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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday July 18.msg_20110719Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, July 19, 2011 10:59 AM To: Yonts, Woody Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Haines, Brian; Lane, David; Owen, Debra; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke- energy.comI garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; Brady, Harold M.; Kritzer, Jamie; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; Prevette, Jim; Hoffmann, Jucilene; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; Peele, Linwood; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; Orbon, Mike; Sarwar, Neelufa; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; Young, Sarah; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Fransen, Tom; Reeder, Tom; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Lawrence, Torey; Cox, Vernon N; Munden, Wayne; Yonts, Woody; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, July 18 NC Drought advisory group, Following some decent rainfall totals across much of North Carolina the first week of July, rainfall totals during the past week were lower, particularly across the northern Piedmont and northern "two- thirds" of the Coastal Plain region where totals were generally less than 0.5 inch. The largest areas receiving 0.5+ inch rainfalls were in the mountains along the Tennessee border, much of the Yadkin River basin, and Sand Hills region. Streamflow conditions noted on the current real -time maps (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) continue to depict widespread below conditions in the eastern half of the state. Streamflows at many USGS streamgages in the eastern half of the state continue to be depicted in the "less than 10th percentile" range with five sites where streamflow are indicated at record low for the current calendar day. In the western half, streamflow conditions continue to be a mix with predominantly normal conditions indicated mountains region adjacent to the Tennessee border. As noted in previous weeks, there is a growing area of below normal conditions in the western half, particularly in the Catawba and Broad River basins where D1 was introduced a few weeks ago. In these two basins, the below - normal streamflows are mostly in the 10th -24th percentile ranges. As of July 17 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 52 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7- day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage indicates declines in overall streamflow relative to 26 percent just a week ago. Among the 10 observations wells in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont regions in the Climate Response Network (http://ogwOl.er.usgs.gov/crn/StateMaps/NC.html), water levels are depicted in the above normal range for 1 well in Cherokee County, the normal range for 6 wells, below normal for 2 wells, and much below normal for 1 well at Chapel Hill (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn). Water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain are in the below normal (2 wells), much below normal (1 well), and record low for July (3 wells). These three wells are: Comfort in Jones County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345809077301408 &ncd =crn) Hoke in Washington County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354418076463601 &ncd =crn) Elizabeth City in Pasquotank County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn) Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. Following the rainfalls during the first week in July, reductions in all drought categories were made for North Carolina, particularly from the northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain. With little to no rainfall in the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain regions, the group may want to consider some deterioration for this area. This is the area where improvements were applied to last week's USDM release following the rainfalls during the first week in July. This raises the issue of potential "flip flopping" on drought categories and needs to be discussed during the call. As of this writing, no communication to indicate the thoughts of this week's USDM author has been received. As for the western half of the state, would suggest use of "status quo" for this region, including the Broad and Catawba basins where some D1 category is currently depicted. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. Matt Rosencrans, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release. Also as of Tuesday morning, no "preliminary thoughts" email has been provided. x7.711 ti ■L1[41i1XT /Miw11 4111ZILWA M 11463bli'Id►rifiULlIiL[ USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 711812011 1200 UTC— Created 7118111 23:55 UTC -- Streamflow -- Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap Current conditions... Tuesday, July 19, 2011 09 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, July 05, 2011 08 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. Lew X10 1 5 -7 r 6 -90 > . � dol- ranked Ajr m ed u w __I , 4OW Ahpvp MUch abO �8l tral . rmal � When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (July 19 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Jul 05 Current flow (% of) Median Jul 19 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 3.4 cfs 2.0 cfs 12% 17 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 47 cfs 6.4 cfs 3.30 192 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 7.0 cfs 4.6 cfs 20% 23 