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Home My WebLink About20051457 Ver 1_USGS streamflow and ground-water conditions in NC through Monday December 05.msg_20111206Strickland, Bev From: John C Weaver Dcweaver @usgs.gov] Sent: Tuesday, December 06, 2011 12:26 PM To: Linwood Peele Cc: Ashley. E.Hatchell @usace. army. miI; brian.cullen @noaa.gov; Brian. Hai nes @ncdenr.gov; david.lane @ncdenr.gov; debra.owen @ncdenr.gov; eric.seymour @noaa.gov; gagalleh @duke - energy.com; garry_grabow @ncsu.edu; george.mathews @noaa.gov; harold.m.brady @ncdenr.gov; jamie.kritzer @ncdenr.gov; jcweaver @usgs.gov; Jeff.Orrock @noaa.gov; jim.prevette @ncdenr.gov; jucilene.hoffmann @ncdenr.gov; Lara.Pagano @noaa.gov; linwood.peele @ncdenr.gov; Michael .A.Young @saw02.usace. army. miI; michael.moneypenny @noaa.gov; mike.orbon @ncdenr.gov; neelufa.sarwar @ncdenr.gov; Patricia. Tanner @noaa.gov; Peter. Corrigan @noaa.gov; richard.neuherz @noaa.gov; rwall @ncem.org; ryan_boyles @ncsu.edu; sarah.young @ncdenr.gov; todd.hamill @noaa.gov; Tom.Fransen @ncdenr.gov; tom.reeder @ncdenr.gov; tony_dorn @nass.usda.gov; Torey_Lawrence @nass.usda.gov; Vernon. Cox @ncagr.gov; Wayne.Munden @ncdenr.gov; woody. yonts @ncdenr.gov; Brian Fuchs; Allison.Wash @va.usda.gov; Kathleen Carroll; Darin Figurskey; Glenn Carrin; Yonts, Woody Subject: USGS streamflow and ground -water conditions in NC through Monday, December 05 NC Drought advisory group, Examination of the precipitation totals map reveals that little to no rain occurred across much of North Carolina (http:/ /water.weather.gov /precip /) during the past week. Please recall that a storm system was moving across the state this time last week near the USDM cutoff time (7 AM EST Tuesday) resulting in some beneficial totals across parts of the state. Another storm system is currently moving into parts of western North Carolina and is forecast to move across the state over the next few days. The effects from early last week's rainfall continue to visible on the current real -time streamflow map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov/ new / ?m= real &r =nc &w= real %2Cmap). A mix of streamflow conditions are in effect across the state with widespread normal with some above- and below - normal conditions embedded within the mix in smaller areas. Areas of below - normal conditions that need continued monitoring are in parts of the Broad /Catawba River basins as well as the upper Neuse River basin. Inspection of the 28 -day average streamflow map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov/ new /index.php ?m= pa28d &r =nc &w =map) indicates mostly normal and above - normal conditions with some isolated occurrences of below - normal conditions in the upper Neuse /Tar basins and southern Coastal Plain. As of December 4 (Sunday), streamflow conditions indicate 2 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date (see graph below). This percentage suggests improvements in overall streamflow relative to 15 percent just a week ago. Water levels at the 10 Blue Ridge, Piedmont, and Sand Hills observations wells depicted on the Climate Response Network in North Carolina (http: / /ogw01.er.usgs.gov /crn /StateMaps /NC.html) indicate water levels in the normal range for 8 wells and continued much below normal for 2 wells: • well near Marston in Scotland County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 345812079313401 &ncd =crn) • well at Chapel Hill in Orange County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 355522079043001 &ncd =crn) Please be aware that concerns have been expressed here at the USGS North Carolina Water Science Center regarding the responsiveness of the Chapel Hill well during extended dry periods, particularly when the water level is approaching the well depth. A check of the water level hydrograph indicates the well has been "dry" since late October (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nwis /uv ?cb 72019 =on &format =qif default &period= 120 &site no= 355522079043001). Water