20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday December 19.msg_20111220

Strickland, Bev
From:
John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov]
Sent:
Tuesday, December 20, 2011 11:31 AM
To:
Linwood Peele
Cc:
Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov;
david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke -
energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov;
jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov;
jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov;
Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov;
neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov;
richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov;
todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov;
Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov;
woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey;
Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody
Subject:
USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, December 19
NC Drought advisory group,
"All we want for Christmas is a drought -free year ...a drought -free year ...[to] see my drought -free year"
• 4: 4 all
Examination of the precipitation totals map (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /) reveals another week of little to no rainfall for
most of North Carolina. South and east of a distinct line running from Union County to Dare County, the map indicates no
rainfall during the past 7 days, continuing a deepening dryness that is affecting streamflows within the area. North and
west of this line, rainfall totals were primarily less than 0.5 inch. Only parts of the upper Cape Fear and Neuse River
basins are indicated as having received at least 0.5 inch rainfall during this period.
The effects of no precipitation during the past week are visible on the current real -time streamflow map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap), particularly on streamflows in the southern and central
Coastal Plain. An expanding area of below - normal streamflows with several USGS gages in the 'less than 10th
percentile" range and record -low for calendar date are depicted in the southern Coastal Plain. Streamflows at the USGS
gage on Black River near Tomahawk in Sampson County are at the 1 percentile (record low) for the calendar date
( http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /uv ?site no= 02106500). A second area of expanding below - normal streamflow
conditions is the Broad River basin and lower Catawba basin in Mecklenburg County. The only widespread area with
streamflow conditions currently in the normal range is the mountains region into parts of the northern tier within parts of
the upper Cape Fear and Neuse River basins.
As of December 18 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 36 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles
for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage
suggests declines in overall streamflow relative to 5 percent just a week ago.
Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells depicted on the Climate Response
Network in North Carolina (http://ogwOl.er.usgs.gov/crn/StateMaps/NC.html) indicate water levels in the normal range for
7 wells, above normal for one well, and much below normal for 2 wells:
• well near Marston in Scotland County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn)
• well at Chapel Hill in Orange County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites. asp ?S = 355522079043001 &ncd =crn), functionally "dry" since late
October

The water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain continue to be depicted in the normal range for 4 wells and continued
below normal for the 2 wells:
• well near Grantham in Wayne County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn)
• well near Elizabeth City in Pasquotank County
(http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn)
Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Changes to last week's map expansion of the DO across parts of the northern as well as some DO trimming in the western
Piedmont, based on recent precipitation patterns.
Two areas that may need some consideration for adjustments to the drought depictions:
(1) Adjustment of the D1 in the southern Coastal Plain may be warranted with some expansion to cover parts of Robeson,
Pender, and New Hanover Counties.
(2) Adjustments for parts of the Broad River basin may be justified in early January with a return to expanded DO if no
substantial precipitation occurs the remainder of December.
Suggest "status quo" elsewhere for this week's release.
Comments and opinions welcome...
Thanks.
JCWeaver
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE
USGS North Carolina Water Science Center
3916 Sunset Ridge Road
Raleigh, NC 27607
Phone: [phone] H Fax: [phone]
Mobile: [phone]
E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov
Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/
****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **
-- USDM draft (if available) --
As of Monday evening, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina.
Matthew Rosencrans, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is again the
USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying the draft 1 release, he made no specific comments
concerning the Carolinas region.

USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM
releases):
http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html
-- Observed precipitation --
Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following:
(1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd
(2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/
(3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci
shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at

http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/
North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation
Valid at 12/20/2011 1200 UTC— Created 12/20/11 13:55 UTC
-- Streamflow --
4: I � •* 1 111111111
Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps
at:
httD:Hwaterwatch. usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma
Current conditions...
4

Tuesday, Uecenber 20, 2011 09 :30ET
WIM
MUSIGS
Last week's conditions...
Tuesday, Uecenber 13, 2011 08 :30ET
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box
Explanation - Percentile classes
......,.
X10
Lew
1024 5 -7 76 -90 >
�
............ - �: High Idol- ranked l
M N ch beds ur
- ---- ---- -�
Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV,
mar €Y I r� rm l
When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box

appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage
of mean and median for the calendar date.
Highlighting current flows (December 20 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from
http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ):
Site number
Site name (and County)
Flow Dec 13
Current
flow
(% of)
Median Dec 20
02053200
Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) --
71
cfs
76
cfs
55%
139 cfs
02106500
Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) --
226
cfs
193
cfs
330
582 cfs
02085500
Flat River at Bahama (Durham) --
24
cfs
33
cfs
59%
56 cfs
02096960
Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) --
499
cfs
663
cfs
1010
656 cfs
02115360
Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) --
3,270
cfs
1,910
cfs
110%
1,739 cfs
02152100
First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) --
45
cfs
36
cfs
630
57 cfs
03451500
French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) --
1,810
cfs
1,300
cfs
88%
1,480 cfs
03550000
Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) --
197
cfs
176
cfs
960
183 cfs
Focusing on the 7-day average flows...
Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest.
Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html
The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, Decenber 19, 2011
I, SGS
6

