20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday January 23 2012.msg_20120124

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, January 24, 2012 11:33 AM
To:
Linwood Peele
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov;
todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, January 23, 2012
NC Drought advisory group,
The precipitation totals maps (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure) indicate
that much of North Carolina received 0.5+ inch rainfall during the past week with higher totals in the southwest Piedmont
and southern mountains region. Widespread 2+ inches are indicated for the counties in the Hiwassee, Little Tennessee,
and upper French Broad River basins. Two areas are indicated as receiving less than 0.5 inch precipitation: (1) a narrow
band from the Triad region northeast towards Warren and Halifax Counties at the border with Virginia and (2) along the
southern coast in Columbus, Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender, and Onslow Counties.
Streamflow conditions indicated on the current real -time streamflow map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) reflect the effects of the recent rains although the levels
of improvement in eastern NC are visibly mixed on the maps. In the western half of the state, widespread normal
conditions continue to be depicted along with above normal conditions in the southern mountains, the same area that
received 2+ inches during the past week. In the eastern half of the state, below - normal conditions continue to be visible
although not as widespread as noted in the past few weeks. Widespread conditions in the "less than 10th percentile"
range continue to be visible from the upper Neuse River basin into the Tar River basin
As of January 22 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 37 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for
7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests
minor declines in overall streamflows relative to 34 percent just a week ago.
Effects of the recent rains are visible in the groundwater wells in the western half of the state. Water levels at the 10 Blue
Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells depicted on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina
(http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) indicate water levels in the above normal range for 3 wells, normal
range for 5 wells, and continued much below normal for 2 wells:
• well near Marston in Scotland County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn)
• well at Chapel Hill in Orange County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn), functionally "dry" since late
October
Water levels at 2 of the 6 Coastal Plain wells are currently depicted in the normal ranges. These two wells are located in
Pitt and Washington Counties in the central Coastal Plain. Water levels are depicted in the below - normal range for
remaining 4 wells in the southern and northern Coastal Plain regions.
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.

Changes to last week's map include an introduction of D2 from South Carolina into the portion of Brunswick County within
the Waccamaw River basin. The northern D1 extent in the Coastal Plain was expanded slightly to cover parts of
Johnston, Wayne, Greene, Pitt, and Martin Counties.
Concerning this week's release...
The USDM author did not make any changes in the drought depictions for the eastern Carolinas in draft 1 because of the
recent rains. While he acknowledged the recent rains, he also indicated that multiple indicators still suggest severe
drought depictions.
The NC group has been grappling with this issue now for several weeks in which streamflow conditions and groundwater
levels have been well below normal throughout much of eastern North Carolina. However, with some rainfall occurrences
and the lack of widespread drought effects (agricultural, water supply, wildfires), it has been challenging to determine the
appropriate categories for depiction. Part of this issue has also been complicated by the possibility of impending rainfall
events forecast for parts of the state.
So the overall condition appears to be that recent rainfalls are keeping the eastern half of the state in a "holding pattern"
until drought effects become more evident.
The use of "status quo" in the western half of North Carolina continues to be appropriate.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Eric Luebehusen, meteorologist with the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board in Washington, DC, is the USDM author
for this week's release. In the email accompanying the draft 1 release, he made the following specific comments
concerning the Carolinas region:
2) Southeast — Despite conditions that have trended toward more severe drought, I held off on any Dx
increases in the eastern Carolinas and Georgia since some pcp was recorded this week, although amounts were
generally less than an inch so far. I pulled the northwestern edge of the D3 -DO a bit southeast per MPE totals that
ranged from 2 to 3 inches. The modifications were slight, and lined up with the latest NLDAS, 3m SPI, as well as 60- & 90-
day pnp via AHPS. In Florida, I introduced D2 to account for 3m SPI (reflected D3) and NLDAS Top 1 m (also D3)... but
fine -tuned based on streamflows and AHPS 60- and 90 -day pnp. Rain in Florida was confined (so far) to the Panhandle
and nrn portions of the state.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/