levels records at this well are considered good, but challenges can potentially be encountered when recording extreme low conditions near the bottom of the well. As previously discussed in the telecoms, water levels at this well are very slow to respond to rainfall effects. The issue here is that no other well with long -term record AND a level of responsiveness suitable for monitoring effects of climatic conditions is available in the eastern Piedmont. Further discussions are continuing about the use of this well and additional information will be forthcoming. The water levels for the 6 wells in the Coastal Plain likewise continues to be depicted in the normal range for 4 wells and continued below normal for the 2 wells: • well near Grantham in Wayne County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 353219077153801 &ncd =crn) • well near Elizabeth City in Pasquotank County (http: // qroundwaterwatch .usgs.gov /AWLSites.asp ?S= 361829076163201 &ncd =crn) Draft 1 for this week's release was not available as of Tuesday morning. Changes to last week's map included 1- category improvements across western North Carolina as well as minor trimming of the DO western extent in the Sand Hills and eastern Piedmont regions. As previously discussed, the transition towards the winter period is characterized by decreases in the evaporative and water - supply demands on the hydrologic system. Discussions during the past month indicate that about the only impact being observed is the lake levels at Falls Lake in the upper Neuse River basin (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /uv ?cb 00065 =on &format =qif default &period= 120 &site no= 02087182). Lake levels at two other impoundments further upstream from Falls Lake remain below their spillway levels due to the persistent below - normal streamflow conditions in this area. Streamflows at the long -term gaging station on Flat River at Bahama (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /uv ?cb 00060 =on &cb 00065 =on &format =qif default &period= 120 &site no= 02085500) have been mostly below normal for the past few months. From the streamflow observations, it appears the current drought depictions are reasonable for this week's depictions. Examination of the 30 -day percent of normal precipitation ( http : / /water.weather.gov /precip /) indicates a growing dryness taking shape across the Coastal Plain with widespread values in the 25 -50 percent range as well as some smaller areas with values in the 10 -25 range within the eastern Coastal Plain. Comments and opinions welcome... Thanks. JCWeaver ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** J. Curtis Weaver, Hydrologist, PE USGS North Carolina Water Science Center 3916 Sunset Ridge Road Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: (919) 571 -4043 H Fax: (919) 571 -4041 Mobile: (919) 830 -6235 E -mail address -- jcweaver @usgs.gov Internet address --.http://nc.water.usgs.gov ****************************** * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** -- USDM draft (if available) -- As of Tuesday morning, draft 1 for this week's version was not available. David Miskus, meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland, is again the USDM author for this week's release. In the "preliminary thoughts" email, he made the following comments concerning the Carolinas region: Southeast: For the 5 -day period (ending 12Z 12/4), little or no precipitation was recorded from Louisiana to Florida & the Carolinas, but rain was edging eastward and expect some light -mod amounts for Days 6 & 7 in the western and northern sections of the Southeast. Last week's USDM (11/29) was dedicated to improvement in this region, so I wouldn't expect much degradation unless rains missed an area last week. DR 11 ti■ kiliLl USDM archive (you can select North Carolina from the drop -down box near the top, a quick way to see the last two USDM releases): htto:H drouaht.unl.edu /dm /archive.html -- Observed precipitation -- Sources