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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday January 02 2012.msg_20120103Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, January 03, 2012 11:35 AM To: Linwood Peele Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, January 02, 2012 NC Drought advisory group, Happy New Year 2012! Examination of the precipitation totals map (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /) indicates a mix of precipitation amounts across North Carolina during the past week. Several widespread areas of 0.5 to 1 inch are noted for the western Piedmont, western Coastal Plain, and the Outer Banks. Outside of these areas, little to no precipitation occurred during the past week. Inspection of the 30 -day percent of normal precipitation indicates a large area in the 10 -25 percent range in the southern and central inland Coastal Plain. Streamflow conditions indicated on the current real -time streamflow map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) reveal two distinct areas across North Carolina with differing streamflow patterns. West of a line running roughly from Mecklenburg County northeast through Guilford County, streamflows are generally in the normal ranges at most USGS streamgage stations. East of this same line, streamflow conditions are predominantly below normal with numerous occurrences of "less than 10th percentile" conditions across the Coastal Plain as well as several USGS streamgages at the 1 percentile (record low) for the calendar date The continuing lack of precipitation across the eastern half of the state is deepening the dryness pattern noted in previous weeks for the Coastal Plain. As of January 01 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 25 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests little change in overall streamflows relative to 20 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells depicted on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) indicate water levels in the above normal range for 2 wells, normal range for 6 wells, and much below normal for 2 wells: • well near Marston in Scotland County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) • well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn), functionally "dry" since late October Water levels in the 6 Coastal Plain wells are now in the below - normal range for 4 wells and much below - normal for the 2 wells: • well near Grantham in Wayne County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn) • well near Simpson in Pitt County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn) Because of a shorter week due to a holiday, draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. Changes to last week's map reductions in the DO /D1 depictions across parts of the Broad River basin in the southwest Piedmont, per suggestions provided by Pat Tanner (NWS Greenville - Spartanburg) who noted improved hydrologic conditions in the area. Due to the growing precipitation deficits and widespread below - normal streamflow / groundwater conditions in the Coastal Plain, there may be some justification for expanding the DO and D1 drought depictions in this area. In particular, would suggest the NC group recommend DO expansion across parts of the northern Coastal Plain as well as eastward expansion of the D1 across the inland Coastal Plain as far north as Washington and Tyrrell Counties. As for the Outer Banks, would suggest "status quo" due to the rainfall amounts during the past week. Suggest "status quo" elsewhere for this week's release. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. Brad Rippey, meteorologist with the USDA Office of the Chief Economist in Washington, D.C, is the USDM author for this week's release. In the "preliminary thoughts" email, he made no specific comments concerning the Carolinas region. However, he indicated the southern Altantic region "needs some attention (dryness /drought development or expansion)." [►7�7 *,711 ■. ■1�1i7i1!�711'�►rif7 *, kill L1 USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 17372012 1200 UTC— Created 173/12 14:47 UTC -- Streamflow -- Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps 3 at: htto:Hwaterwatch. usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma Current conditions... Tuesday, January 03, 2012 09 :30ET Last week's conditions ... (two weeks ago) Tuesday, 0ecenber 20, 2011 09 :30ET WIM MUSGS When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (January 03 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Explanation - Percentile classes Flow Dec 20 , flow (% of) Low X10 10-2-4--'j �7 76 -90 >0 � ...... � ............ - Hi I�ol- ranked jr N m ed ur - ---- ---- -- ebw P trnal A,,we %asU)a, , _ mar €Y,,aI When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (January 03 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Dec 20 Current flow (% of) Median Jan 03 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 76 cfs 79 cfs 35% 224 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 193 cfs 246 cfs 310 790 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 33 cfs 28 cfs 340 82 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 663 cfs 537 cfs 640 838 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,910 cfs 2,080 cfs 108% 1,920 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 36 cfs 48 cfs 70% 69 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 1,300 cfs 1,910 cfs 96% 1,980 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 176 cfs 203 cfs 70% 290 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: 5 Monday, January 02, 2012 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, January 02, 2012 As of January 01 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 25 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 6 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to December 25 (Sunday), the current values indicate little change