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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday December 12.msg_20111213Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 11:03 AM To: Linwood Peele Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, December 12 NC Drought advisory group, Examination of the precipitation totals map (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /) reveals another pattern of "haves and have nots" in coverage across North Carolina during the past week. Widespread totals of 0.5+ inch are noted for the western Piedmont and mountains regions, and totals exceeding 2 inches were particularly common along the Tennessee border. Little to no rainfall occurred in the southeastern Piedmont, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain regions, further deepening the dryness pattern that has been recently noted for these areas. The effects from previous weeks' precipitation remain evident on the current real -time streamflow map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). Widespread normal and above normal streamflow conditions are in effect from the mountains into the western Piedmont then across the northern tier into the Triad region. Further east, a growing area of below - normal streamflow conditions has become more visible, particularly across the central Coastal Plain. Inspection of the 28 -day average streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) continues to indicate mostly normal and above - normal conditions across the western half of the state while streamflow conditions in the normal ranges are mixed with some isolated occurrences of below - normal conditions in the upper Neuse /Tar basins and southern Coastal Plain. As of December 11 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 5 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests very minor declines in overall streamflow relative to 2 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells depicted on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) indicate water levels in the normal range for 6 wells, above normal for two wells, and continued much below normal for 2 wells: • well near Marston in Scotland County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) • well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn) Last week's conditions summary included comments about concerns that have recently been expressed concerning the responsiveness of the Chapel Hill well during extended dry periods, particularly when the water level is approaching the well depth. A check of the water level hydrograph indicates the well has been functionally "dry" since late October (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nwis /uv ?cb 72019 =on &format =qif default &period= 120 &site no= 355522079043001). Effective today (December 13, 2011), plots showing the water levels at the Lake Wheeler Research Station observation well (local number WK -284) will be used in lieu of the water -level plots for the Chapel Hill well. Because the water level is currently about 7 feet above the well bottom, examinations of the water levels at this well on a weekly basis will be more meaningful in helping to summarize the current conditions. The water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain continue to be depicted in the normal range for 4 wells and continued below normal for the 2 wells: • well near Grantham in Wayne County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn) • well near Elizabeth City in Pasquotank County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn) Draft 1 for this week's release was available as of Monday afternoon with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Changes to last week's map expansion of the DO across the southern and central Coastal Plain based on the 30- and 90- day percent of normal precipitation. The USDM author for this week's release hinted at the possibility of improvements in those areas where the recent rainfalls have occurred, but is waiting to hear from the NC drought group before making any changes. One change that has already been suggested (from Pat Tanner, NWS Greenville - Spartanburg) is some DO trimming north of the Catawba River in the western Piedmont. In the eastern half of the state, the lack of rainfall is deepening the dryness that was acknowledged in last week's DO expansion across the central Coastal Plain. However, no expansion of DO was made across the northern Coastal Plain where conditions appear to be similar. Water levels at the USGS observation well near Elizabeth City in Pasquotank County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn) have been on a steady decline since mid October. The NC group may need to consider further DO expansion to cover the northern Coastal Plain. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address -- http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov/ ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Monday afternoon, draft 1 for this week's version was available with no changes yet indicated for North Carolina. Matthew Rosencrans, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is the USDM author for this week's release. In the email accompanying the draft 1 release, he made the following comments concerning the Southeast region: Southeast - Some deterioration across northern AL and southwestern Alabama, with some improvement central Alabama (30 and 60 day PnP, SPI blends) with some improvement across Northern GA and southern Appalachians (a 1/2 - 1 -cat due to rains of 1 -2 inches). Could have gone further north into SC and NC, but want to wait for the Teleconference tomorrow to get the finer details. USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): http: / /drought.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe= precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http : / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 12/13/2011 1200 UTC— Created 12/13/11 13:55 UTC -- Streamflow -- 4: I � • Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: httD:Hwaterwatch. usas.aov/ classic / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cma Current conditions... 4 Tuesday, Uecenber 13, 2011 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, Uecenber 06, 2011 08 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. X10 Lew 1024 5 -7 76 -90 > � ............ - �: High Idol- ranked l M N ch beds ur - ---- ---- -� Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV, mar €Y I r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (December 13 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Dec 06 Current flow (% of) Median Dec 13 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 99 cfs 71 cfs 630 113 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 337 cfs 226 cfs 40% 570 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 16 cfs 24 cfs 35% 69 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 669 cfs 499 cfs 760 653 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 3,660 cfs 3,270 cfs 1620 2,020 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 41 cfs 45 cfs 750 60 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 1,750 cfs 1,810 cfs 1060 1,710 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 144 cfs 197 cfs 93% 212 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, Decenber 12, 2011 I, SGS 6 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, Oecenber 12, 2011 As of December 11 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 5 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 2 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to December 04 (Sunday), the current values indicate very minor declines in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 2% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 0% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable 1 f Less than 25th percentile Less than 10th percentile New min forthe clay Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day indicated percentile range or love ON AN Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through December 12 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 8 Previous 7 days Monday, December 12, 2011 Previous 30 days Monday, December 12, 2011 Explanation No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined Unregulated Regulated a IM D ❑ 0 The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit `view Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help Ei Leers ❑►r Automated DM maps (short string) E ❑d =I �a ® gall othervalues? 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease E US Mr `71 P9 Display Source Selection .... P eY 1 Drawing „> } E:3 pail 1B . B 1 U w _i • -- Ground Water -- 10 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase No percentile change g to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greater than 50 percentile decrease E US Mr `71 P9 Display Source Selection .... P eY 1 Drawing „> } E:3 pail 1B . B 1 U w _i • -- Ground Water -- 10 Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. ok WES SP�1R+SINIA � �Im�rl4ite�v' � � � LJnt4 171 Ul7arsauu Lo an .� 9 Oak C ., ,I< Ta,ppaanncd< Atlantic Bedtle into, Salud$ ° ¢White Mane Beach �Welo U�nio, L' lour a BOa1� f 0 o I i snial -kiigh E,ashrille P askin Q n01 ark Ne Virginia 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ..... d. Low hrluch Below Bel¢w Normal l ove hrluGl l cve� High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 12 USES 351808082374302 TR -065 HC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH C 33.49 '-� 2113.69 33,66 y CU 2113.49 � 33.8$ d } LO tF y 2113.29 4} 34,99 (y _ m '-J 2113.$$ 41 34.29 Gi } CU 2112.89 L ° 34.49 CU 2112.69 c G 34.6$ L Now Nov Dec Dec ca 19 26 93 19 2911 2911 2911 2911 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 0 Measured depth to water level — Depth to water level 12 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.9 212919 m Q Q. .0 28.0 2119.9 4 4 2919 2118.9 S d Duo 39.9 2117.9 z 31.9 2118.9 4J M 32.9 211519 } 33.0 2114.9 L Q G 34.0 211319 M J H C � a 35.0 L Jan Mar Nay Jul Sep Nov 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 14 SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 6.00 672.00 CU Q. 6.50 671.50 7.00 671.00 z 7.50 670.50 CU L 8.00 670.00 CU 4J CL C 8.50 669.50 0 Nov Nov Dec Dec 19 26 03 10 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 14 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local nurnborVVK'284. NCOENR Lake VVhoo|or Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County ROTE: Effective December 13, 2011, the LakeTTheeler Research Station observation well in T-Take County will be used in lieu of the Chapel Hill well in Orange County. Water levels at the Chapel Hill well () have been dry since latter October 15 SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 0 CU 4J 6.5 671.5 7.0 671.0 4J M 4J C6 L CU 9.0 669.0 9.5 224 668.5 L Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 — Daily nean depth to water level — Period of provisional data Period of approved data (EASTERN PIEDMONT) Local nurnborVVK'284. NCOENR Lake VVhoo|or Research Station at Raleigh in Wake County ROTE: Effective December 13, 2011, the LakeTTheeler Research Station observation well in T-Take County will be used in lieu of the Chapel Hill well in Orange County. Water levels at the Chapel Hill well () have been dry since latter October 15 16 USES 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITHWELL) C '0 347.45 s 27.69 347.46 , Sy n� 27.65 a, 347.35 27.76 L7 347.36 r-I 27.75 CU L 347.25 (U ^i 00 27.89 r-I 347.29 cu } *' 27.85 CU 347.15 L ° 27.99 CU L 347.19 }' 27.95 Q G Now Now Dec Dec L 19 26 93 19 0 2911 2911 2911 2911 - - -- Provisional data Subject to Revision - - -- - Depth to water level — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (27.89 ft Dec 12, 2998) 16 UPS 3 544040 78403101 WK -284 LAK E' HEELER RS MW-3 S (RE G 0LITH'W at) 25.$$ 35$.$$ USES 353210077153801 PI -532 (NC -160) SIR SIMPSON, N (URFI IAL.) 4 4} C GF N 41 4. 25.5$ r-I 349.5$ OJ � rl e« G 7 26.$$ 52.8$ 349,$$ x 7 26.5$ m 348.5$ }, 3.6$ 27.$$ 348.$$ m 52.6$ �^ z 27.5$ 347.5$ r-I L C6 G: Gi a= G____.. 28.$$ ____. ____ ____. ____. .,._. ____. ____. ____.. ____._ M >- N Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 3.8$ r- 0 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 0 ca M — Daily naxinun depth to water level Daily nininun depth to water level --Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data L Period of provisional data GU Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2$11 (27.89 ft Dec 12, 2$$8) (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usas.aov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &aaencv cd =USGS &referred module =sw 17 USES 353210077153801 PI -532 (NC -160) SIR SIMPSON, N (URFI IAL.) C GU r-I 3.4$ e« 52.8$ }, 3.6$ p 52.6$ �^ z 3.8$ Ly L M 52.4$ L GU +0 4.00 r-I L O 52.2$ GU +4 L � CL 4.2$ C � G] ° 52.$$ CL7 Nov Nov Dec Dec 19 26 $3 1$ 2$11 2$11 2$11 2$11 - - -- Provisional Data Subject to Revision - - -- 17 18 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) O 4ti 1 +0 55+0 Q- 0 2 +9 54 +0 0% 3 +0 53 +0 +$ 52 +0 41 0 5 +0 51 0 +} +$ +09 +9 } �} r - 7 +9 +0 rl L C6 p 8 +9 Gi IJ 48 +0 s H + 0 o Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now 0 2011 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007) 18