of precipitation totals are available from the following: (1) USGS rainfall totals (sorted by county) for the last 7 days at http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe = precip &group kev= county cd (2) State Climate Office of North Carolina at http : / /www.nc - climate.ncsu.edu /mpe departure/ (3) NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/preci shown below pulled from the NOAA NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http: / /water.weather.gov /precip/ North Carolina: Current 7 —Day Observed Precipitation Valid at 12/6/2011 1200 UTC— Created 12/6/11 13:56 UTC -- Streamflow -- Current conditions are depicted as real -time, 7 -day, 14 -day, and 28 -day flows available in the WaterWatch series of maps at: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/classic/?m=real&r=nc&w=real%2Cmap Current conditions... Tuesday, Oecenber 08, 2011 08 :30ET WIM MUSIGS Last week's conditions... Tuesday, Mouenber 29, 2011 09 :30ET When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box Explanation - Percentile classes ......,. X10 Lew 1024 5 -7 76 -90 > � ............ - �: High Idol- ranked l M N ch beds ur - ---- ---- -� Be lbw al P trr� al Al y g % asc.l� aD0VV, mar €Y I r� rm l When viewing the USGS WaterWatch streamflow information, you can hover your cursor over a site and a pop -up box appears with various pieces of information, including the percentile for the current streamflow AND the current percentage of mean and median for the calendar date. Highlighting current flows (December 06 morning) at some selected gaging stations (obtained from http : / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current / ?type =flow ): Site number Site name (and County) Flow Nov 29 Current flow (% of) Median Dec 06 02053200 Potecasi Creek near Union (Hertford) -- 74 cfs 99 cfs 130% 76 cfs 02106500 Black River near Tomahawk (Sampson) -- 212 cfs 337 cfs 73% 460 cfs 02085500 Flat River at Bahama (Durham) -- 18 cfs 16 cfs 340 47 cfs 02096960 Haw River near Bynum (Chatham) -- 1,310 cfs 669 cfs 1230 544 cfs 02115360 Yadkin River at Enon (Yadkin) -- 2,910 cfs 3,660 cfs 1800 2,030 cfs 02152100 First Broad River near Casar (Cleveland) -- 411 cfs 41 cfs 700 58 cfs 03451500 French Broad River at Asheville (Buncombe) -- 8,650 cfs 1,750 cfs 1040 1,690 cfs 03550000 Valley River at Tomotla (Cherokee) -- 823 cfs 144 cfs 930 155 cfs Focusing on the 7-day average flows... Visit the WaterWatch pages at http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?r =nc to get the most recent data for sites of interest. Durations plots for selected individual USGS stations can be accessed at http: / /nc.water.usgs.gov /drought /duration.html The OVERALL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http:Hwaterwatch.usgs.gov /classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w =pa07d nwc %2Cmap) are depicted in the image below: Monday, Houenber 26, 2011 I, SGS 6 To help provide more detail by major basin, the BELOW NORMAL 7 -day average flows by HUC map (http: / /waterwatch.usgs.gov /classic /index.php ?map type =drvw &state =nc) are depicted in the image below: Monday, Houenber 26, 2011 As of December 04 (Sunday), the graph of 7 -day flow percentiles shown below indicates 2 percent of sites across North Carolina have percentiles for 7 -day average flows falling below the 25th percentile for the calendar date. And 0 percent of sites across North Carolina are shown as having 7 -day average flows below the 10th percentile or reaching new minimum for calendar date. Compared to November 27 (Sunday), the current values indicate improvements in overall streamflow conditions during course of the past week, considering 15% of sites across the state were below the 25th percentile and 3% of sites were below 10th percentile and /or reaching new minimum for the calendar date. Below is a graph developed from the 7 -day average flow summary table available at: http: / /waterwater.usgs.gov/ classic / ?m= pa07d &r= nc &w= paO7d %2Ctable 1 f Less than 25th