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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday February 20 2012.msg_20120221Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, February 21, 2012 11:07 AM To: Linwood Peele; Donna Jackson Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne. Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody.yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, February 20, 2012 NC Drought advisory group, With exception of parts of the southern Piedmont and mountains region, precipitation totals across North Carolina during the past week exceeded 0.5+ inch, as indicated by the precipitation totals maps for state (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure). Higher totals of 1 to 2+ inches are indicated as having occurred across portions of the Coastal Plain, particularly across Washington, Tyrrell, and Dare Counties. The occurrence of precipitation has resulted in a mix of streamflow conditions across the state, as indicated by the current real -time streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). Streamflow conditions across the northern half of the state vary between normal and below - normal conditions. What is noticeable in this area as being different from last week's streamflow map is that "less than 10th percentile" conditions are currently not as widespread across the northern half. Streamflow conditions across the southern half are predominantly in the below - normal range, including the southern mountains where normal streamflow conditions have been dominant in recent weeks. The most widespread "less than 10th percentile" range is visible in the Broad River basin and from the Sand Hills southeast towards Brunswick County. Examination of the 28 -day average streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) continues to echo the pattern noted in recent weeks whereby below - normal conditions have shifted inland into the western Piedmont region. Widespread 28 -day average flows in the "less than 10th percentile" range as well as record low for the calendar day are depicted from the western Piedmont into Coastal Plain. As of February 19 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 81 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests substantial declines in overall streamflows relative to 59 percent just a week ago. As noted in the previous weekly summaries, the groundwater levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells continue to be depicted on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) in the normal range for 8 wells, continued much below normal (less than 10th percentile) at the Marston well in Scotland County, and record low for the month at the Chapel Hill well in Orange County (functionally dry since late October): • well near Marston in Scotland County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) • well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn), functionally "dry" since late October Water levels in 2 of the 6 Coastal Plain wells in Pitt and Washington Counties continue to be depicted in the normal ranges. The water levels at the 3 of the 4 remaining wells are depicted in the below - normal range in Brunswick County, Jones County, and Pasquotank County. Water levels at the remaining well in Wayne County are in the much below - normal range ( http:// groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 351849078163901 &ncd =crn). Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Tuesday morning with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Changes made to last week's release included some D1 expansion across the northern Coastal Plain covering the Tar River basin. An expansion of DO was also made in the western Piedmont across parts of the Broad and Catawba River basins. Concerning this week's release... With the occurrence of some rainfall across the northern half of the state as well as the Coastal Plain, it appears that "status quo" may be appropriate for these areas in this week's release. While streamflow conditions do not indicate any long -term improvements, conditions at the moment appear to be in a holding pattern for this week's release. In the southwest Piedmont as well as the southern mountains region, the NC drought group needs to continue monitoring this area for possible adjustments in the coming week if no substantial precipitation occurs. It appears an expansion of DO into the southern mountains may be warranted. In the Sand Hills region towards Brunswick County, any deterioration in drought depictions would involve an expansion of D2. However, based on the discussion in the previous couple of drought calls, it appears the group is monitoring for impacts beyond hydrological conditions to implement any changes. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Monday night, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Mark Svoboda, climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska, is the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made no specific comments concerning the Carolinas region. North Carolina, but did indicate that D4 has been introduced into southern South Carolina. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 2/21/2012 1200 UTC— Created 2/21/12 13:55 UTC -- Streamflow -- 4: I � •* 1 111111111 Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: httD:Hwaterwatch. usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma Current conditions... 4 Tuesday, February 21, 2012 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, February 14, 2012 08 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. X10 Lew 1024 5 -7 76 -90 > � ............ - �: High Idol- ranked l M N ch beds ur - ---- ---- -� Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV, mar €Y I r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (February 21 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Feb 14 Current flow (% of) Median Feb 21 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 83 cfs 320 cfs 870 368 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 262 cfs 523 cfs 540 975 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 20 cfs 145 cfs 1070 136 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 310 cfs 1,200 cfs 1130 1,060 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,610 cfs 1,990 cfs 840 2,380 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 41 cfs 41 cfs 460 89 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 1,610 cfs 1,610 cfs 750 2,150 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 248 cfs 242 cfs 74% 329 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, February 20, 2012 I, SGS 6 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, February 20, 2012 As of February 19 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 81 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 54 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to February 12 (Sunday), the current values indicate substantial declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 59% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 32% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable 1 100 ONN A4, Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -dad? Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or love New min forthe clay Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through February 20 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 8 Previous 7 days Monday, February 20, 2012 F07 Previous 30 days Monday, February 20, 2012 Explanation Unregulated Regulated No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D ❑ D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) r s' D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined ❑ 0 The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help 61 (9 ' ` "r �� +'" YC j err �' _ '� t � Ei Leers ❑►r Automated DM maps (short string) E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percent F' ® gall othervalues> 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease ej Greater than 50 percentile decrease E rrr h, rrrrrrrrrr ,,,,,,,,e Display Source Selection J Drawing >, } ❑ ri l 1B B U . w w .,O w Editor T € a? { {Qr Create Nee,,, 1-e °atLffe -- Ground Water -- 10 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase 0 No percentile change g to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease ej Greater than 50 percentile decrease E rrr h, rrrrrrrrrr ,,,,,,,,e Display Source Selection J Drawing >, } ❑ ri l 1B B U . w w .,O w Editor T € a? { {Qr Create Nee,,, 1-e °atLffe -- Ground Water -- 10 Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. ok ti!VES SPIR+IFIIAtaunto rlottev, 17 , Warsaw Logan Oak;F intc R Ta'ppa�h nock Atlantic Bedtle cGt rn ham $alud4 4 u ° White Mane Beach �Welo Unio L taUr a 60`� ; o c Onial Highis a�E,astville P aski oan+xk �' ` F grt He � Virginia 4onyvay, G rth'flr dle Beach n Kingstree, Myrtle Beach 'c Georgetown nerville t! a rr t i c O e e a a 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not ..... — - ....... " Low hrluch Below Belcw Normal love hrluGl l cve� High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 12 USES 351808082374302 TR -065 HC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH C 28.66 2119.00 4J 0 F 28.50 2118,56 � 29.66 2118.66 a z 29.56 L 2117.56 m Q 36.66 aO DO 4J 2117.66 ° 36.56 CU L 2116.56 '0 C C G 31.66 O Jan Feb Feb Feb LO 28 04 11 18 2012 2012 2012 2012 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 12 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.9 2129.9 m Q Q. .0 28 +9 2119.9 4 4 29 +9 2118.9 S d Duo 39.9 2117.9 z 4N31 +9 2118.9 32.9 2115.9 �} 4 33 +$ 2114.9 L Q cu G 34 +$ 211319 M J H C � a 35 +9 L Mar May Jul Sep Now Jan 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 14 SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 NC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT m C 4J 'i 7 +25 Thy Q 7 +39 .... 670 +79 4 7 +35 679 +65 Lo 0 7 +49 679 +69 Qb Qy L m 'i o 7 +45 679 +55 L Q Gi DO 4J 7 59 + 679 +5$ CU 'i � L O *' 7 +55 679 +45 GU m L � 7 +69 679 +49 C Jan Feb Feb Feb +o 28 94 11 18 2912 2912 2912 2912 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 14 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 672 +9 1 6 +0 0LITHWELL) 0 CU � 27 +85 4J 6.5 671 +5 347 +15 � ° 7 +9 671 +9 G 347 +19 } L) C 7 +5 679 +5 z L M -0 8 +9 L7 679 +9 r C] 347 +99 �} L 8 +5 669 +5 —4 4J C6 (U L L Gi 4� ° 9 +9 346 +95 669 +9 +} s -J r H G 9.5 221 668 +5 0 Mar May Jul Sep Now Jan au DO CL7 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 346 +99 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) 15 USES 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITHWELL) 27 +85 e« 347 +15 � ° 27 +9$ 347 +19 347 +$5 L7 28 +99 C] 347 +99 28 +95 (U L 346 +95 L 28 +19 au DO -W 346 +99 rcu s 28 +15 L 0 346 +85 cu -W .0 28 +29 +o i 346 +8$ Q ° Jan Feb Feb Feb L 28 94 11 18 ca 2912 2912 2912 2912 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec 12, 2998) 15 UPS 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITH'W at) 25 +99 359 +99 4 GF 4} 25 +59 349 +59 N � G y 26 +99 349 +99 } Z G] 26 +59 348 +59 27 +99 348 +99 +4 r r-I ° � 27 59 + 347 +5$ y r-I 28 +99 347 +$$ L G: a= G M >- 28 +5$ N Mar Nay Jul Sep Now Jan r- 0 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 0 0 — Daily naxinun depth to water level Daily nininun depth to water level --Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec 12, 2998) (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 17 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) C GU 2.80 Q. CU 53.40 3.00 53.20 z 3.20 (U L 53.00 m L CU (U 4J 3.40 D L O 52.80 CU 4J m 4J CL 3.60 C 52.60 L Jan Feb Feb Feb 28 04 11 18 2012 2012 2012 2012 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 17 18 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1.0 55.0 Q- 0 ry 2 +9 y4 *0 S 0% 3.9 #$ 52.0 #$ 51.0 #09t9 } CU r -W 7.9 49.0 rl L C6 p 8.0 Gi P 48.0 s N 9.0 C o Mar Nay Jul Sep Now Jan 2911 2911 2911 2011 2911 2912 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007) 18