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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday February 06 2012.msg_20120207Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, February 07, 2012 11:21 AM To: Linwood Peele; Donna Jackson Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, February 06, 2012 NC Drought advisory group, Inspection of the precipitation totals maps for North Carolina (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip/ or http: / /www.nc- climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure) indicates mixed amounts across the state during the past week. Amounts in the range of 0.5 to 1 inch occurred in a band across the length of the state with exception of parts of the upper Cape Fear and Neuse River basins in the northeast Piedmont as well as the lower Cape Fear and Lumber/Waccamaw River basins in the southern Coastal Plain. Higher totals exceeding an inch are indicated for part of the north Coastal Plain near the Albemarle Sound, a small area in the upper Yadkin basin, and most of the Little Tennessee and Hiwassee River basins. As noted in previous weeks, streamflow conditions indicated on the current real -time streamflow map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap) continue to indicate two distinct regions across the state. The boundary between these two regions continues be a line across the Piedmont region; however, this boundary appears to be shifting westward as the dryness pattern in the Coastal Plain expands across the Piedmont. Since last week, this line has shifted westward about 1 to 2 counties and currently runs from the Cleveland /Gaston Counties border northeast towards Stokes County. West of this line, streamflow conditions continue to be predominantly in the normal ranges. Streamflow conditions east of this same line are generally in the below - normal ranges. One difference from last week is that streamflows in the northeast Coastal Plain are currently indicated in the normal ranges, in response to the rainfall within that area during the past week. A widespread area of well below - normal streamflow conditions in the 'less than 10th percentile" range continues to be visible from the upper Cape Fear River basin east into the upper Tar River basin. Inspection of the 28 -day average streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) continues to indicate widespread "less than 10th percentile" conditions from the southern Coastal Plain northward into the northeastern Piedmont and northwest Coastal Plain. As of February 06 (Monday), streamflow conditions indicate 52 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests declines in overall streamflows relative to 34 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells are depicted on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) in the normal range for 8 wells, and continued much below normal (less than 10th percentile) for Chapel Hill well in Orange County and the Marston well in Scotland County: • well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: / /groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn), functionally "dry" since late October • well near Marston in Scotland County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) Water levels in 2 of the 6 Coastal Plain wells continue to be depicted in the normal ranges. These two wells are located in Pitt and Washington Counties in the central Coastal Plain. Water levels are depicted in the below - normal range for 3 wells in the southern and northern Coastal Plain regions. Water levels for the inland Coastal Plain well in Wayne County are depicted at the bottom of the much below - normal range near record low for the month of February (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 351849078163901 &ncd =crn). Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. Changes made to last week's release from the previous week included some D1 /D2 expansions in the southern Coastal Plain as well as DO expansion across the central Piedmont, based on growing precipitation deficits. Concerning this week's release... As discussed last week, the 30 -day percent of normal precipitation in the northeast Piedmont is in the 25 to 50 range with a hint of 10 to 25 possibly coming into effect. This area corresponds to the widespread "less than 10th percentile range" in streamflows from the upper Cape Fear River basin east towards the upper Tar River basin. The combination of these indicators mayjustify a deterioration in drought category in parts of this area. It has been suggested (Seymour, NWS Wakefield) that "status quo" be applied for northeast NC due to the precipitation the past week and corresponding responses in the hydrologic condition within that area. Based on the last week' precipitation pattern, the use of "status quo" appears to be appropriate elsewhere. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. Rich Tinker, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release. In the "preliminary thoughts" email(s), he has made no specific comments concerning the Carolinas region. • r, 1 . ffmm ' . USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): httD:Hdrouaht.un1.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the State Climate Office of North Carolina at http: / /www.nc- climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ deparlure," sm� so File Edit View Favorites Tools Help X 4onvert - .�Select x Search - ......................................... ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Favorite s indows Marketplace Op. Windows Media 1A Free Hotmail OL uv-02111000 Cu C u stom ize Links ks ........... . U SC, S Borth C... Internal Ham USGS North C... AHPS Precipit ... !AN State Clam... X Select, Layers: Precipitation: I 0'f Estimate (7) Difference from normal 0 Percent of normal 0 Geographic: Y County lines LJ Cities J Rivers and Streams W HUC-6 L 10 HUC-8 Transportation: Highways -- Strearnflow -- Internal users loc,,in INWITITWITIM 0 Internet I Protect Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: httD:Hwaterwatch. usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma Current conditions... Tuesday, February 07, 2012 08 :30ET Last week's conditions... Tuesday, January 31, 2012 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (February 06 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Explanation - Percentile classes Flow Jan 31 , flow (% of) X10 Low 10-2-4--'j �7 76 -90 >0 � ...... � ............ - Hi I�ol- ranked jr N m ed ur - ---- ---- -- ebw P trnal A,,we %asU)a, , _ mar €Y,,aI When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (February 06 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Jan 31 Current flow (% of) Median Feb 06 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 155 cfs 170 cfs 550 308 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 420 cfs 352 cfs 38% 932 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 26 cfs 38 cfs 300 125 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 422 cfs 521 cfs 470 1,100 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 2,150 cfs 1,920 cfs 820 2,340 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 52 cfs 47 cfs 58% 81 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 2,380 cfs 2,020 cfs 920 2,200 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 337 cfs 429 cfs 1250 344 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: 6 Monday, February 06, 2012 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, February 06, 2012 As of February 05 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 52 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 23 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to January 29 (Sunday), the current values indicate declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 34% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 12% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable 1 il Less than 25th percentile Less than 10th percentile New min forthe clay Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day indicated percentile range or love ONN AN Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through February 06 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long-term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html Previous 7 days Monday, February 0, 2012 Previous 30 days Monday, February 0, 2012 Explanation No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined Unregulated Regulated a IM 0 ❑ 0 The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit `view Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools ''w?�indow Help _ - is , r` ,77 € ' ]y R F f & 4' L _I 00 Editor ®ate �� :` ®aT 11i' El Leers ❑►r Automated DM maps (short string) E ❑ r- �a ® gall othervalues> 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E K Source Selection Display i0 � iii, � Drawing r } _ ❑ ' Arial 7B B I U _+ 10 5 to 10 p•ercentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase No percentile change 4 to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 p•ercentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E K Source Selection Display i0 � iii, � Drawing r } _ ❑ ' Arial 7B B I U _+ 10 -- Ground Water -- Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. ok WES VIRGINIA � ev' " .. 5tauflto rl 17 ; U�iarsaw : F Logan Oak �Ta�ppahanriock Atlantic pinta Deckle m Saluda' 4 ldkrnha ° White Mane Beach �elc Unio L' bar b k 60 ,� �, c nrat Hsi (Eastville c. P askr can 14 ort Virginia 4onyvay, G rth'flr dle Beach n Kingstree, Myrtle Beach 'c Georgetown nerville t! a rr t i c O e e a a 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ....... " Low hrluch Below Belcw Normal love hrluGl l cve� High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 12 USES 351808082374302 TR -065 HC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH C 29.66 2118.00 4J 0 F 29.50 2117,56 � 36.66 2117.66 a z 36.56 CU (U L 2116.56 m Q 31.66 aO DO CU 4J 2116.66 ° 31.56 CU L 2115.56 '0 C C G 32.66 L Jan Jan Jan Feb ca 14 21 28 04 2012 2012 2012 2012 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 12 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.9 212919 m Q Q. .0 28.0 2119.9 4 4 2919 2118.9 S d Duo 39.9 2117.9 z 31.9 2118.9 4J M 32.9 211519 2 �} 33.0 2114.9 L C6 Q cu G 34.0 211319 M J H C � a 35.0 L Mar May Jul Sep Now Jan 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 14 SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 7.25 670.75 7.30 670.70 7.35 670.65 7.40 670.60 DO C4- 7.45 670.55 CL C 7.60 670.40 L Jan Jan Jan Feb 14 21L 28 04 2012 2012 2012 2012 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 14 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 672 +9 1 6 +0 0LITHWELL) 0 CU � 27 +89 4J 6.5 671 +5 347 +29 � ° 27 +85 7 +9 671 +9 G 347 +15 } L) C 7 +5 679 +5 z L M -0 8 +9 347 +1$ 679 +9 r x C] �} L 8 +5 669 +5 —4 4J C6 L Gi 4� ° 9 +9 669 +9 +} s -J r H G 9.5 668 +5 0 28 +95 Mar May Jul Sep Now Jan CL7 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 -W — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data 346 +95 Period of approved data (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local number WK -284, NCDENR Lake Wheeler Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County (http: // groundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 354404078403101 &ncd =rtn) 15 USES 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITHWELL) 27 +89 e« 347 +29 � ° 27 +85 347 +15 347 +1$ L7 27 +95 x C] 347 +95 28 +99 (U L 347 +$$ L 28 +95 au DO -W 346 +95 rcu s 28 +19 L 0 346 +9$ cu -W .0 28 +15 +o i 346 +85 Q ° Jan Jan Jan Feb L 14 21 28 94 ca 2912 2912 2912 2912 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec 12, 2998) 15 UPS 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITH'W at) 25.99 359.99 4 4} N 25,59 349,59 � y 26.99 349.99 G } G] Z 26,59 348.59 L 27.99 348.99 +4 r ° r1 � 27,59 347.5$ y L r-I 28.99 347,99 L Q G +} M >- 28,5$ N Mar Nay Jul Sep Now Jan r- 0 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2912 0 ca — Daily naxinun depth to water level Daily nininun depth to water level --Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27.89 ft Dec 12, 2998) (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 17 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) 2.00 C 54.00 CU 2.50 53.50 m 3.00 z 53.00 (U L m —4 = 3.50 CU L (U D 0 4J 52.50 L 4.00 CU 4J m 4 CL 52.00 L 4.50 0 Jan Jan Jan Feb 14 21 28 04 2012 2012 2012 2012 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 17 18 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1.0 55.0 Q- 0 ry 2 +9 y4 *0 S 0% 3.9 #$ 52.0 41 0 5.0 51.0 0 �- #09t9 } CU �} r - 7.9 49.0 rl L C6 p 8.0 Gi P 48.0 s N 9.0 C o Mar Nay Jul Sep Now Jan 2911 2911 2011 2011 2911 2912 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007) 18