percentile Less than 10th percentile New min forthe clay Percentage of sites in North Carolina with 7 -day indicated percentile range or love ON AN Date Another measure of the streamflow conditions is available from maps of median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for the previous 7 -, 14- 30 -, 60 -, and 90 -day periods updated through December 05 (Monday). These maps are intended to provide some kind of "long- term" index of the streamflow conditions (not available through the USGS WaterWatch pages) that is mapped according to the classification scheme for streamflow used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Map images (via the above URL) showing the median percentiles for 7 -day average flows for previous 7 and 30 days are shown below. http: / /nc. water. usgs .gov /drought/dm- streamflow.html 8 Previous 7 days Monday, December 05, 2011 Previous 30 days Monday, December 05, 2011 Explanation No - No Drought ( >30 percentile) DO - Abnormally Dry (21 to 30 percentile) D1 - Moderate Drought (11 to 20 percentile) D2 - Severe Drought (6 to 10 percentile) D3 - Extreme Drought (3 to 5 percentile) D4 - Exceptional Drought (0 to 2 percentile) n/d - Not determined Unregulated Regulated a IM D ❑ 0 The following ArcMap screenshot shows the change in the median percentiles of 7 -day average flows for 7 -day period from last week (with last week's U.S. Drought Monitor in the background). In other words, at a given site, take last week's median percentile and compare it to this week's median percentile. Sites in red indicate a decrease in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting a decline in streamflow). Sites in blue indicate an increase in the median percentile from last week to this week (suggesting an improvement decline in streamflow). The size of the circles indicates the general range in percentile increase or decrease (note legend to left of the map). File Edit View Bookmarks Insert Selection Tools Window Help Ei Leers ❑► Automated DM reaps (short string) El ® gall othervalues? 10 to 25 percentile increase 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase 0 No percentile change f 5 to 10 percentile decrease y � y 10 to 25 percentile decrease Ei Leers ❑► Automated DM reaps (short string) El ® gall othervalues? 10 to 25 percentile increase 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E =° ?i P9 Display Source Selection .... R eY 1 Drawing „> } ❑ , trial 1B B �€ U — ' _i -- Ground Water -- 10 5 to 10 percentile increase 0 to 5 percentile increase 0 No percentile change g to 5 percentile decrease 5 to 10 percentile decrease 10 to 25 percentile decrease 25 to 50 percentile decrease Greaterthan 50 percentile decrease E =° ?i P9 Display Source Selection .... R eY 1 Drawing „> } ❑ , trial 1B B �€ U — ' _i -- Ground Water -- 10 Please visit the Climate Response Network page at http: / /groundwaterwatch. usqs. gov /StateMapsNet.asp ?ncd= crn &sc =37 (map shown below) for more information on ground -water conditions at selected USGS observation wells in North Carolina. ok ti!VES it "IR1aINIAkaunto ,.hrlQttev 17 "" UUarsauu h Loganl�dk „ �' "•� V I "Ek G A Ta,ppihannock Atlantic i nto " " Bedtle 0 Saluda, 4 �Welo U"nio bUYdharn� Whiteta'ne Beach 60 ; C0ao Eashille P askia �anok" „ it oft Mev!r Virginia 7 Explanation - Percentile class �. ......ee __ New <10 1024 25-75 75-90 >90 New Not Bel' ..... — - ....... " Low hrluch ''""' ""'Bel' Nonnal love hrluGl l oved High Ranked Shown below are the hydrographs at four selected wells across North Carolina... real -time page for USGS ground water data in NC is available at http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /current ?tvpe =qw (MOUNTAINS) NC -144 at Blantyre in Transylvania County (http: / /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?site no= 351808082374302 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 11 12 USES 351 080823 '430 TR-065 (NC-144) AT BLANTYRE, NC (REGOLITH) 33.90 2113.20 CU CU Q. 34.00 2113.10 34.10 2113.00 z Q.