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 183 cfs 109 cfs 470 232 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,510 cfs 1,230 cfs 770 1,600 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 22 cfs 26 cfs 530 49 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 963 cfs 963 cfs 70% 1,380 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 110 cfs 80 cfs 700 114 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, July 18, 2011 5 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, July 18, 2011 As of July 17 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 52 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 22 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. The percentage of sites with 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile "topped out" at 23 percent on July 12 (Tuesday). Compared to July 10 (Sunday), the current values indicate declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 26% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 13% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable i i If i Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day t Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or lowe New min forthe day F+ September + 1 = t= t 2010 2010 2010 2010 i 2011 2011 Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through July 18 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html I L Previous 30 days Monday, July 1, 2011 Explanation Unregulated Regulated No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) 0 ❑ D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined 0 ❑ s The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help �n ♦ [1-.3,860,938 °_ it it ]I 5 li 7i xy n s ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,; X -!, Layers -; ❑ Automated DM maps (short string) ❑Q (weekly change in 7 -day median percentile) ® <all other values> Weekly_c_i nid Greater than 50 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile increase Source; Selection Display � Drawing Rey ❑ rlal 0 I B I -- Ground Water -- Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 9 10 to 25 percentile increase 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase 0 No percentile change 0 to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease Source; Selection Display � Drawing Rey ❑ rlal 0 I B I -- Ground Water -- Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on 9 ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. WES VIR+SIMIA ak �taunto � �ti�rlotte�� . � 17 uUarsauu La an o a ,. Oak I _'R I Ta,ppaA'a o& Atlantic Bedtle ° i Arta �° � "�,SalUd'$ 4 skin ham ela Unia ° White Mane Beach L. < UI o o , 60 1 ig CLaniaJighs Eashrille P asks oanok.. }� ort He Virginia 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ..... d. Low hrluah Below ""'Bel' Normal lave hrluGl l aved High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 10 11 USES 351 080823 '430 TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC (REGOLITH) 28.80 2119.00 4J CU CU Q. Q .0 28.50 4J 2118.50 z 29.00 (U L 2118.80 m L CU (U 4J D 29.50 L 2117.50 CU 4mJ 4J C CL 30.00 Jun Jul Jul Jul 25 02 09 16 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 11 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.0 2120.0 m Q Q. a, 28.0 2119.0 0 29.0 2118.0 z Do L) 30.0 2117.0 L 4 > M r 31.0 2116.0 r 4� 0 32.0 2115.0 1 4J C6 L Gi Q p 33.0 2114.0 +} M >- J r H a 34.0 � L Sep Now Jan Mar May Jul 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 13 SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 NC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT m C 7 60 - 670.40 7.80 670.20 *' 8.00 670.00 0> z 0 8.20 669,80 CU (U , m L ' 8.40 669.60 1 CU Q DO CU to 8.60 669.40 m _ -W 8.80 669.2e C6 = a Jun Jul Jul Jul Lo 25 02 09 16 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 13 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 6.00 672.00 1 0 (RE t LITH) 44.80 CU 466.70 4J 6.50 671,50 m s y 7.00 671.00 466.60 Do L) z Q 0 7.50 670.50 0 45.00 466.50 > 4 1 J 8.00 z 45.10 670.00 y L 466.40 +. C6 m L Gi p 8.50 669.50 J 45.20 466.30 J H A r � a 9.00 r0 669.00 L Sep Now Jan Mar May Jul L 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data 466.20 Gi s Period of approved data (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 14 USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) 44.80 466.70 s 44.90 466.60 *' 45.00 466.50 > z 45.10 466.40 m L °P 45.20 466.30 GU A r0 L O 45.30 466.20 Gi s L C � C CL G] d � 45.40 466.10 L 0 Jun Jul Jul Jul 25 02 09 16 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 14 (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 USGS 355522079 143001 OR -069 (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITH) a m 40.0 471.0 Q. 41.E S �« 470.0 S d Qy 42.9 L7 469.0 y 43.9 468.6 --I to }°, r 1 44.8 c} y -W 467.$ L C6 Gi G 4 .� M J 466.$ r- H � a 46.9 L Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2910 2019 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 16 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) C 5.0 4J 51.0 F q 5.5 CU 50.5 4J U 6.0 Lo 4 I z 0 50.0 cu 4 0 6.5 D (U L m 49.5 L Q 7.0 CU D O 4 J to 49.0 CU 4 3 L 7.5 CU 48.5 fq C6 8.0 a Jun Jul Jul Jul L 25 02 09 16 Lo 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level A Value exceeds "standard difference" threshold. 16 17 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1 +$ 5555 +9 Q- 2.0 54 +$ 41 o% 3 +0 +$ 52 +$ 41 0 55 +0 51 0 +} +$ i a 6 +9 59 +$ }y 7 m +9 49 +9 L C6 8 Gi P p +9 48 +$ s 9 H o +$ Sep Now Jan Mar Nay Jul C 2918 2919 2911 2911 2811 2911 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2997) 17