.
11110
Previous 30 days
Monday, June 06, 2011
H
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
0
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
0
❑
0

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
_ " ♦ 1:3 860,938
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❑ Automated DM maps (short string)
-;; ❑Q (weekly change in 7 -day median percentile)
® <all other values>
Weekly c_1
n1d
Greater than 50 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile increase
Uisplay source;eiectioni 0! rr
- - ,, Arial — 10 l B -1 U w _ •
Drawing ___ — — — —
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10
10 to 25 percentile increase
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
0
No percentile change
0 to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
Uisplay source;eiectioni 0! rr
- - ,, Arial — 10 l B -1 U w _ •
Drawing ___ — — — —
-- Ground Water --
Please visit the Climate Response Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
10

ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
WES' VrR)+�10A �t�unta A � ��f'�rlQi°k�e�u e , " UUarsaw
ak d r
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Explanation - Percentile class
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......ee __
New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not
..... ..... — - ..... d.
Low hrluah Below Below Plartnal lave hrluGl Dave' High Ranked
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

12
USES
351 080823 '430
TR-065
(NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC
(REGOLITH)
27.40
2119.70
CU
Q.
27.50
2119.60
27.60
2119.50
z
q
27.70
2119.40
0
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m
27.80
2119.30
L
(U
CU
D
4J
27.90
2119.20
L
O
4J
CU
4J
m
4J
28.00
2119.10
3
-0
CL
Q
C
28.10
CL7
May
May
May Jun
14
21
28 04
2011
2011
2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
12

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
USES
351 0808237430
TR -065 (SIC -144) AT
BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH
a
0
25 +9
2122 +9
J
cu
Q.
.0
26 +9
2121 +9
S
Q
27 +9
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d
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L
29 +9
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5
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33 +9
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r
H
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34 +6
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L
Jul Sep
Now Jan
Mar May
2919 2919
2919 2911
2911 2911
— Daily nean depth to
water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13

14
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May May
May
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ca
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04
2011 2011
2011
2011
- - -- Provisional Data Subject
to Revision
- - --
0
Measured depth to water level
— Depth to water
level
14

(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT
a
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- Depth
669.$
Jul Sep Now Jan Mar Nay
2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011
- Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
15
USGS
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May May May Jun
ca
14 21 28 $4
2$11 2$11 2$11 2$11
- - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - --
- Depth
to water level - Estinated depth to water level
15

(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16
"SGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE ! LITI
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Jul Sep Now Jan Mar May
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— Daily nean depth to water level
— Estinated daily nean depth to water level
Period of approved data
Period of provisional data
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16

17
USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,)
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May May May Jun
14 21 28 04
2011 2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
17

18
USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR
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Jul Sep Now Jan
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2919 2919 2919 2911
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0
— Daily nean depth to water level
Period of approved data
Period of provisional data
— Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997)
18