in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 6% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 20% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable 1 il Less than 25th percentile Less than 10th percentile New min forthe clay Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day indicated percentile range or love ONN AN Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through January 02 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long-term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html Previous 7 days Monday, January 02, 2012 Previous 30 days Monday, January 02, 2012 Explanation Unregulated Regulated No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D ❑ D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) r s' D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined ❑ s ❑0 `1 a. .... . .. . ,, S The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit `view Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools ''Window Help El Leers ❑►r Automated DM maps (short string) El ® gall othervalues? 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease ej Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E °n [ ? �+ i ER Display Source Selection J ; 0 1 Drawing „> } ❑ ,�a 1G . B 1 U w _i • 0 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase 40 No percentile change g to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease ej Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E °n [ ? �+ i ER Display Source Selection J ; 0 1 Drawing „> } ❑ ,�a 1G . B 1 U w _i • 0 -- Ground Water -- Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. tiNESIR+IFIIA taunt4htl4itev t 17 Uarsaw ok *gym .Logan pak V U' R G, �'aPpa 'annock Atlantic p into Deckle $alud'g elc Unio c[tttrn hams ` C Q ¢White $tone Beach 11 o, L' b�Y 60 ��, G °' sa unial H *i ( o � i y a� � O�C70k g 6``�. �Eashrille P asks t� Oft He Virginia 4onway rth" "f7 rtle Beach Kingstree, Myrtle Beach 'c Georgetown nerviile t! a rr t i c O e e a a 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ....... " Low hrluch Below Below Nonnal love hrluGl l oved High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 10 11 USES 351808082374302 TR -065 HC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH C 31 66 - 2116.66 4J m = 31.56 2115,56 a, 32.66 2115.66 LO z o 32,56 2114,56 CU v+ 33.66 2114.66 +4 L Q CU DO * ' 33.56 CU 2113,56 L *' 34.66 CU +o r 2113.66 3 C Q G 34.56 C L Dec Dec Dec Dec ca 16 17 24 31 2611 2611 2611 2611 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 11 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.E 2129.9 m Q. .0 28 +9 .,. 2119.9 4 29 +9 .,. 2118.9 � d Duo 39.9 ... 2117.9 z 31 +9 2118.9 4J M 32.9 2115.9 2 �} 33 +$ 2114.9 L C6 Q cu Q 34 +$ 2113.9 M J C CE 35 +6 L Mar May Jul Sep Now Jan 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 12 13 SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 NC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT m C 6 80 - 671.20 7.00 671.00 y cQ 4 7.2$ 670 +80 Lo 0 Qb L 7.40 670.60 m L Q GU } 7.6e 670.40 C: ^i L CU m 7.80 670,20 C d L Dec Dec Dec Dec ca 10 17 24 31 2011 2011 2011 2011 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 13 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local nurnborVVK'284. NCOENR Lake VVhoo|or Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County ROTE: Effective December 13, 2011, the LakeTTheeler Research Station observation well in T-Take County will be used in lieu of the Chapel Hill well in Orange County. Water levels at the Chapel Hill well () have been dry since latter October 14 SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 0 CU 4J 6.5 7.0 671.0 4J M 670.0 8.5 669.5 4J C6 L CU 9.0 669.0 9.5 u68.5 OL Mar May Jul Sep Now Jan 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 — Daily nean depth to water level — Period of provisional data Period of approved data (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local nurnborVVK'284. NCOENR Lake VVhoo|or Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County ROTE: Effective December 13, 2011, the LakeTTheeler Research Station observation well in T-Take County will be used in lieu of the Chapel Hill well in Orange County. Water levels at the Chapel Hill well () have been dry since latter October 14 15 USES 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITHWELL) C '0 347.35 s 27.76 F 347,36 Sy 27,75 a, 347.25 27.86 L7 347,26 r-I 27.85 CU L 347.15 (U 27,96 L 347.1$ cu } *' 27.95 CU 347.$5 L ° 28.66 CU L 347.0$ }' 28,65 Q G Dec Dec Dec Dec L 16 17 24 31 C7 2611 2611 2611 2611 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2611 (27.89 ft Dec 12, 2668) 15 UPS 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITH'W at) 25 +$$ 35$ +$$ 4 3 +6$ C 4} 41 52 +6$ 4J m r-I N 0� 4. 25 +5$ GU � 349 +5$ 3 +8$ � G rl 52 +4$ °} 7 26 +$$ 349 +$$ x G ai 4 +$$ 26 +5$ x z 348 +5$ 52 +2$ 27,$$ 348 +$$ y 4 y L 41 M r-I L +5$ 347 +5$ L 4J27 52 +$$ m s 4 ° +4$ >- 28 +$$ 51 +8$ L CU J N Mar may Jul Sep Now Jan r- 0 2$11 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 0 � C 4 +6$ 0 — Daily naxinun depth to water level Daily nininun depth to water level --Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2$11 (27 +89 ft Dec 12, 2$$8) (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usas.aov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &aaencv cd =USGS &referred module =sw 16 USES 353210077153801 PI -532 (NC -160) SIR SIMPSON, N (URFI IAL.) 3 +6$ C 52 +6$ 4J m r-I GU � O 3 +8$ 52 +4$ °} � G ai 4 +$$ x z y 52 +2$ �F y L 4 +2$ M L' 52 +$$ m s 4 ° +4$ 51 +8$ L CU J L � C 4 +6$ c ° 51 +6$ CL7 Dec Dec Dec Dec 1$ 17 24 31 2$11 2$11 2$11 2$11 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 16 17 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1.0 55.9 Q- 0 2.0 . 54.0 S � 3.9 53 � #$ � 4 #$ 52.0 41 5.9 51.9 +} O '° 5 #$ 50.9 �} r +. 7.0 49.0 rl L C6 p 8.0 Gi P 48.0 s N 9.0 C o Mar May Jul Sep Now Jan 2911 2911 2011 2911 2011 2012 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007) 17