Image shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 1/24/2012 1200 UTC— Created 1/24/12 15:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap
Current conditions...
4

Tuesday, January 24, 2012 08 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, January 17, 2012 10 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
X10
Lew
1024 25-75 76 -90 >
�
............ - �: High Idol- ranked l
M N ch beds ur
- ---- ---- -�
Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV,
mar €Y I r� rm l
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box

appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (January 24 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Jan 17
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Jan 24
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
102
cfs
111
cfs
45%
244 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
295
cfs
593
cfs
60%
983 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
26
cfs
31
cfs
260
120 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
549
cfs
619
cfs
45%
1,380 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
2,580
cfs
2,430
cfs
1070
2,280 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
52
cfs
70
cfs
82%
85 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
2,030
cfs
3,800
cfs
1880
2,020 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
239
cfs
791
cfs
2260
350 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, January 23, 2012
I, SGS
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, January 23, 2012
As of January 22 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 37 percent of sites across North
Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 19 percent
of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new
minimum for calendar date.
Compared to January 15 (Sunday), the current values indicate minor declines in overall streamflow conditions during
course of the past week, considering 34% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 13% of sites were
below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

1
100
ONN A4,
Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -dad?
Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or love
New min forthe clay
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through January 23 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

��? ,
M
Previous 7 days
Monday, January 2, 2012
t 2r
ok
14"
❑ j
u
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
r
s'
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
❑
0

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
Ei Leers
❑►r Automated DM maps (short string)
E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percen'
® gall othervalues?
10 to 25 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
E
rrr h,
El
n
Display Gaurce !Selection J
Drawing „ >, } ❑ AHal 1 B U — _i •
-- Ground Water --
10
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
No percentile change
g to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease
E
rrr h,
El
n
Display Gaurce !Selection J
Drawing „ >, } ❑ AHal 1 B U — _i •
-- Ground Water --
10

Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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......ee __
New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not
Bel' ..... — - ....... "
Low hrluch Below Belaw Normal lave hrluGl l aved High Ranked
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

12
USES
351 080823 '430
TR-065
(NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC
(REGOLITH)
30.00
2117.00
4J
CU
Q.
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30.50
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0
Dec
Jan
Jan Jan
31
07
14 21
2011
2012
2012 2012
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
12

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
USES
351 0808237430
TR -065 (SIC -144) AT
BLANTYRE,
HC (RE OLITH
a
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212919
m
Q
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35.0
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Mar May
Jul Sep
Nov
Jan
2911 2911
2911 2911
2911
2912
— Daily nean depth to
water level Period of provisional data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13

14
SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI
6.88
671.20
a
4J
CU
CU
Q.
7.00
671.00
7.20
670.80
z
7.40
670.60
CU
L
7.60
670.40
CU
CL
C
7.80
670.20
0
Dec Jan Jan Jan
31 07 14 21
2011 2012 2012 2012
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
14

(EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT
a
3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G
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Mar May Jul Sep Now Jan
CL7
28 +15
2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912
— Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data
Dec Jan Jan Jan
Period of approved data
31 97 14 21
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
(http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn)
15
USES
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Dec Jan Jan Jan
L
31 97 14 21
0
2911 2912 2912 2912
- - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - --
- Depth to water level
— Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec
12, 2998)
15

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Mar may Jul Sep
Now Jan
r-
0
2911 2911 2911 2911
2911 2912
ca
— Daily
naxinun depth to water level
Daily
nininun depth to water level
--Daily
nean depth to water level
Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional data
Lowest
recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27.89 ft Dec
12, 2998)
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
16

17
USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,)
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Dec Jan Jan Jan
31 07 14 21
2011 2012 2012 2012
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
17

18
USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160)
NR
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Now
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2911
2912
— Daily nean depth to water level
Period of approved data
Period of provisional data
— Lowest recorded water level prior to
MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007)
18