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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday February 13 2012.msg_20120214Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, February 14, 2012 10:31 AM To: Linwood Peele; Donna Jackson Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, February 13, 2012 NC Drought advisory group, Inspection of the precipitation totals maps for North Carolina ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http: / /www.nc- climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure) indicates very little to no rainfall across the state during the past week. The only area indicated as having received 0.5+ inch rainfall is short reach of the central Outer Banks in vicinity of Buxton. The two areas noted in previous weeks as having distinct streamflow conditions have become less so during the past week. While the most widespread area of normal streamflow conditions continues to be in the mountains region, some streamgages are now depicted in the below - normal ranges. From the western Piedmont to the coast, below - normal streamflow conditions are indicated at most USGS streamgages. In the eastern half of the state, streamflow conditions are widespread in the 'less than 10th percentile" range and record low for the calendar date. Examination of the 28 -day average streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) continues to indicate widespread "less than 10th percentile" and record low (calendar date) conditions from the southern Coastal Plain northward into the northeastern Piedmont and northwest Coastal Plain. As of February 12 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 59 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests continuing declines in overall streamflows relative to 52 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells continue to be depicted on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) in the normal range for 8 wells, continued much below normal (less than 10th percentile) at the Marston well in Scotland County, and record low for the month at the Chapel Hill well in Orange County (functionally dry since late October): • well near Marston in Scotland County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) • well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn), functionally "dry" since late October As noted in previous few weeks, water levels in 2 of the 6 Coastal Plain wells continue to be depicted in the normal ranges. These two wells are located in Pitt and Washington Counties in the central Coastal Plain. Water levels at the remaining 4 wells are depicted in the below - normal range for the Southport well in Brunswick County, and much below normal for 3 wells: • well near Grantham in Wayne County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 351849078163901 &ncd =crn) • well at Comfort in Jones County (http: / /groundwaterwatch. usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345809077301408 &ncd =crn) • well near Elizabeth City in Pasquotank County (http: / /groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn) Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Tuesday morning with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Changes made to last week's release included some D1 expansion across the northeast Piedmont covering parts of the upper Cape Fear, Neuse, and Tar River basins. Concerning this week's release... The continuing decline this past week in streamflow conditions across the eastern half of North Carolina is of great concern given the start of the spring season is now about 5 weeks away. Widespread streamflows in the "less than 10th percentile" range and lower are very visible on both the current real -time and 28 -day average streamflow maps. In the western Piedmont and mountains regions, the streamflows are declining as the dryness pattern noted in the eastern half appears to be expanding to the west. Groundwater levels in the Coastal Plain wells have increased in some of these locations in response some recent rainfall, although the magnitude of increases is variable and water levels at many wells are still depicted in the below - normal ranges. During last week's telecom, the group dealt with the proposed introduction of D3 into the southernmost Coastal Plain, but requested restraint on that introduction for several reasons, including the lack of impacts based on the D3 classification as well as the need to maintain some space for deterioration in future drought maps. As previously discussed, the winter period has historically been a recharge period for the hydrologic system. And given the current conditions noted in the eastern half of the state, this raises serious concerns if no substantial rainfall occurs in the next few weeks. With the continuing below - normal streamflow conditions, the NC group may have to consider potential expansion of D2 further inland if no substantial rainfall occurs in the next week or two. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Rich Tinker, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying draft 1, he made no specific comments concerning North Carolina, but did indicate that D4 has been introduced into southern South Carolina. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 2/14/2012 1200 UTC— Created 2/14/12 13:55 UTC -- Streamflow -- 4: 110,111MITITERIT110111111111 Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap Current conditions... Tuesday, February 14, 2012 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, February 07, 2012 08 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. X10 Lew 1024 5 -7 76 -90 > � ............ - �: High Idol- ranked l M N ch beds ur - ---- ---- -� Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV, mar €Y I r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (February 13 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Feb 06 Current flow (% of) Median Feb 13 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 170 cfs 83 cfs 260 314 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 352 cfs 262 cfs 260 1,019 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 38 cfs 20 cfs 150 136 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 521 cfs 310 cfs 30% 1,019 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 1,920 cfs 1,610 cfs 740 2,170 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 47 cfs 41 cfs 550 75 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 2,020 cfs 1,610 cfs 790 2,030 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 429 cfs 248 cfs 74% 336 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, February 13, 2012 I, SGS 6 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, February 13, 2012 As of February 12 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 59 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 32 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to February 05 (Sunday), the current values indicate continuing declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 52% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 23% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable 1 100 ONN A4, Less than 25th percentile Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -dad? Less than 10th percentile indicated percentile range or love New min forthe clay Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through February 06 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 8 Previous 7 days Monday, February 1, 2012 Previous 30 days Monday, February 1, 2012 Explanation No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined Unregulated Regulated a IM D ❑ 0 The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help 61 (9 ' ` "r �� +'" YC j err �' _ '� t � Ei Leers ❑► Automated DM maps (short string) E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percent F' ® gall othervalues> 10 to 25 percentile increase 10 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase 0 No percentile change g to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease ej Greater than 50 percentile decrease E rrr h, Display LSource Selection Drawing r } _ ' i trial �. 1Q . B I U � w .,Ow E:3 � Editor T € a? { {4' C reate Nee,,, F eatU re cgs" -- Ground Water -- 10 Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not B... ..... — - ..... d. Low hrluGh Below Bel¢w Normal ¢ve hrluGl l �ve� High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 12 USES 351808082374302 TR -065 HC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH 29.66 2118,66 0 29,56 S GF 2117,56 �+ } 3$.$$ z 2117.66 } ;F G] L 'i o 36.56 m F-I L 2116.5$ 11 +. � GU r-I i 31.66 CU +} 2116+$$ L i C G 31.5$ C L Jan Jan Feb Feb ca 21 28 64 11 2612 2612 2612 2612 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 12 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.9 212919 m Q Q. .0 28.0 .... 2119.9 4 4 2919 .... 2118.9 S d Duo 39.9 .... 2117.9 z 31.9 211819 32.9 211519 } cu �} 4 33.0 2114.9 L Q cu G 34.0 211319 M J H C � a 35.0 L Mar May Jul Sep Now Jan 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 14 SGS 3540 x'0803 01 Rte -149 NC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT m C 7.20 670.80 4J m 0 7.25 670.75 F1 Q Cq 7.30 670.70 0 a, Lo Lo 7.35 670.65 z L 7.40 670,60 (U r-I N r-I L G] 7.45 670,55 > �y i 7.50 670.50 CU m 7.55 670.45 C C G O Jan Jan Feb Feb +o 21 28 04 11 2012 2012 2012 2012 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 14 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 672 +9 1 6 +0 0LITHWELL) 0 27 +89 CU � 4J 6.5 671 +5 27 +85 of ^i 347 +15 7 +9 671 +9 G *' } L) C 7 +5 347 +19 679 +5 z L Lo z a+ M -0 8 +9 28 +99 679 +9 r (U L 347 +99 m �} L 8 +5 669 +5 —4 4J C6 L L Gi 4� ° 9 +9 > 669 +9 +} s -J r H G•5 668 +5 0 346,99 Mar May Jul Sep Now Jan *' CL7 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 r+}o — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data 346 +85 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) 15 USES 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITHWELL) 27 +89 a+ 347 +29 27 +85 of ^i 347 +15 27 +99 *' 347 +19 > 27 +95 Lo z a+ 347 +95 m 28 +99 (U L 347 +99 m 28 +95 CU L 346 +95 > to 28 +19 �1 346,99 L *' 28 +15 r+}o r 346 +85 C6 4� 28 +29 7 ° Jan Jan Feb Feb L 21 28 94 11 ca 2912 2912 2912 2912 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec 12, 2998) 15 UPS 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITH'W at) 25.99 359.99 4 4} 25,59 349,59 N � G y 26.99 349.99 } Z G] 26,59 348.59 L t � O 27.99 348.99 +4 r ° � 27 59 , 347.5$ y � L 28.99 347,99 L Q +} G M >- 28,5$ N Mar Nay Jul Sep Now Jan r- 0 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 0 0 — Daily naxinun depth to water level Daily nininun depth to water level --Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27.89 ft Dec 12, 2998) (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 17 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) 2.00 C 54.00 CU 0 4y 2.50 ay d 53.50 z 3.00 (U L m L (U 53.00 CU 4 3.50 L CU 4J m 52.50 C CL 1 L 4.00 0 Jan Jan Feb Feb 21 28 04 11 2012 2012 2012 2012 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 17 18 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1.0 55.0 Q- 0 ry 2 +9 y4 *0 S 0% 3.9 21 5 #$ 52.0 41 0 5.0 51.0 0 �- #09t9 } CU �} r -W 7.9 49.0 rl L C6 p 8.0 Gi P 48.0 s N 9.0 C o Mar Nay Jul Sep Now Jan 2911 2911 2011 2011 2911 2912 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007) 18