To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map
(http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below:
Monday, Oecenber 19, 2011
As of December 18 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 36 percent of sites across
North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 7
percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching
new minimum for calendar date.
Compared to December 11 (Sunday), the current values indicate declines in overall streamflow conditions during course
of the past week, considering 5% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 2% of sites were below 10th
percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date.
Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at:
http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable

1
f
Less than 25th percentile
Less than 10th percentile
New min forthe clay
Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day
indicated percentile range or love
ON
AN
Date
Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for
the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through December 19 (Monday). These maps are intended to
provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages)
that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via
the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below.
http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html
8

19
If
M
Previous 7 days
Monday, December 1, 2011
auk
H
AI
Previous 30 days
Monday, December 1, 2011
%
1'
Explanation
Unregulated
Regulated
No - No Drought ( >30 percentile)
DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile)
D
❑
D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile)
D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile)
r
s'
D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile)
D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile)
n/d - Not determined
❑
0
�1d1ll \Y
III ■
t ;h
t4��'s Ski
!+ Ago,

The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period
from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last
week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median
percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the
median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles
indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map).
File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help
Ei Leers
❑► Automated DIVI maps (short string)
E] ❑1 (weekly change in 7 -day median percen
® gall othervalues?
10 to 25 percentile increase
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greater than 50 percentile decrease
E
P9
Display Source
5 to 10 percentile increase
0 to 5 percentile increase
0
No percentile change
h" trial
g to 5 percentile decrease
5 to 10 percentile decrease
10 to 25 percentile decrease
25 to 50 percentile decrease
Greater than 50 percentile decrease
E
P9
Display Source
S election
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13 p' III,
Drawing
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-- Ground Water --
10

Please visit the North Carolina Real -Time Network page at
http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= rtn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on
ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina.
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Logan pap Ta,ppa�h riook Atlantic
inta
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o �,� Gsxanial Heigh t aE,astville
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n
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'c
Georgetown
nerviile t! a rr t i c
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7
Explanation - Percentile class
�.
......ee __
New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not
"Bel' ..... — - ....... "
Low hrluch Below ","Bel' Normal l cve hrluGl l cve� High Ranked
Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water
data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw
(MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County
(http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw)
11

12
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351808082374302
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ca
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2611
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2611 2611
- - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - --
0 Measured depth to
water level — Depth to water level
12

(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13
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351 0808237430
TR -065
(SIC -144) AT
BLANTYRE, HC
(RE OLITH
a
27.9
212919
m
Q.
.0
28.0
2119.9
4
2919
2118.9
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4
33.0
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211319
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35.0
L
Jan Mar
Nay
Jul
Sep Nov
2911 2911
2911
2911
2911 2911
— Daily nean depth to
water level Period of provisional
data
Period of approved data
(WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County
(http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to
qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319)
13

14
SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI
7.00
671.00
CU
Q.
7.20
670.80
7.40
670.60
0
L
CU
7.80
670.20
L
4J
CU
4J
4J
CL
8.00
670.00
C
Nov Dec Dec Dec
26 03 10 17
2011 2011 2011 2011
---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ----
14

(EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local nurnborVVK'284. NCOENR Lake VVhoo|or Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
ROTE: Effective December 13, 2011, the LakeTTheeler Research Station observation well in T-Take County will be used
in lieu of the Chapel Hill well in Orange County. Water levels at the Chapel Hill well () have been dry since latter October
15
SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI
0
CU
4J
6.5
671.5
7.0
671.0
4J
M
8.5
669.5
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CU
9.0
669.0
9.5
224
668.5
L
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011
— Daily nean depth to water level — Period of provisional data
— Period of approved data
(EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local nurnborVVK'284. NCOENR Lake VVhoo|or Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County
ROTE: Effective December 13, 2011, the LakeTTheeler Research Station observation well in T-Take County will be used
in lieu of the Chapel Hill well in Orange County. Water levels at the Chapel Hill well () have been dry since latter October
15

16
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- - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - --
- Depth to water level
— Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec
12, 2998)
16

UPS
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Jan Mar Nay Jul Sep Now
r-
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Ly L
ca
— Daily naxinun depth to water level
M
Daily nininun depth to water level
52 +2$
--Daily nean depth to water level
Period of approved data
Period of provisional data
Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27 +89 ft Dec
12, 2998)
+0
(COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County
( http:/ /waterdata.usas.aov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &aaencv cd =USGS &referred module =sw
17
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17

18
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(NC-160)
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Jan
Mar
May
Jul
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2011
2911
2911
2911
2911 2911
— Daily
nean depth to water level
Period
of approved data
Period
of provisional
data
— Lowest
recorded water
level
prior to
MY2011 (8.97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007)
18