- 34.20 2112.90 .0 (U L m L CU (U -p 34.30 2112.80 D 0 L O 34.40 CU -p m 2112.70 CL C L 34.50 0 Nov Nov Nov Dec 12 19 26 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 12 (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 USES 351 0808237430 TR -065 (SIC -144) AT BLANTYRE, HC (RE OLITH a 27.9 212919 m Q Q. .0 28.0 2119.9 4 4 2919 2118.9 S d Duo 39.9 2117.9 z 31.9 2118.9 4J M 32.9 211519 } cu �} 33.0 2114.9 L G 34.0 211319 M J H C � a 35.0 L Jan Mar Nay Jul Sep Now 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data Period of approved data (WESTERN PIEDMONT) NC -193, Piedmont RS near Barber in Rowan County (http: / /waterdata .usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv / ?dd cd =01 72019 00003 &format =imq default &site no= 354057080362601 &set to qscale v =0 &begin date = 20070319) 13 14 SGS 354057080362601 RO-149 (NC-193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (REGOLITI 6.00 672.00 CU Q. 6.50 671.50 7.00 671.00 z 7.50 670.50 CU L 8.00 670.00 CU 4J CL C Nov Nov Nov Dec 12 19 26 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 14 (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) SGS 354057080362601 Rte -149 (SIC -193) PIEDMONT RS 1 NR BARBER (RE OLIT a 355522079 143001 OIL -Q (NC-126) AT CHAPEL 672 +0 m 6 +0 466 +50 c; � 4J 6.5 671 +5 +' 45 +50 466 +00 7 +0 671 +0 G 46 +00 465 +50 } L) C 7 +5 670 +5 z L a, 46 +50 m -0 8 +0 m 670 +0 r �} L 8 +5 669 +5 —I 4J C6 Aug 13 Rug 27 Sep 10 Sep 24 Oct 08 Oct 22 Now 05 +50 How 19 Dec 03 L Gi 4� ° 9 +0 2011 2011 669 +0 +} s J � L r H G 9.5 668 +5 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now Period of approved data CL7 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Period of provisional data — Daily nean depth to water level Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (46 +77 ft Dec 3, 1956) Period of approved data —Bottom of well (neasured 46 +70 ft Nov 30, 2011) (EASTERN PIEDMONT) NC -126 at Chapel Hill in Orange County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 355522079043001 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 15 1J.SGS 355522079 143001 OIL -Q (NC-126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE LITI 45 +00 466 +50 c; +' 45 +50 466 +00 z 46 +00 465 +50 a, 46 +50 465 +00 m L 47 +00 464 CU s Aug 13 Rug 27 Sep 10 Sep 24 Oct 08 Oct 22 Now 05 +50 How 19 Dec 03 CL 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 0 a� a � L 0 Measured depth to water level ca — Depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (46 +77 ft Dec 3, 1956) —Bottom of well (neasured 46 +70 ft Nov 30, 2011) Lowest measurable water level with pressure transducer 15 pGS 3555 079043001 OR -069 (NC -126) AT CHAPEL HILL, H (RE t LITF 43.0 468.5 S 43.5 468.9 44.9 467.5 44.5 467.9 L G� 45.9 466.5 0 s 45,5 466.6 *' 46.9 465.5 } L a 46.5 :_ -_ - -. 465.0 at+ Q G +} M >- 47.9 464.5 N Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now r- 0 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 ca — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2911 (46.77 ft Dec 3, 1956) — Botton of well (neasured 46.79 ft Hoy 39, 2911) Lowest measurable water level with pressure transducer (COASTAL PLAIN) NC -160 near Simpson in Pitt County ( http:/ /waterdata.usgs.gov /nc /nwis /dv/ ?site no= 353219077153801 &agency cd =USGS &referred module =sw) 16 17 USES 353219077153801 PI-532 (NC-160) NR IMP ON, NC (SURFICIAL,) 3.00 53.20 4J CU CU Q. O 3.20 53.00 ai 3.40 z 52.80 (U L 3.60 m L 52.60 CU (U -p D 0 3.80 - 52.40 L CU -P m CL 4.00 C - 52.20 L Nov Nov Nov Dec 12 19 26 03 2011 2011 2011 2011 ---- Provisional Data Subject to Revision ---- 17 18 USGS 353 19077153801 PI -532 (NC-160) NR SIMPSON, N URFI IAL) -4 1 +� 55.0 yy +0 (U 0 2 +9 54 +0 0% 3 +0 53 +0 +$ 52 +0 41 0 5 +0 51 0 +} +$ +09 +9 } r - 7 +9 +0 rl L C6 p 8 +9 Gi IJ 48 +0 s H 0 + o Jan Mar May Jul Sep Now 0 2011 2911 2911 2911 2911 2911 0 — Daily nean depth to water level Period of approved data Period of provisional data — Lowest recorded water level prior to MY2011 (8 +97 ft Oct 23,24, 2007) 18